AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 3

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 3


AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%

AFL Finals Week 3


Bet 2 units Geelong H2H $1.66 William Hill BB

Bet 1 unit GWS-Western Bulldogs over 167.5 $1.90 Unibet


BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Geelong, GWS

Game Previews


Geelong v Sydney


Since the McIntyre System was introduced in 2000, Qualifying Finals winners who earned a week off have proceeded to win 28 of the 32 Preliminary Finals they have contested. This is a powerful form factor in anyone’s  language. Granted, the pre finals bye has added uncertainty to the mix with Geelong playing just their second match in four weeks. However, in an era of sports scientists tapering the players’ physical preparation to the minute, I don’t expect the Cats to be underdone. The main challenge will be between the ears and there is enough experience in the Cat’s roster to prepare accordingly.  I am comfortable discounting the Cats regular season loss to the Swans as a form reference as they made half a dozen changes for that match including bringing in Mitch Clark for his only game of the season.

The Swans were outstanding last week but off a six day back up and with injury concerns to key players they have to be risked. Also, the Swans have only covered the line in 3 of their last 11 matches at the MCG. The market agrees and has moved 1-2 points towards the Cats since Monday. I have a lot of respect for what the Swans will bring and am suggesting  a conservative play of Geelong to win head to head.

Bet 2 units Geelong H2H $1.66 William Hill BB

GWS v Western Bulldogs


Great clash between two up and coming sides. As already mentioned, the Bulldogs will be up against the weight of history with Qualifying Final winners prevailing in 28 of the last 32 Preliminary Finals. Further, the Giants have covered the line in 25 of 36 matches as a favourite. The Dogs however have covered the line in 14 of their last 18 as a 0.5-15 point underdog. Lean towards GWS to cover but think the bookies have the line right.

The bookies have set the line low based on their data for the season. However, I have noted that the Dogs have really been chancing their arm in attack in the playoffs and it has been paying off as they have recorded 107 and 99 points in attack. Further, the last five clashes between these two outfits have yielded 171, 181, 224, 193 and 170 points, all over the line set for this match. The lines have barely moved since Monday but a couple of bookies have tightened the odds in favour of the over.

Bet 1 unit GWS-Western Bulldogs over 167.5 $1.90 Unibet


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!



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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 3

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips


Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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