AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 22

 

Bet 3 units West Coast-Hawthorn under 170.5  $1.91 Bet365 BB

Bet 2 units GWS-Fremantle over 169.5 $1.91 Bet365

Bet 2 units Brisbane-Geelong over 192.5 $1.91 Bet365

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Hawthorn, Sydney, St Kilda, GWS, Collingwood, Adelaide, Melbourne, Geelong, Western Bulldogs


Game Previews

 

West Coast v Hawthorn

The Eagles have been off the pace all season, but have they hit their straps at the right time? They get their chance to show that in a rematch of last year’s Qualifying Final at this venue. I still lean slightly towards the Hawks on the strength of their mental edge over the Eagles through convincing victories in the last two clashes. With both teams off a six day back up and a potential high stakes arm wrestle on the cards, my interest lies in the under betting play. The Eagles have been a strong under side this season going under in 14 of their 20 matches. They have also gone under in 17 of their last 25 night matches. Further, Hawthorn are no longer a prolific scoring team and their last five matches have yielded 153, 191, 129, 158 and 145 points. Four of the last five head to head clashes have gone under the 170.5 line we recommended to subscribers on Wednesday morning. The market agrees with a number of bookies moving 3-4 points towards the under since then.

Bet 3 units West Coast-Hawthorn under 170.5 $1.91 Bet365 BB


GWS v Fremantle

This match shapes a typical late season affair between a home outfit sharpening its attack for the finals and a cellar dweller on the road and looking for the finish line. Freo have been a prolific scoring team at home and the twilight timeslot should not impede their scoring. The market appears to have been set on the basis of Freo’s long term reputation as a defensive minded ‘unders’ team. However, this is not reflected in recent form with the last four Freo matches yielding 212, 174, 184 and 186 points. Three of the last four head to head clashes have also gone over the 169.5 line we recommended to our subscribers on Wednesday morning. The market agrees and has moved a massive 10-12 points towards the over since then.

Bet 2 units GWS-Fremantle over 169.5 $1.91 Bet365


Brisbane-Geelong

Like GWS v Freo, this match shapes as a high scoring late season affair in fine conditions. Geelong has been an unders side this season, but I expect their forward line to grab a lot of marks against the under manned Lions defence and have a tune up prior to the finals. With an eight day break and back to back home games, the Lions are more than capable of racking up 70-80 points to ensure a high scoring affair. The Lions have gone over in 16 out of 20 games this season with the last five matches yielding totals of 194, 216, 252, 219 and 213 points. The market agrees and has moved four points towards the over since we recommended our subscribers bet over 192.5 on Wednesday morning.

Bet 2 units Brisbane-Geelong over 192.5 $1.91 Bet365


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


North Melbourne v Sydney – The Swans have covered the line in 30 of their last 44 day matches while the Kangas have covered the line in 28 of their last 41 matches with seven or more days between games. Nonetheless, I lean towards the Swans covering.


Richmond v St Kilda – Tigers have gone under the total match score line in 18 of their last 26 games off a six day break and with wet weather on the horizon, this does shape as an ‘under’ game. However, it is also a late season clash between two outfits out of finals contention and defence can be loose in such matches.


Collingwood v Gold Coast – Pies have gone under in 36 of their last 53 at night. Again, it is also a late season clash between two outfits out of finals contention and defence can be loose in such matches. Lean towards the over.


Port Adelaide v Adelaide – Port looked awful last weekend and the Crows racked up their third cricket score on the trot.  However, I’m not keen to bet against Port in a Showdown and also note that they have covered the line in 21 of their last 31 night games.


Carlton v Melbourne – It’s hard to go past the streaking Dees to cover against the slumping Blues. Will consider a bet on this match after the outcome of the North Melbourne-Sydney clash.


Essendon v Western Bulldogs – Dons have gone under in 32 of their last 46 games as a home dog. Again, it is also a late season clash between two outfits out of finals contention and defence can be loose in such matches. Lean towards the over.


 

 


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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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