NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Player Ins Outs

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017 Player Ins Outs

 

The latest key confirmed player Ins and Outs for each NRL club for the Telstra Premiership ahead of the 2017 NRL season.

BRISBANE BRONCOS

Ins: Moses Pangai (Townsville Blackhawks), David Mead (Titans), Tautau Moga (Cowboys), Benji Marshall (Dragons), Mitchell Dodds (Warrington)

Outs: Greg Eden (Castleford), Brett Greinke (Rabbitohs), Corey Parker (retirement), Jarrod Wallace (Titans), Jack Reed (retirement), Carlin Anderson (Cowboys), Darren Nicholls (Panthers), Lachlan Maranta (rugby union)

CANBERRA RAIDERS

Ins: Jordan Turner (St Helens), Dunamis Lui (Dragons), Makahesi Makatoa (Bulldogs), Scott Sorensen (Mounties), Brent Naden (Mounties)

Outs: Lachlan Lewis (Bulldogs), Sisa Waqa (rugby union), Zac Woolford (Bulldogs), Sam Williams (Wakefield), Brenko Lee (Bulldogs), Paul Vaughan (Dragons)

CANTERBURY-BANKSTOWN BULLDOGS

Ins: Zac Woolford (Raiders), Josh Cleeland (Sharks), Rhyse Martin (Townsville Blackhawks), Brenko Lee (Raiders), Tom Carr (Dragons), Francis Tualau (Storm), Richard Kennar (Storm)

Outs: Pat O’Hanlon (retirement), Sam Perrett (retirement), Curtis Rona (rugby union, Western Force), Tim Browne (Panthers), Tony Williams (Sharks), Richard Coorey (released), Makahesi Makatoa (Raiders), Jarrod McInally (Queensland Intrust Super Cup), Graham Clark (released), Jake Kamire (released), Reubenn Rennie (released), Lamar Liolevave (released), Lloyd Perrett (Sea Eagles)

CRONULLA SHARKS

Ins: Manaia Cherrington (Wests Tigers), Tony Williams (Bulldogs), Jeremy Latimore (Panthers), Daniel Mortimer (Titans)

Outs: David Fifita (released), Mitch Brown (Leigh), Josh Cleeland (Bulldogs), Michael Ennis (retirement), Connor Tracey (Rabbitohs), Jesse Sene-Lefao (Castleford Tigers), Ben Barba (released), Jacob Gagan (Knights), Matt McIlwrick (Wests Tigers), Junior Roqica (London)

GOLD COAST TITANS

Ins: Dan Sarginson (Wigan), Jarrod Wallace (Broncos), Kevin Proctor (Storm), Paterika Vaivai (free agent), Tyler Cornish (Roosters)

Outs: Nathan Friend (retirement), David Hala (released), Nene Macdonald (Dragons), David Mead (Broncos), Cameron Cullen (Sea Eagles), Luke Douglas (St Helens), Josh Hoffman (Eels), Greg Bird (Catalans), Jed Cartwright (Panthers), Daniel Mortimer (Sharks), Brian Kelly (Sea Eagles), Matt Srama (retirement)

MANLY SEA EAGLES

Ins: Frank Winterstein (rugby union), Shaun Lane (Warriors), Blake Green (Storm), Cameron Cullen (Titans), Akuila Uate (Knights), Curtis Sironen (Wests Tigers), Lloyd Perrett (Bulldogs), Jackson Hastings (Roosters), Brian Kelly (Titans), Jonathan Wright (Warriors)

Outs: Jamie Lyon (retirement), Tim Moltzen (retirement), Tom Symonds (Huddersfield), Siosia Vave (Eels), Liam Knight (Roosters), Nathan Green (released), Blake Leary (Blackhawks), Issac John (Mounties), Jayden Hodges (released), Rhys Armstrong (released), Fabian Goodall (rugby union), Halaufa Lavaka (released), Tony Satini (Panthers), Dylan Kelly (released), Hugh Pratt (released), Nicho Hynes (released), Darcy Cox (released), Josh Starling (Knights), Jamie Buhrer (Knights), Brayden Williame (Catalans), Matt Parcell (Leeds Rhinos), Feleti Mateo (Salford), Luke Burgess (Catalans)

MELBOURNE STORM

Ins: Josh Addo-Carr (Wests Tigers), Brandon Smith (Cowboys), Vincent Leuluai (Roosters), Jahrome Hughes (Cowboys), Ryley Jacks (Sunshine Coast Falcons)

Outs: Marika Koroibete (rugby union), Josh Kerr (Dragons), Ryan Morgan (St Helens), Blake Green (Sea Eagles), Matt White, Francis Tualau (Bulldogs), Ben Hampton (Cowboys), Richard Kennar (Bulldogs), Kevin Proctor (Titans)

NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS

Ins: Jamie Buhrer (Sea Eagles), Rory Kostjasyn (Cowboys), Ken Sio (Hull KR), Josh Starling (Sea Eagles), Jacob Gagan (Sharks), Joe Wardle (Huddersfield Giants)

Outs: Jeremy Smith (retirement), James McManus (retirement), Kade Snowden (retirement), Robbie Rochow (Rabbitohs), Akuila Uate (Sea Eagles), Jake Mamo (Huddersfield Giants)

NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS

Ins: Carlin Anderson (Broncos), Ben Hampton (Storm)

Outs: Brandon Smith (Storm), James Tamou (Panthers), Jahrome Hughes (Storm), Rory Kostjasyn (Knights), Tautau Moga (Broncos), Ben Hannant (retirement)

PARRAMATTA EELS

Ins: Jamal Fogerty (Burleigh Bears), Siosia Vave (Sea Eagles), Nathan Brown (Rabbitohs), George Jennings (Panthers), Josh Hoffman (Titans), Suaia Matagi (Panthers), Frank Pritchard (Hull FC), Kirisome Auva’a (unattached), Will Smith (Panthers)

Outs: Tyrell Fuimaono (Rabbitohs), Michael Gordon (Roosters), Kieren Moss (Bradford), Anthony Watmough (retirement), Kieran Foran (Warriors), Luke Kelly (Rabbitohs), Danny Wicks (retirement), Vai Toutai (released), Mitch Cornish (Roosters)

PENRITH PANTHERS

Ins: James Tamou (Cowboys), Tim Browne (Bulldogs), Michael Oldfield (Rabbitohs), Darren Nicholls (Redcliffe Dolphins), Mitch Rein (Dragons), Jed Cartwright (Titans)

Outs: Ben Garcia (Catalans), Chris Smith (Sydney Roosters), George Jennings (Eels), Zak Hardaker (Castelford), Jeremy Latimore (Sharks), Suaia Matagi (Eels), Andrew Heffernan (Hull KR), Chris Grevsmuhl (released), Robert Jennings (Rabbitohs), Will Smith (Eels)

SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS

Ins: Tyrell Fuimaono (Eels), Robbie Rochow (Knights), Connor Tracey (Sharks), Robbie Farah (Wests Tigers), Luke Kelly (Eels), Anthony Cherrington (Redcliffe Dolphins), Robert Jennings (Panthers), Brett Greinke (Broncos)

Outs: Joe Burgess (Wigan), Luke Keary (Roosters), Paul Carter (Roosters), Kirisome Auva’a (released), Cameron McInnes (Dragons), Nathan Brown (Eels), Michael Oldfield (Panthers)

ST GEORGE ILLAWARRA DRAGONS

Ins: Josh Kerr (Storm), Nene Macdonald (Titans), Cameron McInnes (Rabbitohs), Shaun Nona (Illawarra Cutters), Paul Vaughan (Raiders)

Outs: Mike Cooper (Warrington), Sebastine Ikahihifo (Huddersfield), Ben Creagh (retirement), Benji Marshall (Broncos), Dylan Farrell (retirement), Tom Carr (Bulldogs), Mitch Rein (Panthers), Dunamis Lui (Raiders), Adam Quinlan (Hull KR)

SYDNEY ROOSTERS

Ins: Michael Gordon (Eels), Luke Keary (Rabbitohs), Liam Knight (Sea Eagles), Zane Tetevano (Wyong Roos), Paul Carter (Rabbitohs), Mitch Cornish (Eels), Brendan Santi (Blackhawks)

Outs: Vincent Leuluai (Storm), Sam Moa (Catalans), Tyler Cornish (Titans), Jackson Hastings (Sea Eagles)

WARRIORS

Ins: Kieran Foran (Eels)

Outs: Raymond Faitala-Mariner (Bulldogs), Thomas Leuluai (Wigan), Shaun Lane (Sea Eagles), Jonathan Wright (Sea Eagles), Henare Wells (Burleigh)

WESTS TIGERS

Ins: Jamal Idris (free agent), Matt McIlwrick (Sharks)

Outs: Josh Addo-Carr (Storm), Jack Buchanan (Widnes), Josh Drinkwater (released), Asipeli Fine (Bulldogs), Lamar Liolevave (Bulldogs), Billy McConnachie (released), Jesse Parahi (Rugby Sevens), Manaia Cherrington (Sharks), Dene Halatau (retirement), Robbie Farah (Rabbitohs), Curtis Sironen (Sea Eagles), Chance Peni (rugby union)

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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At Reading The Play we don’t just provide a bet list, we also offer individual game by game previews, key information, analysis and our experts “read” on what is likely to unfold – an informed opinion. Our subscribers enjoy pre game preview thoughts and rational that not only provides them with a potential betting play but a broader “feel” and connection to each game.

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NRL Tips Game Previews and Recommended NRL Sports Betting at Reading The Play

 

nrl_cowboys_thurston_premiership

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Grand Final

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Grand Final

 

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


NRL Grand Final 2016

 

MrG’s Ratings

-2.5 Storm

 

The Storm have spent all 26 rounds in the top 8, I started them in Rd 1 rated equal third on my personal team ratings (behind the Broncos, Cowboys and equal with Rabbits), they started the finals series equal top rated with the Cowboys and I have improved that rating further through their two finals wins (new peek season rating). The Sharks started the season rated in the bottom half of the top 8, achieved a season peek rating while on their long winning run but I have them positioned back short of that peek off a poor final season run and questionable depth through tehir finals run.


NRL Grand Final Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 3 units Storm to win premiership $2.40 Sportsbet BB (subscribers bet advice 24/09)

Bet 2 units Storm-Sharks under 34.5 $1.91 Sportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Game Preview

 

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Finals Notes:

8 of last 9 Premiers were one of the Top 2 defensive sides that season. This yr that’s Storm & Cowboys

12 of the last 16 Premiers have won the comp off the back of a week off and then winning their Prelim final win

6 of the last 7 grand finalists who had played 4 wks straight, have lost. Cowboys broke this factor for the first time last year

 

Storm vs Sharks

-2.5 Storm

Stats

 

History – Played 31, Storm 21, Sharks 10

At ANZ Stadium – First Meeting

Finals History – Played 1, Storm 1, Sharks 0 Storm’s Record at ANZ Stadium – Played 17, Won 12, Lost 5 Storm’s Finals Record at ANZ Stadium – Played 8, Won 5, Lost 3 Sharks Record at ANZ Stadium – Played 22, Won 7, Lost 15 Sharks Finals Record at ANZ Stadium – Played 2, Won 0, Lost 2

The Numbers for the Storm

 

The Minor Premiers recorded 21 wins and 5 losses to this point to make the Grand Final, with a longest winning streak of 7 from Rounds 7-17. They have been the bench mark in 2016, spending 18 weeks in the Top 2 and were never positioned out of the Top 8. At the conclusion of the regular season their defensive efforts had them ranking at the top of the charts, conceding 302 points at an amazing average of 12.5, while their 261 point differential was also the best in the NRL. Their 563 points in attack ranked 4th at an average of almost 24 PPG. Only on 4 occasions this season have Melbourne conceded more than 18 points. Melbourne scored 96 tries after 26 Rounds to be ranked 4th, while their 51 tries conceded was the best in the competition, with only 6 of those conceded through their middle 3rd, which was also the best record in the league, for the 2nd year in a row. They finished the regular season with a 13-11 record ATS which ranked 5th, with a 7-5 cover record away from home, while they have covered in 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Sharks. In total match points they were the Number 1 Unders side, producing a 19-7 record, with 8 of their last 10 finishing that way, while 9 of their 12 games away from home also went Under. In 4 of their last 6 matches at ANZ Stadium the total match points have finished Under as well. Melbourne has won 18 of 19 in 2016 with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 3 of 7 and in their last 10 matches, only once have they been outscored in the 2nd half. The Storm has scored the 1st try of the match in 15 of their 26 matches and have gone on to win on 14 of those 15 occasions (93%), while a penalty goal has been the 1st scoring play in their last 3 matches, including their last meeting with Cronulla. Melbourne has played 6 games on a Sunday this season and have recorded wins in all 6 of them. This will be Melbourne’s 6th Grand Final appearance since entering the competition in 1998, they won in 1999, 2007 and 2009, but were stripped of the latter 2 for salary cap breaches before claiming another victory in 2012.

The Numbers for the Sharks

 

The Sharks will be looking to end a 50 year drought when they contest just their 4 th Grand Final since entering the competition in 1967 and if successful, will end the longest Premiership drought in history of any side still playing in the competition. They recorded 19 wins, 6 losses and a draw to get to the big dance, their 1st since making the 1997 Super League Grand Final and their 1st in a unified comp since 1978. They set a new club record of 15 consecutive wins from Rounds 4 to 20 before recording just 1 win from their last 6 on the run home. They ranked 3rd in both attack (580 points for at an average of 24.2PPG) and defence (404 points against at an average of 16.8PPG) at the conclusion of the regular season, while their differential rated 4th . In 4 of the Sharks last 7 matches they have conceded 20 points or more. The Sharks scored 99 tries after 26 Rounds to be ranked 2 nd behind the Raiders, while their 67 tries conceded saw them rank 3rd . Their record ATS is 15-11 season to date and they are 9-5 when covering away from Shark Park, while they have covered in 11 of their last 14 when getting a start. Cronulla has a 14-12 total match points record in favour of the Under, with 4 of their last 6 played away from Shark Park totaling 36 or less. The Sharks have won 13 of 16 matches when going to the half time break in front, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 5 of 9. They have given up the 1st try of the match in 5 of their last 7, but have opened the scoring with a penalty goal in 3 of those, while a penalty goal has been the 1st scoring play in 3 of their last 5 Finals matches. Cronulla has the 2nd highest average in the comp for the time of the 1st try and in 14 of their 26 matches the 1st try has been scored after the 7th minute and this has also been the result in 10 of the last 13 Grand Finals. Like Melbourne, the Sharks are undefeated in Sunday matches this season, winning 8 from 8.

Head to Head

 

Melbourne has a dominate record over Cronulla, having won 11 of the previous 13 encounters. They also have a very good record at ANZ Stadium, winning 5 of their last 9, including victories in the 2009 and 2012 Grand Finals. A Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in 11 of the last 13 meetings with the Sharks, while they have scored the 1st try in all 13 of those matches. The home side has won 8 of the last 9 clashes but that will count for little as they meet on neutral ground for only the 2nd time. Both sides had the week off before their Preliminary Final wins which will guarantee that the percentage improves with sides going on to win the Grand Final after the weeks break which currently sits at 75% since 2000. In 5 of the last 6 meetings, the winning margin has been by 13+, with the Storm winning all of those, while the margin result in Grand Finals has been split evenly since 2003, along with last years draw after 80 minutes. Only once in the previous 13 encounters have the Sharks led the Storm at half time, while the half time leader has won 10 of the previous 13 Grand Finals. The Sharks haven’t scored more than 12 2nd half points in their last 17 matches against Melbourne at an average of less than 6, while on average, Melbourne has scored more than two and a half times more points than Cronulla from the past 12 match ups. In 11 of the last 14 meetings the total match points have resulted in Unders, with 8 of the last 11 failing to top 38. Matt Cecchin has refereed 6 Melbourne matches in 2016, with the Storm winning 3 of them and covering a line only twice, while 5 of them have finished Under, with all of those totalling 30 or less. The Sharks have a perfect record under Cecchin this year, winning 4 from 4 and covering in all of them, while they are 3-1 Under. Cronulla coach Shane Flanagan is a former assistant coach of Craig Bellamy’s. Jesse Bromwich has scored in 3 of his last 5 matches against the Sharks.

Mr.G’s Preview

 

Storm have set the benchmark this season winning 15 of their last 18 games and elevating their performance rating month after month on their way to this the ultimate game (and have been top 2 for 20 of the last 28 weeks. As much as many look to pot them for one reason or another this week the facts don’t lie; they finished the minor premiers with an outstanding defensive record having conceded just 12 points a game in today’s modern game across 28 games, a remarkable offering. While you consider those deeds also then consider that 8 of the last 9 premiership titles (and a similar % over time the last 30 years) have been won by one of the top two defensive sides of that season.

The Storms last 3 games have all been pressure contests, Rd 26 to decide the minor premiership (vs Sharks), then a home semi vs defending title holders (Cowboys) then last weeks GF qualifier vs the comps #2 side (Raiders). In those 3 games, 3 big end of season pressure cookers they again have been to the fore defensively conceding just 6, 10 and 12 pts. Yes they have had some significant advantage playing these last 3 games at home, zero travel, but for mine that only then becomes a further advantage into this weeks game. For mine they also come through (hardened further) the tougher side of the draw through quality title contenders in through these last 3 games, Sharks, Cowboys then Raiders.

The Storm also hold a significant head to head advantage, winning 11 of the last 13 contests vs the Sharks.

Certainly they have weakness: they’ve had defensive issues on their left edge (in particular Blair); they like to play a compressed defensive line and can get caught with quick creative ball shifts to the outside (but one has to execute well and prone to error); and they don’t like offload or second phase ball play through and or in behind middle or ruck. But a history of winning 15 of your last 18 and consistently only conceding 12 pts suggests they learn well from their weaknesses and don’t make these mistakes all that often.

The Sharks have also had a super season, and are certainly a real live chance here. They finished top 4, rolled into seasons end on the back of a long quality winning streak and have a significant shot at history here. The joy of getting here (and subconscious acceptance that we have done real well) worries me, as does that big Silverback Ape sitting on their back (no longer a monkey) of nervous expectation in possibly winning their first premiership. Ennis, Lewis and Maloney have been stand outs in their last two finals games, with Gallen they bring plenty of experience and hunger, they are not greenhorns but this is a high pressure week when we are playing for keeps.

A further concern for mine is what depth is really around their recent form. At Rd 20 they sat ranked 3rd in both attack and defence yet across the next 8 weeks slid quickly to mid table. Sure they had numerous half chances in Rd 26 vs the Storm but in another major pressure game (minor premiership) they conceded 26 and were rolled by 20. Their 2nd half effort vs Raiders was nothing but courageous but the Raiders blew that game decisively then they rolled through the Cowboys with what looked ease last week, a side that then looked well out of petrol and limping with injury. And lets add some perspective on that game, the Sharks had 67% of the ball by the 50 minute mark yet only led 14-6 (should well have been 30-6) and lost the 2nd half 18-20.

Technically the Sharks also have their issues. They consistently lack discipline from key players like Ennis, Fifita and Gallen – fine against the also rans but major momentum swingers in these big games. They also prone to cheap handling errors (completion rates) and have their own defensive issues in Townsend and Bird who I expect will see significant traffic and spotting.

The Sharks have to play footy to upset here. They have to ball play, they have to unload, they have to shift and get the tempo of this game quick and rolling – the Storm are near impossible to beat at their own game, to beat them you have to move them around quickly, consistently and shake them up (aka Broncos game plan / win Rd 25). If its to be achieved ball play and ball spread is the name of the game.

I can’t go past the Storm, for mine they hold all the aces. Best defensive team, through quality tough form line and the tougher side of the draw and they hold a decisive edge head to head over their opponent. High discipline, low errors, masters at strangling opponents out of the contest.

Into last weekend and the likely results I expected (and rated) the Storm approx. $1.50 favs, the $1.85 looks very generous.

Also keen on a low scoring game and like the under 34.5 In 11 of the last 14 head to head contests between these two the points have finished under while the Storm longer term are 14-5 under in finals since 2008. Tough tight night GF with defence the likely winner, keen to be with the under 34.5

Suggested Game Plays

Storm $1.85

Under 34.5 $1.90

Clive Churchill Medal (Man of the Match) Cooper Cronk $5.50 or Jesse Bromwich $15.00


Winning Horse Racing Tips

 


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MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Grand Final

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A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL, Horse Racing, NFL, College Football and Football

 

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Finals Wk 3

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Finals Wk 3

 

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


NRL Finals Wk 3 2016 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

Even Sharks vs Cowboys

-10.0 Storm vs Raiders


 

NRL Finals Wk 3 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 1 unit Sharks-Cowboys over 36.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 3 units Storm -6.5 $1.90 William Hill / CrownBet BB

Bet 1 unit live in play half time Cowboys to win (vs Sharks) $7.00 Sportsbet

 

Bet 3 units Storm to win premiership $2.40 Sportsbet BB

 

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Cowboys, Storm


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Finals Notes:

12 of the last 16 Premiers have won the comp off the back of a week off and then winning their Prelim final win

8 of last 9 Premiers were one of the Top 2 defensive sides that season. This yr that’s Storm & Cowboys

6 of the last 7 grand finalists who had played 4 wks straight, have lost. Cowboys broke this factor for the first time last year

 

The above key factors do tell an important story, and of all of this right now the Storm sit in the absolute box seat with a -6.5 to -10.5 position into this weeks games. Should they win as expected, and not pick up any critical injury then I would suggest we are then likely looking at $1.60 favs into the GF, and should they be up against the Sharks right now I would suggest they likely near rolled gold good things as by then the Sharks will be carrying not only a monkey on tehir back having never won a comp by Sunday week it will be the size of a huge silver back gorilla!! If you are looking longer term into the GF then the Storm are the obvious, I’m happy to wait and see, they could be crippled by a key injury and or there is just that something about the Cowboys that on a dry track in an up tempo game they can find some attack and belief to worry them.

 

Sharks vs Cowboys

Even Sharks

 

Stats

HISTORY – Played 40, Sharks 24, Cowboys 16 AT ALLIANZ STADIUM – Played 1, Sharks 1, Cowboys 0

FINALS HISTORY – Played 2, Sharks 1, Cowboys 1

TOP 8 RECORD – Cronulla has won 9 from 13 but have failed to win 3 of their last 4 Cowboys have won 6 from 12, with 4 of the 6 wins coming from 5 games at home

For the 3rd time in 4 seasons, the Sharks and Cowboys go head to head in a Final Series match after never meeting in a Finals Series prior to 2013. The Cowboys embarrassed Cronulla in Week 2 of the Finals last year with a 39 point shut out, while the Sharks knocked out the Cowboys in Week 1 of the 2013 Series in the infamous 7th tackle try incident. The Sharks hold a 24-16 all-time advantage over North Queensland, while they have won 13 of the 18 matches contested in Sydney, including 3 of the last 4. The Sharks have had the week off after a come from behind win against Canberra to make their 1st Preliminary Final since 1997, while the Cowboys are looking to repeat their efforts of 2015 in taking the long road to make it to their 3rd Grand Final with a win over Cronulla. In 4 of the 5 most recent meetings the winning margin has been by 1-12 points, while 4 of the last 6 meetings have failed to top 40 points. After 26 Rounds the Sharks finished 3rd, their best finish since 2008, with a 17-6-1 record. They ranked 3rd in both attack and defence, while their differential rated 4th, but since Round 20 they slipped to 12th in attack and 7th in defence. The Sharks are 14-11 ATS and have covered in their last 4 matches played at Allianz Stadium. In TMP’s they are 14-11 Under and have had Unders results in 5 of their last 6 against a Top 8 opponent. The Sharks have won 12 of 15 with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 5 of 9. Only once in the previous 7 clashes with the Cowboys have they led at half time and they haven’t scored more than 14 1st half points against the Cowboys since 2008, with an average of 7. After 26 Rounds the Cowboys have a 15-9 win loss record, they had the 2nd best attack, scoring 584 points at an average of 24.3, while they were ranked 3rd in defence, conceding 355 points at an average of 14.8. Their 229 point differential also rated 3rd, while since Round 20 they rank 3rd in attack and 2nd in defence. They have a poor record on the road in 2016, winning only 4 of 13 matches and have failed to lead at half time in all 9 of those road losses. They have also been poor at Allianz Stadium, losing their last 5 straight at the ground, as well as losing their last 5 Finals matches contested at the venue. The Cowboys are 13-13 ATS and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 9 away games, while they are 4-4 when covering as a road favourite. In TMP’s they are 15-11 in favour of the Under, including 8 of their last 9 away games, while 7 of the last 10 against a Top 8 opponent have also gone Under. The Cowboys have been great front runners, winning 14 of 14 with a half time lead, while they have lost 10 of 12 when they haven’t been in front after 40 minutes. Justin O’Neill bagged his 3rd double of the season last week to move to equal 1st with Antonio Winterstein as the Cowboys leading try scorer with 13 and he has scored 4 tries from his last 6 matches against Cronulla. A penalty goal has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the Cowboys last 6 Finals matches. The home team has won 11 of the last 13 Final Series matches, while the away side starting as a favourite has won 4 of the last 5 Finals. The home underdog has won only 2 of 10 matches in 2016 with Ben Cummins in charge, while 8 of the last 9 matches with Cummins at the helm have gone Under.

Preview

Looks a very tricky game and I don’t want to play.

The Sharks should have been thumped by the Raiders two weeks ago, but weren’t, they then crawled their way back into the game against all odds and dug deep to last and win. What they did do was again find some belief, I think they take quite a bit out of that, then have the valuable week off, freshen up, get key guys back from injury and will be at near full strength. They’ll play in Sydney, have an army of support, that week off has to be gold (and history suggests it is) and can win.

The plus for the Cowboys is that they come through two very strong form games, high quality, an outstanding game and effort last Friday night and they have some distinct class in key places like Thurston. But. They have been whacked physically the last two weeks, are losing key outs with injury and then have key players playing very busted (Scott, Tamou, etc). Their bench now is no near the advantage it was 12 months ago due to all this wear and tear, and after such a good long run with the same team list they now have had to bloody key youngsters off the next generation ( like Hess, Bowen and Ponga). No knock at all on these guys, enormous talent, but the point I am making is this Cowboys side is not what they were 6 weeks ago, nor 12 months ago.

The Cowboys can still win, they are as resilient as one will ever see, as title holders they have significant belief and they have key people who can make special things happen (what about the extra time try set up play from JT, staggering). The Sharks should have fresh legs, should be advantaged at full strength. They do have a massive monkey on their back of supporter expectation having never won a comp and I’m not convinced the coach is as sharp as required for the real pointy end of the comp. But they can win.

I can’t handicap this any different, no advantage either way, a game I can’t split.

Dry track, all my numbers lead strongly to overs. I think this will open up with two sides who can play some footy, plus some fatigue.

Bet 1 unit Sharks-Cowboys over 36.5 $1.90 Sportsbet


Storm vs Raiders

-10.0 Storm

 

Stats

HISTORY – Played 37, Storm 26, Raiders 11

AT AAMI PARK – Played 5, Storm 2, Raiders 3

FINALS HISTORY – Played 2, Storm 2, Raiders 0

TOP 8 RECORD – Melbourne has won 8 from 12 and won 5 of those from 7 games at home Canberra has won 8 from 13, including 6 of the last 8

The Top 2 sides of 2016 will battle it out in the 2nd Preliminary Final at AAMI Park for the remaining spot in the big dance. Melbourne holds a 26-11 all-time advantage over Canberra, including the 2 previous meetings in Finals, while the Raiders have won 3 of the last 4 clashes at AAMI Park. The teams have met just twice across the last 2 seasons, with both sides recording 1 victory each, while Melbourne won the last meeting at AAMI Park in 2014. Strangely, the home side has won only 3 of the last 10 encounters. Melbourne have had the benefit of the week off which has served them well previously, as they have won 5 of their last 7 Preliminary Finals after registering a win in Week 1, while the Raiders are contesting their 1st Prelim Final since 1997 after disposing of the Panthers last week. Melbourne are the Minor Premiers and have been the bench mark in 2016, spending 18 weeks in the Top 2 and were never positioned out of the Top 8. They come into this match with 2 losses from their last 5, but had won 6 straight prior. Their defensive efforts had them ranking at the top of the charts, conceding 302 points at an average of 12.5, while their 261 point differential was also the best in the NRL. Their 563 points in attack ranked 4th . In the final 7 Rounds of the regular season though, they dropped to 7 th in attack rankings and 3rd in defence. The Storm is 14-11 ATS, with a 7-6 cover record at home, while they have covered in only 2 of their last 7 at home when conceding a start of more than 6 points. In TMP’s they are the Number 1 Unders side in the NRL, with an 18-7 result and have finished that way in 7 of their last 9. They have played 6 matches against their Top 4 counterparts and all 6 of those also finished Under, while 7 of their last 9 have finished Under when they have been favoured by more than 6 points. Melbourne has won 17 of 18 in 2016 with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 3 of 7. The Storm has scored the 1st try of the match on 15 occasions and they have gone on to win 14 of those. Suliasa Vunivalu is the NRL’s Number 1 try scorer with 23 tries in 19 matches since making his debut in Round 7. It’s a milestone match for Cooper Cronk as he plays his 300th match for the Storm and for years now Coach Bellamy has placed plenty of importance on these milestone matches and as always, he will have his side well prepared. Canberra stormed home to finish 2nd after 26 Rounds and only once all season have they been positioned out of the Top 8. They had the best attacking record in the NRL, scoring 688 points at an average of 28.67 PPG, while they were 7th in defence, conceding 456 points at an average of 19. In the closing Rounds they continued to rank 1 st in attack while their defensive efforts improved to have them ranked 4th .They are 17-9 ATS and have covered in 12 of their last 16, while they have covered in their last 7 straight on the road. They have also covered in 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Storm. In TMP’s they have had more Overs results than any other side in the competition, producing an 18-8 result, with 11 of their last 15 finishing that way. Canberra has won 13 of their last 14 matches with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 4 of 9. Canberra has scored the 1st try of the match in 7 of their last 8, while they have scored the last try of the match in 8 of their last 10. The Raiders have scored 26 points or more in 12 of their last 16 and have conceded more than 18 in just 1 of their last 8. Jordan Rapana is the Raiders leading try scorer with 22, equaling the record for the most tries in a season by a Raider. It’s the team with the best defence hosting the team with the best attack, the Raiders right edge has been lethal in attack and only 1 side has scored more tries than Canberra down that edge, while no side has conceded fewer tries down their left edge in defence than the Melbourne Storm. The home side has won 74% of matches this season with Matt Cecchin in charge, including 7 of the last 8.

Preview

Which every way one lines up the form liens and key information I can’t have the Storm anything shorter that -10. They have numerous key form and factors in their favour here, 4 weeks of stable prep with no travel at home, no key injuries, full strength, through tough quality last start form game, reek experience and ready to play. Also, no club, and I mean no club does milestone games like the Storm, it is a cultural thing that Bellamy has build into the place across the last 10 years and guess what, this week is a massive milestone game in Cronks 300th.

The Raiders for mine have limped through the last few weeks and have gone off the boil. I did say weeks ago they they looked like (on the then form) that they could get to deep into September, but their efforts through tehir last two games have been very poor by form line comparison. As noted they should have touched up the Sharks and blew it, I thought they were patchy last weekend against an opponent who lost their way in the pressure of what finals are. The Raiders had near 60% of the ball, the Panthers made 11 errors with the ball and missed 50 tackles, they should have been flogged yet with 8 minutes to go were coming to get them before Fisher-Harris made two stupid errors. The quality of execution, intensity and form out of these last two games just doesn’t measure up.

Now with little expectation and the underdog the Raiders might well improve, they’ve nothing to lose. But since their best offerings 6 weeks ago they have had some soft games (Eels, Eagles, Tigers, Sharks, Panthers) where as the Storm come through their last 3 games at the top of the table (Cowboys, Sharks, Broncos) and have played like a title favourite.

Everything looks to line up here for the Storm, look well placed plus a major milestone game, I expect the handicap gets well toward at least 8 or more by the weekend.

Bet 3 units Storm -6.5 $1.90 William Hill / CrownBet BB


 

 


Twitter

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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Wk 3

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.

 

nrl tips and sports betting reading the play

 

 

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Finals Wk 2

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Finals Wk 2

 

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


NRL Finals Wk 2 2016 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-8.0 Cowboys vs Broncos

-1.5 Raiders vs Panthers

 


NRL Finals Wk 2 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 3 units Cowboys -4.5 $1.90 Ubet BB

Bet 2 units Cowboys-Broncos Over 36.5 $1.90 William Hill

Bet 2 units Panthers +1.5 $1.92 William Hill / Sportsbet > now +4.0

Bet 4 units Raiders-Panthers Over 38.5 $1.90 William Hill / 39.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB

 

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Cowboys, Panthers


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Cowboys vs Broncos

-8.0 Cowboys

 

Stats

A replay of the 2015 Grand Final kicks off Week 2 of the 2016 Finals Series with the Cowboys hosting the Broncos from 1300SMILES Stadium in what will be the 7th meeting between the 2 sides in 2 seasons. There has been nothing between the 2 in recent times, with the last 3 clashes decided by a single point, while 7 of the previous 11 clashes have been decided by 4 points or less. The home side has won 11 of the last 12 clashes (not including last years’ GF), while the team to score the 1st try of the match has gone on to win 13 of the last 15 encounters. The Cowboys have won 6 of the last 7 meetings in Townsville, including the last 4 straight, while they have also won all 3 previous Finals matches against the Broncos at 1300SMILES Stadium. North Queensland does have to contend with a shorter preparation after losing a day in travel when returning home from Melbourne after last weeks’ loss. After 26 Rounds the Cowboys have a 15-9 win loss record, they had the 2 nd best attack, scoring 584 points at an average of 24.3, while they were ranked 3rd in defence, conceding 355 points at an average of 14.8. Their 229 point differential also rated 3rd, while since Round 20 they rank 3 rd in attack and 2nd in defence. They have won 11 of 12 at home this season (and 20 of last 23) and have scored the 1 st points of the match in all 12 of those, with 11 tries and 1 penalty goal. The Cowboys are 13-12 ATS and have covered in 8 of their last 11 at home, while they have covered in 13 of their last 19 at home when laying a start. The home side has also covered in 9 of the last 11 NRL Finals matches played. In TMP’s they are 15-10 in favour of the Under, including 6 of their last 8, while 5 of the last 8 clashes with the Broncos have gone Over. The Cowboys have been great front runners, winning 14 of 14 with a half time lead, while they have lost 10 of 11 when they haven’t been in front after 40 minutes. The half time leader has also won 15 of the last 18 match ups between the Cowboys and Broncos. Only once this season have North Queensland been outscored in the 2nd half at home, while they have also won the 2nd half in the last 6 clashes with Brisbane. Antonio Winterstein continues to be the Cowboys leading try scorer with 13 and he has scored 7 tries from his last 6 games at home. The Broncos have won 6 in a row but they come into this match at their equal longest price of the season, despite winning 5 of their last 8 as a road outsider, while they are 6 and 6 away from home this season. They finished the regular season in 5 th spot, with a defence and differential that also rated 5th, while they were ranked 6 th in attack. Since Round 20 they have held firm in defence while they moved to 5th in attack. They have lost 5 of their last 6 Finals matches played away from Suncorp Stadium. Brisbane is 12-13 ATS, with a 5-7 cover record on the road, while they covered in 17 of their last 22 as an underdog with a start of 6 points or less, including 9 of their last 10. They are 14-11 Over in TMP’s and have had Overs results in 6 of their last 8, while 5 of their last 6 Finals away from Suncorp have also finished Over. Brisbane is 14-2 with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in their last 2 matches. The Broncos have also led at the break in 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Cowboys. The Broncos have scored the 1st points of the match in 17 of their 25 matches (12 tries and 5 penalty goals) and no side has opened the scoring with a penalty goal more often than Brisbane. Brisbane has also scored the 1st try of the match in 5 of the last 6 meetings with the Cowboys. Corey Oates is the Broncos leading try scorer with 17 but he has failed to score in his last 3 away games. The home team has won 6 of the last 7 matches under Matt Cecchin, while they have covered a line in 5 of the last 6. Home teams laying a small start have also won and covered in 8 of 11 under Cecchin in 2016.

Preview

I expect to have this handicapped something like 6.5 to 8.0 and the Cowboys well placed. They come off a strong form game, close tight affair in unsuitable wet conditions to go down narrowly, now to be advantaged back at home on dry conditions with a score to settle (winning) in a knock out semi.

I thought the Broncos were very poor last Friday night, and lucky to have got away with a win let alone a margin. They were clearly advantaged by 3 poor decisions, each game turners leading to 6 points (18 in total). What concerned me more was how soft their defence was under any attack, some of the Titans tries were terribly soft. Once again they have some problems on their edges with key outs or injury concerns and there have been rumblings for a few weeks now of some disquiet in the ranks (between a few key players). There is also a major background issue re Bennett to be announced over the weekend which may also have caused some unsettling. It short, while likely to improve against a key rival on what we have had put in front of us over the last few weeks I just don’t rate the quality of that form.

The Cowboys also now have some key injury outs with Lowe, Linnett and Winterstein out. Their strength through recent seasons has been quality depth, I’m comfortable with the likely team makeup and keep an eye out on Kalyn Ponga – the kid is a superstar in the making who I have been watching for the last 5 yrs (originally in the Broncos development system).

For mine the Cowboys have a decided edge at #9, #7 and #6, their smarts to read, construct and execute play and the kicking game of Thurston and Morgan. They come through a strong form line and the top half of the draw, have belief as the defending premiers, at home, anything on form then they should have an approx. 10 point advantage here.

The more I do the numbers on this game the warmer I am on there being points in this game and it being over. Before they compounded with key in game injuries the Roosters rattled up 14 points with ease against the Broncos two weeks ago, and then as mentioned above the Broncos soft D last week was very obvious and leaked 28 points with little effort. Both sides also then have key injury outs on their edges which can also lead to further indecision and openings. With Cowboys advantage at home, dry track and my questions as to where the Broncos D attitude really is I think 38 looks low and am expecting a late game points blow out.

Bet 3 units Cowboys -4.5 $1.90 Ubet BB

Bet 2 units Cowboys-Broncos Over 36.5 $1.90 William Hill


Raiders vs Panthers

-1.5 Raiders

 

Stats

The Panthers have been running riot over their opponents in recent weeks and will look to continue that trend when they travel to Canberra to take on the Raiders in the 2nd sudden death semifinal. The Raiders had also been on a winning roll but suffered their 1st defeat in 3 months against the Sharks last start and in the process lost arguable their most influential player in Josh Hodgson, whose season appears to be over. There has been little between these sides since Canberra entered the competition in 1982 with both sides winning 34 of the 69 clashes to go with a single draw, while the Raiders hold an 18-8 all-time advantage at GIO Stadium. They met in consecutive Grand Finals in 1991 and 1992, winning 1 each. Wins have also been shared equally from the last 12 meetings, while the Raiders have won 3 of the last 4. Recent meetings between these sides have been closely fought contests with 8 of the last 10 clashes decided by a margin of 1-12 points, while the home side has scored the 1st try of the match in the previous 9 encounters. High scoring contests have been the norm in recent times, with 4 of the last 5 going Over at an average of 49, while 4 of the last 6 meetings in Canberra have totaled 46 or more. The Raiders have opened as the favourite and have won 9 of their last 11 at home from that said position, while the home favourite has won 8 of the last 9 Finals Series matches, the only side to lose from that position was the Raiders last week. Canberra has a key in with Blake Austin returning from a broken hand, but the likely loss of Hodgson cannot be overstated. Their loss last week was their 1st at home since Round 8, having won 8 in row prior, while their 14 point total was their lowest score since Round 10 and their 3rd lowest of the season, with the Raiders having scored 26 points or more in 12 of their 14 prior to the Qualifying Final. Canberra stormed home to finish 2nd after 26 Rounds and only once all season have they been positioned out of the Top 8. They had the best attacking record in the NRL, scoring 688 points at an average of 28.67 PPG, while they were 7th in defence, conceding 456 points at an average of 19. In the closing Rounds they continued to rank 1 st in attack while their defensive efforts improved to have them ranked 4th .They are 16-9 ATS and have covered in 11 of their last 15, while they have covered in 5 of their last 8 when laying a small start at home. They have also covered in the last 4 clashes with the Panthers. In TMP’s they have had more Overs results than any other side in the competition, producing an 18-7 result, with 11 of their last 14 finishing that way. Canberra has won 12 of their last 13 matches with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 4 of 9. Canberra has scored the 1st try of the match in 6 of their last 7, while they have scored the last try of the match in 8 of their last 9. Jordan Rapana is the Raiders leading try scorer with 21 and he has scored 5 tries in his last 4 games against the Panthers. Penrith have enormous momentum off the back of 8 wins from their last 9 matches, including 6 on the trot, scoring 28 or more in 5 of those wins. They finished the regular season in 6th spot and were ranked 5th in attack averaging 23.45 points a game, while they were 8th in defence, conceding an average of 19.29, but since Round 20 the Panthers rank 2 nd in attack (31.14 PPG) and 1st in defence (12.28 PPG). The Panthers are 15-10 ATS and have covered in their last 6 straight, while they have a 7-8 cover record since 2014 with a small start on the road. In TMP’s the Panthers are 13-12 in favour of the Unders, while they are 6-2 Under as a road dog in 2016. Penrith have won their last 8 matches with a half time lead, while they are 5 & 7 when trailing at the break. They have scored the 1st points of the match in 6 of their last 8 and only once from those 8 matches have they conceded more than 1 1st half try. Josh Mansour is the Panthers leading try scorer with 16 and he has scored 3 tries in his last 5 appearances against the Raiders. The home favourite has failed to cover a line in 8 of the previous 9 matches with Ben Cummins in charge, while night games are 12-5 Under with Cummins at the helm.

Preview

The Raiders could well win here but off such a poor offering last Saturday I have to be against them. Let me put into perspective how ordinary a loss that was, the Raiders were at home in front of a massive home advantage against a side in struggling form without Gallen and Tagatese and started with a handicapped advantage of -8.5 (10 points). Then in the early minutes they lose Wade Graham (and a bench replacement), so lets now call this -12 at best. They then lead comfortably 12-0 and go on to murder two arguably three tries onto half time and lead 12-6 (which should have been 24-6). Then straight after half time they murder another try. Yes they lost Hodgson (major), but by end of game the Sharks had had to do an addition 10 sets (60) tackles in defence yet could still lift and crawl their way home to win. This was a very poor Raiders loss, and also highlighted their lack of experienced game management in a tough semi final (unlike the Sharks who were very capably led under pressure by Ennis, Lewis and Maloney – experienced rep players).

The Raiders now have to pick themselves up, they get Austin back but almost certainly will be without Hodgson (massive out – 17 try assists this season to date) into an opponent who have a game style they just don’t want right now. The Raiders are endowed with big boppers and love the bash and muscle game, but that comes with the cost of agility and mobility in defence. Into the second 40 they looked slow, they looked off the pace and struggled to go with the Sharks as they lifted. They now face an opponent who if they can slowly open the game up with their ball play have an exciting mix of Cleary, Moylan and Cartwright capable of opening holes, play, ball shift and then bringing into play the likes of Peachy, Mansour and Wallace let alone any other support play. As we get past the 30 minute mark, and more critically into the second 40 if they are able to continue with their up tempo play and skills they will by now be running these big Raiders forwards around in circles and be opening them right up (as they did to the Bulldogs yesterday). But they are also vulnerable if caught in a physical middle third game of being worked over and dominated and not getting to their strengths.

Very much a game of tactics, game style, tempo and execution here. The Panthers season turning point without doubt was Nathan Cleary’s elevation into the top grade and he then just grabbing it with both hands. The kid in the next Thurston, he’s a star, he has added balance, smarts and direction to them, lessened the load and responsibilities off Cartwright and Moylan and clearly taken their team game to a new level. Rolled gold good things they are not, they are young, in experienced and have their own weakness if taken on through the middle but they do look to get the right opponent without their most influential player on the right week.

As for the total points, I can’t believe it has been set at the mark that it has at 38. These two teams like to play footy, move the ball and open the game and each other up. If the Raiders get Austin back then that should only open their attack up further and their is no other side with an overs record like their’s, 18-6 season to date and 11 of their last 14, while their last 4 games have provided 40 points or more. The Panthers have now gone over at 5 of their last 6 while they have also seen 4 of their last 5 most recent games all at 40 points or more. Add to this the fact that so many of their most recent H2H clashes have all also gone over 46 or more points. Although some cloud the forecast is clear and without rain from mid week onward, again in favour of points and open play. My methods rate this an 81% chance of over 38 points, I want to be with this.

Panthers now out to +4.0 staggering, huge leg up in a semi, great bet for mine, I think they win straight up

Bet 2 units Panthers +1.5 $1.92 William Hill / Sportsbet

Bet 4 units Raiders-Panthers Over 38.5 $1.90 William Hill / 39.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB


 

 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Wk 2

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.

 

nrl tips and sports betting reading the play

 

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Finals Wk 1

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Finals Wk 1

 

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


NRL Finals Wk 1 2016 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-11.5 Broncos vs Titans

-6.0 Raiders vs Sharks

-3.5 Storm vs Cowboys

-5.5 Panthers vs Bulldogs

 


NRL Finals Wk 1 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Broncos -8.5 $1.90 Ubet

Bet 3 units Raiders -2.5 $1.90 CrownBet / -3.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 1 unit Raiders 13+ $3.35 Topsport

Bet 1 unit Cowboys H2H $2.10 Unibet

Bet 2 units Panthers -5.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / William Hill

 

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Raiders, Cowboys, Panthers


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Broncos vs Titans

-11.5 Broncos

 

Stats

A local derby kicks off the 2016 Finals Series with the Broncos hosting the Titans in the 1st Elimination Final. Brisbane has a dominant record over the Gold Coast, winning 15 of the 20 clashes since the Titans entered the competition in 2007 and they have also won 9 of the previous 10 clashes at Suncorp Stadium, with the Titans only win coming in the 1st meeting at the ground. The Titans snuck into the Top 8 with 27 points (the lowest points tally to qualify since 2007) to make their 1st Final Series since 2010. Regardless of the result, it’s been a successful season for the Titans, who were favoured to win the spoon prior to Round 1. They have been there or thereabouts for most of the season regarding a Finals spot, with a season high of 3rd after Round 1, while their lowest position was 13th in Round 9. The Titans finished the regular season with an 11-12-1 record and were ranked 8th in attack and 9th in defence. They dropped just 1 game from Rounds 19 to 24 before losing their final 2 matches. They have struggled against the Top 8, with just 2 wins from 11 matches and the last of those wins was way back in Round 11. The Titans have been the equal Number 1 betting side ATS, covering in 16 of their 24 matches, including 7 of their last 8 as a road dog, 11 of their last 13 with a start and their last 4 as a double digit outsider, but they have covered in only 1 of their last 4 against the Broncos. In TMP’s they are 13-11 Under, with 5 of their last 6 finishing that way, while 7 of the last 9 clashes with Brisbane have also gone Under. Only once in the previous 13 clashes between the Titans and Broncos have the TMP’s totaled more than 40 and not once in those 13 meetings have the Titans scored more than 16 points. The Titans are a perfect 8 from 8 when converting a half time lead, but have won only 2 of 11 when trailing at the break and only twice in the last 10 clashes with the Broncos have they led at half time. They have scored 28 of their 88 tries in 2016 through their middle 3rd, which is the most of any side, with Ryan James accounting for 11 of those and he ranks 2nd behind Anthony Don as the Titans leading try scorers. Titan’s matches have the lowest average in the competition for the time of the 1st try being scored and in 9 of their last 10 matches, the 1st try has been scored by the 7th minute. The Broncos are again short priced favourites and have won 9 of 12 at home from that position in 2016. They come into this match off the back of 5 consecutive wins which saw them finish 5th with a defence and differential that also rated 5th, while they finished 6th in attack. They have won 10 of 13 at Suncorp Stadium this season and their last 7 wins over the Titans at the venue have all been by a margin of 13+. The Broncos have also won their last 5 Finals matches played at the ground. Brisbane ended the regular season with an 11-13 record ATS, with a 7-6 cover record at Suncorp Stadium, while they have a 9-5 cover record at the ground since 2014 when laying more than 10 points. The Broncos have also covered in 3 of their last 4. Brisbane are 13-11 Over in TMP’s and have had Overs results in 5 of their last 7, while 4 of their last 6 Finals at home have totaled 34 or less. Brisbane is 14-2 with a half time lead, while last week was the 1st time in 8 matches that the Broncos were able to overcome a half time deficit. The Broncos have scored the 1st points of the match in 17 of their 24 matches (12 tries and 5 penalty goals) and no side has opened the scoring with a penalty goal more often than Brisbane and they also took this option in 2 of their Finals matches in 2015. Brisbane has also scored the 1st try of the match in the last 6 meetings with the Titans. Corey Oates is the Broncos leading try scorer with 15 and 10 of those have been scored at Suncorp Stadium, while Milford and Roberts are tied for 2nd with 12 each. Brisbane has won 4 from 4 at home this season under Gerard Sutton, while the home side has covered the last 8 straight with Sutton in charge. Night matches refereed by Sutton have gone 9-4 in favour of the Under.

Preview

Glenn (groin), Andrew McCullough (ankle) and Josh McGuire all trained strongly through captains run Thursday, but Opacic is a late out with Kahu shifting to left centre and Pearson coming in on the wing.

Expect the Broncos to be more serious here this week and we see a finals type approach, as opposed to the complacent carefree offering we got last Thursday night. In to a sudden death game, significant advantage playing at home and healthy long term hold over the Titans they should be very hard to beat. Titans have been very plucky but could well have missed the finals, come off a distant away game to Townsville into another away contest.

The Broncos are 10 wins from 12 against sides in the bottom half of the ladder and have a dominant long term record over the Titans and have won 12 of the last 14 H2H when at home (Suncorp, Brisbane) including the last 9 straight, and notably the last 7 by margins of 14 or more. The Broncos also have a very warm record when 10 or more pt handicap favs at home covering 10 of teh last 14 such occasions. Conversely the Titans record this season against top 8 sides has been poor with just 2 wins from 11 contests.

We saw last week that the gap was around 16 points between the Cowboys sitting 4th into the Titans, I expect this might be something similar. The key to the Broncos here is getting into their groove early, completing with high numbers, low errors, play field position and take any advantage that comes their way. They need to play with some tempo, some ruck speed, off loads and look to move the Titans forwards around, something very similar to what they did to the Storm two weeks ago. The Titans can open up through the middle, and can get lazy lacking sides ways agility which should play to McCullough, Hunt and Milford playing direct with Boyd in support. The Titans will want to mix up a game of arm wrestle, but when in the attacking zone look to Taylor, Roberts and Hayne adding a moment of skill and line break. When on teh Broncos have had a decided defensive edge and can be hard to crack, into a finals game where we are playing for keeps I’m expecting that they aim up with something similar.

Happy to bet the Broncos up to -10 which can be found in a few places. The game circumstances all look right for them here, at home, showed some real quality 10 days ago and what their potential is, good record against the Titans and those of similar quality in against a team who have limped into the finals and look a level of two below whats required here.

Bet 2 units Broncos -8.5 $1.90 Ubet


Raiders vs Sharks

-6.0 Raiders

 

Stats

The Green Machine will look to keep rolling along when the take on the misfiring Sharks at what will be a hostile environment at GIO Stadium. The Raiders have plenty of momentum and are 1 of, if not, the form team heading into the Finals Series and a win over Cronulla will see them make their 1st Preliminary Final since 1997. The Sharks hold a 35-31 all-time advantage over the Raiders and they also have an exceptional record at GIO Stadium, winning 9 of the last 12 clashes. In fact, the home ground advantage has meant little between these sides, with the away team winning 8 of the previous 10 match ups, while wins have been shared equally from the last 16 meetings. The last time these 2 sides met in a Final was back in 2012 at GIO Stadium, the Raiders ran out easy winners on that day, where Josh Papalli became a human missile, with continuous attacks towards the ribs of Paul Gallen, expect this to continue. The Raiders have won 10 straight and another win this week will see them equal a club record of 11 consecutive wins, a record that has stood for more than 20 years. They are also unbeaten at home since Round 8, winning 8 in a row. Canberra stormed home to finish 2nd after 26 Rounds and only once all season have they been positioned out of the Top 8. They have the best attacking record in the NRL, scoring 688 points (a new club record) at an average of 28.67 PPG, while they were 7th in defence, conceding 456 points at an average of 19. Their 232 point differential was also the 2nd best in the league. The Raiders have been a point scoring machine in 2016 and have scored 26 points or more in 12 of their last 14 and they are the only side in the competition to have scored more than 100 tries for the season. They are 16-8 ATS, which is equal best with the Titans and have covered in 11 of their last 14, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 when laying a small start at home. In TMP’s they have had more Overs results than any other side in the competition, producing an 18-6 result, with 11 of their last 13 finishing that way, while high scoring affairs have been the norm against the Sharks, with 9 of the last 10 totaling 40 or more. Canberra is unbeaten in their last 12 matches with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 4 of 9. Canberra has scored the 1st try of the match in 5 of their last 6, while they have scored the last try of the match in their last 9 straight. Jordan Rapana is the Raiders leading try scorer with 20 and he has scored 4 tries in his last 4 games against the Sharks. After setting a new club record of 15 wins, the Sharks have now won only 1 of their last 6. Despite their poor run home, they still finished the regular season in 3rd spot, their best finish since 2008. Like the Raiders, the Sharks had a 17-6-1 record at the conclusion of 26 Rounds. They ranked 3rd in both attack and defence, while their differential rated 4th. Cronulla have not won an away game since Round 19, suffering 1 draw and 3 losses since then, while they have also failed to win their last 3 against a Top 8 opponent. The Sharks are 13-11 ATS and have failed to cover in their 5 of their last 6 and their last 4 straight away from home, while they have a 15-15 record since 2014 when covering as a road dog. In TMP’s they are 13-11 Under but have gone Over in 3 of their last 5, while they are 14-8 Over in night games away from home since 2014. The Sharks have won 12 of 15 with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 4 of 8. A Sharks try has been the 1st scoring play in 9 of the last 12 clashes with the Raiders, while they have opened the scoring with a penalty goal in their last 2 matches against a Top 4 opponent. Valentine Holmes is Cronulla’s leading try scorer with 18 but he has scored only 2 tries from his last 5 games, his driest spell since the opening 5 Rounds. The home team has won the last 6 matches under Matt Cecchin, while they have covered a line in the last 5. Home teams laying a small start have also won and covered in 8 of 10 under Cecchin in 2016. The half time leader has won 11 of the last 12 clashes, while 5 of the last 6 clashes at GIO Stadium have been decided by a margin of 13+.

Preview

I think the Sharks are in free fall winning just 1 of their last 6 games. After weeks of speculation of possibly finishing 1st, then maybe 2nd they now finish 3rd and have an away game at a dam tough venue for a semi final, with a full house of screaming Raiders fans, but they will carry the knowledge that they have won 9 of their last 12 at the ground. The Raiders are full of confidence and belief, are rolling along week in to the next with momentum, they dusted up the Sharks at Cronulla some weeks ago and with that same power and attack game plan can do the same here. They have now won 10 straight and importantly won their last 8 home games.

If we take a closer look at the Sharks form line through recent months it offers some enlightenment behind their poor form. Across their last 8 games they have 3 wins – against the two teams who finished 15th and 16th on the table (Roosters twice and Knights). Across their last 6 games they have 1 win and a draw, and over the last month have really looked out of sorts lacking confidence and quality execution. They can improve, their best form was very good but quite some months ago, time will tell but I just wonder if Coach Flanagan has farked up their post Origin physical plan and unlike the Storm, Cowboys and Broncos who have pumped the hard yards of fitness and tapering into their playing squad and are now coming out the other side on the up into the finals the Sharks have messed this up? They had some moments last week where they were closer, but again their execution was poor, and then defensively they let through some very soft tries.

Flanagan’s whole body language has also looked very poor for many weeks now as well. I was some what staggered to watch him in the dressing room vs Rabbits, and then post game his language, and then we have seen similar since. He has looked flustered and lost, without answers, and through recent days is mow talking up how they have had a great season finishing top 4, nearly winning the minor premiership and their winning streak of 16 games. All but sounding like a guy trying to justify that regardless of what happens now its been a great year, amazing, and all but defeatist.

They now travel two weeks in a row, and both to dam tough away venues. Canberra will be absolutely pumping with 27,000 full house mad screaming excited Raiders fans. We were with the Raiders for their upset win at Shark park some weeks ago when they ran roughshod through the middle with their big men and with that strong yardage game found room and advantage attacking the edges in particular to their favoured right. I see something similar happening again.

Through the first two thirds of the season the Raiders were prone to clocking in and out of games but as their momentum, confidence and belief has build and grown this has become far less an issue. Whacking the Sharks and then Storm can do that for you, and now they finish 2nd spot with a home semi and even with Austin missing feel bullet proof. They had some lazy moments against the Eagles, to be expected but still won comfortably and then steam rolled through a weak Tigers offering. They back themselves, and believe in themselves, its stuff thats hard to buy.

The Sharks are now somewhat up against the wall and could pull a big effort out, but they are hard to have and everything about their form line right now is terrible. I lean far more strongly to them being whacked again and possibly by a margin. I’m not sure if the Raiders can get past the final weeks of this comp, but gee they are up to their ears in it right now. They can match it in the middle, they can hurt you physically, they then have some attacking smarts and a deep bench. The Sharks need discipline and their halves and Barba to fire, and play plenty of ball play and attack.

Happy to be with the Raiders, home advantage, confidence belief and some big boppers to boot. Also a small interest at the Raiders 13+

Bet 3 units Raiders -2.5 $1.90 CrownBet / -3.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 1 unit Raiders 13+ $3.35 Topsport


Storm vs Cowboys

-3.5 Storm

 

Stats

The Minor Premiers of 2016 host the Premiers of 2015 in what shapes as an absolute block buster in a match that could well be a dress rehearsal for the Grand Final in 3 weeks’ time. Melbourne holds a 22-10 all-time advantage over the Cowboys, including 2 wins this season. The Cowboys however, will have no fears about travelling to AAMI Park after recording wins in 2 of their last 3 visits to the venue, including a 20 point victory in last year’s Preliminary Final, while they have also won both previous Finals clashes. For the 2nd year in a row, the Cowboys finished in the Top 4 at the conclusion of the regular season, while it’s the 6th straight year that they have qualified for the Finals. They spent 20 weeks in the Top 4, holding down the Number 1 spot for just 1 week, while they were never positioned out of the Top 8. After 26 Rounds they have a 15-9 win loss record, they have the 2nd best attack, scoring 584 points at an average of 24.3, while they were ranked 3rd in defence, conceding 355 points at an average of 14.8. Their 229 point differential also rated 3rd . They come into this match off the back of 3 straight wins, with 2 of those coming against their Top 8 counterparts. The Cowboys are 13-11 ATS, with a 5-7 cover record on the road, while they are 15-8 since 2014 when covering as an underdog. They have also covered in 4 of their last 5 Finals matches. In TMP’s they are 14-10 in favour of the Under, with an 8-4 Under record on the road, including 7 of their last 8, while 5 of the last 6 clashes with Melbourne have also finished Under, with none of them topping 35. Finals matches since 2014 are also in heavy favour of the Unders, producing a 12-6 result. The Cowboys have been great front runners, winning 14 of 14 with a half time lead, while they have lost 8 of 9 when trailing at the break. They are the Number 1 side in the comp at scoring the 1st try of the match, bagging the 1st 4 pointer on 17 occasions. A winger, fullback or centre has been the Cowboys 1 st try scorer in 7 of the last 8 clashes with the Storm. Antonio Winterstein is the Cowboys leading try scorer with 12, Feldt and O’Neill are equal 2nd with 11, while Gavin Cooper ranks next with 10 and he has scored 3 tries in his last 3 matches against the Storm. Melbourne has been the bench mark in 2016, spending 18 weeks in the Top 2 and like the Cowboys, they have never been positioned out of the Top 8. They too are also contesting their 6th consecutive Finals Series and only once during that period have they finished the regular season out of the Top 4. They come into this match with only 2 wins from their last 4 but had won 6 straight prior. Melbourne won 19 of their 24 matches to secure their 1 st Minor Premiership since 2011. Their defensive efforts had them ranking at the top of the charts, conceding 302 points at an average of 12.5, while their 261 point differential was also the best in the NRL. Their 563 points in attack ranked 4th. The Storm is also 13-11 ATS, with a 6-6 cover record at home, while they have covered in 10 of their last 14 when conceding a start of less than 6 points. In TMP’s they are the Number 1 Unders side in the NRL, with a 17-7 result and have finished that way in 6 of their last 8. They have played 5 matches against their Top 4 counterparts and all 5 of those also finished Under, while 14 of their last 16 have finished Under when they have been favoured by less than 6 points. Melbourne has won 16 of 17 in 2016 with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 3 of 7. The Storm has scored the 1st try of the match on 14 occasions and they have gone on to win 13 of those. Suliasa Vunivalu is the NRL’s Number 1 try scorer with 22 tries in 18 matches since making his debut in Round 7, but he has only scored 1 try from his last 6 matches at AAMI Park. Only once in the previous 8 meetings have the Storm outscored the Cowboys in the 2nd half, while the Cowboys have scored the last try of the match in 5 of the last 6 encounters. The half time leader has won 21 of the last 22 clashes, while in 4 of the last 5 clashes the winning margin has been by single figures. In 8 of the last 12 Week 1 Finals the winning margin has been by 1-12 points. The home favourite has failed to cover a line in the previous 8 matches with Ben Cummins in charge, while night games are 11-5 Under with Cummins at the helm.

Preview

Great clash. Storm heavily advantaged by 3rd week at home and now distinct home advantage, but they meet a well credentialed challenger who dusted them up in an important finals game 12 months ago. I think the winner of this game is then the likely title winner, so much to play for with the advantage of the week off and then the likely softer side of the draw. I’m with the Cowboys, likely wet conditions only likely to make this more of an a physical arm wrestle but they look like they are coming right into the final weeks, they have the power game to match and beat the Storm through the middle, importantly they have the smarts and ball play to hurt them where they have some defensive weakness on their edges.

Looks close and tight, but I want to have a small interest with the visitors.

Bet 1 unit Cowboys H2H $2.10 Unibet


Panthers vs Bulldogs

-5.5 Panthers

 

Stats

The final game of Week 1 sees the inform Panthers hosting the out of from Bulldogs in the 2nd Elimination Final. Like the Broncos and Raiders, the Panthers come into this match with 5 straight wins under their belt, while the Dogs appear to be limping in, suffering losses in their last 3 matches. Recent meetings between the Panthers and Bulldogs have been tight affairs with 7 of the last 8 clashes decided by a single figure margin, while 7 of the last 9 encounters have totaled 38 or less. The Bulldogs hold a 51-35 all-time advantage over the Panthers, coupled with 3 draws. The Dogs have won the 2 most recent meetings, including a win on the siren in the only meeting this year. Canterbury dropped from 4th to 7th in the closing Rounds but they were never positioned out of the Top 8 all season, winning 14 of their 24 matches. They have had a favourable draw, with just 5 matches played outside of NSW and 10 matches against their Top 8 counterparts, where they have struggled recently, losing 5 of 6. After 26 Rounds, the Bulldogs ranked 9th in attack and 6th in defence, but since Round 20 they are ranked 15 th in attack and 12th in defence. The Dogs have been the worst cover team in the NRL, with a 7-17 record ATS and they have failed to cover in their last 9 straight, while they have also failed to cover in their last 4 as a road outsider. In TMP’s they are split 12-12, while 5 of their last 7 have finished Unders. They have also had Unders results in 8 of their 12 away games, while they are 9-3 Under since 2014 as a road outsider with a start of less than a converted try. The Dogs have won 11 of 15 matches with a half time lead, but have lost their last 6 straight when trailing at the break. Curtis Rona is the Bulldogs leading try scorer with 11, but he has scored just 1 try from his last 7 matches, while Brett Morris ranks 2nd, scoring 10 tries from his 10 appearances. The Panthers have come home with a wet sail, winning 7 of their last 8 matches, which saw them move from 9th to 6th during that period. They also finished the regular season with 14 wins but their 100 point differential was superior to that of the Bulldogs. Penrith ranked 5th in attack averaging 23.45 points a game, while they were 8th in defence, conceding an average of 19.29, but since Round 20 the Panthers are ranked 2nd in attack (31.14 PPG) and 1st in defence (12.28 PPG). The Panthers are 14-10 ATS and have covered in 6 of their last 7, including their last 4 when laying a start. In TMP’s the Panthers are also split 12-12, while they have had Overs results in their last 5 when laying a start of 6 points or less. Penrith have won their last 8 matches with a half time lead, while they are 4 & 7 when trailing at the break. The Panthers have scored the 1st points of the match in 6 of their last 7 and only once from those 7 matches have they conceded more than 1 1st half try. The home side has scored the opening try of the match in 9 of the last 10 clashes. Josh Mansour is the Panthers leading try scorer with 15 and in his last 6 matches he has bagged 3 doubles. Matches with Jared Maxwell in charge are 15-10 in favour of the Unders

Preview

Bulldogs have been a mess for weeks, Kasanio will be a key in but gee they are hard to have. Panthers just keep getting the job done, and have positive ball play, skill and speed to hurt the Bulldogs.

I’m sure the Bulldogs will be focused and hell bent on defence here, and look to turn this into a slow temp’d physical arm wrestle with their younger opponents. But if the the Panthers can play with some smarts, play off load and second phase play it will negate this and open things up and potentially lad to another issue for the Bulldogs, that of chasing from behind. Given there style is to try and hold an opponent into a tight arm wrestle and wear you down to a result if they are jumped on the scoreboard they struggle.

I hope we get some open footy here, some attack and points, but it is a semi final. The Panthers are young and inexperienced and need to hold their head, but they have been a very different side since Nathan Cleary has settled in at #7, he is a class act and given them the direction and balance they required. I think he is again the different here and can lead an attack focused advantage.

Like the Panthers. It’s not clear cut but I think they are suited here with their game style, off load and support play and the smarts of the #7 and #6.

Bet 2 units Panthers -5.5 Sportsbet / William Hill


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Wk 1

 

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting | Round 26

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting | Round 26

 

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 26 2016 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-14.5 Broncos vs Roosters

-2.5 Bulldogs vs Rabbits

-12.5 Dragons vs Knights

-14.5 Cowboys vs Titans

-5.5 Storm vs Sharks

+4.5 Tigers vs Raiders

-4.5 Warriors vs Eels

-14.5 Panthers vs Eagles

 


NRL Round 26 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 3 units Broncos -10.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet

Bet 2 units Broncos -12.5 $1.92 CrownBet / William Hill or 13+ elsewhere

Bet 2 units Bulldogs-Rabbits under 36 $1.85 Luxbet / 35.5 CrownBet / Bet365

Bet 3 units Cowboys -9.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet

Bet 3 units Panthers -8.5 $1.90 CrownBet / William Hill BB

 

Notes: With 9 teams still playing for final top 8 spots including the importance of either top 4 (double chance) or a home semi final we have key games where we know teams are playing to win. I see three games where those in form and playing at home should have a decided form advantage. Broncos certainly put their hand up last week with an impressive offering, they have the advantage of a 7 day turn around into an opponent who rolled over poorly in the 2nd this week and now face a short 5 day turn around into an interstate away game. The Cowboys also have an additional 2 day prep advantage this week and as we know hold a commanding advantage at home, the Titans have been very good but look busted, tired, have to travel and up against it. The Panthers are rolling along nicely, they too return home and should have too much skill and ball movement for an Eagles side busted with injury, likely to have further player outs and season’s end can’t come quick enough.

 

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Bulldogs, Dragons, Cowboys, Storm, Raiders, Eels, Panthers


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Broncos vs Roosters

-14.5 Broncos

 

Stats

The Broncos and Roosters kick off the final Round of 2016 in what will be Corey Parker’s final game of the regular season at Suncorp Stadium. The Roosters ran out big winners when these sides met just 5 weeks ago but the Broncos haven’t been beaten since, going a 4 game winning run. Brisbane holds a 25-17 all-time advantage over the Roosters who have reduced the deficit in recent meetings, having won 4 of the last 6 clashes. They have also won 4 of the previous 6 meetings at Suncorp Stadium, but the 2 losses have come from their 2 most recent visits to the venue, including a 19 point loss in last year’s Preliminary Final. The Roosters are coming off their biggest loss in 3 months and have nothing to play for, while the Broncos are coming off their best win of the season to keep alive their slim hopes of a Top 4 finish. Brisbane is 5 th with a 14-9 win loss record, while they are ranked 5th in attack and 4th in defence. They have won 9 of 11 against sides in the bottom half of the ladder, while their last 2 wins have been against Top 6 counterparts. The Broncos have won 9 of 12 at Suncorp Stadium this season to make it 20 wins from 26 matches at the ground since the return of Wayne Bennett. They are 11-12 ATS and have now covered in their last 3 straight, while they have a 7-5 cover record at Suncorp in 2016. In TMP’s they are 12-11 in favour of the Over, with 4 of their last 5 at home all finishing that way, while 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Roosters have also finished Over. Brisbane is 14-2 with a half time lead, while they have lost 8 from 8 when trailing at the break. Tom Opacic has been the 1st try scorer of the match in his last 2 matches. After securing 3 consecutive Minor Premierships, the Roosters fall from grace has been dramatic, they are in 15th spot and are set for their lowest finish since 2009. They have won only 6 of their 23 matches and recorded just the 1 win from 11 away games, losing their last 8 straight on the road. The Roosters are 13th in attack and in defence, with a differential that rates 14th. They have lost 12 of 14 against the Top 8, ironically both of those wins were against last year’s grand Finalists and both of those wins were with the home ground advantage. The Roosters are 9-14 ATS and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 8 games on the road, while they have also failed to cover in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Broncos. In TMP’s they are 16-7 in favour of the Over, with 7 of their last 9 finishing that way, while they are 9-4 Over as a road outsider since 2014. The Roosters have lost 12 from 12 this season when trailing at half time and have converted 6 of 9 when in front at the break. The 1st try of the match has been scored by the 8th minute in 8 of the roosters last 9 games.

Preview

Broncos certainly bounced up with a quality win and effort last week in Melbourne. They had been on the improve but I hadn’t expected that size of improvement into that opponent or away venue, Bennett is just a bloody master at this game and getting his teams right when it matters. I was asked on radio during the week where and why I thought such improvement had come from, I think its a few factors coming together at the right time. They have got key players back through recent weeks, notably on their left edge where they had been in all sorts of trouble; Opacic who Bennett has had to blood quickly and get some games into at left centre has come up; he has reshuffled to effect his forward line up and left edge with Thaiday now playing there (had always been a right edge player) and Alex Glenn coming off the bench (noted starting player and left edge player); clearly come off a tapered fitness program into September, and clearly growing in confidence off recent wins albeit against weaker form lines. But, all said and done while I could see improvement they kifted to a new level of motivation and execution last Friday, a high quality win. Makes for a great finals series!

Roosters have lost two key players into this, and already have thin depth and are playing kids in some key positions. They now lose their best player in Boyd Cordner and then also key forward and goal kicker in Sio Sia Taukeiaho, they have lost 12 of their last 14 games against Top 8 sides and now lost 10 of their last 11 Away games – some very poor key stats into a game vs 5th on table and away venue. They led 12-0 last week vs the Sharks and I though had them in some deep trouble, but rolled over ever so meekly in the second half. I think that last 40 mins plus these key outs all but puts an end to their season and while they’ll try I’m not so sure how long they stay in this game.

Broncos on a positive roll, week out from finals, can then sew up 5th spot and play into some further positive combination. Like the Broncos here.

Further advice is that Kenny-Dowall will also be a late out for Roosters today, further weakening their list and offering.

Bet 3 units Broncos -10.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet

Bet 2 units Broncos -12.5 $1.92 CrownBet / William Hill or 13+ elsewhere


Bulldogs vs Rabbits

-2.5 Bulldogs

 

Stats

The out of form Bulldogs and the inform Rabbitohs face off in the final Friday night fixture of the regular season. The Dogs are in desperate need of a win to gain some momentum heading into the Finals, while the Bunnies are looking to make it 4 consecutive wins for the 1st time in 2016 and end their season on a positive note. The Rabbitohs had won 5 of 6 including the 2014 Grand Final before the Dogs went back to back in the 2 most recent encounters. Wins have been shared equally from the last 10 meetings, while the Bulldogs hold a strong all-time advantage at ANZ Stadium, winning 15 of 23. The Dogs have now dropped to 6th and a loss could see them finish 7th if other results go against them. They are ranked 7th in attack and 5th in defence but since Round 20, those rankings have dropped to 15th and 9th respectively. Canterbury have won 7 of their last 8 matches played at ANZ Stadium, while they have also won their last 8 matches against sides in the bottom half of the ladder. The Dogs are now the worst cover team in the NRL, with a 7-16 record ATS and they have failed to cover in their last 8 straight, while they have also failed to cover in 9 of their last 10 as a home underdog. In TMP’s they are 12-11 Under, with 5 of their last 6 finishing that way, while 5 of their last 7 at ANZ Stadium have gone Over. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Rabbitohs. Consider Curtis Rona in try scorer calculations as he has scored in his last 3 matches against Souths and he has also scored 22 tries from 25 matches at ANZ Stadium. Souths are in 13th spot and will miss the Finals for the 1st time under Michael Maguire. They have an 8-15 record, with an attack and defence that both rank 12th. They have won only 1 of 10 matches against a Top 8 opponent, while they have lost 7 of their last 9 matches played at ANZ Stadium. The Rabbitohs are 10-13 ATS but have covered in their last 4 as a road dog, while they have only covered in 2 of their last 9 at Homebush. In TMP’s they are 14-9 in favour of the Overs, with a 7-3 Over record at ANZ Stadium. The Rabbitohs have conceded 25 tries through their middle third this season, which is the most of any club. TMP’s have finished Overs in 9 of the last 11 night games with Ashley Klein in charge.

Preview

The only thing to like about this game is the weather forecast, with a 50 mms downpour forecast for all day Friday across Sydney, onto a ground we already know can be damp and slippery.

I think the key form factor here is this – Bulldogs have won last 8 straight vs sides in bottom half of ladder, Souths have won just 1 of their last 8 against Top 8.

The Bulldogs have been very poor through recent weeks against good teams around them on the table in the Broncos and then Cowboys, once again their handling and halves execution has let them down, but they do seem to get the job done when against those in the bottom half of the table. And surely a week out for finals footy they have more to be playing for here. Rabbits have been good and found some winning form including beating the Sharks in wet conditions here, but then flogging the Knights is no reference as we know, they have Inglis in some doubt and or carrying injury and realistically into their last game of the season it’s not hard to mentally start to drop your focus knowing its about to all be over.

Slight lean to Bulldogs, but with the likely heavy wet weather I want to be with the unders, we saw similar conditions and bet accordingly two weeks ago at this ground to see only 18 points scored, I’m hoping for a repeat of something similar.

Bet 2 units Bulldogs-Rabbits under 36 $1.85 Luxbet / 35.5 CrownBet / Bet365


Dragons vs Knights

-12.5 Dragons

 

Stats

Super Saturday gets under way in what shapes as an absolute bludger when the 2 worst attacking teams in the competition go head to head at Jubilee Oval in a match that has no relevance what so ever. The Dragons have won 8 of the last 10 clashes with the Knights which indicates how bad Newcastle is travelling. The Knights have lost their last 3 visits to Jubilee Oval, with their last win at the ground back in 2009. They have spent a total of 18 weeks in 16th place with a season high of 14th, while their attack and defence are the worst in the NRL era. They have lost 17 straight with just 1 win and a draw for the season and they have conceded 26 points or more in 10 of their last 11. Their last 6 losses have all been by 13+ with an average losing margin of 24 points, while they have failed to score more than 6 1st half points in 8 of their last 9. Newcastle is 8-15 ATS and has covered in only 2 of 9 on the road with a double digit advantage, while they have failed to cover in their last 3 against the Dragons. They are 13-10 Over in TMP’s with 7 of their 11 away games finishing that way and 6 of those have totaled 52 or more. Only twice all season have the Knights posted a score of 20 points or more, while they have conceded fewer than 20 on just 2 occasions. The Knights have conceded the 1st try in 20 of their 23 matches. The Dragons story doesn’t read a whole lot better, with 7 losses from their last 8 matches, including 3 losses from their last 4 at home. They have however, won 8 of their last 11 at Jubilee Oval, while they have also won 13 of their last 17 as a home favourite. The Dragons are 11th with a defence that ranks 10th, while both their attack and differential are the 2nd worst in the NRL. They are 11-12 ATS and have covered in 7 of their 11 home games, while they have covered in 5 of their last 6 at Kogorah. In TMP’s they are 15-8 in favour of the Unders, but their last 3 have all topped 48. Like the Knights, the Dragons have also struggled for points and in their last 8 matches they have averaged just 4 1st half points. The Dragons are unbeaten this season with a half time lead, winning 8 from 8, while they have lost 14 of 15 when trailing at half time. In the 6 meetings from 2011 – 2013 the TMP’s finished Unders, at an average of 27, but 3 of the 4 most recent clashes have totaled 48 or more. The home sides has lost the last 7 matches with Henry Perenara in charge.

Preview

If Dragons have any real gumption or pride then back at home, last game, under enormous focus they should win. They have won 7 of their last 8 vs Knights but have only won just 1 of last 8 games and in all of those 8 last 8 games have only surpassed 12 pts just twice. But, they do come through a much harder form line and surely this is the major drop in grade and break through opportunity for them to finish a disappointing and ugly season with.

The Knights have lost their last 17 straight, an ugly record, their last 6 losses have all been by margins 13+ with an average losing margin of 24 points and they travel here which has also been a major negative. They may have some advantage with the Dragons off a short 5 day turn around (Monday) but I still have this a 12 to 14 point advantage to the home side.

Nothing to like about the game, Dragons should win.


Cowboys vs Titans

-14.5 Cowboys

 

Stats

A Queensland derby with huge implications for both sides when the Titans travel to Townsville to take on the Cowboys. The Cowboys need a win to secure a spot in the Top 4, while a win for the Titans will sure up their spot in the 8, if the Titans lose they will be sweating on the Raiders defeating the Tigers to ensure they still qualify for their 1st Final Series since 2010. Both sides have 8 wins from the 16 clashes, while wins have also been shared equally from the last 10 encounters, but the Cowboys have won 5 of the last 6 meetings at 1300SMILES Stadium. The Cowboys moved back into the Top 4 after last week’s road win over the Dogs and they are now back at home where they have won 10 of 11 in 2016. They have the 3rd best attack, while their defence and differential both rank 2nd. North Queensland is 5 & 5 against the Top 8 sides, while they have won 4 of 5 against sides ranked 5th to 8th. They are 12-11 ATS and have covered in 7 of their last 8 at home when laying more than a converted try. In TMP’s they are 14-9 in favour of the Unders and 7 of their last 8 have finished that way, while 6 of their last 7 against a Top 8 opponent have also gone Under. The Cowboys are a perfect 13 from 13 with a half time lead and have trailed at the break in only 2 of their last 13 at home. The Titans have been the Cinderella story of the NRL this season with many tipping them to be a bottom 4 outfit. They are clinging to 8th spot on 27 points with an 11-11-1 record, while they have an attack and defence that both rank 9th. They have won 5 of their last 7 on the road and 3 of their last 4 as a road dog. The Titans have struggled for wins against their Top 8 counterparts, with only 2 wins from 10 matches. They are 16-7 ATS, the best cover record in the NRL and have covered in 11 of their last 12 when getting a start, while they have covered in their last 5 straight as a road dog when getting a start of more than a converted try. In TMP’s they are 13-10 Under, including their last 5 straight, while 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Cowboys in Townsville have also finished Under. The Titans are a perfect 8 from 8 with a half time lead, but have won only 2 of 12 when trailing at the break. The home team has won 16 of the last 19 matches with Matt Cecchin at the helm.

Preview

Pressure game for both sides with much in play, but for mine far more for Titans. A Cowboys win sews up 4th spot and the double chance to then defend their title, so they have plenty to play for and motivation should be no issue. As we know they have an outstanding home track record (won 10 of their last 11), and come off some recent winning form and like the Broncos look to have their run into September tapered and tailored nicely. They will be with out Scott but get Hannant back, and have some quality depth.

The Titans have an ask, a distant away game to a tough venue with a win then ensuring 8th spot, but even with a loss should the Tigers be rolled they still make it. Their record against the point end of the table is not good with just 2 wins from their last 10 matches when against Top 8 sides. In short this probably says it all, they have had a super season, achieved well above everyone’s expectation, have been the form underdog for much of the season, but have struggled to beat the good ones and that’s what they now face here.

The Cowboys have the 3rd best attack and 2nd best defence and I expect that should be the path again through this game. The Titans can leak 22 pts a game on the road, while the Cowboys consistently only concede 11 points a game at home. The Cowboys are building nicely, Thurston in particular growing his form and leadership, I think they can win, have a bit to now play for and do so by 10 points or more.

Bet 3 units Cowboys -9.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet


Storm vs Sharks

-5.5 Storm

 

Stats

The fight for the Minor Premiership will be decided at AAMI Park when the Storm play host to the Sharks in a top of the table block buster. Melbourne has a dominate record over Cronulla, having won 10 of the previous 12 encounters and the Sharks are yet to defeat the Storm at AAMI Park, losing 6 straight, while they haven’t won in Melbourne since 2008. The Storm is coming off just their 2nd home loss of the season and only twice in 85 matches at AAMI Park have they lost back to back games. Melbourne is also undefeated in their final home game of the regular season since the year 2000. They come into this match with 2 losses from their last 3 matches but remain on top of the ladder with the 4th best attack and the best defensive record in the NRL, still only conceding an average of 12.9 PPG, while their 241 point differential is also the best in the competition. Melbourne has a 6-4 record against their Top 8 rivals, while they have won 13 of their last 16 as a home favourite. They are 12-11 ATS, but have failed to cover in 3 of their last 4 at home, while they have also failed to cover in 5 of their last 6 at home when laying a start of more than a converted try. In TMP’s they remain as the Number 1 Unders side in the comp, with a 16-7 result, including 5 of their last 7, while they are 7-2 under against their Top 8 counterparts. A Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in 11 of the last 12 meetings with the Sharks who have conceded 1st points in 3 of their last 4. The Storm has won 15 of 16 this season with a half time lead, while they have a 92% conversion rate at AAMI Park when they have led at the break. The Sharks returned to the winners list last week after going winless for a month but they remain in 2nd place with a chance of securing just their 3rd Minor Premiership in their 50 year history and their 1st since 1999. They have a 6-4-1 record away from home this season and have failed to win their last 3 on the road. Cronulla average just 9 points a game against Melbourne from the last 12 clashes and they haven’t scored more than 6 1 st half points in any of those matches. They have spent 16 weeks in the top 2 spots with the 2nd best attack and a defence and differential that both rank 3rd. The Sharks are 13-10 ATS, but have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5, while they have also failed to cover in their last 3 on the road. In TMP’s they are 12-11 Under but have gone Over in 3 of their last 4, while they are 14-7 Over in night games away from home since 2014. The Sharks have won 12 of 15 with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 4 of 7. The home side has covered the line in the last 7 night matches with Gerard Sutton in charge.

Preview

Clearly a cracking game. The Storm hold some advantage with the game being at Home where they very rarely lose 2 in a row, and they hold a nice long term advantage over the Sharks winning 10 of the last 12. They are also getting two key forwards back. The Sharks broke back for a win last week but the second half effort of the Roosters was very poor, so that quality doesn’t read that well.

The key to the game is how the Sharks look to play this. The Storm don’t like being belted physically through the middle (as we saw a few weeks ago vs Raiders) and the Sharks are another who can play tough and physical and work them over. They also wrestle well, and have plenty of niggle in them, which can well frustrate the Storm. But, with all of this the Sharks have plenty of ill discipline and can give away numerous penalties and cost themselves advantage, they’ll need to get the balance right. The Storm also have some defensive issues on both edges, something the Sharks have the strengths and brains to target and exploit.

Looks a tough hard close physical arm wrestle. I have a slight lean to the Storm at home and their experience with these semi final styled games, but looks a great contest.


Tigers vs Raiders

+4.5 Tigers

 

Stats

The only match of the Round featuring 2 last start winners sees the Tigers hosting the Raiders at Leichardt Oval. Depending on the results of earlier matches, the outcome of this game could have major implications for both sides, with the Tigers looking to take the final spot in the Top 8 and the Raiders aiming for a Top 2 finish. The Raiders put the cleaners through the Tigers when they last met in Round 6, with Canberra scoring their biggest ever win over the Tigers in a 54 point thrashing. Canberra has won 3 of the last 4 meetings and a win in this match will be the 1st time in 10 years that they have swept the Tigers in a season. The have won 9 in a row (their longest winning run since 1995), including winning their last 4 on the road. They are the best attacking side in the NRL, averaging 28 points a game, while they are ranked 6th in defence, giving them a 190 point differential that rates 4th. The Raiders have won 9 of 12 against those in the bottom half of the ladder and they haven’t been beaten by a bottom 8 opponent since Round 10. They are 15-8 ATS and have covered in their last 6 away games, while they have also covered in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Tigers. In TMP’s they have had more Overs results than any other side in the competition, producing a 17-6 result, with 10 of their last 12 finishing that way. The Raiders are also a big Overs side in day games, going 13-2 Over in 2016, with a 32-10 record in day games since 2014. Canberra is unbeaten in their last 11 matches with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 4 of 9. Jordan Rapana scored 4 tries in the last meeting with the Tigers. The Tigers defied the odds last week to keep their finals hopes alive but will need to improve significantly on that performance if they are any chance of defeating the Raiders. The Tigers have been a 50/50 proposition at Leichardt Oval since 2013, winning only 8 of their 16 matches at the ground, while they have lost 9 of 12 this season against a Top 8 opponent. They have 14th ranked defence, while their attack ranks 10th, giving them a differential of -66 that also ranks 10th. The Tigers have won 4 of their last 5 at home and have a 5-4 record at home in 2016 as an underdog. They are 13-10 ATS and have covered in 8 of their last 10, while they have covered in their last 5 straight at Leichardt Oval when getting a start. The Tigers also have a 13-10 record in TMP’s which is in favour of the Overs and 5 of their last 7 at Leichardt have also finished Over, while they are 6- 2 Under in day games at home this season. Last week was the 1st time this season that the Tigers were able to overcome a half time deficit, having lost 8 from 8 previously, while they have won 10 of 13 when leading at the break.

Preview

Key to this game will be if Sharks have lost and 2nd spot is open for the Raiders, and if the Titans are beat then the Tigers have 8th spot to play for. The Tigers were plucky last week and finished the game strongly late but against an opponent who laid down terribly. Leichhardt is a nice advantage here but I dependent on how fair dinkum the Raiders are there are certainly questions on how the match up in the middle and the potency of their attack without Tedesco. I don’t think Stuart will rest many players, and while he won’t have them wound up they will still be playing with combination and confidence. Lots of ifs and buts, does look a game of points, lean to Raiders but a game best watched.


Warriors vs Eels

-4.5 Warriors

 

Stats

The 2nd and final match of the Round that has no impact on the makeup of the Top 8 sees Parramatta travel to New Zealand to take on the Warriors. The Eels hold a 19-16 all-time advantage over the Warriors who have won the last 3 match ups and the last 5 straight at Mt Smart Stadium. Both sides have had forgettable seasons which have been the norm in recent times, with neither of these 2 sides having featured in a Final Series for the last 5 years. The Warriors have lost 3 in a row, conceding 34 points or more in all of those losses, while they have lost their last 4 against sides in the bottom of the 8. They are currently 10th on the ladder, with an attack that ranks 8 th, while they are now the 2nd worst defensive team in the competition, conceding an average of 24 PPG. As has been the case for several years, the Warriors made a charge through the Origin period, winning 4 of 5 between their Bye Rounds to sit 7th after 18 Rounds, but that was as high as they got, spending a total of just 5 weeks in the Top 8 all season. The Warriors are 10-13 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 3, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 5 at Mt Smart Stadium. They have also failed to cover in 7 of their last 8 as a favourite. In TMP’s they are 13-10 Over, with their last 2 at home topping 60, while 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Eels have also finished Overs. A Warriors try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 3 clashes with the Eels, while the team to score the 1st try of the match has won 12 of the previous 13 encounters. The Eels have lost 5 of their last 7 and will be looking to end their horror season with back to back wins and if they can, it will be the 1st time since 2005 that they have won their final 2 games of the regular season. They have struggled on the road in recent times though, losing their last 5 straight away from home. Despite their 14th position on the ladder, the Eels have a 12-11 win loss record, with 7 of those wins coming from 9 games against sides in the bottom half of the ladder. Parramatta is 14-9 ATS, with a 7-4 cover record on the road, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 as a road dog getting more than a 6 point advantage. In TMP’s they are 13-10 in favour of the Under, but have had Overs results in their last 3 straight, while they have also gone Overs in 5 of their last 6 away from home.

Preview

The Warriors are once again a disgrace, pea hearts at when it matters toward season end. They have lost their last 3 leaking soft points, and have lost their last 4 games against bottom 8 sides, they fold under pressure quicker than a 3 legged card table. The Eels opened +10.5 on this game and it’s now +4.5, that’s what the punters now think of the Warriors… I like the Eels, they come off a positive win, will be looking to continue that here, they have some physical presence and then preparedness to play with the ball which should favour them against this opponent, and a likely high scoring game. Eels to win but nothing else doing.


Panthers vs Eagles

-14.5 Panthers

 

Stats

After 191 games, we have now reached the final match of the regular season when the Panthers host the Sea Eagles from Pepper Stadium. The Panthers are on a winning run, with 6 wins from their last 7 matches and their Finals spot secured, while they have also won 5 of the previous 6 clashes with the Sea Eagles. For Manly, it’s been a long season that will end here as they look to avoid 5 consecutive losses. Recent meetings have been reasonably close contests, with the 5 matches since 2013 all decided by a margin of 1-12 points, while the Panthers have won 3 of the last 4 match ups at Pepper Stadium. Penrith are in 7th spot, with the 6th best attack and the 8th rated defence, giving them a 70 point differential that ranks 7th. They have won 9 of 12 against a bottom 8 opponent, winning the last 3 of those by 20, 36 and 30 points respectively. The Panthers have scored 30 points or more in 4 of their last 6 and last week was the 1st time in 7 matches that they have been outscored in the 2nd half. Penrith are 13-10 ATS with a 9-3 cover record against the bottom 8, while they have covered in their last 6 against the Sea Eagles. In TMP’s the Panthers are 12-11 Over, with 7 of their last 9 versus the bottom 8 totaling 48 or more, while 4 of their last 6 at pepper Stadium have totaled 50 or more. The Panthers have won their last 7 matches with a half time lead, but have lost 7 of 11 when trailing at the break. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has been the last try scorer of the match in the previous 2 clashes with the Sea Eagles. The Sea Eagles are in 12th spot and have been out of finals contention for number of weeks and only once this season have they been positioned in the Top 8. Both their attack and defence rank 12th, while their negative 81 differential rates 12th. They have lost their last 10 straight against the Top 8 and they have lost 6 of their last 7 on the road. In their last 3 matches the Sea Eagles have conceded a combined total of 102 points and only once in their last 7 matches have they won the 2nd half. Manly are 10-13 ATS and have failed to cover in 3 of their last 4, but they have covered in 5 of their last 6 on the road when getting a start of 8 points or more. In TMP’s they are 12-11 Under, with 6 of their last 8 on the road finishing that way. The Sea Eagles have a 6-2 record with a half time lead, while they have won only 2 of 14 when trailing at the break. Dylan Walker has scored 3 tries in his last 2 games against the Panthers.

Preview

If the Panthers want to put in here then they could really make a mess of this. I am leaning to the expectation that they will, as it is also just in their nature to be free flowing, ball playing attack focused given their youth and talent, and they meet a weak opponent riddled with injuries and now lacking any desire on their home track. The Eagles play games every week with the naming of their team list yet in the last 24 hrs they have now made noises of 3 likely outs to add to their already long list. While they scored some points last week it was an open game more akin to touch footy lacking any intensity. Now into their last game happy for their season to be over and with further outs they do look cannon fodder here.

The Panthers are assured of a semi final spot so there is some risk of complacency, but they come through a nice winning streak building confidence and combinations (especially their halves) and at home I still expect their natural game to create too much opportunity. They have now been well bet, we should have advantage with the position we have, lets now look for the Panthers to put their foot down and put this game (and margin) beyond doubt.

Bet 3 units Panthers -8.5 $1.90 CrownBet / William Hill BB


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 26

 

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting | Round 25

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 25

 

MrG provides NRL Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 25 2016 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+2.5 Bulldogs vs Cowboys

-8.5 Storm vs Broncos

+8.5 Eagles vs Raiders

0.0 Titans vs Panthers

-5.5 Sharks vs Roosters

-9.5 Warriors vs Tigers

-14.5 Knights vs Rabbits

-7.5 Eels vs Dragons

 


NRL Round 25 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Storm -5.5 $1.91 William Hill / -6.0 Topsport

Bet 3 units Raiders -6.5 now available $1.94 Crownbet BB

Bet 2 units Rabbits -12.0 $1.93 Pinnacle

Bet 2 units Eels -4.5 $1.91 William Hill

Round 26

Bet 3 units Broncos -10.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet

Bet 3 units Cowboys -9.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet

Bet 3 units Panthers -8.5 $1.90 CrownBet / William Hill BB

 

Notes: With 9 teams still playing for final top 8 spots including the importance of either top 4 (double chance) or a home semi final we have key games where we know teams are playing to win. I see three games where those in form and playing at home should have a decided form advantage. Broncos certainly put their hand up last week with an impressive offering, they have the advantage of a 7 day turn around into an opponent who rolled over poorly in the 2nd this week and now face a short 5 day turn around into an interstate away game. The Cowboys also have an additional 2 day prep advantage this week and as we know hold a commanding advantage at home, the Titans have been very good but look busted, tired, have to travel and up against it. The Panthers are rolling along nicely, they too return home and should have too much skill and ball movement for an Eagles side busted with injury, likely to have further player outs and season’s end can’t come quick enough.

 

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Cowboys, Storm, Raiders, Titans, Sharks, Warriors, Rabbits, Eels


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Bulldogs vs Cowboys

+2.5 Bulldogs

 

Stats

It’s back to Belmore to kick off Round 25 in a Top 5 clash when the Bulldogs host the reigning Premiers to make it consecutive games for the Dogs against last year’s Grand Finalists. The Bulldogs suffered their biggest loss of the season when they met the Cowboys 5 weeks ago, which also equaled their highest ever losing margin to North Queensland. Canterbury has now lost 4 of their last 5 against their Top 8 counterparts and will start as a home underdog for the 1st time since Round 10 last year. They have won 6 of their last 7 at home but have been beaten in their last 2 matches at Belmore Oval. The Bulldogs remain in 4th spot with the 7th ranked attack and the 4th rated defence, giving them an 84 point differential that ranks 6th.Canterbury are 7-15 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 7 straight, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 6 against a Top 8 opponent and they have also covered in only 1 of their last 6 when getting a start at home. They are 12-10 Under in TMP’s, with their last 5 matches finishing that way, while 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Cowboys have failed to reach 40. The Bulldogs have won 11 of 15 this season with a half time lead, while they have lost 4 of 5 when trailing at the break. Brett Morris has scored 10 tries in his 8 games for the Dogs this season and he has been the Dogs 1st try scorer in their last 2 matches. The Cowboys returned to the winners circle last week to end a 3 game losing run and will be looking to make it back to back wins for the 1st time since Round 17. They have now won 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Bulldogs but they will need to improve on their recent away form, where they have lost 6 of their last 7 and they haven’t recorded a win in Sydney since Round 9. North Queensland is in 5th spot and will leap frog the Bulldogs to go back into the Top 4 with a win, they rank 3rd in attack, while their defence and differential both rank 2nd . The Cowboys are split evenly ATS, producing an 11-11 result and have covered in only 1 of their last 7 on the road. In TMP’s they are 14-8 Under, with their last 7 straight finishing that way, while their last 6 against the Top 8 have also finished Unders. The Cowboys have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 5 of the last 6 meetings with the Dogs, who have conceded the 1st try of the 2nd half in their last 6 straight. Antonio Winterstein scored a hat trick in the last meeting with the Bulldogs and was both the 1st and last try scorer of the match. The team to score the 1st try of the match has won 8 of the last 10 clashes, while the half time leader has gone on to win 6 of the last 7 meetings. In 8 of the previous 10 match ups, the winning margin has been by 1-12 points

Preview

Played at Belmore

The heavy wet weather in to Sydney in the days prior will favour the Bulldogs in bringing this much closer. I gave them some chance last week and again the just didn’t measure up under pressure, some of their offering and handling pathetic including turning over the ball 13 times alone in teh 2nd half, they were dam luck they were not flogged by 30. Off such form its not hard to work out why they have only won just 1 of their last 5 against Top 8 sides, and if we look at their last 5 weeks they came off a flogging to the Cowboys up north then wins over the Dragons, Knights, Eagles (should have lost) and the Broncos – the Dragons, Knights, Eagles does not now ready well. They also lose Kasanio, a big body in wet conditions.

Cowboys have won the last three including the touch up of 36-0 over the Bulldogs just 5 weeks ago, but they have only won 2 of their last 6 and both of those wins were at home. As expected they were much better last week, in particular seeing the much stronger individual form of Morgan but the Warriors away is also not strong form.

Bulldogs have failed to cover their last seven and have gone under in their last five while the Cowboys have covered just 3 of their last 9, hardly anything for us to get our teeth into, and then a likely very heavy track. being the first game of the round the bookies opened their totals marks late (mid today) and already had it positioned very safely at under 36. With the Cowboys, had it been a dry track I would have wanted to bet, but not now.


Storm vs Broncos

-8.5 Storm

 

Stats

The 2nd match of the Round featuring 2 Top 8 combatants sees ladder leaders the Storm, hosting the 6th placed Broncos in Friday Night Football. The Storm has completely dominated the Broncos since 2007, winning 17 of the 20 clashes, while they have won 11 of the previous 13 meetings in Melbourne. The Storm return home after back to back road legs to complete their travel for the regular season and a win over the Broncos will see them wrap up the Minor Premiership. Melbourne has won 14 of their last 16 and has suffered just the 1 defeat at AAMI Park in 2016, which was a 6 point loss to the Bulldogs way back in Round 6. They remain at the top of the ladder for the 3rd consecutive week and haven’t sat lower than 2nd since Round 11. Their defence and differential are the best in the competition, while they rank 4th in attack. The Storm is split evenly ATS, producing an 11-11 result and have covered in 10 of their last 15. They have a 5-5 cover record at home, with a 10-14 home record since 2014 when laying 6 points or more, while they have covered in their last 6 straight against Brisbane. In TMP’s they are 16-6 Under, with 5 of their last 6 totaling 36 or less, while 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Broncos have totaled 38 or less. A Melbourne try has been the 1 st scoring play in 11 of the previous 13 clashes with the Broncos. Suliasa Vunivalu bagged a hat trick in his last match against the Broncos and with his 4 tries last week, he is now the NRL’s leading try scorer with 21. Brisbane will be looking for 4 straight wins for the 1st time since April and if they can do so they will keep their slim chances of a Top 4 finish alive but more than likely secure a home semi-final in Week 1. They are 4 & 6 against the Top 8 and have won 2 of 5 against the Top 4. Brisbane remains in 6th spot with the 6th best attack, while their defence and differential both rank 5th. The Broncos are 10-12 ATS and have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 away games, but they have covered in 6 of their last 7 on the road as an underdog. Brisbane are split 11-11 in TMP’s, while 4 of their last 5 against the Top 8 have all gone Over. The Broncos have won 13 of 15 this season with a half time lead, but have lost 7 from 7 when trailing at the break and only once from their last 14 matches in Melbourne have they led at the break

Preview

The Storm have an outstanding record over the Broncos, basically when played anywhere, we were with them when the underdog some weeks ago and handing their opponent a toweling and nothing has changed. They have won 22 of the last 27 match ups, 17 of the last 20 and 11 of the last 13 in Melbourne, a powerful argument.

Yes the Broncos have won their last and their has been some positive signs, but this is an acid test against the current table leader. The Broncos of this time last year with that much ball would have won last week by near 50, yet they scored just the 1 try in the second half. But the wheels are turning in the right direction. I still worry about their authority (or lack of) in the middle, the scratchy form of Hunt and the quality (or depth) off their bench. I will be watching this game intently to see how they measure up.

I know in the end the Storm won comfortably enough last week, but had that have been anyone else mid table than the limp Eagles offering they were their to be beat. But, they now get a much better freshen up, week long Home prep and will be up for this against a major rival. I think at full strength they have an edge through the middle, and Bellamy was very clever pre and then during game pulling the Broncos apart on their left edge last time, I’m sure that will again be top of the menu here. Also, as has been his way through the last 10 weeks they will also play to their two key individual strengths on each wing with key kicking raids.

Storm come off two away games to then return home, they should improve further, expect they hard to beat here, well favoured and should cover.

Bet 2 units Storm -5.5 $1.91 William Hill / -6.0 Topsport


Eagles vs Raiders

+2.5 Eagles

 

Stats

The Raiders travel to Brookvale Oval to take on the Sea Eagles in what will be their final home game of the season. Manly has won 13 of the previous 17 clashes with the Raiders, including 8 of the last 10 meetings at Brookvale Oval. The Sea Eagles have now lost 3 in a row and have had a horror run with injuries, with only 3 other clubs having a longer playing list. Their win over the Sharks in Round 3 is their only win in 11 matches against the Top 8 and they have also lost 7 of their last 8 at home when starting as an outsider. The Sea Eagles are in 12th spot with an attack and defence that both rank 11th. They are 10-12 ATS and have covered in 6 of their last 8, but have failed to cover in 7 of their last 8 when getting a start at home. In TMP’s they are 12-10 in favour of the Under, while 4 of their last 5 at home have finished Over. The last 5 clashes with Canberra have also finished Over at an average of 55. A Manly try has been the 1st scoring play in 7 of the previous 8 clashes with the Raiders. The Raiders were given a scare last week before scoring 24 unanswered points against the Eels to extend their winning run to 8 consecutive matches. They have won 4 of their last 5 on the road and haven’t been beaten by a bottom 8 side since Round 10. They are now guaranteed a Top 4 finish and a possible top 2 finish is sure to keep them motivated. Canberra is the best attacking side in the NRL and along with their 7th ranked defence they have a differential that rates 4th. The Raiders are 14-8 ATS and have covered in their last 5 on the road, while they have also covered in the last 3 meetings with Manly. They are the Number 1 Overs side in the comp, producing a 16-6 result, with 10 of their last 12 finishing that way. The Raiders have scored the last try of the match in their last 7 matches and no side has scored more 2nd half points than the Raiders.

Preview

The Raiders long term record at this ground is poor winning just 2 of their last 10 here but for mine they get the right week to win, and likely win well.

I hate losing, and I hate losing 3 units on a bet, I can’t tell you how filthy I was first hearing the key 3 late team changes for the Eagles and then watching the insipid offering they put up against an opponent that was prime for a loss. They are rudderless in the halves, have muppets playing in the centres, Myles has been a terrible signing, I had given them the benefit of the doubt at wanting to still compete through to seasons end off their two prior efforts and close calls but the have now shown both with team selections and effort that they have put the white flag up. Coach Barrett has been one of the worst offenders all season long at naming make believe team lists on a Tuesday and then having numerous key late changes come game time, and I’m sure we will see this again this week, and those outs and changes will only weaken an already ordinary team list. The Storm scored 36, had they not come off such a physical game and 5 day turn around they’d have pumped 5 to 60 through quite easily so inept were their opponent.

The Raiders are a little on trust, difficult ground for them, off a few weeks of big wins and we saw some let down in the first 40 last week, but they have some significant resolve and belief right now that they can certainly step things up a gear when they wish (or if required). They have won 8 straight now and have momentum, they have depth, they have muscle and grunt through the middle in bucket loads and this will really work the Eagles over, and importantly they still have something to key playing for with 2nd spot available and the option of hosting a home semi final in week one (could you imagine that full house and atmosphere should that happen!).

All the stats suggest an overs play here being Raiders, day game and weak opponent, but I caution with all of rain that Sydney would have copped this ground is not a noted draining or great surface and chasing 46 might well be a major challenge – remembering that on a sunny dry track at home last week that game only just got to 46.

There may well be some slight risk with the Raiders of flatness and or this ground, but I want to be with them here and all of the key strengths and momentum that they have right now – up against a weak opponent. The Raiders just need to keep pumping through the middle, and play to their obvious strengths and the rest will happen, the Eagles will eventually roll over and this could see a significant score.

Update: Austin’s injury out is obviously not ideal, but against this side doesn’t overly concern me. I think they have strengths across the park, and can play to these with the #9, #7, #1 and then Williams stepping in, and anything like what the Eagles offered last week shouldn’t change things. Williams is also playing for a new contract with either club (Raiders and Eagles) and so will be keen to aim up.

Bet 3 units Raiders -5.5 $1.94 Crownbet BB


Titans vs Panthers

0.0 Titans

 

Stats

There will be plenty at stake when the Titans and Panthers go head to head on the Gold Coast in what shapes as 1 of the matches of the Round. A win for the Titans will see the Top 8 squared away with only the finishing positions to be finalized in the closing Round. The Panthers hold a slight all time advantage over the Titans, winning 8 of the 14 clashes and had won 4 straight before the Titans went back to back in the 2 most recent encounters. Wins on the glitter strip have been shared equally at 3 apiece, while the Titans will be looking for 3 consecutive wins over Penrith for the 1st time in their history. The Titans have lost just 1 of their last 6 but have been poor against their Top 8 counterparts, winning only 2 of 9. They have a 5-5-1 record at home this season and have won 3 of their last 4 as a favourite. The Titans have the 9th ranked defence, while their attack and differential both rank 8th . They have been an outstanding option ATS, covering in 16 of their 22 matches, while they have covered in 10 of their last 14 at CBus Stadium. In TMP’s they are 12-10 Under, with their last 4 finishing that way, while only 2 of their last 9 at home have totaled more than 40. The Titans have conceded the 1 st try in 8 of their 9 matches against a Top 8 opponent and they have also conceded the 1st try in the last 5 clashes with the Panthers. They have a perfect 8-0 win record when leading at half time, but have won only 2 of 9 when trailing at the break. The Panthers have now won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, with their last 3 wins all having a margin of 20 points or more, but like the Titans, Penrith have struggled for wins against the Top 8 sides, winning only 3 of 10. They are currently 7th and are likely to still make the Finals even if they were to lose their final 2 matches. They have an attack that ranks 5th and a defence that rates 8th, giving them a 69 point differential that ranks 7th. The Panthers have a 5-6 record on the road in 2016, but have lost 7 of their last 9 matches played interstate, while they have lost 9 of their last 11 as a road outsider. They are 12-10 ATS, with a 4-3 cover record as a road dog and have covered in 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Titans. In TMP’s they are 12-10 Over, with 5 of their last 10 topping 50, while 4 of the 6 clashes with the Titans played on the Gold Coast have also totaled 50 or more. In 11 of the last 13 meetings, the winning margin has been by 13+, while the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 7th minute in 5 of the last 6 clashes.

Preview

Excellent game but tricky match up. Panthers on a positive roll but beating weak opponents, now assured of top 8 spot do they mentally relax? Titans have also had a couple of similar soft wins, best spine and team they have fielded this yr, must win game to play finals. Slight lean to the home teams desperation.

More to follow.


Sharks vs Roosters

-5.5 Sharks

 

Stats

Super Saturday draws to a close when the inform Roosters travel to the shire to take on the out of from Sharks. The Sharks have had the Roosters measure in recent seasons, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters and they will be hoping that trend continues as they look to end a 3 game losing streak. Cronulla’s 15 game winning run is now a distant memory, as is their 10 weeks on top of the ladder and they are now a real risk of missing a top 2 finish and a home Final. Their attack has been stuttering and they haven’t scored more than 3 tries in their last 4 matches, while they have conceded 30 points or more in 2 of their last 3. Despite their 3 losses, they still have the 2nd best attack and the 3rd best defence in the competition. They are 12-10 ATS but have failed to cover in their last 4, while they have also failed to cover in 6 of their last 8 as a home favourite. They are 12-10 Under in TMP’s, with a 7-4 Under record at home, while they are 12-7 Under since 2015 as a home favourite. The Roosters have won 3 of their last 4 and one wonders where their current form has been all season. They have averaged more than 28 points a game over the last month and conceded 8 points per game less than they had prior to that point. They have now moved to 14th on the ladder and are ranked 12th in both attack and defence. The Tri-Colours are 9-13 ATS and have covered in 3 of their last 4, but have failed to cover in the previous 6 clashes with the Sharks. In TMP’s they are 15-7 in favour of the Overs and have had Overs results in 6 of their last 8, while 7 of the last 9 meetings with Cronulla at Shark Park have totaled 31 or less.

Preview

Sharks have the shakes, they are a risk here, but going with them getting back home and digging deep. Not straight forward.

More to follow


Warriors vs Tigers

-9.5 Warriors

 

Stats

The fate of both of these sides lies in the hands of the Titans on Saturday afternoon and should they beat the Panthers, the Warriors and Tigers will have little to play for as both sides have terrible differentials when compared to that of the Panthers. Honours have been shared equally from the 26 matches played between the Warriors and Tigers, while the Warriors hold a slight edge at Mt Smart Stadium, winning 6 of the 10 match ups. The Warriors had won 3 straight before the Tigers won the last 2, including an upset result when they last met in Round 1. The Warriors have lost back to back matches leading into this game, conceding a combined total of 75 points, but they have won 4 of their last 5 at home, including 3 of their last 4 as a starting favourite. They remain in 9th spot, with an attack that ranks 9th and a defence that rates 14th. The Warriors are 10-12 ATS and have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 at home as a favourite. They are 12-10 Over in TMP’s, while 7 of their last 9 have finished Unders. Meetings with the Tigers have generally been high scoring affairs, with the last 4 totaling 54 or more, while 11 of the last 14 have topped 42. The Warriors have won 5 of 6 with a half time lead this season, but have lost 11 of 13 when trailing at the break. Like the Warriors, the Tigers also come into this match off the back of 2 straight losses but the Tigers are on the road where they have won only 7 of their last 25 and 3 of their last 13 when playing in matches classed as distant away or interstate. They have also won only 3 of their last 14 as a road dog. The Tigers sit 1 spot below the Warriors in 10th and haven’t featured in the Top 8 since the opening 3 Rounds. They rank 10th in attack, while their defence is the 2nd worst in the NRL, conceding an average of 24 points a game. The Tigers are 12-10 ATS and have covered in only 3 of their last 10 on the road with a double digit advantage. In TMP’s they are 12-10 Over, while they are 20-10 Over since 2014 as a road dog and 9-3 Over since 2013 in distant away games. A Tigers try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of the last 10 clashes with the Warriors.

Preview

Two impostors, Warriors at home but we know what they are like as 10 point expected favs. Tigers look mentally shot with Tedesco missing.

Just not a game I want to spend much time on, the Warriors still now have something to play for and could potentially grab 8th spot if they can win this and next week, but their record late each yr when such a carrot is dangled in front of them is disgraceful. As we know, when under expectation they more often than not fail. They have one of their strongest team lists here, and meet a Tigers team further riddled with key injury outs.

Warriors should win, all the numbers point to a high scoring game and overs, but I am just not convinced.


Knights vs Rabbits

-14.5 Knights

 

Stats

The final home game of the season for the Knights which makes it Old Boys weekend where they have traditionally been very good, winning 7 of the last 11, but with just 1 win all season and facing a resurgent Rabbitohs side, they look up against it here. They have lost their last 6 straight against the Rabbitohs, with the last 3 defeats all being by 40 points or more, while their last 5 losses have all been by a margin of 13+, with an average losing margin of 24.4. They have lost 16 in a row and another loss this week will move them into outright 7th on the all-time list for consecutive games lost. The Knights have the worst attacking and defensive records in the competition by some margin and they have conceded more than 100 tries for the 3rd season in a row. Newcastle is 8-14 ATS and has failed to cover in 5 of their last 6, while they have covered in only 5 of 16 this season with a double digit advantage. In TMP’s they are 12-10 Over, but have had Unders results in 4 of their last 6, while 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Bunnies have all finished Over. The Knights have conceded the 1 st try in 13 of their last 14 and have failed to score more than 6 1st points in their last 6 matches. Souths have won 2 in a row and will be looking for 3 straight victories for the 1st time this season. They remain in 13th spot and the best they can finish is 11th, which will be their lowest finish since 2008. The Rabbits have a 9- 13 record ATS but they have covered in their last 3 straight, while they have easily covered in their last 3 against the Knights. They have a TMP record of 13-9 in favour of the Overs, but have had Unders results in 5 of their last 7, while 6 of their last 7 against a bottom 8 opponent have all finished Over. Souths have won 6 of 7 this season with a half time lead and only once in their last 6 against the Knights have they not led at the break. The Rabbitohs have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in the last 6 matches against the Knights who have scored 6 or less 2nd half points in 16 of their 22 matches. In FTS calculations, consider Alex Johnston as has scored 7 tries in his 3 matches against the Knights. The home side has lost the last 6 matches with Henry Perenara in charge.

Preview

Knights infamous Old Boys Day game where they can pull motivation and effort out of their backside, but gee they have major injury and form issues. By my count they will have at least 8 play outs for this game and be blooding another youngster with the key loss of Ross. They are no conceding an average of 34 points per game, even when playing at home this is still 32 pts, a terribly meek offering in defence.

Rabbits face their 3rd away game in 4 weeks and off Monday night but their form through these last 3 games reads very well with a win over Sharks, a flogging (away) over the Warriors and a late golden point loss (away) to the Storm. Having had their all but best team list back on deck McGuire looks to have also got their attitude back and we have now seen consistent smart efforts from them week in week out with them clearly determined to finish the season strongly.

While it might well be Old Boys day for the Knights I just can’t see how this young and damaged list can hold things together for longer than 20 minutes to compete. They have been showing signs each week now of falling apart, the Titans were scrappy at best last week yet still managed a 20 point margin and the Rabbits recent record against them has been very commanding winning their last 3 H2H by 40 point margins.

I want to be against the Knights, I have been somewhat conservative in marking this -14.5, could very easily have been much closer to -20, and I want to play the line.

Bet 2 units Rabbits -12.0 $1.93 Pinnacle


Eels vs Dragons

-7.5 Eels

 

Stats

The final ever game of MNF (at least until the next TV deal) sees the Parramatta Eels host the Dragons at Pirtek Stadium in a game that will have no bearing on the Top 8. There has been little between these sides over the years, with both sides recording 14 wins to go with 2 draws, while the Eels have a very good record at Pirtek Stadium, winning 9 of the 13 clashes. It’s the final home game of the season for the Eels who have won their last 3 matches against the Dragons. They have been poor at their traditional home ground in 2016 though, winning only 3 of 7, but that’s a better result than the Dragons record on the road, as they have won only 2 of 11. The Dragons have also failed to win at Pirtek Stadium since Round 1 of the 2010 season. The Eels have now dropped to 15th, losing 5 of their last 6 and they have conceded 22 points or more in all of those losses. They are 13-9 ATS and have covered in 7 of their last 10, but have covered in only 2 of their last 8 at Pirtek Stadium as a favourite. In TMP’s they are 13-9 Under, with an 8-3 Under record at home, while 11 of the previous 13 clashes with the Dragons have totaled 37 or less. The Dragons have lost 6 of their last 7 and will miss out on a spot in the finals for the 4th time in 5 years. They remain in 11th spot and haven’t sat higher than 8th all season. The Dragons rank 10th in attack, while both their defence and differential are the 2nd worst in the NRL. They have won 3 of 8 against sides ranked in the bottom half of the ladder and have lost the last 3 of those by a margin of 13+. In their last 7 matches they have averaged only 4 1st half points with a combined total of just 4 1st half tries. The Dragons are split evenly ATS, with an 11-11 record and are 4-7 when covering on the road, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 8 away from home with a start of 6 points or less. For the 5th time in the last 6 seasons, the Dragons have again been an Unders side and are 14-8 Under in 2016 with 2 Rounds to go, while 8 of their last 10 Monday night games have also finished Under. The Dragons will be pleased to see MNF come to an end as they have lost 11 of their last 12 Monday night fixtures.

Preview

Three important team changes for the Eels here Beau Scott, Brad Takairangi and Tepai Moeroa named as key ins, while  the Dragons drop Marshall and have Packer and Taane Milne as outs. The form line for either in not pretty with the Eels winning just 1 of their last 5 while the Dragons have won just 1 of their last 7, worse still the useless Dragons attack with them being held to 12 points of less in each of those 6 defeats.

The Dragons are a pathetic rabble, from Board to CEO to Coach, have nothing to play for and have been marking time as they slide down the ladder through recent months. The Eels have also had a season from hell but although losing have been committed and putting in each week, and it should be noted led the Raiders 18-4 in Canberra last week. With key players ins, back at home and an opportunity to put up a win in front of their die hard supporters I think they get their chance to win again.

Bet 2 units Eels -4.5 $1.91 William Hill


 

 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 25

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 24

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 24

 

MrG provides NRL Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 24 2016 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-3.5 Broncos vs Bulldogs

-9.5 Panthers vs Tigers

+16.5 Knights vs Titans

+6.5 Eagles vs Storm

-11.5 Cowboys vs Warriors

-13.5 Raiders vs Eels

-6.5 Roosters vs Dragons

+8.5 Rabbits vs Sharks

 


NRL Round 24 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Titans -13.5 $1.94 CrownBet

Bet 1 unit Eagles H2H $3.80 Sportsbet / William Hill

Bet 2 units Eagles +10.5 Sportsbet / William Hill

Bet 2 units Raiders-Eels over 42.5 $1.90 Topsport / Bet365 BB

Bet 1 unit Dragons +6.5 $1.95 Topsport

Bet 2 units Rabbits-Sharks under 41.5 Unibet $2.00 / Topsport

 

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Bulldogs, Panthers, Titans, Storm, Cowboys, Raiders, Roosters, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Broncos vs Bulldogs

-3.5 Broncos

Stats

Top 6 clash kicks off Round 23 when the Broncos host the Bulldogs from Suncorp Stadium. Both sides have had plenty of ups and downs throughout 2016, but they are 2 of only 4 sides that haven’t been positioned out of the Top 8 all season. The Bulldogs were comprehensive winners when they last met in Round 16 and a win this week will make it both 3 in a row and 2 wins in a season over the Broncos for the 1st time since 2004. It’s the final away game of the regular season for Canterbury who has won 8 of their 11 away games and they have also won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium. The Dogs have won 7 of their last 8 but have been a 50/50 proposition against their Top 8 counterparts, winning 4 of 8, while their last win over Brisbane is their only win over a Top 8 side since Round 9. The Bulldogs remain 4th on the ladder, while they rank 7th in attack and 4th in defence, giving them a 94 point differential that rates 5th. They are a poor 7-14 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 6 straight, while they have also failed to cover in their last 3 on the road when getting a start. In TMP’s they are 11-10 Under, including their last 4 straight, while 7 of the last 9 clashes with the Broncos have also finished Unders, with only 2 of them topping 38. The Dogs have conceded the 1st try of the match in 6 of their last 8, while they have conceded 3 tries or more in 9 of their last 11. Brisbane has now recorded back to back wins but there are still plenty of questions marks over their form as they have lost 5 of their last 6 against sides currently in the Top 8, conceding and average of almost 40 points per game in the last 3 of those. However, they are at home for the 2nd week in a row with a full week to prepare, in front of a big crowd and now with some momentum so it’s now or never. They are 9-12 ATS and have covered in only 1 of their last 5 at Suncorp Stadium, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 9 against sides currently in the Top 8. Brisbane is 11-10 Over in TMP’s, with only 1 of their last 9 failing to top 40. A Broncos try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 against the Dogs, while they have scored the last try of the match in 6 of the previous 7 clashes. Corey Oates secured his 2nd hat trick of the season last week and he has been the 1st try scorer of the match in the last 2 clashes with the Bulldogs.

Preview

Very even match up for mine, and two teams that are difficult to get a quality handle on the strength of their form or consistency. The Broncos have won their last two, but that is glossed over somewhat by the fact that they got the Dragons on a bog wet track and then an ordinary Eels side who perform very poorly on distant away games. Yes we saw some positive glimpses last week, but this will be a very different forward, muscle and defensive opponent. The Bulldogs equally are difficult to read, they were there to be beaten last week, but somehow they just keep finding ways to win, and notably are normally good at lifting for the key games, and this is one of them. They whacked the Broncos up the middle earlier this yr, physically gave them a real work over and then dominated the game, and I lean to something similar unfolding here. Eastwood is a key in, he plays a very important role in this side, especially physically, and then they have size, strength and depth on the bench.

Slight lean to Bulldogs, they will be focused on a power muscle game through the middle, and I think they have a key edge in the size and top grade quality of their bench. Not a game I want to play in, if I was to look for an angle it would be total points under.


Panthers vs Tigers

-9.5 Panthers

Stats

The Tigers finals aspirations will go on the line when they travel to Pepper Stadium to take on a resurgent Panthers outfit. They do have a very good recent record over the Panthers in their favour, winning 8 of the last 10 meetings, including the last 3 match ups at Pepper Stadium, but it’s a tough run home for the Tigers who travel to Auckland after this match, before taking on the Raiders in the final Round. Their 3 game winning run came to a halt last week against the Titans and they will also be without Tedesco for the remainder of the season after he suffered a broken jaw. They are 4 & 6 on the road this season, while they have lost 10 of their last 13 away games when starting as an outsider. The Tigers are 10th on the ladder, with the 10th ranked attack, while they are 13th in defence, giving them a differential of -48 that rates 12th . They have won 10 of 13 this season when going to half time with a lead, while they have lost 7 from 7 when trailing at the break. The Tigers are 12-9 ATS, including covering in 6 of their last 7, while they have also covered in 5 of their last 6 as a road dog. In TMP’s they are 11-10 in favour of the Overs, but their last 4 have all finished Under, with none of them finishing higher than 40. Either Nofoaluma (2) or Naiqama (3) have been the Tigers 1st try scorer in the Tigers last 5 matches. The Panthers have won 4 of their last 5 and their demolition job on the Knights last week ensured they were able to remain in 7th spot on the ladder. They have won 8 of their last 10 against sides ranked in the bottom half of the ladder, while they have also won 5 of 7 this year when starting as a home favourite. The Panthers rank 6th in attack and 8th in defence, while their 39 point differential rates 7th. They are 11-10 ATS but have covered in only 1 of their last 6 at Pepper Stadium. Penrith are 11-10 Over in TMP’s, with 6 of their last 8 against the bottom 8 sides finishing Overs. Josh Mansour is now the Panthers leading try scorer with 13 and he has scored 10 tries from his last 10 appearances for Penrith. Night matches with Jared Maxwell in charge are 10-1 Under this season.

Preview


Knights vs Titans

+16.5 Knights

Stats

It’s a must win game for the Titans when they travel to Hunter Stadium to take on the Knights as they look to keep their Finals aspirations alive. With their final 2 games against sides currently in the Top 8, a win against the Knights will see the pressure ease a little as they will only need to win 1 of their remaining 2 to ensure a Finals birth for the 1st time since 2010. The Knights hold a 9-6 all time advantage over the Titans and have won 4 of the last 6 meetings, while wins at Hunter Stadium have been split evenly since 2010, with both sides recording 3 wins a piece. The Titans come into this match with just 1 loss from their last 5 matches, including wins in their last 2 on the road and will be looking to record consecutive wins over the Knights for the 1st time in their history. They are currently in 8th spot, with an attack that ranks 9th and a defence ranking of 10th. They are the best cover side in the NRL, with a 15-6 ATS record but they are in unfamiliar territory this week, starting as a road favourite for only the 4th time in 3 seasons. In TMP’s they are 11-10 in favour of the Under, while 5 of the last 7 clashes with Newcastle have also finished Under. The Titans have won 7 from 7 this season with a half time lead and they have never lost to the Knights when leading at the break. Anthony Don is the Titans leading try scorer with 12 and he has scored a try in his last 5 appearances, while he has scored 4 tries in his last 4 games against the Knights, 2 of them as the 1st try scorer of the match. The Knights have now lost a club record 15 in a row and another loss this week will equal the longest losing streak by any team since 1993. Their last 4 defeats have all been by a margin of 13+, while they conceded the most 2nd half points of any side this season in last week’s loss to the Panthers, conceding 36 unanswered points after going to half time at 6 all. Newcastle is 8-13 ATS and has covered in only 3 of 6 at home with a double digit advantage in 2016. They are 12-9 Over in TMP’s, with 9 of their 11 previous matches against the Top 8 totaling 40 or more. The Knights have conceded the 1st try of the match in 12 of their last 13 and in their last 5 they haven’t scored more than 6 1st half points. In 5 of the last 6 meetings, the winning margin has been by 13+, while only once in the 15 previous encounters has the half time leader been run down.

Preview

Knights have now lost their last 15 straight and conceded all but 30 points or more at their last 4 games, the end of season can’t come quick enough for them. They rolled over meekly in the 2nd 40 last week, and while Brown will be into them to stick to the task for 80 this week if the Titans can crack them a few times and take any spirit out of them quickly then this should be one way traffic again. Knights also have further key outs with Mullen and Sione Mata’utia.

Titans got themselves back on the board with a tough late away win last week and still remain in finals contention. Roberts looks like playing and Ash Tayor resting, still a strong line up and halves combination and I’d suggest against a weaker defensive offering Hayne can have a big influence here.

I have the Titans rated slightly higher than the Panthers at this stage of the season, the Panthers were suited with the game style last week and did a number on their opponent, I think the Titans measure up with a similar position here and am keen to be with them to cover the line.

Bet 2 units Titans -13.5 $1.94 CrownBet


Eagles vs Storm

+6.5 Eagles

Stats

Another chapter to one of the great modern day rivalries will be written when the Sea Eagles host the Storm at Brookvale Oval. The Storm are on a short 5 day turn around and are on the road for the 2nd week in a row after the Raiders bashed the ladder leaders from pillar to post on Monday night and it could be more of the same here with a Manly side looking to cause as much damage as they can to those who are Finals bound. It’s more than 12 months since these sides last met when the Sea Eagles made it back to back wins to give them an opportunity this week to make it 3 straight for the 1st time in 10 years. There has been little between these sides since the 2008 Grand Final, with both sides recording 7 wins each, to go with the 1 draw, while 5 of the last 6 encounters have been decided by 3 points or less. Manly come into this match in 11th spot and will miss the Top 8 for the 2nd year in a row, they also rank 11th in both attack and defence. They had won 4 straight before suffering narrow losses in their last 2, a 1 point loss to the Eels and a Golden Point loss to the Dogs which all but ended any slim Finals chances they were clinging to. Manly is 10-11 ATS and have covered in 6 of their last 7, including their last 3 home games, while they have also covered in the last 3 clashes with Melbourne. They are 12-9 Under in TMP’s, with 4 of their last 5 finishing that way. The Sea Eagles have won 6 of 8 with a half time lead, but have lost 10 of 12 when trailing at the break. Manly has scored the opening points of the match in 10 of the last 12 clashes with the Storm who have conceded 1st points in their last 4 straight. Last week’s loss will have taken plenty out of the Storm, who have lost 9 of their last 11 in leg 2 of back to back away games since 2012. They conceded more than 20 points for the 1st time this season, while it was their fewest points in attack since Round 4. Melbourne still remains at the top of the ladder and are still the Number 1 ranked defensive side, while they are 5th in attack. The Storm are 11-10 ATS, with a 6-5 cover record on the road, but have failed to cover in their last 4 away games when laying more than a converted try. In TMP’s they are the Number 1 Unders side, with a 16-5 result, including their last 5 straight, none of which have topped 36. Only once in the last 6 clashes with Manly have Melbourne led at half time and they have also trailed at the break in their last 6 matches at Brookvale Oval.

Preview

While the Eagles are not rolled gold good things here they are certainly a live chance and I want to be with the risk as I think they get a few major things in their favour and then get their opponent on possibly the right week. Eagles should well have won their last two, they didn’t but I like the fact that they are competing, are up for the contest and giving it their best shot, plus those two positive efforts were on the road and they now get a home gig at a venue to advantage (Brookvale). Fine mine we then add in the fact to my eye the Storm look very venerable here, they were physically whacked last night, really worked over and then have a short turn around of 5 days into another away game into Sydney. This is a stand out issue for mine, physically being whacked and worked over last night as they were and then having to come up quickly into short turn around and away game. Without factoring in the physical confrontation and with a couple of Eagles outs I still only handicap this at 6.5 / 8 pts. Storm can win, they are top of the table, but as we saw last night not infallible but a decent risk, Eagles form is ok, Brookvale huge advantage, I want to be with the risk.

Bet 1 unit Eagles H2H $3.80 Sportsbet / William Hill

Bet 2 units Eagles +10.5 Sportsbet / William Hill


Cowboys vs Warriors

-11.5 Cowboys

Stats

The final match on Super Saturday sees the Cowboys return home where they will take on the Warriors. The Cowboys have won the last 2 meetings with the Warriors and will be looking to make it 3 straight for the 1st time since 2008 and in the process snap a 3 game losing streak that has seen them drop from 3rd to 5th. Wins have been shared equally since 2009 with both sides recording 5 wins a piece, while wins in Townsville have been hard to come by for the Warriors, who have won only 1 of their last 10 matches at 1300SMILES Stadium since 2003. The Cowboys will be looking to get things back on track after a couple of tired looking efforts on the road. They have won 9 of 10 at home this season with their only blemish their last start against the Storm and they haven’t lost consecutive home games since Round 2 last year. Despite failing to score more than 14 points in 4 of their last 5, North Queensland are still ranked 2nd in attack, while their defence and differential both rank 3rd They are 10-11 ATS and have covered in only 3 of their last 12, but have covered in 5 of their last 6 at home when laying a double digit start. In TMP’s they are 13-8 Under, with their last 6 straight finishing that way, while they are split evenly at home with a 5-5 result. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in 9 of their 10 home games, while Antonio Winterstein has been the Cowboys 1st try scorer in 3 of their last 4 at home. The Warriors are coming off their 3rd biggest loss of the season, which was against a Rabbitohs side that had lost 9 in a row. They have won only 4 of 11 as the away side this season, while they have won only 2 of 7 on the road against the Top 8. The Warriors have now dropped out of the Top 8 after last week’s loss with the 8th ranked attack, while their defence is ranked 13th. Like the Cowboys, the Warriors are 10-11 ATS and they have covered in 4 of their last 5 away games. They are 12-9 Under in TMP’s, with 6 of their last 8 finishing that way, while they have had Unders results in 5 of their last 6 on the road with a start of more than a converted try. A Warriors try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 3 clashes with the Cowboys, while Solomone Kata has scored a double in his last 2 matches. In 8 of the last 9 night matches refereed by Ashley Klein, the TMP’s have finished Overs.

Preview

Two teams coming of poor performances I’m happy to just be watching here. Everything suggests the Cowboys should win, and likely cover, they have a stunning home track record return home off 2 away games and surely improve off two losses. The issues are a little hard to read at present, my guess is they have been playing on some heavy legs after a number of weeks of heavy fitness work and they’ll start to turn this around into the final few weeks and the start of the finals, but time will tell.

The Warriors, well what does one say. When no expectation two weeks ago they aim up for an away win over the Titans, a good strong tough win, yet a week later when short priced favs back at home against a side who had lost their prior 9 straight they roll over pathetically and concede 41 points with ease. Back into a game with little expectation if would not surprise to see them have a go, but gee they are hard to trust.

Cowboys back at home to win, but I just want to watch what unfolds and what teh quality of play and execution from both sides looks like.


Raiders vs Eels

-13.5 Raiders

Stats

After knocking over the top 2 sides in their last 2 matches, the Raiders will play their final home game of the regular season against a Parramatta side that has finally wilted in what has been a very difficult year. Canberra are surging towards the Finals Series, with 10 wins from their last 11 matches, while a win over the Eels will make it 8 consecutive wins for the 1st time in 21 years. The Raiders were outstanding on Monday night and anything near that performance again will seem them winning comfortably but they will have to do it without Josh Hodgson who will miss his 1st game of the season and he has been an integral part of their success. Canberra has won 6 of their last 8 matches against the Eels and 9 of the last 10 clashes at GIO Stadium, with the Eels recording just 1 win at the ground in 15 years. The Raiders have won their last 7 straight as a starting favourite, while they have won their last 5 against sides currently in the bottom 8. Canberra remain in 3rd spot for the 3rd week in a row with the best attacking record in the NRL, averaging almost 27 points a game, while they are ranked 6th defensively with a 166 point differential that ranks 4th. They are 14-7 ATS and have covered in 11 of their last 14, including 5 of their last 7 at home, but they have failed to cover in 5 of their last 7 when laying a start of more than a converted try. In TMP’s they continue to be the Number 1 Overs side in the comp, producing a 15-6 result, with 9 of those coming from their last 11 matches. The Raiders are also a big Overs side in day games, going 11-2 Over in 2016, with a 30-10 record in day games since 2014, while the last 3 clashes with the Eels have also finished Over. A Raiders try has been the 1st scoring play in 9 of the previous 11 meetings with the Eels. The Eels have now lost 4 of their last 5 and their last 4 straight away from home, in a year that promised so much, they will have little to show for what has been an amazing effort. From Rounds 4 to 17 they were never out of the Top 8 but since being stripped of their 12 competition points that are now languishing in 14th spot. Their unadjusted attack and defence rankings are 14th and 5th but they have conceded an average of 24 points a game since Round 18. The Eels are 12-9 ATS and have covered in 4 of their last 5 with a double digit advantage. They are 13-8 Under in TMP’s, while 5 of their last 7 day games on the road have finished Over. The 1 st try of the match has been scored by the 5th minute in 4 of the Eels last 5 games.

Preview

I think the likely game profile and circumstances suit plenty of points. The Raiders certainly should win, come off a very impressive win last Monday night (and prior strong form line), stay at home and should be able to open this game up. They should be very buoyed with belief and confidence off these last two wins. They might though be slightly venerable to some let down and more relaxed defence, and so see points either way.

We touched on the Eels distant away record last week, which is very poor, and they compounded quickly into the second half last week. They face a second week on the road into another out of Sydney away game, but they can shift the ball with Radradra back and a possibly more open defensive offering I think they look like having some points to offer. 4 of last 5 away games have all gone over with average totals each over 50 points, while at their last 4 away games they have been conceding 30 odd points.

The Raiders are the best overs team in the comp, especially at home day games, and will come into this off a short turn around and risk of leaking as well as scoring. Looks a perfect game for plenty of points, could well be 50 or so, I like the overs.

Bet 2 units Raiders-Eels over 42.5 $1.90 Topsport / Bet365 BB


Roosters vs Dragons

-6.5 Roosters

Stats

The 2nd and final match of Round 24 featuring 2 last start winners sees the Roosters host the Dragons from Allianz Stadium. Both sides are coming off their best performances of the season but both have little to play for other than bragging rights with both sides out of Finals contention. The Roosters have won 6 of the last 8 clashes with the Dragons, as well as winning 5 straight outside of the traditional Anzac Day clash. They are at home for the 2nd week in a row in what is their final home game of the season as they look for back to back wins for the 1st time in 2016. Both sides have struggled to score points this season and that’s reflected in the rankings, with the Roosters ranked 13th, while the Dragons rank 2nd last, averaging less than 14 points a game. Points have also been at a premium in recent clashes between the 2 sides, with 4 of the last 6 totaling 38 or less. The Roosters are 8-13 ATS but have covered in 5 of their last 7 at home, while they have covered in 7 of their last 10 at home when favoured by more than a converted try. In TMP’s they are 14-7 Over, with 5 of their last 7 totaling 40 or more. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in 7 of the last 8 non Anzac Day clashes with the Dragons who have conceded the 1st try of the match in 5 of their last 6. The Dragons snapped a 5 game losing streak when they defeated the Sharks last week but they are on the road this week where they have only managed 2 wins from 10 matches all season, while they have won only 1 of their last 15 matches as a road outsider. They are 11-10 ATS, but have covered in only 3 of their last 9 away from home. In TMP’s they are 15-7 Under, with a 7-3 Under record on the road, while they are 14-5 Under as a road outsider since 2015. In 5 of the Dragons 10 away games they have failed to score a 1st half try, while they have lost 12 of 13 this season when trailing at half time and they have trailed to Roosters at the break in 7 of the last 9 clashes. The home side has won 14 of the last 17 matches this season when Matt Cecchin has been in charge.

Preview

Another game I don’t like. Right now it’s impossible to draw an conclusion through the last start wins by both sides. The Roosters have been bottom 4, granted they got some key ins back and were at home but then soundly beat the Cowboys. Dragons decide 23 weeks into the season to pull some ball play and shift out of tehir you know where and rattle up 32 points against the team sitting 2nd…. Please, reading tea leaves would be easier than this right now.

Slight lean to the Roosters being at home and that same list as last week, lets see if the Dragons keep the shackles off an have a dip with the ball. Roosters but don’t like the game.

Sunday morning update: My mail is Roosters may have had a heavy dose of the flu through the place this week with numerous players missing training and possibly might not be in their best fitness condition (or some risk) into this game, worth a small play in open game.

Bet 1 unit Dragons +6.5 $1.95 Topsport


Rabbits vs Sharks

+8.5 Rabbits

Stats

Round 24 draws to a close with the Rabbitohs hosting the Sharks from ANZ Stadium. The Rabbitohs shocked all last week in their 1st half demolition of the Warriors, while the Sharks also shocked plenty when they went down to the Dragons. Cronulla has won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Rabbitohs, including a dominant performance in their recent meeting in Week 1 of last year’s Final Series, while wins have been shared equally since 2010, with both sides recording 5 wins each. In 5 of the last 6 meetings the TMP’s have finished Under, while only once in the previous 8 clashes have the TMP’s totaled more than 40. The Rabbitohs ended their 9 game losing run and will be looking for back to back wins for the 1st time since May. They will need to overcome a diabolical record against sides currently in the Top 8 though as they have lost 9 from 9 previously. Souths are 13th on the ladder, with an attack that ranks 12th, while they are the 2nd worst defensive team in the NRL, conceding an average of 24.8 points per game. They are 8-13 ATS and have covered in only 2 of 9 against the Top 8, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 8 at ANZ Stadium where they have lost 7 of their last 8 and conceded 30 or more in their last 4 at the ground. In TMP’s they are 13-8 Over, with 5 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium also finishing Over, while 6 of their last 8 games of MNF have finished Under. Souths have conceded the 1st try of the match in 12 of their last 14 at ANZ Stadium, while they have also conceded the 1st try in 11 of the last 15 clashes with the Sharks. The Sharks are now without a win from their last 3 matches but remain in 2nd spot and in the hunt for the Minor Premiership. They are ranked 2nd in attack and 3rd in defence with a differential that also rates 2nd. Last week’s defeat was their only loss from their past 8 matches against a bottom 8 opponent. Cronulla are 12-9 ATS but have failed to cover in their last 3 straight. In TMP’s they are 11-10 Under and 10-4 Under since 2015 in night games as a starting favourite. The Sharks are undefeated in MNF this year, with 4 wins and a draw. The team to score the 1st points of the match has also gone on to win the last 8 encounters. MNF is 15-7 Under this season, while the home team has failed to cover in 9 of the last 10 matches where Ben Cummins has been in charge.

Preview

I like the Sharks to be winning but also think the markets have the line right. The Rabbits come through losing 9 straight and then touching up the Warriors last week, but I really have my doubts over the strength and quality of that game, the Warriors were just terrible and went on to leak 41 points. They have then come out last night and been comfortably touched up by the Cowboys, again leaking plenty of soft points (and scoring little themselves). They do have an improved list, and return home off two away games, but they are hard to have having lost 9 of 9 against top 8 sides season to date and losing 7 of their last 8 at Homebush. Reynolds is also in doubt.

The Sharks come off another questionable game that I also am happy to forgive, beaten well at Kogarah by Dragons. The Dragons pulled something out of their backside, have reverted to norm Sunday and been flogged by Roosters and Sharks have probably had some excuses through recent weeks. It’s common knowledge that the Origin schedule had shortened them up a little into the last month and that they had not had a “normal” week of team training for some 8 weeks. They looked flat last week, possibly heavy legs, and faded into the second 40. They have now gone into a 3 day out of Sydney team camp to prepare for this game and the weeks ahead and get themselves back on track. I expect that they will, and win.

Being a Monday night game and with expected improvement and focus from the Sharks I like the unders angle here. Prior to their recent lapse their defence has been their strength holding teams to 12 to 14 pts, and winning. Off a 3 game losing streak, into camp, I’m sure rolling their sleeves up and just focusing of tough defence will be their goal (and winning), and their record is very strong at 10 of last 14 night games under when starting fav. The Rabbits have a similar record for Monday night games, with 6 of their last 8 finishing under. Should Reynolds not play then this would only be further enhanced. My workings have the total game points approx 32 to 36, with a Sharks win something like 22-12, think the 40.5 looks a touch too high and want to be with teh under. Rain is also forecast for Monday in Sydney.

Bet 2 units Rabbits-Sharks under 41.5 Unibet $2.00 / Topsport


 

 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 24

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 23

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 23

 

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 23 2016 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-3.5 Bulldogs vs Eagles

-12.5 Broncos vs Eels

0.0 Tigers vs Titans

-10.5 Warriors vs Rabbits

+8.5 Dragons vs Sharks

+14.5 Knights vs Panthers

+3.5 Raiders vs Storm

 


NRL Round 23 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 1 unit Eagles +6.5 $1.93 Pinnacle

Bet 1 unit Titans H2H $2.01 Pinnacle

Bet 3 units all up Warriors $1.36 x Sharks $1.27 x Panthers $1.23 / $2.12 Pinnacle BB

Bet 3 units Panthers -11.5 $1.93 Pinnacle

With our all up now dead and -11.5 or -12.0 still available for Panthers today I am having 1 additional unit bet on that option.

 

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Eagles, Broncos, Titans, Warriors, Sharks, Panthers, Cowboys, Storm


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Bulldogs vs Eagles

-3.5 Bulldogs

Stats

Round 23 gets underway with 2 arch enemies adding another chapter to their recent rivalry when the Dogs host the Sea Eagles at ANZ Stadium. The Bulldogs have a dominant recent record over Manly, having won the last 5 straight and 8 of the last 10, which includes 3 of the last 4 meetings at ANZ Stadium. More often than not, these clashes have been closely fought, low scoring contests in recent years, with 7 of the last 11 matches decided by single figures, while only 2 of the previous 13 clashes have topped 44 points, with 8 of the last 11 meetings totaling less than 40. The Bulldogs come into this match with 6 wins from their last 7 games, which sees them move back into the Top 4. They are 5th in both attack and defence rankings while their 90 point differential also rates 5th. They have won 9 of their last 10 matches against a bottom 8 opponent and they have also won 6 of their last 7 games played at ANZ Stadium. Only once in their last 15 matches have the Dogs trailed at half time and they have also led at the break in the last 5 clashes with Manly. The Dogs have been a losing proposition ATS, producing a 7-13 result and have failed to cover in their last 5 straight. Canterbury is split evenly in TMP’s, with a 10-10 result, which has seen them go Over in 7 straight prior to going Under in their last 3, while 5 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium have all finished Over. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 9 of the last 11 clashes with the Sea Eagles while the 1st try of the match has not been scored until after the 7th minute in 8 of the last 10 meetings. Curtis Rona has scored 22 tries from 25 games at ANZ Stadium, but has failed to score in 2 of his last 3 at the ground. The Sea Eagles 4 game winning run came to an end last week and with that, it would appear so too did their chances of making the Top 8. They have lost 6 of 7 this season against the Top 6 sides and 3 of their last 4 matches are against sides currently sitting in the Top 4. Manly has lost 5 of their last 6 away games, 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog and they haven’t won at ANZ Stadium since losing the 2013 Grand Final. The Sea Eagles have been very good front runners, winning 6 of 8 with a half time lead, but have lost 9 of 11 when trailing at the break. Manly’s attack and differential both match their overall position of 11th, while their defence ranks 9th . They are 9-11 ATS but have covered in 5 of their last 6 and in 5 of their last 7 as a road outsider. In TMP’s they are 11-9 Under, with a 5-2 Under record on the road. Jorge Taufua has scored 5 tries from his last 5 games against the Bulldogs and is Manly’s leading try scorer with 10 tries from 14 appearances.

Preview

While the Bulldogs do have a healthy recent record over their opponent I just don’t like their form at present and think they a significant risk here. Legless wins over the Knights and Dragons have been very poor on quality formine. The Eagles are desperate,must win to stay in anyway touch with the finals, they get Lyon back and come through a formline at least similar to the Bulldogs. Looks a close tussle, far closer I think than the markets have it, I  want to be with the desperation of the Eagles and I think they can cause an upset and win outright.

Bet 1 unit Eagles +6.5 $1.93 Pinnacle


Broncos vs Eels

-12.5 Broncos

Stats

Friday night regulars, the Broncos, play host to the Parramatta Eels from Suncorp Stadium in 1 of only 2 matches this Round featuring 2 last start winners. Brisbane returned to the winners circle last week and will be looking for back to back wins for the 1st time since Round 8 and in the process, build some much needed momentum as they head towards the Finals. The Broncos have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Eels but will need to be wary as Parramatta has won 3 of the previous 5 meetings at Suncorp Stadium. Recent meetings have been close encounters with 6 of the last 8 matches decided by a margin of 1-12 points. After winning 6 straight at Suncorp Stadium, the Broncos have now lost 3 of their last 4 at the ground but they are unbeaten against sides currently ranked in the bottom 4, winning 6 from 6. Win or lose, it’s likely Brisbane will remain in 6th spot for the 6th week in a row, while their attack, defence and differential are all ranked 6th also. They are 8-12 ATS and have failed to cover in 8 of their last 9, including their last 4 when laying a double digit start. In TMP’s they are split evenly, producing a 10-10 result, while 6 of their last 8 have finished Overs. Brisbane has won 11 of 13 this season when going to half time with a lead, but have lost 7 from 7 when trailing at the break, while the half time leader has won 8 of the last 9 clashes between the Broncos and Eels. The Eels ended a 3 game losing streak last week and like the Broncos, will also be looking for back to back wins, only theirs will be for the 1st time since having their 12 competition points deducted. They have lost 10 of their last 12 interstate matches and have covered a line in only 2 of those, while 10 of them have finished Overs in TMP’s. Parramatta is now 12th and have the same ranking in attack, while their defence ranks 4th, giving them a differential of 17 that rates 7th. They are 12-8 ATS and have covered in 6 of 10 as an underdog, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 on the road with a double digit advantage since 2014. In TMP’s they heavily favour the Unders, producing a 13-7 result, while they are 7-3 Under versus the Top 8 and 7-3 Under as an outsider. The Eels have conceded 18 or more points in 5 of their last 6 and in 3 of their last 4 they have failed to score a 2nd half try. Only once since Round 6 have the Eels not scored a try down their right edge, with Bevan French being the major beneficiary, scoring 11 tries since his debut in Round 12.

Preview

Another trick game with the Broncos very much on trust. The finally broke through for a win last weeks but it was typically a rough grind in wet weather against another struggling opponent in the Dragons, they still have a lot to do to be turning on any sort of quality form toward the finals. With McGuire, Thaiday and Gillett back last week their forward balance and offering was much better, and we did see some glimpses of both Hunt and Milford playing more direct and with a little more confidence. While their recent record at home has not been good they will be better suited this week with a back to normal 7 day home prep and then local support. I think they have, on paper a key advantage in the 7, 6 and 1 roles, and can hurt the Eels down either edge or with their favoured width / spread plays.

The Eels keep on keeping on under all sorts of adversity but their worst offerings have been interstate away games (and is a long term negative over many recent years) with them losing 10 of their last 12 and also failing to cover the line at 10 of the last 12. Beau Scott is a key out in the middle for them, they look likely to get Radradra back, they do have some muscle and grunt in the middle which if they can focus the game there can hurt the Broncos, but I think the likely game style is up against them here.

With a clear weather forecast the key to the Broncos here will be playing the game at some speed, quick roll forwards through the ruck, some off load and second phase play and then be setting up ball shift options. Sides who have moved the Eels big middle around have done so to advantage, they can lack lateral agility in defense, and with their make shift halves and then three quarter pairings be caught out positionally in defence. I think the Broncos win by 3 tries, had I a touch more confidence that they were on the way back or anywhere near their potential then they’d be likely to rack up a number here against a determined but patchwork opponent, but right now I want to see the Broncos step up a gear and show some improved form before taking on a line of 14. If you are looking for a Friday night interest then Broncos to cover would be the play but I will be staying out.


Tigers vs Titans

0.0 Tigers

Stats

Super Saturday kicks off with 2 sides desperate for a win as they battle to secure a spot in the Top 8. The Titans have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Tigers, including a come from behind win when they last met in Round 3. There hasn’t been a lot separating these 2 sides, with the Titans holding a 2 game all time advantage, while wins have been shared equally from the last 14 meetings. It’s the 1st time in 5 years that they have clashed at Campbelltown, with the Tigers winning 2 of the previous 3 meetings. The Titans have dropped from 7th to 10th on the ladder after last week’s loss, with the Panthers, Warriors and Tigers all leap frogging them after they all recorded wins. They rank 10th in defence and 8th in attack and are 1 of only 2 sides out of the Top 8 with a positive differential. They have won 7 of 9 against their bottom 8 counterparts, with the 3 most recent victories all being by a margin of 20 points. The Titans have the lowest average in the comp for the time of the 1st try being scored and in 14 of their 20 matches, including their last 6 straight, the 1st try has been scored by the 7th minute. They remain as the Number 1 ranked side ATS, covering in 14 of their 20 matches and they have covered in their last 6 straight when starting as a road dog, while they have covered in their last 4 meetings with the Tigers. The Titans are split evenly in TMP’s, while 4 of the previous 6 meetings with the Tigers have finished Over. Anthony Don is now the Titans leading try scorer with 10 and he has crossed in his last 4 appearances. The Tigers are on a roll after 3 consecutive wins and will be looking to make it 4 straight for the 1st time since 2012. They have won 3 of their last 4 at Campbelltown but have covered a line in only 2 of their last 7 at the ground. The Tigers are currently 9th and a win this week could see them in the Top 8 for the 1st time since March. Their attack ranks 10th, while they are ranked 13th in defence, giving them a differential of -47 that rates 12th. They are 12-8 ATS and have covered in their last 7 straight, but have covered in only 1 of their last 7 as a home favourite. In TMP’s they are 11-9 in favour of the Overs, while 3 of their last 4 at Campbelltown have totaled 60 or more. James Tedesco is the Tigers leading try scorer with 14 and he has scored 6 tries from his last 6 appearances at Campbelltown.

Preview

Cracking game for the early Saturday arvo game, Tedesco and Moses into Taylor and Hayne! Take my hat off to the Tigers, they rose to the occasion, made defence their foundation and beat the Cowboys fair and square last week at Leichhardt. I expected them to have a crack, but clearly that game had some massive focus and Taylor had really got them up and set for it (and they responded). I have some doubts if not issue now as to how they come up this week off what I think could be some let down.

The Titans come through an opposite course, they had a week of hype and expectation with the arrival of Hayne, at home, big crowd, yet struggled to put it all together and were fairly beaten by the Warriors. It’s also interesting looking at those two games last week, the Cowboys took a shocking record into Leichhardt (1 win in 16 years) and lost, the Titans took a shocking record H2H against the Warriors (losing 10 of prior 11 and last 5 straight at Gold Coast) into their clash and lost. At this level some teams just have bogey grounds or opponents, sometimes better to give the benefit of the doubt with such losses than read too much into them.

Both sides sit next to each other in 9th and 10th spots playing for a semi final position. Campbelltown should be a nice advantage for the Tigers, they have a good record here, but funnily enough the Titans do travel well and in particular have an excellent record as the road underdog and or at the + line as such. The Tigers tho have a poor record as expected home fav and have failed to cover 6 of their last 7 as such, and are shooting for the difficult 4 straight wins. The Titans come through a strong form line, should be more relaxed here, be desperate, and I expect Hayne will be a significant influence.

Excellent contest, lean to Titans to improve and have to win.

Bet 1 unit Titans H2H $2.01 Pinnacle


Warriors vs Rabbits

-10.5 Warriors

Stats

It’s back to back distant away games for the Rabbitohs, after going down to the Storm in Melbourne last week, they now travel to New Zealand to take on the Warriors. The Rabbitohs have won the last 4 clashes with the Warriors but only 1 of those matches was played at Mt Smart Stadium where they have lost 3 of the last 4 clashes. They have now lost 9 in a row and 5 of their last 6 away games, while they are yet to defeat a Top 8 opponent, losing 8 from 8. Last week’s loss to the Storm was a big improvement from what they had been producing and it was the 1st time since Round 6 that they conceded less than 20 points. Souths have now dropped to 13th spot on the ladder, with their attack and differential also ranking 13th, while defensively they rank 14th . They are 7-13 ATS and have covered in only 2 of their last 9, while they have covered in just 3 of their last 15 when getting a start. In TMP’s they are 12-8 Over but have gone Under in 4 of their last 5, while they are 6-1 Under in the weeks following a match against a Top 8 side. A Rabbitohs try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Warriors but they have conceded the 1st try in 4 of their last 5. The Warriors remain in 8th spot with an attack that ranks 7th and a defence that ranks 13th, while they are the only side in the Top 8 with a negative differential. They have won their last 5 matches at Mt Smart Stadium as well as winning 5 of their last 6 matches against sides in the bottom half of the ladder. The Warriors have been involved in plenty of close contests in recent weeks, with 6 of their last 7 decided by single figures, including 4 Golden Point matches. They are 10-10 ATS and have covered in their last 3 straight, but they have covered in only 1 of their last 7 at Mt Smart Stadium when laying a start of more than 6 points. In TMP’s they are 11-9 in favour of the Overs, but 6 of their last 7 have finished Under, while 5 of their last 6 against the bottom 8 have also gone Under. David Fusitua has now scored 11 tries from 14 appearances this season, including 4 tries in his last 3 matches and he has been the 1st try scorer of the match in his last 2 games.

Preview

I think the Warriors win, and likely cover the line but happy to just stick with the H2H result. I think last weeks effort from the Rabbits might well finish them, they have lost 9 straight and are into two road away games back to back. They’ve made a habit of leaking near 30 points most weeks, but last week finally had their strongest line up for sometime which certain;ly improved them. They have lost 5 of their last 6 away games and have a terrible record against top 8 sides.

Warriors come off a good month or so, they were favoured with their run through the Origin period but then could well have won a few more off their run of golden point games but then aimed up with a good quality tough away win over the Titans last week (but were also suited as the underdog). They return back home where they have won their last 5 games but I just don’t want to pull the trigger on a 10 point line off them having been in some many close results of late and a record of only covering 1 of their last 7 at home.


Dragons vs Sharks

+8.5 Dragons

Stats

A local derby closes out Super Saturday and as history shows, there has been little between sides, with the alltime honours shared equally at 18 wins each, while there has been 1 draw. The Sharks have won the 2 most recent encounters and will be looking to make it 3 straight for the 1st time since 2008, while a win will be their 1st at Kogorah since 2007. Generally these clashes have been low scoring affairs and only twice in the last 18 meetings since 2007 have the TMP’s been more than 40 with an average of 31. The Dragons have won 4 of their last 5 at Jubilee Oval but come into this match off the back of 5 consecutive losses. They remain in 12th spot with the 2nd worst attack in the NRL and the 8th ranked defence, while their differential of -165 rates 15th . The Dragons are 10-10 ATS and have covered in 5 of their last 6 against the Top 8 and they have also covered in 5 of their last 7 at Jubilee Oval. In TMP’s they Dragons are 14-6 Under, 11-1 Under versus the Top 8 and a combined 13-5 Under at their suburban home grounds since 2014. The Dragons have scored the opening points of the match in 15 of the last 18 matches against the Sharks. After spending 7 weeks at the top of the ladder, the Sharks now sit 2nd after suffering their 1st loss since Round 3. They still have a 6 point buffer to 3rd and will fight it out with Melbourne for the Minor Premiership. Despite going winless from their last 2 matches, the Sharks still have the 2nd best attacking record in the comp, while the have the 3rd best defense. The Sharks are 12-8 ATS and have covered in 6 of their last 7 on the road, while they have also covered in 4 of their last 5 as a road favourite. They are 11-9 Under in TMP’s with a 7-4 Under record in night games this season. Valentine Holmes has skipped clear as the Sharks leading try scorer with 16 and he has scored 3 tries in his 3 matches against the Dragons. The Sharks are just 1 point shy of scoring twice that of the Dragons and with the return of Michael Ennis the Sharks will be returning to the winners circle.

Preview

Dragons get key ins with Frizelle, Thompson and Dugan and play at Kogarah but get the Sharks for mine the wrong week off their loss to the Raiders. The Dragons have lost 5 in a row, have a nuffy for coach, more often than not can’t score more than two tries and are just plain ugly to watch. But with some key ins and at home they might keep this a little closer, somewhere around where the line has been placed.

The Sharks are 2nd, last weeks loss was due and should do them some good, I think there is an obvious class and execution gap between the two of them, I think the market has it about right. Sharks to win, lets just play through them to be doing that as a winning option in our all up.


Knights vs Panthers

+14.5 Knights

Stats

Cellar dwellers the Knights are at home for the 2nd week in a row where they play host to a Panthers side coming off their biggest win of the season. The Panthers have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Knights, but the Knights have won 4 of the last 5 clashes played at Hunter Stadium. It’s now more than 4 months since the Knights last tasted success and they look set to claim their 1st Wooden Spoon since 2005. They have the worst attack and the worst defence in the comp and half of their 18 losses this year have been by 20 points or more. The Knights are 8-12 ATS with a 5-4 cover record at home, while they have covered in 6 of their last 8 at home with a double digit advantage. They are 11-9 Over in TMP’s, while they are 14-8 Over in day games at home since 2014. Matches where Dave Munro has been a charge have also gone Over at a rate of 75% in 2016, with none of them totaling less than 40. A Knights try has been the 1st scoring play in the previous 5 clashes with the Panthers at Hunter Stadium. The Panthers have won 3 of their last 4 and will be looking to make a late charge with their remaining 4 matches all against sides currently sitting out of the Top 8. They have won 4 of their last 5 against the bottom 8 and 5 of their last 7 as a road favourite, but they have been average on the road in 2016, winning only 4 of 10. Penrith ranks 9th in attack and 11th in defence, giving them a 3 point differential that also ranks 9th. The Panthers are 10- 10 ATS and have covered only 2 of their last 5 as a road favourite. In TMP’s they are also split 10-10, while 5 of their last 6 against the bottom 8 have finished Overs, with all 6 totaling 40 or more. Only once in the last 9 meetings with the Knights have the Panthers led at half time and only twice this season from 10 away games have they led at the break.

Preview

I like the chances of the Panthers here. One of the key factors through these finals rounds prior to finals is sides who look like building form and confidence (Panthers) and those struggling, mentally all but stuffed and just waiting for these weeks to finish and get to Mad Monday and their end of season trip (Knights). The Panthers come off a very positive win last Monday night, and while their opponent was poor the shinning issue here is Cleary and some key players around him having very positive nights and building some key believe and confidence. Things look like they might well be starting to click with their combinations and belief and this last win in weeks ahead might well be marked as that break through turning point.

Young Nathan Cleary has been earmarked for some time as a kid who looked pretty special, well there is certainly no doubt now that he is, he has that rare combination of being tough, can defend for a small body, has time and reads the play exceptionally well – add to that he reeks natural talent, for a guy with such little top grade experience (8 games) to be standing up as he is is just outstanding. Cartwright is a edge backrower playing out of position to suit their current needs, but over the last two weeks he looks like he is now reading his play with and off Cleary much better and shinning on occasions with his ball play role. Peachy and Moylan then slot in around this, then add the list of talent around them all. I still remain critical of Griffin’s inability to coach what is required in the final 20 mtrs try line attack, but right now so much of their play is building from 30 and 40 mtrs out or they have skill well above their poor defending opponents it is not yet the issue.

The Knights have been tough, but reality is they have lost 14 straight and a falling away more quickly now in these back end weeks and conceding 30 quite easily most weeks. They have been put to the sword at a couple of recent away games and for mine now face a side on the up with a game style and attacking / skill focus that could easily and regularly open them up and punish them to advantage. I have been somewhat conservative in handicapping this game at 14.5, even with the Knights at home I could easily have been at 18 to 20.

I like the way this games shapes up for Panthers and their attack and skill strengths, keen they can win by a margin here.

Bet 3 units Panthers -11.5 $1.91 Pinnacle


Roosters vs Cowboys

+6.5 Roosters

Stats

The only match of Round 23 featuring 2 last start losers will see the Roosters at home against the Cowboys. It was 1 way traffic when these sides last met in Round 3, when the Cowboys scored 40 unanswered points, keeping the Roosters to nil for the 1st time in 2 years. The Roosters hold a distinct advantage both all-time and at Allianz Stadium, with the last meeting at the ground 1 of the most memorable Finals, with the Cowboys trailing 30-0 before mounting 1 of the great comebacks only to be beaten by a point. The Cowboys have now dropped out of the Top 4 for the 1st time since Round 4 and have lost 3 of their last 4 and 5 of their last 6 on the road. Despite dropping out of the Top 4, the Cowboys still rank as the 3 rd best attacking unit in the NRL, while their defence rates 2nd. They are 10-10 ATS but have failed to cover in 5 of their last 6 away games, while they are 3 & 3 when laying a start on the road. In TMP’s they are 12-8 Under with their last 5 all finishing that way, while their last 6 on the road have also gone Unders. The Cowboys have won 11 from 11 this year when going to half time with a lead, while the half time leader has won 10 of the last 11 clashes between the Roosters and Cowboys. The Roosters have lost 7 of their last 8 and 8 of 11 this season at Allianz Stadium, while they have lost 11 of 12 against the Top 8. They remain in 15th spot and have been there for 14 weeks with just 4 wins and look set to have their worst finish since 2009. They rank 14th in attack and 15th in defence and have conceded 20 points or more on 15 occasions. The Roosters are 7-13 ATS, which is the equal worst cover record in the comp and they have covered in only 3 of 7 at Allianz Stadium this year when getting a start. They are 14-6 Over in TMP’s, with 5 of their last 6 totaling 40 or more. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in 5 of their last 6, while in 9 of their last 10 matches, the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 8th minute. The Roosters have scored half of their 62 tries this season attacking to their left edge, but no side has conceded fewer tries than the Cowboys through their right edge in defence (12). A couple of key ins for the Roosters and key outs for the Cowboys, with Pearce and JWH back for the TriColours, while Granville and Hannant are out for North Queensland

Preview

 


Raiders vs Storm

+3.5 Raiders

Stats

The match of the Round closes out Round 23 when the 2 form teams of the competition go head to head in Canberra. Both sides are on a 6 game winning streak, the Raiders winning 9 of their last 10, while Melbourne has won 13 of their last 14. The Storm has won 26 of 36 all-time against the Raiders and they have also dominated at GIO Stadium, winning 12 of 18, with 12 of those wins coming from the last 14 meetings at the ground since 2003. Melbourne is now back at the top of the table with 17 wins off the back of the best defence in the NRL, conceding just 11.5 points a game. They are ranked 4th in attack with a 245 point differential that is also the best in the competition. The Storm is 11-9 ATS and has covered in 9 of their last 13 matches, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 as a road favourite when laying less than 6 points. In TMP’s they continue to be the Number 1 Unders side in the comp, producing a 15-5 result, while they have gone Unders in 23 of their past 31 away games. MNF is also prone to the Under, with a 14-7 result this result and a combined 28-17 result since 2015. For the 2nd week in a row the Raiders hold down 3rd spot and have spent 21 of 22 weeks in the Top 8. They are the Number 1 attacking side in the NRL, averaging 27.1 points a game, while that average increases to 31.3 PPG since Round 11. They rank 7th defensively, while their 152 point differential ranks 4th. Canberra is 13-7 ATS, with a 6-4 cover record at home, but have covered in only 5 of their last 12 at home as an underdog. The Raiders are the Number 1 Overs side in the NRL, producing a 15-5 result and they have gone Overs in 8 of their last 9. In MNF, both sides have average recent records, with Melbourne winning 6 of their last 13, while the Raiders have won 3 of their last 6 Monday fixtures. The home side has a 12-8-1 record in MNF and a 12-9 record ATS, with a 4-3 cover record as a home underdog. It’s the team with the best attack hosting the team with the best defence and shapes as 1 of, if not the match of the season.

Preview

Great contest but certainly a tricky game. I am working on Austin not playing, which is a key out and significantly weakens their attack. I also think the Raiders are somewhat like the Tigers into this round, come off a big game, big win for which they had a big lift and then run the risk of some let down into another big game. Also, with the Cowboys surprise loss the Raiders then have some breathing space for another week in the top 4, so less urgency and possibly some mental complacency. That “big” win last week also now looks somewhat questionable given the Sharks loss.

But I’m also not completely sold on the Storm at present, they could have should have been beaten last week by the Rabbits who have then knocked an easy 40 through the Warriors.

I think we are seeing some teams at the top of the table playing on some tired legs on the back of  origin and some likely heavy fitness build ups towards the finals run, more likely the Storm here.

The Raiders do have the game style and man power through the middle to trouble and or beat the Storm, but their discipline, handling and control against a good opponent in a real arm wrestle concerns me. The Storms defence has been outstanding this year, and I think that is the likely difference here.

Lets watch and learn what two top of table sides have to offer. Great clash, slight lean to Storm.


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

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