AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 17

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 17

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 17

 

Bet 1 unit Collingwood-North Melbourne under 180.5 $1.90 Luxbet

Bet 2 units West Coast-Melbourne  under 186.5 $1.91 Bet365 BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Collingwood, Sydney, Gold Coast, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Essendon, Hawthorn, GWS


Game Previews

 

Collingwood v North Melbourne

High stakes game with North desperate to arrest their slide and the Pies still a mathematical chance of scraping into the eight. Not keen to play the line with two last start losers involved but note the market has moved 4-5 points towards the Pies since Tuesday morning. I think there is a good chance an arm wrestle could eventuate while the loss of Waite will reduce North’s chance of kicking a big score. North have gone under the total match score line in 10 of their last 11 games. Collingwood have gone under the total match score line in 36 of their last 50 night games and in six of their last eight games this season. I also note it is the Pies first game at Etihad this season and they may take a while to find their groove at this ground. The market agrees and has moved two points towards the under since Tuesday morning

Bet 1 unit Collingwood-North Melbourne under 180.5 $1.90 TAB Sportsbet


West Coast v Melbourne

This match represents another opportunity to the Eagles to cement their bully boy status at home. The bookies have the line about right and I note it has firmed 1-2 points towards Melbourne this week. I am leaning towards this match going under. The Eagles may have won four in a row but to my eye, their attack has not been firing on all cylinders, even before the Carlton match with big scores against the Lions and Dons achieved with the help of a 67% conversion rate. Melbourne have a woeful record at Domain Stadium recording 54, 53, 40, 40 and 58 points in their last five visits and although an improved outfit, it’s a big mental hurdle. Furthermore, eight of Melbourne’s last nine matches at Domain have yielded under 186.5 points. The Eagles have gone under in 12 of 16 games this season and four of Melbourne’s last five  games have gone under 186.5 points. The last three head to head clashes have yielded 174, 172 and 153 points. Light showers are forecast throughout the day and if there is any substance to them, it will further enhance the prospect of the match going under.

Bet 2 units West Coast-Melbourne  under 186.5 $1.91 Bet365 BB


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Sydney v Carlton – Both sides play their best football in the day, with the Blues covering in 20 of their last 29 day games and the Swans covering in 28 of their last 41 day games. Danger game!


Gold Coast v Fremantle – Freo have gone under in 11 of 16 games this season however the Suns have gone over in 30 of their last 44 day games. Slightest of leans to the under with the Suns lacking midfield firepower.


Western Bulldogs v St Kilda – Dogs have yielded under 170.5 in their last four matches and the Saints have yielded over 170.5 in their last five matches. Slightest of leans towards the under with the Dogs  usually controlling the tempo well at Etihad.


Geelong v Adelaide – Cats have been a big under side this season going under in 11 of their 16 games. Crows have gone over in 12 of their last 16 interstate trips but more recently they have gone under in five of their last seven games this season with low yields in their last two games. Lean to the under.


Essendon v Brisbane – Lions have only covered the line in 11 of their last 38 games but  I wouldn’t touch this game with stolen money. Slight lean to the over with Lions going over in 12 of 16 games this season and Essendon yielding at least 182 points in each of their last five games.


Hawthorn v Richmond – Tigers have beaten the Hawks in three of the last five clashes but with Hardwick playing rookies, there won’t be an upset here. Strong lean to the Hawks but their cover record is average this year.


Port Adelaide v GWS – Lean towards Giants on the back of their comfortable victory over Power earlier this year but they are yet to win from three appearance at the Adelaide Oval.


 


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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 17

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 20

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 20

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 20 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-10.5 Cowboys vs Bulldogs

-8.5 Broncos vs Panthers

-9.5 Raiders vs Warriors

-10.5 Titans vs Eels

-14.5 Storm vs Roosters

-28.5 Sharks vs Knights

+5.5 Dragons vs Tigers

+5.5 Rabbits vs Eagles

 


NRL Round 20 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 1 units Panthers H2H $3.75 William Hill

Bet 2 units Panthers +10.5 $1.90 TabSportsbet

Bet 2 units Titans -4.5 $1.87 Sportsbet / -5.5 $1.88 William Hill

Bet 3 units Tigers -4.0 $1.90 William Hill / CrownBet -4.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB

Bet 1 unit Sharks -23.5 $1.92 CrownBet / Ubet

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

Premiership Bet

My current ratings out of 10

9.55 Cowboys
9.40 Storm
9.25 Sharks
9.20 Broncos
8.90 Bulldogs
Daylight

I expect the top 3 are the only live chances, with significant risk against the Sharks. While on this wonderful winning roll and full of belief there has to be some risk against finals inexperience and more importantly in finals footy their want to continually offer dumb penalties and ill discipline. Storm have been building nicely, very solid, key experience and they lift for the big games (beat Cows in Brisbane, flogged Broncos, etc). But I keep coming back to the Cowboys, right now I think they are an approx $3.25 chance and we can get $5.00, clearly they have now been there done that but I believe they are a 10 to 20% better side this yr now that they have that belief, they amazingly have all but to a man the same side, they have depth, will finish top 4 (or top 2) and get the potential rails run through. I think $5.00 is about the top of the market and is likely to now keep firming into September, unscathed out of Origin I want to have a small long term interest with them.

I think the Broncos are long gone and would be very very surprised if they could resurrect their season. Halves, notably Hunt way out of form, bench depth very thin on quality, major left edge defensive issues. Bulldogs, Hasler has this magic through August and September most years, I don’t like their halves, but their best can compete, nice test in Townsville Thursday night.

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Cowboys, Broncos, Raiders, Titans, Storm, Sharks, Tigers, Eagles


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Cowboys vs Bulldogs

-10.5 Cowboys

Stats

It’s a Top 4 clash to kick off Round 20 when the Bulldogs travel to North Queensland to take on the Cowboys. The Bulldogs have won 6 of the last 9 clashes with the Cowboys, including 3 of the last 4 meetings played in Townsville, with the Cowboys only H2H win at the ground since 2007 coming from the most recent encounter. It’s the 1st time in more than 3 months that the Bulldogs have had to play a distant fly away match where they have struggled for wins in recent years, winning only half of their matches played outside of NSW since 2010 (15 from 30). They have won only 8 of their last 15 as a road dog and have opened at a H2H price of more than $2 for only the 4th time this season. Canterbury ranks 5th in attack, while the have the 4th best defensive record and their differential of 109 also ranks 4th . The Bulldogs have a 7-10 record ATS with a 5-4 cover record on the road, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 away from home when getting a start of more than a converted try. They are 10-7 Over in TMP’s with their last 7 all going Over and 5 of those 7 have topped 50. It’s now 15 weeks since the Bulldogs last trailed at half time and no side has scored more 1st half points than the Dogs. In 7 of their last 8 away games the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 8th minute, with the Bulldogs scoring the 1st try in 5 of those. The Cowboys are 1 of 2 sides that remain undefeated at home this season, winning 8 from 8 and they have also won 9 of their last 10 when starting as a favourite. They will be fresh off the break and have won 9 of their last 11 off a Bye, while they also have a key in with Michael Morgan set to return after missing their last 3 matches. The Cowboys rank 3rd in attack and 2nd in defence, while their differential of 173 ranks 3rd . North Queensland is 9-8 ATS, with a 5-3 cover record at home and they have covered in 8 of their last 11 when laying a start. In TMP’s they are 9-8 Under, with 6 of their last 8 totaling 38 or less. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in all 8 of their home games in 2016, while Gavin Cooper leads the way as the Cowboys as 1st try scorer, scoring the 1st try of the match on 4 occasions this season. A great way to start the Round and if history is anything to go by it shapes as a tight tussle with 8 of the previous 9 meetings having been decided by a margin of 1-12 points.

Preview

Looks a really good contest. Which ever way I dice the numbers I have the Cows with an approx 10 point handicap advantage here, but its a game best watched for reference and learning right at this stage. The Cowboys have 6 key players off the back of Origin, and one of the things that we may see through this and the next few weeks is a few of the contenders tapering their fitness work in prep for September, which can mean additional fitness loading and tired legs while they then adjust their run into mid August.

The Cows have a super home record and are shooting for a club record winning streak. Bulldogs have won their last 4 but have some question marks over some of that form, BUT Hasler is a master of setting his troops for these big games and they do have a good record in Townsville. Excellent contest in the middle, two big front rows, both have ball play on the edges, but the Cowboys have the brains and smarts in the halves and that should be the difference.

Cowboys to win, no interest, if I was doing anything maybe link them straight out to be winning.


Broncos vs Panthers

-8.5 Broncos

Stats

The only match of the Round featuring 2 last start winners sees the Brisbane Broncos face the Penrith Panthers at Suncorp Stadium in Friday Night Football. Home ground advantage has been beneficial when these sides have met recently with the home team winning 8 of the last 9 matches. The Panthers have won 3 of the last 4 clashes, while the Broncos have won 5 of the last 6 clashes played at Suncorp Stadium. It’s the 1st game back at Suncorp Stadium since Brisbane were embarrassed by the Storm 3 weeks ago in what was their biggest ever loss at the venue. The Broncos have won 6 of their 8 matches against sides currently sitting outside the 8 and they have also won 7 of 9 at Suncorp Stadium. They rank 6th in attack and 7th in defence, while their 99 point differential ranks 5th. Brisbane is 8-9 ATS but they have covered in 8 of their last 10 at Suncorp when laying a double digit start. They are 9-8 Under in TMP’s, while 4 of their last 5 have finished Over, with 3 of them topping 44. The Broncos have scored the 1st try of the match in 8 of their 9 games at Suncorp Stadium this season. Corey Oates is the Broncos leading try scorer with 12 and he has been the Broncos last try in his previous 3 matches against the Panthers. The Panthers remain out of the Top 8 in 9th spot and are 1 of 4 teams with 20 points in a mid-table log jam. They are on a 5 day turn around and have lost 9 of 14 since 2012 on a short back up. Penrith have lost 5 of 8 as the away side as well as losing 6 of 8 against teams currently in the Top 8. They rank 11th in defence, while both their attack and differential rank 10th. The Panthers are 8-9 ATS, with a 3-2 cover record as a road dog, but they have failed to cover in their 5 matches played interstate. They are 9-8 Under in TMP’s, with a 6-4 Under record away from Pepper Stadium. The Panthers have had 15 matches decided by 1-12 points, while the previous 3 clashes with the Broncos have been decided by 3 points or less. Josh Mansour has now scored 6 tries in his last 6 appearances for the Panthers and is their leading try scorer with 9. The home side has failed to cover in 11 of the last 12 matches with Matt Noyen as an assistant referee

Preview

I read somewhere yesterday someone saying after watching the Broncos win last week they were back!! Not sure what he was watching, as they are still a huge risk here and I’m staggered they are $1.26 favs. They were as scratchy as anything last week and were lucky to be running through a Rabbits list that was as thin as and who have been on a long losing streak of their own. They still have key outs, major problems on their left edge and are playing 5 youngsters who have not made an impact or indeed really come up at this level as expected. They have been nothing like the Broncos of this time last yr, and Bennett knows full well he really has his hands full turning this around.

Clearly the Panthers have also been scratchy, but I have a similar theory on them as with the Warriors, they don’t like playing with expectation or favourtism. Yes they also have some other issues, notably playing in and out of games (turning on and off), some key players out of position and their youth and inexperience, but they do have patches of brilliance and in managed and directed can turn a game on its head in minutes. They turned the Eagles game on its head, did something similar last Sunday after half time, they have that in them. Through recent weeks they have been poor, slow starters, in and out of games, lazy periods, but in each game they were expected to win, very warm favs yet clearly complacent. They have actually started favs and expected winners at their last 5 winning just 3. But now they are despised outsiders given little chance, but I think that’s the trick with them, unlike many other sides who are significant outsiders due to being legless we know what the Panthers have in them and I expect without that expectation they’re a good chance to aim up here and give this a shake.

I think the market has this priced way too far apart, on a false sense of the Broncos by name and reputation and not necessarily current form. I want to be with the plus start, but wait till Friday afternoon to bet, as I expect the Friday rush will push it further and we can take +12.0 or better.

The serious money keeps coming for the Panthers, line has moved from 11.5 to 8.5 on Pinnacle already and I would suggest will now keep firming elsewhere, lets take the 10.5, also a small interest at the H2H price which I think is way too long and offers some value in a game where I give the Panthers some significant hope of the upset.

Bet 1 units Panthers H2H $3.75 William Hill

Bet 2 units Panthers +10.5 $1.90 TabSportsbet


Raiders vs Warriors

-9.5 Raiders

Stats

The 2nd and final match of the Round featuring 2 Top 8 opponents sees the Raiders host the Warriors from GIO Stadium in the Nation’s Capital. The Raiders ended a 5 game losing run when they last met the Warriors and a win this week will be the 1st time since 2012 that Canberra has beaten the Warriors twice in a season. Only once since these sides last met in Round 11 have the Raiders tasted defeat, recording 6 wins from 7 matches, including their last 4 at home. The Raiders continue to hold down 5th spot on the ladder, they are ranked 7th in points conceded, while they rank 2nd in attack, averaging 25 points a game and this improves to almost 30 PPG when playing at home. They are the 2nd best cover team in the NRL behind the Titans, with an 11-6 record ATS, while they are 6-3 when covering at home. Canberra has the 2nd highest TMP average in the comp, producing a 12-5 Over result and a 7-2 Over record at home at an average of 50, while 6 of their last 7 have topped 44. No side has scored more 2nd half points than the Raiders and they haven’t been outscored in the 2nd half in their last 10 matches. The Raiders have scored the last try of the match in 4 of their last 5 at home. Jarrod Croker and Jordan Rapana are the leading try scorers for the Raiders, with each of them crossing on 11 occasions. Its back to back road games for the Warriors after losing to the Sea Eagles in Golden Point last week. They have now lost 4 of their last 5 away games to be 3 & 6 on the road season to date and while they have won their last 2 at the ground, wins in Canberra have also proven difficult, with just 3 wins in 20 years. The Warriors rank 7th in attack but are 12th defensively and are 1 of 2 sides in the Top 8 with a negative differential. They are 7-10 ATS, with a 4-5 cover record on the road and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 9 away games when getting a start. In TMP’s they are 10-7 Over and 6-3 Over as an away side, while their last 4 matches have all finished Under. Only 5 times this season have the Warriors led at half time and they have gone on to win 4 of those, while they have lost 9 of 11 when trailing at the break. Solomone Kata is the Warriors leading try scorer with 10, but he hasn’t scored a try in his last 4 matches.

Preview

Nice test for both sides. For the Warriors they face back to back distant road games and having to aim up post Origin which they have failed to do each of the last 4 years. The Raiders have been good at home winning 7 of last 9 but face some expectation here, sitting in the top 8 they are expected to win and need to do so to stay competitive.

The trick with this game is they are each likely to suck the other into playing up tempo, quick ruck speed, multiple off loads and ball movement and each run the risk of playing the game at hand and making multiple errors, both with the ball and defensively. Often it can turn into more of a game of touch footy than smart game plan.

I expect the Raiders win, and should cover the line, but they style of game lends itself to risk that I am happy to stay out of. It does look a points feast, but 48 is a decent number to chase and I think there are better betting opportunities elsewhere to work around this week.


Titans vs Eels

-10.5 Titans

Stats

Off field dramas continue to dominate the headlines for Parramatta who will again be without key play maker in Corey Norman when they travel to the glitter strip to take on the Titans. The Eels got the chocolates when they last met the Titans in Darwin to record just their 2nd win from the last 7 clashes with the Gold Coast side. Parramatta has lost 2 of their last 3 and with their finals hopes now gone, it might be a big ask to keep fronting up like they have been. They have conceded an average of 24 points a game from their last 3 matches, which is 10 points more than they had averaged in their 14 matches prior. They have lost 6 of their last 8 as a road dog, 5 of their last 6 matches played in Queensland and have covered a line in only 1 of those. The Eels are 11-6 ATS, including covering their last 5 straight, while they have a 6-2 cover record as an away side. They are 11-6 Under in TMP’s, with a 5-3 Under record on the road, while 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Titans have also finished Under. Bevan French has scored 9 tries from 6 appearances for the Eels and is now only 1 behind Semi Radradra as Parramatta’s leading try scorer. The Titans come into this match in 7th position, which is their highest position since Round 4. They rank 8th in both attack and defence, while their differential of -3 also ranks 8th . All but 1 of the Titans 8 wins have come against sides currently ranked in the bottom half of the ladder. The Titans are the Number 1 cover side in the NRL, with a 12-5 record ATS, while they are 5-3 at home. In TMP’s they are 9-8 in favour of the Overs, while 5 of their last 6 at home have all finished Under. A Titans try has been the 1st scoring play in 5 of their last 6 matches and they have also scored the 1st try in the last 5 clashes with the Eels. Nene Macdonald is the Titans leading try scorer with 8 and he has scored 6 of those in his last 4 matches.

Preview

Eels remain plucky but their season is now officially dead with them unable to make the semis, riddled with key outs and injuries and into a distance road game to the glitter strip. I have nothing but respect for their efforts through recent months but they have a long list of key outs and we now add Jennings to that, Foran, Norman, Radrada, Toutai, that’s a big chunk of combinations and class there. I think the Eels might drop their bundle soon now that the finals are out of reach, interstate road trips can catch many a side off guard.

Titans were good last week and even without Bird should be too strong at home. Their key combinations at 9, 7 and 6 are growing well, tehir style of looking to open things up and play some footy should suit, they are building nicely and while likely to be found out against the pointy end of the table this looks the right game and week to be with them again.

Bet 2 units Titans -4.5 $1.87 Sportsbet


Storm vs Roosters

-14.5 Storm

Stats

The Sydney Roosters travel to Melbourne where they will meet the Storm to close out Super Saturday. The Storm handed the Roosters their biggest ever defeat at Allianz Stadium when they last met in Round 14 to make it 3 wins from the last 4 clashes, and they have also won well 3 of the last 4 meetings played at AAMI Park. Melbourne is 2nd on the ladder and they continue to set the bench mark defensively, conceding 11.6 points per game, while they rank 4th in attack. Their differential of 220 is also the best in the NRL. They are unbeaten in their last 4 at home, to make it 7 wins from 8 matches at AAMI Park this season, while they have won 8 of 9 against a bottom 8 opponent, their only blemish was against the Dragons when they had a number of key outs. Melbourne is 9-8 ATS and is split evenly at home, producing a 4-4 result, while they have covered in 9 of their last 14 night matches at home when giving up a start. The Storm favours the Unders in TMP’s, producing a 12-5 result, while 7 of their last 9 night games at AAMI Park have also finished Under. In 4 of the previous 5 clashes with the Roosters the TMP’s haven’t finished higher than 38. It would appear that Suliasa Vunivalu has a mortgage as the top try scorer in the NRL, with 17 tries in just 11 games since making his debut in Round 7 and he scored both the 1st and last try of the match in the previous meeting with the Roosters. The Roosters have now lost 5 in a row and a loss this week will make it 6 consecutive losses for the 1st time since 2009. They have lost 7 of 8 on the road in 2016 and they are yet to defeat a side in the Top 8, losing 9 from 9. The Roosters rank 14th in both attack and defence, while their differential of -126 also ranks 14th. The Tri Colours are a poor 6-11 ATS, the equal worst cover record in the competition and have covered in only 2 of their 8 away games, while they have failed to cover in 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Storm. They are 12-5 Over in TMP’s (equal most with Canberra), with 6 of their last 7 decided that way, while they are 7-2 Over against the Top 8. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in their last 4 matches, while Latrell Mitchell has been the Roosters 1st try scorer on 5 occasions and he is the Roosters leading try scorer with 11.

Preview

I’m very weary of Storm games right now as I’m sure a) Bellamy will look to rest Smith and Cronk at some stage, and b) they are likely one of those teams in the middle of a fitness routine in prep for September.

The Roosters have now lost 5 straight, should well have won last Monday night and have their best player list. But unless the Storm have 2 key outs I can’t on paper get the handicap any shorter than 14.5, with the market at best 10.5.

This game also marks Jessie Bromwich’s 150 in the top grade, and I am yet to see any club or coach to every have such a record as Bellamy and the Storm in ensuring that they lift for major player milestone games.

Storm to be winning back at home, happy to stay out.


Sharks vs Knights

-28.5 Sharks

Stats

It’s last versus 1st when Knights travel to the Shire to take on the Sharks, Newcastle has lost 11 straight, while the Sharks have won 14 in a row. The Knights suffered their 2nd biggest loss in their history when they last met Cronulla when they went down 62-0. Newcastle has won 4 of the last 5 clashes at Shark Park but they have opened at the longest price of any side in almost 2 years. The Knights are anchored at the bottom of the ladder and are destined to finish there, they rank 16th in for and against and have the worst differential by more than 200 points. They have conceded 20 points or more in their last 11 matches and only twice this season have they posted a score of more than 18. The Knights are 7-10 ATS and have covered in only 4 of 11 when getting a double digit start. They are 10-7 Over in TMP’s, with 4 of their last 5 totaling 48 or more. Newcastle has conceded the 1st try of the match in 8 of their last 9 and in 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Sharks and last week they became the 1st side to concede 100 tries for the season. The Sharks continue to break and set records as they aim for 15 consecutive victories. They are unbeaten at home, winning 9 from 9, with 8 of those wins coming by a margin of 1-12 points. Cronulla has won the last 3 matches against the Knights, scoring 114 points, while conceding just 34. They are 11-6 ATS, with a 4-5 cover record at home, while they have covered in their last 3 against Newcastle. The Sharks are 9-8 Under in TMP’s, with a 6-3 Under record at home, while 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Knights have finished Over. Valentine Holmes (13) and Sosaia Feki (12) have combined to score more than a third of the Sharks tries this season and Holmes bagged 4 tries in the last meeting with the Knights.

Preview


Dragons vs Tigers

+5.5 Dragons

Stats

A crucial game for both the Dragons and Tigers to keep their finals hopes alive when they clash at ANZ Stadium. The Dragons have won 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Tigers, all of which were played at this week’s venue. The half time leader has won the last 6 encounters and that could be pivotal as neither one of these sides has overcome a half time deficit this season, with the Dragons losing 9 from 9 and the Tigers 6 from 6. The Dragons are 10th on the ladder and sit 9th in the defensive standings, while they have the 2nd worst attack in the NRL, averaging 13.3 points a game and no side has scored fewer 2nd half points than the Dragons who have outscored their opponent in the 2nd half just once all season. They have lost 5 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium and 4 of their last 5 away from their suburban home grounds, while they have conceded 30+ points in their last 4 losses. The Dragons are 8-9 ATS and have covered in only 1 of their last 5 at ANZ Stadium, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 7 when getting at start of 4.5 points or more. They are 11-6 Under in TMP’s but 4 of their last 5 have finished Over as have 4 of their last 5 at ANZ Stadium. The Dragons have conceded half of their 64 tries this season down their right edge in defence. Kurt Mann has scored 6 tries in just 6 appearances for the Dragons, yet he is their leading try scorer. The Tigers will be fresh off the Bye and have named one of their strongest line ups of the season. They have won 4 of their last 7 and 4 of their last 5 against sides in the bottom half of the ladder. They sit just behind the Dragons in 11th spot and are 9th in attack, while they have the 2nd worst defensive record in the comp, conceding an average of 25.7 points a game. The Tigers are 9-8 ATS and have covered in 4 of their last 5 at ANZ Stadium, but they have a poor 3-12 cover record since 2014 as a favourite. They are 11-6 Over in TMP’s, including their last 5 straight, while their last 5 at ANZ Stadium have all topped 40 at an average of 50. In 4 of the last 5 clashes between these 2 sides the TMP’s have also topped 40, while matches refereed by Ashley Klein are in favour of the Overs, producing a 14-5 result season to date, including the last 8 straight. James Tedesco is the Tigers leading try scorer with 11 and on 3 occasions each, he has been both the Tigers 1st try scorer or their last try scorer.

Preview

Seems a very modest position to oppose the Dragons, they have had 30 odd points put through them at 3 of their last 4 starts against decent opponents, have been horrible at their last two losses and now chose to play at a neutral ground (Homebush). Tigers come off a bye break, will get all key players back from Origin, stretched the Bulldogs when under strength last start and come through credible form / efforts at their prior three including good wins over Panthers and Rabbits. Lot more upside and positive play in the Tigers right now while Dragons just look on a slide and in free-fall and I want to stay against them.


Rabbits vs Eagles

+5.5 Rabbits

Stats

Two arch rivals close out Round 20 when the Rabbitohs and Sea Eagles clash at Allianz Stadium in Monday Night Football. Both sides will be desperate for a win to keep their slim finals hopes alive but regardless of who wins, it’s highly unlikely that we will see either of these teams in September. The Rabbitohs have won 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Sea Eagles, including their last meeting at Allianz Stadium when the Bunnies started their march to Grand Final glory in 2014. That is now a distant memory for Souths who have now lost 6 in a row, 10 of their last 12 and have conceded 20 points or more in their last 11 straight. They have trailed at half time in 11 of their last 12 scoring an average of just 5 1st half points during that time and only in 1 of those have they been able to overcome the deficit to win. They have slumped to 13th spot on the ladder, are 13th in defence, while their attack and differential both rank 12th. They are the equal worst cover team in the competition, producing a 6-11 record ATS and have covered in only 2 of 8 when getting a start. In TMP’s they are 11-6 Over, with 8 of their last 9 totaling 40 or more, while 6 of their last 7 at Allianz Stadium have also topped 40. Manly has recorded back to back wins and will be looking to make it 3 straight for the 1st time this season. They have been Monday night regulars in 2016, with this being their 7th game of MNF and they have been a 50/50 proposition in the Monday fixture, winning 3 of 6. The Sea Eagles are currently 12th and are ranked 13th in attack, while both their defence and differential rank 11th. They are 7-10 ATS and have covered in their last 3, while they have covered in 3 of their last 4 when laying a start. Since 2015 road favourites in MNF have a 14-8 record ATS when laying a single figure start. In TMP’s Manly are 9-8 in favour of the Under, while 5 of the last 6 (& 8 of the last 10) clashes with the Rabbitohs have also finished Under, with an average of 35.

Preview


Eagles keep improving and their efforts through their last 3 outings has merit, stretching the Cowboys then wins over the Dragons and Warriors (although either not the strongest form reference). What I think has been apparent is a focused work ethic and a team list pulling together, positive signs that Barrett has support and has everyone on the same page of  effort and hard work. Defensively they have also been strong.

Rabbits have been a mess for many weeks now losing their last 6, losing players off their list and having key outs. Defensively they keep leaking near 30 points most weeks at present, had they played someone in much stronger current form last week as opposed to the Broncos they would have been belted by 50.

I like what the Eagles are doing through recent weeks, and they still have a remote chance of making the finals and so have something to play for. Barrett looks to have also instilled some attitude and work ethic into them across the last 6 weeks and that should be the edge here. I like them to win, at this neutral ground I think the handicap should be something like 6, I’m happy to leave the game alone as a betting interest but if looking for a play then certainly Eagles -2.5 is the option.


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 19 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+2.5 Dragons vs Titans

+4.5 Eagles vs Warriors

+7.5 Rabbits vs Broncos

+12.5 Knights vs Storm

-7.5 Panthers vs Eels

+5.5 Roosters vs Sharks


NRL Round 19 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Titans -1.5 $1.91 Ubet / William Hill / Luxbet

Bet 2 units Rabbits-Broncos over 39.5 $1.90 Luxbet / 40.5 $1.90 Tab Sportsbet

Bet 3 units Knights +18.5 $1.91 William Hill BB

 

Notes

Another post Origin tricky round and only 6 games. I was keen on the Overs in the Eagles-Warriors game in Perth but for the forecast of plenty of rain. Broncos should win but have only done so at 2 of their last 8, are on the road, have key Origin backups, the game and line has risk. Leave me out of the Panthers, consistent under performer and I’m still to finalise thoughts and position for the Monday night game.

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Titans, Warriors, Broncos, Storm, Panthers, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Dragons vs Titans

+2.5 Dragons

Stats

Friday Night Football kicks off Round 19 when the Dragons host the Titans from Kogorah Oval. It’s the 1st of 4 matches in the Round featuring 2 sides that have had the week off and both sides will be looking to make a charge to secure a Top 8 spot. Recent meetings have been tight and low scoring affairs, with 5 of the last 6 clashes decided by a margin of 1-12, while 5 of the last 6 clashes have finished Unders in TMP’s. The Dragons find themselves in the Top 8 for only the 2nd time this season with a 50/50 win loss record and they will need to win at least half of their remaining games if they are to be any chance of playing Finals Footy. They have won 5 of their last 6 at the ground and have covered a line in 5 of those. The Dragons are ranked 8th in defence and 14th in attack, scoring an average of 13 points a game. They are split evenly ATS with an 8-8 record, while they are 5-2 when covering as the home side and have covered in 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Titans. In TMP’s they are 11-5 in favour of the Under and have a 5-1 Under record in night matches at the ground since 2014, while 5 of the previous 6 meetings with the Titans have also finished Under. A Dragons try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 6 clashes with the Titans, while the Titans have scored the last try of the match in the last 8 encounters. The Titans had lost 3 of 4 heading into the break and their post Bye record is a poor won, with just 3 wins from 13 matches since 2010. They are currently 10th on the ladder and are ranked 9th in both attack and defence and will play 6 of their remaining 8 games against sides who have recorded more wins than they have. The Titans are 11-5 ATS and are a perfect 6 from 6 when covering as a road dog. They are split evenly in TMP’s with an 8-8 result, while they are 9-4 Under in night matches away from home. Only once from the last 12 meetings have the Titans led the Dragons at half time and the Titans have also led at the break just once in their 8 previous away games. In 6 of the last 8 meetings, the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 7th minute. The home side has failed to cover in 10 of the last 11 matches with Matt Noyen as an assistant referee.

Preview

On the back of Titans naming one of their strongest line ups for some time and Dragons with two key late outs the visitors have been heavily backed with the market tipping full circle in just a few days.

The Dragons come off a rank offering vs Eagles, but as discussed prior to that game their prior form was equally thin and poor. They have had a bye break but I have little confidence in their coach let alone their offering, and ranked 14th in attack in this current comp they rarely have points in them and if chasing such here which is likely then they will have some problems. They do have the advantage of being at home and a recent winning record here, but again I’m not so sure of some of the depth behind that current record. Which they sit in 8th spot at present for mine this is by default and I am sure we will see them in free fall into the weeks ahead and they slide to their true position toward the bottom four.

The Titans as we know have an excellent record on the road and at the line, they are also the #1 cover the line team this season to date. I like the fact that they would have had a full week prep into this game with no disruption, full list, into a key game that they need to win to remain in finals contention. The way to play the Dragons as well executed by the Eagles last game was back through the middle with every opportunity, and where possible couple with this off load plays to break them up, then pick the right plays to spread to an edge. Also, playing up tempo with some quick play the balls (and these off loads) rattles their defensive set up as the Dragons like to play a few defenders into their tackling and try and slow things down more than many.

A game of two contrasting styles. Dragons will want to arm wrestle their way through a tough tight 80 minutes, Titans will be looking to break things open, play some footy, and shoot from in front. I like the Titans approach, I also like the fact that more often than not they are very well prepared, with an uninterrupted week and full list they get their chance to win here.

Bet 2 units Titans -1.5 $1.91 Ubet / William Hill / Luxbet


Eagles vs Warriors

+4.5 Eagles

Stats

A home game for Manly but both they and the Warriors will travel to Perth for their 2nd ever clash in the West and their 1st ever meeting at NIB Stadium. The Sea Eagles have a dominant recent record over the Warriors, recording 10 wins from the last 11 clashes, but have opened as underdogs for this encounter. It’s the final game of the season that the Sea Eagles will have to leave Sydney and they have lost their last 3 when travelling interstate. They broke a 7 game losing streak prior to the week off, but they have lost 6 of their last 8 when coming out of the Bye. Manly are 6-10 ATS, but have covered in their last 4 against the Warriors. In TMP’s they have an 8-8 record, while 7 of the last 11 clashes with the Warriors have finished Under, with an average of 38. A Sea Eagles try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 meetings and Manly has also scored the last try of the match in 7 of the last 8 clashes. The Warriors had won 4 of 5 heading into their Bye and the week off has served them well in recent seasons as they have won their last 9 matches when coming off a Bye. They have won their last 5 day time matches and covered the line in all of them, but they will need to overcome a poor record on the road though, winning only 2 of their last 11 matches played on Aussie soil. The Warriors are 7-9 ATS and have covered in 6 of their last 7 away games as a road favourite. They are 10-6 Over in TMP’s and in their last 5 matches as a road favourite, the TMP’s have totaled 44 or more with an average of 56.

Preview

Numerous key outs for both teams then long travel path to play in Perth.

After a long losing run the Eagles improved through the Cowboys then smacked the Dragons, and after the Titan toweling up of them (Dragons) last night that formline is also questionable. The Eagles up front 8 then halves look ok, but their three quarters and attack penetration looks an issue.

Warriors have won 4 of their last 5, the loss a close encounter with Sharks in Sydney, but this positive run is typical of their mid season fortunes through this Origin period, but they look to get another winnable game. They also have a good record when fresh off a bye, are far more accustomed to distant travel and have a good record in Perth.

Like the Warriors to win but the forecast rain throws numerous play options into doubt. An inch of rain is forecast for late arvo, should some of this come early then a 4 point line or the total points become guess work, happy to pass.


Rabbits vs Broncos

+7.5 Rabbits

Stats

The 2nd and final match on Super Saturday sees 2 sides in desperate need of a win when the Rabbitohs host the Broncos at ANZ Stadium. Wins have been few and far between in recent times for both sides, with just 1 win between them from their last 10 matches combined. Wins have been shared equally since 2011, with both sides securing 5 victories each, while the Broncos have recorded comprehensive wins in the 2 most recent encounters. In 6 of the last 7 clashes between the Rabbitohs and Broncos the winning margin has been by 13+, while 4 of the last 5 encounters have topped 42 points. Souths come into this match off the back of 5 straight losses to be looking down the barrel at 6 consecutive defeats in a season for the 1st time since 2008. They are now in 12th spot on the ladder to rank 11th in attack and 13th in defence, conceding 24 points a game and they haven’t been in the Top 8 since Round 7. They have trailed at half time in 10 of their last 11, scoring an average of just 5 1st half points during that time and only in 1 of those have they been able to overcome the deficit to win. They are 6-10 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 5 as a home underdog. In TMP’s they are 11-5 Over, with 7 of their last 8 topping 42, while 7 of their last 8 at ANZ Stadium have also finished Over and totaled 42 or more. Like the Rabbitohs, the Broncos too have been on a downward spiral and have dropped from 1st to 6th over the last 8 weeks. They have lost 5 of their last 6 and 5 of their last 6 played away from Suncorp Stadium, as well as having a poor record at ANZ Stadium, with just 2 wins from their last 8 games at the ground. After sitting 1st and 2 nd in defence and attack rankings in Round 8, Brisbane are now ranked 5th and 6th and have conceded an average of 30 points a game since Round 10. The Broncos are 7-9 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 5 and in 5 of their last 6 as a road favourite. In TMP’s they are split 8-8, with their last 4 finishing Over and in 3 of those 4 the total has been 54. Brisbane has scored the 1st points of the match in 13 of their 16 matches, while the Rabbitohs have conceded 1st points in 8 of their last 11. In the Broncos last 10 matches the 1st try of the match hasn’t been scored until after the 7th minute and this has also been the case in the Rabbitohs last 5.

Preview

Two sides spinning in circles looking for a win and some form. It’s more a choice of who doesn’t quite look the worse of the two than it is a form line to reference. The Rabbits have lost 9 of their last 11 games, a horrendous run, while the Broncos have lost 6 of their last 8, it’s not a pretty scenario. The Rabbits have through recent days sacked two top grade players (and at least we know they stand for something unlike a few other clubs), lose Inglis and have some doubts over Reynolds (although expected to play). The Broncos lose Parker but importantly get their other Origin players back who’ll they’ll desperately need here, especially on their weakened left edge.

Given the weakened and limping list that the Rabbits are playing with here the Broncos get their chance to break through and win. But the option that does look to stand out here is the total game points over, which by my model I rate a 80% chance. The Rabbits have been over at 11 of their last 16 games, the Broncos over at the last 4 outings, and 4 of the last 5 H2H games have been over three of which have seen scores near 60, I think that’s the right way to play this.

Bet 2 units Rabbits vs Broncos over 39.5 $1.90 Luxbet / 40.5 $1.90 Tab Sportsbet


Knights vs Storm

+12.5 Knights

Stats

Sunday football kicks off in the Hunter in what shapes as a total mismatch when the Wooden Spoon favourites Newcastle take on Premiership favourites, the Melbourne Storm. The Knights hold a 10-5 all time advantage over the Storm at Hunter Stadium but wins have been shared equally at the ground since 2005, with both sides recording 4 wins each. The majority of recent meetings have been closely fought contests, with 7 of the last 9 clashes having been decided by a margin of 1-12 points and 4 of the last 7 decided by 4 points or less. Newcastle has lost 10 in a row and their last 5 at home, conceding an average of almost 38 points a game and remain winless against a current Top 8 opponent. They have been anchored at the bottom of the ladder for the last 10 weeks and are ranked 16th in both attack and defence. Newcastle is 6-10 ATS with an 8-10 cover record since 2014 when getting a double digit start, which improves to 4-2 when those matches have been played at home. They are 10-6 Over in TMP’s, with a 6-1 Over record against the Top 8 at an average of 51. The Knights have scored the 1st try of the match in 6 of the previous 7 meetings with the Storm, but they have conceded the 1 st try in 6 of 7 at home this season. Melbourne has won 9 of their last 10 which has seen them sit no lower than 3rd on the ladder during that period. They are ranked 5th in attack and have the best defensive record in the NRL, conceding just 11 points a game. They have won 5 of their last 6 on the road and remain unbeaten against sides in the bottom half of the ladder, winning 8 from 8. The Storm is 9-7 ATS with a 5-3 cover record on the road, while they have a 5-7 record since 2014 when giving up a double digit start. They are 11-5 Under in TMP’s, with a 6-2 Under record away from home. Away teams laying a double digit start at the line have won 11 straight dating back to 2014. Suliasa Vunivalu has scored 16 tries in 10 appearances for Melbourne since making his debut in Round 7, bagging 5 doubles and 2 hat tricks.

Preview

Think this is the right week to take the risk of being with the Knights at home with a long line start.

One thing we have discussed during this season with the Knights has been the likelihood of them saving / playing their best when at home, and picking the right occasions when that looked likely. Until recent weeks they have gone through a terrible run of injury outs which with their thin and ordinary depth has left them venerable to some touch ups, but through the last few weeks this has changed with the key returns of Rochow and Saifiti last game and now here a further 4 key ins with Mullen, Pat Mata’uti, Pauli Pauli and Paea, plus they get Gagai back from Origin – it’s their strongest line up for quite some weeks.

Add then to this the fact that the Knights like playing the Storm and they are one team they consistently seem to aim up against, they have a long term 10-5 win record over the Storm in Newcastle plus they have also won 2 of the past 3 H2H (and should have won the latest clash in Melbourne earlier this season when they led right to the death). They are also well suited with their favoured weekend home game time of 2pm Sunday where they will have strong home support.

Clearly the Storm are top of table for a reason and at full strength with no issues they can threaten anyone at present. But into this game they will be without key forwards Mclean, Glasby and Asofa-Solomona, still have doubts over Harris and Munster and the possibility that Bellamy may rest Smith or Cronk at some stage (this week or at game in the weeks ahead).

While I expect the Storm win I do think their are multiple reasons to suggest a 20 point line is way too generous and a nice betting proposition. Knights at home, off bye freshen up, favoured home game time slot, excellent H2H record vs this opponent and importantly their strongest team list line up for months. This is also the longest line start they have received at home this season, I have it much shorter at something like 12.5 and for mine its the right time to be with it.

Bet 3 units Knights +18.5 $1.91 William Hill BB


Panthers vs Eels

-7.5 Panthers

Stats

Just another normal week for Parramatta who must now have the full boxed set when it comes to high drama and controversy, whether they can put that aside will have a major impact on the outcome of this week’s result when they travel to Pepper Stadium to take on the out of form Panthers. There hasn’t been much between these 2 sides over the years, with the Eels holding a slight advantage all time, while the last 10 matches played at Pepper Stadium have been split evenly since 2006. Parramatta had won 3 of the previous 4 before the Panthers grabbed a last minute victory when they last met in Round 5. The Eels have finally been stripped of their 12 competition points and as a result they are now in 14th spot, they are ranked 12th in attack but are equal 4th in defence (unadjusted). They have won 5 from 7 on the road this season, but have lost 7 of their last 10 as a road dog. Parramatta is 10-6 ATS and they have covered in 5 of 7 on the road, while the away teams have covered in 8 of the last 9 matches when Ben Cummins has been in charge. The Eels are 10-6 Under in TMP’s, while their last 3 have all finished Over. They have conceded just 2 tries through their middle 3rd this season (ranked 1st), compared to 15 at the same time last year. Bevan French has scored 7 tries in his 5 appearances for Parramatta since his debut in Round 12. The Panthers have now lost 4 of their last 6 and have conceded 24 points or more in all 6 matches. They are at home for the 2nd week in a row, but have won only 2 of 6 at Pepper Stadium this season. Penrith have now dropped to 10th on the ladder and are also ranked 10th in both attack and defence. They are split 8-8 ATS, with a 4-5 cover record at home and have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 when giving up a start. Their TMP record is also split 8-8 with 5 of their last 7 topping 48, while 7 of the last 8 clashes with the Eels at Pepper Stadium have topped 44. A Panthers try has been the 1st scoring play in 6 of the last 7 meetings with Parramatta at Pepper Stadium. Josh Mansour is the Panthers leading try scorer with 8 and 5 of those have come from his last 5 appearances.

Preview

Another game that has whiskers on it. The Eels lose Norman and Radradra and have makeshift combinations right across their back 7, especially in their halves. As again shown last week Arthur seems to keep finding a way to get them up and competing.

Less said on the Panthers the better. They were pathetic last week when gifted an opportunity to beat a weakened opponent at home, and as I outlined then Griffin has no idea how to coach attack. Yet they are again dished up as warm favs and a 12 pt line, give me a break. They get Moylan back but I couldn’t touch them with stolen money.

Panthers at home, but certainly a watch game.


Roosters vs Sharks

+5.5 Roosters

Stats

The Roosters will be looking to avoid 5 consecutive defeats for the 2nd time this season when they host the Sharks at Allianz Stadium in Monday Night Football. The numbers are stacked against the Roosters who have defeated Cronulla just 3 times in the last 11 meetings dating back to 2006, while the Sharks are chasing their 14th straight victory. The Tri-Colours have lost 6 of their last 7 and are yet to defeat a Top 8 opponent, losing 8 from 8. For the 10th week in a row the Roosters are anchored in 15th place, while their differential of -114 ranks 14th, as does both their attack and defence rankings. They are 6-10 ATS with a 2-4 cover record as a home underdog, while they have lost 6 from 6 as outsiders at home. The Roosters are 11-5 Over in TMP’s, with a 5-1 Over record at home when getting a start, while 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Sharks at Allianz Stadium have all gone Over. Matches refereed by Ashley Klein have also favoured the Overs, producing a 13-5 result season to date, including the last 7 straight. Home underdogs are 3-1 ATS in 2016 and 9-13 since 2014, while they are 3-5 over the same period when getting 6 or more points start. The Sharks continue to lead the competition with 13 straight wins and are looking to become just the 3rd side in more than 20 years to win 14 in a row. They rank 3rd in attack and have the 2nd best defensive record, conceding less than 16 points a game. Cronulla are 10-6 ATS but have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 when giving up a start of 6 or more, but have covered in the last 5 clashes with the Roosters. They are 9-7 Under in TMP’s, while 4 of their last 5 on the road have finished Over. Ben Barba has been the Sharks 1st try scorer on 5 occasions this year, while Valentine Holmes is their leading try scorer with 12. The Roosters have lost their 3 previous games of MNF and failed to cover in all of them, while the Sharks have won their 3 Monday night games in 2016 and have covered in all of them. Only 1 of the previous 8 meetings between these sides has been decided by a margin of more than 12 points.

Preview

Tricky game. Roosters have been good in patches through recent weeks but they keep promising something but can’t run out a strong 80 minutes and win. They do have their best line up for some time here and play at home, which is normally an advantage to them. Off a losing streak they will be keen to break through, but this is not an easy assignment.

Sharks have been very good, clearly won 13 straight and would have to be buoyed by their quality underdog win at Penrith last weekend when without all of their origin players. They get all but Fifita back and those players will have had a nice break since mid last week. Teams that are on strong winning runs breed confidence and belief and become hard to beat, even on an off day. The Sharks have attack options and seem to lift when required.

The Roosters have been heavily backed through the last two days with the line shortening from 6.5 to 4.5. I don’t want to play either way, I have tipped the Sharks but a tight close affair looks likely.

If you are looking for a betting interest to watch with the game then the Tri Bet either team to win by under 6.5 points looks the best play ($2.95 Sportsbet), which positions you for either team to win by a short margin up to 6.5 points.



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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 16

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 16

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 16

 

Bet 3 units Adelaide-Collingwood under 188.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB

Bet 2 units St Kilda-Melbourne under 189.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Sydney, Geelong, Richmond, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, West Coast, St Kilda, GWS


Game Previews

 

Adelaide v Collingwood

Collingwood have a strong long term under record going under in 18 of their last 24 interstate and in 35 of their last 49 at night. While Adelaide have been a potent scoring team this season, only one of their last five matches have yielded over the 188.5 line available. Furthermore, the last three head to head clashes have yielded 153, 180 and 131 points. Neither team has had an ideal lead up to this match with Adelaide off a six day back up and Collingwood on a second consecutive interstate trip will slightly reduce the probability of a run and gun shootout.

Bet 3 units Adelaide-Collingwood under 188.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB


St Kilda v Melbourne

Saints have won 13 straight against Melbourne who have lost 23 of their last 24 at Etihad. Demons return from a long interstate trip while the Saints back up from their last start win at the same venue. Strong lean towards the Saints covering however my main interest is in the under. Melbourne return from a low scoring Darwin match and four of their last five matches have yielded under the line set for this match. Likewise, four of the last five head to head clashes have gone under the line set for this match.

Bet 2 units St Kilda-Melbourne under 189.5 $1.90 Sportsbet


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Sydney v Hawthorn – Lean towards a tight game and the under here with the Swans going under in 10 of 15 matches this year and 17 of their past 34 night matches. Two of the last three head to head clashes have also gone under. The market has moved 5-6 points towards the under since Tuesday morning.


Fremantle v Geelong – Freo have only covered 6 of their last 23 off a six day break. Lean towards the Cats.


Richmond v Essendon – The Dons have gone under the total match score line in 23 of their last 34 at the MCG and in 17 of their last 25 off a six day break. Further, the last five clashes head to head have gone under. However, this Dons outfit has been leaking points in the last month with their last four games yielding 207, 182, 207 and 194 points.


North Melbourne v Port Adelaide  – Port have gone over in 10 of their last 11 at Etihad. However, this is offset by the Kangas going under in 9 of their last 10 games.


Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast – Dogs have won this regular Cairns clash on each of the last two occasions. Dogs have improved when travelling interstate this year, winning their last two trips to Sydney and Port Adelaide but the line is about right.


Carlton v West Coast – Blues have covered the line in 19 of their last 28 day games. However this is offset by the Eagles covering in 15 of their last 20 as a 30.5+ favourite. Lean towards the Eagles nonetheless as the Blues look like going into freefall.


Brisbane v GWS – The Lions have gone over in a league high 11 of 15 games this season and can rack points at the Gabba while GWS have the second best scoring average in the league. However, the forecast at present is for possible rain. We will be monitoring the forecast in the meantime.


 

 


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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 16

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 3 Preview

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 3 Preview

 

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2013-17: Profit +104.53 units | 321 winners / 589 bets | strike rate 54.5%


 

Origin 2016 – Game 3


 

Origin 2016 – Game 3 Recommended Bets

 

QLD $2.05

Total Points Over 36.5 $1.90

Anytime Try Scorer: Gavin Cooper $4.50

Man of the Match: Jonathon Thurston $8.00

The above bets are the favoured bet types MrG has recommended for this game.

 

NSW vs QLD

Sydney

 

Preview

QLD lead the series 2-0

Of the last 7 dead rubber games on 4 occasions the side leading 2-0 have gone on to win the series as a clean sweep (3-0)

The last 3 times NSW have been up against it (down 2-0) into a dead rubber game at home they have lost all 3

So lets just recap. QLD have now won 10 of the last 11 series. But, they are beatable, and have been in my opinion through recent years. After winning the series 3 years ago NSW had enough ball to win two games in Game 1 2015 yet couldn’t win; then won Game 2 yet were then soundly flogged (52-6) in the series decider Game 3. This year NSW (at home) in Game 1 once again had enough ball to win two games on one night yet could only score one try and lost (6-4); lost Game 2 (26-16) and now face a dead rubber game back at home.

Through the last 4 years under Daley as coach NSW have averaged approx. 10 points in attack, and consistently shown an obsession for a bash and barge, defensive and negative approach. We don’t have to be major students of the game to understand that scoring around 10 points each contest ain’t going to win you many at this level.

The great Choppy Close made a wonderful point in a radio interview a few weeks ago about NSW, they’ve been obsessed through recent years with how to shut QLD down not how to play their own game, and importantly pick and play to some strengths. Summed it up beautifully!

Do you see a pattern developing here?

And please don’t give me that line that this QLD side are so good, and such a champion team, and blah blah blah. They have been, an outstanding team, for many years, but they have been very beatable through the last 4 to 5 years, the problem for NSW has been direction, plan and selection.

Now initially I think the NSW team changes are positive. Tedesco, Jack Bird, Graham and Moylan are the way of the future for NSW. Tedesco and Bird reek class, especially the former who is just an attacking genius with 11 tries, 11 try assists and some 80 tackle breaks already season to date – he was an absolute must. Finally Graham has been recognised, and will join Frizelle who was a stand out as best player for NSW in game 2 (on debut). But if we dig a little deeper they are still playing with 5 front rowers (for goodness sake why), a make shift 7, make shift 6 and scattered across their backs list 3 centres and 3 fullbacks. Still the reliance on 5 middle forwards, key attacking / backs playing out of tehir accustomed positions and from latest reports Moylan to start at #6 a role he is yet to accomplish himself at at club level yet now after a few days in camp (and after being dropped) he’ll now start in a key play making role.

NSW can win, and they have a dead rubber event that should be in their favour. But they still have lots of ifs and buts, key ifs and buts about their game plan and combinations that worry me, and more often than not major ifs and buts that doesn’t work at this level.

QLD, well I can’t tell you anything you don’t already know. They are winners, they win at counting sheep in their sleep. Players like Smith, Thurston, Cronk and co just seem to eat this stuff for breakfast (or when allowed to). Watching them through the last 12 months it has almost looked like they have known what NSW were going to throw at them and just stood back like the prized fighter and take a few shots and almost laughed is that all you have got. NSW haven’t asked questions of them which has allowed them to just roll with the game, and step up when they had a half chance, or when it mattered.

If NSW chose to play up tempo (quick play the balls, play direct off #9, ball play off their back row and engage the #1) they have points, they have advantage and they can win. But if Daley is going to use 5 big forwards then this is going to slow them down. The next question is how do the combinations work across the back 7. If they fire they have skill and points, but it’s a major question. But I have little confidence that NSW can get this right.

What’s that old line about poking a champion in the eye? I don’t think this QLD team is finished yet. They know how to step up when it matters, and this game will still matter to them. I expect they’ll clearly target the inexperience of the halves combination, pepper Moylan and once again work over NSW’s right edge defence. In Game 2 they also made some smart unexpected raids at NSW’s left edge as well (multiple tries) which I’m sure we’ll see again. I also expect Thurston leads the way here, he has been near best in each of the opening two games, in quality club form and makes a habit of playing blinders on this stage.

For mine QLD 28-18


 


 

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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 3 Preview

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 18 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-1.5 Eels vs Roosters

-13.5 Bulldogs vs Tigers

-4.5 Panthers vs Sharks

-12.5 Raiders vs Cowboys


NRL Round 18 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Bulldogs -8.5 $1.87 Sportsbet

Bet 1 unit Panthers -2.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet

Bet 3 units Raiders -8.0 $1.88 Crownbet / -8.5 $1.87 William Hill BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Eels, Bulldogs, Panthers, Raiders, QLD


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Eels vs Roosters

-1.5 Eels

Stats

Round 18 kicks off with 2 last start losers when the Parramatta Eels play host to the Sydney Roosters from Pirtek Stadium. The Roosters have won 7 of the last 9 clashes with the Eels, including 3 of the previous 5 meetings at Pirtek Stadium, but are coming into this match off the back of 3 straight losses. They have lost 6 from 7 on the road this season and have lost all of their previous 7 matches against sides currently in the Top 8. They are 6-9 ATS, with a 2-5 covering record on the road, while they are 1-4 on the road since 2014 when getting a start of 2.5 or less. The Roosters continue to be an Overs side and are now 10-5 in favour of the Over, while 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Eels have totaled 42 or more, with an average of 50. It’s the 1st game at Pirtek Stadium in 7 weeks for the Eels who have lost 4 from 6 this season at their true home venue, as well as losing 11 of their last 14 long term. Parramatta has also lost 6 of their last 7 when starting as a home favourite. They have however, won 5 from 7 this season against sides currently ranked in the bottom half of the ladder. The Eels are 9-6 ATS but have a poor 2-6 covering record when giving up a start at home. They are 10-5 Under in TMP’s with a 9-5 Under record as a home favourite since 2014. The Eels have conceded the 1 st try of the match in 7 of their last 9 at Pirtek Stadium and in 3 of the last 5 against the Roosters. In the last 10 meetings, the Roosters have scored more than twice that of the Eels.

Preview

Tricky game, added to with some ins and outs. New purchase Robson will help direct things for Eels, and allows Norman to get on with his job and Takairangi to play where best suited on the right edge; they also get Mannah back in the forwards. Cordner a key in for Roosters on their left edge while they lose Ferguson and Gurrea to Origin..

Eels have a poor recent record vs Roosters over recent years losing 7 of their last 9 H2H, but that is also in the context of each of these two sides having been at opposite ends of teh table through the last 3 yrs, where as that has not been the case this season with the Eels on 9 wins compared to the Roosters 3. One of the things that stood our with Arthur in the last few months of last season when the Eels were out of contention was his ability to get his guys up and focused on playing well (and winning) when it still didn’t matter for points / table. Now that the expectation of having to win just about every game to make the finals has evaporated for this season he again has them doing the same. In their last 3 outings they’ve beaten the Titans, the Rabbits and then led, stretched and should near have won last week vs Sharks at Shark Park, a fair form line.

Roosters clearly are also a show, possibly some of their best form last week but once again they let it slip, and losing has become a norm. They can win, its that sort of match up, but they are hard to trust, especially on the road (losing 6 of last 7).

With the Eels here but not a game I would touch.


Bulldogs vs Tigers

-13.5 Bulldogs

Stats

The Bulldogs and Tigers clash at ANZ Stadium for the 2nd time this season in the only Saturday match of the Round. The Dogs have opened as heavy favourites and are at their shortest price since Round 10, which was also against the Tigers. The Bulldogs have won 8 of their last 10 meetings with the Tigers, including a 32 point thumping when they last met. Both sides have the week off following this match and both sides have had contrasting fortunes leading into a break, with the Bulldogs winning their last 5 matches heading into a Bye, while the Tigers have lost 5 of their last 6 prior to the week off. The Dogs have now moved into the Top 4 for the 1 st time since Round 4 after recording 3 consecutive wins and a win this week will ensure they remain there for at least another couple of weeks with a guaranteed 2 points coming with the Bye. They are undefeated against sides in the bottom half of the ladder, winning 8 from 8 and they have also won 13 of their last 16 matches played at ANZ Stadium. Only once in their last 13 matches have they trailed at half time and they have also led at the break in 7 of the last 10 clashes with the Tigers. They are 7-9 ATS and have covered in only 2 of 7 at home this season. They are 9-7 Over in TMP’s, with their last 6 all going Over, at an average of 48. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of their last 6 matches at ANZ Stadium and in 10 of the last 14 clashes with the Tigers. Curtis Rona has scored 21 tries from 23 matches at ANZ Stadium and he has been the Bulldogs 1st try scorer on 4 occasions this season. Three key outs make this a difficult assignment for the Tigers, with Farah, Woods and most importantly Tedesco all missing through Origin duties. They also have an average record at ANZ Stadium and while they have won 3 of their last 4 at the ground, their long term record reads as 10 wins and 17 losses since 2011. The Tigers are an even 8-8 ATS but have covered in only 2 of their last 11 matches when getting a double digit start. They are 10- 6 Over in TMP’s, with their last 4 totaling 44 points or more, while the previous 8 clashes with the Dogs have all topped 40 points. A winning margin of 13+ has been the result in 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Preview

Tigers have a very poor record when with out Farah and Woods, now add to that possibly their best player and certainly their attacking genius in Tedesco and this certainly looks a challenge. It then also looks hard as to how their line up then holds things together, and they do have a habit of crumbling quickly on occasions.

Bulldogs also lose two to Origin, but they have some quality forward depth. I actually liked a lot more of what I saw about the Bulldogs last week, up against it early against a side playing well they showed some signs of then working hard, doing some tough stuff, getting some of the little things right to build pressure and come home hard to win. I’d suggest that’s the best effort I have seen of them for some months. They also have a quality recent and longer term record at Homebush, winning 3 of 5 here this season.

Bulldogs should be placed to advantage here against an under strength opponent.

Bet 2 units Bulldogs -8.5 $1.87 Sportsbet


Panthers vs Sharks

-4.5 Panthers

Stats

The Panthers will get no better opportunity to knock off the ladder leaders when a depleted Cronulla Sharks side, who are missing 5 players for Origin 3, head out West for a Sunday afternoon showdown. Cronulla set a new club record last week, recording 12 consecutive wins but 13 could prove to be an unlucky number. The Sharks have won 6 of the previous 8 clashes with the Panthers but they are rank outsiders for this clash and have opened at their longest price since Round 1. The Sharks only 2 losses this season have come on the road but they were all the way back in Rounds 1 & 3. Cronulla had been blessed until this point, requiring just 19 players throughout the season, which is the fewest of any club and 4 of their 5 Origin representatives hadn’t missed a game, with Gallen the only player to have spent time on the sidelines. The Sharks sit on top of the ladder for the 6th time in 7 weeks, they are ranked 4th in both attack defence, giving them the 3rd best differential in the competition. They are 9-6 ATS, with a 5-1 covering record on the road, while they have covered in 11 of their last 13 day games and 8 of their last 10 matches when getting a start. The Sharks are 8-7 Under in TMP’s, with a 4-2 Over record away from home, while they are 11-5 Over in day games since 2015. Some indifferent form has seen the Panthers drift in and out of the Top 8 for the last 6 weeks but their next month could well decide whether they are Finals bound, as their next 4 matches are all against sides currently in the Top 8. They have won only 4 of 7 at home this season and only 2 of 5 at Pepper Stadium. The Panthers have won 4 of their last 5 as a home favourite though and come into this match at their 3rd shortest price of the season. They rank 11th in attack and 7th in defence which has them in 9th spot on both the ladder and the differential standings. Penrith are 8-7 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 3 matches at Pepper Stadium. They are 8-7 Over in TMP’s, with 5 of their last 6 at home all topping 40. Only once in their last 6 matches have the Panthers led at half time and they have also trailed at the break in the previous 8 meetings with the Sharks. A winning margin of 1-12 points has been the result in the last 4 clashes and no side has had more 1-12 results than the Panthers (14) and the Sharks (12).

Preview

The Sharks have been on a sensational run of 12 straight wins season to date but this looks a task with the Origin impact of losing 5 key players (and leaders) in Fifita, Bird, Maloney, Gallen and Graham. This punches major holes through their middle, left edge ball play, kicking game (and goal kicking) and right edge, impact right across the park. I’d suggest this is a week where Flanagan looks to patch things up as best he can for one week, give it their best shot but know that within a week they’ll be back to normal.

I’m not sure where the media have been through recent weeks in addressing the poor results coach Griffin has provided with the Panthers this season, for mine he has escaped season to date some obvious attention. I’ve never been a fan of his (as a coach), for mine his record is propped up by Lockyer’s class, and his last two years at the Broncos were shocking delivering significant under performance with the quality of list he had. His key failing in my opinion is his inability to coach attack, coupled with his hair brained ideas in moving key individuals in and out of position (and or murdering their careers). Watch closely what the Panthers do when they play the last 30 mtrs in attack, they have zero idea in how to construct and set up a set of 6 to score (or advantage), zero idea how to work the defence to open a hole, create an overlap or decoy or target a defensive weakness, they just pass and play left to right and hope, hope that a slight piece of skill or muscle or defensive mistake allows them to score. I think the record now stands at 13 of their 18 games this yr have been decided one way or the other by 2 points or less, and people wonder why, this is why, the coach has zero idea (and for those who look closely at his Broncos record it reads the same – clearly Gould didn’t). And then look at players like Cartwright and Peachy, Cartwright is a right edge backrower with significant skill, not a 6, yet now being exposed at 6 while the team loses the benefits of his abilities in his former role; while Peachy is a middle impact forward who has the rare skill of being able to change up a game, the tempo, half breaks, touches of skill – now being wasted completely out of position as left centre….

It’s also not hard to punch holes in the Panthers form winning just 2 of their last 5, both with some large doses of luck against opponents who laid down for important periods of the game (Rabbits and Eagles). They are back at home, should be stung off their loss last week and face an under strength opponent. I’m with them, they get their chance, but lets not hold our breath.

Bet 1 unit Panthers -2.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet


Raiders vs Cowboys

-12.5 Raiders

Stats

A decimated Cowboys side travels from the tropics of Townsville to a chilly Canberra to take on the Raiders in the final match of Round 18. North Queensland will be without 7 regulars through Origin and injury, while the Raiders are forced to make 2 changes with Papalii and Bateman out. The Cowboys have won 8 of the last 10 clashes with the Raiders, including 3 of the last 5 match ups at GIO Stadium, but they start this match at their longest price in 2 years. They have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road, with their only away win coming in their last outing against the Rabbitohs in Cairns. The Cowboys remain in 3rd spot with the best attack and the 2nd best defence, while they also have the 2nd best differential. They are 9-7 ATS, while they are split 4-4 covering on the road and have covered in 15 of their last 21 when getting a start. In TMP’s they are split 8-8, while their last 4 on the road have finished Under, with none of them topping 30. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in 3 of the last 4 meetings at GIO Stadium, while the Cowboys have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 8 of the last 9 clashes. The Raiders are at home for the 2nd week in a row and have won 6 of 8 at GIO Stadium this season. They again start as a favourite and have won 5 of their last 6 in that position previously. The Raiders are currently 6th on the ladder and are 8th in defence, while they have the 2nd best attack in the comp with an average of 25 points per game (just a half a point average behind Nth Qld). Canberra is10-6 ATS, with a 5-3 record at home but they have covered in only 9 of their last 23 as a favourite dating back to 2014. The Raiders are 12-4 Over in TMP’s and 7-1 Over at home, with all 8 topping 41 at an average of 52, while the last 7 clashes with the Cowboys have also all topped 41. Both sides have the week off following this match and both sides have average records leading into a Bye, with the Cowboys losing 7 of their last 10, while the Raiders have lost 6 of their last 10. Both sides also have similar form lines, with each winning 3 of their last 5 and both having had a Bye and a loss. In MNF, the Cowboys have won 7 of their last 8, while the Raiders have lost 3 of their last 5 Monday fixtures. The home side has a 10-6 record in MNF and a 9-7 record ATS.

Preview

The Cowboys are the new Broncos with the Origin period really shortening them up, and they have also been highly disadvantaged by the draw this year having to play two games through this period without their key players. With Origin outs and injury they will line up here with 7 key outs in Thurston, Cooper, Scott, Tamou, and O’Neill (all Origin) and Morgan and Linnett (injury). Clearly that’s one long list of quality outs. They also then face an away game with young inexperienced replacements into the freezing cold of Canberra for a night game.

The trick with the Raiders is in working out when to try and catch them as they can be one hell of a head case at times and quickly flick off the boil. Good quality wins through the Bulldogs then Eagles yet with a little belief they then dropped their guard and were smacked by an under performing Broncos, off freshen up then work hard for good away win over Titans then back at home conceding a -26.5 line with the markets again drop their guard and have to storm home late into extra time for a golden point win. And that’s what we are dealing with here, but I think it’s again the right week to be with them. I wasn’t all that surprised that they were off last week, playing a weak opponent who had only won just the 1 game all season, at home, off a good win, but I’m hopeful that has then given them the necessary shake up into this week for Stuart to try and get their heads right to aim up and make a statement here. Their best should see them rolling through the middle with some strength and offer them some room to play, and that should lead to points, and potentially many. Their opponent should be short on combinations and attack options, and defensively much easier than normal to shut down. But, the Raiders have got to come to play.

Raiders get their chance, they have been good at home (winning 6 of their last 8) and get conditions (freezing) and a significantly weakened opponent to suit. If they get this right they can win comfortably, but with them nothing is straight forward and we’ll now have to see how they turn up.

Bet 3 units Raiders -8.0 $1.88 Crownbet


NSW vs QLD

I shall do a separate preview through the weekend for this game, but some short initial notes. Clearly NSW get their chance here, back at home, dead rubber game and some positive team changes, their should be no excuse. I do have concerns still over the stupidity of playing 5 front rowers, and if Daley will have any preparedness to ball play through the middle, play direct off his halves (who as of today are yet to be decided) or move the ball. If you thought I was harsh of Griffin don’t get me started on Daley or Fulton. Whereas QLD just get on with the job. No drama, solid selections, they no the drill, laced with brains and experience, and having again won the series buoyed with confidence and belief. Yes its a dead rubber game, but don’t we keep getting the feeling that Smith, Thurston and co just love beating NSW and giving it to them time and again?

So on one hand we have a choice of thinking this game is important to NSW, a hunch that they might get their attack right, and a hope that the new and inexperienced combinations work. Or the other choice is a mob who win when counting sheep in their sleep, know how to play the big stuff under pressure, are riding on the back of winning confidence and would love nothing more than to stick it to their opposition with a 3 zip result.

Being a dead rubber game it has lots of ifs and buts about it but I’m with the long term proven, the mob who win and we know what we are going to get, not the hopeful hunch.



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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 15

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 15

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 23

 

Bet 2 units West Coast-North Melbourne under 178.5 $1.91 Bet365

Bet 2 units St Kilda -40.5 $1.92 Luxbet BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Port Adelaide, Sydney, GWS, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Adelaide, West Coast, St Kilda


Game Previews

 

West Coast v North Melbourne

High stakes clash will major ramifications for ladder positions that screams potential arm wrestle despite the daytime scheduling. Both teams have been dominant under sides this season with the Eagles going under in 10 of 14 games and the Kangas going under in 8 of 14 games including 8 of the last 9 games. The last three head to head clashes have yielded 135, 160 and 126 points. Last years preliminary final was marred by poor goal kicking hence the yield of just 135 points but even if both teams kicked 50%, the match would still have only yielded 175 points. Given the stakes, I anticipate a similar encounter here. Rain is forecast in the three days leading up to the match with clearing thunderstorms forecast for Sunday. Should we have a wet track, it will further enhance the probability of the match going under.

Bet 2 units West Coast-North Melbourne under 178.5 $1.91 Bet365


St Kilda v Essendon

I’m very keen to take on Essendon and Brisbane over the last eight weeks when the opportunity presents itself. Essendon were competitive for three quarters last week before falling away badly late and they now lose Zaharakis. It would not surprise to see their season really freefall from here on. They also have a shocking record under the roof, losing ten straight and failing to cover the line in 22 of their last 33 at Etihad. St Kilda were again dismal interstate last week, but they have proven they can bounce back when at home. They have won four straight at Etihad defeating the Cats by 3, Blues by 32, Freo by 34 and Bombers by 46. For good measure, the Saints also beat the Bombers by 110 in Round 14 last year. The market agrees and has moved at least two points towards St Kilda since Tuesday morning.

Bet 2 units St Kilda -40.5 $1.92 Luxbet BB


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Port Adelaide v Hawthorn – Port have won three of their last four against the Hawks and have covered the line in 21 of their last 29 night games. Market has moved as much as 6 points towards Power since Tuesday morning.


Geelong v Sydney – Swans have not lost two in a row all season, recording convincing wins after their previous three losses.


GWS v Collingwood – Giants have covered the line in 20 of their last 28 as favourite while Pies are inferior in the day, covering only 5 of their last 19 under the sun. However, GWS is yet to beat the Pies.


Gold Coast v Brisbane – The Lions have failed to cover the line in 26 of their last 36 games however they lifted for the Sunshine Stoush earlier this year and with two weeks prep, I expect them to lift again for this game against little brother and then potentially go into freefall for the rest of the season. Danger game!


Western Bulldogs v Richmond – Dog have gone under in 11 of their last 17 night games but the market appears to be right for this one.


Melbourne v Fremantle – Demons have only covered the line in 9 of their last 27 interstate trips while Freo have covered in 40 of their last 64 games with a seven day or more break. Nonetheless I have a slight lean to Dees. Not keen to bet at a rarely used neutral venue.


Carlton v Adelaide – Blues have covered the line in 19 of 27 day games and Crows have gone over the total match score line in 20 of their last 26 day games.


 

 

 


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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 15

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 14

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 14

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 14

 

Bet 3 units West Coast-Essendon under 186.5 $1.88 Sportsbet BB

Bet 2 units Sydney-Western Bulldogs under 172.5 $1.88 Sportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

West Coast, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, Sydney, Collingwood, Adelaide


Game Previews

With the second half of this split round there are thin pickings, but I do like this game / bet.

 

West Coast v Essendon

The struggling Bombers travel west after a much needed bye why the Eagles will be looking to keep their faint top four hopes alive. It is well documented that the Eagles have been flat track bullies at home and I expect that to continue, but am not keen to play a line in the 70’s. However, I do think the line has been set quite high for a mid-winter night game. Both teams have long term under records at night with the Eagles going 17-8 under at night across the last five seasons while the Dons have gone under in 24 of their last 34 night matches. This season, the Eagles have gone under in 9 out of 13 games and the Dons have gone under in 7 out of 13 games. Furthermore, the last two head to head clashes yielded 142 and 151 points. I expect there is a good chance that we will see a similar score line to the Eagles recent home victories over the Suns (132-55) and the Saints (132-29). And it wouldn’t surprise me if Worsfold has primed his team for a bold showing against his former club. The market agrees and has firmed 4-6 points towards the under since Tuesday morning.

Bet 3 units West Coast-Essendon under 186.5 $1.88 Sportsbet BB


Sydney v Western Bulldogs

Great clash of the AFL’s top two defensive sides, with both coming into this clash fresh off a bye. The match will start at twilight but with the early sunset it will be night time by the time we get to the second quarter. I expect the match will be fiercely fought at ground level and there is a good change that it will subsequently develop into an arm wrestle.  The Swans are allowing just 69 points per game while the Dogs defence has restricted the opposition to a meager 74 points per game. Furthermore, the Swans have also gone under in five consecutive matches albeit with a couple of wet weather games thrown in while the Dogs have gone under in 8 of 13 matches this season including 4 of their last 5. The market agrees and has firmed 1-3 points towards the under since Tuesday morning.

Bet 2 units Sydney-Western Bulldogs under 172.5 $1.88 Sportsbet


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Port Adelaide v Richmond – Power have covered the line in 20 of their last 28 night games but have lost 3 of their last 5 against the Tigers. Lean to the Power coming off a bye with Tigers off a six day break.


Gold Coast v St Kilda – Gold Coast have lost 10 straight but are getting closer to a win after improved recent performances. Saints beat Geelong last start but have failed to cover the line in 8 of their last 29 matches away from the MCG and Etihad. Danger game!


Carlton v Collingwood – Carlton won the day clash earlier this season but now the Pies are in their preferred night slot while the Blues have only covered the line in 4 of their last 15 night matches.


Melbourne v Adelaide – Crows have gone over the line in 19 of their last 26 interstate games and 11 of their last 14 day games. However, the last three head to head clashes have yielded 135, 137 and 172 points and neither side has yielded more than 181 points in any of their last three games.


 

 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 14

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 17

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 17

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 17 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+3.5 Roosters vs Bulldogs

-3.5 Broncos vs Storm

-5.5 Warriors vs Titans

+5.5 Tigers vs Panthers

-17.5 Sharks vs Eels

-18.5 Raiders vs Knights

+12.5 Rabbits vs Cowboys

-7.5 Eagles vs Dragons

 


NRL Round 17 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Broncos-Storm Under 39.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 1 units Storm +5.5 $1.97 Pinnacle

Bet 3 units Titans +12.0 $1.92 Pinnacle

Bet 3 units Sharks H2H x Cowboys H2H $1.78 Sportsbet BB

Bet 2 units Eagles -3.5 $1.90 Topsport

 

Round 18

Bet 2 units Bulldogs -8.5 $1.87 Sportsbet

Bet 1 unit Panthers -2.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet

Bet 3 units Raiders -8.0 $1.88 Crownbet / -8.5 $1.87 William Hill BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Bulldogs, Storm, Warriors, Tigers, Sharks, Raiders, Cowboys, Eagles


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Roosters vs Bulldogs

+3.5 Roosters

Stats

The Roosters will be fresh after the week off and they have won 6 of their last 7 when coming off a Bye. They will be looking to make amends after their last effort at home when they suffered their biggest ever defeat at Allianz Stadium, conceding 46 unanswered points against the Storm. The Roosters have a good recent record over the Bulldogs, winning 6 of the last 8 clashes, as well as winning 6 of the previous 8 clashes at Allianz Stadium, where the Dogs have a 50/50 record since 2010, winning 5 of 10. For the 8th week in a row the Roosters sit 2nd last on the ladder, with the 2nd worst differential in the comp, while they are ranked 12th in defence and 14th in attack. They are 5-9 ATS, with a 3-5 record at Allianz Stadium, while they have covered in 4 of the previous 5 clashes with the Bulldogs. They are 9-5 Over in TMP’s and clashes against the Dogs have more often than not, also been high scoring affairs, with the last 3 totalling 50 or more, while 12 of the last 14 clashes have totalled 38 or more. The Bulldogs will be looking to make it 3 consecutive wins for the 1st time in 2016, as well as defeating the Roosters twice in a season for the 1st time since 2012. A win will also see them move into the Top 4 for the 1st time since Round 4, while a loss could see them drop as low as 7th. The Dogs are ranked 5th in attack and 6th in defence, giving them the 5th best differential. They are 7-8 ATS, with a 5-3 covering record on the road, while they have covered in 3 of 4 in 2016 as a road favourite. In TMP’s they are 8-7 Over, with 4 of their last 5 totalling 50 or more. The Bulldogs have led at half time in their last 10 matches, but only once in the last 8 clashes with the Roosters have they led at the break. In 9 of the last 10 matches where Grant Atkins has been the lead referee, the home side has failed to cover the line.

Preview

Don’t like the game. Roosters off freshen up with 3 possibly 4 key ins to return (some whispers Cordner may play), have lost 4 of last 5 but with stronger list and Pearce calling the shots I expect to improve here at home. Bulldogs dusted up the Broncos last week but that second half was very soft, their halves still frustrate the hell out of me with their lack of ability to take hold of a game by the scruff of the neck and direct it as it should be played.

Bulldogs, but looks very even at the line and I shall just be watching.


Broncos vs Storm

-3.5 Broncos

Stats

To say that the Storm have a dominant record over the Broncos is an understatement, with Melbourne recording 16 wins from the last 19 clashes with Brisbane dating back to 2007, while they have also won 9 of the last 10 meetings at Suncorp Stadium since 2005. Brisbane is coming off their biggest loss of the season and they have now lost 5 of their last 7. Despite their poor recent form, they still rank 3rd in attack but have slipped to 5th in defence. They are 7-8 ATS and have failed to cover in the last 5 clashes with Melbourne. They do have a positive record when covering at home, producing a 17-8 record as a home favourite since 2014. In TMP’s they are 8-7 Under but their last 3 have finished Over, topping 44 points or more. Only once in the last 10 clashes with the Storm have the Broncos led at half time and they have lost 4 from 4 this season when trailing at the break. Brisbane is the Number 1 side for posting the 1st points of the match, opening the scoring in 13 of their 15 matches, but a Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in 10 of the previous 12 clashes with the Broncos. The Storm comes into this match with just 1 loss from their last 9 to sit comfortably in 2nd spot. They have won 5 from 7 on the road and they have also won 5 of their last 7 as a road dog. Melbourne has the best defence and the best differential in the NRL, while they are ranked 6th in attack. They are 8-7 ATS and are 9-7 since 2014 when getting a start on the road. The Storm has had Unders results in 11 of their 15 matches and this has also been the result in 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Broncos. Melbourne has scored the 1st points of the match in all 7 of their away games, while Suliasa Vunivalu has been their 1st try scorer in 4 of their last 5 away from home.

Preview

Broncos have lost 7 of their last 8, touched up last week, return home and do get a few key players back. The markets knowledge appears to be that Munster and Green will play here given the line position.

Two coaches who focus on, and pride themselves on defence, and I’d suggest with both having leaked points last week in particular the Broncos all of this week would have been spent focused in this area, in particular getting their heads right. I expect the Broncos will improve, and that we are in for a tight, tough, possibly scrappy game driven by a total group of players driven by defensive effort. Broncos have had problems in the halves,notably Hunt all season,his form is just plain terrible, but again I don’t expect their attack or running of the ball to have had much work applied to it this week.

Both teams come off short turn arounds into a Thursday night game. I want to be with the Storm, they have been winning, they have confidence and belief, have a good record at this ground, and defensively have been very tight most weeks. They concede only 10 pts a week most weeks, notably when on the road, and 6 of their last 7 road games have all gone under. Broncos longer term record defending at home is also good, with an average of near 12, and H2H these two teams last 5 games have all been tight offerings with totals averaging just 31 pts.

I just have to have a small play on the Storm here, the price and start is just too big for a winning side with such a significant record over their opponent and at the ground against a side who have lost 6 of their last 7.

Bet 2 units Broncos-Storm Under 39.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 1 units Storm +5.5 $1.97 Pinnacle


Warriors vs Titans

-5.5 Warriors

Stats

The only match of the round featuring 2 last start losers kicks off Super Saturday when the Warriors clash with the Titans at Mt Smart Stadium. The Warriors have won 9 of the last 10 clashes with the Titans, including winning 4 of the previous 5 clashes that have been played at Mt Smart Stadium. They have won 3 of their last 4 and 3 of their last 4 at home but are still yet to feature in the Top 8 this season. They come into this match with the 7th best record in attack but they are 13th in defence, conceding an average of 24 points a game. The Warriors are 7-8 ATS with a 3-4 covering record at home, while they have an 8-7 record at home when giving up a start of more than a converted try. They are 10-5 Over in TMP’s, with 7 of their 15 matches totaling 50 or more. A Warriors try has been the first scoring play in 11 of the last 13 meetings with the Titans and they have also scored the first try of the 2nd half in 8 of the last 9 clashes. Shaun Johnson has been the Warriors 1st try scorer in their last 4 games played at home. After recording 3 straight wins, the Titans have now lost 2 of their last 3, which has seen them drop from 8th to 10th on the ladder. They rank 9th in attack, scoring an average of 21 points a game, while they rank 10th in defence, conceding 22 points per game. The Titans have been very favourable ATS, covering in 10 of their 15 matches and they have covered in 5 of their 6 games as a road dog. In TMP’s they are 8-7 Over and 5-2 Over on the road, while the previous 7 (and 14 of the last 16) clashes with the Warriors have totaled 40 or more, with an average of 48. Only once in their 7 away games have the Titans led at half time and they have also led only once against the Warriors from the previous 8 meetings at Mt Smart Stadium. The Titans have the week off following this match and their pre Bye record is poor, recording just 3 wins from their last 13 matches. The home side has won 9 of the last 10 matches when Matt Cecchin has been in charge.

Preview

Warriors have to be a significant risk here, and while I expect them might well win the line is way long especially against a side like the Titans who a) have such and excellent road record as underdog, and b) will chance their arm in attack here and make things interesting.

The Warriors are rolling along with their typical mid season Origin run where they are winning against sides mostly carrying the burned of key outs or rep footy workload. They got the Sharks under such last week for a near win, struggled against a depleted Roosters the week prior. The walked through the Knights which is par for the course and when under serious focus and pressure aimed up to dust up the Broncos – a form line that right now also has its own question marks all over it. The key here is that having won 2 of their last 4 they have a soft glow about themselves of having dropped some of the pressure and importantly they are up against a team with no Origin baggage.

Titans look to have found their level through recent weeks, but that is a similar level to the Warriors, and for mine certainly not a level with a possible 14 point gap between them. They got steam rolled with some momentum last week vs Raiders, but they weren’t that far away. They have the best underdog away record in the comp, 25 line covers from last 36 road games (70%), and this gets even better when underdogs with 6.5 or more start covering 17 of their last 25 (70%).

I have also made the point previously that the Warriors are very poor home favs under expectation, especially through recent years when they have been such inconsistent head jobs, and just looking at their last 7 home games as fav against highlights this point, covering the line just 2 of those 7.

Warriors likely to squeak home with a win but the Titans with 12 point or better line start certainly the play here.

Bet 3 units Titans +12.0 $1.92 Pinnacle


Tigers vs Panthers

+5.5 Tigers

Stats

The Tigers had won 7 straight against the Panthers before Penrith recorded back to back victories in the 2 most recent encounters. The Panthers will be looking to consolidate their spot in the Top 8, while keeping at bay those behind them that are trying to take their place. A win will make it 3 consecutive victories for the 1st time since 2014, as well as making it 3 straight wins over the Tigers for the 1st time since 2010. The Panthers come into this match with a 7-7 win loss record, they are ranked 7th in attack and 11th in defence, while their differential ranks 8 th. All but 1 of their 14 matches has been decided by a margin of 1-12, with 7 of them decided by 2 points or less. They are 8-6 ATS, with a 5-2 covering record as an away side, while they are 5-3 since 2014 when giving up a start on the road. The Panthers are split evenly in TMP’s, with a 7-7 result, while 5 of their last 6 on the road have finished Under, with only 1 of them totaling more than 38. The Panthers last 4 matches at ANZ Stadium have all finished Under in TMP’s and have all been decided by a margin of 1-12. It’s a must win game for the Panthers, who play 3 of the Top 5 sides in their next 3 games. It’s the start of a tough run home for the Tigers, who play 6 of their last 9 games against sides currently in the Top 8 and they have only won 1 of 7 against the Top 8 sides to this point. They currently sit 12th on the ladder, with their attack ranking 10th, while they have the 2nd worst defensive record in the NRL, conceding 25 points a game. They have lost 5 of their last 7 at ANZ Stadium and 4 of their last 5 as a home underdog. They are 7-8 ATS and have a 7-5 covering record since 2015 when getting a start at home. They favour the Overs in TMP’s, producing a 9-6 result, while they are 7-4 Over at ANZ Stadium in night games since 2014. The Tigers have conceded the 1st try of the match in all 7 of their previous matches against a top 8 opponent.

Preview

Very tricky game with two teams harder to catch than trouble at 3am. And we saw all the best and worst of both of them last week, further underlining how tricky they are to catch. Panthers did everything as they should have to lead by 14 with 6 minutes left, at home, against an opponent (Rabbits) who have won just 5 games and are leaking 30 a week and were all out on their feet. They then let two soft tries in to just sneak home by 2 points. Tigers something similar, gone for all money with a terrible first half offering leaking 26 easy points, yet then following a half time rev up aimed up when it didn’t matter to make things some what close in the second 40.

If, and its a major if, but if the Tigers put their best foot forward here they have one of their strongest team lists with Farah back, quality attack and their best form better than their opponent. I lent that way but will staying well away.


Sharks vs Eels

-17.5 Sharks

Stats

The 4 th placed Parramatta Eels travel to Shark Park to tackle the table topping Cronulla Sharks to close out Super Saturday. Not only is this the only match of the Round featuring 2 last start winners, neither one of these sides has been beaten for the last 5 weeks. The Eels are looking for 4 straight wins for the 1st time since 2010, while the Sharks are aiming for a club record 12 consecutive wins for the 1st time in their 50 year history. The Eels have won 4 of the last 6 clashes with the Sharks, but have recorded just the 1 win from the last 4 meetings at Shark Park. Parramatta has had the week off but it hasn’t served them well previously, as they have lost 10 of their last 12 coming out of a Bye. They have won 5 from 6 on the road this season, while they are 4 and 4 against their Top 8 counterparts. Parramatta are ranked 13th in attack, but have the 2nd best defensive record in the NRL, conceding 14 points a game. The Eels are 8-6 ATS, while they are 6-6 since 2015 as a road dog. They are 10-4 Under in TMP’s, while 11 of their last 14 night games have also finished Under. The Eels have scored the 1st try of the match in 8 of the last 9 meetings with the Sharks, who have conceded the 1st try in their past 3 matches. The Sharks sit on top of the ladder for the 5th time in 6 weeks, they are ranked 4th in attack and 3rd in defence, giving them the 3 rd best differential in the competition. They remain unbeaten at home, extending their winning run at Shark Park to 8, when they snuck home last week against the Warriors. Their last 7 matches at home have been decided by a margin of 1-12 and this has also been the margin in 6 of their 7 matches against the Top 8, with the Sharks winning 6 of those. They are 9-5 ATS, while they have an 8-11 covering record since 2014 when giving up a start at home. The Sharks are 8-6 Under in TMP’s, with 6 of their 8 home games finishing that way.

Preview

Sharks clearly look the obvious here, and certainly should win, but just some caution with the length of line at -10.5 (12 pts). While they keep winning their record at the line is poor having covered just 2 of their last 6 at home, and just 4 of their last 13 when at home and favs conceding 6.0 or more. And just to add some spice to this the Eels have covered the line at 7 of their last 9 games when playing away from Parra Stadium.

The Eels are in a mess in every which way at present and have nothing to recommend right now. Sharks certainly should win, but I’ll pass on a 12 point line that then looks to make the game line ball.


Raiders vs Knights

-18.5 Raiders

Stats

The Knights travel to the Nation’s Capital in what will be a chilly Sunday afternoon in Canberra. There was nothing between these sides when they last met in Round 3, with both sides leaving Hunter Stadium with a point each but it shapes as a different contest this week. The Raiders start as the 2nd shortest favourite of the season and have given up the biggest line of any side since Round 25, 2014. They have won 5 of 7 at home and 4 of their last 5 which sees them sitting 7th on the ladder. They are ranked 9th in defence, while they are 2nd in attack, averaging 25 points a game. Canberra is 10-5 ATS and has covered in 7 of their last 8, while they are 5-2 at home. They have a 9-10 covering record as a home favourite since 2014, while home teams giving up a double digit start are 11-8 in 2016. The Raiders are a big Overs side, with 11 of their 15 matches finishing that way and they also favour the Overs in day games, with a 27-10 result since 2014. A Raiders try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 5 meetings with the Knights, while the Knights have conceded the 1st try in their last 7 matches. The Knights have now lost 9 straight and have conceded 20 or more points in all of those matches. They also remain winless on the road, conceding an average of more than 36 points a game. They are 5-10 ATS and have covered in only 1 of 6 this season when getting a double digit start. The Knights also favour the Over’s in TMP’s, producing a 9-6 result, with their last 3 all topping 48. There have usually been plenty of points on offer when these sides meet, with a TMP average of 48 since 2008 and 5 of the last 6 totaling 48 or more but the set point of 52.5 is too high for an interest. A winning margin of 13+ has been the result in 13 of the past 16 meetings.

Preview

Again some caution here. The Raiders will win, but the line and total look tricky positions, and I would certainly wait till the final Raiders team list was announced as I have signifiacant concerns that 2, 3 or more Raiders named players may well not line up, with Hodgson having had a few recent head knocks, Soliola carrying an arm injury, Wighton under some doubt, and possibly others. In what looks a straight forward result for the Raiders I would not be surprised to see Stuart rest some of these key players. That then makes a 26 point line and 54 point total positions a much more tricky equation.

Raiders to be winning, but I will be staying out.


Rabbits vs Cowboys

+12.5 Rabbits

Stats

A home game for the Rabbitohs, but it will be played closer to the Cowboys home base when these 2 sides meet at Barlow Park in Cairns for the 1st time. The Cowboys have won 5 of the last 6 meetings with the Rabbitohs who have now lost 4 straight and another loss this week will make it 5 in a row for the 1st time since 2009. Souths remain 4th last on the ladder, while they rank 8th in attack and 12th in defence and only the Knights have conceded more points than the Rabbitohs since Round 7, at an average of nearly 30. They have lost 5 from 6 against a Top 8 opponent and have trailed at half time in all of those matches. They are 6-9 ATS and have covered in only 2 of 6 when getting a start. The Rabbitohs continue to be an Overs side in TMP’s, with their last 7 totaling 42 or more, while their 3 previous matches at Barlow Park have all topped 52. They have lost 3 of their last 4 heading into a Bye and they have also lost their last 4 matches against Queensland based teams. The Cowboys are holding steady on the ladder, remaining in 3rd place for the 4th week in a row. They will be looking to put back to back wins together for the 1st time since Round 9, going a win loss sequence through their last 7 matches. They rank 4th in defence, while they remain the Number 1 attacking side in the NRL. North Queensland is 8-7 ATS, with a 7-5 record as a favourite, while they have covered in only 1 of the last 5 against South Sydney. They are 8-7 Over in TMP’s, while 4 of the last 6 meetings with the Rabbitohs have topped 42. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of their last 9 matches and they have also scored the opening try in 5 of the previous 7 clashes with the Bunnies. This match shapes up as a high scoring affair, with both sides favouring the Overs, both sides also have Overs records in day games, since 2014 the Rabbits are 9-5 and the Cowboys are 4-1.

Preview

To be played in Cairns.

Rabbits have been in free fall for some time now losing 8 of their last 10 and consistently letting through 30 points a week, its a very poor record for a team who won the comp but 18 mths ago. Reynolds has been named but must still be in doubt and it appears Carter has been stood down or sacked through recent days. They lost one of these “distant” home games a few weeks ago to the Titans in Perth and they face the current Premiers who hold a significant H2H record over them at present.

Thought the Cowboys got lazy last week to start the second half, they led by 10 and looked to have the game to their keeping and normally put their foot down, then as the Eagles threatened they then did putting two tries back on the board within minutes to then go on and win. That’s the thing about this side this year, they have that belief and confidence to be able to back themselves out of just about anything if and when required. With this game in Cairns they have minor travel (about 90 minutes up the road) and will again have vocal local support, and with their ball movement should be able to open up and exploit the defensive deficiencies of their opponent.

These two have meet a number of times through recent years at Nth Qld venues and have often times turned into free flowing open attacking high scoring games. Certainly the Cowboys are stronger than they have been, the Rabbits weaker, expect the Cowboys win and could well do comfortably but off a Monday night game, at a neutral venue and with origin pending I don’t want to play with the 12 point line.


Eagles vs Dragons

-7.5 Eagles

Stats

The Sea Eagles host the Dragons in MNF to close out Round 17 from Brookvale Oval in what shapes as a lack lustre affair. The Dragons have won 15 of 23 all-time against Manly, but the Sea Eagles have prevailed in 4 of the last 5 clashes at Brookvale Oval. Things are becoming desperate for the Sea Eagles, who are looking at 8 straight losses for the 1st time this century. Despite going down to the Cowboys last week, Manly were close to a break through win and will have gained some much needed confidence. They will need to address a very poor home record, with just 1 win from 7 matches this season. Manly are 14th on the ladder, with their attack ranking 12th, while they are 3rd last in the defensive standings. They are 5-10 ATS and have failed to cover in 8 of their last 9 as the home side. Manly is 8-7 Under in TMP’s, while 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Dragons have also finished Under, with an average of less than 30. Only once in the past 8 meetings have the Sea Eagles scored the 1st points of the match, while the half time leader has gone on to win the last 11 matches. The Dragons are on the road for the 2nd week in a row after disposing of the Knights last week but only once in the last 5 years have they managed to record back to back road wins and they have also lost 2 of their 3 most recent matches against a bottom 8 opponent. They are currently positioned in 9th, with the 8th best defensive record, but they have the 2nd worst attacking record in the competition. The Dragons have been great front runners in 2016, winning 8 from 8 with a half time lead, but they have lost 7 from 7 when trailing at the break. They have averaged just 5 2nd half points this season and only once in 15 matches have they outscored their opponent in the 2nd half. They are 8-7 ATS, with a 3-5 covering record on the road, while they have covered in only 4 of their last 11 away games when getting a start of less than a converted try. In TMP’s they are 11-4 Under, with a 6-2 Under record on the road. The last 5 clashes have been decided by a margin of 1-12 and this has also been the result in both sides last 5 matches. The home team has won 10 of 12 matches refereed by Gavin Badger in 2016, while home teams are 9-6 in Monday Night Football. Teams off MNF have also won 9 of 13, while Monday night matches have an 11-4 Under record in TMP’s.

Preview

I think this is the right game for the Eagles. They have been getting key players back over the last few weeks, notably Cherry-Evans and Lyon at 7 and 6 to offer some quality and leadership, and their forward offering is much better than it has been with far more hit and hurt in it now with Fonua-Blake and Vave getting better by the week. I liked what I saw in the 20 minutes after half time last week in Townsville, down by a two try margin they could well have laid down and been run over but came back strongly, especially through the middle, and that is where you start when taking the Dragons on. They have now lost 7 straight but importantly return to Brookvale and have a long healthy 7 day turn around, off the back of that grit and determination we saw they look ready to really want to win.

Leave me out of the Dragons and their form line let alone their current table position, I expect we will see them hit free fall through the next few months and be exposed as a bottom table team. Look a little more closely at their 3 latest wins and they have beaten the Knights (ho hum) and just got over Origin depleted Storm and Cowboys. Only just a few weeks ago they were thumped by the Rabbits who themselves have only won 2 of their last 10 – its a weak form line. And if we want to qualify the Knights form line, the last 11 teams to play them (the Knights) this season only 3 of the 11 have gone on to cover the line the following week. It’s a soft form line that then more often than not bluffs the markets.

I want to be with the Eagles, looks the right week, at home, determined to win, against a side through for mine a paper thin form line.

Bet 2 units Eagles -3.5 $1.90 Topsport



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

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