NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 3 Preview

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 3 Preview

 

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


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Origin 2016 – Game 3


 

Origin 2016 – Game 3 Recommended Bets

 

QLD $2.05

Total Points Over 36.5 $1.90

Anytime Try Scorer: Gavin Cooper $4.50

Man of the Match: Jonathon Thurston $8.00

The above bets are the favoured bet types MrG has recommended for this game.

 

NSW vs QLD

Sydney

 

Preview

QLD lead the series 2-0

Of the last 7 dead rubber games on 4 occasions the side leading 2-0 have gone on to win the series as a clean sweep (3-0)

The last 3 times NSW have been up against it (down 2-0) into a dead rubber game at home they have lost all 3

So lets just recap. QLD have now won 10 of the last 11 series. But, they are beatable, and have been in my opinion through recent years. After winning the series 3 years ago NSW had enough ball to win two games in Game 1 2015 yet couldn’t win; then won Game 2 yet were then soundly flogged (52-6) in the series decider Game 3. This year NSW (at home) in Game 1 once again had enough ball to win two games on one night yet could only score one try and lost (6-4); lost Game 2 (26-16) and now face a dead rubber game back at home.

Through the last 4 years under Daley as coach NSW have averaged approx. 10 points in attack, and consistently shown an obsession for a bash and barge, defensive and negative approach. We don’t have to be major students of the game to understand that scoring around 10 points each contest ain’t going to win you many at this level.

The great Choppy Close made a wonderful point in a radio interview a few weeks ago about NSW, they’ve been obsessed through recent years with how to shut QLD down not how to play their own game, and importantly pick and play to some strengths. Summed it up beautifully!

Do you see a pattern developing here?

And please don’t give me that line that this QLD side are so good, and such a champion team, and blah blah blah. They have been, an outstanding team, for many years, but they have been very beatable through the last 4 to 5 years, the problem for NSW has been direction, plan and selection.

Now initially I think the NSW team changes are positive. Tedesco, Jack Bird, Graham and Moylan are the way of the future for NSW. Tedesco and Bird reek class, especially the former who is just an attacking genius with 11 tries, 11 try assists and some 80 tackle breaks already season to date – he was an absolute must. Finally Graham has been recognised, and will join Frizelle who was a stand out as best player for NSW in game 2 (on debut). But if we dig a little deeper they are still playing with 5 front rowers (for goodness sake why), a make shift 7, make shift 6 and scattered across their backs list 3 centres and 3 fullbacks. Still the reliance on 5 middle forwards, key attacking / backs playing out of tehir accustomed positions and from latest reports Moylan to start at #6 a role he is yet to accomplish himself at at club level yet now after a few days in camp (and after being dropped) he’ll now start in a key play making role.

NSW can win, and they have a dead rubber event that should be in their favour. But they still have lots of ifs and buts, key ifs and buts about their game plan and combinations that worry me, and more often than not major ifs and buts that doesn’t work at this level.

QLD, well I can’t tell you anything you don’t already know. They are winners, they win at counting sheep in their sleep. Players like Smith, Thurston, Cronk and co just seem to eat this stuff for breakfast (or when allowed to). Watching them through the last 12 months it has almost looked like they have known what NSW were going to throw at them and just stood back like the prized fighter and take a few shots and almost laughed is that all you have got. NSW haven’t asked questions of them which has allowed them to just roll with the game, and step up when they had a half chance, or when it mattered.

If NSW chose to play up tempo (quick play the balls, play direct off #9, ball play off their back row and engage the #1) they have points, they have advantage and they can win. But if Daley is going to use 5 big forwards then this is going to slow them down. The next question is how do the combinations work across the back 7. If they fire they have skill and points, but it’s a major question. But I have little confidence that NSW can get this right.

What’s that old line about poking a champion in the eye? I don’t think this QLD team is finished yet. They know how to step up when it matters, and this game will still matter to them. I expect they’ll clearly target the inexperience of the halves combination, pepper Moylan and once again work over NSW’s right edge defence. In Game 2 they also made some smart unexpected raids at NSW’s left edge as well (multiple tries) which I’m sure we’ll see again. I also expect Thurston leads the way here, he has been near best in each of the opening two games, in quality club form and makes a habit of playing blinders on this stage.

For mine QLD 28-18


 


 

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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 3 Preview

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 2 Preview

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 2 Preview

 


Origin 2016 – Game 2


 

Origin 2016 – Game 2 Recommended Bets

 

QLD -4.0 $1.90

QLD 1-12 $2.75

Man of the Match: Cameron Smith $9.00

The above bets are the favoured bet types MrG has recommended for this game.

 

QLD vs NSW

Brisbane

 

Preview

A loss into game 2 would see QLD again win the series, and such a staggering 10 of the last 11 – NSW have much to play for! Let’s then put the potential size of that hurdle into some perspective. On the back of having lost 9 of the last 10 series NSW have a very poor record at the ground losing 8 of their last 10 here and to date have been devoid of any attack focus and points. And, critically, when it has mattered in past crunch games like this one when the pressure has been amplified (series result on the line) have more often than not folded quicker than a three legged card table (game 3 last year at this ground thumped 52-6…).

Consider these recent facts as we look at game 2

QLD’s attack / points at their last 10 outings in Brisbane:

W 52-6

W 32-8

L 8-12

W 26-6

W 21-20

W 34-24

W 16-12

W 34-6

L 16-28

W 30-0

So QLD have won 8 of their last 10 outings in Brisbane (7 of their last 8) and importantly averaged 27 points per game in attack.

Then consider the last 10 outings for NSW with Daley as coach, at all grounds, and the lack of attack / points in their game plan.

4, 6, 26, 10, 8, 6, 12, 10, 6, 14 – 10 games with only 3 where they have scored more than 10 points. Huston, we have a problem!

I think Daley and Fulton have dug themselves a massive hole through recent years and are now struggling to find a way out. They went down a path 3 years ago of attempting to shut QLD down, defend them out of the game and so have been picking sides big on muscle, size, 5 or 6 big front rowers so as to just bash and barge forward, try and dominate field position, pick up a try or two along the way and hope they end up in front by full time. Across these last 10 games they have won 4, luckily enough 2 of them in one series which enabled their breakthrough series win, but the facts speak for themselves, this negative low error defensive approach has led to only a 40% win record, negative boring games and dragged what used to be the best vs the best high quality Origin games into a thing long on the past. After all the huff and puff talk prior to game one, and then a 6-4 loss making significant team changes would admit error, and so down the same path they continue….

The other problem that the game 1 loss has caused is it has turned Daley’s per series plan on its head. With two games in Sydney this series his plan with the above approach was to win games 1 and 3 with this arm wrestle, defensive low error plan and do their best in Brisbane. Now he’s down 0/1 and facing a possible series loss on the Marons favoured turf, and either has to ensure NSW can tackle QLD out of this game or adjust his plans and manufacture some points, and I’d suggest they are going to need a minimum of 3 but more likely 4 tries to win. Their record to date wouldn’t endear you with confidence of that happening. See how that hole just seems to be getting deeper?

In watching QLD play and defend this through recent seasons, in particular game 1 of this series you could almost see them giggling to themselves. It’s like watching a car crash in slow motion, you know what’s coming, what’s unfolding, play after play with little variation or change, just defend it. NSW had enough ball and field position in game 1 to have won two games yet their only try came from a doubtful forward pass with a rare passing play at the line. Sound familiar? It’s like a broken record result or these last few years where NSW have had significant ball and field position and been beat. Thurston summed it up perfectly post game one when asked of Daley’s post match bleatings about the refs, saying “so they had that much ball, that much field position and couldn’t score and now its the refs fault”.

Brisbane offers a much different ground / grass surface that is much drier under foot for night games, and combined with the helpful advantage of a screaming full house, their significant past record at the ground and the attacking skill their team is laced with QLD are well advantaged here and most times end up playing attacking footy.

For NSW to be a chance here they have to change things up somewhat. They have to be prepared to ask more questions of QLD’s defence with some constructed attack plays, a preparedness to off load and ball play and open their opponents defensive line up. And don’t think QLD are not ready to be beat, with the right plan and personal they are. They have an aging list, this is probably one of the weakest forward line ups they have offers up for many years and lack mobility if tested against clever dummy half and forward ball play, which in turn would open them up and offer room to play. They have very rarely been put under any pressure on the scoreboard either, and many of their frailties would be exposed if the focus was on ball play, attack and points. They can be beat, just depends what plan you want to throw at them!

For QLD I think we’ll see far more expansive ball movement and emphasis on attack, and I certainly think they’ll see an option to target their favoured left edge (Inglis and Boyd and Oates) running at two questionable defenders in Walker and Ferguson. I think this will be a significant focus, and I expect these two will cop a hell of a work over.

This game looks QLD’s to lose. They walk in here with significant advantage of home track, leading 1 up in the series, some believe and confidence, knowledge that they’ve done this before, left attack edge strength, class and experience where it matters and fanatical home support.

For mine QLD 24-14


 


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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 2 Preview

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 1 Preview

state_of_origin_free_game_previews_reading_the_play

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 1 Preview

 


Origin 2016 – Game 1


 

Origin 2016 – Game 1 Recommended Bets

 

NSW H2H $1.85

NSW 1-12 $2.70

Total Points Under 31.5

Man of the Match: Boyd Cordner $23

The above bets are the favoured bet types MrG has recommended for this game.

 

NSW vs QLD

Homebush

Stats

The Blues have won four of last six encounters with the Maroons that have been played at ANZ Stadium and they have also recorded six wins from the previous eight Origin openers played at the ground. The Maroons have however, won “Game 1” in five of the last seven series and have a much improved record at ANZ Stadium, recording six wins to five against the Blues since 2008. A winning margin of 1-12 points has been the result in eighteen of the last twenty two Origins and also in the last twelve series openers, while the last fourteen Origin’s played at ANZ Stadium have been decided by ten points or less. NSW have been first to score in “Game 1” in five of the last eight games with four tries and a penalty goal, while Queensland has scored the last try of the match in nine of the last ten series openers.

A winger or centre has been the first try scorer in seven of the last ten matches to open an Origin series. Nine of the last fifteen matches have had total match points of 28 or less. When a try has been the first scoring play, the team that scored the try has gone on to win the match on seventeen of the last twenty three occasions. Jonathon Thurston is in his twelfth straight year of Origin and has claimed five “Man of the Match” awards to sit in outright 2nd, just three behind “The King”, Wally Lewis. Three of JT’s five MOM awards have come in game one of a series and with his current form its little wonder he is again installed as the favourite at $8.00. There have been 34 three games series’ and the winner of Game 1 has gone on to win the series on 25 occasions (73%). Both sides have named debutants, while Queensland holds a distinct advantage with experience, having played a total of 251 Origin games while the Blues have played just 111. There are just three changes to the Maroons side that defeated the Blues by 46 points in Game 3 of 2015, missing are Jacob Lillyman (11), Will Chambers (4) and Justin Hodges (24) and in their place are Josh McGuire (2), Corey Oates and Justin O’Neill (both on Debut), while the Blues have made nine changes, in are Reynolds, Moylan, Mansour and Walker (all on Debut), Fifita (4), Maloney (3), Ferguson (1), Farah (13) and Bird (16). Those to miss out are Hodkinson (6), Hopoate (5), Merrin (13), Scott (11), the Morris twins (12 & 13), Ennis (8), Pearce (15) and Hoffman (14). In total try comparisons, the Maroons current side has scored 58 tries to the Blues 11, with Greg Inglis (17) and Darious Boyd (16) both scoring more tries than the entire NSW squad. Cameron Smith will become the most capped Origin player of all time, with 37 appearances, surpassing Darren Lockyer.

The last four series openers have resulted in total match points of 28 points or less and ten of the last fifteen matches have totaled less than the 33.5 mark set for this match. The slippery surface of ANZ Stadium has also contributed to low scoring affairs and the last six meetings at the ground have gone Unders with an average of 21 and a game high if 28 in Game 2, 2012.

Preview

Game 1 in Origin across the last 6 to 8 years has consistently been tight close games and I expect just the same again here.

I favour NSW with a slight edge for a number of reasons –

– Daley has made 8 changes across his list from the team soundly beaten in game 3 last year and for once I think he has got much of it right. Clearly he wants to play a forward dominated muscle game through the middle 3rd of the park and look to close the game down to a physical arm wrestle. With the 9 man forward team list he has named I do think they hold some advantage here. I’m told the bench to consist of Klemmer, Tamou and Fifita in support of the starting middle of Gallen, Woods and most probably Bird. To then support his intent and play for smart field position he has two quality kickers in the halves in Adam Reynolds and Maloney and a fast nimble ball return runner at fullback (Moylan). I think it’s pretty clear what his game plan is.

– In addition to NSW’s power game QLD have selected 3 forwards in my opinion on reputation and not form – Myles, Guerra and Papalii. Each have been all but statues for their clubs through the last month or longer playing poorly and offering little and I am happy to risk that that continues (although we have seen numerous times form miracles occur for QLD players).

– Another key factor is the ground, the loose playing surface and the rain now forecast across Tuesday and Wednesday. Homebush at the best of times is dam and slippery underfoot for Origin games especially for any lateral or speed play to the edges, should the forecast rain come then this will only further enhance simple tactics centred toward forward physical play for much of the game done the middle third of the park.

QLD, as they have done across the last 8 to 9 years reek some class especially at #9 and #6, but many of their list are now very much at the back end of career, and for mine they look to be carrying some key forwards in the middle on past years performance not recent form. Their left edge attack with Thurston, Inglis, Boyd and Oates is outstanding but I question whether they will get much room to play if playing much on the game on the back foot through the middle and or on a dam slippery surface.

NSW won the series two years ago and were then level pegging into game 3 last year before having their pants pulled down with an embarrassing flogging – in short they have been closer through recent years than for much of the prior 8. They hold a healthy advantage for games played at Homebush winning 4 of the last 6 while the last four series openers have resulted in total match points of 28 points or less and 10 of the last 15 matches have totaled less than the 34.5 mark set for this match. Add some rain and total points under certainly looks a betting interest.

I’m with NSW here, tough physical game led through the middle on what look conditions likely to suit.


 


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Follow us on Twitter at

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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 1 Preview

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.