NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 4
Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.
2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%
NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016
Rd 4 Game Handicaps
+2.5 Rabbits vs Bulldogs
-5.5 Broncos vs Cowboys
-4.0 Raiders vs Titans
+2.5 Roosters vs Eagles
-3.5 Dragons vs Panthers
-16.5 Warriors vs Knights
+6.5 Tigers vs Eels
-3.5 Sharks vs Storm
NRL Round 4 Recommended Bet List
Bet 2 units Titans +8.5 $1.80 Tabcorp
Bet 2 units Panthers +2.5 $1.91 Sportsbet
Bet 2 units Warriors -12.0 $1.90 Ubet BB
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons
Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).
Individual Game Tips
Bulldogs, Broncos, Titans, Eagles, Panthers, Warriors, Eels, Sharks
Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.
Key Contest Stats
Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @
Rabbits vs Bulldogs
Two arch rivals clashing in what has become a traditional match over the Easter weekend. The Rabbitohs have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Dogs and 5 of the last 7 since 2013. 4 of the 5 wins have been by 1-12 points, while 4 of the last 5 clashes have finished Unders in TMP’s, with the most recent clash the only 1 of the 5 to finish higher than 36 points. Only twice in the previous 11 meetings have the Bulldogs outscored the Rabbits in the 2nd half, while they have scored the opening try of the match in 3 of the last 4. With 4 of the last 5 clashes going Unders and 8 of the last 11 day time matches at ANZ Stadium finishing the same way, the Unders looks a likely result.
This was a rippa clash last Easter but now stripped of much of the obvious quality given the 4 key outs for the Rabbits, in particular Sam Burgess (and the significant impact he has on those around him) and Reynolds kicking game which was so obviously missing last week. The other significant issues the Rabbits then face here is coming of the slug fest in the wet last Sunday, and the 5 day turn around (even tougher this season with the decreased interchange). I’m sure the Rabbits will be in the fight, but very hard to be with them.
I was so enthused watching the Bulldogs in round won as they belted the Eagles think “thank goodness the off season has done wonders to this mob and Des has got their mojo back”, how short it was lived…. They then got our of jail on the bell at Penrith where their opponent blew the opportunity and then spluttered their way through a really poor offering last week when soundly beat by the Eels. They have massive issues at #9, I just wouldn’t feed Garvey and how he has got to this level is amazing, he is slow, has a terrible pass and read of play, then we have Reynolds who in my opinion is a #9 strangling their attack at #6, and so just like last year we have this stop start, spluttering, ineffective attack from the Bulldogs through these last two weeks. It’s only week 4, so do they improve?
Have to tip the Bulldogs given the list of circumstances against the Rabbits, hope we see both teams lift as a great clash but I have zero confidence about wanting to touch the game with a bet.
Broncos vs Cowboys
Grand Final rematch closes out Good Friday when the Broncos take on the Cowboys. The Broncos will be out to avenge their 1 point loss and H2H stats are in favour of the home team, as the home side has won 9 of the last 10 clashes. More often than not, meetings between these 2 sides have been closely fought contests, with 12 of the last 18 matches decided by single figures and 7 of them by 2 points or less. The team to score the first try of the match has gone on to win 11 of the last 13 clashes and the half time leader has also won 14 of the last 16 meetings. Brisbane has scored the 1st try of the match in the last 4 meetings, while the Cowboys have scored the last try in 5 of the last 6 and they have also scored the last try in their 1st 3 matches of this season. The Broncos have covered a line in 74% of their matches at Suncorp Stadium since 2014, while the Cowboys have covered in 55% of their matches as an away side over the same period. 4 of the last 6 clashes have resulted in Unders for TMP’s, while 5 of the Broncos last 7 matches at home have also finished that way.
Excellent clash as we would expect, very hard to find much of a gap between them and playing at home has to be an advantage for the Broncos (and the Cows have lost their last 4 here). The Cowboys have some nice advantage on again playing with the same 17 week in week out and come off the soft walk through of the Roosters last week. Defensively they are very strong at present, and have been week on week offering up just 11 pts per game and there is no doubt that they have an air of positive confidence about themselves.
The Broncos were poor last week dropping a 10 point half time lead and failing to score in the second half. As many teams will they struggled defensively with the ball play and consistent off load game that the Panthers threw at them but they also lost control of the game with their key errors and missed tackle stats blowing out. While Milford has been in quality form the same can’t be said for Hunt who I think has been well off through these first 3 weeks and clearly must be struggling with confidence off the back of he late (and costly) error in the GF golden point time, facing up to the Cows here may well be an interesting challenge. He involvement has been poor, play making and touching the ball far less than required, making key defensive misses and some ordinary kick plays, the Broncos get probably get by most weeks covering up this but its key he improve for a contest like this.
I’m expecting that that loss last week and return home to a full house and big game contest will be good for the Broncos and they be up for the contest he. As we saw in the GF right now I think there is very little between these two, a key error, poor kick, moment of skill – that’s about all that separates them. Thurston v Hunt will be critical. As mentioned last week prior to the Cowboys thumping the Roosters I like good teams off an away loss returning home to a ground where they have some advantage and the Broncos certainly tick all of this profile this week and I lean to them in what should be a cracking game.
Raiders vs Titans
Titans have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Raiders at GIO Stadium but they come into this clash as the outsider and do so for the 4th week in a row. 5 of the last 6 meetings in Canberra have been decided by a margin of 1-12 points and all 3 of the Raiders matches in 2015 have also been close finishes. The Raiders are back at home and are1 of 2 sides that remain undefeated, while the Titans have lost their last 7 matches played on the road, the last 6 of them have been by a margin of 13+. There have been plenty of points on offer in recent clashes at GIO Stadium, with 7 of the last 8 clashes at the ground finishing Overs in TMP’s, with an average of 56 and the Raiders have also had Overs results in 8 of their last 10, including all 3 games of the current season. In the previous 6 clashes the Titans have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half and in 4 of the last 5 they have scored the last try of the match.
There is always risk with these two sides but I find it hard to get this any further than about 4 as a line either way, and just see up side with the Titans. The Raiders last two games come through the two sides yet to open their account with a win (Knights, Roosters), and both have copped a flogging or two already which surely reads as a thin form guide – in all reality the Raiders could well have lost both games so it’s hardly an inspiring or strong form reference. The Raiders remain without their two key halves, critical outs, lose one of their centres and given all of this disruption have had to resort to a very predicable attack pattern, and lets not forget they blew a 16 point lead last week and the week prior should never have got out with a win when down by a margin the the Roosters.
The Titans can be well prepared by Henry, they have won 2 of 3 and I think will fancy themselves here. Unlike many they also have a healthy enough away record, they are getting more out of a few of their key forwards than I expected and Ash Taylor is certainly starting to find his feet as a top grade #7 and a nice attacking combination with Roberts at #6. Plus 8.5 gets us over a key number and given the questionable form depth that the Raiders come through I think offers a key advantage, plus we are also playing through an early season period of weeks where a healthy plus line start can be a nice advantage.
Bet 2 units Titans +8.5 $1.80 Tabcorp
Roosters vs Eagles
Roosters have won 5 of the previous 7 clashes with the Sea Eagles and in 6 of the 7 meetings the winning margin has been by 1-12 points. The last 2 clashes at Allianz Stadium have resulted in a total of just 12 points, with both sides keeping the other to nil once each and only once from the last 7 meetings has the 1st try of the match been scored prior to the 8th minute. Despite having just 1 win to their credit, the Sea Eagles again start as the favourite and they, along with the Broncos are the only teams to start as the favourite in the opening 4 weeks. The Roosters are anchored at the bottom of the ladder with the worst defensive record and have conceded more than double the amount of points that they had after 3 Rounds last year.
Lot of focus on what the Roosters can offer here off 3 poor defeats two of which big thumping’s. Returning to their home track will help a little but with their list of key outs and now further injuries they are certainly up against things. I said pre season I wasn’t convinced with all the hype around Hastings and for mine he has been poor through these last few weeks, but certainly not on his own.
Eagles were very good on Monday, much better attitude and stiffened up there middle D, there are plenty of players who are critical to their teams performance (Thurston, etc) but possibly none more than the influence Brett Stewart has on the Eagles, we all know he’s a wizard in attack but he does so much to coordinate and direct their defence. They do come off the 5 day short turn around but that win should do them some good. With the Eagles but lots of ifs and buts about the game.
Dragons vs Panthers
The first of 6 matches on the road for the Panthers in the next 7 weeks when they take on the Dragons at WIN Stadium and despite a healthy recent record over the joint venture (have won 5 of the last 6), they have lost 9 of their last 11 games that have been played in Wollongong. The 1st points of the match have proved crucial when these sides meet as it’s now 8 times from the last 10 clashes that the side to open the scoring has gone on to win the match. Recent meetings have also been low scoring affairs with 8 of the last 9 matches resulting in Unders for TMP’s and 6 of the last 7 Dragons matches played at WIN Stadium have also finished Under. The Panthers have failed to cover the line in 5 of their last 6 away games and 4 of their last 5 as a road dog, while the Dragons have covered the line in 6 of their last 7 when playing at their true home ground (WIN Stadium or Kogarah).
The Dragons have to be opposed here, especially against a side that can play such high off load attack and create so much line break opportunity. Where do the Dragons points come from? They come off a hard slog in the wet where in my opinion the conditions made them look far better than they were, once again they could have camped themselves on the attacking 20 mtr line for 3 hours and still never looked like scoring a try and across three games they have scored just three tries? We saw last year that if an opponent can jump them with points they are in all sorts of trouble trying to find a way back into the game (and we saw this again two weeks ago at Cronulla). The Panthers were better last week, in particular in the second 40 where their offload game broke the Broncos up, they get Merrin and Blake back, Martin really looks the goods and that win might be a break through for them. If teh coach just lets them play some footy and doesn’t try to shackle it too much they should have too many points for this.
Bet 2 units Panthers +2.5 $1.91 Sportsbet
Warriors vs Knights
History shows that the Knights have recorded just 1 victory against the Warriors over the last 11 years when playing at Mt. Smart Stadium, losing 9 of 10. In recent times, these meetings have been closely fought contests, with 8 of the last 10 clashes having been decided by a margin of 1-12 points. The Knights are into a distant away game, where their record is poor, winning just 37% of them since 2013, while the Warriors have lost 11 straight and are 1 of 2 sides yet to register a point. Both sides have conceded 1st points in their opening 3 matches and both sides are yet to lead at half time. Consider Manu Vatuvei in first try scorer calculations as he has scored 10 tries in his past 8 games against Newcastle.
The Warriors have lost their last 10 yet as hard as I try I just can’t get them any closer than at least 18 points here, and I suspect this might well be the break through game for them. They were better against the Broncos, and then much better last week especially their attitude and commitment to defence and only got nailed late by a cool, professional Storm who make a habit of icing the clutch moments when it matters. Well they are not facing anything like the Storm here, a Knights side down 0-16 last week, got out with a draw and probably feel somewhat relaxed having released some of the pressure, terrible record as travelers especially to distant away games and with a very young in experienced list. The Warriors get the advantage of a 7 day back to back home gig and I’m expecting a very focused offering from a side now at a stage where they really want to put in and win. If as I suspect they get themselves going then they’ll grow with some confidence as the games unfolds, and they have plenty of points in them under such circumstances, if they aim up and manage this right they should win by a comfortable margin. 12 is a key number if you can bet this, or I’d be happy to play anything out to 14.
Bet 2 units Warriors -12.0 $1.90 Ubet BB
Tigers vs Eels
Tigers have won 6 of the last 8 clashes with the Eels, including a 16 point win in the corresponding match on Easter Monday last year. Both sides have a poor record at ANZ Stadium, with the Tigers winning 6 of 15 over the last 3 seasons, while the Eels win last week over the Bulldogs was just their 3rd win at the ground from their last 22 matches. The Eels start as a favourite for the 1st time this season and they have a 50% record over the previous 3 seasons as a starting favourite. The Tigers have covered a line in 5 of their last 6 when getting a start, while the Eels have failed to cover the line in 7 of their last 9 when giving up a start. The Tigers have scored 17 tries in the 1st 3 weeks (took them until Round 7 in 2015 to score that many) and 12 of them have been scored via their right edge. Consider James Tedesco in try scorer calculations as he has scored 13 tries from 13 matches at ANZ Stadium, including 9 from his last 7.
Think the key here is the defensive stats, Eels conceding just 13 points a game after 3, Tigers conceding 26. The Eels defensive structures have been impressive and they come through a strong form line of Broncos, Cowboys and then nice win last week over Bulldogs. But, surprisingly Tigers have had the advantage and the wood on their opponents through recent years winning 6 of the last 8 H2H. On form, form lines and defensive commitment I like Eels but not a game I want to play in.
Sharks vs Storm
Storm has a dominant record over the Sharks, winning 10 wins of the past 11 encounters. Melbourne has also won 5 of the previous 7 clashes played at Shark Park. They have been comprehensive winners in the last 4 clashes, where all 4 wins have been by a margin of 13 +, with Melbourne averaging 38 points a game. They have scored the opening try of the match in the previous 11 clashes with the Sharks who have failed to score a 1 st half try in 7 of those 11 matches, averaging just 2 1st half points. Cronulla have won 5 of their last 7 at home, their 2 losses were against last weeks’ opponent in the Sea Eagles and this weeks’ opponent in the Storm. They are off the back of MNF and have only won 1 of their last 9 following a Monday fixture. The Sharks have scored 9 tries so far this season (ranked equal 8th), with 7 of the 9 having been scored attacking via their right edge.
Storm have quite a considerable recent record H2H here, winning 10 of the last 11 including 5 of the last 7 at the ground and have started the season 3 and 0, although I’m just not sure on the form strength just yet. They are professional and get the job done, but I’m just not completely sold on them up against better opponents and this might be a nice test. Sharks were poor last Monday and everything that was against them came to fruition, they return home, have a 7 day break and a nice challenge up against an opponent that should pose a nice contest. Their attack has been questionable, most of their tries season to date have come off kicks and they have failed to ball play off a couple of their leading forwards. Good game. I have a slight lean to the Sharks at home, but want to watch both and learn some more as to where they both are right now.
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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 4
Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting
Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.
Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.
MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.
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