Free Preview & Bet – Caulfield Guineas 2013 &#8...

 

Caulfield Guineas
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Caulfield Guineas Bet

Caulfield R10#4  LONG JOHN $4.20 (Bet365)

I find it very hard to go past LONG JOHN here. He is yet to miss a place in 6 starts (4 wins). He has all the relevant historical factors in his favour, was the best run in the Guineas Prelude, meets the winner and 3rd placegetter 2kg better for that run, and is crying out for 1600m. I’d much prefer the race to be at Flemington for him, and Barrier 1 at Caulfield is a slight concern, but I think the speed of the race is likely to suit and Barriers 1-3 have won 3 of the last 4 editons. He drew an inside barrier in the Prelude and it didn’t seem to affect him there, more the distance that beat him rather than the draw. $4.20 on Unitab and Betstar this morning is good enough but that is about the minimum I want to take WIN ONLY.

Free Tip

Doomben R5#5  TORNADO MISS $5.50 (Bet365)

Caulfield Guineas History

Here are the last 15 winners of the race followed by the most pertinent historical factors which might lead us to this years winner.

2012 All Too Hard (3) D.Dunn

2011 Helmet (8) K McEvoy

2010 Anacheeva (1) L. Nolan

2009 Starspangledbanner (1)

2008 Whobegotyou (11) M. Rodd

2007 Weekend Hussler (2) B.Rawiller

2006 Wonderful World (8) L.Nolan

2005 God’s Own (12) G.Boss

2004 Econsul (4) C.Munce

2003 In Top Swing (4) N. Callow

2002 Helenus (7) S.King

2001 Lonhro (10) D.Gauci

1999 Redoutes Choice (1) J.Cassidy

1998 Kenwood Melody (4) R.Dye

1997 Encounter (4) R.Dye

a) Barriers 1 to 4 (8 of last 15)

b) Guineas Prelude easily best guide

c) An ability to race midfield or near the pace- The positive this year is that the track has been racing worse than Good all Spring and times have been Slowish. It is a decent sized field this year which appears to have a little more speed in it than usual which might give a backmarker it’s chance.

d) 18 of the last 23 winners have won or placed in a Group race at it’s previous start.

The 2010 edition was one by Anacheeva (barrier 1 sat 3rd just behind pace). 2011 Helmet (Barrier 8 but he crossed early to lead field) 2012 All Too Hard (barrier 3 got back a little but came around field on turn in fast run race).

2 of those 3 winners out of Guineas Prelude, the other came via Geoge Main Stakes 4th. Similar for Dissident on Saturday.

Looks a pretty even field with no actual standout which historically might suggest that those in barriers 1-4 could be the ones to have more confidence in. Conversely at first look there seems to be above average speed in this edition so a midfield/backmarker type should get it’s chance and a wide barrier might not be fatal.

Race History (c/. Trackdata)

Favourites < 6/4 have won 3 of 6 events (50%), while Favourites < 5/2 have won 5 of 13 events (40%).

Runners < 4/1 have won 8 of 19 events (40%), while Runners < 8/1 have won 12 of the last 14 events (85%), but 13 of 19 overall (70%)

Runners drawn Barriers 1 to 4 have won 9 of the last 14 events (65%), and 10 of 19 overall (55%).

Runners who had (a) won a Group 1 race during this preparation, or (b) finished 1st or 2nd in either the Guineas Prelude, Stutt Stks, Spring Stks or Stan Fox Stks have won 13 of the last 15 events (85%) – this stat looks a little out of date.

Runners placed in a Group race at their most recent start have won 14 of the last 17 events (85%), and 14 of 19 overall (75%), noting that Starspangledbanner (2009) was desperately unlucky at his last start.

Lead-up Runs

Without a doubt the best guides in recent years since the Prelude became a G3 in 2001 have been:

Prelude – 4 winners and all ran Top 4 in the Prelude

Stutt -2 winners and both won the Stutt

Stan Fox -2 winners and both won that race but only MASQUERADER (5th) comes from the race this time

The Beaten Favs Roll of Honour is littered with Stan Fox winners (5), Stutt winners (3) and Rupert Clark winners and r/up (3)

Barriers

Looking at the winners of the last 15 or so editions double figure gates have not been kind with only freakish performances or freak horses overcoming that handicap (WBGY (11), GOD’S OWN (12) & LONHRO (10). Incidentally all 3 of those were on Dead rated tracks. Trackdata’s stats do need updating but amazingly 13 of the last 18 winners came from 1 to 4.

Speed

Historically the first half mile tends to be run faster, the exceptions being HELENUS, LONHRO and STARSPANGLEDBANNER, the latter being extreme in that they ran a full 3 seconds faster for the last half mile

Position in the Run

The wide gate winners unsurprisingly came from worse than midfield but other than that it’s been a mixed bag though with those 3 exceptions, all those winning on Dead or better have been in the front half of the field at the halfway point.

 

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Free Preview – NRL Grand Final 2013

 

NRL 2013 – Preview – Grand Final

2013 Individual H2H Game Tips –  132 / 199   66.34%

Roosters

RTP Handicap

Roosters -5.5 v Eagles (market Roosters -2.5)

Key Team Stats

Head to Head: Roosters have won last 3 straight (prior had lost 4 straight)

At Ground:

Roosters have won 4 of their last 4, including 2 games this season

Eagles have won 7 of their last 8, including 1 game at ground this season

Key Finals Stats (with thanks to Mark Hull @footyassist follow Mark on twitter)

           Roosters defence has delivered 20 try less halves season to date, 3 of these have been against the Eagles

–          Over the last 10 years the margin outcomes are split 50/50

–          The 5 x 1-12 margin outcomes have had a total match points average of 27

–          The 5 x 13+ margin outcomes have had a total match points average of 40

–          The Eagles have not been beaten 13+ this season

–          The team to score the last try of the match have been Premiers in 9 of the last 10 Grand Finals

–          The team with a half time lead has won 8 of the last 10 Grand Finals

–          The team to score the first try of the match has won the last 6 Grand Finals, while 75% of teams have won throughout the 2013 season when crossing first.

–          In 6 of the 8 matches during this year’s Final Series the first try has not been scored until after the 8th minute (75%) as opposed to 46% during the regular season

–          A penalty goal has been the first scoring play in 3 of the 8 Finals matches (37.5%) as opposed to 6% during the regular season, interestingly the odds on this play have gone from $13 in Rd 26 to $11 in Week 1 and now down to $7.50 for the GF

–          The side trailing at half time has been restricted to 6 points or less in the second half in the last 10 Grand Finals

 

Game Preview
Roosters v Eagles

And so the big dance has arrived!!

Three weeks ago I suggested that this match up in the opening week of the finals series looked a potential Grand Final preview, and so it was providing for mine the highlight game to date of this finals series with the Roosters coming away with a 4-0 result. Both sides have significant ins here since that last meeting with Waerea-Hargreaves and Cordner for the Roosters and Brett Stewart in for the Eagles.

For mine we have the two best sides of the season meeting in the final title game, arguably the two best defensive and attacking sides – Roosters for 27 pts against 13.5 pts per game, the Eagles 25 pts for and 15.2 pts against per game. Interestingly, it’s often quoted that defence wins September – well in this instance that again rings true as we have the two best defensive teams of season 2013 facing off for the final prize.

And what of their form through this finals series? The Eagles may well hold a slight advantage through a stronger side of the draw (and form line), they are battle hardened off consecutive games and come through Rabbits, Sharks, Roosters (with the Storm and Cowboys in behind this form). The Roosters have had the benefit of a tough first up game through the Eagles, a week off and then a clear points result over the Knights last week.

The Eagles have stood up and been counted when it’s mattered through recent weeks. They bunkered down for the fight through the last 20 minutes against the Sharks when fatigue looked to have them beat and then rose to the occasion against the Rabbits with an amazing second half turn around win.

There is no doubting the quality of their halves, their ability to strike on either side of the field, the quality and speed of their edge shifts and the attack combinations of the Stewart brothers, Cherry-Evans x Lyon x Williams (right) and Foran x Matai x Taufua (left). I do now hold concerns about them being 4th week up and the possible mounting injury and or physical toll, they’ve now lost Fa’asao (thins their bench depth) while Watmough certainly looked a passenger for the most part last week (struggling with a crook ankle injury). Wear and tear impacts on every side through a finals campaign but if Watmough can not play anywhere near his best and or they have a depleted or thinning quality offering off their bench I have no doubt it will weaken them across the distance against a very big and physical opponent.

The Roosters look cherry ripe for their final outing. They have a choice of forward riches and depth up front with at least 13 players to choose from for their final list (more on this in a moment). Like the Eagles they have quality in form halves, classy edge combinations and a back 7 who have strike and points in them. They have on occasions been found out defensively on either edge (Pearce and Kenny-Dowall on their right and Maloney on their left), generally it’s been well managed but if isolated and targeted they do have some issues. Their attack was sharp last week, they played direct and split the Knights 11 times, a confidence building effort in the lead up to the final game.

Both sides play slightly different approaches to their attack. The Roosters like to roll forward with a big physical middle and then play on the back of any momentum or room with more direct shots from the 9, 7 or 6 or edge back rowers. While the Eagles play their yardage game well enough but have a far greater preference toward quick shifts to either edge and provide their wider combinations with greater opportunity to run the ball.

Defensively both sides are obviously very good – as we saw a few weeks ago with their 4-0 contest although the Eagles have since let through 3 tries in each of the following games. The Roosters efforts year to date are somewhat remarkable holding 20 halves of football try less, with three of them being across their last two games.

I have the Roosters marked with two points of advantage –

1/ Their forward size and depth – they have size and muscle to dominate through the middle with a big 4 man middle rotation (JWH, Moa, Nuuausala and either Nappa, O’Donnell or Kennedy) and then a quality list of edge backrowers in SBW, Guerra, Cordner and Aubusson. With Cordner’s likely return they have two key ins in addition to the forward list they played the Eagles with three weeks ago and for mine a heap of depth that will maintain sustained forward pressure deep into the second half.

2/ What should be an advantage of one week’s less wear and tear, and the fact that on the back of this they look on the up and peaking into the final decider.

I have no significant knock on the Eagles, they certainly can win and were only one line break away from the Roosters three weeks ago. But their best is with Watmough at his best (which he hasn’t looked) and I’m concerned at how easily they were able to turn last week’s second half against the Rabbits into a comfortable victory (but, to be fair there can be questions over both contestants second half opponents last week).

Looks a cracking game and match up and we should see a very physical opening 15 minutes. I expect the Roosters power through the middle to prevail, them to have their nose in front into half time and kick clear across the final 15 minutes.

Roosters by 10

Betting Options: There are various options through the Roosters, either at the Line -2.5, Tri Bet over 6.5 or a Margin 1-12. Try scoring options – Jennings as any time try scorer, Tuivasa-Sheck first try scorer. Man Of The Match – my preference (in order) Pearce, Friend, SBW.

 

Enjoy the big dance!!

 

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NRL Tips, NRL Selections, NRL Previews, NRL Betting

NRL Sunday – Free Game Previews

 

Sunday NRL Previews
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Individual Game Tips –  22/32  68.7%

Bulldogs, Titans, Sharks, Cowboys, Rabbits, Dragons, Roosters, Storm

Sunday Free Game Previews
Dragons v Knights

 

Dragons

Knights

RTP Rating

 

-3.5

H2H Opened

$2.30

$1.62

Line Opened

-1.5

 

Head to Head

Won 7 of last 10

 

At Ground

Won 8 of last 10

Lost 6 of last 10

Home/Away

80%

30%

 

Kogarah: 3.00pm Sunday

Interesting clash this, all the more so being at Kogarah where the Dragons are very good having won 11 of their last 13 here. They got their season started with a positive win against the Sharks last week, more importantly it being an away game and with some tweaks to their attack. It was noticable that they wanted to play an up tempo game with a far quicker play the ball and far greater emphasis on second phase off load play which broke their opponent up nicely. They will at least take some confidence out of winning and be difficult to roll here if they can play to their strengths of yardage up front and Sowards long kicking game (hence positive field position). Aside from the Brookvale diaster the Knights have been very good, Roberts a key inclusion at 7 adding some positive spark and individual play which is complementing Mullen at 6, they have a nice mix through the middle and then to either edge. Their test here is in aiming up on the road off the back of what happened at Brookie and a 3/10 away record. I have a slight leaning to the Dragons (for whom this is also a test) on the back of their very good form at the ground, but I’ll be happy to just watch and learn some more about both.

Tip: Dragons

Last Word: Home side very tough to beat here (Kogarah), and carry an excellent H2H record. I want to see the Knights prove themselves on the road at these difficult venues.

Betting Interest: Line ball betting game best left alone.  

 

Raiders v Roosters

 

Raiders

Roosters

RTP Rating

 

-2.5

H2H Opened

$2.65

$1.48

Line Opened

 

-5.5

Head to Head

Won 5 of last 10

 

At Ground

Won 7 of last 10

Lost 5 of last 7

Home/Away

70%

20%

 

Canberra: 6.30pm Sunday

Another good clash here. Raiders best as we know is at home (won 7 of their last 10 here) and come of a credible effort last Monday night when away at Newcastle although they have picked up a few key injuries. The key issue with the Raiders continues to be critical errors and or ill discipline at important stages of each game with them rarely able to sustain the pressure and close out a result, last Monday a perfect example when they led 12-10 out of half time yet were then comfortably run over. I expect that they’ll face plenty of frustration here against their opponents quality defence. The Roosters have been good winning their last 3, as suggested their defence impressive and tight although we have to wonder how deep that form is through the disgracful offering from the Eels last week. Their combinations are gaining confidence, Maloney and SBW’s influence notable and we’ll see a very interesting head to head contest up front with the clash of two big front rows. The issue here is a very poor away record (2/10) and at ground record (2/7) which evens the likely contest up considerable. I like what the Roosters are doing and they have the defence to close their opponent out which is what I expect to happen but I’m happy to just watch what unfolds.

Tip: Roosters

Last Word: Roosters on trust, they are very poor away and come off questionable form strength (Eels), Raiders best is at home.

Betting Interest: I could nearly take the start, but then I realised it was the Raiders whom we are never quite sure which one turns up! Leave alone.

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©Copyright Reading The Play  All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL Tips, NRL Selections, NRL Previews, NRL Betting