NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting | Round 25

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 25

 

MrG provides NRL Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 25 2016 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+2.5 Bulldogs vs Cowboys

-8.5 Storm vs Broncos

+8.5 Eagles vs Raiders

0.0 Titans vs Panthers

-5.5 Sharks vs Roosters

-9.5 Warriors vs Tigers

-14.5 Knights vs Rabbits

-7.5 Eels vs Dragons

 


NRL Round 25 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Storm -5.5 $1.91 William Hill / -6.0 Topsport

Bet 3 units Raiders -6.5 now available $1.94 Crownbet BB

Bet 2 units Rabbits -12.0 $1.93 Pinnacle

Bet 2 units Eels -4.5 $1.91 William Hill

Round 26

Bet 3 units Broncos -10.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet

Bet 3 units Cowboys -9.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet

Bet 3 units Panthers -8.5 $1.90 CrownBet / William Hill BB

 

Notes: With 9 teams still playing for final top 8 spots including the importance of either top 4 (double chance) or a home semi final we have key games where we know teams are playing to win. I see three games where those in form and playing at home should have a decided form advantage. Broncos certainly put their hand up last week with an impressive offering, they have the advantage of a 7 day turn around into an opponent who rolled over poorly in the 2nd this week and now face a short 5 day turn around into an interstate away game. The Cowboys also have an additional 2 day prep advantage this week and as we know hold a commanding advantage at home, the Titans have been very good but look busted, tired, have to travel and up against it. The Panthers are rolling along nicely, they too return home and should have too much skill and ball movement for an Eagles side busted with injury, likely to have further player outs and season’s end can’t come quick enough.

 

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Cowboys, Storm, Raiders, Titans, Sharks, Warriors, Rabbits, Eels


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Bulldogs vs Cowboys

+2.5 Bulldogs

 

Stats

It’s back to Belmore to kick off Round 25 in a Top 5 clash when the Bulldogs host the reigning Premiers to make it consecutive games for the Dogs against last year’s Grand Finalists. The Bulldogs suffered their biggest loss of the season when they met the Cowboys 5 weeks ago, which also equaled their highest ever losing margin to North Queensland. Canterbury has now lost 4 of their last 5 against their Top 8 counterparts and will start as a home underdog for the 1st time since Round 10 last year. They have won 6 of their last 7 at home but have been beaten in their last 2 matches at Belmore Oval. The Bulldogs remain in 4th spot with the 7th ranked attack and the 4th rated defence, giving them an 84 point differential that ranks 6th.Canterbury are 7-15 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 7 straight, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 6 against a Top 8 opponent and they have also covered in only 1 of their last 6 when getting a start at home. They are 12-10 Under in TMP’s, with their last 5 matches finishing that way, while 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Cowboys have failed to reach 40. The Bulldogs have won 11 of 15 this season with a half time lead, while they have lost 4 of 5 when trailing at the break. Brett Morris has scored 10 tries in his 8 games for the Dogs this season and he has been the Dogs 1st try scorer in their last 2 matches. The Cowboys returned to the winners circle last week to end a 3 game losing run and will be looking to make it back to back wins for the 1st time since Round 17. They have now won 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Bulldogs but they will need to improve on their recent away form, where they have lost 6 of their last 7 and they haven’t recorded a win in Sydney since Round 9. North Queensland is in 5th spot and will leap frog the Bulldogs to go back into the Top 4 with a win, they rank 3rd in attack, while their defence and differential both rank 2nd . The Cowboys are split evenly ATS, producing an 11-11 result and have covered in only 1 of their last 7 on the road. In TMP’s they are 14-8 Under, with their last 7 straight finishing that way, while their last 6 against the Top 8 have also finished Unders. The Cowboys have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 5 of the last 6 meetings with the Dogs, who have conceded the 1st try of the 2nd half in their last 6 straight. Antonio Winterstein scored a hat trick in the last meeting with the Bulldogs and was both the 1st and last try scorer of the match. The team to score the 1st try of the match has won 8 of the last 10 clashes, while the half time leader has gone on to win 6 of the last 7 meetings. In 8 of the previous 10 match ups, the winning margin has been by 1-12 points

Preview

Played at Belmore

The heavy wet weather in to Sydney in the days prior will favour the Bulldogs in bringing this much closer. I gave them some chance last week and again the just didn’t measure up under pressure, some of their offering and handling pathetic including turning over the ball 13 times alone in teh 2nd half, they were dam luck they were not flogged by 30. Off such form its not hard to work out why they have only won just 1 of their last 5 against Top 8 sides, and if we look at their last 5 weeks they came off a flogging to the Cowboys up north then wins over the Dragons, Knights, Eagles (should have lost) and the Broncos – the Dragons, Knights, Eagles does not now ready well. They also lose Kasanio, a big body in wet conditions.

Cowboys have won the last three including the touch up of 36-0 over the Bulldogs just 5 weeks ago, but they have only won 2 of their last 6 and both of those wins were at home. As expected they were much better last week, in particular seeing the much stronger individual form of Morgan but the Warriors away is also not strong form.

Bulldogs have failed to cover their last seven and have gone under in their last five while the Cowboys have covered just 3 of their last 9, hardly anything for us to get our teeth into, and then a likely very heavy track. being the first game of the round the bookies opened their totals marks late (mid today) and already had it positioned very safely at under 36. With the Cowboys, had it been a dry track I would have wanted to bet, but not now.


Storm vs Broncos

-8.5 Storm

 

Stats

The 2nd match of the Round featuring 2 Top 8 combatants sees ladder leaders the Storm, hosting the 6th placed Broncos in Friday Night Football. The Storm has completely dominated the Broncos since 2007, winning 17 of the 20 clashes, while they have won 11 of the previous 13 meetings in Melbourne. The Storm return home after back to back road legs to complete their travel for the regular season and a win over the Broncos will see them wrap up the Minor Premiership. Melbourne has won 14 of their last 16 and has suffered just the 1 defeat at AAMI Park in 2016, which was a 6 point loss to the Bulldogs way back in Round 6. They remain at the top of the ladder for the 3rd consecutive week and haven’t sat lower than 2nd since Round 11. Their defence and differential are the best in the competition, while they rank 4th in attack. The Storm is split evenly ATS, producing an 11-11 result and have covered in 10 of their last 15. They have a 5-5 cover record at home, with a 10-14 home record since 2014 when laying 6 points or more, while they have covered in their last 6 straight against Brisbane. In TMP’s they are 16-6 Under, with 5 of their last 6 totaling 36 or less, while 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Broncos have totaled 38 or less. A Melbourne try has been the 1 st scoring play in 11 of the previous 13 clashes with the Broncos. Suliasa Vunivalu bagged a hat trick in his last match against the Broncos and with his 4 tries last week, he is now the NRL’s leading try scorer with 21. Brisbane will be looking for 4 straight wins for the 1st time since April and if they can do so they will keep their slim chances of a Top 4 finish alive but more than likely secure a home semi-final in Week 1. They are 4 & 6 against the Top 8 and have won 2 of 5 against the Top 4. Brisbane remains in 6th spot with the 6th best attack, while their defence and differential both rank 5th. The Broncos are 10-12 ATS and have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 away games, but they have covered in 6 of their last 7 on the road as an underdog. Brisbane are split 11-11 in TMP’s, while 4 of their last 5 against the Top 8 have all gone Over. The Broncos have won 13 of 15 this season with a half time lead, but have lost 7 from 7 when trailing at the break and only once from their last 14 matches in Melbourne have they led at the break

Preview

The Storm have an outstanding record over the Broncos, basically when played anywhere, we were with them when the underdog some weeks ago and handing their opponent a toweling and nothing has changed. They have won 22 of the last 27 match ups, 17 of the last 20 and 11 of the last 13 in Melbourne, a powerful argument.

Yes the Broncos have won their last and their has been some positive signs, but this is an acid test against the current table leader. The Broncos of this time last year with that much ball would have won last week by near 50, yet they scored just the 1 try in the second half. But the wheels are turning in the right direction. I still worry about their authority (or lack of) in the middle, the scratchy form of Hunt and the quality (or depth) off their bench. I will be watching this game intently to see how they measure up.

I know in the end the Storm won comfortably enough last week, but had that have been anyone else mid table than the limp Eagles offering they were their to be beat. But, they now get a much better freshen up, week long Home prep and will be up for this against a major rival. I think at full strength they have an edge through the middle, and Bellamy was very clever pre and then during game pulling the Broncos apart on their left edge last time, I’m sure that will again be top of the menu here. Also, as has been his way through the last 10 weeks they will also play to their two key individual strengths on each wing with key kicking raids.

Storm come off two away games to then return home, they should improve further, expect they hard to beat here, well favoured and should cover.

Bet 2 units Storm -5.5 $1.91 William Hill / -6.0 Topsport


Eagles vs Raiders

+2.5 Eagles

 

Stats

The Raiders travel to Brookvale Oval to take on the Sea Eagles in what will be their final home game of the season. Manly has won 13 of the previous 17 clashes with the Raiders, including 8 of the last 10 meetings at Brookvale Oval. The Sea Eagles have now lost 3 in a row and have had a horror run with injuries, with only 3 other clubs having a longer playing list. Their win over the Sharks in Round 3 is their only win in 11 matches against the Top 8 and they have also lost 7 of their last 8 at home when starting as an outsider. The Sea Eagles are in 12th spot with an attack and defence that both rank 11th. They are 10-12 ATS and have covered in 6 of their last 8, but have failed to cover in 7 of their last 8 when getting a start at home. In TMP’s they are 12-10 in favour of the Under, while 4 of their last 5 at home have finished Over. The last 5 clashes with Canberra have also finished Over at an average of 55. A Manly try has been the 1st scoring play in 7 of the previous 8 clashes with the Raiders. The Raiders were given a scare last week before scoring 24 unanswered points against the Eels to extend their winning run to 8 consecutive matches. They have won 4 of their last 5 on the road and haven’t been beaten by a bottom 8 side since Round 10. They are now guaranteed a Top 4 finish and a possible top 2 finish is sure to keep them motivated. Canberra is the best attacking side in the NRL and along with their 7th ranked defence they have a differential that rates 4th. The Raiders are 14-8 ATS and have covered in their last 5 on the road, while they have also covered in the last 3 meetings with Manly. They are the Number 1 Overs side in the comp, producing a 16-6 result, with 10 of their last 12 finishing that way. The Raiders have scored the last try of the match in their last 7 matches and no side has scored more 2nd half points than the Raiders.

Preview

The Raiders long term record at this ground is poor winning just 2 of their last 10 here but for mine they get the right week to win, and likely win well.

I hate losing, and I hate losing 3 units on a bet, I can’t tell you how filthy I was first hearing the key 3 late team changes for the Eagles and then watching the insipid offering they put up against an opponent that was prime for a loss. They are rudderless in the halves, have muppets playing in the centres, Myles has been a terrible signing, I had given them the benefit of the doubt at wanting to still compete through to seasons end off their two prior efforts and close calls but the have now shown both with team selections and effort that they have put the white flag up. Coach Barrett has been one of the worst offenders all season long at naming make believe team lists on a Tuesday and then having numerous key late changes come game time, and I’m sure we will see this again this week, and those outs and changes will only weaken an already ordinary team list. The Storm scored 36, had they not come off such a physical game and 5 day turn around they’d have pumped 5 to 60 through quite easily so inept were their opponent.

The Raiders are a little on trust, difficult ground for them, off a few weeks of big wins and we saw some let down in the first 40 last week, but they have some significant resolve and belief right now that they can certainly step things up a gear when they wish (or if required). They have won 8 straight now and have momentum, they have depth, they have muscle and grunt through the middle in bucket loads and this will really work the Eagles over, and importantly they still have something to key playing for with 2nd spot available and the option of hosting a home semi final in week one (could you imagine that full house and atmosphere should that happen!).

All the stats suggest an overs play here being Raiders, day game and weak opponent, but I caution with all of rain that Sydney would have copped this ground is not a noted draining or great surface and chasing 46 might well be a major challenge – remembering that on a sunny dry track at home last week that game only just got to 46.

There may well be some slight risk with the Raiders of flatness and or this ground, but I want to be with them here and all of the key strengths and momentum that they have right now – up against a weak opponent. The Raiders just need to keep pumping through the middle, and play to their obvious strengths and the rest will happen, the Eagles will eventually roll over and this could see a significant score.

Update: Austin’s injury out is obviously not ideal, but against this side doesn’t overly concern me. I think they have strengths across the park, and can play to these with the #9, #7, #1 and then Williams stepping in, and anything like what the Eagles offered last week shouldn’t change things. Williams is also playing for a new contract with either club (Raiders and Eagles) and so will be keen to aim up.

Bet 3 units Raiders -5.5 $1.94 Crownbet BB


Titans vs Panthers

0.0 Titans

 

Stats

There will be plenty at stake when the Titans and Panthers go head to head on the Gold Coast in what shapes as 1 of the matches of the Round. A win for the Titans will see the Top 8 squared away with only the finishing positions to be finalized in the closing Round. The Panthers hold a slight all time advantage over the Titans, winning 8 of the 14 clashes and had won 4 straight before the Titans went back to back in the 2 most recent encounters. Wins on the glitter strip have been shared equally at 3 apiece, while the Titans will be looking for 3 consecutive wins over Penrith for the 1st time in their history. The Titans have lost just 1 of their last 6 but have been poor against their Top 8 counterparts, winning only 2 of 9. They have a 5-5-1 record at home this season and have won 3 of their last 4 as a favourite. The Titans have the 9th ranked defence, while their attack and differential both rank 8th . They have been an outstanding option ATS, covering in 16 of their 22 matches, while they have covered in 10 of their last 14 at CBus Stadium. In TMP’s they are 12-10 Under, with their last 4 finishing that way, while only 2 of their last 9 at home have totaled more than 40. The Titans have conceded the 1 st try in 8 of their 9 matches against a Top 8 opponent and they have also conceded the 1st try in the last 5 clashes with the Panthers. They have a perfect 8-0 win record when leading at half time, but have won only 2 of 9 when trailing at the break. The Panthers have now won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, with their last 3 wins all having a margin of 20 points or more, but like the Titans, Penrith have struggled for wins against the Top 8 sides, winning only 3 of 10. They are currently 7th and are likely to still make the Finals even if they were to lose their final 2 matches. They have an attack that ranks 5th and a defence that rates 8th, giving them a 69 point differential that ranks 7th. The Panthers have a 5-6 record on the road in 2016, but have lost 7 of their last 9 matches played interstate, while they have lost 9 of their last 11 as a road outsider. They are 12-10 ATS, with a 4-3 cover record as a road dog and have covered in 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Titans. In TMP’s they are 12-10 Over, with 5 of their last 10 topping 50, while 4 of the 6 clashes with the Titans played on the Gold Coast have also totaled 50 or more. In 11 of the last 13 meetings, the winning margin has been by 13+, while the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 7th minute in 5 of the last 6 clashes.

Preview

Excellent game but tricky match up. Panthers on a positive roll but beating weak opponents, now assured of top 8 spot do they mentally relax? Titans have also had a couple of similar soft wins, best spine and team they have fielded this yr, must win game to play finals. Slight lean to the home teams desperation.

More to follow.


Sharks vs Roosters

-5.5 Sharks

 

Stats

Super Saturday draws to a close when the inform Roosters travel to the shire to take on the out of from Sharks. The Sharks have had the Roosters measure in recent seasons, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters and they will be hoping that trend continues as they look to end a 3 game losing streak. Cronulla’s 15 game winning run is now a distant memory, as is their 10 weeks on top of the ladder and they are now a real risk of missing a top 2 finish and a home Final. Their attack has been stuttering and they haven’t scored more than 3 tries in their last 4 matches, while they have conceded 30 points or more in 2 of their last 3. Despite their 3 losses, they still have the 2nd best attack and the 3rd best defence in the competition. They are 12-10 ATS but have failed to cover in their last 4, while they have also failed to cover in 6 of their last 8 as a home favourite. They are 12-10 Under in TMP’s, with a 7-4 Under record at home, while they are 12-7 Under since 2015 as a home favourite. The Roosters have won 3 of their last 4 and one wonders where their current form has been all season. They have averaged more than 28 points a game over the last month and conceded 8 points per game less than they had prior to that point. They have now moved to 14th on the ladder and are ranked 12th in both attack and defence. The Tri-Colours are 9-13 ATS and have covered in 3 of their last 4, but have failed to cover in the previous 6 clashes with the Sharks. In TMP’s they are 15-7 in favour of the Overs and have had Overs results in 6 of their last 8, while 7 of the last 9 meetings with Cronulla at Shark Park have totaled 31 or less.

Preview

Sharks have the shakes, they are a risk here, but going with them getting back home and digging deep. Not straight forward.

More to follow


Warriors vs Tigers

-9.5 Warriors

 

Stats

The fate of both of these sides lies in the hands of the Titans on Saturday afternoon and should they beat the Panthers, the Warriors and Tigers will have little to play for as both sides have terrible differentials when compared to that of the Panthers. Honours have been shared equally from the 26 matches played between the Warriors and Tigers, while the Warriors hold a slight edge at Mt Smart Stadium, winning 6 of the 10 match ups. The Warriors had won 3 straight before the Tigers won the last 2, including an upset result when they last met in Round 1. The Warriors have lost back to back matches leading into this game, conceding a combined total of 75 points, but they have won 4 of their last 5 at home, including 3 of their last 4 as a starting favourite. They remain in 9th spot, with an attack that ranks 9th and a defence that rates 14th. The Warriors are 10-12 ATS and have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 at home as a favourite. They are 12-10 Over in TMP’s, while 7 of their last 9 have finished Unders. Meetings with the Tigers have generally been high scoring affairs, with the last 4 totaling 54 or more, while 11 of the last 14 have topped 42. The Warriors have won 5 of 6 with a half time lead this season, but have lost 11 of 13 when trailing at the break. Like the Warriors, the Tigers also come into this match off the back of 2 straight losses but the Tigers are on the road where they have won only 7 of their last 25 and 3 of their last 13 when playing in matches classed as distant away or interstate. They have also won only 3 of their last 14 as a road dog. The Tigers sit 1 spot below the Warriors in 10th and haven’t featured in the Top 8 since the opening 3 Rounds. They rank 10th in attack, while their defence is the 2nd worst in the NRL, conceding an average of 24 points a game. The Tigers are 12-10 ATS and have covered in only 3 of their last 10 on the road with a double digit advantage. In TMP’s they are 12-10 Over, while they are 20-10 Over since 2014 as a road dog and 9-3 Over since 2013 in distant away games. A Tigers try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of the last 10 clashes with the Warriors.

Preview

Two impostors, Warriors at home but we know what they are like as 10 point expected favs. Tigers look mentally shot with Tedesco missing.

Just not a game I want to spend much time on, the Warriors still now have something to play for and could potentially grab 8th spot if they can win this and next week, but their record late each yr when such a carrot is dangled in front of them is disgraceful. As we know, when under expectation they more often than not fail. They have one of their strongest team lists here, and meet a Tigers team further riddled with key injury outs.

Warriors should win, all the numbers point to a high scoring game and overs, but I am just not convinced.


Knights vs Rabbits

-14.5 Knights

 

Stats

The final home game of the season for the Knights which makes it Old Boys weekend where they have traditionally been very good, winning 7 of the last 11, but with just 1 win all season and facing a resurgent Rabbitohs side, they look up against it here. They have lost their last 6 straight against the Rabbitohs, with the last 3 defeats all being by 40 points or more, while their last 5 losses have all been by a margin of 13+, with an average losing margin of 24.4. They have lost 16 in a row and another loss this week will move them into outright 7th on the all-time list for consecutive games lost. The Knights have the worst attacking and defensive records in the competition by some margin and they have conceded more than 100 tries for the 3rd season in a row. Newcastle is 8-14 ATS and has failed to cover in 5 of their last 6, while they have covered in only 5 of 16 this season with a double digit advantage. In TMP’s they are 12-10 Over, but have had Unders results in 4 of their last 6, while 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Bunnies have all finished Over. The Knights have conceded the 1 st try in 13 of their last 14 and have failed to score more than 6 1st points in their last 6 matches. Souths have won 2 in a row and will be looking for 3 straight victories for the 1st time this season. They remain in 13th spot and the best they can finish is 11th, which will be their lowest finish since 2008. The Rabbits have a 9- 13 record ATS but they have covered in their last 3 straight, while they have easily covered in their last 3 against the Knights. They have a TMP record of 13-9 in favour of the Overs, but have had Unders results in 5 of their last 7, while 6 of their last 7 against a bottom 8 opponent have all finished Over. Souths have won 6 of 7 this season with a half time lead and only once in their last 6 against the Knights have they not led at the break. The Rabbitohs have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in the last 6 matches against the Knights who have scored 6 or less 2nd half points in 16 of their 22 matches. In FTS calculations, consider Alex Johnston as has scored 7 tries in his 3 matches against the Knights. The home side has lost the last 6 matches with Henry Perenara in charge.

Preview

Knights infamous Old Boys Day game where they can pull motivation and effort out of their backside, but gee they have major injury and form issues. By my count they will have at least 8 play outs for this game and be blooding another youngster with the key loss of Ross. They are no conceding an average of 34 points per game, even when playing at home this is still 32 pts, a terribly meek offering in defence.

Rabbits face their 3rd away game in 4 weeks and off Monday night but their form through these last 3 games reads very well with a win over Sharks, a flogging (away) over the Warriors and a late golden point loss (away) to the Storm. Having had their all but best team list back on deck McGuire looks to have also got their attitude back and we have now seen consistent smart efforts from them week in week out with them clearly determined to finish the season strongly.

While it might well be Old Boys day for the Knights I just can’t see how this young and damaged list can hold things together for longer than 20 minutes to compete. They have been showing signs each week now of falling apart, the Titans were scrappy at best last week yet still managed a 20 point margin and the Rabbits recent record against them has been very commanding winning their last 3 H2H by 40 point margins.

I want to be against the Knights, I have been somewhat conservative in marking this -14.5, could very easily have been much closer to -20, and I want to play the line.

Bet 2 units Rabbits -12.0 $1.93 Pinnacle


Eels vs Dragons

-7.5 Eels

 

Stats

The final ever game of MNF (at least until the next TV deal) sees the Parramatta Eels host the Dragons at Pirtek Stadium in a game that will have no bearing on the Top 8. There has been little between these sides over the years, with both sides recording 14 wins to go with 2 draws, while the Eels have a very good record at Pirtek Stadium, winning 9 of the 13 clashes. It’s the final home game of the season for the Eels who have won their last 3 matches against the Dragons. They have been poor at their traditional home ground in 2016 though, winning only 3 of 7, but that’s a better result than the Dragons record on the road, as they have won only 2 of 11. The Dragons have also failed to win at Pirtek Stadium since Round 1 of the 2010 season. The Eels have now dropped to 15th, losing 5 of their last 6 and they have conceded 22 points or more in all of those losses. They are 13-9 ATS and have covered in 7 of their last 10, but have covered in only 2 of their last 8 at Pirtek Stadium as a favourite. In TMP’s they are 13-9 Under, with an 8-3 Under record at home, while 11 of the previous 13 clashes with the Dragons have totaled 37 or less. The Dragons have lost 6 of their last 7 and will miss out on a spot in the finals for the 4th time in 5 years. They remain in 11th spot and haven’t sat higher than 8th all season. The Dragons rank 10th in attack, while both their defence and differential are the 2nd worst in the NRL. They have won 3 of 8 against sides ranked in the bottom half of the ladder and have lost the last 3 of those by a margin of 13+. In their last 7 matches they have averaged only 4 1st half points with a combined total of just 4 1st half tries. The Dragons are split evenly ATS, with an 11-11 record and are 4-7 when covering on the road, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 8 away from home with a start of 6 points or less. For the 5th time in the last 6 seasons, the Dragons have again been an Unders side and are 14-8 Under in 2016 with 2 Rounds to go, while 8 of their last 10 Monday night games have also finished Under. The Dragons will be pleased to see MNF come to an end as they have lost 11 of their last 12 Monday night fixtures.

Preview

Three important team changes for the Eels here Beau Scott, Brad Takairangi and Tepai Moeroa named as key ins, while  the Dragons drop Marshall and have Packer and Taane Milne as outs. The form line for either in not pretty with the Eels winning just 1 of their last 5 while the Dragons have won just 1 of their last 7, worse still the useless Dragons attack with them being held to 12 points of less in each of those 6 defeats.

The Dragons are a pathetic rabble, from Board to CEO to Coach, have nothing to play for and have been marking time as they slide down the ladder through recent months. The Eels have also had a season from hell but although losing have been committed and putting in each week, and it should be noted led the Raiders 18-4 in Canberra last week. With key players ins, back at home and an opportunity to put up a win in front of their die hard supporters I think they get their chance to win again.

Bet 2 units Eels -4.5 $1.91 William Hill


 

 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 25

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 22

 

Bet 3 units West Coast-Hawthorn under 170.5  $1.91 Bet365 BB

Bet 2 units GWS-Fremantle over 169.5 $1.91 Bet365

Bet 2 units Brisbane-Geelong over 192.5 $1.91 Bet365

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Hawthorn, Sydney, St Kilda, GWS, Collingwood, Adelaide, Melbourne, Geelong, Western Bulldogs


Game Previews

 

West Coast v Hawthorn

The Eagles have been off the pace all season, but have they hit their straps at the right time? They get their chance to show that in a rematch of last year’s Qualifying Final at this venue. I still lean slightly towards the Hawks on the strength of their mental edge over the Eagles through convincing victories in the last two clashes. With both teams off a six day back up and a potential high stakes arm wrestle on the cards, my interest lies in the under betting play. The Eagles have been a strong under side this season going under in 14 of their 20 matches. They have also gone under in 17 of their last 25 night matches. Further, Hawthorn are no longer a prolific scoring team and their last five matches have yielded 153, 191, 129, 158 and 145 points. Four of the last five head to head clashes have gone under the 170.5 line we recommended to subscribers on Wednesday morning. The market agrees with a number of bookies moving 3-4 points towards the under since then.

Bet 3 units West Coast-Hawthorn under 170.5 $1.91 Bet365 BB


GWS v Fremantle

This match shapes a typical late season affair between a home outfit sharpening its attack for the finals and a cellar dweller on the road and looking for the finish line. Freo have been a prolific scoring team at home and the twilight timeslot should not impede their scoring. The market appears to have been set on the basis of Freo’s long term reputation as a defensive minded ‘unders’ team. However, this is not reflected in recent form with the last four Freo matches yielding 212, 174, 184 and 186 points. Three of the last four head to head clashes have also gone over the 169.5 line we recommended to our subscribers on Wednesday morning. The market agrees and has moved a massive 10-12 points towards the over since then.

Bet 2 units GWS-Fremantle over 169.5 $1.91 Bet365


Brisbane-Geelong

Like GWS v Freo, this match shapes as a high scoring late season affair in fine conditions. Geelong has been an unders side this season, but I expect their forward line to grab a lot of marks against the under manned Lions defence and have a tune up prior to the finals. With an eight day break and back to back home games, the Lions are more than capable of racking up 70-80 points to ensure a high scoring affair. The Lions have gone over in 16 out of 20 games this season with the last five matches yielding totals of 194, 216, 252, 219 and 213 points. The market agrees and has moved four points towards the over since we recommended our subscribers bet over 192.5 on Wednesday morning.

Bet 2 units Brisbane-Geelong over 192.5 $1.91 Bet365


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


North Melbourne v Sydney – The Swans have covered the line in 30 of their last 44 day matches while the Kangas have covered the line in 28 of their last 41 matches with seven or more days between games. Nonetheless, I lean towards the Swans covering.


Richmond v St Kilda – Tigers have gone under the total match score line in 18 of their last 26 games off a six day break and with wet weather on the horizon, this does shape as an ‘under’ game. However, it is also a late season clash between two outfits out of finals contention and defence can be loose in such matches.


Collingwood v Gold Coast – Pies have gone under in 36 of their last 53 at night. Again, it is also a late season clash between two outfits out of finals contention and defence can be loose in such matches. Lean towards the over.


Port Adelaide v Adelaide – Port looked awful last weekend and the Crows racked up their third cricket score on the trot.  However, I’m not keen to bet against Port in a Showdown and also note that they have covered the line in 21 of their last 31 night games.


Carlton v Melbourne – It’s hard to go past the streaking Dees to cover against the slumping Blues. Will consider a bet on this match after the outcome of the North Melbourne-Sydney clash.


Essendon v Western Bulldogs – Dons have gone under in 32 of their last 46 games as a home dog. Again, it is also a late season clash between two outfits out of finals contention and defence can be loose in such matches. Lean towards the over.


 

 


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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 24

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 24

 

MrG provides NRL Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 24 2016 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-3.5 Broncos vs Bulldogs

-9.5 Panthers vs Tigers

+16.5 Knights vs Titans

+6.5 Eagles vs Storm

-11.5 Cowboys vs Warriors

-13.5 Raiders vs Eels

-6.5 Roosters vs Dragons

+8.5 Rabbits vs Sharks

 


NRL Round 24 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Titans -13.5 $1.94 CrownBet

Bet 1 unit Eagles H2H $3.80 Sportsbet / William Hill

Bet 2 units Eagles +10.5 Sportsbet / William Hill

Bet 2 units Raiders-Eels over 42.5 $1.90 Topsport / Bet365 BB

Bet 1 unit Dragons +6.5 $1.95 Topsport

Bet 2 units Rabbits-Sharks under 41.5 Unibet $2.00 / Topsport

 

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Bulldogs, Panthers, Titans, Storm, Cowboys, Raiders, Roosters, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Broncos vs Bulldogs

-3.5 Broncos

Stats

Top 6 clash kicks off Round 23 when the Broncos host the Bulldogs from Suncorp Stadium. Both sides have had plenty of ups and downs throughout 2016, but they are 2 of only 4 sides that haven’t been positioned out of the Top 8 all season. The Bulldogs were comprehensive winners when they last met in Round 16 and a win this week will make it both 3 in a row and 2 wins in a season over the Broncos for the 1st time since 2004. It’s the final away game of the regular season for Canterbury who has won 8 of their 11 away games and they have also won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium. The Dogs have won 7 of their last 8 but have been a 50/50 proposition against their Top 8 counterparts, winning 4 of 8, while their last win over Brisbane is their only win over a Top 8 side since Round 9. The Bulldogs remain 4th on the ladder, while they rank 7th in attack and 4th in defence, giving them a 94 point differential that rates 5th. They are a poor 7-14 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 6 straight, while they have also failed to cover in their last 3 on the road when getting a start. In TMP’s they are 11-10 Under, including their last 4 straight, while 7 of the last 9 clashes with the Broncos have also finished Unders, with only 2 of them topping 38. The Dogs have conceded the 1st try of the match in 6 of their last 8, while they have conceded 3 tries or more in 9 of their last 11. Brisbane has now recorded back to back wins but there are still plenty of questions marks over their form as they have lost 5 of their last 6 against sides currently in the Top 8, conceding and average of almost 40 points per game in the last 3 of those. However, they are at home for the 2nd week in a row with a full week to prepare, in front of a big crowd and now with some momentum so it’s now or never. They are 9-12 ATS and have covered in only 1 of their last 5 at Suncorp Stadium, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 9 against sides currently in the Top 8. Brisbane is 11-10 Over in TMP’s, with only 1 of their last 9 failing to top 40. A Broncos try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 against the Dogs, while they have scored the last try of the match in 6 of the previous 7 clashes. Corey Oates secured his 2nd hat trick of the season last week and he has been the 1st try scorer of the match in the last 2 clashes with the Bulldogs.

Preview

Very even match up for mine, and two teams that are difficult to get a quality handle on the strength of their form or consistency. The Broncos have won their last two, but that is glossed over somewhat by the fact that they got the Dragons on a bog wet track and then an ordinary Eels side who perform very poorly on distant away games. Yes we saw some positive glimpses last week, but this will be a very different forward, muscle and defensive opponent. The Bulldogs equally are difficult to read, they were there to be beaten last week, but somehow they just keep finding ways to win, and notably are normally good at lifting for the key games, and this is one of them. They whacked the Broncos up the middle earlier this yr, physically gave them a real work over and then dominated the game, and I lean to something similar unfolding here. Eastwood is a key in, he plays a very important role in this side, especially physically, and then they have size, strength and depth on the bench.

Slight lean to Bulldogs, they will be focused on a power muscle game through the middle, and I think they have a key edge in the size and top grade quality of their bench. Not a game I want to play in, if I was to look for an angle it would be total points under.


Panthers vs Tigers

-9.5 Panthers

Stats

The Tigers finals aspirations will go on the line when they travel to Pepper Stadium to take on a resurgent Panthers outfit. They do have a very good recent record over the Panthers in their favour, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings, including the last 3 match ups at Pepper Stadium, but it’s a tough run home for the Tigers who travel to Auckland after this match, before taking on the Raiders in the final Round. Their 3 game winning run came to a halt last week against the Titans and they will also be without Tedesco for the remainder of the season after he suffered a broken jaw. They are 4 & 6 on the road this season, while they have lost 10 of their last 13 away games when starting as an outsider. The Tigers are 10th on the ladder, with the 10th ranked attack, while they are 13th in defence, giving them a differential of -48 that rates 12th . They have won 10 of 13 this season when going to half time with a lead, while they have lost 7 from 7 when trailing at the break. The Tigers are 12-9 ATS, including covering in 6 of their last 7, while they have also covered in 5 of their last 6 as a road dog. In TMP’s they are 11-10 in favour of the Overs, but their last 4 have all finished Under, with none of them finishing higher than 40. Either Nofoaluma (2) or Naiqama (3) have been the Tigers 1st try scorer in the Tigers last 5 matches. The Panthers have won 4 of their last 5 and their demolition job on the Knights last week ensured they were able to remain in 7th spot on the ladder. They have won 8 of their last 10 against sides ranked in the bottom half of the ladder, while they have also won 5 of 7 this year when starting as a home favourite. The Panthers rank 6th in attack and 8th in defence, while their 39 point differential rates 7th. They are 11-10 ATS but have covered in only 1 of their last 6 at Pepper Stadium. Penrith are 11-10 Over in TMP’s, with 6 of their last 8 against the bottom 8 sides finishing Overs. Josh Mansour is now the Panthers leading try scorer with 13 and he has scored 10 tries from his last 10 appearances for Penrith. Night matches with Jared Maxwell in charge are 10-1 Under this season.

Preview


Knights vs Titans

+16.5 Knights

Stats

It’s a must win game for the Titans when they travel to Hunter Stadium to take on the Knights as they look to keep their Finals aspirations alive. With their final 2 games against sides currently in the Top 8, a win against the Knights will see the pressure ease a little as they will only need to win 1 of their remaining 2 to ensure a Finals birth for the 1st time since 2010. The Knights hold a 9-6 all time advantage over the Titans and have won 4 of the last 6 meetings, while wins at Hunter Stadium have been split evenly since 2010, with both sides recording 3 wins a piece. The Titans come into this match with just 1 loss from their last 5 matches, including wins in their last 2 on the road and will be looking to record consecutive wins over the Knights for the 1st time in their history. They are currently in 8th spot, with an attack that ranks 9th and a defence ranking of 10th. They are the best cover side in the NRL, with a 15-6 ATS record but they are in unfamiliar territory this week, starting as a road favourite for only the 4th time in 3 seasons. In TMP’s they are 11-10 in favour of the Under, while 5 of the last 7 clashes with Newcastle have also finished Under. The Titans have won 7 from 7 this season with a half time lead and they have never lost to the Knights when leading at the break. Anthony Don is the Titans leading try scorer with 12 and he has scored a try in his last 5 appearances, while he has scored 4 tries in his last 4 games against the Knights, 2 of them as the 1st try scorer of the match. The Knights have now lost a club record 15 in a row and another loss this week will equal the longest losing streak by any team since 1993. Their last 4 defeats have all been by a margin of 13+, while they conceded the most 2nd half points of any side this season in last week’s loss to the Panthers, conceding 36 unanswered points after going to half time at 6 all. Newcastle is 8-13 ATS and has covered in only 3 of 6 at home with a double digit advantage in 2016. They are 12-9 Over in TMP’s, with 9 of their 11 previous matches against the Top 8 totaling 40 or more. The Knights have conceded the 1st try of the match in 12 of their last 13 and in their last 5 they haven’t scored more than 6 1st half points. In 5 of the last 6 meetings, the winning margin has been by 13+, while only once in the 15 previous encounters has the half time leader been run down.

Preview

Knights have now lost their last 15 straight and conceded all but 30 points or more at their last 4 games, the end of season can’t come quick enough for them. They rolled over meekly in the 2nd 40 last week, and while Brown will be into them to stick to the task for 80 this week if the Titans can crack them a few times and take any spirit out of them quickly then this should be one way traffic again. Knights also have further key outs with Mullen and Sione Mata’utia.

Titans got themselves back on the board with a tough late away win last week and still remain in finals contention. Roberts looks like playing and Ash Tayor resting, still a strong line up and halves combination and I’d suggest against a weaker defensive offering Hayne can have a big influence here.

I have the Titans rated slightly higher than the Panthers at this stage of the season, the Panthers were suited with the game style last week and did a number on their opponent, I think the Titans measure up with a similar position here and am keen to be with them to cover the line.

Bet 2 units Titans -13.5 $1.94 CrownBet


Eagles vs Storm

+6.5 Eagles

Stats

Another chapter to one of the great modern day rivalries will be written when the Sea Eagles host the Storm at Brookvale Oval. The Storm are on a short 5 day turn around and are on the road for the 2nd week in a row after the Raiders bashed the ladder leaders from pillar to post on Monday night and it could be more of the same here with a Manly side looking to cause as much damage as they can to those who are Finals bound. It’s more than 12 months since these sides last met when the Sea Eagles made it back to back wins to give them an opportunity this week to make it 3 straight for the 1st time in 10 years. There has been little between these sides since the 2008 Grand Final, with both sides recording 7 wins each, to go with the 1 draw, while 5 of the last 6 encounters have been decided by 3 points or less. Manly come into this match in 11th spot and will miss the Top 8 for the 2nd year in a row, they also rank 11th in both attack and defence. They had won 4 straight before suffering narrow losses in their last 2, a 1 point loss to the Eels and a Golden Point loss to the Dogs which all but ended any slim Finals chances they were clinging to. Manly is 10-11 ATS and have covered in 6 of their last 7, including their last 3 home games, while they have also covered in the last 3 clashes with Melbourne. They are 12-9 Under in TMP’s, with 4 of their last 5 finishing that way. The Sea Eagles have won 6 of 8 with a half time lead, but have lost 10 of 12 when trailing at the break. Manly has scored the opening points of the match in 10 of the last 12 clashes with the Storm who have conceded 1st points in their last 4 straight. Last week’s loss will have taken plenty out of the Storm, who have lost 9 of their last 11 in leg 2 of back to back away games since 2012. They conceded more than 20 points for the 1st time this season, while it was their fewest points in attack since Round 4. Melbourne still remains at the top of the ladder and are still the Number 1 ranked defensive side, while they are 5th in attack. The Storm are 11-10 ATS, with a 6-5 cover record on the road, but have failed to cover in their last 4 away games when laying more than a converted try. In TMP’s they are the Number 1 Unders side, with a 16-5 result, including their last 5 straight, none of which have topped 36. Only once in the last 6 clashes with Manly have Melbourne led at half time and they have also trailed at the break in their last 6 matches at Brookvale Oval.

Preview

While the Eagles are not rolled gold good things here they are certainly a live chance and I want to be with the risk as I think they get a few major things in their favour and then get their opponent on possibly the right week. Eagles should well have won their last two, they didn’t but I like the fact that they are competing, are up for the contest and giving it their best shot, plus those two positive efforts were on the road and they now get a home gig at a venue to advantage (Brookvale). Fine mine we then add in the fact to my eye the Storm look very venerable here, they were physically whacked last night, really worked over and then have a short turn around of 5 days into another away game into Sydney. This is a stand out issue for mine, physically being whacked and worked over last night as they were and then having to come up quickly into short turn around and away game. Without factoring in the physical confrontation and with a couple of Eagles outs I still only handicap this at 6.5 / 8 pts. Storm can win, they are top of the table, but as we saw last night not infallible but a decent risk, Eagles form is ok, Brookvale huge advantage, I want to be with the risk.

Bet 1 unit Eagles H2H $3.80 Sportsbet / William Hill

Bet 2 units Eagles +10.5 Sportsbet / William Hill


Cowboys vs Warriors

-11.5 Cowboys

Stats

The final match on Super Saturday sees the Cowboys return home where they will take on the Warriors. The Cowboys have won the last 2 meetings with the Warriors and will be looking to make it 3 straight for the 1st time since 2008 and in the process snap a 3 game losing streak that has seen them drop from 3rd to 5th. Wins have been shared equally since 2009 with both sides recording 5 wins a piece, while wins in Townsville have been hard to come by for the Warriors, who have won only 1 of their last 10 matches at 1300SMILES Stadium since 2003. The Cowboys will be looking to get things back on track after a couple of tired looking efforts on the road. They have won 9 of 10 at home this season with their only blemish their last start against the Storm and they haven’t lost consecutive home games since Round 2 last year. Despite failing to score more than 14 points in 4 of their last 5, North Queensland are still ranked 2nd in attack, while their defence and differential both rank 3rd They are 10-11 ATS and have covered in only 3 of their last 12, but have covered in 5 of their last 6 at home when laying a double digit start. In TMP’s they are 13-8 Under, with their last 6 straight finishing that way, while they are split evenly at home with a 5-5 result. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in 9 of their 10 home games, while Antonio Winterstein has been the Cowboys 1st try scorer in 3 of their last 4 at home. The Warriors are coming off their 3rd biggest loss of the season, which was against a Rabbitohs side that had lost 9 in a row. They have won only 4 of 11 as the away side this season, while they have won only 2 of 7 on the road against the Top 8. The Warriors have now dropped out of the Top 8 after last week’s loss with the 8th ranked attack, while their defence is ranked 13th. Like the Cowboys, the Warriors are 10-11 ATS and they have covered in 4 of their last 5 away games. They are 12-9 Under in TMP’s, with 6 of their last 8 finishing that way, while they have had Unders results in 5 of their last 6 on the road with a start of more than a converted try. A Warriors try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 3 clashes with the Cowboys, while Solomone Kata has scored a double in his last 2 matches. In 8 of the last 9 night matches refereed by Ashley Klein, the TMP’s have finished Overs.

Preview

Two teams coming of poor performances I’m happy to just be watching here. Everything suggests the Cowboys should win, and likely cover, they have a stunning home track record return home off 2 away games and surely improve off two losses. The issues are a little hard to read at present, my guess is they have been playing on some heavy legs after a number of weeks of heavy fitness work and they’ll start to turn this around into the final few weeks and the start of the finals, but time will tell.

The Warriors, well what does one say. When no expectation two weeks ago they aim up for an away win over the Titans, a good strong tough win, yet a week later when short priced favs back at home against a side who had lost their prior 9 straight they roll over pathetically and concede 41 points with ease. Back into a game with little expectation if would not surprise to see them have a go, but gee they are hard to trust.

Cowboys back at home to win, but I just want to watch what unfolds and what teh quality of play and execution from both sides looks like.


Raiders vs Eels

-13.5 Raiders

Stats

After knocking over the top 2 sides in their last 2 matches, the Raiders will play their final home game of the regular season against a Parramatta side that has finally wilted in what has been a very difficult year. Canberra are surging towards the Finals Series, with 10 wins from their last 11 matches, while a win over the Eels will make it 8 consecutive wins for the 1st time in 21 years. The Raiders were outstanding on Monday night and anything near that performance again will seem them winning comfortably but they will have to do it without Josh Hodgson who will miss his 1st game of the season and he has been an integral part of their success. Canberra has won 6 of their last 8 matches against the Eels and 9 of the last 10 clashes at GIO Stadium, with the Eels recording just 1 win at the ground in 15 years. The Raiders have won their last 7 straight as a starting favourite, while they have won their last 5 against sides currently in the bottom 8. Canberra remain in 3rd spot for the 3rd week in a row with the best attacking record in the NRL, averaging almost 27 points a game, while they are ranked 6th defensively with a 166 point differential that ranks 4th. They are 14-7 ATS and have covered in 11 of their last 14, including 5 of their last 7 at home, but they have failed to cover in 5 of their last 7 when laying a start of more than a converted try. In TMP’s they continue to be the Number 1 Overs side in the comp, producing a 15-6 result, with 9 of those coming from their last 11 matches. The Raiders are also a big Overs side in day games, going 11-2 Over in 2016, with a 30-10 record in day games since 2014, while the last 3 clashes with the Eels have also finished Over. A Raiders try has been the 1st scoring play in 9 of the previous 11 meetings with the Eels. The Eels have now lost 4 of their last 5 and their last 4 straight away from home, in a year that promised so much, they will have little to show for what has been an amazing effort. From Rounds 4 to 17 they were never out of the Top 8 but since being stripped of their 12 competition points that are now languishing in 14th spot. Their unadjusted attack and defence rankings are 14th and 5th but they have conceded an average of 24 points a game since Round 18. The Eels are 12-9 ATS and have covered in 4 of their last 5 with a double digit advantage. They are 13-8 Under in TMP’s, while 5 of their last 7 day games on the road have finished Over. The 1 st try of the match has been scored by the 5th minute in 4 of the Eels last 5 games.

Preview

I think the likely game profile and circumstances suit plenty of points. The Raiders certainly should win, come off a very impressive win last Monday night (and prior strong form line), stay at home and should be able to open this game up. They should be very buoyed with belief and confidence off these last two wins. They might though be slightly venerable to some let down and more relaxed defence, and so see points either way.

We touched on the Eels distant away record last week, which is very poor, and they compounded quickly into the second half last week. They face a second week on the road into another out of Sydney away game, but they can shift the ball with Radradra back and a possibly more open defensive offering I think they look like having some points to offer. 4 of last 5 away games have all gone over with average totals each over 50 points, while at their last 4 away games they have been conceding 30 odd points.

The Raiders are the best overs team in the comp, especially at home day games, and will come into this off a short turn around and risk of leaking as well as scoring. Looks a perfect game for plenty of points, could well be 50 or so, I like the overs.

Bet 2 units Raiders-Eels over 42.5 $1.90 Topsport / Bet365 BB


Roosters vs Dragons

-6.5 Roosters

Stats

The 2nd and final match of Round 24 featuring 2 last start winners sees the Roosters host the Dragons from Allianz Stadium. Both sides are coming off their best performances of the season but both have little to play for other than bragging rights with both sides out of Finals contention. The Roosters have won 6 of the last 8 clashes with the Dragons, as well as winning 5 straight outside of the traditional Anzac Day clash. They are at home for the 2nd week in a row in what is their final home game of the season as they look for back to back wins for the 1st time in 2016. Both sides have struggled to score points this season and that’s reflected in the rankings, with the Roosters ranked 13th, while the Dragons rank 2nd last, averaging less than 14 points a game. Points have also been at a premium in recent clashes between the 2 sides, with 4 of the last 6 totaling 38 or less. The Roosters are 8-13 ATS but have covered in 5 of their last 7 at home, while they have covered in 7 of their last 10 at home when favoured by more than a converted try. In TMP’s they are 14-7 Over, with 5 of their last 7 totaling 40 or more. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in 7 of the last 8 non Anzac Day clashes with the Dragons who have conceded the 1st try of the match in 5 of their last 6. The Dragons snapped a 5 game losing streak when they defeated the Sharks last week but they are on the road this week where they have only managed 2 wins from 10 matches all season, while they have won only 1 of their last 15 matches as a road outsider. They are 11-10 ATS, but have covered in only 3 of their last 9 away from home. In TMP’s they are 15-7 Under, with a 7-3 Under record on the road, while they are 14-5 Under as a road outsider since 2015. In 5 of the Dragons 10 away games they have failed to score a 1st half try, while they have lost 12 of 13 this season when trailing at half time and they have trailed to Roosters at the break in 7 of the last 9 clashes. The home side has won 14 of the last 17 matches this season when Matt Cecchin has been in charge.

Preview

Another game I don’t like. Right now it’s impossible to draw an conclusion through the last start wins by both sides. The Roosters have been bottom 4, granted they got some key ins back and were at home but then soundly beat the Cowboys. Dragons decide 23 weeks into the season to pull some ball play and shift out of tehir you know where and rattle up 32 points against the team sitting 2nd…. Please, reading tea leaves would be easier than this right now.

Slight lean to the Roosters being at home and that same list as last week, lets see if the Dragons keep the shackles off an have a dip with the ball. Roosters but don’t like the game.

Sunday morning update: My mail is Roosters may have had a heavy dose of the flu through the place this week with numerous players missing training and possibly might not be in their best fitness condition (or some risk) into this game, worth a small play in open game.

Bet 1 unit Dragons +6.5 $1.95 Topsport


Rabbits vs Sharks

+8.5 Rabbits

Stats

Round 24 draws to a close with the Rabbitohs hosting the Sharks from ANZ Stadium. The Rabbitohs shocked all last week in their 1st half demolition of the Warriors, while the Sharks also shocked plenty when they went down to the Dragons. Cronulla has won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Rabbitohs, including a dominant performance in their recent meeting in Week 1 of last year’s Final Series, while wins have been shared equally since 2010, with both sides recording 5 wins each. In 5 of the last 6 meetings the TMP’s have finished Under, while only once in the previous 8 clashes have the TMP’s totaled more than 40. The Rabbitohs ended their 9 game losing run and will be looking for back to back wins for the 1st time since May. They will need to overcome a diabolical record against sides currently in the Top 8 though as they have lost 9 from 9 previously. Souths are 13th on the ladder, with an attack that ranks 12th, while they are the 2nd worst defensive team in the NRL, conceding an average of 24.8 points per game. They are 8-13 ATS and have covered in only 2 of 9 against the Top 8, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 8 at ANZ Stadium where they have lost 7 of their last 8 and conceded 30 or more in their last 4 at the ground. In TMP’s they are 13-8 Over, with 5 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium also finishing Over, while 6 of their last 8 games of MNF have finished Under. Souths have conceded the 1st try of the match in 12 of their last 14 at ANZ Stadium, while they have also conceded the 1st try in 11 of the last 15 clashes with the Sharks. The Sharks are now without a win from their last 3 matches but remain in 2nd spot and in the hunt for the Minor Premiership. They are ranked 2nd in attack and 3rd in defence with a differential that also rates 2nd. Last week’s defeat was their only loss from their past 8 matches against a bottom 8 opponent. Cronulla are 12-9 ATS but have failed to cover in their last 3 straight. In TMP’s they are 11-10 Under and 10-4 Under since 2015 in night games as a starting favourite. The Sharks are undefeated in MNF this year, with 4 wins and a draw. The team to score the 1st points of the match has also gone on to win the last 8 encounters. MNF is 15-7 Under this season, while the home team has failed to cover in 9 of the last 10 matches where Ben Cummins has been in charge.

Preview

I like the Sharks to be winning but also think the markets have the line right. The Rabbits come through losing 9 straight and then touching up the Warriors last week, but I really have my doubts over the strength and quality of that game, the Warriors were just terrible and went on to leak 41 points. They have then come out last night and been comfortably touched up by the Cowboys, again leaking plenty of soft points (and scoring little themselves). They do have an improved list, and return home off two away games, but they are hard to have having lost 9 of 9 against top 8 sides season to date and losing 7 of their last 8 at Homebush. Reynolds is also in doubt.

The Sharks come off another questionable game that I also am happy to forgive, beaten well at Kogarah by Dragons. The Dragons pulled something out of their backside, have reverted to norm Sunday and been flogged by Roosters and Sharks have probably had some excuses through recent weeks. It’s common knowledge that the Origin schedule had shortened them up a little into the last month and that they had not had a “normal” week of team training for some 8 weeks. They looked flat last week, possibly heavy legs, and faded into the second 40. They have now gone into a 3 day out of Sydney team camp to prepare for this game and the weeks ahead and get themselves back on track. I expect that they will, and win.

Being a Monday night game and with expected improvement and focus from the Sharks I like the unders angle here. Prior to their recent lapse their defence has been their strength holding teams to 12 to 14 pts, and winning. Off a 3 game losing streak, into camp, I’m sure rolling their sleeves up and just focusing of tough defence will be their goal (and winning), and their record is very strong at 10 of last 14 night games under when starting fav. The Rabbits have a similar record for Monday night games, with 6 of their last 8 finishing under. Should Reynolds not play then this would only be further enhanced. My workings have the total game points approx 32 to 36, with a Sharks win something like 22-12, think the 40.5 looks a touch too high and want to be with teh under. Rain is also forecast for Monday in Sydney.

Bet 2 units Rabbits-Sharks under 41.5 Unibet $2.00 / Topsport


 

 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 24

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 20

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 20

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 20

 

Bet 1 unit Gold Coast -17.5 $1.93 Bet365

Bet 2 units Geelong-Richmond under 171.5 $1.85 William Hill BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Hawthorn, GWS, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, Geelong, Adelaide


Game Previews

 

Essendon v Gold Coast

The Suns have performed admirably in recent weeks going down narrowly to Melbourne on the road and GWS at home. Prior to that, they proved themselves capable of covering a 20+ line with a 24 point win over Freo and a 26 point win over the Lions. They are getting troops back and are knocking on the door of another win and get their chance to repeat their 61 point win over the Dons in Round 1. The Dons are limping to the finish line and have been beaten by more than 22.5 in 9 of their last 11 matches.  Further, Essendon have only covered 13 of their last 36 matches at Etihad.

Bet 1 unit Gold Coast -17.5 $1.93 Bet365


Geelong v Richmond

The Cats have gone under in 13 of 19 games this season and their defence has been strangling sides in recent weeks, allowing just 34, 78, 55 and 61 in their past four games. With percentage critically important this season, I can’t see the Cats conceding too many cheap points against the Tigers. Four of the Tigers last five games have gone under 171.5 points while four of the last five head to head clashes have also gone under 171.5 points. The market agrees and has moved 1-2 points towards the under since Tuesday morning.

Bet 2 units Geelong-Richmond under 171.5 $1.85 William Hill BB


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Western Bulldogs v Collingwood – Dogs have gone under in 19 of their last 25 off a six day break and the Pies have gone under in 36 of their last 52 night games. Line has been set low however, with Pies going over this line in four of their last five.


Brisbane v Carlton – Lions have gone over in 15 of 19 games this season with their last five yielding 216, 252, 219, 213 and 252. A late season day game between two sides out of finals contention is normally a recipe for a shootout but I’m just wary that Carlton might try and strangle this to grind out a much needed victory.


Hawthorn v North Melbourne – Hawks have covered 10 of their last 11 when playing at MCG next game after a loss but Roos have covered 8 of their last 11 at MCG. Very slight lean to Kangas with start. Danger game!


GWS v West Coast – GWS have covered 23 of their last 33 when starting as favourites but after four weeks on the road and just scraping home late over the Suns. Slight lean to the experienced Eagles with the start, but I’d rather just watch this one.


St Kilda v Sydney – Swans have gone under in 35 of their last 52 at night and with percentage being important, they won’t want to give Saints too many cheap points. Lean to the under.


Fremantle v Adelaide – The Crows should pick up where they left off after racking up cricket scores against Dons and Lions and Freo’s total match scores have crept up also in the last three weeks. Lean to the over.


 

 


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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 23

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 23

 

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 23 2016 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-3.5 Bulldogs vs Eagles

-12.5 Broncos vs Eels

0.0 Tigers vs Titans

-10.5 Warriors vs Rabbits

+8.5 Dragons vs Sharks

+14.5 Knights vs Panthers

+3.5 Raiders vs Storm

 


NRL Round 23 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 1 unit Eagles +6.5 $1.93 Pinnacle

Bet 1 unit Titans H2H $2.01 Pinnacle

Bet 3 units all up Warriors $1.36 x Sharks $1.27 x Panthers $1.23 / $2.12 Pinnacle BB

Bet 3 units Panthers -11.5 $1.93 Pinnacle

With our all up now dead and -11.5 or -12.0 still available for Panthers today I am having 1 additional unit bet on that option.

 

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Eagles, Broncos, Titans, Warriors, Sharks, Panthers, Cowboys, Storm


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Bulldogs vs Eagles

-3.5 Bulldogs

Stats

Round 23 gets underway with 2 arch enemies adding another chapter to their recent rivalry when the Dogs host the Sea Eagles at ANZ Stadium. The Bulldogs have a dominant recent record over Manly, having won the last 5 straight and 8 of the last 10, which includes 3 of the last 4 meetings at ANZ Stadium. More often than not, these clashes have been closely fought, low scoring contests in recent years, with 7 of the last 11 matches decided by single figures, while only 2 of the previous 13 clashes have topped 44 points, with 8 of the last 11 meetings totaling less than 40. The Bulldogs come into this match with 6 wins from their last 7 games, which sees them move back into the Top 4. They are 5th in both attack and defence rankings while their 90 point differential also rates 5th. They have won 9 of their last 10 matches against a bottom 8 opponent and they have also won 6 of their last 7 games played at ANZ Stadium. Only once in their last 15 matches have the Dogs trailed at half time and they have also led at the break in the last 5 clashes with Manly. The Dogs have been a losing proposition ATS, producing a 7-13 result and have failed to cover in their last 5 straight. Canterbury is split evenly in TMP’s, with a 10-10 result, which has seen them go Over in 7 straight prior to going Under in their last 3, while 5 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium have all finished Over. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 9 of the last 11 clashes with the Sea Eagles while the 1st try of the match has not been scored until after the 7th minute in 8 of the last 10 meetings. Curtis Rona has scored 22 tries from 25 games at ANZ Stadium, but has failed to score in 2 of his last 3 at the ground. The Sea Eagles 4 game winning run came to an end last week and with that, it would appear so too did their chances of making the Top 8. They have lost 6 of 7 this season against the Top 6 sides and 3 of their last 4 matches are against sides currently sitting in the Top 4. Manly has lost 5 of their last 6 away games, 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog and they haven’t won at ANZ Stadium since losing the 2013 Grand Final. The Sea Eagles have been very good front runners, winning 6 of 8 with a half time lead, but have lost 9 of 11 when trailing at the break. Manly’s attack and differential both match their overall position of 11th, while their defence ranks 9th . They are 9-11 ATS but have covered in 5 of their last 6 and in 5 of their last 7 as a road outsider. In TMP’s they are 11-9 Under, with a 5-2 Under record on the road. Jorge Taufua has scored 5 tries from his last 5 games against the Bulldogs and is Manly’s leading try scorer with 10 tries from 14 appearances.

Preview

While the Bulldogs do have a healthy recent record over their opponent I just don’t like their form at present and think they a significant risk here. Legless wins over the Knights and Dragons have been very poor on quality formine. The Eagles are desperate,must win to stay in anyway touch with the finals, they get Lyon back and come through a formline at least similar to the Bulldogs. Looks a close tussle, far closer I think than the markets have it, I  want to be with the desperation of the Eagles and I think they can cause an upset and win outright.

Bet 1 unit Eagles +6.5 $1.93 Pinnacle


Broncos vs Eels

-12.5 Broncos

Stats

Friday night regulars, the Broncos, play host to the Parramatta Eels from Suncorp Stadium in 1 of only 2 matches this Round featuring 2 last start winners. Brisbane returned to the winners circle last week and will be looking for back to back wins for the 1st time since Round 8 and in the process, build some much needed momentum as they head towards the Finals. The Broncos have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Eels but will need to be wary as Parramatta has won 3 of the previous 5 meetings at Suncorp Stadium. Recent meetings have been close encounters with 6 of the last 8 matches decided by a margin of 1-12 points. After winning 6 straight at Suncorp Stadium, the Broncos have now lost 3 of their last 4 at the ground but they are unbeaten against sides currently ranked in the bottom 4, winning 6 from 6. Win or lose, it’s likely Brisbane will remain in 6th spot for the 6th week in a row, while their attack, defence and differential are all ranked 6th also. They are 8-12 ATS and have failed to cover in 8 of their last 9, including their last 4 when laying a double digit start. In TMP’s they are split evenly, producing a 10-10 result, while 6 of their last 8 have finished Overs. Brisbane has won 11 of 13 this season when going to half time with a lead, but have lost 7 from 7 when trailing at the break, while the half time leader has won 8 of the last 9 clashes between the Broncos and Eels. The Eels ended a 3 game losing streak last week and like the Broncos, will also be looking for back to back wins, only theirs will be for the 1st time since having their 12 competition points deducted. They have lost 10 of their last 12 interstate matches and have covered a line in only 2 of those, while 10 of them have finished Overs in TMP’s. Parramatta is now 12th and have the same ranking in attack, while their defence ranks 4th, giving them a differential of 17 that rates 7th. They are 12-8 ATS and have covered in 6 of 10 as an underdog, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 on the road with a double digit advantage since 2014. In TMP’s they heavily favour the Unders, producing a 13-7 result, while they are 7-3 Under versus the Top 8 and 7-3 Under as an outsider. The Eels have conceded 18 or more points in 5 of their last 6 and in 3 of their last 4 they have failed to score a 2nd half try. Only once since Round 6 have the Eels not scored a try down their right edge, with Bevan French being the major beneficiary, scoring 11 tries since his debut in Round 12.

Preview

Another trick game with the Broncos very much on trust. The finally broke through for a win last weeks but it was typically a rough grind in wet weather against another struggling opponent in the Dragons, they still have a lot to do to be turning on any sort of quality form toward the finals. With McGuire, Thaiday and Gillett back last week their forward balance and offering was much better, and we did see some glimpses of both Hunt and Milford playing more direct and with a little more confidence. While their recent record at home has not been good they will be better suited this week with a back to normal 7 day home prep and then local support. I think they have, on paper a key advantage in the 7, 6 and 1 roles, and can hurt the Eels down either edge or with their favoured width / spread plays.

The Eels keep on keeping on under all sorts of adversity but their worst offerings have been interstate away games (and is a long term negative over many recent years) with them losing 10 of their last 12 and also failing to cover the line at 10 of the last 12. Beau Scott is a key out in the middle for them, they look likely to get Radradra back, they do have some muscle and grunt in the middle which if they can focus the game there can hurt the Broncos, but I think the likely game style is up against them here.

With a clear weather forecast the key to the Broncos here will be playing the game at some speed, quick roll forwards through the ruck, some off load and second phase play and then be setting up ball shift options. Sides who have moved the Eels big middle around have done so to advantage, they can lack lateral agility in defense, and with their make shift halves and then three quarter pairings be caught out positionally in defence. I think the Broncos win by 3 tries, had I a touch more confidence that they were on the way back or anywhere near their potential then they’d be likely to rack up a number here against a determined but patchwork opponent, but right now I want to see the Broncos step up a gear and show some improved form before taking on a line of 14. If you are looking for a Friday night interest then Broncos to cover would be the play but I will be staying out.


Tigers vs Titans

0.0 Tigers

Stats

Super Saturday kicks off with 2 sides desperate for a win as they battle to secure a spot in the Top 8. The Titans have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Tigers, including a come from behind win when they last met in Round 3. There hasn’t been a lot separating these 2 sides, with the Titans holding a 2 game all time advantage, while wins have been shared equally from the last 14 meetings. It’s the 1st time in 5 years that they have clashed at Campbelltown, with the Tigers winning 2 of the previous 3 meetings. The Titans have dropped from 7th to 10th on the ladder after last week’s loss, with the Panthers, Warriors and Tigers all leap frogging them after they all recorded wins. They rank 10th in defence and 8th in attack and are 1 of only 2 sides out of the Top 8 with a positive differential. They have won 7 of 9 against their bottom 8 counterparts, with the 3 most recent victories all being by a margin of 20 points. The Titans have the lowest average in the comp for the time of the 1st try being scored and in 14 of their 20 matches, including their last 6 straight, the 1st try has been scored by the 7th minute. They remain as the Number 1 ranked side ATS, covering in 14 of their 20 matches and they have covered in their last 6 straight when starting as a road dog, while they have covered in their last 4 meetings with the Tigers. The Titans are split evenly in TMP’s, while 4 of the previous 6 meetings with the Tigers have finished Over. Anthony Don is now the Titans leading try scorer with 10 and he has crossed in his last 4 appearances. The Tigers are on a roll after 3 consecutive wins and will be looking to make it 4 straight for the 1st time since 2012. They have won 3 of their last 4 at Campbelltown but have covered a line in only 2 of their last 7 at the ground. The Tigers are currently 9th and a win this week could see them in the Top 8 for the 1st time since March. Their attack ranks 10th, while they are ranked 13th in defence, giving them a differential of -47 that rates 12th. They are 12-8 ATS and have covered in their last 7 straight, but have covered in only 1 of their last 7 as a home favourite. In TMP’s they are 11-9 in favour of the Overs, while 3 of their last 4 at Campbelltown have totaled 60 or more. James Tedesco is the Tigers leading try scorer with 14 and he has scored 6 tries from his last 6 appearances at Campbelltown.

Preview

Cracking game for the early Saturday arvo game, Tedesco and Moses into Taylor and Hayne! Take my hat off to the Tigers, they rose to the occasion, made defence their foundation and beat the Cowboys fair and square last week at Leichhardt. I expected them to have a crack, but clearly that game had some massive focus and Taylor had really got them up and set for it (and they responded). I have some doubts if not issue now as to how they come up this week off what I think could be some let down.

The Titans come through an opposite course, they had a week of hype and expectation with the arrival of Hayne, at home, big crowd, yet struggled to put it all together and were fairly beaten by the Warriors. It’s also interesting looking at those two games last week, the Cowboys took a shocking record into Leichhardt (1 win in 16 years) and lost, the Titans took a shocking record H2H against the Warriors (losing 10 of prior 11 and last 5 straight at Gold Coast) into their clash and lost. At this level some teams just have bogey grounds or opponents, sometimes better to give the benefit of the doubt with such losses than read too much into them.

Both sides sit next to each other in 9th and 10th spots playing for a semi final position. Campbelltown should be a nice advantage for the Tigers, they have a good record here, but funnily enough the Titans do travel well and in particular have an excellent record as the road underdog and or at the + line as such. The Tigers tho have a poor record as expected home fav and have failed to cover 6 of their last 7 as such, and are shooting for the difficult 4 straight wins. The Titans come through a strong form line, should be more relaxed here, be desperate, and I expect Hayne will be a significant influence.

Excellent contest, lean to Titans to improve and have to win.

Bet 1 unit Titans H2H $2.01 Pinnacle


Warriors vs Rabbits

-10.5 Warriors

Stats

It’s back to back distant away games for the Rabbitohs, after going down to the Storm in Melbourne last week, they now travel to New Zealand to take on the Warriors. The Rabbitohs have won the last 4 clashes with the Warriors but only 1 of those matches was played at Mt Smart Stadium where they have lost 3 of the last 4 clashes. They have now lost 9 in a row and 5 of their last 6 away games, while they are yet to defeat a Top 8 opponent, losing 8 from 8. Last week’s loss to the Storm was a big improvement from what they had been producing and it was the 1st time since Round 6 that they conceded less than 20 points. Souths have now dropped to 13th spot on the ladder, with their attack and differential also ranking 13th, while defensively they rank 14th . They are 7-13 ATS and have covered in only 2 of their last 9, while they have covered in just 3 of their last 15 when getting a start. In TMP’s they are 12-8 Over but have gone Under in 4 of their last 5, while they are 6-1 Under in the weeks following a match against a Top 8 side. A Rabbitohs try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Warriors but they have conceded the 1st try in 4 of their last 5. The Warriors remain in 8th spot with an attack that ranks 7th and a defence that ranks 13th, while they are the only side in the Top 8 with a negative differential. They have won their last 5 matches at Mt Smart Stadium as well as winning 5 of their last 6 matches against sides in the bottom half of the ladder. The Warriors have been involved in plenty of close contests in recent weeks, with 6 of their last 7 decided by single figures, including 4 Golden Point matches. They are 10-10 ATS and have covered in their last 3 straight, but they have covered in only 1 of their last 7 at Mt Smart Stadium when laying a start of more than 6 points. In TMP’s they are 11-9 in favour of the Overs, but 6 of their last 7 have finished Under, while 5 of their last 6 against the bottom 8 have also gone Under. David Fusitua has now scored 11 tries from 14 appearances this season, including 4 tries in his last 3 matches and he has been the 1st try scorer of the match in his last 2 games.

Preview

I think the Warriors win, and likely cover the line but happy to just stick with the H2H result. I think last weeks effort from the Rabbits might well finish them, they have lost 9 straight and are into two road away games back to back. They’ve made a habit of leaking near 30 points most weeks, but last week finally had their strongest line up for sometime which certain;ly improved them. They have lost 5 of their last 6 away games and have a terrible record against top 8 sides.

Warriors come off a good month or so, they were favoured with their run through the Origin period but then could well have won a few more off their run of golden point games but then aimed up with a good quality tough away win over the Titans last week (but were also suited as the underdog). They return back home where they have won their last 5 games but I just don’t want to pull the trigger on a 10 point line off them having been in some many close results of late and a record of only covering 1 of their last 7 at home.


Dragons vs Sharks

+8.5 Dragons

Stats

A local derby closes out Super Saturday and as history shows, there has been little between sides, with the alltime honours shared equally at 18 wins each, while there has been 1 draw. The Sharks have won the 2 most recent encounters and will be looking to make it 3 straight for the 1st time since 2008, while a win will be their 1st at Kogorah since 2007. Generally these clashes have been low scoring affairs and only twice in the last 18 meetings since 2007 have the TMP’s been more than 40 with an average of 31. The Dragons have won 4 of their last 5 at Jubilee Oval but come into this match off the back of 5 consecutive losses. They remain in 12th spot with the 2nd worst attack in the NRL and the 8th ranked defence, while their differential of -165 rates 15th . The Dragons are 10-10 ATS and have covered in 5 of their last 6 against the Top 8 and they have also covered in 5 of their last 7 at Jubilee Oval. In TMP’s they Dragons are 14-6 Under, 11-1 Under versus the Top 8 and a combined 13-5 Under at their suburban home grounds since 2014. The Dragons have scored the opening points of the match in 15 of the last 18 matches against the Sharks. After spending 7 weeks at the top of the ladder, the Sharks now sit 2nd after suffering their 1st loss since Round 3. They still have a 6 point buffer to 3rd and will fight it out with Melbourne for the Minor Premiership. Despite going winless from their last 2 matches, the Sharks still have the 2nd best attacking record in the comp, while the have the 3rd best defense. The Sharks are 12-8 ATS and have covered in 6 of their last 7 on the road, while they have also covered in 4 of their last 5 as a road favourite. They are 11-9 Under in TMP’s with a 7-4 Under record in night games this season. Valentine Holmes has skipped clear as the Sharks leading try scorer with 16 and he has scored 3 tries in his 3 matches against the Dragons. The Sharks are just 1 point shy of scoring twice that of the Dragons and with the return of Michael Ennis the Sharks will be returning to the winners circle.

Preview

Dragons get key ins with Frizelle, Thompson and Dugan and play at Kogarah but get the Sharks for mine the wrong week off their loss to the Raiders. The Dragons have lost 5 in a row, have a nuffy for coach, more often than not can’t score more than two tries and are just plain ugly to watch. But with some key ins and at home they might keep this a little closer, somewhere around where the line has been placed.

The Sharks are 2nd, last weeks loss was due and should do them some good, I think there is an obvious class and execution gap between the two of them, I think the market has it about right. Sharks to win, lets just play through them to be doing that as a winning option in our all up.


Knights vs Panthers

+14.5 Knights

Stats

Cellar dwellers the Knights are at home for the 2nd week in a row where they play host to a Panthers side coming off their biggest win of the season. The Panthers have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Knights, but the Knights have won 4 of the last 5 clashes played at Hunter Stadium. It’s now more than 4 months since the Knights last tasted success and they look set to claim their 1st Wooden Spoon since 2005. They have the worst attack and the worst defence in the comp and half of their 18 losses this year have been by 20 points or more. The Knights are 8-12 ATS with a 5-4 cover record at home, while they have covered in 6 of their last 8 at home with a double digit advantage. They are 11-9 Over in TMP’s, while they are 14-8 Over in day games at home since 2014. Matches where Dave Munro has been a charge have also gone Over at a rate of 75% in 2016, with none of them totaling less than 40. A Knights try has been the 1st scoring play in the previous 5 clashes with the Panthers at Hunter Stadium. The Panthers have won 3 of their last 4 and will be looking to make a late charge with their remaining 4 matches all against sides currently sitting out of the Top 8. They have won 4 of their last 5 against the bottom 8 and 5 of their last 7 as a road favourite, but they have been average on the road in 2016, winning only 4 of 10. Penrith ranks 9th in attack and 11th in defence, giving them a 3 point differential that also ranks 9th. The Panthers are 10- 10 ATS and have covered only 2 of their last 5 as a road favourite. In TMP’s they are also split 10-10, while 5 of their last 6 against the bottom 8 have finished Overs, with all 6 totaling 40 or more. Only once in the last 9 meetings with the Knights have the Panthers led at half time and only twice this season from 10 away games have they led at the break.

Preview

I like the chances of the Panthers here. One of the key factors through these finals rounds prior to finals is sides who look like building form and confidence (Panthers) and those struggling, mentally all but stuffed and just waiting for these weeks to finish and get to Mad Monday and their end of season trip (Knights). The Panthers come off a very positive win last Monday night, and while their opponent was poor the shinning issue here is Cleary and some key players around him having very positive nights and building some key believe and confidence. Things look like they might well be starting to click with their combinations and belief and this last win in weeks ahead might well be marked as that break through turning point.

Young Nathan Cleary has been earmarked for some time as a kid who looked pretty special, well there is certainly no doubt now that he is, he has that rare combination of being tough, can defend for a small body, has time and reads the play exceptionally well – add to that he reeks natural talent, for a guy with such little top grade experience (8 games) to be standing up as he is is just outstanding. Cartwright is a edge backrower playing out of position to suit their current needs, but over the last two weeks he looks like he is now reading his play with and off Cleary much better and shinning on occasions with his ball play role. Peachy and Moylan then slot in around this, then add the list of talent around them all. I still remain critical of Griffin’s inability to coach what is required in the final 20 mtrs try line attack, but right now so much of their play is building from 30 and 40 mtrs out or they have skill well above their poor defending opponents it is not yet the issue.

The Knights have been tough, but reality is they have lost 14 straight and a falling away more quickly now in these back end weeks and conceding 30 quite easily most weeks. They have been put to the sword at a couple of recent away games and for mine now face a side on the up with a game style and attacking / skill focus that could easily and regularly open them up and punish them to advantage. I have been somewhat conservative in handicapping this game at 14.5, even with the Knights at home I could easily have been at 18 to 20.

I like the way this games shapes up for Panthers and their attack and skill strengths, keen they can win by a margin here.

Bet 3 units Panthers -11.5 $1.91 Pinnacle


Roosters vs Cowboys

+6.5 Roosters

Stats

The only match of Round 23 featuring 2 last start losers will see the Roosters at home against the Cowboys. It was 1 way traffic when these sides last met in Round 3, when the Cowboys scored 40 unanswered points, keeping the Roosters to nil for the 1st time in 2 years. The Roosters hold a distinct advantage both all-time and at Allianz Stadium, with the last meeting at the ground 1 of the most memorable Finals, with the Cowboys trailing 30-0 before mounting 1 of the great comebacks only to be beaten by a point. The Cowboys have now dropped out of the Top 4 for the 1st time since Round 4 and have lost 3 of their last 4 and 5 of their last 6 on the road. Despite dropping out of the Top 4, the Cowboys still rank as the 3 rd best attacking unit in the NRL, while their defence rates 2nd. They are 10-10 ATS but have failed to cover in 5 of their last 6 away games, while they are 3 & 3 when laying a start on the road. In TMP’s they are 12-8 Under with their last 5 all finishing that way, while their last 6 on the road have also gone Unders. The Cowboys have won 11 from 11 this year when going to half time with a lead, while the half time leader has won 10 of the last 11 clashes between the Roosters and Cowboys. The Roosters have lost 7 of their last 8 and 8 of 11 this season at Allianz Stadium, while they have lost 11 of 12 against the Top 8. They remain in 15th spot and have been there for 14 weeks with just 4 wins and look set to have their worst finish since 2009. They rank 14th in attack and 15th in defence and have conceded 20 points or more on 15 occasions. The Roosters are 7-13 ATS, which is the equal worst cover record in the comp and they have covered in only 3 of 7 at Allianz Stadium this year when getting a start. They are 14-6 Over in TMP’s, with 5 of their last 6 totaling 40 or more. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in 5 of their last 6, while in 9 of their last 10 matches, the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 8th minute. The Roosters have scored half of their 62 tries this season attacking to their left edge, but no side has conceded fewer tries than the Cowboys through their right edge in defence (12). A couple of key ins for the Roosters and key outs for the Cowboys, with Pearce and JWH back for the TriColours, while Granville and Hannant are out for North Queensland

Preview

 


Raiders vs Storm

+3.5 Raiders

Stats

The match of the Round closes out Round 23 when the 2 form teams of the competition go head to head in Canberra. Both sides are on a 6 game winning streak, the Raiders winning 9 of their last 10, while Melbourne has won 13 of their last 14. The Storm has won 26 of 36 all-time against the Raiders and they have also dominated at GIO Stadium, winning 12 of 18, with 12 of those wins coming from the last 14 meetings at the ground since 2003. Melbourne is now back at the top of the table with 17 wins off the back of the best defence in the NRL, conceding just 11.5 points a game. They are ranked 4th in attack with a 245 point differential that is also the best in the competition. The Storm is 11-9 ATS and has covered in 9 of their last 13 matches, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 as a road favourite when laying less than 6 points. In TMP’s they continue to be the Number 1 Unders side in the comp, producing a 15-5 result, while they have gone Unders in 23 of their past 31 away games. MNF is also prone to the Under, with a 14-7 result this result and a combined 28-17 result since 2015. For the 2nd week in a row the Raiders hold down 3rd spot and have spent 21 of 22 weeks in the Top 8. They are the Number 1 attacking side in the NRL, averaging 27.1 points a game, while that average increases to 31.3 PPG since Round 11. They rank 7th defensively, while their 152 point differential ranks 4th. Canberra is 13-7 ATS, with a 6-4 cover record at home, but have covered in only 5 of their last 12 at home as an underdog. The Raiders are the Number 1 Overs side in the NRL, producing a 15-5 result and they have gone Overs in 8 of their last 9. In MNF, both sides have average recent records, with Melbourne winning 6 of their last 13, while the Raiders have won 3 of their last 6 Monday fixtures. The home side has a 12-8-1 record in MNF and a 12-9 record ATS, with a 4-3 cover record as a home underdog. It’s the team with the best attack hosting the team with the best defence and shapes as 1 of, if not the match of the season.

Preview

Great contest but certainly a tricky game. I am working on Austin not playing, which is a key out and significantly weakens their attack. I also think the Raiders are somewhat like the Tigers into this round, come off a big game, big win for which they had a big lift and then run the risk of some let down into another big game. Also, with the Cowboys surprise loss the Raiders then have some breathing space for another week in the top 4, so less urgency and possibly some mental complacency. That “big” win last week also now looks somewhat questionable given the Sharks loss.

But I’m also not completely sold on the Storm at present, they could have should have been beaten last week by the Rabbits who have then knocked an easy 40 through the Warriors.

I think we are seeing some teams at the top of the table playing on some tired legs on the back of  origin and some likely heavy fitness build ups towards the finals run, more likely the Storm here.

The Raiders do have the game style and man power through the middle to trouble and or beat the Storm, but their discipline, handling and control against a good opponent in a real arm wrestle concerns me. The Storms defence has been outstanding this year, and I think that is the likely difference here.

Lets watch and learn what two top of table sides have to offer. Great clash, slight lean to Storm.


 


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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


AFL Round 19

 

Bet 2 units Collingwood -15.5 $1.92 Luxbet

Bet 2 units Gold Coast-GWS under 192.5 $1.90 Luxbet BB

Bet 1 unit Adelaide-Brisbane over 207.5 $1.91 Bet365

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Collingwood, Sydney, Hawthorn, GWS, North Melbourne, Adelaide, St Kilda, Geelong, West Coast


Game Previews

 

Richmond v Collingwood

The Pies have won 8 of their last 10 v Richmond and come into this game having won 4 of their last 6 with a reasonable form line. Their only losses in that time frame have been against Adelaide and North Melbourne. The Tigers on the other hand are blooding kids, have lost four of their last five and were diabolical in managing just 23 points against GWS. In their preferred night time slot, the Pies are well placed to continue their solid finish to the season. The market agrees, firming 3-4 points towards the Pies since Tuesday morning.

Bet 2 units Collingwood -15.5 $1.92 Luxbet


Gold Coast v GWS

A very high line has been set for this twilight match with the bookies clearly placing considerable weight on the first clash between these two sides earlier this season – which yielded 207 points. However, that match was played in the middle of the Suns’ 10 game losing streak when they were low on troops. They have now recovered to win three of their last five, including a narrow two point loss. While still low on midfield grunt, the Suns forwards and backs have performed admirably in recent weeks and I expect them to be highly competitive against a fellow expansion club.   Importantly, the Suns’ last three matches have yielded 130, 186 and 166 points while the Giants last two matches have  yielded 134 and 139 points. The Suns are off a six day back up while the Giants will be playing their fourth consecutive road trip which will take a bit out of both sides. If the forecast showers arrive, the chances of the match going under will be further enhanced.

Bet 2 units Gold Coast-GWS under 192.5 $1.90 Luxbet BB


Adelaide v Brisbane

The Crows demonstrated last weekend that they were in a percentage boosting mood and they get another chance here against a Lions outfit that continued to leak points while still managing to score  enough goals of their own to keep the scorekeepers busy. The Lions have gone over in 14 of 18 games this season and their last four matches have yielded 252, 219, 213 and 252 points. Not even last weekend’s night match could keep the scores down and another shoot out is on the cards at the Adelaide Oval.

Bet 1 unit Adelaide-Brisbane over 207.5


 

Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Sydney v Port Adelaide  – The Power racked up a cricket score against the Lions and have gone over in 10 of their last 12 day games but expect this game to be played on the Swans terms and they have gone under in 12 of 18 games this season.


Melbourne v Hawthorn – Hawks have won 13 in a row against the Demons. At this stage of the season with heavy training in progress before the taper, it would not surprise in the least to see them do just enough to win. Lean towards the Demons to cover and the match to go under.


Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne – Kangas have covered 28 of their last 39 with seven or more days between games but I respect the fact that the Dogs have covered 12 of their last 16 as 0.5-15 point underdogs. Slight lean towards the Kangas on the back of a healthier squad.


Carlton v St Kilda – Blues are again in their preferred daytime slot where they have covered 22 of their last 31. However, I can’t have them at the small line. Very slight lean to the Saints.


Geelong v Essendon – Geelong ‘should’ belt the Dons but they have a poor record as 30.5+ favourites covering on 9 of the last 32 such games. Further they have only won by more than 66.5 on only two occasions this season so can’t be trusted to cover the big line. Danger game!


Fremantle v West Coast – Eagles have gone under in 14 of 18 games this season and I expect Freo to be happy to make an arm wrestle of it. However with a very low line for a day game, this game is best left alone.

 


 

 


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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


 

Rd 22 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+8.5 Dragons vs Broncos

+3.5 Eels vs Eagles

+14.5 Knights vs Bulldogs

-5.5 Sharks vs Raiders

-24.5 Storm vs Rabbits

-4.5 Titans vs Warriors

+9.5 Tigers vs Cowboys

-3.5 Panthers vs Roosters

 


NRL Round 22 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Dragons vs Broncos under 37.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 1 unit Raiders H2H $2.93 Pinnacle

Bet 2 units Raiders +6.5 $1.92 Pinnacle / Luxbet / Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Storm -18.0 Pinnacle $1.93 / Topsport / or -18.5

Bet 4 units Cowboys -1.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / TabSportsbet BB

Notes:

Cowboys bet nominated a week ago, and I want to anchor this for this weekend we are now well ahead of the market.

Broncos get key players back, Bennett will be focused on D and keeping things simple, Broncos have a long record of unders when on the road and I expect they are much better here

Eagles some risk, Eels have 3 key ins and back at home,the plus looks a nice advantage – but I want 8 or more

Sharks major risk this week for mine, Raiders have some advantage here, I like them H2H and the plus position

Weather and market watch on Storm-Rabbits, Titans-Warriors and Panthers-Roosters, I think the visitors in both later games are positioned to advantage

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Current record vs Top 8 prior to this round

8/9 Sharks

5/7 Storm

5/9 Raiders

4/8 Bulldogs

4/8 Cowboys

5/12 Dragons

3/9 Broncos

3/10 Panthers

3/10 Warriors

3/12 Eels

2/8 Titans

2/9 Tigers

1/9 Eagles

1/10 Roosters

0/9 Knights

0/7 Rabbits


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Eagles, Bulldogs, Raiders, Storm, Warriors, Cowboys, Roosters


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Dragons vs Broncos

+8.5 Dragons

Stats

The Dragons and Broncos kick off Round 22 in what shapes as a dour contest with 2 sides that are well and truly struggling for form. Wins have been few and far between for both sides in recent weeks (and months) with the Dragons losing 4 straight (& 6 of last 9), while the Broncos have lost 4 of their last 5 (& 7 of last 9). Brisbane has pretty much owned the Dragons since 2010, winning 10 of the last 11 clashes, including the previous 2 meetings at WIN Stadium. A Broncos try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 9 straight against the Dragons who have conceded the 1st try in 3 of their last 4. Brisbane is 8-11 ATS and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 8, but have covered in 4 of the last 5 against the Dragons. They are 10-9 Over in TMP’s, with 6 of their last 7 finishing that way, while 4 of the last 6 clashes with the Dragons have also gone Over. The Broncos have a 7-5 record against sides in the bottom half of the ladder with 10 of the 12 matches having a margin outcome of 13+. Despite their poor recent form, Brisbane’s attack still ranks 5th, while both their defence and differential rank 6th . Corey Oates is Brisbane’s leading try scorer with 12 but he has failed to score in 3 of his last 4 matches. The Dragons have won 6 of their last 7 matches at WIN Stadium but they are a 4 and 8 against sides currently positioned in the Top 8. They are 9-10 ATS and 6-6 against the Top 8, while they have a 7-4 covering record at WIN Stadium since 2014. The Dragons have the 2nd worst attack in the competition, while their defence rates 10th . They are 13-6 Under in TMP’s, with a 10-2 Under record against the Top 8, while 10 of their last 12 matches at WIN Stadium have also finished Under with only 2 of them finishing higher than 36. Kurt Mann continues to lead the way as Dragons 1st try scorer with 8 and he has now scored a try in his last 6 matches. The home team has failed to cover in the last 8 matches when Ben Cummins has been in charge.

Preview

Two sides still looking for form and a break through win. Broncos have lost 7 of their last 9 and conceded 30 or more points at 4 their last 5 games, but now have key player returns with Gillett, Thaiday and McGuire heading the list. I’m expecting a much improved offering from them here, focused on defence. Dragons have key outs with Frizelle and Thompson, form very poor losing their last 4, attack pedestrian, hard to get excited with though they did show some signs last week of trying to be more expansive yet just went sideways and still only scored 10 points…

Trick game, Broncos look to get their chance to roll their sleeves up and get back on the map here. Longer term Broncos road record is strongly unders, they do like to focus on defence and it is also very much Bennett’s mantra when backs up against the wall. Wet track, dour conditions, Dragons lacing two key backrowers and any attack, unders for me.

Broncos to win in dour low scoring arm wrestle.

Bet 1 unit Dragons vs Broncos under 37.5 $1.90 Sportsbet


Eels vs Eagles

+3.5 Eels

Stats

Friday Night Football sees 2 arch enemies going head to head when the Manly Sea Eagles travel to Pirtek Stadium to take on the Parramatta Eels. Manly has everything to play for, with a Finals spot still up for grabs, while the Eels are playing for nothing but pride. The Eels have recorded 4 consecutive victories over the Sea Eagles and a win this week will be just the 3rd time in their history that they have recorded 5 straight wins over their arch rivals. Bragging rights have been shared equally at Pirtek Stadium with both sides recording 11 wins each, while Manly holds a 33 game all time advantage. The Eels have won only 3 of their 7 games at their traditional home ground this season, while they are 5-4 against sides in the bottom 8. They have lost 4 of their last 5 and conceded 22 points or more in all 4 of those losses. They rank 12th in attack, while their defence ranks a respectable 4th, giving them a 17 point differential that ranks 8th . Parramatta is 11-8 ATS with a 3-4 cover record at Pirtek Stadium, while they have covered in their last 5 clashes with the Sea Eagles. In TMP’s they are 12-7 Under, while 4 of the last 5 clashes with Manly have also finished Under. The Eels have conceded the 1st try in 12 of their previous 15 games played at Pirtek Stadium and they have also conceded the 1st try in 6 of the last 8 meetings with Manly. After 7 straight losses, the Sea Eagles have now won 4 on the trot to be just 1 win outside the Top 8. Manly were conceding an average of 25 points a game prior to Round 17, but have conceded an average of just 12 points a game since the start of their winning run, with only the Storm conceding fewer points during that period. They have won 4 of their last 5 against sides in the bottom half of the ladder and have won 5 of their last 6 as a road favourite. The Sea Eagles attack and defence both rank 11th, while their -40 differential also rates 11th . Manly are 9-10 ATS and have covered in their last 5 straight, while they have also covered in 4 of their last 5 against a bottom 8 opponent. In TMP’s they are 10-9 in favour of the Under, while 4 of their last 6 away games have also finished Under. A Sea Eagles try has been the 1st scoring play in their last 3 matches and in all 3 of those, the try has been scored by the 4 th minute. Jorge Taufua has scored a try in 6 of his last 7 appearances for Manly.

Preview

The Eels are not legless here. They finally get 3 key player returns with Scott, Jennings and M’au, they play from their traditional home track and they have a very good record of aiming up against their arch rival opponent. While they have been fairly beaten at their last few outings they have been under manned, have still retained effort and attitude, and they weren’t that far away from the Tigers last week where a couple of plays could have gone their way and have made that game far closer. What I am suggesting as while no rock solid finals opponent they haven’t completely rolled over and put the white flag up just yet.

The Eagles have been good to us through their recent run of wins but lets also be careful that the form is paper thin and we have picked them up when beating the likes of the Knights, Rabbits and Dragons, all bottom of the table losing teams. They are also not putting their foot to the floor for 80 minutes against these lowly sides, a poor sign, and are heavily reliant on playing their attack to just one side of the field (left) off DCE which I am sure Brad Arthur will be a wake up to. Also, if you were to have a long look at the record of sides who have beaten the Knights they do not fare well at the line the following week (soft win, complacent mental let down).

The Eagles still have something to play for, and I expect they can squeak home with a win here, but I do give the Eels a live chance, +6.5 is probably enough if you want to have an angle on teh game but for me I want + the key number of 8 or better if it was to possibly become available on Friday afternoon.


Knights vs Bulldogs

+14.5 Knights

Stats

The Knights play host to the Bulldogs in the 1st of 3 matches on Super Saturday. Newcastle has a good recent record over the Bulldogs, winning 6 of 8 from 2010 to 2013 before the Dogs recorded back to back wins in the 2 most recent meetings. It’s the 1st of 4 consecutive home games for the Knights who will be looking to avoid a new club record of 14 straight losses. They have lost their last 6 at home after their 1st and only win of the season back in Round 6. The Knights remain in 16th spot and rank last in both attack and defence. Newcastle is 7-12 ATS, with a 4-4 cover record at home, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 at home with a double digit advantage. They are 11-8 Over in TMP’s and have traditionally been a big Overs side at home in day games, producing a 14-7 result since 2014, while their last 6 Saturday afternoon matches have all finished Over, but clashes with the Bulldogs defy the trend as only twice in the last 13 meetings have the TMP’s been higher than 38 with an average of 36. A Knights try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Dogs at Hunter Stadium, while the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 7th minute in 8 of the last 10 clashes. The Bulldogs returned to the winners circle last week but were hardly convincing. They have won 5 of their last 6 and 7 of their last 8 against a bottom 8 opponent, while 7 of their 12 wins have come on the road. The Dogs rank 6 th in attack, while both their defence and differential also rank 6th . They are 7-12 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 4 straight and in 4 of their last 5 when laying a double digit start. Road favourites laying more than a converted try have covered in 8 of the last 9 day games. In TMP’s the Dogs are 10-9 Over and have gone Over in 7 of their past 9, while they are 5-1 Over in day games this season. The Bulldogs have failed to score more than 6 2nd half points in the last 7 clashes with the Knights. Curtis Rona is the Bulldogs leading try scorer with 10 but he has failed to score in his last 2 matches.

Preview

Rubbish game. Bulldogs win, but have been pathetic for weeks.


Sharks vs Raiders

-5.5 Sharks

Stats

It’s 1st versus 3rd in what is clearly the match of the Round when the ladder leaders host the Raiders at Shark Park. While the Sharks winning run came to an end when they drew with the Titans, they are still undefeated from their last 16 matches, but the Raiders could well be the 1st side since Round 3 to deliver a defeat to Cronulla. The Sharks hold a slight 35-30 all time advantage over the Raiders who have won the last 2 clashes at Shark Park. High scoring affairs have been common place between these 2 sides in recent years, with 8 of the last 10 clashes totaling 40 points or more. The Raiders come into this match off the back of a 50 point demolition job on the Rabbitohs but they step up in class here against a side that hasn’t sat lower than 2nd since Round 10. Canberra has been 1 of the form sides in recent times though, winning 8 of 9 since Round 11 and no side has scored more points than the Raiders during that period. They have won 5 of their last 6 against their Top 8 counterparts and only once all season have they been positioned out of the 8. They come into this Round with the 7th best defence, while they are the NRL’s Number 1 attacking side, averaging 27 points a game. The Raiders are 12-7 ATS and have covered in 5 of their last 6 on the road, while they have also covered in 5 of their last 6 against the Top 8. Canberra is the Number 1 Overs side in the NRL, producing a 14-5 result, with 8 of their last 9 all finishing Over, while 9 of the last 10 matches where Ashley Klein has been in charge have finished Overs with all but 1 of them totaling 42 or more. The Sharks are yet to taste defeat at home in 2016, winning 10 from 10 and have won 14 of their last 16 as a starting favourite. Cronulla are the 3rd best defensive side in the competition, while their attack and differential both rate 2nd. Like the Raiders, the Sharks have a 12-7 record ATS but have covered in only 2 of their last 7 at home when laying a start. Cronulla is 11-8 Under in TMP’s, with a 7-3 Under record at home, while they are 12-6 Under since 2015 as a home favourite. A Sharks try has been the 1st scoring play in 10 of the last 12 meetings with the Raiders. Valentine Holmes has scored 7 tries from his 9 appearances at Shark Park this season.

Preview

I do like the Raiders here. They are not with out some risk (it is the Raiders after all) but they have plenty going for them here in what looks like it might be the right week. The positives for them is they get the Sharks when venerable, off a short turn around Monday night travel away game (and extra time), plus I think the mental expectations and baggage of this long undefeated run is weighting them (the Sharks) down a little. The Raiders have a big physical side, big bench, and are playing with some positive confidence right now and Stuart will be very pumped up to have them up and set for this.

The Raiders tho carry two risks. One is that they have been poor under expectation, and the last time then went into a game like this (vs a top of table contender) they shit themselves with a very very poor first 50 minutes vs the Broncos and had their pants pulled down. Stuart needs to keep them confident, but balanced, and it’s not always his strength. Their other major issue and will likely become even more apparent into the finals is the coach’s long term inability to coach attack in the final 20 mtrs red attacking zone. He is clueless, has been for 10 yrs, and staggering having been such a sharp international #7 and played under one of the best attacking minds in Sheens. As I have stated previously, the final 20 is about structuring and set up your sets of 6 to open a hole, create an overlap, put someone through the line, target a weak defender and play a smart kick piece. The majority of NRL teams today pass left and right for the sake of it, play after play and have no farking idea what they are doing or wanting to do, and just hope that they can either crash someone over the line or an individual piece of brilliance will create a try. Watch a replay of the first 30 minutes last week of the Raiders, just terrible, clueless, no idea, no plan, poorly coached, they should have scored at least 3 more tries. They are super when playing attack from a distance, they play with width, use the ball, momentum, have a preparedness to attack, I love it, but it all turns to you know what when they get anchored in that final 20 mtrs. So we have some risk here that they don’t murder possession when required.

I want to take the Sharks on. They have been close to a loss for some weeks and have some key things against them here. They are a good side, but a risk. The Raiders get their chance, they have much in their favour and if they can start well and hold their nerve they can give this a big shake. I want to be with them both ways.

Bet 1 unit Raiders H2H $2.93 Pinnacle

Bet 2 units Raiders +6.5 $1.92 Pinnacle / Luxbet / Sportsbet


Storm vs Rabbits

-24.5 Storm

Stats

The Rabbitohs travel to Melbourne to take on the Storm to close out Super Saturday in what shapes as a total mismatch. The Storm is in a rich vein of form, winning 12 of their last 13 and have opened at their equal shortest price of the season, while the Rabbitohs are faced with 9 straight losses for the 1st time since 2008 and will start at their longest price of the season. Melbourne has won 8 of the last 9 clashes and will be full of confidence to make it 9 from 10 as the Rabbitohs have never won a game in Melbourne, losing all 12 of the previous matches played in Victoria. Melbourne has won 8 of 9 at AAMI Park in 2016 and only once this season have they been beaten by a side currently sitting out of the Top 8, having won 9 of 10. The Storm are the Number 1 defensive unit in the NRL, while their differential of 244 also ranks 1st. Melbourne ranks 4th in attack, with an average of 24 PPG. They are 11-8 ATS and have covered in 9 of their last 12, while they are 6-6 at home since 2014 when laying a double digit start. The Storm continues to be the Number 1 Unders side in the NRL, producing a 14-5 result, with their last 3 totaling 36 or less, while 9 of the previous 10 clashes with the Rabbitohs have totaled 34 or less. Only once since Round 8 has the Storm trailed at half time and they have won 15 of 16 with a half time lead and only once in the last 13 meetings have the Rabbits led the Storm at the break. The Rabbitohs are coming off their biggest loss in 10 years after conceding 54 points against the Raiders and they have lost 11 of their last 12 when backing up from a 13+ defeat. They have conceded 20 points or more in their last 13 matches and also in all 7 games against a current Top 8 opponent, where they have lost 7 from 7, 6 of them by a margin of 13+. They have also failed to score a 1st half point in 5 of those 7 matches against the Top 8. Souths remain in 13th position on the ladder and have the same ranking in attack, while they are now the 2 nd worst defensive side in the NRL, conceding an average of 25.5 PPG. Souths are 6-13 ATS and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 8 and 12 of their last 14 when getting a start. They are 12-7 Over in TMP’s, with 4 of their last 5 away games totaling 42 or more. The Rabbitohs have trailed at half time in 13 of their last 14 matches and only the Knights have scored fewer 1st half points than South Sydney.

Preview

I have been waiting to see what the final weather looked here and given no rain forecast I am keep to play.

I am working on the basis of Smith and Cronk playing, my understanding is that they will and they have trained a full week this week unlike recent weeks where they have only done the final session. If you are nervous on this you might want to wait till an hour prior to game time for final team announcements.

The Rabbits are rubbish, and falling apart quickly, thumped last week by 50 in what could easily have been 70. They get a couple of players back including Inglis, but he is playing busted and they have little harmony or cohesion given all of the key team exits, injuries and changes through recent months, most notably in defence where they are just being flogged. They also have a disastrous record in Melbourne.

The Storm are top of the table, utterly professional. come off a quality away win over the Cowboys, have been super at home, and will just methodically work through their gears here and by games end I expect to be 30 or more points in front. What we also know is that they pride themselves in defence, and in giving up a big line I get significant comfort in this, add in teh fact the Rabbits just don’t have points in them.

I was conservative when I marked this 24.5, I could easily have been much closer to 30. Keen the Storm do the business here.

Bet 2 units Storm -18.0 Pinnacle $1.93 / Topsport / or -18.5


Titans vs Warriors

-4.5 Titans

Stats

There will be plenty to play for when the Titans host the Warriors in what is forecast to be a wet Sunday afternoon on the Gold Coast, with the loser likely to drop out of the Top 8. The Warriors have a dominant recent record over the Titans, having won 10 of the last 11 clashes, including winning their last 5 straight at CBus Super Stadium. Recent meetings have typically been high scoring affairs, with the last 8 clashes (and 15 of the last 17) all topping 40 points. The Warriors moved back into the 8 at the expense of last week’s opponent, the Panthers, in what was their 3rd consecutive match decided by Golden Point. Their last 3 matches on Australian soil have also been decided by GP with the Warriors losing all 3 to make it 5 losses from their last 6 away games. The Warriors are 3 & 6 against the Top 8 and have won only 1 of 5 against a current Top 8 opponent as the away side. They rank 8th in attack and 12th in defence, giving them a -17 differential that ranks 9th. For the 6th time this season, the Warriors will start as a road dog and they are yet to register a win in 2016 from that position and have lost 15 of their last 16 long term as a road outsider. The Warriors are 8-11 ATS, with a 5-5 road record, while their last away game was the only time they have covered as a road dog in a day match since 2014. In TMP’s they are 11-8 Over, with a 7-3 Over record on the road, while they are 5-1 Over from their last 6 day games away from home with 4 of them totaling 60 or more. The Titans are unbeaten in their last 3 after ending the Sharks winning run in Golden Point on Monday night, while they have lost only 1 of their last 5 at home. They have also won 4 of their last 6 as a home favourite. The Titans have now been in the Top 8 for the last 3 weeks, which is their longest period of the season that they have spent in the 8. Their attack and differential both rank 7th, while they are 8th in defence. The Titans have been the darlings of the NRL in line betting, covering in 14 of their 19 matches, including 8 of their last 10, while they have a 7-3 cover record at home. They are 10-9 Over in TMP’s, while 6 of their last 8 at home have finished Under. They have also had Unders results in 7 of their last 9 day games at home. Chris McQueen has scored 5 tries from the Titans last 5 home games.

Preview

Line ball game for me with a slight leaning for Warriors but tricky. Titans lose Roberts, key out at #6 and then get Hayne and the surrounding hype (which I think is very positive for the club, district and the game). They also get Peats back, another key in. The Warriors have a key out at #9 with Luke not playing.

There are two key issues for mine. The Titans come off a big game last Monday night, high quality, physical and extra time then some potential let down, and we saw the Sharks falter last night. I like what they are doing, I’m a rap on them, they have been very good to us this season, but this is a different set up for them as the highly focused fav. The next issue is the Warriors long term record both H2H and at the ground over the Titans, they have won a staggering 10 of the last 11 contests and their last 5 at the Gold Coast. Some sides just have a boggy side, and or grounds that they love playing at, and clearly there is some of that happening here. This game will now also draw a big crowd, but given the Kiwi following on the Gold Coast half of them will be Kiwi’s, so the Warriors will have their fair share of local support today as well – and importantly they turn up here with no focus, pressure or expectation on them and that can be when they play their best footy.

It’s a good match up of two teams that will look to play some positive footy. I love the Lolohea, Fusitua, Leuluai and Johnson combinations, skill and attack all over it. The Titans also have some smarts and punch with Peats, Taylor, Mead and then the use of Hayne most likely at fullback. Both teams also like to play off load and second phase footy, so I’m sure we will see plenty of open play and attack. I have a slight lean to the Warriors in what looks an excellent open game.

The total points overs looks the obvious play but with both goal kickers (Luke, Roberts) missing and Johnson having had some issues recently with a groin strain 48 might be a decent total to chase if missing kicks for goal.


Tigers vs Cowboys

+9.5 Tigers

Stats

History shows it’s now 16 years since the Cowboys last recorded a victory at Leichardt Oval, with the Tigers winning the last 5 clashes at the venue. It’s more than a year since these sides last met, with that match eventually becoming the lowest scoring match of the 2015 season and it was also the Cowboys 1st and only win over the Tigers in Sydney since 2004, with the Tigers winning the 11 previous clashes as the home team. The Cowboys have won 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Tigers who have lost 7 of their last 11 matches at Leichardt Oval. North Queensland has won only 1 of their last 5 away games but have won 5 of their last 8 as a road favourite. They have dropped from 3rd to 4th on the ladder after last week’s loss to the Storm but still rank as the 2 nd best defensive unit in the NRL, while they are now 3rd in attack rankings which sees their 201 differential also rank 3rd. The Cowboys have won 9 of their last 10 against sides currently sitting in the bottom half of the ladder and have covered the line in 8 of those. They are 10-9 ATS with a 4-5 cover record on the road, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 when laying a start as an away side. The Cowboys are 11-8 Under in TMP’s, with 8 of their last 10 totaling 38 or less, including their last 5 away games. Antonio Winterstein continues to lead the way as the Cowboys leading try scorer with 11 and was the only try scorer in the previous meeting with the Tigers. The Tigers have won 3 of their last 4 and their last 3 at home but all of those wins have come against bottom 8 opposition. They have lost 7 of their last 8 against the Top 8 sides which doesn’t bode well for their Finals aspirations as 4 of their last 5 matches are against those sides currently in the 8. Only once from their 9 matches against the Top 8 have they outscored their opponent in the 2 nd half, averaging just 7 points, while conceding an average of 18. The Tigers are just outside the 8 in 9th spot, while they are 13th in attack and 12th in defence. They are 11-8 ATS and have covered in their last 6 straight, while they have covered in 6 of 8 games this season when getting more than a converted try advantage. In TMP’s they are 11-8 Over, while 7 of the last 9 clashes with the Cowboys have totaled 42 or more. The Tigers have conceded the 1st try of the match in the last 6 meetings with the Cowboys and in 6 of their last 8 when versing a Top 8 side. James Tedesco & David Nofoaluma have combined to score more than half of the Tigers tries since Round 13, with Tedesco scoring in 4 of his last 6 and Nofoaluma bagging 6 from his last 7 appearances.

Preview

Key ins and outs here with Brooks out for Tigers and Thurston in for Cowboys.

We will see two things about the Tigers here, how deep is the recent winning form through Eels and Dragons, I’m not so sure it is all that strong, and how they play against good opposition with makeshift #9 options and now no Brooks. In my opinion Taylor has let his person dislike and agenda with Farah get way in front of the best thing for his team, and it’s almost laughable to see a makeshift winger who struggles to maintain his position in 1st grade be used as your back up dummy half during crucial periods of the game. My understanding is that the finer detail for Farah’s severance and pay out with the Tigers was done last Wednesday and he will early this week be announced as a new signing with the Rabbits on a 2 yr deal.

The Cowboys come off strong form through the Storm, put the cleaners through the Bulldogs only weeks ago and clearly have Thurston back. This ground is a long term boggy ground for them, having only ever won the once here, but I am expecting off a loss last week the result here and how they go about it is important.

Our early bet last week has put us well ahead of where the market now is, I expect Cowboys win and we’ll be very happy at anything better than a 2 point margin.

Bet 4 units Cowboys -1.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / TabSportsbet BB


Panthers vs Roosters

-3.5 Panthers

Stats

Monday Night Football heads to the foot of the mountains where the Panthers host the Roosters to close out Round 22. The Panthers defeated the Roosters when they last met in Round 7 and will be looking for back to back wins over the Tri-Colours for the 1st time since 2012. Penrith had won 2 in a row before going down to the Warriors in Golden Point which saw them drop from 8th to 9th and not since Round 12 have they been able to remain in the Top 8 in consecutive weeks. They have 1 of the softest draws in the closing Rounds, with 4 of their 5 remaining matches coming against sides currently ranked below them. The Panthers rank 9th defensively, with both their attack and differential ranking 10th. They are 10-9 ATS but have failed to cover in their last 5 at Pepper Stadium and 5 of their last 6 when laying a start, while they have also failed to cover in 3 of the last 5 against the Roosters. Penrith are 10-9 Under in TMP’s and 7-2 Under off a loss, while the last 4 clashes with the Roosters have all finished Under, with none of them totaling more than 37. Monday night games are also in heavy favour of the Unders, with a 14-6 result season to date. The Roosters have lost 6 of their last 7 but only 1 of those 7 matches has been against sides out of the Top 8. They have lost 8 of 9 on the road, including their last 6 straight, but have won their last 2 at Pepper Stadium. The Roosters rank 14th in both attack and defence, while their differential of -126 ranks 13th. The Tri-Colours are 7-11 ATS and have covered in only 2 of their 9 away games. They are 13-6 Over in TMP’s, with 7 of their last 9 finishing that way. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in their last 6 matches and in 5 of them, the try has been scored by the 8th minute. The side to score the 1st points of the match has won the previous 9 clashes

Preview

I want to see how the weather fares Sunday and into Monday here, the forecast is for clearing and then clear Monday. I think the Roosters are a nice chance here and a likely small play with the plus.

Pearce now in significant doubt to play this evening so no play, no interest in 6.5 line either way. Market has moved from 4 to 6.5, without Pearce Roosters lose plenty and likely lose but I have no confidence in this Panthers side when expected favs winning and doing so by 8. Happy to pass.


 


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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.

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AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 18

 

Bet 1 unit Carlton +48.5 $1.90 TAB Sportsbet BB

Adelaide v Essendon – TBA

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Geelong, GWS, Hawthorn, West Coast, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide


Game Previews

 

Hawthorn v Carlton

While the Hawks remain the standout team in the competition in terms of wins and losses, they clearly haven’t been putting teams away like they used to. They have only won by more than 48.5 points twice in 17 games this season. The Blues have covered 21 of their last 30 day games and despite losing six in a row, they have only been blown out in one of those games. They have been playing with spirit and I expect them to be well prepared for this contest with Bolton up against his old team for the first time.  The Blues will also be advantaged with a seven day turnaround compared to six days for Hawthorn.

Bet 1 unit Carlton +48.5 $1.90 TAB Sportsbet BB


Adelaide v Essendon

Was very keen on Adelaide to cover in a match going over given the last four clashes have yielded 230, 193, 199 and 204 points but I’m very risk averse and refrain from playing big lines and overs when wet weather is forecast. I’ll be keeping a close watch on the weather with a view to advising of a potential bet if the weather is favourable.

Potential bet TBA


 

Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Geelong v Western Bulldogs – The desperately unlucky Dogs continue to lose players to injury but continue to fight hard. They have been involved in a few arm wrestles in recent weeks as have Geelong. With the loser likely to struggle to make the top four, there is a good chance of a classic high stakes arm wrestle here. Both teams have gone under in 12 of their 17 matches this season and the Dogs have also gone under in 19 of their last 24 with six days between games. A slight chance of a shower is forecast and will further increase the chance of the match going under. Was keen to bet the under but really need a line of 160.5 or higher.


GWS v Richmond – GWS have covered the line in 22 of 31 games as favourites, but having never beaten Richmond before I can’t have them. They are also a risk to cover the big line off a six day break.


Collingwood v West Coast – Eagles have gone under in 13 of 17 games this season and I lean towards this continuing but the bookies have nailed the total spot on in their markets.
Brisbane v Port Adelaide – Port are in their preferred night timeslot having covered 20 of their last 29 night games while the Lions have only covered 1 of their last 8 night games and 12 of their last 39 games overall. Lean towards Port covering and the over in a high scoring shootout.


North Melbourne v St Kilda – Hats off to Boomer. The market has moved towards 2-3 points towards the Kangas since Tuesday morning and I lean towards them also as they have covered in 27 of their last 38 off a seven day break.


Melbourne v Gold Coast – Suns have gone over in 31 of their last 45 day games. With both sides out of contention, I lean towards the over in what shapes as a potential late season day time shootout.


Fremantle v Sydney – Swans have covered the line in 28 of their last 42 day games and I expect them to prevail in a low scoring clash.


 

 


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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

 

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 21

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 21

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 21 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

0.0 Roosters vs Broncos

-16.5 Bulldogs vs Dragons

-2.5 Warriors vs Panthers

+5.5 Eels vs Tigers

-5.5 Cowboys vs Storm

+9.5 Rabbits vs Raiders

-22.5 Eagles vs Knights

+5.5 Titans vs Sharks

 


NRL Round 21 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Roosters H2H $2.00 TabSportsbet

Bet 2 units Bulldogs-Dragons over 39.5 $1.90 Luxbet / Unibet / TopSport

Bet 1 unit Cowboys +2.5 $1.90 Ubet / $1.85 Unibet

Bet 2 units Raiders tri bet >6.5 $1.81 William Hill

Bet 3 units Eagles -18.5 $1.91 William Hill BB

 

Round 22

Bet 4 units Cowboys -1.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / TabSportsbet BB

 

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Current record vs Top 8 prior to this round

8/9 Sharks

5/7 Storm

5/9 Raiders

4/8 Bulldogs

4/8 Cowboys

5/12 Dragons

3/9 Broncos

3/10 Panthers

3/10 Warriors

3/12 Eels

2/8 Titans

2/9 Tigers

1/9 Eagles

1/10 Roosters

0/9 Knights

0/7 Rabbits


Individual Game Tips

Roosters, Bulldogs, Panthers, Tigers, Cowboys, Raiders, Eagles, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Roosters vs Broncos

0.0 Roosters

Stats

Two sides desperately out of form kick off Round 21 when the Roosters host the Broncos from Allianz Stadium. Wins have been few and far between for both sides recently, with the Roosters losing 8 of their last 9, while Brisbane has lost 6 of their last 8. A finals birth has long been off the table for the Roosters but Brisbane is still a chance of a Top 4 finish, albeit a slim one. Brisbane holds a 25-16 all time advantage over the Roosters, while wins have been shared equally since 2009, with both sides recording 5 wins each. The Roosters have won 3 of the last 4 clashes at Allianz Stadium and in 3 of those they have kept Brisbane scoreless in the 1st half. The Roosters have lost 6 straight and must have 1 of the toughest runs home in the comp, as this will be their 4th game in 5 that they play a Top 6 opponent, while 4 of their last 5 are against sides currently in the 8. They have lost 9 from 9 previously against sides in the Top 8 and have lost 8 of 10 at Allianz Stadium this season. The Roosters have been anchored in 15th spot since Round 9, while their attack, defence and differential all rank 14th. They are 6-12 ATS and have failed to cover in 8 of their 9 matches against the Top 8. They have also failed to cover in the last 4 clashes with the Broncos. In TMP’s they are 12-6 Over, 7-2 Over at Allianz Stadium and 6-1 Over as a home underdog since 2014, while 4 of the last 6 clashes with the Broncos have also finished Over. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in their last 5 matches, while the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 7th minute in 7 of their 9 games at Allianz Stadium this season. Despite losing 6 of their last 8, the Broncos still remain in 6th spot. After the opening 9 Rounds, the Broncos boasted the best defensive record in the NRL, conceding an average of 12 points a game, but have averaged almost 28 points a game since Round 11. They are currently ranked 5th in attack and 6th in defence while their 80 point differential ranks 5th. Brisbane is 8-10 ATS with a 4-5 cover record on the road and they have covered in only 2 of their last 7 as a road favourite. They are split evenly in TMP’s, with a 9-9 result, while 5 of their last 6 have finished Overs. Matches refereed by Ashley Klein also favour the Overs, with an 8-3 result, including the last 6 straight.

Preview

I just have to stay against the Broncos, and while the Roosters have been losing they do come through some very strong form. The Broncos looked terrible last week, shot for confidence, they have some very key outs here with Gillett, Thaiday and McGuire in the middle plus Reed, Kahu, Eden and Nikorima, that’s a decent hole punched in your list and quality. As mentioned last week, their next problem is that their depth and kids off their bench have not stepped up, they really are in all sorts at present.

The Broncos have lost 6 of their last 8 and in 3 of their last 4 have conceded 30 or more points in defence, unheard of for a Bennett coached side. In all honesty they have not played well since Rd 11 their last H2H contest against the Cowboys. Hunt has been shot on confidence and form since Rd 1; Milford has followed through the last 8 or so weeks; they have then had some key injuries in particular to their left edge which coupled with their depth and youth not stepping up seems to then have exaggerated their slide in form. They could also be under the pump with an intensive fitness program as they headed toward finals footy, but if they are not real careful and arrest this slide and form quickly that might also then be a risk.

Roosters also losing and are with out key forward Waerea-Hargreaves but there has been significant improvement across their recent form, and they certainly should have won two of their last 4 notably against the Sharks. If we look a little closer to their form 3 of their last 4 games have been against top 4 opponents, their last two games have been against the Storm and Sharks who now sit top of the table, and for the most part they have been very competitive in each of these games. It’s a strong form line which should position them well here, the worry is them running out the full 80 minutes and winning, but they do look close to a breakthrough win. They also have some strengths to play at the Broncos here, they can play strong and physical through the middle (McGuire and Thaiday missing), can maintain this with a strong forward bench, Pearce has been in good form, I like the talent and look of the young kid at #6 Connor Watson and hopefully we see Latrell Mitchell moved back to fullback.

Like the Roosters chances here, back at home, although losing they come through the strongest recent form reference in the competition at present into an opponent with notable key outs, questionable form and confidence.

Bet 2 units Roosters H2H $2.00 TabSportsbet


Bulldogs vs Dragons

-16.5 Bulldogs

Stats

The Bulldogs have a dominate record over the Dragons, winning 8 of the last 9 clashes, including 6 of the previous 7 meetings at ANZ Stadium. Canterbury also has a very good recent record at ANZ Stadium, having won 12 of their last 16 matches played at the ground, while the Dragons have lost 6 of their last 7 matches at the venue. The Bulldogs are coming off their biggest loss in 3 years but they have a solid record in the week following a heavy defeat, having won 6 of their last 7 off a 13+ loss and they have covered the line in all of those. The Dogs have won their last 6 matches against sides currently sitting in the bottom half of the ladder. They are 7-11 ATS with a 4-4 record at ANZ Stadium when laying a start. In TMP’s they are 10-8 Over, while 7 of the last 10 meetings with the Dragons at ANZ Stadium have finished Under, with an average of 36. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 7 of the previous 9 meetings with the Dragons who have conceded 1st points in 11 of their last 17 at ANZ Stadium. The Dragons have now lost 3 straight and all 3 losses have been by a margin of 13+, while they have averaged just 10 points a game in attack. Their next 3 matches are all against sides currently in the Top 8 and they have won only 1 from 4 previously against the Top 8 as an away side, where they have averaged less than 8 points a game. They have now dropped to 11th on the ladder with an 8-10 record, while their differential of -158 is the 2nd worst in the NRL. Their defence ranks 11th, while only the Knights have scored fewer points than the Dragons in attack. They are 8-10 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 5 when getting a start and have also covered in only 1 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium. In TMP’s they are 12-6 Under, while they are 9-2 Under against the Top 8 at an average of 33. The Dragons have lost 9 of their last 10 matches of Friday Night Football and have conceded the 1st try of the match in 9 of those. The side that has scored the 1st try of the match has gone on to win 14 of the last 16 clashes, while the half time leader has won 15 of the previous 16 meetings.

Preview

The Bulldogs were off last week and smashed by a good Cowboys side, their prior form was ok but right now they are just not up to competing with the pointy end of the table. This is different and they drop quite a few levels of opponent into the Dragons. I’ve stated many times that they have problems in their halves in their inability to own the play making roles, and this is especially highlighted when against the quality defensive sides. They had won their previous 4 games and in the process also rattled up plenty of points, back at home and off a bit of a shake up they should be keen to atone here.

Less said about the Dragons the better, I have done this to death through recent weeks. In short the Coach has no idea and is way way out of his depth, his approach to attack structure, set up, patterns and execution is archaic. Yes their list needs some tinkering with but you could see some significant improvement very quickly with a different approach with the same personal let alone then making some change. gee, in the short term I’d just position Widdop on the right and set up as much play as possible to run down their right edge and feed Taane Milne some space and ball, he looks a talent, big boy, has footwork and hands that can play inside and out, for the Dragons sake I hope he is locked up for the next few years.

When opponents have played the Dragons back through the middle (Eagles at Brookvale a few weeks back, then the Titans) they are very venerable. The Bulldogs have this in spades here, plus they like to off load and play second phase options.

Bulldogs have been involved in totals of 44 or more at 4 of their last 5 outings, and while losing teh Dragons have done something similar and have also been conceding big scores. This game looks to have points in it, we just want the Dragons to either contribute with 3 tries, or roll over completely, and while the Dragons a notable unders team through this and recent seasons, but they have been leaking points more recently and look under pressure to do something similar here again. My model has this contest at 73% overs, I think 40 points looks very achievable.

Bet 2 units Bulldogs-Dragons over 39.5 $1.90 Luxbet / Unibet / TopSport


Warriors vs Panthers

-2.5 Warriors

Stats

Super Saturday kicks off from Auckland when the Warriors play host to the Panthers. The Warriors return home after their back to back away legs, both of which were decided by Golden Point with the Warriors on the wrong end of the result in both matches which has seen them drop out of the 8 to 9th position. They are ranked 8th in attack and 12th in defence, while their -21 differential ranks 11th . The Warriors have now lost 3 of their last 4 and have struggled for wins against the Top 8, with a 3-7 result, while they have won only 1 of the previous 7 clashes with the Panthers. They are 8-10 ATS, with a 3-5 cover record at home and have covered in only 2 of their last 7 at home as a favourite. In TMP’s they are 11-7 Over, while 8 of the last 9 clashes with the Panthers in New Zealand have also finished Over at an average of 51. A Warriors try has been the 1st scoring play in 7 of the last 10 meetings with the Panthers, including the last 5 match ups in New Zealand. Shaun Johnson has been the Warriors 1st try scorer in their last 4 home games and ranks 2nd (9) behind Solomona Kata who is the Warriors leading try scorer with 10. After playing 15 of their 18 matches in NSW, the Panthers will now play distant away games in back to back weeks as well as their 2nd trip to New Zealand this season. They will have gained plenty of confidence after disposing of the Broncos last week as they aim for 3 straight wins for the 1st time this season, but they haven’t won back to back away games since 2014. Their win last week moved them back into the Top 8, at the expense of the Warriors and the Panthers have won 6 of their last 7 against a bottom 8 opponent. The Panthers rank 9th in both attack and defence, with a -13 differential that also ranks 9th . They are split evenly ATS, producing a 9-9 result, while they have covered in 6 of 9 on the road and in 6 of 9 when getting a start. Penrith are also split evenly in TMP’s but are 11-5 Under as a road dog since 2015. No side has been involved in more matches decided by a margin of 1-12 than the Panthers and this has also been the result in the last 5 clashes against the Warriors that have been played in New Zealand. Josh Mansour is the Panthers leading try scorer with 9, but he hasn’t scored in his last 3 matches against the Warriors.

Preview

Tricky game and don’t like much about it. Warriors come off two losses, both distant road games and now return home which should be to their advantage, but they have struggled through recent seasons after the Origin period when up against tougher opponents who are at full strength, and or top of the table opponents. Panthers come off good away win vs Broncos then into another distant away game, certainly have to continue to question how strong a form line beating the Broncos at present is worth, and they are yet to string consistency or wins together.

Don’t like the game, slight lean to Panthers, but nothing would surprise.


Eels vs Tigers

+5.5 Eels

Stats

The Eels and Tigers clash at ANZ Stadium in the Super Saturday Sandwich. The Eels snuck home 8-0 when they last met in Round 4 in what was the lowest scoring match of the season thus far. Recent meetings have been closely fought contests with 4 of the last 5 clashes decided by a margin of 1-12 points. The Eels have now lost 3 of their last 4 but are yet to be beaten at ANZ Stadium this season, winning 4 from 4. They conceded 34 points last week for the 2nd time in month and have conceded an average of 27 points a game over that period. Parramatta is 11-7 ATS and has covered in all 4 of their matches at ANZ Stadium this season. They are 11-7 Under in TMP’s, while 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Tigers have also finished Under. The Eels have scored the 1 st try of the match in the last 4 meetings with the Tigers who have conceded the 1st try in 5 of their last 7. Bevan French crossed again last week to make it 10 tries from 7 appearances and he now joins Radradra as the Eels leading try scorer. The Tigers will be looking for back to back wins for the 1st time since Round 12 and if successful they will break a 7 game win loss sequence. A win will also get them to 22 competition points and depending on other results they could be 1 of 5 teams fighting for a spot in the 8 all on 22 points. They have won 4 of their last 5 against sides in the bottom half of the ladder, as well as winning 6 of the previous 9 clashes with the Eels. The Tigers rank 10th in attack, but have the 2nd worst defensive record in the NRL, conceding 25 points per game. They are 10-8 ATS and have covered in their last 5 straight, as well as covering in 5 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium. In TMP’s they are 11-7 in favour of the Overs, including 5 of their last 6 and they share the highest TMP average in the NRL at 46. Consider James Tedesco in try scorer calculations as he has scored 15 tries from 18 matches at ANZ Stadium, including 11 from his last 12.

Preview

Another questionable game I’m happy to stay away from. The Eels are there to be beat (again), they have now lost 3 of their last 4 and conceded a decent margin last week vs Titans, not host this at Homebush. They have a makeshift line up riddled with key outs, but to their credit key putting in. Tigers won as expected last week, but they could have and should have won by 30 into and through that 2nd half which turned into a very ugly low contest. And that’s the problem with them, inconsistency and an inability to foot their foot to the floor on opponents / games that they should. They have gone W L W L W sequence through their last 7 games, and come off a win, to stay in contention for the finals they again need to win here, and they have a good recent record vs bottom 8 sides. Tigers should win, and seriously should win by 10, but they are hard to trust.


Cowboys vs Storm

-5.5 Cowboys

Stats

Two of the Premiership heavy weights clash in Townsville in what is clearly one of the matches of the Round, although some of the gloss has been taken off with news that Thurston will be missing for the next couple of weeks. There hasn’t been a lot between these sides in recent years, with both sides recording 5 wins from the last 10 encounters and 3 of the last 4 having been decided by single figures. The Cowboys remain unbeaten at home this year after last week’s demolition job on the Bulldogs, to stretch their winning run to 11 consecutive home wins but for just the 2nd time in more than 2 years they start this match as a home underdog. For the 7th week in a row the Cowboys hold down 3rd spot on the ladder, while they rank 2nd in both attack and defence, averaging 26 PPG in attack and conceding 14 PPG in defence. North Queensland is 10-8 ATS, with a 6-3 cover record at home, while they are 15-7 since 2014 when getting a start. They are 10-8 Under in TMP’s, with 6 of their last 7 night fixtures finishing Under at an average of 35, while 5 of the previous 7 clashes with Melbourne have totaled 36 or less. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in all 9 of their home games this season and only once in those 9 matches have they trailed at half time. After bagging 3 tries last week, Antonio Winterstein is now the Cowboys leading try scorer with 10 and he has been the 1st try scorer of the match in 3 of their last 6 games. Like the Cowboys, Melbourne have been entrenched in the Top 4 for most of the season and since Round 8, they haven’t sat lower than 3rd. Their defence and differential both rank 1st, while they have the 4th best attack. They have won 11 of their last 12 and 7 of their last 8 away from AAMI Park, including a 1 point win over the Cowboys at Suncorp Stadium in Round 10. Only once since Round 8 have they trailed at half time and they have won 13 of 14 this season when leading at the break, while the half time leader has won 20 of the last 21 meetings between the Cowboys and the Storm. Melbourne is 10-8 ATS, with a 5-4 cover record on the road, while they have an 8-9 cover record since 2014 as a road favourite. They are the Number 1 Unders side in the NRL, producing a 13-5 result, with an 8-2 Under record on the road, while they are 5-2 Under against their Top 8 counterparts. Suliasa Vunivalu failed to score a try last week but he is yet to go back to back matches without scoring and he continues to be the NRL’s leading try scorer with 17.

Preview

Clearly the game of the round and for mine the likely Grand Final preview.

Yes Thurston is a massive out (should he not play, which is what I expect) but the Cowboys are huge at home (won last 11 here) and have grown significantly as a team this season off confidence and belief from winning the title. Many forget that last week after Thurston left the field the Cowboys still put a further 20 points on the opponent, led by the very capable Morgan.

The Storm have also been outstanding now for many months, and I have no knock at all for them. They have been sitting in the top 3 since Rd 8, have won 11 of their last 12 and 7 of their last 8 on the road, a super record season to date and still only concede 11 pts a week in defence. Bellamy has made some noticeable tweaks to their attack through the last 6 or so weeks given the attacking strike and strength that he now has on his two edges with Koroibete and Vunivalu, now looking to set up short or wide shifts to an edge or a high kick options. They to have a few key forwards either out (McLean, Asofa-Solomona) or in doubt (Glasby).

My numbers have it -5.5 to Cowboys with significant edge them at home, that if correct in game could be an 8 point advantage, I want to be with them. With no Thurston they can be beat, and the Storm are certainly the real deal, great clash but tip and small interest with home side.

Bet 1 unit Cowboys +2.5 $1.90 Ubet


Rabbits vs Raiders

+9.5 Rabbits

Stats

Two sides with opposing form lines kick off Sunday afternoon football when the Rabbitohs host the Raiders at ANZ Stadium. The Rabbitohs are coming of 7 straight losses and are now out of Finals contention, while the Raiders have won 6 of their last 7 and will be looking to maintain their spot in the Top 4. The Raiders hold a 29- 21 all time advantage over the Bunnies, while wins have been shared equally at ANZ Stadium. There have been plenty of points on offer when these sides meet with a TMP average of 52 from the previous 10 clashes, with only 1 of them totaling less than 48. It could a long final 6 weeks for Souths who now have little to play for and have conceded 20 points or more in every match since Round 7 at an average of nearly 30. They have made 2 changes from last week and have now used 31 players, with only the Knights and Warriors using more. They have lost 7 from 7 against the current Top 8 and have failed to score a 1st half point in 4 of those. They are 6-12 ATS to be the equal worst cover team in the competition and have failed to cover in 6 of their last 7 matches at ANZ Stadium. The Rabbitohs are 11-7 Over in TMP’s, with 8 of their last 10 totaling 40 or more. They have conceded the 1st points of the match in 10 of their last 13 and have trailed at half time in 12 of those. The Raiders have won 4 of their last 5 against a bottom 8 opponent and have won 7 of their last 8 when starting as a favourite. Only once this season have they been out of the Top 8 and they are now in the Top 4 for the 1st time since Round 5. They have a soft run home, with 4 of their remaining 6 games against sides currently ranked 10th to 14th, while they face the Sharks and Storm in back to back weeks in Rounds 22 and 23 so a Top 4 finish is a distinct possibility. Canberra has the 7th ranked defence while both their differential and their attack rank 4th . They are 11-7 ATS but have a 6-9 cover record since 2014 when laying a small start. The Raiders are the Number 1 Overs side in the NRL, producing a 13-5 result and are a big Overs side in day games, going 10-2 Over in 2016, with a 29-10 record in day games since 2014. After bagging a hat trick last week, Jarrod Croker has now moved to outright 1st as Canberra’s leading try scorer with 14.

Preview

This looks a game style much more to the Raiders liking and their strengths (as opposed to last week) and so I want to bet with them here.

I shied away from betting the Raiders last week as the  ad lib style of game that it looked like becoming concerned me. The Warriors can play, and then lead their opponents into a near touch footy style of play, which can pull sides off their focus, strengths, and lead to multiple errors and catch up styled play, and that’s exactly what the Raiders got sucked into last week. This is much more them, a meat and vegies basics styled game pattern of roll through the middle, work hard, earn the field position and then the points sort of game and the stuff they are best suited to.

Clearly the Rabbits are a mess, lost 7 straight now, lucky they were not put away with an embarrassing margin last Monday night when down 18-0, and lose another key forward which they can ill afford to with such a thin player list now. I just can’t see how they hold the Raiders big men through the middle, keep conceding field position and then points.

As we know the Raiders can be tricky to catch, and they can play in patches, but gee this looks ready made for them if they can keep their head and stick tight to their strengths. Given all of this I think we are much smarter to look to play them under the key number of 8 as opposed to teh current market position of 10, so take the tri bet option Raiders to win by more than 6.5 points.

Bet 2 units Raiders tri bet >6.5 $1.81 William Hill


Eagles vs Knights

-22.5 Eagles

Stats

For the 1st time in a month, the Sea Eagles return to Brookvale Oval where they will face a Newcastle side destined for the Wooden Spoon. The Sea Eagles have won 9 of the last 11 games played against the Knights, including the last 5 straight, while Newcastle has not won a game at Brookvale Oval for 10 years. Manly are looking to make a late charge as the race for a spot in the Finals intensifies. They have now won 3 in a row and another win this week could see them move from 12th to 9th if other results go their way. After conceding nearly 30 points a game during their 7 game losing run, the Sea Eagles have conceded an average of 10.7 since the start of their winning run. They are ranked 13th in attack, while their defence and differential both rank 11th. Manly is 8-10 ATS and have covered their last 4 straight. They have an 11-8 cover record at Brookvale Oval since 2014 when giving a start, but have covered in only 2 of 5 over the same period when chasing a double digit advantage. The Sea Eagles are 10-8 Under in TMP’s, with their last 3 at Brookvale all finishing that way. Jorge Taufua has been the Sea Eagles 1st try scorer in his last 3 matches against the Knights and is Manly’s leading try scorer with 9. It’s been the season from hell for the Knights who are looking at equaling a club record of 13 consecutive losses should they lose this match. The Knights have had to call on 34 player’s season to date, which is the most of any club. They are yet to register a win on the road, having lost 10 from 10 and 5 of those road losses have been by 30 points or more. Newcastle are 7-11 ATS, with a 3-7 cover record away from home, while they have covered in only 2 of their last 8 when getting a double digit advantage. In TMP’s they are 10-8 in favour of the Overs, with a 6-4 Over record on the road at an average of 47.

Preview

20 pts is a decent line, but the Eagles are warming up, covered tehir last 4 straight, back at Brookvale, outstanding record over Knights (and long term at this ground) and for and against now becomes very important to them and in this game, if they are hungry and can stay focused I expect they will look to work hard for points. Knights look in trouble again, 4 or 5 key outs with whispers of possible more through coming days, they got beat by margin of 32 last week, into another difficult away game and some of their outs are critical. Eagles keep their head then they win by plenty.

More to follow.


Titans vs Sharks

+5.5 Titans

Stats

Round 21 comes to a conclusion in a Top 8 clash when the 7 th placed Titans host the ladder leaders Cronulla. There has been very little between these sides since the Titans entered the comp in 2007, with the Sharks currently holding a 2 game advantage head to head, while wins have been shared equally from the 4 games played at CBus Stadium. Recent meetings have been closely fought contests, with 6 of the previous 7 clashes decided by 6 points or less and one would hope that this will again be the case. The Titans have struggled for wins against their Top 8 counterparts, winning only 2 of 8, but they have won 3 of their last 4 at home and have averaged 28 points a game during that time. They are ranked 7 th in attack, while their differential and defence both rank 8th . They are the Number 1 side ATS and have now covered in 13 of their 18 matches, including their last 7 night matches, while they have also covered in 9 of their last 10 as an underdog and 8 of their last 10 games of MNF. In TMP’s they are 10-8 Over, while they are 7-3 Under in MNF since 2014. Monday night matches have also favoured the Unders in 2016 with a 13-6 result. Nene Macdonald crossed again last week to make it 5 consecutive matches where he has scored and he leads the way for the Titans with 9 tries for the season. The Sharks are looking for 16 straight wins to move to equal 3 rd on the all-time list for consecutive games won. Their last defeat was a Monday night road game back in Round 3 but they have won 4 straight Monday fixtures since then. In 7 of their last 8 games of MNF, the winning margin has been by 12 points or less, while a margin of 1-12 has been the result in 13 of the 19 games of MNF in 2016. Cronulla sits on top of the ladder for the 6th week in a row, they have the 3rd best differential, off the back of the 3rd best defence and the best attack in the competition. They are 12-6 ATS and have covered in 7 of their 8 away games, including the last 7 straight, while they have covered their last 4 when laying a start on the road. The Sharks are 10-8 Under in TMP’s and are 8-4 Under in MNF since 2014. Valentine Holmes picked up a double last week and is now 2nd on the ladder for most tries with 15 and is now 2 clear of Sosaia Feki as the Sharks leading try scorer.

Preview

Not a game I want to get involved with as there are a number of angles either way. Titans as we know have been very good underdogs and have the best season to date line cover record of any team, should be advantaged at home but a) have significant doubts over Peats and Taylor playing (major outs) and b) a poor record vs top 8 sides (and now meet a top 2 side). The Sharks are shooting for 16 straight wins, and have covered the line at their last 7 away games, a formidable record and one I don’t want to take on here with only a two try (or less) line.

The Titans are plucky, and aim up, but the Sharks have been at a different level across the last 3 months. They are winning against good opponents, they have grown in confidence and belief, and now also have gears in being able to step things up as and when required – as we have seen through recent weeks when facing near defeat.

I think the market handicap is right for this and a game best left alone. The Sharks should win, final team selections 60 mins prior to kick off will be crucial, I can’t split an advantage either way.


 

 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 21

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

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