Expert Horse Racing Tips | Saturday Oct 3rd 2020 | Reading The Play

Saturday Oct 3rd 2020


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Flemington  R2 #8 SEPTEMBER RUN x 5 units Win $2.50

Won 3 of last 4 incusing latest down straight near length win with sharp closing 200, last two wins have produced multiple winners, well in here under the set weights conditions, looks on the up

Flemington  R4 #4 TOFANE x 5 units Win $2.80

Classy mare being aimed at Everest, close up 3rd first run back in Group 2, gets 3 kg swing now on many here, is 2 from 3 second up, keen she’s ready to win

Flemington  R8 #5 MADAM ROUGE x 4 units Win $5.00

Drew 16 settled well back then super run home running fastest last 1220 and individual splits on the day, draws and maps well here, loves dry tracks and looks the one finishing hard down the middle

Randwick  R1 #11 BETCHA FLYING x 4 units Win $5.50

Run much better than it looked or rated last start, held up for an age before closing late, think it pushes forward from the draw and gets box seat sit on fav / leader and has 6.5kg weight advantage

Randwick  R8 #18 ZEBROWSKI x 2.5 units Win $6.50 2.5 units Place $2.40

Been very good all 3 runs back in quality Group company building to a win, latest against the bias on rail yet still doing best work late, gets big drop in weights, Fav Mugatoo is very good and can win but needs to set new weight carrying record, happy to oppose

Eagle Farm  R3 #4 NEUTRON x 5 units Win $3.10

Returned this prep gelded, just missed first up, ran some smart closing sectionals and final rating, expect further improvement into this, looks slightly weaker race, low gate and likely perfect map

Other notes for today:

Randwick R6
#1 NATURE STRIP (barrier 7) will need to work a little early to get across to lead, his best is very good, second up very good but can put in a bad one; #2 CLASSIQUE LEGEND very sharp late sectionals last start and ran a big rating, expect it can improve further and looks to map and sit closer here, has big finish keen it can win again

#2 CLASSIQUE LEGEND WIN

Randwick R7
Typical Group 1 Randiwck 1600 Epsom with long list of chances, big field but I’m not sure the tempo is overly strong with no real out and out leaders to roll along. #STAR OF THE SEAS obvious chance but does it get caught up on rail in running? #2 MISTER SEA WOLF #6 BRANDENBURG and #13 ROCK all look nice chances. Thought #20 VANNA GIRL could run a nice race at $19 each way, she’s a smart girl won 7 of 11, 4 from 4 at the distance and 1 from 1 second up, first up run was much better than it looked and has no weight

#20 VANNA GIRL Each Way

Quaddie and First 4 Options

First 4

Randwick R7 – wide open race, happy to play small % via flexi bet option

1st: 3, 4, 6, 9, 11, 12, 13, 20

2nd: 3, 4, 6, 9, 11, 12, 13, 20

3rd: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 17, 20

4th: 2, 3, 4, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 17, 20

Quaddie

Flemington

Note, we have a WIN selection in R8 #5 MADAM ROUGE options might be to take two Quaddies, the second option with just #5 as the only selection

R6:  2, 4, 5, 8, 12

R7:  2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9, 11, 14

R8:  2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 12

R9:  2, 3, 14, 18, 19


Staking and Results

Staking

All bets will be recorded as the Fixed price advised at the time of publishing unless otherwise noted (then best tote).

We list recommended staking in Units so as to allow subscribers to tailor their betting outlay to suit their bank.

Results

Results are recorded based on the price quoted, less any deductions should they occur on race day with final fields. The price quoted is based on what is available across the broader market at the time of publishing and direct advice to all subscribers, we do not cherry pick the best price from one or two operators, it is the current market price on offer to all. Should for one reason or another this price change or move quickly at the time our bets are nominated by sms we will in fairness adjust and update the recorded price to what was then more commonly available. We do not quote boosted or inflated offer prices Most weeks we have subscribers report obtaining

Why talk in Units?

Everyone chooses to bet in different bet sizes, from differing betting banks (the personal funds they put aside for betting), some will bet $20 per bet, some $200 per bet. So as to keep things simple and clear for everyone to follow we then talk in bet units. Our advice is to decide what size betting bank (per week) you are comfortable with and then unit size (per bet) is likely to work for you – and then call this your betting unit (divide your total weekly bank by 30 units). Each week on average we will outlay approx. 25 to 30 units for horse racing selections, this will cover our main day Saturday and any additional bets (maybe one or two) during the week (that you may also run the risk of losing). Each bet will be nominated in betting units between 1 to 5, this staking number is also a reflection of and guide to the level of confidence that our analyst has in his nominated bet (1 being lowest, 5 being highest).

Conservative Approach

For those who would prefer a more conservative approach, given the high % of placings achieved by Matt Thompson with his selections you might consider a 1 x 2 or 1 x 3 staking method, staking 1 unit the win and 2 units the place for all selections regardless of the market price. Your longer term returns will be less but still very profitable, but this approach will even out the run of win outs when they occur and assist in maintaining your longer term betting bank.

What does Matt Thompson do?

Matt is old school and has always been a win bet only punter, so what you see from our results is exactly how he has approached it.


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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

Horse Racing Best Bets each week for our Reading The Play subscribers.

Matt Thompson provides expert Horse Racing Best Bets each week for our Reading The Play Horse Racing subscribers. Matt is a highly experienced punter, breeder and long-term form student who brings a meticulous approach to his work and selections, refined over many decades of professional punting. His approach is very selective with a likely 4 to 5 selections each week with Saturday’s his main focus.

Educated, well reasoned winning best bets and horse racing tips for Australian horse racing.

Matt Thompson spends countless hours each week analysing form, times, video and other statistical criteria critical toward providing quality horse racing tips and winning long term on Australian horse racing. In addition to his own assessments, video review and form assessment Matt Thompson also has a strong network of industry contacts – all of which contribute to the framing of his final recommended horse racing best bets and tips for Reading The Play subscribers.

Further details on our Horse Racing offering here

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