AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 2

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 2


AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


AFL Finals Week 2


Bet 1 unit Sydney-Adelaide over 175.5 $1.90 William Hill


BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Individual Game Tips

Hawthorn, Sydney

Game Previews


Sydney v Adelaide

Between 2000-2014, Qualifying Final losers won 26 of 28 Semi Finals against Elimination Final losers. However, the tables have been turned over the past two season with Elimination Final winners prevailing in three of the past four Semi Finals. Both teams have won 17 out of 23 games this season, so it can be argued that the gap between 1st and 5th is non-existent this year. The Swans won four of their last five against the Crows but have lost their last four finals matches so I can’t have them with confidence. The market also has doubts about the Swans, moving 2-4 points towards the Crows since Tuesday morning. I’m sitting on the fence here.

However, I’m keen to back the Swans attack to click back into gear at the SCG after an off day when kicking 7:13 against GWS. Adelaide’s attacking prowess needs no introduction – they have gone over in 14 of 23 games this season and have gone over in 12 of their last 17 as an interstate dog. Further the last three matches between these two teams yielded 216, 182 and 205 points. While I expect the game to be played at typical finals intensity with periods of arm wrestling, I am also expecting the game to open up at times to keep the scoreboard ticking over. The market agrees and has moved 1-2 points towards the over since Tuesday morning.

Bet 1 unit Sydney-Adelaide over 175.5 $1.90 William Hill


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!

Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

Hawthorn have won 17 games this season, just one more than the Bulldogs who have won 16, so the ‘gap’ between Qualifying Final losers and Elimination Finals winners isn’t as big as it has been in many of the one sided Semi Final contests between 2000-2014.

Hawthorn have covered the line in 11 of their last 13 matches when playing at the MCG immediately after a loss, however, have lost three of their last five matches and need to be taken on trust. The Doggies have covered the line in 13 of their last 17 matches when starting a 0.5-15pt underdog and beat the Hawks in many statistical categories when going down 93-90 at Etihad earlier this season. Too close to call! Slight lean to Hawks.

The Doggies have gone under in 16 of 23 games this season, hence the very low line. However, the last two clashes between these two sides yielded 183 and 184 points and the Doggies defence is not as tight away from Etihad. I lean towards the over.



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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.


AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 2

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips


Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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