NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Player Ins Outs

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Player Ins Outs

 

The latest key confirmed player Ins and Outs for each NRL club for the Telstra Premiership ahead of the 2017 NRL season.

BRISBANE BRONCOS

Ins: Moses Pangai (Townsville Blackhawks), David Mead (Titans), Tautau Moga (Cowboys), Benji Marshall (Dragons), Mitchell Dodds (Warrington)

Outs: Greg Eden (Castleford), Brett Greinke (Rabbitohs), Corey Parker (retirement), Jarrod Wallace (Titans), Jack Reed (retirement), Carlin Anderson (Cowboys), Darren Nicholls (Panthers), Lachlan Maranta (rugby union)

CANBERRA RAIDERS

Ins: Jordan Turner (St Helens), Dunamis Lui (Dragons), Makahesi Makatoa (Bulldogs), Scott Sorensen (Mounties), Brent Naden (Mounties)

Outs: Lachlan Lewis (Bulldogs), Sisa Waqa (rugby union), Zac Woolford (Bulldogs), Sam Williams (Wakefield), Brenko Lee (Bulldogs), Paul Vaughan (Dragons)

CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN BULLDOGS

Ins: Zac Woolford (Raiders), Josh Cleeland (Sharks), Rhyse Martin (Townsville Blackhawks), Brenko Lee (Raiders), Tom Carr (Dragons), Francis Tualau (Storm), Richard Kennar (Storm)

Outs: Pat O’Hanlon (retirement), Sam Perrett (retirement), Curtis Rona (rugby union, Western Force), Tim Browne (Panthers), Tony Williams (Sharks), Richard Coorey (released), Makahesi Makatoa (Raiders), Jarrod McInally (Queensland Intrust Super Cup), Graham Clark (released), Jake Kamire (released), Reubenn Rennie (released), Lamar Liolevave (released), Lloyd Perrett (Sea Eagles)

CRONULLA SHARKS

Ins: Manaia Cherrington (Wests Tigers), Tony Williams (Bulldogs), Jeremy Latimore (Panthers), Daniel Mortimer (Titans)

Outs: David Fifita (released), Mitch Brown (Leigh), Josh Cleeland (Bulldogs), Michael Ennis (retirement), Connor Tracey (Rabbitohs), Jesse Sene-Lefao (Castleford Tigers), Ben Barba (released), Jacob Gagan (Knights), Matt McIlwrick (Wests Tigers), Junior Roqica (London)

GOLD COAST TITANS

Ins: Dan Sarginson (Wigan), Jarrod Wallace (Broncos), Kevin Proctor (Storm), Paterika Vaivai (free agent), Tyler Cornish (Roosters)

Outs: Nathan Friend (retirement), David Hala (released), Nene Macdonald (Dragons), David Mead (Broncos), Cameron Cullen (Sea Eagles), Luke Douglas (St Helens), Josh Hoffman (Eels), Greg Bird (Catalans), Jed Cartwright (Panthers), Daniel Mortimer (Sharks), Brian Kelly (Sea Eagles), Matt Srama (retirement)

MANLY SEA EAGLES

Ins: Frank Winterstein (rugby union), Shaun Lane (Warriors), Blake Green (Storm), Cameron Cullen (Titans), Akuila Uate (Knights), Curtis Sironen (Wests Tigers), Lloyd Perrett (Bulldogs), Jackson Hastings (Roosters), Brian Kelly (Titans), Jonathan Wright (Warriors)

Outs: Jamie Lyon (retirement), Tim Moltzen (retirement), Tom Symonds (Huddersfield), Siosia Vave (Eels), Liam Knight (Roosters), Nathan Green (released), Blake Leary (Blackhawks), Issac John (Mounties), Jayden Hodges (released), Rhys Armstrong (released), Fabian Goodall (rugby union), Halaufa Lavaka (released), Tony Satini (Panthers), Dylan Kelly (released), Hugh Pratt (released), Nicho Hynes (released), Darcy Cox (released), Josh Starling (Knights), Jamie Buhrer (Knights), Brayden Williame (Catalans), Matt Parcell (Leeds Rhinos), Feleti Mateo (Salford), Luke Burgess (Catalans)

MELBOURNE STORM

Ins: Josh Addo-Carr (Wests Tigers), Brandon Smith (Cowboys), Vincent Leuluai (Roosters), Jahrome Hughes (Cowboys), Ryley Jacks (Sunshine Coast Falcons)

Outs: Marika Koroibete (rugby union), Josh Kerr (Dragons), Ryan Morgan (St Helens), Blake Green (Sea Eagles), Matt White, Francis Tualau (Bulldogs), Ben Hampton (Cowboys), Richard Kennar (Bulldogs), Kevin Proctor (Titans)

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS

Ins: Jamie Buhrer (Sea Eagles), Rory Kostjasyn (Cowboys), Ken Sio (Hull KR), Josh Starling (Sea Eagles), Jacob Gagan (Sharks), Joe Wardle (Huddersfield Giants)

Outs: Jeremy Smith (retirement), James McManus (retirement), Kade Snowden (retirement), Robbie Rochow (Rabbitohs), Akuila Uate (Sea Eagles), Jake Mamo (Huddersfield Giants)

NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS

Ins: Carlin Anderson (Broncos), Ben Hampton (Storm)

Outs: Brandon Smith (Storm), James Tamou (Panthers), Jahrome Hughes (Storm), Rory Kostjasyn (Knights), Tautau Moga (Broncos), Ben Hannant (retirement)

PARRAMATTA EELS

Ins: Jamal Fogerty (Burleigh Bears), Siosia Vave (Sea Eagles), Nathan Brown (Rabbitohs), George Jennings (Panthers), Josh Hoffman (Titans), Suaia Matagi (Panthers), Frank Pritchard (Hull FC), Kirisome Auva’a (unattached), Will Smith (Panthers)

Outs: Tyrell Fuimaono (Rabbitohs), Michael Gordon (Roosters), Kieren Moss (Bradford), Anthony Watmough (retirement), Kieran Foran (Warriors), Luke Kelly (Rabbitohs), Danny Wicks (retirement), Vai Toutai (released), Mitch Cornish (Roosters)

PENRITH PANTHERS

Ins: James Tamou (Cowboys), Tim Browne (Bulldogs), Michael Oldfield (Rabbitohs), Darren Nicholls (Redcliffe Dolphins), Mitch Rein (Dragons), Jed Cartwright (Titans)

Outs: Ben Garcia (Catalans), Chris Smith (Sydney Roosters), George Jennings (Eels), Zak Hardaker (Castelford), Jeremy Latimore (Sharks), Suaia Matagi (Eels), Andrew Heffernan (Hull KR), Chris Grevsmuhl (released), Robert Jennings (Rabbitohs), Will Smith (Eels)

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

Ins: Tyrell Fuimaono (Eels), Robbie Rochow (Knights), Connor Tracey (Sharks), Robbie Farah (Wests Tigers), Luke Kelly (Eels), Anthony Cherrington (Redcliffe Dolphins), Robert Jennings (Panthers), Brett Greinke (Broncos)

Outs: Joe Burgess (Wigan), Luke Keary (Roosters), Paul Carter (Roosters), Kirisome Auva’a (released), Cameron McInnes (Dragons), Nathan Brown (Eels), Michael Oldfield (Panthers)

ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS

Ins: Josh Kerr (Storm), Nene Macdonald (Titans), Cameron McInnes (Rabbitohs), Shaun Nona (Illawarra Cutters), Paul Vaughan (Raiders)

Outs: Mike Cooper (Warrington), Sebastine Ikahihifo (Huddersfield), Ben Creagh (retirement), Benji Marshall (Broncos), Dylan Farrell (retirement), Tom Carr (Bulldogs), Mitch Rein (Panthers), Dunamis Lui (Raiders), Adam Quinlan (Hull KR)

SYDNEY ROOSTERS

Ins: Michael Gordon (Eels), Luke Keary (Rabbitohs), Liam Knight (Sea Eagles), Zane Tetevano (Wyong Roos), Paul Carter (Rabbitohs), Mitch Cornish (Eels), Brendan Santi (Blackhawks)

Outs: Vincent Leuluai (Storm), Sam Moa (Catalans), Tyler Cornish (Titans), Jackson Hastings (Sea Eagles)

WARRIORS

Ins: Kieran Foran (Eels)

Outs: Raymond Faitala-Mariner (Bulldogs), Thomas Leuluai (Wigan), Shaun Lane (Sea Eagles), Jonathan Wright (Sea Eagles), Henare Wells (Burleigh)

WESTS TIGERS

Ins: Jamal Idris (free agent), Matt McIlwrick (Sharks)

Outs: Josh Addo-Carr (Storm), Jack Buchanan (Widnes), Josh Drinkwater (released), Asipeli Fine (Bulldogs), Lamar Liolevave (Bulldogs), Billy McConnachie (released), Jesse Parahi (Rugby Sevens), Manaia Cherrington (Sharks), Dene Halatau (retirement), Robbie Farah (Rabbitohs), Curtis Sironen (Sea Eagles), Chance Peni (rugby union)

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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For all the latest NRL news, schedules and schedules here www.nrl.com

Latest NRL News – here

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At Reading The Play we don’t just provide a bet list, we also offer individual game by game previews, key information, analysis and our experts “read” on what is likely to unfold – an informed opinion. Our subscribers enjoy pre game preview thoughts and rational that not only provides them with a potential betting play but a broader “feel” and connection to each game.

If you like your NRL and sports betting then you are at the right place.

NRL Tips Game Previews and Recommended NRL Sports Betting at Reading The Play

 

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Grand Final

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Grand Final

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


AFL Grand Final 2016


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Grand Final Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 1 unit Sydney -9.5 $1.95 Bet365

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Game Preview

Swans vs Bulldogs

 

Sydney’s first quarter demolition of Geelong last week was a blitzkrieg that is rarely seen at the highest level and it was a level of performance that can only be achieved by the very best teams – and they did it off a six day break! The Western Bulldogs fairytale continues to gather momentum, but the reality is that their very best football is short of what the Swans have to offer.

I expect Hannebery, Parker, Kennedy and Jack to win the majority of contested ball and give the Swans the edge in this department. I also see Buddy and Tippett as having a clear edge over their Bulldogs rivals. More importantly, I note that the Swans have 18 players with Grand Final experience  compared to just one for the Bulldogs. I want to be on the experienced Swans who  are determined to avenge the their embarassing 2014 capitulation to Hawthorn. They also play in their preferred day timeslot and have covered  the line in 30 of their last 46 day matches.

Yes, the Bulldogs have won the two most recent clashes by four points on both occasions and they have an excellent cover record as underdogs, but I happy to bet against Grand Final rookies and expect the Swans to have learnt from those games and to turn the tables convincingly.

The line is set at 9.5 to 11.5 points and I note that since Sydney and West Coast played back to back thrillers in 2005-2006, only the Collingwood-St Kilda drawn Grand Final failed to deliver a double figure margin to the victors. Close grand finals are the exception to the rule in the modern era.

The line has been set very low for the two best defensive teams in the league, but if the rain stays away, I lean towards the over, especially with the Bulldog being very aggressive in attack in recent weeks.

Tip – Swans

Bet 1 unit Sydney -9.5 $1.95 Bet365


Winning Horse Racing Tips

 

 


 

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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Grand Final

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

 

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Grand Final

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Grand Final

 

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


NRL Grand Final 2016

 

MrG’s Ratings

-2.5 Storm

 

The Storm have spent all 26 rounds in the top 8, I started them in Rd 1 rated equal third on my personal team ratings (behind the Broncos, Cowboys and equal with Rabbits), they started the finals series equal top rated with the Cowboys and I have improved that rating further through their two finals wins (new peek season rating). The Sharks started the season rated in the bottom half of the top 8, achieved a season peek rating while on their long winning run but I have them positioned back short of that peek off a poor final season run and questionable depth through tehir finals run.


NRL Grand Final Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 3 units Storm to win premiership $2.40 Sportsbet BB (subscribers bet advice 24/09)

Bet 2 units Storm-Sharks under 34.5 $1.91 Sportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Game Preview

 

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Finals Notes:

8 of last 9 Premiers were one of the Top 2 defensive sides that season. This yr that’s Storm & Cowboys

12 of the last 16 Premiers have won the comp off the back of a week off and then winning their Prelim final win

6 of the last 7 grand finalists who had played 4 wks straight, have lost. Cowboys broke this factor for the first time last year

 

Storm vs Sharks

-2.5 Storm

Stats

 

History – Played 31, Storm 21, Sharks 10

At ANZ Stadium – First Meeting

Finals History – Played 1, Storm 1, Sharks 0 Storm’s Record at ANZ Stadium – Played 17, Won 12, Lost 5 Storm’s Finals Record at ANZ Stadium – Played 8, Won 5, Lost 3 Sharks Record at ANZ Stadium – Played 22, Won 7, Lost 15 Sharks Finals Record at ANZ Stadium – Played 2, Won 0, Lost 2

The Numbers for the Storm

 

The Minor Premiers recorded 21 wins and 5 losses to this point to make the Grand Final, with a longest winning streak of 7 from Rounds 7-17. They have been the bench mark in 2016, spending 18 weeks in the Top 2 and were never positioned out of the Top 8. At the conclusion of the regular season their defensive efforts had them ranking at the top of the charts, conceding 302 points at an amazing average of 12.5, while their 261 point differential was also the best in the NRL. Their 563 points in attack ranked 4th at an average of almost 24 PPG. Only on 4 occasions this season have Melbourne conceded more than 18 points. Melbourne scored 96 tries after 26 Rounds to be ranked 4th, while their 51 tries conceded was the best in the competition, with only 6 of those conceded through their middle 3rd, which was also the best record in the league, for the 2nd year in a row. They finished the regular season with a 13-11 record ATS which ranked 5th, with a 7-5 cover record away from home, while they have covered in 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Sharks. In total match points they were the Number 1 Unders side, producing a 19-7 record, with 8 of their last 10 finishing that way, while 9 of their 12 games away from home also went Under. In 4 of their last 6 matches at ANZ Stadium the total match points have finished Under as well. Melbourne has won 18 of 19 in 2016 with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 3 of 7 and in their last 10 matches, only once have they been outscored in the 2nd half. The Storm has scored the 1st try of the match in 15 of their 26 matches and have gone on to win on 14 of those 15 occasions (93%), while a penalty goal has been the 1st scoring play in their last 3 matches, including their last meeting with Cronulla. Melbourne has played 6 games on a Sunday this season and have recorded wins in all 6 of them. This will be Melbourne’s 6th Grand Final appearance since entering the competition in 1998, they won in 1999, 2007 and 2009, but were stripped of the latter 2 for salary cap breaches before claiming another victory in 2012.

The Numbers for the Sharks

 

The Sharks will be looking to end a 50 year drought when they contest just their 4 th Grand Final since entering the competition in 1967 and if successful, will end the longest Premiership drought in history of any side still playing in the competition. They recorded 19 wins, 6 losses and a draw to get to the big dance, their 1st since making the 1997 Super League Grand Final and their 1st in a unified comp since 1978. They set a new club record of 15 consecutive wins from Rounds 4 to 20 before recording just 1 win from their last 6 on the run home. They ranked 3rd in both attack (580 points for at an average of 24.2PPG) and defence (404 points against at an average of 16.8PPG) at the conclusion of the regular season, while their differential rated 4th . In 4 of the Sharks last 7 matches they have conceded 20 points or more. The Sharks scored 99 tries after 26 Rounds to be ranked 2 nd behind the Raiders, while their 67 tries conceded saw them rank 3rd . Their record ATS is 15-11 season to date and they are 9-5 when covering away from Shark Park, while they have covered in 11 of their last 14 when getting a start. Cronulla has a 14-12 total match points record in favour of the Under, with 4 of their last 6 played away from Shark Park totaling 36 or less. The Sharks have won 13 of 16 matches when going to the half time break in front, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 5 of 9. They have given up the 1st try of the match in 5 of their last 7, but have opened the scoring with a penalty goal in 3 of those, while a penalty goal has been the 1st scoring play in 3 of their last 5 Finals matches. Cronulla has the 2nd highest average in the comp for the time of the 1st try and in 14 of their 26 matches the 1st try has been scored after the 7th minute and this has also been the result in 10 of the last 13 Grand Finals. Like Melbourne, the Sharks are undefeated in Sunday matches this season, winning 8 from 8.

Head to Head

 

Melbourne has a dominate record over Cronulla, having won 11 of the previous 13 encounters. They also have a very good record at ANZ Stadium, winning 5 of their last 9, including victories in the 2009 and 2012 Grand Finals. A Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in 11 of the last 13 meetings with the Sharks, while they have scored the 1st try in all 13 of those matches. The home side has won 8 of the last 9 clashes but that will count for little as they meet on neutral ground for only the 2nd time. Both sides had the week off before their Preliminary Final wins which will guarantee that the percentage improves with sides going on to win the Grand Final after the weeks break which currently sits at 75% since 2000. In 5 of the last 6 meetings, the winning margin has been by 13+, with the Storm winning all of those, while the margin result in Grand Finals has been split evenly since 2003, along with last years draw after 80 minutes. Only once in the previous 13 encounters have the Sharks led the Storm at half time, while the half time leader has won 10 of the previous 13 Grand Finals. The Sharks haven’t scored more than 12 2nd half points in their last 17 matches against Melbourne at an average of less than 6, while on average, Melbourne has scored more than two and a half times more points than Cronulla from the past 12 match ups. In 11 of the last 14 meetings the total match points have resulted in Unders, with 8 of the last 11 failing to top 38. Matt Cecchin has refereed 6 Melbourne matches in 2016, with the Storm winning 3 of them and covering a line only twice, while 5 of them have finished Under, with all of those totalling 30 or less. The Sharks have a perfect record under Cecchin this year, winning 4 from 4 and covering in all of them, while they are 3-1 Under. Cronulla coach Shane Flanagan is a former assistant coach of Craig Bellamy’s. Jesse Bromwich has scored in 3 of his last 5 matches against the Sharks.

Mr.G’s Preview

 

Storm have set the benchmark this season winning 15 of their last 18 games and elevating their performance rating month after month on their way to this the ultimate game (and have been top 2 for 20 of the last 28 weeks. As much as many look to pot them for one reason or another this week the facts don’t lie; they finished the minor premiers with an outstanding defensive record having conceded just 12 points a game in today’s modern game across 28 games, a remarkable offering. While you consider those deeds also then consider that 8 of the last 9 premiership titles (and a similar % over time the last 30 years) have been won by one of the top two defensive sides of that season.

The Storms last 3 games have all been pressure contests, Rd 26 to decide the minor premiership (vs Sharks), then a home semi vs defending title holders (Cowboys) then last weeks GF qualifier vs the comps #2 side (Raiders). In those 3 games, 3 big end of season pressure cookers they again have been to the fore defensively conceding just 6, 10 and 12 pts. Yes they have had some significant advantage playing these last 3 games at home, zero travel, but for mine that only then becomes a further advantage into this weeks game. For mine they also come through (hardened further) the tougher side of the draw through quality title contenders in through these last 3 games, Sharks, Cowboys then Raiders.

The Storm also hold a significant head to head advantage, winning 11 of the last 13 contests vs the Sharks.

Certainly they have weakness: they’ve had defensive issues on their left edge (in particular Blair); they like to play a compressed defensive line and can get caught with quick creative ball shifts to the outside (but one has to execute well and prone to error); and they don’t like offload or second phase ball play through and or in behind middle or ruck. But a history of winning 15 of your last 18 and consistently only conceding 12 pts suggests they learn well from their weaknesses and don’t make these mistakes all that often.

The Sharks have also had a super season, and are certainly a real live chance here. They finished top 4, rolled into seasons end on the back of a long quality winning streak and have a significant shot at history here. The joy of getting here (and subconscious acceptance that we have done real well) worries me, as does that big Silverback Ape sitting on their back (no longer a monkey) of nervous expectation in possibly winning their first premiership. Ennis, Lewis and Maloney have been stand outs in their last two finals games, with Gallen they bring plenty of experience and hunger, they are not greenhorns but this is a high pressure week when we are playing for keeps.

A further concern for mine is what depth is really around their recent form. At Rd 20 they sat ranked 3rd in both attack and defence yet across the next 8 weeks slid quickly to mid table. Sure they had numerous half chances in Rd 26 vs the Storm but in another major pressure game (minor premiership) they conceded 26 and were rolled by 20. Their 2nd half effort vs Raiders was nothing but courageous but the Raiders blew that game decisively then they rolled through the Cowboys with what looked ease last week, a side that then looked well out of petrol and limping with injury. And lets add some perspective on that game, the Sharks had 67% of the ball by the 50 minute mark yet only led 14-6 (should well have been 30-6) and lost the 2nd half 18-20.

Technically the Sharks also have their issues. They consistently lack discipline from key players like Ennis, Fifita and Gallen – fine against the also rans but major momentum swingers in these big games. They also prone to cheap handling errors (completion rates) and have their own defensive issues in Townsend and Bird who I expect will see significant traffic and spotting.

The Sharks have to play footy to upset here. They have to ball play, they have to unload, they have to shift and get the tempo of this game quick and rolling – the Storm are near impossible to beat at their own game, to beat them you have to move them around quickly, consistently and shake them up (aka Broncos game plan / win Rd 25). If its to be achieved ball play and ball spread is the name of the game.

I can’t go past the Storm, for mine they hold all the aces. Best defensive team, through quality tough form line and the tougher side of the draw and they hold a decisive edge head to head over their opponent. High discipline, low errors, masters at strangling opponents out of the contest.

Into last weekend and the likely results I expected (and rated) the Storm approx. $1.50 favs, the $1.85 looks very generous.

Also keen on a low scoring game and like the under 34.5 In 11 of the last 14 head to head contests between these two the points have finished under while the Storm longer term are 14-5 under in finals since 2008. Tough tight night GF with defence the likely winner, keen to be with the under 34.5

Suggested Game Plays

Storm $1.85

Under 34.5 $1.90

Clive Churchill Medal (Man of the Match) Cooper Cronk $5.50 or Jesse Bromwich $15.00


Winning Horse Racing Tips

 


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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Grand Final

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A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL, Horse Racing, NFL, College Football and Football

 

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 3

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 3

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


AFL Finals Week 3

 

Bet 2 units Geelong H2H $1.66 William Hill BB

Bet 1 unit GWS-Western Bulldogs over 167.5 $1.90 Unibet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Geelong, GWS


Game Previews

 

Geelong v Sydney

 

Since the McIntyre System was introduced in 2000, Qualifying Finals winners who earned a week off have proceeded to win 28 of the 32 Preliminary Finals they have contested. This is a powerful form factor in anyone’s  language. Granted, the pre finals bye has added uncertainty to the mix with Geelong playing just their second match in four weeks. However, in an era of sports scientists tapering the players’ physical preparation to the minute, I don’t expect the Cats to be underdone. The main challenge will be between the ears and there is enough experience in the Cat’s roster to prepare accordingly.  I am comfortable discounting the Cats regular season loss to the Swans as a form reference as they made half a dozen changes for that match including bringing in Mitch Clark for his only game of the season.

The Swans were outstanding last week but off a six day back up and with injury concerns to key players they have to be risked. Also, the Swans have only covered the line in 3 of their last 11 matches at the MCG. The market agrees and has moved 1-2 points towards the Cats since Monday. I have a lot of respect for what the Swans will bring and am suggesting  a conservative play of Geelong to win head to head.

Bet 2 units Geelong H2H $1.66 William Hill BB


GWS v Western Bulldogs

 

Great clash between two up and coming sides. As already mentioned, the Bulldogs will be up against the weight of history with Qualifying Final winners prevailing in 28 of the last 32 Preliminary Finals. Further, the Giants have covered the line in 25 of 36 matches as a favourite. The Dogs however have covered the line in 14 of their last 18 as a 0.5-15 point underdog. Lean towards GWS to cover but think the bookies have the line right.

The bookies have set the line low based on their data for the season. However, I have noted that the Dogs have really been chancing their arm in attack in the playoffs and it has been paying off as they have recorded 107 and 99 points in attack. Further, the last five clashes between these two outfits have yielded 171, 181, 224, 193 and 170 points, all over the line set for this match. The lines have barely moved since Monday but a couple of bookies have tightened the odds in favour of the over.

Bet 1 unit GWS-Western Bulldogs over 167.5 $1.90 Unibet


 

Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 3

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 2

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 2

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Finals Week 2

 

Bet 1 unit Sydney-Adelaide over 175.5 $1.90 William Hill

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Hawthorn, Sydney


Game Previews

 

Sydney v Adelaide

Between 2000-2014, Qualifying Final losers won 26 of 28 Semi Finals against Elimination Final losers. However, the tables have been turned over the past two season with Elimination Final winners prevailing in three of the past four Semi Finals. Both teams have won 17 out of 23 games this season, so it can be argued that the gap between 1st and 5th is non-existent this year. The Swans won four of their last five against the Crows but have lost their last four finals matches so I can’t have them with confidence. The market also has doubts about the Swans, moving 2-4 points towards the Crows since Tuesday morning. I’m sitting on the fence here.

However, I’m keen to back the Swans attack to click back into gear at the SCG after an off day when kicking 7:13 against GWS. Adelaide’s attacking prowess needs no introduction – they have gone over in 14 of 23 games this season and have gone over in 12 of their last 17 as an interstate dog. Further the last three matches between these two teams yielded 216, 182 and 205 points. While I expect the game to be played at typical finals intensity with periods of arm wrestling, I am also expecting the game to open up at times to keep the scoreboard ticking over. The market agrees and has moved 1-2 points towards the over since Tuesday morning.

Bet 1 unit Sydney-Adelaide over 175.5 $1.90 William Hill


 

Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

Hawthorn have won 17 games this season, just one more than the Bulldogs who have won 16, so the ‘gap’ between Qualifying Final losers and Elimination Finals winners isn’t as big as it has been in many of the one sided Semi Final contests between 2000-2014.

Hawthorn have covered the line in 11 of their last 13 matches when playing at the MCG immediately after a loss, however, have lost three of their last five matches and need to be taken on trust. The Doggies have covered the line in 13 of their last 17 matches when starting a 0.5-15pt underdog and beat the Hawks in many statistical categories when going down 93-90 at Etihad earlier this season. Too close to call! Slight lean to Hawks.

The Doggies have gone under in 16 of 23 games this season, hence the very low line. However, the last two clashes between these two sides yielded 183 and 184 points and the Doggies defence is not as tight away from Etihad. I lean towards the over.


 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 2

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 1

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 1

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Finals Week 1

 

Bet 2 units Sydney -15.5 $1.92 Crownbet BB

Bet 1 unit Western Bulldogs +26.5 $1.91 UniBet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

West Coast, Geelong, Sydney, Adelaide


Game Previews

 

West Coast v Western Bulldogs

In recent years, the 6th versus 7th Elimination Final has provided the most wins to the lower ranked team in week one of the AFL Finals with the last 10 clashes shared evenly at five apiece between the teams finishing 6th and 7th. The Bulldogs dominated this season’s clash and the 83-75 scoreline did not reflect their dominance, albeit against an Eagles team that was struggling at the time. The Dogs have won four of their last ten against the Eagles and the 11 day break since their last game brings the Bulldogs into this contest. The Dogs are also adept at keeping the score tight and they rarely get blown out. Their worst loss this season was by 57 points to Geelong with their next worse losses by just 25 points to both Geelong (again) and GWS. I lean towards the Bulldogs covering the line in a low scoring arm wrestle and the market agrees, moving two to three points towards the Dogs since Monday.

Bet 1 unit Western Bulldogs +26.5 $1.91 UniBet


Sydney v GWS

Backing the top ranked team to beat the 4th ranked team in the Qualifying Final has been one of the most bankable bets over the past decade with the ladder leading winning the past nine Qualifying Finals against the fourth placed team. All of those wins have been by 20 points or more with the exception of last year when a slumping Fremantle side scraped past the Swans by 9 points. I’m keen to be on the Swans with their edge in finals experience and their 8-2 all time head to head record against little brother. The Swans are the AFL’s best defensive team, conceding only 67 points a game this season and I expect that to be the deciding factor. GWS like any young team in their finals debut have to be risked, especially as they have had two weeks to think about the game and play it in their head.

Bet 2 units Sydney -15.5 $1.92 Crownbet BB


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Geelong v Hawthorn – The footy gods (and AFL House) continue to smile on Hawthorn. They have a much needed 12 day break and will play at home. In a different world, they could easily be facing a trip to Simmonds Stadium on a six day turnaround. The team finishing second has won 7 of the last 10 Qualifying Finals and Geelong are in imposing form with a seven game winning streak. Lean towards Geelong to cover the line.


Adelaide v North Melbourne – The 5th placed team has a 6-4 record over the 8th place team in Elimination Finals over the past decade. On form, I have a strong lean towards the Crows covering the five goal line but am wary that the 14 day break will give North a chance to regroup from the turmoil of the past two months. North have also covered the line in 29 of their last 43 games on a break of seven days or more and have won two of their last four against the Crows.


 

 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 1

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Finals Wk 1

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Finals Wk 1

 

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


NRL Finals Wk 1 2016 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-11.5 Broncos vs Titans

-6.0 Raiders vs Sharks

-3.5 Storm vs Cowboys

-5.5 Panthers vs Bulldogs

 


NRL Finals Wk 1 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Broncos -8.5 $1.90 Ubet

Bet 3 units Raiders -2.5 $1.90 CrownBet / -3.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 1 unit Raiders 13+ $3.35 Topsport

Bet 1 unit Cowboys H2H $2.10 Unibet

Bet 2 units Panthers -5.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / William Hill

 

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Raiders, Cowboys, Panthers


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Broncos vs Titans

-11.5 Broncos

 

Stats

A local derby kicks off the 2016 Finals Series with the Broncos hosting the Titans in the 1st Elimination Final. Brisbane has a dominant record over the Gold Coast, winning 15 of the 20 clashes since the Titans entered the competition in 2007 and they have also won 9 of the previous 10 clashes at Suncorp Stadium, with the Titans only win coming in the 1st meeting at the ground. The Titans snuck into the Top 8 with 27 points (the lowest points tally to qualify since 2007) to make their 1st Final Series since 2010. Regardless of the result, it’s been a successful season for the Titans, who were favoured to win the spoon prior to Round 1. They have been there or thereabouts for most of the season regarding a Finals spot, with a season high of 3rd after Round 1, while their lowest position was 13th in Round 9. The Titans finished the regular season with an 11-12-1 record and were ranked 8th in attack and 9th in defence. They dropped just 1 game from Rounds 19 to 24 before losing their final 2 matches. They have struggled against the Top 8, with just 2 wins from 11 matches and the last of those wins was way back in Round 11. The Titans have been the equal Number 1 betting side ATS, covering in 16 of their 24 matches, including 7 of their last 8 as a road dog, 11 of their last 13 with a start and their last 4 as a double digit outsider, but they have covered in only 1 of their last 4 against the Broncos. In TMP’s they are 13-11 Under, with 5 of their last 6 finishing that way, while 7 of the last 9 clashes with Brisbane have also gone Under. Only once in the previous 13 clashes between the Titans and Broncos have the TMP’s totaled more than 40 and not once in those 13 meetings have the Titans scored more than 16 points. The Titans are a perfect 8 from 8 when converting a half time lead, but have won only 2 of 11 when trailing at the break and only twice in the last 10 clashes with the Broncos have they led at half time. They have scored 28 of their 88 tries in 2016 through their middle 3rd, which is the most of any side, with Ryan James accounting for 11 of those and he ranks 2nd behind Anthony Don as the Titans leading try scorers. Titan’s matches have the lowest average in the competition for the time of the 1st try being scored and in 9 of their last 10 matches, the 1st try has been scored by the 7th minute. The Broncos are again short priced favourites and have won 9 of 12 at home from that position in 2016. They come into this match off the back of 5 consecutive wins which saw them finish 5th with a defence and differential that also rated 5th, while they finished 6th in attack. They have won 10 of 13 at Suncorp Stadium this season and their last 7 wins over the Titans at the venue have all been by a margin of 13+. The Broncos have also won their last 5 Finals matches played at the ground. Brisbane ended the regular season with an 11-13 record ATS, with a 7-6 cover record at Suncorp Stadium, while they have a 9-5 cover record at the ground since 2014 when laying more than 10 points. The Broncos have also covered in 3 of their last 4. Brisbane are 13-11 Over in TMP’s and have had Overs results in 5 of their last 7, while 4 of their last 6 Finals at home have totaled 34 or less. Brisbane is 14-2 with a half time lead, while last week was the 1st time in 8 matches that the Broncos were able to overcome a half time deficit. The Broncos have scored the 1st points of the match in 17 of their 24 matches (12 tries and 5 penalty goals) and no side has opened the scoring with a penalty goal more often than Brisbane and they also took this option in 2 of their Finals matches in 2015. Brisbane has also scored the 1st try of the match in the last 6 meetings with the Titans. Corey Oates is the Broncos leading try scorer with 15 and 10 of those have been scored at Suncorp Stadium, while Milford and Roberts are tied for 2nd with 12 each. Brisbane has won 4 from 4 at home this season under Gerard Sutton, while the home side has covered the last 8 straight with Sutton in charge. Night matches refereed by Sutton have gone 9-4 in favour of the Under.

Preview

Glenn (groin), Andrew McCullough (ankle) and Josh McGuire all trained strongly through captains run Thursday, but Opacic is a late out with Kahu shifting to left centre and Pearson coming in on the wing.

Expect the Broncos to be more serious here this week and we see a finals type approach, as opposed to the complacent carefree offering we got last Thursday night. In to a sudden death game, significant advantage playing at home and healthy long term hold over the Titans they should be very hard to beat. Titans have been very plucky but could well have missed the finals, come off a distant away game to Townsville into another away contest.

The Broncos are 10 wins from 12 against sides in the bottom half of the ladder and have a dominant long term record over the Titans and have won 12 of the last 14 H2H when at home (Suncorp, Brisbane) including the last 9 straight, and notably the last 7 by margins of 14 or more. The Broncos also have a very warm record when 10 or more pt handicap favs at home covering 10 of teh last 14 such occasions. Conversely the Titans record this season against top 8 sides has been poor with just 2 wins from 11 contests.

We saw last week that the gap was around 16 points between the Cowboys sitting 4th into the Titans, I expect this might be something similar. The key to the Broncos here is getting into their groove early, completing with high numbers, low errors, play field position and take any advantage that comes their way. They need to play with some tempo, some ruck speed, off loads and look to move the Titans forwards around, something very similar to what they did to the Storm two weeks ago. The Titans can open up through the middle, and can get lazy lacking sides ways agility which should play to McCullough, Hunt and Milford playing direct with Boyd in support. The Titans will want to mix up a game of arm wrestle, but when in the attacking zone look to Taylor, Roberts and Hayne adding a moment of skill and line break. When on teh Broncos have had a decided defensive edge and can be hard to crack, into a finals game where we are playing for keeps I’m expecting that they aim up with something similar.

Happy to bet the Broncos up to -10 which can be found in a few places. The game circumstances all look right for them here, at home, showed some real quality 10 days ago and what their potential is, good record against the Titans and those of similar quality in against a team who have limped into the finals and look a level of two below whats required here.

Bet 2 units Broncos -8.5 $1.90 Ubet


Raiders vs Sharks

-6.0 Raiders

 

Stats

The Green Machine will look to keep rolling along when the take on the misfiring Sharks at what will be a hostile environment at GIO Stadium. The Raiders have plenty of momentum and are 1 of, if not, the form team heading into the Finals Series and a win over Cronulla will see them make their 1st Preliminary Final since 1997. The Sharks hold a 35-31 all-time advantage over the Raiders and they also have an exceptional record at GIO Stadium, winning 9 of the last 12 clashes. In fact, the home ground advantage has meant little between these sides, with the away team winning 8 of the previous 10 match ups, while wins have been shared equally from the last 16 meetings. The last time these 2 sides met in a Final was back in 2012 at GIO Stadium, the Raiders ran out easy winners on that day, where Josh Papalli became a human missile, with continuous attacks towards the ribs of Paul Gallen, expect this to continue. The Raiders have won 10 straight and another win this week will see them equal a club record of 11 consecutive wins, a record that has stood for more than 20 years. They are also unbeaten at home since Round 8, winning 8 in a row. Canberra stormed home to finish 2nd after 26 Rounds and only once all season have they been positioned out of the Top 8. They have the best attacking record in the NRL, scoring 688 points (a new club record) at an average of 28.67 PPG, while they were 7th in defence, conceding 456 points at an average of 19. Their 232 point differential was also the 2nd best in the league. The Raiders have been a point scoring machine in 2016 and have scored 26 points or more in 12 of their last 14 and they are the only side in the competition to have scored more than 100 tries for the season. They are 16-8 ATS, which is equal best with the Titans and have covered in 11 of their last 14, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 when laying a small start at home. In TMP’s they have had more Overs results than any other side in the competition, producing an 18-6 result, with 11 of their last 13 finishing that way, while high scoring affairs have been the norm against the Sharks, with 9 of the last 10 totaling 40 or more. Canberra is unbeaten in their last 12 matches with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 4 of 9. Canberra has scored the 1st try of the match in 5 of their last 6, while they have scored the last try of the match in their last 9 straight. Jordan Rapana is the Raiders leading try scorer with 20 and he has scored 4 tries in his last 4 games against the Sharks. After setting a new club record of 15 wins, the Sharks have now won only 1 of their last 6. Despite their poor run home, they still finished the regular season in 3rd spot, their best finish since 2008. Like the Raiders, the Sharks had a 17-6-1 record at the conclusion of 26 Rounds. They ranked 3rd in both attack and defence, while their differential rated 4th. Cronulla have not won an away game since Round 19, suffering 1 draw and 3 losses since then, while they have also failed to win their last 3 against a Top 8 opponent. The Sharks are 13-11 ATS and have failed to cover in their 5 of their last 6 and their last 4 straight away from home, while they have a 15-15 record since 2014 when covering as a road dog. In TMP’s they are 13-11 Under but have gone Over in 3 of their last 5, while they are 14-8 Over in night games away from home since 2014. The Sharks have won 12 of 15 with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 4 of 8. A Sharks try has been the 1st scoring play in 9 of the last 12 clashes with the Raiders, while they have opened the scoring with a penalty goal in their last 2 matches against a Top 4 opponent. Valentine Holmes is Cronulla’s leading try scorer with 18 but he has scored only 2 tries from his last 5 games, his driest spell since the opening 5 Rounds. The home team has won the last 6 matches under Matt Cecchin, while they have covered a line in the last 5. Home teams laying a small start have also won and covered in 8 of 10 under Cecchin in 2016. The half time leader has won 11 of the last 12 clashes, while 5 of the last 6 clashes at GIO Stadium have been decided by a margin of 13+.

Preview

I think the Sharks are in free fall winning just 1 of their last 6 games. After weeks of speculation of possibly finishing 1st, then maybe 2nd they now finish 3rd and have an away game at a dam tough venue for a semi final, with a full house of screaming Raiders fans, but they will carry the knowledge that they have won 9 of their last 12 at the ground. The Raiders are full of confidence and belief, are rolling along week in to the next with momentum, they dusted up the Sharks at Cronulla some weeks ago and with that same power and attack game plan can do the same here. They have now won 10 straight and importantly won their last 8 home games.

If we take a closer look at the Sharks form line through recent months it offers some enlightenment behind their poor form. Across their last 8 games they have 3 wins – against the two teams who finished 15th and 16th on the table (Roosters twice and Knights). Across their last 6 games they have 1 win and a draw, and over the last month have really looked out of sorts lacking confidence and quality execution. They can improve, their best form was very good but quite some months ago, time will tell but I just wonder if Coach Flanagan has farked up their post Origin physical plan and unlike the Storm, Cowboys and Broncos who have pumped the hard yards of fitness and tapering into their playing squad and are now coming out the other side on the up into the finals the Sharks have messed this up? They had some moments last week where they were closer, but again their execution was poor, and then defensively they let through some very soft tries.

Flanagan’s whole body language has also looked very poor for many weeks now as well. I was some what staggered to watch him in the dressing room vs Rabbits, and then post game his language, and then we have seen similar since. He has looked flustered and lost, without answers, and through recent days is mow talking up how they have had a great season finishing top 4, nearly winning the minor premiership and their winning streak of 16 games. All but sounding like a guy trying to justify that regardless of what happens now its been a great year, amazing, and all but defeatist.

They now travel two weeks in a row, and both to dam tough away venues. Canberra will be absolutely pumping with 27,000 full house mad screaming excited Raiders fans. We were with the Raiders for their upset win at Shark park some weeks ago when they ran roughshod through the middle with their big men and with that strong yardage game found room and advantage attacking the edges in particular to their favoured right. I see something similar happening again.

Through the first two thirds of the season the Raiders were prone to clocking in and out of games but as their momentum, confidence and belief has build and grown this has become far less an issue. Whacking the Sharks and then Storm can do that for you, and now they finish 2nd spot with a home semi and even with Austin missing feel bullet proof. They had some lazy moments against the Eagles, to be expected but still won comfortably and then steam rolled through a weak Tigers offering. They back themselves, and believe in themselves, its stuff thats hard to buy.

The Sharks are now somewhat up against the wall and could pull a big effort out, but they are hard to have and everything about their form line right now is terrible. I lean far more strongly to them being whacked again and possibly by a margin. I’m not sure if the Raiders can get past the final weeks of this comp, but gee they are up to their ears in it right now. They can match it in the middle, they can hurt you physically, they then have some attacking smarts and a deep bench. The Sharks need discipline and their halves and Barba to fire, and play plenty of ball play and attack.

Happy to be with the Raiders, home advantage, confidence belief and some big boppers to boot. Also a small interest at the Raiders 13+

Bet 3 units Raiders -2.5 $1.90 CrownBet / -3.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 1 unit Raiders 13+ $3.35 Topsport


Storm vs Cowboys

-3.5 Storm

 

Stats

The Minor Premiers of 2016 host the Premiers of 2015 in what shapes as an absolute block buster in a match that could well be a dress rehearsal for the Grand Final in 3 weeks’ time. Melbourne holds a 22-10 all-time advantage over the Cowboys, including 2 wins this season. The Cowboys however, will have no fears about travelling to AAMI Park after recording wins in 2 of their last 3 visits to the venue, including a 20 point victory in last year’s Preliminary Final, while they have also won both previous Finals clashes. For the 2nd year in a row, the Cowboys finished in the Top 4 at the conclusion of the regular season, while it’s the 6th straight year that they have qualified for the Finals. They spent 20 weeks in the Top 4, holding down the Number 1 spot for just 1 week, while they were never positioned out of the Top 8. After 26 Rounds they have a 15-9 win loss record, they have the 2nd best attack, scoring 584 points at an average of 24.3, while they were ranked 3rd in defence, conceding 355 points at an average of 14.8. Their 229 point differential also rated 3rd . They come into this match off the back of 3 straight wins, with 2 of those coming against their Top 8 counterparts. The Cowboys are 13-11 ATS, with a 5-7 cover record on the road, while they are 15-8 since 2014 when covering as an underdog. They have also covered in 4 of their last 5 Finals matches. In TMP’s they are 14-10 in favour of the Under, with an 8-4 Under record on the road, including 7 of their last 8, while 5 of the last 6 clashes with Melbourne have also finished Under, with none of them topping 35. Finals matches since 2014 are also in heavy favour of the Unders, producing a 12-6 result. The Cowboys have been great front runners, winning 14 of 14 with a half time lead, while they have lost 8 of 9 when trailing at the break. They are the Number 1 side in the comp at scoring the 1st try of the match, bagging the 1st 4 pointer on 17 occasions. A winger, fullback or centre has been the Cowboys 1 st try scorer in 7 of the last 8 clashes with the Storm. Antonio Winterstein is the Cowboys leading try scorer with 12, Feldt and O’Neill are equal 2nd with 11, while Gavin Cooper ranks next with 10 and he has scored 3 tries in his last 3 matches against the Storm. Melbourne has been the bench mark in 2016, spending 18 weeks in the Top 2 and like the Cowboys, they have never been positioned out of the Top 8. They too are also contesting their 6th consecutive Finals Series and only once during that period have they finished the regular season out of the Top 4. They come into this match with only 2 wins from their last 4 but had won 6 straight prior. Melbourne won 19 of their 24 matches to secure their 1 st Minor Premiership since 2011. Their defensive efforts had them ranking at the top of the charts, conceding 302 points at an average of 12.5, while their 261 point differential was also the best in the NRL. Their 563 points in attack ranked 4th. The Storm is also 13-11 ATS, with a 6-6 cover record at home, while they have covered in 10 of their last 14 when conceding a start of less than 6 points. In TMP’s they are the Number 1 Unders side in the NRL, with a 17-7 result and have finished that way in 6 of their last 8. They have played 5 matches against their Top 4 counterparts and all 5 of those also finished Under, while 14 of their last 16 have finished Under when they have been favoured by less than 6 points. Melbourne has won 16 of 17 in 2016 with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 3 of 7. The Storm has scored the 1st try of the match on 14 occasions and they have gone on to win 13 of those. Suliasa Vunivalu is the NRL’s Number 1 try scorer with 22 tries in 18 matches since making his debut in Round 7, but he has only scored 1 try from his last 6 matches at AAMI Park. Only once in the previous 8 meetings have the Storm outscored the Cowboys in the 2nd half, while the Cowboys have scored the last try of the match in 5 of the last 6 encounters. The half time leader has won 21 of the last 22 clashes, while in 4 of the last 5 clashes the winning margin has been by single figures. In 8 of the last 12 Week 1 Finals the winning margin has been by 1-12 points. The home favourite has failed to cover a line in the previous 8 matches with Ben Cummins in charge, while night games are 11-5 Under with Cummins at the helm.

Preview

Great clash. Storm heavily advantaged by 3rd week at home and now distinct home advantage, but they meet a well credentialed challenger who dusted them up in an important finals game 12 months ago. I think the winner of this game is then the likely title winner, so much to play for with the advantage of the week off and then the likely softer side of the draw. I’m with the Cowboys, likely wet conditions only likely to make this more of an a physical arm wrestle but they look like they are coming right into the final weeks, they have the power game to match and beat the Storm through the middle, importantly they have the smarts and ball play to hurt them where they have some defensive weakness on their edges.

Looks close and tight, but I want to have a small interest with the visitors.

Bet 1 unit Cowboys H2H $2.10 Unibet


Panthers vs Bulldogs

-5.5 Panthers

 

Stats

The final game of Week 1 sees the inform Panthers hosting the out of from Bulldogs in the 2nd Elimination Final. Like the Broncos and Raiders, the Panthers come into this match with 5 straight wins under their belt, while the Dogs appear to be limping in, suffering losses in their last 3 matches. Recent meetings between the Panthers and Bulldogs have been tight affairs with 7 of the last 8 clashes decided by a single figure margin, while 7 of the last 9 encounters have totaled 38 or less. The Bulldogs hold a 51-35 all-time advantage over the Panthers, coupled with 3 draws. The Dogs have won the 2 most recent meetings, including a win on the siren in the only meeting this year. Canterbury dropped from 4th to 7th in the closing Rounds but they were never positioned out of the Top 8 all season, winning 14 of their 24 matches. They have had a favourable draw, with just 5 matches played outside of NSW and 10 matches against their Top 8 counterparts, where they have struggled recently, losing 5 of 6. After 26 Rounds, the Bulldogs ranked 9th in attack and 6th in defence, but since Round 20 they are ranked 15 th in attack and 12th in defence. The Dogs have been the worst cover team in the NRL, with a 7-17 record ATS and they have failed to cover in their last 9 straight, while they have also failed to cover in their last 4 as a road outsider. In TMP’s they are split 12-12, while 5 of their last 7 have finished Unders. They have also had Unders results in 8 of their 12 away games, while they are 9-3 Under since 2014 as a road outsider with a start of less than a converted try. The Dogs have won 11 of 15 matches with a half time lead, but have lost their last 6 straight when trailing at the break. Curtis Rona is the Bulldogs leading try scorer with 11, but he has scored just 1 try from his last 7 matches, while Brett Morris ranks 2nd, scoring 10 tries from his 10 appearances. The Panthers have come home with a wet sail, winning 7 of their last 8 matches, which saw them move from 9th to 6th during that period. They also finished the regular season with 14 wins but their 100 point differential was superior to that of the Bulldogs. Penrith ranked 5th in attack averaging 23.45 points a game, while they were 8th in defence, conceding an average of 19.29, but since Round 20 the Panthers are ranked 2nd in attack (31.14 PPG) and 1st in defence (12.28 PPG). The Panthers are 14-10 ATS and have covered in 6 of their last 7, including their last 4 when laying a start. In TMP’s the Panthers are also split 12-12, while they have had Overs results in their last 5 when laying a start of 6 points or less. Penrith have won their last 8 matches with a half time lead, while they are 4 & 7 when trailing at the break. The Panthers have scored the 1st points of the match in 6 of their last 7 and only once from those 7 matches have they conceded more than 1 1st half try. The home side has scored the opening try of the match in 9 of the last 10 clashes. Josh Mansour is the Panthers leading try scorer with 15 and in his last 6 matches he has bagged 3 doubles. Matches with Jared Maxwell in charge are 15-10 in favour of the Unders

Preview

Bulldogs have been a mess for weeks, Kasanio will be a key in but gee they are hard to have. Panthers just keep getting the job done, and have positive ball play, skill and speed to hurt the Bulldogs.

I’m sure the Bulldogs will be focused and hell bent on defence here, and look to turn this into a slow temp’d physical arm wrestle with their younger opponents. But if the the Panthers can play with some smarts, play off load and second phase play it will negate this and open things up and potentially lad to another issue for the Bulldogs, that of chasing from behind. Given there style is to try and hold an opponent into a tight arm wrestle and wear you down to a result if they are jumped on the scoreboard they struggle.

I hope we get some open footy here, some attack and points, but it is a semi final. The Panthers are young and inexperienced and need to hold their head, but they have been a very different side since Nathan Cleary has settled in at #7, he is a class act and given them the direction and balance they required. I think he is again the different here and can lead an attack focused advantage.

Like the Panthers. It’s not clear cut but I think they are suited here with their game style, off load and support play and the smarts of the #7 and #6.

Bet 2 units Panthers -5.5 Sportsbet / William Hill


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Wk 1

 

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting | Round 26

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting | Round 26

 

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 26 2016 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-14.5 Broncos vs Roosters

-2.5 Bulldogs vs Rabbits

-12.5 Dragons vs Knights

-14.5 Cowboys vs Titans

-5.5 Storm vs Sharks

+4.5 Tigers vs Raiders

-4.5 Warriors vs Eels

-14.5 Panthers vs Eagles

 


NRL Round 26 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 3 units Broncos -10.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet

Bet 2 units Broncos -12.5 $1.92 CrownBet / William Hill or 13+ elsewhere

Bet 2 units Bulldogs-Rabbits under 36 $1.85 Luxbet / 35.5 CrownBet / Bet365

Bet 3 units Cowboys -9.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet

Bet 3 units Panthers -8.5 $1.90 CrownBet / William Hill BB

 

Notes: With 9 teams still playing for final top 8 spots including the importance of either top 4 (double chance) or a home semi final we have key games where we know teams are playing to win. I see three games where those in form and playing at home should have a decided form advantage. Broncos certainly put their hand up last week with an impressive offering, they have the advantage of a 7 day turn around into an opponent who rolled over poorly in the 2nd this week and now face a short 5 day turn around into an interstate away game. The Cowboys also have an additional 2 day prep advantage this week and as we know hold a commanding advantage at home, the Titans have been very good but look busted, tired, have to travel and up against it. The Panthers are rolling along nicely, they too return home and should have too much skill and ball movement for an Eagles side busted with injury, likely to have further player outs and season’s end can’t come quick enough.

 

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Bulldogs, Dragons, Cowboys, Storm, Raiders, Eels, Panthers


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Broncos vs Roosters

-14.5 Broncos

 

Stats

The Broncos and Roosters kick off the final Round of 2016 in what will be Corey Parker’s final game of the regular season at Suncorp Stadium. The Roosters ran out big winners when these sides met just 5 weeks ago but the Broncos haven’t been beaten since, going a 4 game winning run. Brisbane holds a 25-17 all-time advantage over the Roosters who have reduced the deficit in recent meetings, having won 4 of the last 6 clashes. They have also won 4 of the previous 6 meetings at Suncorp Stadium, but the 2 losses have come from their 2 most recent visits to the venue, including a 19 point loss in last year’s Preliminary Final. The Roosters are coming off their biggest loss in 3 months and have nothing to play for, while the Broncos are coming off their best win of the season to keep alive their slim hopes of a Top 4 finish. Brisbane is 5 th with a 14-9 win loss record, while they are ranked 5th in attack and 4th in defence. They have won 9 of 11 against sides in the bottom half of the ladder, while their last 2 wins have been against Top 6 counterparts. The Broncos have won 9 of 12 at Suncorp Stadium this season to make it 20 wins from 26 matches at the ground since the return of Wayne Bennett. They are 11-12 ATS and have now covered in their last 3 straight, while they have a 7-5 cover record at Suncorp in 2016. In TMP’s they are 12-11 in favour of the Over, with 4 of their last 5 at home all finishing that way, while 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Roosters have also finished Over. Brisbane is 14-2 with a half time lead, while they have lost 8 from 8 when trailing at the break. Tom Opacic has been the 1st try scorer of the match in his last 2 matches. After securing 3 consecutive Minor Premierships, the Roosters fall from grace has been dramatic, they are in 15th spot and are set for their lowest finish since 2009. They have won only 6 of their 23 matches and recorded just the 1 win from 11 away games, losing their last 8 straight on the road. The Roosters are 13th in attack and in defence, with a differential that rates 14th. They have lost 12 of 14 against the Top 8, ironically both of those wins were against last year’s grand Finalists and both of those wins were with the home ground advantage. The Roosters are 9-14 ATS and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 8 games on the road, while they have also failed to cover in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Broncos. In TMP’s they are 16-7 in favour of the Over, with 7 of their last 9 finishing that way, while they are 9-4 Over as a road outsider since 2014. The Roosters have lost 12 from 12 this season when trailing at half time and have converted 6 of 9 when in front at the break. The 1st try of the match has been scored by the 8th minute in 8 of the roosters last 9 games.

Preview

Broncos certainly bounced up with a quality win and effort last week in Melbourne. They had been on the improve but I hadn’t expected that size of improvement into that opponent or away venue, Bennett is just a bloody master at this game and getting his teams right when it matters. I was asked on radio during the week where and why I thought such improvement had come from, I think its a few factors coming together at the right time. They have got key players back through recent weeks, notably on their left edge where they had been in all sorts of trouble; Opacic who Bennett has had to blood quickly and get some games into at left centre has come up; he has reshuffled to effect his forward line up and left edge with Thaiday now playing there (had always been a right edge player) and Alex Glenn coming off the bench (noted starting player and left edge player); clearly come off a tapered fitness program into September, and clearly growing in confidence off recent wins albeit against weaker form lines. But, all said and done while I could see improvement they kifted to a new level of motivation and execution last Friday, a high quality win. Makes for a great finals series!

Roosters have lost two key players into this, and already have thin depth and are playing kids in some key positions. They now lose their best player in Boyd Cordner and then also key forward and goal kicker in Sio Sia Taukeiaho, they have lost 12 of their last 14 games against Top 8 sides and now lost 10 of their last 11 Away games – some very poor key stats into a game vs 5th on table and away venue. They led 12-0 last week vs the Sharks and I though had them in some deep trouble, but rolled over ever so meekly in the second half. I think that last 40 mins plus these key outs all but puts an end to their season and while they’ll try I’m not so sure how long they stay in this game.

Broncos on a positive roll, week out from finals, can then sew up 5th spot and play into some further positive combination. Like the Broncos here.

Further advice is that Kenny-Dowall will also be a late out for Roosters today, further weakening their list and offering.

Bet 3 units Broncos -10.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet

Bet 2 units Broncos -12.5 $1.92 CrownBet / William Hill or 13+ elsewhere


Bulldogs vs Rabbits

-2.5 Bulldogs

 

Stats

The out of form Bulldogs and the inform Rabbitohs face off in the final Friday night fixture of the regular season. The Dogs are in desperate need of a win to gain some momentum heading into the Finals, while the Bunnies are looking to make it 4 consecutive wins for the 1st time in 2016 and end their season on a positive note. The Rabbitohs had won 5 of 6 including the 2014 Grand Final before the Dogs went back to back in the 2 most recent encounters. Wins have been shared equally from the last 10 meetings, while the Bulldogs hold a strong all-time advantage at ANZ Stadium, winning 15 of 23. The Dogs have now dropped to 6th and a loss could see them finish 7th if other results go against them. They are ranked 7th in attack and 5th in defence but since Round 20, those rankings have dropped to 15th and 9th respectively. Canterbury have won 7 of their last 8 matches played at ANZ Stadium, while they have also won their last 8 matches against sides in the bottom half of the ladder. The Dogs are now the worst cover team in the NRL, with a 7-16 record ATS and they have failed to cover in their last 8 straight, while they have also failed to cover in 9 of their last 10 as a home underdog. In TMP’s they are 12-11 Under, with 5 of their last 6 finishing that way, while 5 of their last 7 at ANZ Stadium have gone Over. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Rabbitohs. Consider Curtis Rona in try scorer calculations as he has scored in his last 3 matches against Souths and he has also scored 22 tries from 25 matches at ANZ Stadium. Souths are in 13th spot and will miss the Finals for the 1st time under Michael Maguire. They have an 8-15 record, with an attack and defence that both rank 12th. They have won only 1 of 10 matches against a Top 8 opponent, while they have lost 7 of their last 9 matches played at ANZ Stadium. The Rabbitohs are 10-13 ATS but have covered in their last 4 as a road dog, while they have only covered in 2 of their last 9 at Homebush. In TMP’s they are 14-9 in favour of the Overs, with a 7-3 Over record at ANZ Stadium. The Rabbitohs have conceded 25 tries through their middle third this season, which is the most of any club. TMP’s have finished Overs in 9 of the last 11 night games with Ashley Klein in charge.

Preview

The only thing to like about this game is the weather forecast, with a 50 mms downpour forecast for all day Friday across Sydney, onto a ground we already know can be damp and slippery.

I think the key form factor here is this – Bulldogs have won last 8 straight vs sides in bottom half of ladder, Souths have won just 1 of their last 8 against Top 8.

The Bulldogs have been very poor through recent weeks against good teams around them on the table in the Broncos and then Cowboys, once again their handling and halves execution has let them down, but they do seem to get the job done when against those in the bottom half of the table. And surely a week out for finals footy they have more to be playing for here. Rabbits have been good and found some winning form including beating the Sharks in wet conditions here, but then flogging the Knights is no reference as we know, they have Inglis in some doubt and or carrying injury and realistically into their last game of the season it’s not hard to mentally start to drop your focus knowing its about to all be over.

Slight lean to Bulldogs, but with the likely heavy wet weather I want to be with the unders, we saw similar conditions and bet accordingly two weeks ago at this ground to see only 18 points scored, I’m hoping for a repeat of something similar.

Bet 2 units Bulldogs-Rabbits under 36 $1.85 Luxbet / 35.5 CrownBet / Bet365


Dragons vs Knights

-12.5 Dragons

 

Stats

Super Saturday gets under way in what shapes as an absolute bludger when the 2 worst attacking teams in the competition go head to head at Jubilee Oval in a match that has no relevance what so ever. The Dragons have won 8 of the last 10 clashes with the Knights which indicates how bad Newcastle is travelling. The Knights have lost their last 3 visits to Jubilee Oval, with their last win at the ground back in 2009. They have spent a total of 18 weeks in 16th place with a season high of 14th, while their attack and defence are the worst in the NRL era. They have lost 17 straight with just 1 win and a draw for the season and they have conceded 26 points or more in 10 of their last 11. Their last 6 losses have all been by 13+ with an average losing margin of 24 points, while they have failed to score more than 6 1st half points in 8 of their last 9. Newcastle is 8-15 ATS and has covered in only 2 of 9 on the road with a double digit advantage, while they have failed to cover in their last 3 against the Dragons. They are 13-10 Over in TMP’s with 7 of their 11 away games finishing that way and 6 of those have totaled 52 or more. Only twice all season have the Knights posted a score of 20 points or more, while they have conceded fewer than 20 on just 2 occasions. The Knights have conceded the 1st try in 20 of their 23 matches. The Dragons story doesn’t read a whole lot better, with 7 losses from their last 8 matches, including 3 losses from their last 4 at home. They have however, won 8 of their last 11 at Jubilee Oval, while they have also won 13 of their last 17 as a home favourite. The Dragons are 11th with a defence that ranks 10th, while both their attack and differential are the 2nd worst in the NRL. They are 11-12 ATS and have covered in 7 of their 11 home games, while they have covered in 5 of their last 6 at Kogorah. In TMP’s they are 15-8 in favour of the Unders, but their last 3 have all topped 48. Like the Knights, the Dragons have also struggled for points and in their last 8 matches they have averaged just 4 1st half points. The Dragons are unbeaten this season with a half time lead, winning 8 from 8, while they have lost 14 of 15 when trailing at half time. In the 6 meetings from 2011 – 2013 the TMP’s finished Unders, at an average of 27, but 3 of the 4 most recent clashes have totaled 48 or more. The home sides has lost the last 7 matches with Henry Perenara in charge.

Preview

If Dragons have any real gumption or pride then back at home, last game, under enormous focus they should win. They have won 7 of their last 8 vs Knights but have only won just 1 of last 8 games and in all of those 8 last 8 games have only surpassed 12 pts just twice. But, they do come through a much harder form line and surely this is the major drop in grade and break through opportunity for them to finish a disappointing and ugly season with.

The Knights have lost their last 17 straight, an ugly record, their last 6 losses have all been by margins 13+ with an average losing margin of 24 points and they travel here which has also been a major negative. They may have some advantage with the Dragons off a short 5 day turn around (Monday) but I still have this a 12 to 14 point advantage to the home side.

Nothing to like about the game, Dragons should win.


Cowboys vs Titans

-14.5 Cowboys

 

Stats

A Queensland derby with huge implications for both sides when the Titans travel to Townsville to take on the Cowboys. The Cowboys need a win to secure a spot in the Top 4, while a win for the Titans will sure up their spot in the 8, if the Titans lose they will be sweating on the Raiders defeating the Tigers to ensure they still qualify for their 1st Final Series since 2010. Both sides have 8 wins from the 16 clashes, while wins have also been shared equally from the last 10 encounters, but the Cowboys have won 5 of the last 6 meetings at 1300SMILES Stadium. The Cowboys moved back into the Top 4 after last week’s road win over the Dogs and they are now back at home where they have won 10 of 11 in 2016. They have the 3rd best attack, while their defence and differential both rank 2nd. North Queensland is 5 & 5 against the Top 8 sides, while they have won 4 of 5 against sides ranked 5th to 8th. They are 12-11 ATS and have covered in 7 of their last 8 at home when laying more than a converted try. In TMP’s they are 14-9 in favour of the Unders and 7 of their last 8 have finished that way, while 6 of their last 7 against a Top 8 opponent have also gone Under. The Cowboys are a perfect 13 from 13 with a half time lead and have trailed at the break in only 2 of their last 13 at home. The Titans have been the Cinderella story of the NRL this season with many tipping them to be a bottom 4 outfit. They are clinging to 8th spot on 27 points with an 11-11-1 record, while they have an attack and defence that both rank 9th. They have won 5 of their last 7 on the road and 3 of their last 4 as a road dog. The Titans have struggled for wins against their Top 8 counterparts, with only 2 wins from 10 matches. They are 16-7 ATS, the best cover record in the NRL and have covered in 11 of their last 12 when getting a start, while they have covered in their last 5 straight as a road dog when getting a start of more than a converted try. In TMP’s they are 13-10 Under, including their last 5 straight, while 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Cowboys in Townsville have also finished Under. The Titans are a perfect 8 from 8 with a half time lead, but have won only 2 of 12 when trailing at the break. The home team has won 16 of the last 19 matches with Matt Cecchin at the helm.

Preview

Pressure game for both sides with much in play, but for mine far more for Titans. A Cowboys win sews up 4th spot and the double chance to then defend their title, so they have plenty to play for and motivation should be no issue. As we know they have an outstanding home track record (won 10 of their last 11), and come off some recent winning form and like the Broncos look to have their run into September tapered and tailored nicely. They will be with out Scott but get Hannant back, and have some quality depth.

The Titans have an ask, a distant away game to a tough venue with a win then ensuring 8th spot, but even with a loss should the Tigers be rolled they still make it. Their record against the point end of the table is not good with just 2 wins from their last 10 matches when against Top 8 sides. In short this probably says it all, they have had a super season, achieved well above everyone’s expectation, have been the form underdog for much of the season, but have struggled to beat the good ones and that’s what they now face here.

The Cowboys have the 3rd best attack and 2nd best defence and I expect that should be the path again through this game. The Titans can leak 22 pts a game on the road, while the Cowboys consistently only concede 11 points a game at home. The Cowboys are building nicely, Thurston in particular growing his form and leadership, I think they can win, have a bit to now play for and do so by 10 points or more.

Bet 3 units Cowboys -9.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet


Storm vs Sharks

-5.5 Storm

 

Stats

The fight for the Minor Premiership will be decided at AAMI Park when the Storm play host to the Sharks in a top of the table block buster. Melbourne has a dominate record over Cronulla, having won 10 of the previous 12 encounters and the Sharks are yet to defeat the Storm at AAMI Park, losing 6 straight, while they haven’t won in Melbourne since 2008. The Storm is coming off just their 2nd home loss of the season and only twice in 85 matches at AAMI Park have they lost back to back games. Melbourne is also undefeated in their final home game of the regular season since the year 2000. They come into this match with 2 losses from their last 3 matches but remain on top of the ladder with the 4th best attack and the best defensive record in the NRL, still only conceding an average of 12.9 PPG, while their 241 point differential is also the best in the competition. Melbourne has a 6-4 record against their Top 8 rivals, while they have won 13 of their last 16 as a home favourite. They are 12-11 ATS, but have failed to cover in 3 of their last 4 at home, while they have also failed to cover in 5 of their last 6 at home when laying a start of more than a converted try. In TMP’s they remain as the Number 1 Unders side in the comp, with a 16-7 result, including 5 of their last 7, while they are 7-2 under against their Top 8 counterparts. A Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in 11 of the last 12 meetings with the Sharks who have conceded 1st points in 3 of their last 4. The Storm has won 15 of 16 this season with a half time lead, while they have a 92% conversion rate at AAMI Park when they have led at the break. The Sharks returned to the winners list last week after going winless for a month but they remain in 2nd place with a chance of securing just their 3rd Minor Premiership in their 50 year history and their 1st since 1999. They have a 6-4-1 record away from home this season and have failed to win their last 3 on the road. Cronulla average just 9 points a game against Melbourne from the last 12 clashes and they haven’t scored more than 6 1 st half points in any of those matches. They have spent 16 weeks in the top 2 spots with the 2nd best attack and a defence and differential that both rank 3rd. The Sharks are 13-10 ATS, but have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5, while they have also failed to cover in their last 3 on the road. In TMP’s they are 12-11 Under but have gone Over in 3 of their last 4, while they are 14-7 Over in night games away from home since 2014. The Sharks have won 12 of 15 with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 4 of 7. The home side has covered the line in the last 7 night matches with Gerard Sutton in charge.

Preview

Clearly a cracking game. The Storm hold some advantage with the game being at Home where they very rarely lose 2 in a row, and they hold a nice long term advantage over the Sharks winning 10 of the last 12. They are also getting two key forwards back. The Sharks broke back for a win last week but the second half effort of the Roosters was very poor, so that quality doesn’t read that well.

The key to the game is how the Sharks look to play this. The Storm don’t like being belted physically through the middle (as we saw a few weeks ago vs Raiders) and the Sharks are another who can play tough and physical and work them over. They also wrestle well, and have plenty of niggle in them, which can well frustrate the Storm. But, with all of this the Sharks have plenty of ill discipline and can give away numerous penalties and cost themselves advantage, they’ll need to get the balance right. The Storm also have some defensive issues on both edges, something the Sharks have the strengths and brains to target and exploit.

Looks a tough hard close physical arm wrestle. I have a slight lean to the Storm at home and their experience with these semi final styled games, but looks a great contest.


Tigers vs Raiders

+4.5 Tigers

 

Stats

The only match of the Round featuring 2 last start winners sees the Tigers hosting the Raiders at Leichardt Oval. Depending on the results of earlier matches, the outcome of this game could have major implications for both sides, with the Tigers looking to take the final spot in the Top 8 and the Raiders aiming for a Top 2 finish. The Raiders put the cleaners through the Tigers when they last met in Round 6, with Canberra scoring their biggest ever win over the Tigers in a 54 point thrashing. Canberra has won 3 of the last 4 meetings and a win in this match will be the 1st time in 10 years that they have swept the Tigers in a season. The have won 9 in a row (their longest winning run since 1995), including winning their last 4 on the road. They are the best attacking side in the NRL, averaging 28 points a game, while they are ranked 6th in defence, giving them a 190 point differential that rates 4th. The Raiders have won 9 of 12 against those in the bottom half of the ladder and they haven’t been beaten by a bottom 8 opponent since Round 10. They are 15-8 ATS and have covered in their last 6 away games, while they have also covered in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Tigers. In TMP’s they have had more Overs results than any other side in the competition, producing a 17-6 result, with 10 of their last 12 finishing that way. The Raiders are also a big Overs side in day games, going 13-2 Over in 2016, with a 32-10 record in day games since 2014. Canberra is unbeaten in their last 11 matches with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 4 of 9. Jordan Rapana scored 4 tries in the last meeting with the Tigers. The Tigers defied the odds last week to keep their finals hopes alive but will need to improve significantly on that performance if they are any chance of defeating the Raiders. The Tigers have been a 50/50 proposition at Leichardt Oval since 2013, winning only 8 of their 16 matches at the ground, while they have lost 9 of 12 this season against a Top 8 opponent. They have 14th ranked defence, while their attack ranks 10th, giving them a differential of -66 that also ranks 10th. The Tigers have won 4 of their last 5 at home and have a 5-4 record at home in 2016 as an underdog. They are 13-10 ATS and have covered in 8 of their last 10, while they have covered in their last 5 straight at Leichardt Oval when getting a start. The Tigers also have a 13-10 record in TMP’s which is in favour of the Overs and 5 of their last 7 at Leichardt have also finished Over, while they are 6- 2 Under in day games at home this season. Last week was the 1st time this season that the Tigers were able to overcome a half time deficit, having lost 8 from 8 previously, while they have won 10 of 13 when leading at the break.

Preview

Key to this game will be if Sharks have lost and 2nd spot is open for the Raiders, and if the Titans are beat then the Tigers have 8th spot to play for. The Tigers were plucky last week and finished the game strongly late but against an opponent who laid down terribly. Leichhardt is a nice advantage here but I dependent on how fair dinkum the Raiders are there are certainly questions on how the match up in the middle and the potency of their attack without Tedesco. I don’t think Stuart will rest many players, and while he won’t have them wound up they will still be playing with combination and confidence. Lots of ifs and buts, does look a game of points, lean to Raiders but a game best watched.


Warriors vs Eels

-4.5 Warriors

 

Stats

The 2nd and final match of the Round that has no impact on the makeup of the Top 8 sees Parramatta travel to New Zealand to take on the Warriors. The Eels hold a 19-16 all-time advantage over the Warriors who have won the last 3 match ups and the last 5 straight at Mt Smart Stadium. Both sides have had forgettable seasons which have been the norm in recent times, with neither of these 2 sides having featured in a Final Series for the last 5 years. The Warriors have lost 3 in a row, conceding 34 points or more in all of those losses, while they have lost their last 4 against sides in the bottom of the 8. They are currently 10th on the ladder, with an attack that ranks 8 th, while they are now the 2nd worst defensive team in the competition, conceding an average of 24 PPG. As has been the case for several years, the Warriors made a charge through the Origin period, winning 4 of 5 between their Bye Rounds to sit 7th after 18 Rounds, but that was as high as they got, spending a total of just 5 weeks in the Top 8 all season. The Warriors are 10-13 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 3, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 5 at Mt Smart Stadium. They have also failed to cover in 7 of their last 8 as a favourite. In TMP’s they are 13-10 Over, with their last 2 at home topping 60, while 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Eels have also finished Overs. A Warriors try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 3 clashes with the Eels, while the team to score the 1st try of the match has won 12 of the previous 13 encounters. The Eels have lost 5 of their last 7 and will be looking to end their horror season with back to back wins and if they can, it will be the 1st time since 2005 that they have won their final 2 games of the regular season. They have struggled on the road in recent times though, losing their last 5 straight away from home. Despite their 14th position on the ladder, the Eels have a 12-11 win loss record, with 7 of those wins coming from 9 games against sides in the bottom half of the ladder. Parramatta is 14-9 ATS, with a 7-4 cover record on the road, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 as a road dog getting more than a 6 point advantage. In TMP’s they are 13-10 in favour of the Under, but have had Overs results in their last 3 straight, while they have also gone Overs in 5 of their last 6 away from home.

Preview

The Warriors are once again a disgrace, pea hearts at when it matters toward season end. They have lost their last 3 leaking soft points, and have lost their last 4 games against bottom 8 sides, they fold under pressure quicker than a 3 legged card table. The Eels opened +10.5 on this game and it’s now +4.5, that’s what the punters now think of the Warriors… I like the Eels, they come off a positive win, will be looking to continue that here, they have some physical presence and then preparedness to play with the ball which should favour them against this opponent, and a likely high scoring game. Eels to win but nothing else doing.


Panthers vs Eagles

-14.5 Panthers

 

Stats

After 191 games, we have now reached the final match of the regular season when the Panthers host the Sea Eagles from Pepper Stadium. The Panthers are on a winning run, with 6 wins from their last 7 matches and their Finals spot secured, while they have also won 5 of the previous 6 clashes with the Sea Eagles. For Manly, it’s been a long season that will end here as they look to avoid 5 consecutive losses. Recent meetings have been reasonably close contests, with the 5 matches since 2013 all decided by a margin of 1-12 points, while the Panthers have won 3 of the last 4 match ups at Pepper Stadium. Penrith are in 7th spot, with the 6th best attack and the 8th rated defence, giving them a 70 point differential that ranks 7th. They have won 9 of 12 against a bottom 8 opponent, winning the last 3 of those by 20, 36 and 30 points respectively. The Panthers have scored 30 points or more in 4 of their last 6 and last week was the 1st time in 7 matches that they have been outscored in the 2nd half. Penrith are 13-10 ATS with a 9-3 cover record against the bottom 8, while they have covered in their last 6 against the Sea Eagles. In TMP’s the Panthers are 12-11 Over, with 7 of their last 9 versus the bottom 8 totaling 48 or more, while 4 of their last 6 at pepper Stadium have totaled 50 or more. The Panthers have won their last 7 matches with a half time lead, but have lost 7 of 11 when trailing at the break. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has been the last try scorer of the match in the previous 2 clashes with the Sea Eagles. The Sea Eagles are in 12th spot and have been out of finals contention for number of weeks and only once this season have they been positioned in the Top 8. Both their attack and defence rank 12th, while their negative 81 differential rates 12th. They have lost their last 10 straight against the Top 8 and they have lost 6 of their last 7 on the road. In their last 3 matches the Sea Eagles have conceded a combined total of 102 points and only once in their last 7 matches have they won the 2nd half. Manly are 10-13 ATS and have failed to cover in 3 of their last 4, but they have covered in 5 of their last 6 on the road when getting a start of 8 points or more. In TMP’s they are 12-11 Under, with 6 of their last 8 on the road finishing that way. The Sea Eagles have a 6-2 record with a half time lead, while they have won only 2 of 14 when trailing at the break. Dylan Walker has scored 3 tries in his last 2 games against the Panthers.

Preview

If the Panthers want to put in here then they could really make a mess of this. I am leaning to the expectation that they will, as it is also just in their nature to be free flowing, ball playing attack focused given their youth and talent, and they meet a weak opponent riddled with injuries and now lacking any desire on their home track. The Eagles play games every week with the naming of their team list yet in the last 24 hrs they have now made noises of 3 likely outs to add to their already long list. While they scored some points last week it was an open game more akin to touch footy lacking any intensity. Now into their last game happy for their season to be over and with further outs they do look cannon fodder here.

The Panthers are assured of a semi final spot so there is some risk of complacency, but they come through a nice winning streak building confidence and combinations (especially their halves) and at home I still expect their natural game to create too much opportunity. They have now been well bet, we should have advantage with the position we have, lets now look for the Panthers to put their foot down and put this game (and margin) beyond doubt.

Bet 3 units Panthers -8.5 $1.90 CrownBet / William Hill BB


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 26

 

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


AFL Round 23

 

Bet 2 units Hawthorn-Collingwood over 176.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB

Bet TBA – Fremantle-Western Bulldogs over

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Adelaide, Geelong, Carlton, Sydney, Port Adelaide, GWS, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs


Game Previews

 

Hawthorn v Collingwood

Hawthorn are the best in the AFL at rebounding from a loss and have won 11 of their last 12 matches played at the MCG in the week following a loss. However, I don’t have the confidence in them to cover a five goal line while adjusting to the loss of Ceglar. However, I do expect this to be a free scoring game. From 2010 to 2016, Sunday afternoon matches in the final round of the season have averaged nearly 190 points as playoff bound teams sharpen their attack and teams out of the eight take a loose and carefree approach. Further, the last five clashes between these two teams have yielded 192, 177, 201, 203 and 235 points. The market agrees and has moved five to six points towards the over since Tuesday morning. It has also firmed since our SMS recommendation on Thursday morning.

Bet 2 units Hawthorn-Collingwood over 176.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB


Fremantle v Western Bulldogs

Pav’s last hurrah should ensure that Fremantle come ready to play against the Doggies. The line has been set very low due to the defensive minded nature of both teams and the wet weather forecast today and Saturday. Depending upon how much rain Perth gets, I may recommend an over bet later today or tomorrow. Fremantle are not the defensive side they used to be and their last five matches have yielded 166, 212, 174, 184 and 186 points – well over the line available for this match. At home, they should be able to score enough goals to ensure the total goes over.

Bet TBA – Fremantle-Western Bulldogs over


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Adelaide v West Coast – They won’t need to open the dressing room doors for either side tonight! I lean towards Adelaide continuing their good form and covering the line. The market is moving towards the over, but I’m not convinced and note that Eagles have gone under in 15 of 21 games this season and in 18 of their last 26 night games.


Geelong v Melbourne – It’s hard to know where Melbourne’s head will be there for this one after last week’s season loss to Carlton cruelled their finals hopes. The bookies have offered Melbourne a five goal start but this doesn’t interest me. I have no interest in Geelong either after they struggled to put the Lions to the sword last week. They are a poor 10-25 as a 30.5+ favourite.


Essendon v Carlton – Carlton have covered the line in 23 of their last 34 day games and I lean towards the Blues covering.


Sydney v Richmond – Swans obviously have everything to play for and should cover the large line against the Tigers. However, I respect the Tigers good recent head to head record against the Swans and won’t be taking them on. Tigers have gone under total match score line in 11 of their last 14 as an interstate dog.


Gold Coast v Port Adelaide – Port have covered the line in 22 of their last 32 night games. I expect them to have too much run for a depleted Suns side that is obviously cooked. Market has moved three points towards Port since Tuesday morning.


North Melbourne v GWS – Intriguing clash! Keys stats favouring both sides with GWS covering 24 of their last 35 as favourite and North covering 21 of their last 30 as a home dog. Danger game!


St Kilda v Brisbane – Lions continue to leak points and have gone over in an amazing 17 of 21 games this season. Accordingly, the market has been set very high and I’m happy to pass on this one.


 


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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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