AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23


AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%

AFL Round 23


Bet 2 units Hawthorn-Collingwood over 176.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB

Bet TBA – Fremantle-Western Bulldogs over


BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Adelaide, Geelong, Carlton, Sydney, Port Adelaide, GWS, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs

Game Previews


Hawthorn v Collingwood

Hawthorn are the best in the AFL at rebounding from a loss and have won 11 of their last 12 matches played at the MCG in the week following a loss. However, I don’t have the confidence in them to cover a five goal line while adjusting to the loss of Ceglar. However, I do expect this to be a free scoring game. From 2010 to 2016, Sunday afternoon matches in the final round of the season have averaged nearly 190 points as playoff bound teams sharpen their attack and teams out of the eight take a loose and carefree approach. Further, the last five clashes between these two teams have yielded 192, 177, 201, 203 and 235 points. The market agrees and has moved five to six points towards the over since Tuesday morning. It has also firmed since our SMS recommendation on Thursday morning.

Bet 2 units Hawthorn-Collingwood over 176.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB

Fremantle v Western Bulldogs

Pav’s last hurrah should ensure that Fremantle come ready to play against the Doggies. The line has been set very low due to the defensive minded nature of both teams and the wet weather forecast today and Saturday. Depending upon how much rain Perth gets, I may recommend an over bet later today or tomorrow. Fremantle are not the defensive side they used to be and their last five matches have yielded 166, 212, 174, 184 and 186 points – well over the line available for this match. At home, they should be able to score enough goals to ensure the total goes over.

Bet TBA – Fremantle-Western Bulldogs over

Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Adelaide v West Coast – They won’t need to open the dressing room doors for either side tonight! I lean towards Adelaide continuing their good form and covering the line. The market is moving towards the over, but I’m not convinced and note that Eagles have gone under in 15 of 21 games this season and in 18 of their last 26 night games.

Geelong v Melbourne – It’s hard to know where Melbourne’s head will be there for this one after last week’s season loss to Carlton cruelled their finals hopes. The bookies have offered Melbourne a five goal start but this doesn’t interest me. I have no interest in Geelong either after they struggled to put the Lions to the sword last week. They are a poor 10-25 as a 30.5+ favourite.

Essendon v Carlton – Carlton have covered the line in 23 of their last 34 day games and I lean towards the Blues covering.

Sydney v Richmond – Swans obviously have everything to play for and should cover the large line against the Tigers. However, I respect the Tigers good recent head to head record against the Swans and won’t be taking them on. Tigers have gone under total match score line in 11 of their last 14 as an interstate dog.

Gold Coast v Port Adelaide – Port have covered the line in 22 of their last 32 night games. I expect them to have too much run for a depleted Suns side that is obviously cooked. Market has moved three points towards Port since Tuesday morning.

North Melbourne v GWS – Intriguing clash! Keys stats favouring both sides with GWS covering 24 of their last 35 as favourite and North covering 21 of their last 30 as a home dog. Danger game!

St Kilda v Brisbane – Lions continue to leak points and have gone over in an amazing 17 of 21 games this season. Accordingly, the market has been set very high and I’m happy to pass on this one.



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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips


Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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