NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 3 Preview
MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.
2013-17: Profit +104.53 units | 321 winners / 589 bets | strike rate 54.5%
Origin 2016 – Game 3
Origin 2016 – Game 3 Recommended Bets
Total Points Over 36.5 $1.90
Anytime Try Scorer: Gavin Cooper $4.50
Man of the Match: Jonathon Thurston $8.00
The above bets are the favoured bet types MrG has recommended for this game.
NSW vs QLD
QLD lead the series 2-0
Of the last 7 dead rubber games on 4 occasions the side leading 2-0 have gone on to win the series as a clean sweep (3-0)
The last 3 times NSW have been up against it (down 2-0) into a dead rubber game at home they have lost all 3
So lets just recap. QLD have now won 10 of the last 11 series. But, they are beatable, and have been in my opinion through recent years. After winning the series 3 years ago NSW had enough ball to win two games in Game 1 2015 yet couldn’t win; then won Game 2 yet were then soundly flogged (52-6) in the series decider Game 3. This year NSW (at home) in Game 1 once again had enough ball to win two games on one night yet could only score one try and lost (6-4); lost Game 2 (26-16) and now face a dead rubber game back at home.
Through the last 4 years under Daley as coach NSW have averaged approx. 10 points in attack, and consistently shown an obsession for a bash and barge, defensive and negative approach. We don’t have to be major students of the game to understand that scoring around 10 points each contest ain’t going to win you many at this level.
The great Choppy Close made a wonderful point in a radio interview a few weeks ago about NSW, they’ve been obsessed through recent years with how to shut QLD down not how to play their own game, and importantly pick and play to some strengths. Summed it up beautifully!
Do you see a pattern developing here?
And please don’t give me that line that this QLD side are so good, and such a champion team, and blah blah blah. They have been, an outstanding team, for many years, but they have been very beatable through the last 4 to 5 years, the problem for NSW has been direction, plan and selection.
Now initially I think the NSW team changes are positive. Tedesco, Jack Bird, Graham and Moylan are the way of the future for NSW. Tedesco and Bird reek class, especially the former who is just an attacking genius with 11 tries, 11 try assists and some 80 tackle breaks already season to date – he was an absolute must. Finally Graham has been recognised, and will join Frizelle who was a stand out as best player for NSW in game 2 (on debut). But if we dig a little deeper they are still playing with 5 front rowers (for goodness sake why), a make shift 7, make shift 6 and scattered across their backs list 3 centres and 3 fullbacks. Still the reliance on 5 middle forwards, key attacking / backs playing out of tehir accustomed positions and from latest reports Moylan to start at #6 a role he is yet to accomplish himself at at club level yet now after a few days in camp (and after being dropped) he’ll now start in a key play making role.
NSW can win, and they have a dead rubber event that should be in their favour. But they still have lots of ifs and buts, key ifs and buts about their game plan and combinations that worry me, and more often than not major ifs and buts that doesn’t work at this level.
QLD, well I can’t tell you anything you don’t already know. They are winners, they win at counting sheep in their sleep. Players like Smith, Thurston, Cronk and co just seem to eat this stuff for breakfast (or when allowed to). Watching them through the last 12 months it has almost looked like they have known what NSW were going to throw at them and just stood back like the prized fighter and take a few shots and almost laughed is that all you have got. NSW haven’t asked questions of them which has allowed them to just roll with the game, and step up when they had a half chance, or when it mattered.
If NSW chose to play up tempo (quick play the balls, play direct off #9, ball play off their back row and engage the #1) they have points, they have advantage and they can win. But if Daley is going to use 5 big forwards then this is going to slow them down. The next question is how do the combinations work across the back 7. If they fire they have skill and points, but it’s a major question. But I have little confidence that NSW can get this right.
What’s that old line about poking a champion in the eye? I don’t think this QLD team is finished yet. They know how to step up when it matters, and this game will still matter to them. I expect they’ll clearly target the inexperience of the halves combination, pepper Moylan and once again work over NSW’s right edge defence. In Game 2 they also made some smart unexpected raids at NSW’s left edge as well (multiple tries) which I’m sure we’ll see again. I also expect Thurston leads the way here, he has been near best in each of the opening two games, in quality club form and makes a habit of playing blinders on this stage.
For mine QLD 28-18
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NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 3 Preview
Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting
Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.
Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.
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