AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19


AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%

AFL Round 19


Bet 2 units Collingwood -15.5 $1.92 Luxbet

Bet 2 units Gold Coast-GWS under 192.5 $1.90 Luxbet BB

Bet 1 unit Adelaide-Brisbane over 207.5 $1.91 Bet365


BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Collingwood, Sydney, Hawthorn, GWS, North Melbourne, Adelaide, St Kilda, Geelong, West Coast

Game Previews


Richmond v Collingwood

The Pies have won 8 of their last 10 v Richmond and come into this game having won 4 of their last 6 with a reasonable form line. Their only losses in that time frame have been against Adelaide and North Melbourne. The Tigers on the other hand are blooding kids, have lost four of their last five and were diabolical in managing just 23 points against GWS. In their preferred night time slot, the Pies are well placed to continue their solid finish to the season. The market agrees, firming 3-4 points towards the Pies since Tuesday morning.

Bet 2 units Collingwood -15.5 $1.92 Luxbet

Gold Coast v GWS

A very high line has been set for this twilight match with the bookies clearly placing considerable weight on the first clash between these two sides earlier this season – which yielded 207 points. However, that match was played in the middle of the Suns’ 10 game losing streak when they were low on troops. They have now recovered to win three of their last five, including a narrow two point loss. While still low on midfield grunt, the Suns forwards and backs have performed admirably in recent weeks and I expect them to be highly competitive against a fellow expansion club.   Importantly, the Suns’ last three matches have yielded 130, 186 and 166 points while the Giants last two matches have  yielded 134 and 139 points. The Suns are off a six day back up while the Giants will be playing their fourth consecutive road trip which will take a bit out of both sides. If the forecast showers arrive, the chances of the match going under will be further enhanced.

Bet 2 units Gold Coast-GWS under 192.5 $1.90 Luxbet BB

Adelaide v Brisbane

The Crows demonstrated last weekend that they were in a percentage boosting mood and they get another chance here against a Lions outfit that continued to leak points while still managing to score  enough goals of their own to keep the scorekeepers busy. The Lions have gone over in 14 of 18 games this season and their last four matches have yielded 252, 219, 213 and 252 points. Not even last weekend’s night match could keep the scores down and another shoot out is on the cards at the Adelaide Oval.

Bet 1 unit Adelaide-Brisbane over 207.5


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Sydney v Port Adelaide  – The Power racked up a cricket score against the Lions and have gone over in 10 of their last 12 day games but expect this game to be played on the Swans terms and they have gone under in 12 of 18 games this season.

Melbourne v Hawthorn – Hawks have won 13 in a row against the Demons. At this stage of the season with heavy training in progress before the taper, it would not surprise in the least to see them do just enough to win. Lean towards the Demons to cover and the match to go under.

Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne – Kangas have covered 28 of their last 39 with seven or more days between games but I respect the fact that the Dogs have covered 12 of their last 16 as 0.5-15 point underdogs. Slight lean towards the Kangas on the back of a healthier squad.

Carlton v St Kilda – Blues are again in their preferred daytime slot where they have covered 22 of their last 31. However, I can’t have them at the small line. Very slight lean to the Saints.

Geelong v Essendon – Geelong ‘should’ belt the Dons but they have a poor record as 30.5+ favourites covering on 9 of the last 32 such games. Further they have only won by more than 66.5 on only two occasions this season so can’t be trusted to cover the big line. Danger game!

Fremantle v West Coast – Eagles have gone under in 14 of 18 games this season and I expect Freo to be happy to make an arm wrestle of it. However with a very low line for a day game, this game is best left alone.





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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips


Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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