AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 20

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 20

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 20

 

Bet 1 unit Gold Coast -17.5 $1.93 Bet365

Bet 2 units Geelong-Richmond under 171.5 $1.85 William Hill BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Hawthorn, GWS, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, Geelong, Adelaide


Game Previews

 

Essendon v Gold Coast

The Suns have performed admirably in recent weeks going down narrowly to Melbourne on the road and GWS at home. Prior to that, they proved themselves capable of covering a 20+ line with a 24 point win over Freo and a 26 point win over the Lions. They are getting troops back and are knocking on the door of another win and get their chance to repeat their 61 point win over the Dons in Round 1. The Dons are limping to the finish line and have been beaten by more than 22.5 in 9 of their last 11 matches.  Further, Essendon have only covered 13 of their last 36 matches at Etihad.

Bet 1 unit Gold Coast -17.5 $1.93 Bet365


Geelong v Richmond

The Cats have gone under in 13 of 19 games this season and their defence has been strangling sides in recent weeks, allowing just 34, 78, 55 and 61 in their past four games. With percentage critically important this season, I can’t see the Cats conceding too many cheap points against the Tigers. Four of the Tigers last five games have gone under 171.5 points while four of the last five head to head clashes have also gone under 171.5 points. The market agrees and has moved 1-2 points towards the under since Tuesday morning.

Bet 2 units Geelong-Richmond under 171.5 $1.85 William Hill BB


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Western Bulldogs v Collingwood – Dogs have gone under in 19 of their last 25 off a six day break and the Pies have gone under in 36 of their last 52 night games. Line has been set low however, with Pies going over this line in four of their last five.


Brisbane v Carlton – Lions have gone over in 15 of 19 games this season with their last five yielding 216, 252, 219, 213 and 252. A late season day game between two sides out of finals contention is normally a recipe for a shootout but I’m just wary that Carlton might try and strangle this to grind out a much needed victory.


Hawthorn v North Melbourne – Hawks have covered 10 of their last 11 when playing at MCG next game after a loss but Roos have covered 8 of their last 11 at MCG. Very slight lean to Kangas with start. Danger game!


GWS v West Coast – GWS have covered 23 of their last 33 when starting as favourites but after four weeks on the road and just scraping home late over the Suns. Slight lean to the experienced Eagles with the start, but I’d rather just watch this one.


St Kilda v Sydney – Swans have gone under in 35 of their last 52 at night and with percentage being important, they won’t want to give Saints too many cheap points. Lean to the under.


Fremantle v Adelaide – The Crows should pick up where they left off after racking up cricket scores against Dons and Lions and Freo’s total match scores have crept up also in the last three weeks. Lean to the over.


 

 


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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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