NFL – Week 16 – Preview & Betting Advice NFL 2012 – Sunday
Bet List + Game Preview – now online
NFL Week 16
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Week 16 – Bet List
Detroit Lions +3.5 $1.93 (pinnacle)
Tampa Bay -3 $1.93 (pinnacle)
New York Giants -2.5 $1.91 (pinnacle)
Pittsburgh Steelers -3 $1.87 (pinnacle)
Buffalo Bills +5 $1.92 (pinnacle)
Carolina Panthers -8 $1.95 (pinnacle) BEST BET
Seattle Seahawks ML $1.97 (sportsbet/iasbet)
A 12.5 point (ties reduce) teaser at 5 dimes pays $1.77 for 4 legs.
I think this one offeres Great Value.
Personally I will be using GB, NE and Denver this way with a number of options as the 4th leg. Here I have used Carolina, im keen on this one.
- 12/23/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 104 Green Bay Packers* -1½ vs Tennessee Titans
- 12/23/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 106 Carolina Panthers* +3 vs Oakland Raiders
- 12/23/2012 1:00 PM NFL Football 111 New England Patriots* -3 vs Jacksonville Jaguars
- 12/23/2012 4:05 PM NFL Football 126 Denver Broncos* -½ vs Cleveland Browns
Lions (v Falcons)
Bucs (v Rams)
Giants (v Ravens)
Steelers (v Bengals)
Bills (v Fins)
Panthers (v Raiders)
Packers (v Titans)
Broncos (v Browns)
Patriots (v Jags)
Colts (v Chiefs)
Jets (v Chargers)
Cowboys (v Saints)
Bears (v Cards)
Skins (v Eagles)
Texans (v Vikings)
Seahawks (v 49ers)
Atlanta Falcons @ Detroit Lions
Detroit Lions +3.5 $1.93 (pinnacle)
Note: This game is Saturday Night US time, Sunday 12:30 AEDST
I’m keen on the Lions here. Atlanta have clinched their division, they will be number 1 or 2 seed and get the first week Bye and home field advantage in at least the first week of the playoffs. I have been on about how over rated the Falcons have been (yet backed them and won easily last week) this year, their stats don’t add up to a 12-2 team. At home they just get it done though. On the road the last 2 years they are 9-8 SU and 7-8-1 ATS. However looking closer, they have had a very soft schedule this year, beating the Chiefs, Chargers and Eagles on the road. Consider the Lions who have the other 3 teams in their Division all 8-6 or better. The Lions have been very poor though. Last week they were abysmal. Their stock can not get much lower. However, we have a team of a 20+ point win against a team off a 20+ point loss. When this occurs we have the very model of over valued against under valued in play. No team is as good or as bad as their previous effort (we saw this in play with the Cardinals last week)
Since week 1 2000, Teams off a 20+ point loss against teams off a 20+ point win are
35-23 ATS (60.3%)
26-15 ATS (63.4%) as dogs
24-11 ATS (68.5%) at home
11-12 ATS (47.8%) on the road
10-11 ATS (47%) as road dogs
16-4 ATS (80%) as home dogs
More short term, Teams off a 20+ point loss against teams off a 20+ point win are
20-8 ATS (71.4%)
12-4 ATS (75%) at home
16-4 ATS (80%) as dogs
8-4 ATS (66%) on the road
8-4 ATS (66%) as road dogs since week 9 2007
13-0 (100%) as home dogs since week 1 2004.
Home Dogs off a 25+ point loss are 41-27-3 since 2001
Atlanta can’t run the ball. They have averaged just 3.9 YPC (#29) their strength is the pass game with 7.1 nYPA (#3). However Detroits defensive strength is their pass D allowing 6.0 nYPA (#14). The Detroit D allows 4.6 YPC (#27) which Atlanta will not be able to exploit. Detroits passing game is #1 in attempts and yards, but #15 with 6.3 nYPA, while the run game has been effective on occasions. They average 4.2 YPC (#16) however have put up 120+ rushing yards in 7 games this year.
This is a prime time game at home and one where the Lions will be looking to bounce back. Thier stats say they should be right in it, they have shown they can be more than competitive with the best teams, but somehow they manage to let them slip away. The trends tell us this is a good situation and they should be more than competitive. I think this is one where the line is the wrong side of 3 and offers value.
New York Giants @ Baltimore Ravens
Giants -2.5 $1.91
The Giants were humiliated by the Falcons last week, getting shut out and beaten by 34 points. The Ravens Ravens dropped their third straight in a 34-17 home loss to Denver that wasn’t as close as the final score indicated. Their last two months shows A loss to the Skins, A loss to an injury hit Steelers, a win that should never have been against the Chargers, a very lucky win over the injury hit Steelers, They beat up the Raiders, were outplayed but snatched a come from behind win over the Browns, with 2 scores in the final 4 minutes, they got smashed by the Texans and then by the Broncos. They have now been out gained in 9 of their past 10 games – yet have managed to win 6 of the 10.
The Ravens have had injuries and could get a few back on D this week, however if the Ravens believed that injuries on defense were their biggest problem right now, they wouldn’t have fired their offensive coordinator last week. The Ravens have been terrible on D against quality opponents. They allowed 34 to the Broncos, 31 to to the Skins, 43 to Houston, 29 to Dallas. Dallas are not even quality.
The Giants continue to be the most up-and-down team in the NFL. It’s hard to believe that the team that was a total no-show in Atlanta last week is the same one that hammered Green Bay and San Francisco earlier this season.
The Ravens are largely mediocre. #17 in nYPA and #18 in YPC on offence while on D they are #19 in nYPA however they do have a rushing D that is ranked #9.
Good passers have been able to dominate the Ravens. The Giants have a pass offence that is #7 in nYPA, while their run game is #9 in YPC. The Giants D can be problematic. When they show up they have one of the best pass rushes around, however when they dont they allow points. They have are #29 in nYPA and #26 in YPC.
I think this matchup is fairly tight, it should come back to which QB plays better. History tells us that Eli Manning, despite his mediocre numbers this season, will be that guy, and that Joe Flacco will not.
Giants in a must win situation, off a loss on the road against a quality opponent. That is the scenario we see them win in time after time in the last few years.
I think they will turn up on both sides off the ball, pressure Flacco and the return of Bradshaw will mean Eli gets more help on offence.
Giants to get it done here 28-23
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
Steelers -3.0 $1.87
Wow. If Cincinnati wins, it clinches a playoff spot. If Pittsburgh wins, it just has to beat the Browns at home in the final week to win a playoff berth.
Pittsburgh took the first meeting back in October, while the Bengals were in the midst of a four-game losing streak. Since then, Cincinnati has won five of six. However looking at who the Bengals heave beaten in that time. They were against a pre bye Giants (horrible spot for the Giants), they beat the Chiefs, the Chargers, The Raiders and the Eagles. That is 4 of the 5 worst teams in the NFL. Throw in the Jags who the Bengals beat earlier in the year and you see a fairly week schedule. The Steelers have inexplicably lost both of their games since Ben Roethlisberger returned from injury though, so we get them here at home in a must win situation against a team that they own. The Steelers are 5-0 SU and ATS their last 5 against the Bengals and an exceptional 10-2 SU and ATS in their last 12.
The Stats say that this should be a close game. Both teams have good defences, the Steelers#2 in nYPA allowed and #4 in YPC allowed while the Bengals rank #6 nYPA and #10 YPC allowed. Steelers offence has been up and down. #16 in nYPA and #26 in YPC, while the Bengals are #19 in nYPA and #13 in YPC.
In the last 2 years off a loss the Steelers are 12-2 SU and 11-3 ATS. One of those was last week. At home post loss under mike Tomlin they are 13-1 SU and 9-5 ATS. in the last 2 years they are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS of a loss at home.
The Steelers have now lost 4 games this year due to turnovers or simple dropped catches. Dallas, Cleveland, Baltimore and Tennessee.
The last time these two met the Bengals jumped to an early 14-3 lead with their ground game having success. The Steelers made the nessesary adjustments and outscored the Bengals 21-3 from that point on.
In a must win situation for both teams, its the battle tested home team that i think will prevail. The Steelers only lose divisional games at home to the Ravens. The Steelers are 10-0 in their last 10 home games against Cleveland and Cincinnati.
Andy Dalton is 0-6 SU and 0-5-1 ATS against the Steelers and Ravens.
This line was 7 last week before the Steelers lost and the Bengals beat the Eagles. We saws it move to 4.5 to open the week and has been bet down to 3. This is an over reaction in my opinion and the 3 offers value.
St. Louis Rams @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tampa Bay -3 $1.93
Tampa Bay was 6-4 and in the thick of the playoff hunt, before losing four straight, and each one worse than the other: a 1-point loss to Atlanta and an 8-point loss at Denver – no shame in either of those defeats to superior foes. But then Greg Schiano’s team lost to the Eagles at home and then got wiped out 41-0 in New Orleans last week. The Rams showed big improvement in the last 6 weeks, a tie and win over the 49ers, being the highlight of their season. However last week they were fairly terrible against the Vikes, just as they were against the Jets post to the 49ers match up.
Tampa Bay have a good offence that is #8 nYPA and #11 in YPC. They come up against a Rams D that is #11 against the pass and #14 against the run. The Bucs pass D is appalling – #32 nYPA however the Run D does rank #1 YPC against. On Offence the Rams are an ordinary #22 in nYPA while they rank #14 in YPC.
I think Doug Martin will be a problem for the Rams. St Louis have given up 213 rushing yards to the Vikes last week and prior to that have let the 49ers (twice) Patriots, Seahawks and Redskins have 140+ rushing yards. I can see the Bucs bringing increased effort here against the Rams, who after last weeks loss are in reality eliminated from the playoff race. St Louis Rams away from home have been dismal for years. Since 2007 they have played 46 road games. 42 were outdoors (their home stadium is indoors). Of the 42 outdoors games they have scored over 20 points just twice. One was this year against the 49ers, however on the whole they are poor outdoors. Just averaging 14.75ppg this year outdoors. As bad as Tampas pass D is, Bradford is not the man to exploit it.
A few trends fit this one.
This year teams off a 20 point+ loss are 13-1 SU as home faves the next week in 2012.
Long term – since 1989 teams off a 30+ point loss are 147-104 (58.5%) the following week.
I like the Bucs simply to outscore the Rams in this one, they can score, i don’t think the Rams can, not even against this Bucs pass D.
Tampa Bay 28-20
Oakland Raiders @ Carolina Panthers
Carolina -8 $1.95
Carolina has won three of its last four after a 2-8 start and has averaged 28 PPG in those four games, which included an impressive 30-20 rout of the 12-2 Falcons two weeks ago. I have been saying all year their stats dont match their output, however they are finally playing the way the stats suggest they should be.
The Raiders’ win over the terrible Chiefs last week snapped a six-game losing streak. But a 5 field goal to nothing score line really does not inspire much confidence about a team that is now travelling from the west coast to east coast. The Raiders have averaged 15.33 ppg in their last 6, not passing 20 points. Meanwhile in their 6 game losing stretch, the Raiders allowed 35.5ppg. They come up against a panthers offence that is scoring at 28ppg in its last 4.
The Raiders are a bad team, and one look at the stats is evidence of that. #26 in points scored, #14 in nYPA #25 in YPC, #31 in points against, #26 in nYPA against, #21 in YPC against.
The Panthers match up well. #4 in nYPA, #12 in YPC, #12 in nYPA allowed and #20 in YPC allowed. Since the bye the Panthers have really emerged, but just failed to win games at critical times.At 5-9 The Panthers are better than their record looks. 7 of their 9 losses are by 7 points or less. They should have beaten the Falcons (1st meeting), Cowboys and Bears. With luck this team could be 8-6 or 9-5.
Oakland are in a bad spot. A road non conference game between divisional games. Carolina meet them in a great spot – Teams playing at home against non conference rivals who have road divisional games the following week are 35-23 (58%) ATS since 2006.
East Coast teams playing West Coast teams at home since 2003 are 85-38 SU and 70-51-2 (57.8%)ATS. When east coast teams play west coast teams at home and the west coast team is off a divisional game, the east coast team is 37-13 SU and 31-18-1 (63%) ATS since 2003. When the Raiders go on the road after a home divisional game and they are playing in a non div game they are 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS in the last 10 years.
It would not suprise me at all to see the Panthers abolutely bow the Raiders out here. I think this line should be 10 at a minimum.
Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins
Buffalo +5 $1.92
Lets revisit this losing trend from last week. Miami as a home favorite since 2003.
They are just 22-21 SU and 9-33-1 (20%) ATS
When the line is greater than 3 they are 4-21 ATS
When the line is greater than 4 they are 2-18 ATS
When the line is greater than 6 they are 1-10 ATS
The Dolphins off a win are 5-12 SU and 7-9-1 ATS since start of 2010 – as fave 3-6 SU and 2-7 ATS off a win as fave. When they are favored at home in a divisional game, the Fins are just 3-9-1 ATS since 2003 – when the line is more than a field goal at home they are 0-6 ATS since 03.
The Bills get a few nice trends in their favour here.
Since week 1 2000, Teams off a 20+ point loss against teams off a 20+ point win are
35-23 ATS (60.3%)
26-15 ATS (63.4%) as dogs
More short term, since week 9 2007, Teams off a 20+ point loss against teams off a 20+ point win are:
20-8 ATS (71.4%)
16-4 ATS (80%) as dogs
8-4 ATS (66%) on the road
8-4 ATS (66%) as road dogs since
Teams that lose 30+ the week before a divisional game are 26-16 (62%) ATS since 2003. Cal it bounce back or look ahead.
The Bills won the first meeting this year, 19-14, in a TNF game back in mid-November. But Buffalo is reeling right now, having lost six of its last eight games, including a 50-17 humiliation at the hands of the Seahawks last week.
Miami Is defensively better allowing just 19.9ppg (#6) from a #16 nYPA ranking and a #6 YPC rank, however they score ar 18ppg (#25) from a #20 nYPA and #20 YPC. The Bills score at similar 20ppg (#19) from a #23 nYPa and #4 YPC offence. Their D is ranked #32 against the run in YPC and #17 in nYPA. Before last weeks disastrous blowout loss to the Seahawks, the Bills D looked to be clicking. They had 8 takeaways in 4 games (only 11 in previous 9 games) and had not allowed more than 20 points in each of those 4 games. Only 1 of their prior 4 opponents managed over 300 yards.
In the first meeting the Dolphins generated just 184 yards and lost a game in which they did not surrender an offensive touchdown. It’s unlikely they’ll keep the Bills out of the end zone for a second time in the same season.
This is a coin flip game, I’m really surprised the line is larger than the obligatory divisional game field goal here, but it is the effect of last weeks games that we are seeing and thus there is value on the under dog. I see both teams having some trouble moving the ball, and I also have trouble seeing the Fins covering more than a FG here even if they do win.
Bills to win an scrappy game 17-16.
San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
Seattle ML $1.97
The Seahawks are no longer just a good team at home. They are no longer just a good Defence. The Seahawks have emerged as a legitimate contender. Yes they have a huge home field advantage, however they are the only team in the NFL with 5 wins against opponents with records currently above .500. Their only loss? to the 49ers. Their D is good but their offence has been fantastic over the past two months.
The Hawks offence is #9 in nYPA and #4 in YPC. Their offence ranks #11 with 25ppg, however it is 33.4ppg in last 7 games (#2), scoring under 23 points just once in that time, over 20 in every game and at home this year they have scored under 24 points just once. Russell Wilson has crept up to No. 8 in the NFL in passer rating at 95.5. He’s thrown 21 TD passes to just nine interceptions on the year. At home, where Seattle is 6-0, he’s got 12 TD passes to just one INT.
Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch have combined for over 200 yards on the ground in their last two games – Lynch is in beastmode almost constantly at present. 241 yards and four touchdowns in the last two weeks, averaging more than 11 yards per carry in each of those games. At home he has averaged 106 yards per game this year, being kept under 100 twice (one was 98 yards). In his last 11 home games he has 11 TDs, an average of 4.9 YPC, and 111.5 yards per game. in 10 of the past 11 he has 98+ rushing yards.
On D the Seahawks allow 15.6ppg (=#1 with the 49ers) at home they have allowed just 11.3ppg this year. The Pass D is #3 in nYPA, while thier rushing D has had some problems allowing 4.5 YPC. That said they are #3 in rushing attempts against. early season it was tough to run the ball on them, but lately they have allowed more yards on the ground – but less through the air. Their D ranks #1 in Yards Per Point Allowed – often the measure of a good D – using this method things such as turnovers and field position to calculate the success of the D in keeping the their opponents off the scoreboard. 1 point allowed for every 19.4 yards. If you want to score 20 points on the Seahawks – you need to have almost 400 yards.
I have pointed out previously how you beat the 49ers. You have to be able to run the ball to beat them. This season they have allowed 100+ rushing yards 4 times for a win (over Seahawks) two losses and a tie. While the ability to stop them running is crucial. In the two games they were kept under 100 rushing yards this year they have lost. Both prior to Kaepernick in at QB. Their 3 losses in 2011 regular season – all sub 100 rushing yards. It is Reported today that Justin Smith is out for 49ers (not official). Cue Beastmode. without Smith, the 49ers might struggle to set the edges of their line, the guy has been a mainstay with 185 straight starts. If Lynch (or Wilson) get to the outside that could equal decent rushing gains, it will also help the Seahawks O line counter the threat posed by sack machine Aldon Smith and help the Wilson pass game.
The 49ers have the #10 nYPA and the #2 rushing game while on D they are #1 in nYPA allowed and #3 in YPC. The switch to Kap at QB looks to have paid dividends and like the Seahawks, they now have a dual threat QB. Like Wilson his passing yardage is minimal, but his accuracy and big plays make him valuable. His running game has been outstanding as well. They routed the Pats last week early before giving up a lot of points late. They also gave up points to the Rams in their first meeting, the Saints and the Giants.
The 49ers didn’t complete a pass longer than 20 yards in the Week 7 meeting against Seattle, their three longest plays from scrimmage all runs by Gore. In Kaepernick’s five starts at quarterback, he has completed 18 passes of 20 yards or more, an average of 3.6 per game. Seattle has the secondary to stop this though. You look at the teams Kaepernick has faced – none have had Pass D’s like Seattle.
The 49ers have allowed 39 sacks so far this season, seventh-most for any team in the league. Seattle’s Chris Clemons has totaled 4.5 sacks over the past four games, exceeding double digits for his third successive season in Seattle. Rookie Bruce Irvin has eight sacks this season, six of which have come at home. At home the Seahawks D line has 20 sacks (total of 35 for year) in 6 games, better than 3 per game. They have 19 sacks in the last 5 games at home. The last time they had a prime time game at home they registered 8 sacks.
Seattle has scored first 10 times this year, they are usually agressive from the start and try big plays early. The 49ers have trailed after the first quarter only twice this season and haven’t won either game. They’ve faced a halftime deficit of seven or more points three times this season and haven’t won any of those games either. If the 49ers fall behind at Century Link field, the loudest stadium in the NFL, on a Sunday night in a playoff type atmosphere, with Kaepernick throwing into one of the best secondaries around, its going to be tough.
The Seahawks are hot scoring 50+ in consecutive games, but the 49ers come off a huge win, travelling across country in prime time and now get prime time again against a divisional rival. Back to back prime time games after winning the game of the year last week is prime position for the let down. The 49ers can lose this and win next week and will still win the division. I think the Seahawks come into this absolutely looking to prove a big point. They have come a long long way since the week 7 loss to the 49ers, they are not the same team. Neither are the 49ers mind you, but the Seattle team will show up big time here.
Seattle to win this one.
New England @ Jacksonville Jaguars
The Pats off a loss are dynamite. 28-5 SU and 24-9 ATS since 2003. After allowing 30+ points they are dynamite. 15-3 SU and 13-5 ATS.
However double digit home dogs are a long term winning trend. Jacksonville are a disgrace though i could not take them, but i dont want to lay 2 TD on the road.
I will look at using the Pats in a multi here.
Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers
Another big line, another game that the Packers will no doubt win but not one i want to take. The Titans should be able to run the ball, keeping the GB offence on the sidelines. But late season games with a Titans team travelling north to play in cold conditions at Lambeau is not a good spot to take the dog. Green Bay could win anywhere from 7 to 20 points. I’ll use them in a multi.
Cleveland Browns @ Denver Broncos
The Skins shredded what has been a decent Browns D last week. They now travel to Denver and it could be more of the same. I get the feeling though that the Broncos will be happy to just win this one. Get up early and cruise leaving the back door wide open for a cover on such a big line. Another one where the home team on the big line wins, but i dont want to bet the line. I’ll take the Broncos in a teaser.
Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs
The Stats say play the Chiefs, but the Colts have to win to make sure of playoffs. The Chiefs have got nothing. Their D can perform on occasions, the offence is appalling On the road, especially outdoors the Colts have been no where near as good and they do come up against Jamaal Charles here who can exploit there porous run D. A lean on the Chiefs to cover, but Indy to do enough to win. no bet.
New Orleans @ Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys won last week against the Steelers, now go in as faves here – we know that is a bad spot for teams over the past few years. The Boys as faves, at home also a bad combination.
I would probably have bet the Saints at +3 but that was snapped up early, i’ll leave it alone though. Lean to the overs in a shoot out.
Minnesota Vikings @ Houston Texans
The Texans are into the playoffs, the Vikings are doing all they can to get AP to 2000 rushing yards and the all time record. The Texans have the Colts on deck next week, the Vikes well, mathematically they can win out and possibly get a playoff spot. but it wont happen. A lean to the Vikes thinking that the Texans will do enough, but they have the D to slow AP (you cant stop him) and do enough to win. The Vikes terrible road record (but got a win last week) means i just cant bet them here. Almost but not quite.
Washington @ Philadelphia
I missed this line early when -4 was available on the Skins. They should account for the Eagles here, they have to win each game and they win the division, i cant see them losing. LeSean McCoy is back for the Eagles and that will go someway to stopping their problems. THe fumble machine running back that they have cost them the game last week, McCoy is much safer. at -7 i want no part of the Skins, but the Eagles really dont inspire any confidence either.
The Redskins TT over 26 has caught my attention here, but I’ll pass.
San Diego Chargers @ New York Jets
Two decent Defences, two horrible Offences. This has under written all over it and the number has plummeted. Both teams might struggle to get to 10. Picking a winner is almost as tough though.
I’ll lean the Jets. Just. tease the unders up for multis if you like, but this one will be ugly.
Chicago Bears @Arizona Cardinals
Two very good Defences, two horrible Offences. Another one that looks unders, however the high probability of defensive scoring has me scared off the total. I was looking at the team total under, but cant quite do it. a low total, looks unders and a home dog of a TD would have you looking at taking the +7 most times according to the stats, but the Cardinals might not score here. I have no confidence in either team to play to the script though. After their breakthrough win last week, the Cards could lay down and get blown out again.
Bears to win.
Further Bets and Previews to follow.
Staking: Over many years Dr Matt has developed something that works for him. You may be different. He largely bets flat stakes, which he recalculates when the bank increases a predetermined size. His normal bet is 2% of bank, but he will bet 2.5% and 3% of bank on occasion – not very often though, only on his best bets when he feels that he has attained significant value. Throughout this NFL season he will highlight which of his bets that he perceives to be the best and will personally be betting at an increased stake. You may have your own staking plans or methods you wish to employ. The only thing we will say is get the best number at the best price.
NYPA – Net Yards Per Pass Attempt. Rather than use average passing yards per game or total passing yards, the use of passing yards per attempt is a more accurate way to measure the effectiveness of each quarterback at getting the ball down field. A quarterback’s average per attempt has an incredibly high correlation to success. Extending this further, Net Passing Yards Per Attempt is a little more advanced and a team-wide indicator. It doesn’t just reward a quarterback for throwing the football. Instead, it also includes the impact of sacks. This is total passing yards, minus yards lost via sacks. But we also divide it by total dropbacks – that is, not just pass attempts, but sacks as well. This formula yields a team’s true average per pass attempt, its Real Passing Yards Per Attempt.
On offence there is a reward for those teams with good offensive lines who don’t allow sacks and complete passes.
On defense there is a reward for generating sacks as well as pass coverage.
YPC – Yards Per Carry. Very simple, but the most effective way of measuring a teams running game. How many yards the team moves the ball on each rushing attempt.
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