NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 4

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 4

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 4 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+2.5 Rabbits vs Bulldogs

-5.5 Broncos vs Cowboys

-4.0 Raiders vs Titans

+2.5 Roosters vs Eagles

-3.5 Dragons vs Panthers

-16.5 Warriors vs Knights

+6.5 Tigers vs Eels

-3.5 Sharks vs Storm


NRL Round 4 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Titans +8.5  $1.80 Tabcorp

Bet 2 units Panthers +2.5  $1.91 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Warriors -12.0  $1.90 Ubet  BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Bulldogs, Broncos, Titans, Eagles, Panthers, Warriors, Eels, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Rabbits vs Bulldogs

+2.5 Rabbits

Stats

Two arch rivals clashing in what has become a traditional match over the Easter weekend. The Rabbitohs have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Dogs and 5 of the last 7 since 2013. 4 of the 5 wins have been by 1-12 points, while 4 of the last 5 clashes have finished Unders in TMP’s, with the most recent clash the only 1 of the 5 to finish higher than 36 points. Only twice in the previous 11 meetings have the Bulldogs outscored the Rabbits in the 2nd half, while they have scored the opening try of the match in 3 of the last 4. With 4 of the last 5 clashes going Unders and 8 of the last 11 day time matches at ANZ Stadium finishing the same way, the Unders looks a likely result.

Preview

This was a rippa clash last Easter but now stripped of much of the obvious quality given the 4 key outs for the Rabbits, in particular Sam Burgess (and the significant impact he has on those around him) and Reynolds kicking game which was so obviously missing last week. The other significant issues the Rabbits then face here is coming of the slug fest in the wet last Sunday, and the 5 day turn around (even tougher this season with the decreased interchange). I’m sure the Rabbits will be in the fight, but very hard to be with them.

I was so enthused watching the Bulldogs in round won as they belted the Eagles think “thank goodness the off season has done wonders to this mob and Des has got their mojo back”, how short it was lived…. They then got our of jail on the bell at Penrith where their opponent blew the opportunity and then spluttered their way through a really poor offering last week when soundly beat by the Eels. They have massive issues at #9, I just wouldn’t feed Garvey and how he has got to this level is amazing, he is slow, has a terrible pass and read of play, then we have Reynolds who in my opinion is a #9 strangling their attack at #6, and so just like last year we have this stop start, spluttering, ineffective attack from the Bulldogs through these last two weeks. It’s only week 4, so do they improve?

Have to tip the Bulldogs given the list of circumstances against the Rabbits, hope we see both teams lift as a great clash but I have zero confidence about wanting to touch the game with a bet.


Broncos vs Cowboys

-5.5 Broncos

Stats

Grand Final rematch closes out Good Friday when the Broncos take on the Cowboys. The Broncos will be out to avenge their 1 point loss and H2H stats are in favour of the home team, as the home side has won 9 of the last 10 clashes. More often than not, meetings between these 2 sides have been closely fought contests, with 12 of the last 18 matches decided by single figures and 7 of them by 2 points or less. The team to score the first try of the match has gone on to win 11 of the last 13 clashes and the half time leader has also won 14 of the last 16 meetings. Brisbane has scored the 1st try of the match in the last 4 meetings, while the Cowboys have scored the last try in 5 of the last 6 and they have also scored the last try in their 1st 3 matches of this season. The Broncos have covered a line in 74% of their matches at Suncorp Stadium since 2014, while the Cowboys have covered in 55% of their matches as an away side over the same period. 4 of the last 6 clashes have resulted in Unders for TMP’s, while 5 of the Broncos last 7 matches at home have also finished that way.

Preview

Excellent clash as we would expect, very hard to find much of a gap between them and playing at home has to be an advantage for the Broncos (and the Cows have lost their last 4 here). The Cowboys have some nice advantage on again playing with the same 17 week in week out and come off the soft walk through of the Roosters last week. Defensively they are very strong at present, and have been week on week offering up just 11 pts per game and there is no doubt that they have an air of positive confidence about themselves.

The Broncos were poor last week dropping a 10 point half time lead and failing to score in the second half. As many teams will they struggled defensively with the ball play and consistent off load game that the Panthers threw at them but they also lost control of the game with their key errors and missed tackle stats blowing out. While Milford has been in quality form the same can’t be said for Hunt who I think has been well off through these first 3 weeks and clearly must be struggling with confidence off the back of he late (and costly) error in the GF golden point time, facing up to the Cows here may well be an interesting challenge. He involvement has been poor, play making and touching the ball far less than required, making key defensive misses and some ordinary kick plays, the Broncos get probably get by most weeks covering up this but its key he improve for a contest like this.

I’m expecting that that loss last week and return home to a full house and big game contest will be good for the Broncos and they be up for the contest he. As we saw in the GF right now I think there is very little between these two, a key error, poor kick, moment of skill – that’s about all that separates them. Thurston v Hunt will be critical. As mentioned last week prior to the Cowboys thumping the Roosters I like good teams off an away loss returning home to a ground where they have some advantage and the Broncos certainly tick all of this profile this week and I lean to them in what should be a cracking game.


Raiders vs Titans

-4.0 Raiders

Stats

Titans have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Raiders at GIO Stadium but they come into this clash as the outsider and do so for the 4th week in a row. 5 of the last 6 meetings in Canberra have been decided by a margin of 1-12 points and all 3 of the Raiders matches in 2015 have also been close finishes. The Raiders are back at home and are1 of 2 sides that remain undefeated, while the Titans have lost their last 7 matches played on the road, the last 6 of them have been by a margin of 13+. There have been plenty of points on offer in recent clashes at GIO Stadium, with 7 of the last 8 clashes at the ground finishing Overs in TMP’s, with an average of 56 and the Raiders have also had Overs results in 8 of their last 10, including all 3 games of the current season. In the previous 6 clashes the Titans have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half and in 4 of the last 5 they have scored the last try of the match.

Preview

There is always risk with these two sides but I find it hard to get this any further than about 4 as a line either way, and just see up side with the Titans. The Raiders last two games come through the two sides yet to open their account with a win (Knights, Roosters), and both have copped a flogging or two already which surely reads as a thin form guide – in all reality the Raiders could well have lost both games so it’s hardly an inspiring or strong form reference. The Raiders remain without their two key halves, critical outs, lose one of their centres and given all of this disruption have had to resort to a very predicable attack pattern, and lets not forget they blew a 16 point lead last week and the week prior should never have got out with a win when down by a margin the the Roosters.

The Titans can be well prepared by Henry, they have won 2 of 3 and I think will fancy themselves here. Unlike many they also have a healthy enough away record, they are getting more out of a few of their key forwards than I expected and Ash Taylor is certainly starting to find his feet as a top grade #7 and a nice attacking combination with Roberts at #6. Plus 8.5 gets us over a key number and given the questionable form depth that the Raiders come through I think offers a key advantage, plus we are also playing through an early season period of weeks where a healthy plus line start can be a nice advantage.

Bet 2 units Titans +8.5  $1.80 Tabcorp


Roosters vs Eagles

+2.5 Roosters

Stats

Roosters have won 5 of the previous 7 clashes with the Sea Eagles and in 6 of the 7 meetings the winning margin has been by 1-12 points. The last 2 clashes at Allianz Stadium have resulted in a total of just 12 points, with both sides keeping the other to nil once each and only once from the last 7 meetings has the 1st try of the match been scored prior to the 8th minute. Despite having just 1 win to their credit, the Sea Eagles again start as the favourite and they, along with the Broncos are the only teams to start as the favourite in the opening 4 weeks. The Roosters are anchored at the bottom of the ladder with the worst defensive record and have conceded more than double the amount of points that they had after 3 Rounds last year.

Preview

Lot of focus on what the Roosters can offer here off 3 poor defeats two of which big thumping’s. Returning to their home track will help a little but with their list of key outs and now further injuries they are certainly up against things. I said pre season I wasn’t convinced with all the hype around Hastings and for mine he has been poor through these last few weeks, but certainly not on his own.

Eagles were very good on Monday, much better attitude and stiffened up there middle D, there are plenty of players who are critical to their teams performance (Thurston, etc) but possibly none more than the influence Brett Stewart has on the Eagles, we all know he’s a wizard in attack but he does so much to coordinate and direct their defence. They do come off the 5 day short turn around but that win should do them some good. With the Eagles but lots of ifs and buts about the game.


Dragons vs Panthers

-3.5 Dragons

Stats

The first of 6 matches on the road for the Panthers in the next 7 weeks when they take on the Dragons at WIN Stadium and despite a healthy recent record over the joint venture (have won 5 of the last 6), they have lost 9 of their last 11 games that have been played in Wollongong. The 1st points of the match have proved crucial when these sides meet as it’s now 8 times from the last 10 clashes that the side to open the scoring has gone on to win the match. Recent meetings have also been low scoring affairs with 8 of the last 9 matches resulting in Unders for TMP’s and 6 of the last 7 Dragons matches played at WIN Stadium have also finished Under. The Panthers have failed to cover the line in 5 of their last 6 away games and 4 of their last 5 as a road dog, while the Dragons have covered the line in 6 of their last 7 when playing at their true home ground (WIN Stadium or Kogarah).

Preview

The Dragons have to be opposed here, especially against a side that can play such high off load attack and create so much line break opportunity. Where do the Dragons points come from? They come off a hard slog in the wet where in my opinion the conditions made them look far better than they were, once again they could have camped themselves on the attacking 20 mtr line for 3 hours and still never looked like scoring a try and across three games they have scored just three tries? We saw last year that if an opponent can jump them with points they are in all sorts of trouble trying to find a way back into the game (and we saw this again two weeks ago at Cronulla). The Panthers were better last week, in particular in the second 40 where their offload game broke the Broncos up, they get Merrin and Blake back, Martin really looks the goods and that win might be a break through for them. If teh coach just lets them play some footy and doesn’t try to shackle it too much they should have too many points for this.

Bet 2 units Panthers +2.5  $1.91 Sportsbet


Warriors vs Knights

-16.5 Warriors

Stats

History shows that the Knights have recorded just 1 victory against the Warriors over the last 11 years when playing at Mt. Smart Stadium, losing 9 of 10. In recent times, these meetings have been closely fought contests, with 8 of the last 10 clashes having been decided by a margin of 1-12 points. The Knights are into a distant away game, where their record is poor, winning just 37% of them since 2013, while the Warriors have lost 11 straight and are 1 of 2 sides yet to register a point. Both sides have conceded 1st points in their opening 3 matches and both sides are yet to lead at half time. Consider Manu Vatuvei in first try scorer calculations as he has scored 10 tries in his past 8 games against Newcastle.

Preview

The Warriors have lost their last 10 yet as hard as I try I just can’t get them any closer than at least 18 points here, and I suspect this might well be the break through game for them. They were better against the Broncos, and then much better last week especially their attitude and commitment to defence and only got nailed late by a cool, professional Storm who make a habit of icing the clutch moments when it matters. Well they are not facing anything like the Storm here, a Knights side down 0-16 last week, got out with a draw and probably feel somewhat relaxed having released some of the pressure, terrible record as travelers especially to distant away games and with a very young in experienced list. The Warriors get the advantage of a 7 day back to back home gig and I’m expecting a very focused offering from a side now at a stage where they really want to put in and win. If as I suspect they get themselves going then they’ll grow with some confidence as the games unfolds, and they have plenty of points in them under such circumstances, if they aim up and manage this right they should win by a comfortable margin. 12 is a key number if you can bet this, or I’d be happy to play anything out to 14.

Bet 2 units Warriors -12.0  $1.90 Ubet  BB


Tigers vs Eels

+6.5 Tigers

Stats

Tigers have won 6 of the last 8 clashes with the Eels, including a 16 point win in the corresponding match on Easter Monday last year. Both sides have a poor record at ANZ Stadium, with the Tigers winning 6 of 15 over the last 3 seasons, while the Eels win last week over the Bulldogs was just their 3rd win at the ground from their last 22 matches. The Eels start as a favourite for the 1st time this season and they have a 50% record over the previous 3 seasons as a starting favourite. The Tigers have covered a line in 5 of their last 6 when getting a start, while the Eels have failed to cover the line in 7 of their last 9 when giving up a start. The Tigers have scored 17 tries in the 1st 3 weeks (took them until Round 7 in 2015 to score that many) and 12 of them have been scored via their right edge. Consider James Tedesco in try scorer calculations as he has scored 13 tries from 13 matches at ANZ Stadium, including 9 from his last 7.

Preview

Think the key here is the defensive stats, Eels conceding just 13 points a game after 3, Tigers conceding 26. The Eels defensive structures have been impressive and they come through a strong form line of Broncos, Cowboys and then nice win last week over Bulldogs. But, surprisingly Tigers have had the advantage and the wood on their opponents through recent years winning 6 of the last 8 H2H. On form, form lines and defensive commitment I like Eels but not a game I want to play in.


Sharks vs Storm

-3.5 Sharks

Stats

Storm has a dominant record over the Sharks, winning 10 wins of the past 11 encounters. Melbourne has also won 5 of the previous 7 clashes played at Shark Park. They have been comprehensive winners in the last 4 clashes, where all 4 wins have been by a margin of 13 +, with Melbourne averaging 38 points a game. They have scored the opening try of the match in the previous 11 clashes with the Sharks who have failed to score a 1 st half try in 7 of those 11 matches, averaging just 2 1st half points. Cronulla have won 5 of their last 7 at home, their 2 losses were against last weeks’ opponent in the Sea Eagles and this weeks’ opponent in the Storm. They are off the back of MNF and have only won 1 of their last 9 following a Monday fixture. The Sharks have scored 9 tries so far this season (ranked equal 8th), with 7 of the 9 having been scored attacking via their right edge.

Preview

Storm have quite a considerable recent record H2H here, winning 10 of the last 11 including 5 of the last 7 at the ground and have started the season 3 and 0, although I’m just not sure on the form strength just yet. They are professional and get the job done, but I’m just not completely sold on them up against better opponents and this might be a nice test. Sharks were poor last Monday and everything that was against them came to fruition, they return home, have a 7 day break and a nice challenge up against an opponent that should pose a nice contest. Their attack has been questionable, most of their tries season to date have come off kicks and they have failed to ball play off a couple of their leading forwards. Good game. I have a slight lean to the Sharks at home, but want to watch both and learn some more as to where they both are right now.


 


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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 4

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 1

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 1

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 1

 

AFL Round 1 Recommended Bet List

Bet 3 units Sydney-Collingwood Under 177.5  $1.90 Luxbet  BB

Bet 1 unit Hawthorn -6.5  $1.92 SportsBet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Richmond, GWS, Gold Coast, Sydney, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Hawthorn


Game Previews

 

Sydney v Collingwood

Swans will be advantaged by the rescheduling of this game from ANZ Stadium to their SCG home along with the return of Buddy Franklin. They are notorious slow starters to the season and with the loss of some key players, I expect them to be happy to roll up their sleeves for an arm wrestle and try and grind out a win rather than playing pretty footy. Collingwood looked sharp in playing direct footy in the pre-season but we all know that counts for nought when the ball is bounced for Round 1.

The Pies have a phenomenal under record when interstate going under the total match score line in 17 of their last 20 interstate games and in 33 of their last 45 night games. Further, the last five clashes between these two teams have yielded total match scores of 163, 159, 171, 157 and 166 points, all under the line offered for this match. Showers are forecast the day before the match and there is currently a 60% chance of a light shower on match day. If this eventuates, it will further increase the chances of going under the total match score line.

The reduction of interchanges from 120 to 90 is sure to be a big talking point in the opening weeks and could potentially increase scoring, particularly with players yet to reach peak fitness. I have considered the impact of this change and judged that the line is still sufficiently high enough for us to bet. The market agrees with the line moving down 3-4 points with some bookies since our SMS on Tuesday that recommended subscribers bet under the 177.5 line. This line is still available with SportsBet for latecomers.

Bet 3 units Sydney-Collingwood under 177.5 $1.90 Luxbet


Geelong v Hawthorn

Since lifting the Kennett Curse, the Hawks have dominated the Cats winning their last four contests by 36, 61, 36 and 23 points. I believe the market appears to be under-estimating the Hawks on the basis of them missing some key personnel, while over-estimating the Cats based on the hype of Dangerfield’s arrival and the likely improvement to come.  However, the facts are that Hawthorn are still the reigning premiers and are playing at home against a Cats outfit that missed the eight last year. Hawthorn are also proven at covering the spread in big games, covering 16 of their last 23 matches when they started a 0.5-15.5 point favourite.

Bet 1 unit Hawthorn -6.5  $1.92 SportsBet


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Richmond v Carlton – Due to Richmond outs the Tigers have drifted 4-6 points in some markets since Monday afternoon and are no good things to cover the ATS line. There is nothing to like about Carlton either – they  were a terrible 2-9 ATS in night games last season and have only covered 12 of 36 night games across 2013-15. Danger match!


Melbourne v GWS –  GWS has covered the line in 14 of 19 games as a favourite in their history but we have to respect Paul Roos getting the Demons up for a R1 upset over Suns in similar circumstances last season.


Gold Coast v Essendon – The last five matches between these two clubs have yielded 192, 197, 187, 193 and 255 points, well over the total match score line posted and I would normally recommend a 2-3 unit bet on the overs. Also, Essendon have a good cover record at night covering the line in 21 of their last 31 night games. However, due to their massive list turnover, we will not be touching any Essendon games for at least five rounds until we see and understand what the Dons have to offer. Danger match!


North Melbourne v Adelaide – Ripper game! Kangas have covered 20 of their last 29 matches with seven or more days to prepare but have lost four of their last five versus the Crows. They have also lost six straight season openers under Brad Scott. Danger match!


Western Bulldogs v Fremantle – Another ripper! Freo have won four straight versus the Dogs and covered the line in 30 of their last 45 matches with a seven day or more prep.


Port Adelaide v St Kilda – Saints have failed to cover the line in 18 of their last 25 matches away from the MCG and Etihad.


West Coast v Brisbane – Eagles covered the line in 16 of 22 matches last season as they rose up the pecking order but I expect that to level out this season. Eagles have also covered the line in 10 of their last 14 when favoured by 30.5 points or more.


 

 


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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 1

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 3

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 3

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 3 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-15.5 Cowboys vs Roosters

-6.5 Bulldogs vs Eels

Even Knights vs Raiders

+5.5 Panthers vs Broncos

-2.5 Titans v Tigers

Even Warriors vs Storm

+5.5 Dragons vs Rabbits

-1.0 Eagles vs Sharks


NRL Round 3 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Cowboys -10.5  $1.90 Centrebet

Bet 1 unit Panthers-Broncos Under 39.5  $1.91 Centrebet

Bet 2 units Dragons-Rabbits Under 42.5  $1.90 Sportsbet  BB

Bet 1 unit Sharks +1.5  $1.91 Centrebet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Cowboys, Bulldogs, Knights, Broncos, Titans, Storm, Rabbits, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Cowboys vs Roosters

-15.5 Cowboys

Stats

Roosters have more often than not, enjoyed their trips to Townsville, winning the 1st 7 clashes with the Cowboys at the ground, while things have evened up since then, with wins shared equally at 5 a piece dating back to 2005. The Roosters have won 3 of the 4 most recent encounters, while in the last 6 meetings, the side to score the 1st try has gone on to win the match. Both sides are on a short 5 day turnaround and off the back of a loss, but the Roosters still have a number of key outs and are on the road for the 2nd week in a row with a distant away game which hardly makes for an ideal preparation. The Cowboys will be stinging after their 1st loss as the defending Premiers and they have won 10 of their last 12 at home, scoring on average 28 points. 3 of the last 5 clashes have topped 60 points and with hot and humid conditions in Townsville, there is the likely hood of this match opening up and offering plenty of points, particularly if the Roosters fail to address their issues in defence.

Preview

I like quality form teams off an away loss returning home as the Cowboys do here, and in this instance we are talking the Premiers off a good quality form game but loss. The Cowboys have solid structure, a consistent quality 17 week in week out at present an play at home with this outstanding long term winning advantage including the recent run of winning 10 of their last 12. I see them playing to their strengths down each edge in attack and working over the general inexperienced edge defenders of Roosters, plus the Cowboys defence has again been excellent through recent weeks and will pose a significant barrier for the rookie halves and attack play of their opponents.

Lets put into perspective how poor the Roosters have been. Flogged first week by the Rabbits in an arch rival game, they then folded quicker than a card table last week when they had that game shot to pieces against an opponent who a) had their two most important players and play makers out, and b) played the second half with just 15 players. Disgracefully poor. They are desperately missing the quality and leadership of their 3 key outs and then the impact of the cap enforced list shake up that they will be going through all season long. They now face back to back distant away games and this second one a tough ask into Townsville.

Thurston had a poor night last week with many key errors, he doesn’t do that often, Cowboys are strong at home and should have a point to prove here, I’m keen that they will.

Bet 2 units Cowboys -10.5  $1.90 Centrebet


Bulldogs vs Eels

-6.5 Bulldogs

Stats

History shows that the Bulldogs have owned the Eels in recent seasons, winning 9 of the last 10 clashes since 2011, scoring more than double the points scored by Parramatta. The Eels have had a horror run at ANZ Stadium, losing 19 of their last 21, while the Bulldogs have won 6 of their last 7 at the ground. Both sides favour the Unders in TMP’s at ANZ Stadium, the Bulldogs have had 6 of their last 8 games finish that way, while the Eels have had the same result in 6 of their last 7 at the venue and Unders has also been the outcome in 3 of the last 4 clashes. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of the last 9 match ups, while the Eels have also conceded the 1st try in 8 of their last 10. Semi Radradra has been the Eels 1st try scorer in 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Bulldogs.

Preview

I think the handicap and market are about right but this is a game I think best to watch as after just two games I am still trying to get a quality read on both. The Bulldogs were nothing but impressive first up but the Eagles formline looks pretty soft right now and they then came out the other side of a dogged arm wrestle with a last minute win, but there also remains some doubt over Reynolds. Also, much like last week here they will match up against another big physical forward line up. The Eels come off two good efforts, last week a nice win over the Cowboys, again a tough physical contest and significant benefit with their halves back together and Foran calling the shots. But they lose two key forwards (Peats and M’au) and play at a ground that they just can’t turn a trick losing 19 of their last 21 games here and up against an opponent that has dominated them including 6 x 13+ results out of their last 9 wins.

The Bulldogs should hold lots of advantage here and I expect they win but it’s just not a game I want to roll into.


Knights vs Raiders

Even

Stats

The 1st away game of the season for the Raiders and the 1st home game for the Knights, but the home ground has proved to be little advantage for Newcastle in recent meetings with Canberra, as the Raiders have won 3 of the last 4 matches played at Hunter Stadium, while they have also won 4 of the last 5 H2H. More often than not, these meetings have been one sided affairs with 8 of the last 9 and 13 of the previous 15 clashes having been decided by a margin of 13+. There are usually plenty of points on offer when these sides meet, with a TMP average of 48 since 2008 and 3 of the last 5 have totaled 58 or more. A Raiders try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 4 meetings, while the Knights have conceded the 1st try in both of their games this season.

Preview

Knight looks a little stronger this week and the return home for their first game her off two very poor away offerings. They are hard to like but I came them some chance of improvement with some focus and pressure on them. No knock for the Raiders, very gutsy win last week but they could very easily have been 0/2 into this and are without 3 key players, in particular their two halves, into an away game and with the possibility of being happy with themselves off two wins, they have to be some risk.

Hate the game, weakest tip of the round but gave the Knights at home some chance of the upset.


Panthers vs Broncos

+5.5 Panthers

Stats

Home ground advantage has been beneficial when these sides have met recently with the home team winning 7 of the last 8 matches. A loss for the Panthers will give them a 0-3 start for the 1st time since 2002, while Brisbane are looking to open their account with 3 straight wins for the 1st time since 2009. The Panthers have won the previous 3 clashes with the Broncos at Pepper Stadium and in 4 of the last 5 meetings they have scored the 1st try of the match. Both sides currently sit mid pack in points for, while Brisbane is ranked at the top of the table for points conceded, having conceded just 2 tries. In 5 of the previous 6 clashes played at Pepper Stadium, the TMP’s have topped 40. After 2 narrow losses, it’s an important game for the Panthers as they play 6 of their next 7 games following this 1 away from Pepper Stadium.

Preview

Had the first two rounds have been 70 minute affairs the Panthers would be 2 and 0 into a big blockbuster at home vs the Broncos. Instead they have significant heat and expectation on their tail at 0 and 2 into a top of the table opponent. The Panthers previous record against the broncos has been good, especially when at home, and Griffin also has an excellent long term record of wins over Bennett.

I like what the Broncos are doing, building nicely, but this looks a bit of a trick game for mine for them. Off 3 nice sound wins to open the season (including UK), never really threatened in each, and possibly a few things falling nicely for them with both the Eels and then Warriors copping key in game injury outs which no doubt had some end influence. Everyone singing their praises, this whole scenario can lead to some subtle complacency.

We know that we’ll see bounce back up sets through rounds 3, 4 and 5 as sides just like the Panthers who have had lots of positive off season media and focus start the season with poor results and the need to perform intensifies. Their attack worries me, again last week 16 was not enough to win and more importantly they didn’t trouble the scoreboard with a try after the 11th minute, but their defence has been pretty well structured and for the most part sound and that is what I expect they will again focus on here.

A Panthers upset would not surprise me, especially at home, but I can’t tip against the Broncos. It does look a solid physical defensive arm wrestle, something the Broncos are very good with when on the road with an amazing long term record now of 73% under total results when interstate away (off a long sample), I think that’s the right way to play the game.

Bet 1 unit Panthers-Broncos Under 39.5  $1.91 Centrebet


Titans v Tigers

-2.5 Titans

Stats

After recording 5 consecutive home wins, the away side has now won 5 of the last 6 clashes when these 2 sides have met. The Tigers are on a short 5 day turnaround and it’s their 1 st away game of the season, they have the worst record in the comp in matches classed as distant away or interstate, winning just 2 of 10 since 2013, with 7 of the 8 losses having a margin result of 13+, in 8 of the last 9 of them they have failed to cover the line and they have also lost 14 of their previous 18 matches played outside of Sydney. Ironically, the only 2 wins from the 10 matches referred to have been against the Titans. The Titans have covered the line in the last 3 meetings and have led at half time in 5 of the last 6, but only in 1 of those have they outscored the Tigers in the 2nd half. The Titans have scored the 1 st try of the match in 5 of the last 6, while the Tigers have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 5 of the last 6. In margin outcomes, 5 of the last 7 clashes have been decided by 13+. James Tedesco has already scored 5 tries in 2 games and in both weeks he has scored the last try of the match.

Preview

I love the Tigers positive attack and right now no team is playing right to left ball shift with the skill, speed and execution that they are. I have to have a question over the depth through those two games (Warriors and Eagles) as they are now certainly looking two weak opponents but the Tigers will also have grown significant confidence. The knock has to be their away form, and in particular their our of Sydney distant away form where they have won only 4 of their last 18 such games. very few teams crumble when boarding a plane like the Tigers do.

Titans get their chance, off a home win first up but decidedly weak opponent through then an ok road offering in Melbourne which is tough for most. It’s the early weeks of the season but they are playing with some spirit and their forwards have been better than I expected while Taylor at #7 is going to be a very good player.

Could be plenty of positive attacking footy on offer here, I have to risk the Tigers on the road as a tip but happy to stay well away from the game.


Warriors vs Storm

Even Warriors

Stats

More often than not, clashes between these sides have been tight and torrid affairs, with 8 of the last 11 and 11 of the last 13 meetings at Mt Smart Stadium having been decided by a margin of 1-12 points. Only once in the previous 13 clashes has the side leading at half time been run down and only once in the last 6 matches have Melbourne led the Warriors at half time. Melbourne has had the better of the Warriors in the back end of matches though, as only once in the previous 11 clashes have the Warriors outscored Melbourne in the 2nd half and only once in their past 11 matches have the Warriors outscored any opponent in the 2nd half. A Warriors try has been the first scoring play in 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Storm, while Melbourne has scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 5 of the last 6. The Warriors have now lost 10 in a row, with their last win coming way back in Round 18 of last year, it was against this weeks’ opponent in the Storm.

Preview


Dragons vs Rabbits

+5.5 Dragons

SCG

Stats

The Rabbitohs have won 7 of the last 8 clashes with the Dragons and they have also won their last 5 matches played at the SCG, while the Dragons have lost their last 3 at the iconic venue. Souths have scored both the 1st points of the match and the 1st points of the 2nd half in the last 6 clashes with the Dragons, while the 1st try of the match hasn’t been scored until after the 7th minute in the last 5 meetings. The Dragons conceded 30 points last week and they have lost 8 of their last 9 games following a match where they have conceded 30 points or more. The Rabbitohs have scored 90 points in their opening 2 matches and are yet to concede a 1st half point. The last 4 clashes have finished Unders in TMP’s with only 1 of them topping 32 points and only 1 of the last 7 matches played at the SCG have topped 32. With a wet track forecast and the lack of points in the Dragons, the Unders looks a likely result.

Preview

Couple of keys to this game, obviously what the Dragons dish up in terms of attitude and effort, and the fact that this is being played at the SCG. It’s common knowledge that McGreggor gave his players a massive spray in the dressing rooms after their flogging last week at Shark Park so I’m sure that has continued on this week and being only week 3 I’m happy to cut them some slack to at least aim up here. Clearly (and once again) their attack structures and execution options are terrible, and its this lack of line break and points scoring options that then compounds the pressure on them mentally and makes them also have to work so much extra physically – it never ceases to amaze me how little some of these coaches appear to understand what their attack should be about and more importantly how dumb and basic they make their approach.

The Rabbits have been impressive but right now it looks about as impressive as kissing your sister as the form behind then is oh so thin (Knights, Roosters). How they are doing things is sharp, there appears an enhanced preparedness to play with the ball while also smashing it forward, they have a good kicking game, smart halves with some skill and speed and Inglis. Looking forward to seeing them up against a real test, but they look to be ticking over nicely.

The foundation of what McGreggor has done over the last 18 months has been defence, if he gets their heads back in the game this week then I expect they’ll look to make this another tough physical game. Being at the SCG and some chance of rain, and the fact that 6 of their last 7 games here have all gone under with none of them topping 32 points, plus the longer H2H record between them both being similar and question marks over what attack / points the Dragons bring to the contest then the under total looks the obvious way to play this.

Bet 2 units Dragons-Rabbits Under 42.5  $1.90 Sportsbet  BB


Eagles vs Sharks

-1.0 Eagles

Stats

History shows that the Sea Eagles have won 12 of the last 13 clashes with the Sharks and 7 of the last 8 played at Brookvale Oval and start as the favourite here despite being comprehensively beaten in their opening 2 matches. A loss to the Sharks will be just the 2nd time in a dozen years that Manly have opened their season with 3 consecutive defeats. The Sea Eagles have covered the line in their last 4 meetings with the Sharks, while 3 of the last 4 match ups have finished Unders in TMP’s. The Sharks have a poor record in Monday Night Football, recording just 5 wins from their past 21 games, while the Sea Eagles record isn’t much better, with just 2 wins from their last 6 Monday fixtures at Brookvale. Since 2013, the home side has won more than 80% of matches in MNF during the opening 5 weeks. Jorge Taufua has scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in the Sea Eagles opening 2 games.

Preview

If this game was played anywhere else than Brookvale I would near declare the Sharks. If what I have been seeing of the Eagles through the first two weeks is right then they are as soft as putty through the middle and Ms Fulton and Barrett have completely farked up buying the right forwards as part of their off season buying spree and rebuild of this list. The Bulldogs trampled them down the middle third of the park in game one and almost giggled as they did so, and low and behold the Tigers then did something similar last week and I certainly wouldn’t rate the Tigers middle up there with the toughest in this comp. The Sharks bring this as a strength, they have size, muscle and a preparedness to play direct, roll forward for yardage and then tough in defence. They come through a very good form hit out against the Cowboys who certainly offer a benchmark for measure in the big physical forward pack stakes, and then worked over and held the Dragons big pack with some ease last week.

The Eagles get Stewart back but from what I here will also make a further 2 to 3 team changes as they search for their first win. With all the rain of the last few days and Brookvale not being a track that drains very well I’d suggest we will see a wet track and the Sharks heighten their intent of playing this as physical and through the middle for as much as possible. The line for this game has seen a 5 point turn around across the last 5 days, moving from an early +3.5 Sharks to the now -1.5. The early position we have, or taking the Sharks straight up is the way I would play this.

Bet 1 unit Sharks +1.5  $1.91 Centrebet


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 3

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 2

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 2

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 2 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+3.5 Panthers vs Bulldogs

-12.5 Broncos vs Warriors

-1.5 Raiders vs Roosters

-14.5 Rabbits vs Knights

Even Eels vs Cowboys

-6.5 Sharks vs Dragons

-18.5 Storm vs Titans

+7.5 Tigers vs Eagles


NRL Round 2 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Rabbits -10.0  $1.92 Centrebet

Bet 1 unit Eels +4.5  $1.92 Crownbet

Bet 2 units Broncos H2H $1.32 x Rabbits H2H $1.32 x Storm >6.5 $1.35  Sportsbet  BB

Bet 1 unit Sharks-Dragons Under 39.5  $1.90 Centrebet

 

NRL Round 3 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Cowboys -10.5  $1.90 Centrebet

I have this marked -14.5 as a minimum, Cowboys return home off a loss, Roosters face back to back away games this a distant travel, were touched up by Rabbits and should never have lost to Raiders.

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Bulldogs, Broncos, Roosters, Rabbits, Eels, Sharks, Storm, Eagles


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Panthers vs Bulldogs

+3.5 Panthers

Stats

The Panthers have a healthy record over the Dogs when playing at home, winning 6 of the last 8 clashes played at Pepper Stadium. Recent meetings have been tight affairs with 6 of the last 7 clashes decided by a single figure margin, while only twice in the last 8 meetings have the Panthers trailed the Bulldogs at half time. The home side has scored the opening try of the match in 9 of the last 10 clashes, while 3 of the last 4 meetings have finished Unders in TMP’s. In the last 7 clashes the Panthers have been unable to outscore the Bulldogs in the 2nd half, with the Bulldogs outscoring Penrith 100 – 48. The Panthers are off the back of a 5 day preparation and their record on a short turnaround is not positive, with a 5-8 result since 2012. A win to the Dogs will be the 1 st time since 2012 that they have been able to register wins in the opening 2 weeks of the competition.

Preview

It’s game 2 and I’m happy to remain cautious here, but a) if I was to speculate at double figure odds a team to challenge the top few this year then right now it would be the Bulldogs, and b) but for the fact this is a milestone 50th Anniversary game for the club I’d be very happy to take the Panthers on.

I caught up with a close contact during the last week who is close to the action at the Bulldogs. Late last season Hasler did a massive overhaul of their fitness staff including the appointment of his number one man from his time at Brookvale, all of which has led to a major shake up to their fitness and conditioning approach. It’s common news that they have dropped weight off many of their big men, but my understanding is they have also significantly changed and tweaked their aerobic fitness. Hasler has an approach which I love, size, muscle, power through the middle, a 9 man forward assault, give it to them, give it to them and then just give it to them some more! Having stripped some excess carriage off his big boys, improved their mobility and endurance we then saw some pretty ominous signs last week as to where they might be headed this season as they trampled the Eagles through the middle of the park. Better still they add Klemmer to their list for this week! Off a dam nice win, weak opponent offering and their first big physical hit out they might have some risk of let down, so I want to see what we get second up.

Long term readers would know I am no rap for Griffin as a coach at this level, and am staggered that he has got a gig again and for the recent love affair that Gould has had for him. It will be short lived. He was lucky enough to have Lockyer prop him up for a couple of yrs when he first stepped in at the Broncos, has next to zero idea how to coach attack and I am yet again convinced they will struggle through this season. Their attack last Saturday was putrid, what the hell they have been doing through their ball work sessions across the last 3 months I’ll give up, terrible structure, patterns of play, no idea how to set their sets of 6 up in the final 30 mtrs to play set plays with an intention to create a hole, an overlap, move defenders to advantage or puncture the line. But we’ve seen this all before. And my mail through recent days is that they are to have only one formal ball work session this week.. I spent time under two first grade coaches who knew how to coach attack and we did a minimum of 3 to 4 quality sessions a week, not so as to robot them, but such that they were will drilled, knew what to do and how to react under pressure and in certain parts of the field, and were well armed with set plays and sets of 6 that had attack and points as the focus.

I want to look at the Panthers again, plus it’s a major milestone game for the club that will have all the trappings of old boys weekend, history, tradition and alike and so the players may well pull a major effort out. But I was nothing but impressed with the Bulldogs last week, it wasn’t the winning, it was the how.


Broncos vs Warriors

-12.5 Broncos

Stats

After 3 consecutive losses to the Warriors, the Broncos have won the 2 most recent clashes and a win this week will make it 3 straight victories over the Warriors for the 1st time since 2000. Brisbane have the benefit of an 8 day preparation and a bumper crowd for their 1st home game of the season, while the Warriors are on the road for the 2nd week in a row and have lost 4 of their last 5 at the ground. In 6 of the last 7 clashes (including the last 4 straight) the winning margin has been by 1-12 points, while 3 of the last 4 meetings played at Suncorp Stadium have totaled 50 points or more. The away side has scored the opening try of the match in 4 of the last 5 clashes, while the team to score the 1st try has gone on to win 8 of the last 10 match ups. The Broncos have won 9 of their last 10 Friday night matches at Suncorp Stadium and they have also scored the opening try in 9 of those, while they have covered the line in 8 of the 10. The Warriors have now lost 9 in a row, conceding an average of 32 points a game, which includes their last 5 away games.

Preview

Again, if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck then its a bloody duck!! I have said for months the Warriors are gone, left them out of my top 8 and only saw all the reasons why again on show last weekend. The joint is a rabble, has been for many years and again they will waste another year as non performers. I have no doubt (and nor does he) that the coach will be sacked through the coming weeks and the next cycle of drama and alike will all start again.

I keep reminding myself that it’s round 2, they may respond for a week and Bennett is just focusing on his defensive structures right now, but if the Broncos are half serious and do want to play with the ball they could open this right up as the Warriors response will be meek under any sort of sustained pressure.


Raiders vs Roosters

-1.5 Raiders

Stats

The Roosters have won the last 3 clashes with the Raiders but those 3 wins were all with the home ground advantage, their record at GIO Stadium isn’t quite as attractive, with only 2 wins from their last 8 visits to the ground. Another loss this week will make it just the 2nd time in more than 20 years that the Roosters have lost their opening 2 games of a season, while a win for the Raiders will give them 2 wins to open a season for the 1st time since 2005. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of their last 10 matches against the Raiders, who have conceded the 1st try in 6 of their previous 9 at home. The Raiders halves had a hand in 4 of their 5 tries last week and with both of them now missing for an extended period, the Raiders will find things very difficult.

Preview

Likely another hot Saturday afternoon game. I have penalised (handicap) the Raiders heavily with the loss of their two halves, major outs then duplicated with them both being injured, that has to put a massive hole in their attack abilities, combinations, kicking game and leadership. The Roosters come off an embarrassing offering first up leaking 42 points, they have a similar list and I’m sure Robinson has been all over hem like a rash this week getting their attitude and heads right to be aiming up here, but they still lack class and experience in key roles in particular in the halves.

A very tricky game to try and line up given the key outs. I’m cutting the Roosters some slack to improve with some bounce back for round 2 off such a poor offering, and they get their chance with such key outs for the Raiders. The home side also have to be very suss into the second half off such a punishing game in the heat last week. All the stats suggest this is an open attacking game with lots of points and a likely total points over bet, but I am staying out given some many key attack play makers are not playing (Austin, Sezer, Pearce).


Rabbits vs Knights

-14.5 Rabbits

Stats

The Rabbitohs have a dominant recent record over the Knights, recording 5 consecutive wins and they have outscored their opponent 102 points to 16 from the last 2 encounters. It’s their 1st game of the season at ANZ Stadium, where they won 7 of 10 in season 2015, but covered a line in only 3 of those. They conceded the 1st try of the match in 8 of 10 at the ground last year, while 7 of the 10 matches finished Unders in TMP’s. They have a couple of key outs in Sutton & Reynolds, while they welcome back Keary looks set to return. The Knights find themselves away from home for the 2nd week in a row after being soundly beaten by a side that ranked 14th in attack in 2015. They won only 4 of 12 on the road last year and 8 of their last 9 losses have been by a margin of 13+.

Preview

Very hard to see how the Knights compete here and they face back to back away / travel games. Rabbits have a key loss in Reynolds who was outstanding last week but they get a suitable replacement in Keary, plus they get George Burgess into their forward line up.

Not a lot to be said here, Rabbits have an excellent long term record here at home, and have won their last 5 straight over the Knights. I have the Rabbits rated at present somewhere around 3rd spot and the Knights bottom two and they come off a poor loss to another bottom table side first up leaking 30 points. I have the Rabbits 12 to 16 point winners.

Bet 1 unit Rabbits -10.0  $1.92 Centrebet


Eels vs Cowboys

Even

Stats

The Cowboys have won 6 of the last 7 meetings with the Eels, including their last effort at Pirtek Stadium when they overcame a 24 point deficit, scoring 30 points in 25 minutes. The Cowboys have dominated the Eels in the 2 nd halves in recent matches, scoring a combined total of 100 points to 10 from the last 4 clashes. The home side has scored the opening try of the match in the last 6 clashes, while the Cowboys have scored the last try of the match in the previous 7 meetings. The Cowboys 1st away game of the season and they will be looking to continue on their winning way as an away side after a record breaking 9 wins on the road after 26 Rounds in 2015, they also won 7 of 8 in Sydney which equals the amount of wins that they had achieved in Sydney over the previous 3 seasons combined. It’s a different story for Parramatta who has now lost 7 of their last 8 at Pirtek Stadium, while they have conceded the 1st try of the match in 8 of their last 9 at the ground.

Preview

As suggested last week I have nothing but respect for the Cowboys and am not looking to deliberately lay them week after week but into this match up and at this ground I expect this to be close and the Eels a significant chance of winning.

The Cowboys were back in the groove last week, a nice tough arm wrestle, they had enough when it mattered and their defence was sound. Having now knocked up that round one home victory they head to a ground that their long term record at is very poor, and a big physical opponent who also come through a strong form reference and have key ins. The Cowboys have lost 6 of their last 8 games at this ground, it should be 7 of 8 as they were down by 30 here last season and turned on an amazing late escape. They have confidence and solid combination, no doubt, but for what ever reason this ground has often made them look poor. Unlike last year they will now face an Eels line up at full strength.

Foran is a major in, plus Norman will be back who was a major loss in the first half last week. I liked a lot of what I saw from the Eels, in particular their attack set up and structures, they are prepared to ask questions and play with the ball and have an off load game in the middle that is going to open many sides up. They have a significant long term record as a home underdog (72% off a long sample) and will be keen to get themselves a major scalp and their first win.

I want to be with the Eels at home, I think they can cause an upset and the +4.5 looks a nice position given their long term record and advantage when at home and receiving the line. Looks a very good game.

Bet 1 unit Eels +4.5  $1.92 Crownbet


-6.5 Sharks vs Dragons

-6.5 Sharks

Stats

The Dragons have won 5 of the last 7 clashes with the Sharks and 4 of the previous 7 meetings at Remondis Stadium. The Sharks have averaged less than 10 points a game against the Dragons since 2009 and only twice in the last 9 clashes have they scored more than 12 points. They have also scored more than 6 1st half points in only 2 of the previous 15 clashes with the Dragons. Only once from the last 7 meetings have the Sharks scored the 1st points of the match and only once in those 7 have they gone to half time with a lead. The Dragons are off the back of MNF where their record is poor, but they have won 6 of their last 8 following a Monday night game. The 1st home game for the Sharks, where they had a 50% record last year, averaging 18 points a game and on 6 occasions last year, the Sharks opened the scoring with a Penalty Goal when playing at home. This is the only match of the Round featuring 2 last start losers, ensuring 1 of these 2 teams will be anchored towards the bottom of the ladder.

Preview

Local derby, always a good clash where the Dragons have held the recent advantage winning 5 of the last 7. Sharks come out of a good form reference and game last week against the Cowboys, they defended well but lacked some key combination and polish to their attack in a tough physical arm wrestle. They lose Gallen which I’m not that sure is such a big loss these days as he is very much at the end of career and seems to make a habit these days of getting in the way in attack more often than not and I like Bukuya as a player as he has nice foot work and can hit a hole. The Dragons also come out of a good form reference losing to the Storm in Melbourne although there were times in that game that it looked like it might get away from them. It’s noted that McGreggor likes to focus much of his offseason and early months on defence so I don’t expect much different here.

Dragons were competitive last Monday and certainly had a number of key calls go against them late in the game which proved telling. Packer was good and will only improve with further match fitness. Their attack still looks short on combination and set plays and still very slow and predicable getting things started our of dummy half.

Just looks like a physical game of chess here, two sides searching for a win who don’t like each other all that much into an early season match up where defence is likely to be the winner. Likely tough tight arm wrestle, I like the unders bet interest.

Bet 1 unit Sharks-Dragons Under 39.5  $1.90 Centrebet


Storm vs Titans

-18.5 Storm

Stats

The Storm has won 7 of the previous 9 meetings with the Titans and 6 of the 8 clashes in Melbourne. Melbourne are at home for the 2nd week in a row, while it’s the 1st away game of the season for the Titans who have struggled for road wins, with an average of 41% over the previous 3 seasons. The Storm have scored the opening try of the match in 8 of the last 10 clashes, while a Titans Penalty Goal has been the 1st scoring play in 3 of the last 8 encounters. A winning margin of 1-12 points has been the result in 5 of the last 6 meetings, while the 1 st try of the match hasn’t been scored until after the 7th minute in 5 of the last 6. The last 4 matches have finished Overs in TMP’s and this has also been the result in 6 of the last 8 clashes played in Melbourne. In the last 6 clashes, the Storm have been unable to go to half time with a lead, while only once in the last 9 meetings have they been outscored by the Titans in the 2nd half.

Preview

I found it hard to get this any closer than the 18.5 as they just look poles apart in quality and offering. The Storm have the advantage of back to back home games and a nice healthy week at home preparing for their next game and have a quality full list. They were rusty last week, came from behind and then had opportunities to put the result well beyond reach yet didn’t and I’m sure Bellamy has been very angry and focused this week on their game management and control, taking a grip and then putting the foot right down. The Titans were game last week but that form line in touching up the Knights doesn’t read very well and that contest was the weakest by far of the round for mine and this is a very very different match up. Henry is good at getting his teams up and prepared but the Storm at home is a task.

Hard to see anything else than the Storm aiming up here, especially on the back of what I suspect has been a very days of Bellamy climbing all over them and wanting 80 minutes of perfection here.


Tigers vs Eagles

+7.5 Tigers

Stats

The Sea Eagles have won 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Tigers, but they have lost 4 of the last matches 5 played at Leichhardt Oval. There have been plenty of points on offer in recent clashes, with the last 4 meetings totaling 48 points or more, while 5 of the last 6 Tigers matches at Leichhardt Oval have finished Overs in TMP’s. 4 of the last 5 meetings have resulted in a margin of 13+ and the same margin has been the result in 8 of the Tigers last 9 matches at Leichhardt Oval (with the Tigers losing 7 of those 8). A Sea Eagles try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 meetings and they have also scored the last try in 4 of the last 5. The Tigers have lost 6 of their last 8 games of MNF, while the Sea Eagles have won 6 of their last 8 Monday fixtures.

Preview

Final team lists and key ins a major interest here, with Brooks and Halatau back for the Tigers and interest as to where Stewart returns for the Eagles.

In trying to line up this game the key is the likely patterns of play. The Eagles showed a soft underbelly last week being trampled through the middle which they have reacted to by making some key changes to their front row and middle set up, but the Tigers won’t look to play this through the middle as that is not their strength or focus and we are likely to get an attack led shoot out. There was a lot to like about the Tigers attacking efforts in the first half last week but I qualify that but also reminding us that it was against a feeble disinterested Warriors defence. I also thought a few of their tries came off large doses of luck, which happens, but these two issues question the depth of the result let alone how they then also defended poorly through the second 40. Brooks is a huge in, a classy #7 and his combinations with the #6 and #1 will take them a long way here.

The Eagles have to improve and there will be significant pressure on them to do so. Walker looked to struggle at #6 last week while Cherry-Evans didn’t step up with the type of authority required in game management and direction. This raises a key point into these weeks ahead, DCE has not been a noted play director in the past with Foran running the show to class effect and the Eagles certainly looked rudderless last week.

I lean slightly to the Eagles on the bounce back, a big kick up the backside this week and a desperate need to win, but the Tigers are in this up to their eye balls and if they can through some positive attack (and possibly points) at their opponent early on then they’ll only grow with confidence and could well open this game right up. A game I marked as one to just watch and learn from.


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 2

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 1

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 1

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


 

Rd 1 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+2.5 Eels vs Broncos

-6.5 Eagles vs Bulldogs

-7.5 Raiders vs Panthers

+9.5 Tigers vs Warriors

+6.5 Cowboys vs Sharks

Even Roosters vs Rabbits

-2.5 Titans vs Knights

-8.5 Storm vs Dragons


NRL Round 1 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Eels-Broncos Under 40.5  $1.90 Centrebet

Bet 1 unit Raiders -3.5  $1.92 Crownbet  BB

Bet 1 unit Sharks +8.0  $1.95 Tabcorp

 

Being cautious to start the season, history tells me that across the last 6 seasons we have had opening 5 to 6 rounds where underdogs have won up to 60% of games outright, while trying to get a read on the form and more general form lines I will also be looking to limit exposure.

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Eagles, Raiders, Warriors, Cowboys, Rabbits, Titans, Storm


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

 

Eels vs Broncos

+2.5 Eels

Looks significant doubt over Foran which if out would move my handicap to -6.0, they are also without Watmough and have a list of key signings and team changes. Broncos are without Maranta and Reed and look well ready off an impressive hit out in the UK. The Eels record at home had been very good through recent seasons until last season with it again falling away, most recently losing 6 of last 7 at home. The Broncos are one of the more professional “road” teams in the comp, won 5 of the last 7 when away to finish the H and A season last yr and have won 3 of their last 4 at Parramatta.

Should Foran not play it looks to put a very different complexion across the game, and importantly the leadership and direction of the Eels play. They have added some quality in key areas of their game, but I’d be surprised if Coach Arthur plays things any differently than he has in the past at that is that he loves a big physical forward pack that likes to belt its way through and control the middle of the park while also working over their opponent. In watching key sections of the Eels last trial against the Panthers things looked very much the same. If done well they are looking to create some physical advantage while providing their halves with some room to play.

The Broncos looked very much like the Broncos in their UK hit out, very professional, well drilled, lots of discipline, ball control and then field position management, all the quality stuff we saw last year. The Broncos dropped their bundle off their UK game in opening the season last year being flogged first up at home by the then defending Premiers the Rabbits, I’m sure Bennett will be all over this and looking for something far more of his liking here (and given his press conference today I’m sure he has been all over his players through recent days ensuring he is knocking any hint of complacency out of them).

This looks like a nice tough arm wrestle for a long way, and I’m expecting both sides up for the occasion. Arthur is noted for being able to motivate and get his charges up and he will have had this game set for some weeks, and they did jump the Eagles easily (42-12) first up at home last year. Equally I’m expecting the Broncos to be slipping back into the groove. Tipping the Broncos might outlast their opponent with discipline and control late in the event, they also have an excellent long term record at turning these away games into tight / Under affairs. Should Foran not play that should weaken further the Eels attack / points.

Bet 1 unit Eels-Broncos Under 40.5 $1.90 Centrebet


Eagles vs Bulldogs

-6.5 Eagles

I have the Eagles rated on potential so some caution till we see how this unfolds. They have made massive changes across their list, most of them quality and added a new coach in Barrett, and after weeks of work on paper I’m happy enough with where I have them pegged to start the season, but playing combinations (and results) are something different. My mail form some close to the players and training park at Manly have been nothing but lavish in their praise of Barrett’s work to date, he’s calm, sharp, well organised and knows what he’s doing, one very experienced International who has played under some very very good coaches has stated privately to date Barrett is the best he’s played under, some rap. A ball hasn’t been kicked in anger yet, but it’s a happy camp that form all accounts from opinions I respect is very happy and well prepared to start the season.

But lots of questions. Have the size and depth in the middle, combinations and penetration with their backrowers, how does Walker aim up at 6? Stewart is in some doubt, but I have not heard anything firm yet. My expectation is that they are going to want to play up tempo with their game speed, be prepared to move the ball, and play to their speed and skill (7, 6 and 1) and edges.

I have numerous questions on the Bulldogs to, and much that I want to see. B Morris and Klemmer key outs. I though the Mybe and Reynolds combination was the weakest (and poor) of those that they played with through the closing months of last year, and Hodkinson a significant out given his quality long kicking game, abilities to direct play and kick goals. But Hasler can coach, and his record speaks for itself, form all accounts he has trimmed down a number of his big forwards and his squad is as fit as he has had them.

A game full of question marks, we will learn a lot here. Brookvale is a huge advantage for the Eagles. I’m with them but found both sides and the game hard to mark at this stage with any confidence.


Raiders vs Panthers

-7.5 Raiders

Raiders have purchased well through the off season have look to have the potential to now challenge for a top 8 spot, there two major purchases will be on show here in Sezer and Whitehead. Panthers have a major out in Moylan. Interesting home and away records for the last year for both sides, Raiders winning just 3/12 at home while Panthers only won just the 2 away games.

It’s the first game of the season and so we’ll expect some rusty play but I’m expecting the Raiders to be a) picking up where they were developing to last season with strong ball movement and attacking skill, and b) be further improved with the addition of Sezer and Whitehead and experience into their kids. Stuart can be good at getting his players up for a game, but balance is the key as he can also be prone to heaping lots of pressure and expectation. But the mix looks right in many key combinations, time will tell.

I want to see the Panthers, and what unfolds here and into these next few weeks. I’m not necessarily Griffin’s biggest fan, Moylan is huge out, questions over what they do and or will work in the halves, and how some of their kids come up. Griffin’s attack plans and patterns have also been a significant issue for me in the past, and while only a nothing trial they did look bloody pedestrian against the Eels a few weeks back.

It’s first game, but the Raiders don’t have to change much, add some polish with Sezer, same coach and approach, pick up where they were and kick on. Panthers new coach, some new combinations and missing their key superstar. Going with the Raiders to start the season well.

Bet 1 unit Raiders -3.5 $1.92 Crownbet


Tigers vs Warriors

+9.5 Tigers

Gee I wish Farah and Brooks were playing here first up as I think the Tigers at full strength and at home would have beaten the Warriors, but unfortunately they are key outs. I have little confident that McFadden knows what he is doing given the results of the last 6 months, let alone the team list he has put up here, plus as well noted in the media through recent days their first round efforts each season are terrible as is their away record in Sydney. The Tigers also look somewhat unknown with a number of new faces and combinations, plus the obvious issue of experience and capability at #9.

It’s a watch game. The Warriors could put moments of brilliance on and win by 30. They could also fold quickly and lose by 6, I wouldn’t trust them to help me cross the road.


Cowboys vs Sharks

-6.5 Cowboys

The Cowboys did it all last yr, I love watching them play and the positive attacking approach they play, so I have no knock on them but I do have significant question marks on this game and maybe the real huger year long (but that will unfold in due course). It took 10 yrs to get the monkey off their back and they duly celebrated for 3 months all over Nth Qld, they then come into this game first up at home with a full house, lots of local media hype and backslappers into a willing opponent. They also have a questionable record as slow starters most seasons, and first game at home last yr were soundly touched up by the Knights who went on to win the wooden spoon.. They have to be some risk here.

The Sharks have bought well, Maloney a huge buy, classy link at #6, quality kicking game, and kicks goals. They have no outs, and my mail is have had an excellent 10 day prep setting this game first up as a major focus including an out of town team camp 7 days ago. They were touched up by the Cows in the finals but did win both games earlier in the season and do have a good overall record in Townsville and H2H.

I marked this game much shorter than the markets earlier this week, and now the rain has come with up to 30 mms of rain forecast for Saturday on top of rain last night.

It’s round 1 and I am happy to stick with the Sharks at the + line as a formal bet, but personally I will also be having an interest through the Sharks H2H at the $3.25 that’s around at present.

Bet 1 unit Sharks +8.0 $1.95 Tabcorp


Roosters vs Rabbits

Even

Sadly a game knocked around with key outs, Waerea-Hargreaves, Cordner and Pearce missing for the Roosters while Keary, Grevsmuhl and Tom and George Burgess are all key outs for the Rabbits. Sam Burgess in clearly a key return for the red and green but on the back of this both sides are adjusting to key off season changes, so a game that looks tricky to read.

The Roosters look to have some advantage in the middle but have in experience but promise across their inside 4 backs, while the Rabbits look a bit patched up with noted bench players now filling key forward roles.

Another tricky game that could go in any direction. The Roosters have a healthy long term record in this early season clash but with so many key personal changes to both sides and it being a round 1 match up its impossible to get any sort of read to forecast. Lets just watch and see what we might learn.


Titans vs Knights

-2.5 Titans

Well if we already had a few games that looked tricky to read then this is like a 5,000 piece jigsaw puzzle that has just been tipped on the floor… Both sides have key outs, and then have rookies scattered everywhere across their list, plus new combinations in lots of key places.

For all of their poor form and travel record through recent seasons the Knights actually have a good record both against the Titans winning 4 of the last 5 H2H and at the ground winning 4 of the last 5 here. I’m a rap on Brown as a coach and while it’s going to probably take a couple of seasons for him to re build his list he is very astute with his game plans and has his teams very well prepared, so I will be watching with interest their approach. Henry is equally a good coach working with depleted quality but as we saw last yr he also made a habit of having his weak team aim up.

I went with the Titans at home with little confidence, I just want to sit down and watch with interest what’s on offer.


Storm vs Dragons

-8.5 Storm

A good game and match up to finish the round with. The Storm have an outstanding record early in the season, Bellamy is a master of a tough off season and in preparing his team through the final 4 weeks into their first few games with highly drilled sessions such that they could walk through their patterns of play in their sleep. They have the huge added benefit here of now having been able to provide Smith, Cronk and Stater with full off seasons preps without any rep commitments and this should have a massive impact on their early season form. Add to this their undeniable record at home and the fact that they have beaten the Dragons at their last 13 contests in Melbourne then they do look very hard to beat here.

The Dragons have some key changes, notably Packer up front and Mann and Lafai in their backs, but will be missing one of their best forwards in Frizell. Coach McGreggor showed this time last yr that with the benefit of a full off season he was able to coach a touch well structured plan in defence which went on to shut down many opponents through the opening rounds and win them games, and so I’m sure we are likely to see something similar again this season.

This game looks a lot like Thursday’s opening game, two willing teams well prepared likely to slug this out right through the 80 minutes, with the likely difference being the Storm’s home advantage and noted game control and discipline. To beat the Storm you need to get them out of their rhythm, play some up tempo footy and turn any advantage into points such that then have to chase and play outside their norm, but all of that is easier said than done as they have such quality game management led by Smith and Cronk.

Good contest, I think the markets have the handicap about right, happy to watch how it unfolds.


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 1

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips and Game Previews

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Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Game Previews and Betting Plays

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr.G (aka Gerard Condon) is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional NRL players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering. Mr.G now provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews and recommended NRL sports betting tips.

 


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Mr G provides our NRL tips and game previews. Professional analysis from an experienced pro. Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr.G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional NRL players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering. Mr.G now provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews and recommended NRL sports betting tips. Mr.G’s NRL tips betting plays and previews combine his knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the NRL betting markets.

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AFL Tips Preview Sports Betting 2015 Grand Final

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AFL Tips Preview Sports Betting 2015 Grand Final

AFL Statsman provides our weekly game by game previews and recommended betting plays across the AFL season – further details on his profile, approach and record can be found here

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2015 results – 35/52, Strike Rate 67%, Profit +39.93 units

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AFL Grand Final Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit West Coast-Hawthorn over 183.5  $1.90 Topsport

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Individual Game Tips

Hawthorn

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Game Previews

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Hawthorn v West Coast

A mouth-watering rematch of the week 1 qualifying final won by the Eagles in convincing fashion by a margin of 32 points.  I have consistently said Hawthorn’s best football is panels ahead of the rest of the competition and they clearly didn’t produce it in the Qualifying Final. While they are advantaged by being back at their home ground (a fortunate advantage not granted to many other clubs) their road to the Grand Final has been a long and hard one. Indeed, the last 16 grand finalists from 2007-2014 all enjoyed the week off en-route to the big dance. Since the introduction of the McIntyre system in 2000, only three teams have won the Grand Final the hard way after being beaten in the qualifying final and we have to go back a decade to find them. Interestingly, each of these three teams (West Coast – 2006, Sydney – 2005 and Brisbane – 2003) rebounded to avenge their qualifying final loss to their opponent in the Grand Final. In view of their hard road to the Grand Final, I simply cannot have Hawthorn as a betting proposition particularly as the Eagles have been hugely advantaged by staying in Perth for the past five weeks. They will be fresher than the Hawks and carrying less niggles but with limited Grand Final experience, they cannot be backed with any degree of confidence either. I have a slight lean towards Hawthorn’s class and experience prevailing but there is too much risk to wager with confidence on the outcome. 

Some of the classic Grand Finals in the past decade have been low scoring arm wrestles and these tend to stick in the memory. However, the reality is that 8 of the last 15 Grand Finals have yielded over the 183.5 line available for this match. Warm conditions are forecast, potentially as high as 28 degrees and this is conducive to higher scoring. While the two recent clashes at Domain Stadium were low scoring, a lot of this can be attributed to the Weagles Web strangling scoring avenues at the narrow Domain Stadium. At the wider MCG, I anticipate both sides finding more avenues to the goal and accordingly, we may see a high scoring clash like the 202, 226 and 246 points yielded in the clashes prior to the most recent two contests. Further the Eagles have gone over the total match score line in 32 of their last 43 day games – a key pointer to the over.

Tip: Hawthorn 

Bet 1 unit Hawthorn-West Coast 183.5  $1.90 Topsport

 

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AFL Tips Preview Sports Betting 2015 Finals Week 3

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AFL Tips Preview Sports Betting 2015 Finals Week 3

AFL Statsman’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays are listed below. Each AFL Preview and Sports Betting Tips thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by mid morning of the first game of the round (Fridays).

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AFL Finals Week 3

2015 results – 34/51, Strike Rate 67%, Profit +38.17 units

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Finals Week 3 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units West Coast-North Melbourne Under 179.5  $1.90 Luxbet

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Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Individual Game Tips

Hawthorn, West Coast

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Game Previews

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West Coast v North Melbourne

The Eagles were simply stunning during their 32 demolition of Hawthorn last start and will line up as deserved favourites for this preliminary final. I expect Nic Nat and Goldstein to cancel each other out with the Eagles proving too good across the ground. With a two week break and Brownlow winner Priddis to return, the Eagles have one foot on the plane to Melbourne. While the Kangaroos have won their last two starts against West Coast and have a very good 19-9 record at covering the line off a 7 day break, the 30.5 line for this match is just about right and we won’t be playing that.

The total match score line has been set towards the high side in recognition of the Eagles’ potent attack but it’s worth noting that the Eagles’ equally potent defence has ensured their last two matches have yielded just 160 and 155 points. Further, North have gone under the total match score line in 17 of their last 25 interstate trips and four of their last five matches this season have yielded under 179.5 points. The head to head record tells a similar tale with the last two clashes between these sides yielding just 160 and 126 points.

Bet 2 units West Coast-North Melbourne Under 179.5 $1.90 Luxbet

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The Stats that Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

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Fremantle v Hawthorn – A mouth-watering clash with so many questions to be answered. Can Hawthorn maintain their good recent record versus Freo and keep their three-peat dream alive? Can Freo finally kick a winning score in a big game? Hawthorn will start as favourites after their electrifying win last start but the key stats are in favour of both sides. Hawthorn are 17-8 against the line as an interstate favourite across 2013-15 while the Dockers have covered the line in 25 of their last 52 matches when enjoying at least a seven day break between games. I have a very slight lean towards Hawthorn given the question marks over the Dockers attack and their big game temperament but otherwise this game is too close to call and should be enjoyed be one and all. I note the Dockers have gone under the total match score line in 20 of their last 26 night games and the market has moved two points towards the under since Monday but I have too much respect for the Hawk’s offence to take them on.

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