NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 7

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 7

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 7 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+4.5 Eagles vs Eels

-11.5 Cowboys vs Rabbits

-2.5 Titans vs Dragons

Even Bulldogs vs Warriors

-25.5 Broncos v Knights

-2.5 Raiders v Sharks

+4.5 Tigers vs Storm

+4.5 Roosters vs Panthers


NRL Round 7 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Eels H2H $1.80 Luxbet

Bet 2 units Cowboys H2H $1.30 x Broncos >6.5 $1.30  BB

Bet 2 units Storm H2H $1.67 William Hill

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Eels, Cowboys, Dragons, Bulldogs, Broncos, Raiders Sharks, Storm, Panthers


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Eagles vs Eel

+4.5 Eagles

Stats

Great way to kick off Round 7 when the Sea Eagles take on the Eels in 1 of only 2 matches this Round featuring 2 last start winners. The Eels have recorded 3 consecutive victories over the Sea Eagles and another win this week will be just the 2nd time in 50 years that they have won 4 in a row over their arch rivals. Both sides are coming off wins and both sides are on 5 day turnarounds, the Eels have won 4 from 7 and Manly 8 from 13 when they have had a short back up since 2013. The Sea Eagles do have the home ground advantage, where they have won 7 of the previous 9 clashes with the Eels, who are yet to be defeated this season as the away side. The Sea Eagles have failed to cover a line in the last 4 clashes with Parramatta and they have also failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 matches at Brookvale Oval. A Sea Eagles try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Eels at Brookvale Oval, but they have conceded the 1st try in their last 5 at home. Manly have a 5-1 Under TMP record from their past 6 at home, while the Eels are 5-1 Under after 6 Rounds and with 3 of the last 4 clashes finishing the same way, the total points going under 35.5 looks a likely outcome. In 9 of the 11 Thursday/Friday night games this season, 9 have gone Under with 8 totaling less than 35.5, while matches refereed by Ben Cummins have gone 5-1 Under and 5-0 at night.

Preview

If true to form then there does look a gap here in the Eels favour. While coming through some strong form games including Broncos, Cowboys and others they have also had a pretty soft run through the first 6 rounds with them yet to have to leave Sydney for any game. Their opponents have all but been bent over with this their 3rd x 5 day turn around of their last 4 games and a return leg from NZ with just the one light training session prior to play.

The Eagles have been plucky through the last few weeks but gee there has to be some question marks over the quality and depth of what they have been up against, an ordinary and complacent Warriors who had only beaten the bottom two teams on the table, Rabbits which after last week doesn’t read well, near loss to 16th placed Roosters and still without instrumental play maker Cherry-Evans. While Koroisau has done the job through the last two weeks he faces a very different task here against a well structured defence that will also play very physical. Brookvale has long been a fortress for this side but right now they have lost 6 of their last 10.

The Eels won very well last week but gee the Raiders were soft and ordinary, but none the less a good confidence building win and importantly Foran ran far more freely and had an excellent game. Against his old club, back on their home track I’n sure he will be primed for a big effort. The thing that continues to stand out with the Eels is the quality of their defence, and how well structure it is, 11 points against after 6 weeks through a pretty strong form line is a very good effort, it’s the sort of stuff that takes teams to the top 4.

I think there is a gap here, it may well be a tight game for some time as what points the Eagles have in them against a good defensive offering will be questionable, but I like the Eels here.

Bet 2 units Eels H2H  $1.80 Luxbet


Cowboys vs Rabbits

-11.5 Cowboys

Stats

The Cowboys have won 4 of the previous 5 clashes with the Rabbitohs, their only loss was in the most recent meeting, when the Rabbits secured their 1st win in Townsville in 7 years. The Rabbits have now lost 3 of their last 4 and have averaged less than 12 points a game during that time and they will be pleased to have Adam Reynolds back in the fold as he makes a welcome return after spending 5 weeks on the sideline. They are currently ranked 5th in attack and 8 th in defence and have lost 4 of their last 5 as a road dog. They have had Overs results in 11 of their last 14 away games and have covered a line in only 7 of 16 on the road since 2015. The Cowboys are undefeated at home, winning 3 from 3 and in their last 2 they have scored 76 points and conceded nil. In all 3 home games they have scored both the 1st and last try of the match and a Cowboys try has also been the 1st scoring play in 5 of the last 6 meetings with the Rabbitohs in Townsville. There have been 42 points or more scored in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Rabbits at 1300SMILES Stadium and 9 of the Cowboys last 13 matches at home have finished Overs. They have covered a line in their last 4 and in 4 of their last 5 at home. The Cowboys are ranked 1st in attack and 3rd in defence and no side has scored more or conceded fewer tries than the Cowboys.

Preview

Two sides at either end of the form spectrum at present. The Rabbits hurt us weekend with another very ordinary offering, certainly Reynolds late exclusion didn’t help but regardless their attitude, enthusiasm and offering was very poor against a busted team sitting at the bottom of the table. I have now noticed that there have been 3 recent games (Bulldogs, Eagles and Roosters) where Maguire has had no positive influence at half time, once one of his strengths as a coach. We have still only seen 6 games, and they desperately need Reynolds back but right now their form and attitude raises many questions.

Most seasons there becomes a team that starts to stand out as generally very consistent, are winners, have some quality and most of the right ingredients to go on and compete at the pointy end of the season, and are the right team more often than not to hitch your wagon to as a betting main stay. Last year it was the Broncos, the year prior the Rabbits, the year prior the Roosters, right now the Cowboys certainly fit the bill. They have won 4 of 6 but notably their two losses were by 4 points and then 1 point (which arguably they should have won); they showed nothing but class and quality to come back and win last week on the road, a very professional win. I have improved their rating on where they started the year, and it’s certainly much higher then where they finished the last year and although the history books tell us that there have been no repeat Premiers in the modern age right now this side is the benchmark and have nothing but improved. Confidence, belief, competition for places with good quality depth, some smart juniors pushing for places and a sharp coach are all good ingredients that could well see them be the first side to go back-to-back in some time.

The Cowboys right now are ranked 1st in attack and 3rd in defence, record at home speaks for itself while the Rabbits have only won 1 of their last 7 trips north that being a surprise upset win last season. With Reynolds inclusion and the quality of his kicking game and general game management the Rabbits should at least play with improved field position but gee I want to watch and see where their attitude is especially from the 30 minute mark onwards when it’s time to really roll your sleeves up. I’m happy to look to just play the Cowboys at the match line H2H to win, they come off a tough away leg last week and on paper the 12 point line looks about right.


Titans vs Dragons

-2.5 Titans

Stats

It’s the 3rd week in a row that the Dragons play away from home and it’s the final leg of their Qld road trip where they have conceded 62 points and are yet to register a point of their own after being held to nil by both the Cowboys and Broncos. They have registered twice as many wins as the Titans head to head, but the spoils have been shared equally in last 10 meetings with each side recording 5 wins. Recent meetings have been tight and low scoring affairs, with 4 of the last 5 clashes decided by 2 points or less, while 4 of the last 5 have finished Unders in TMP’s. A Dragons try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 5 clashes with the Titans, who have also conceded the 1st try in their last 5, while the Titans have scored the last try of the match in the previous 7 clashes. Only once from the last 10 encounters have the Titans led the Dragons at half time and they have also led at half time just once this season. The Titans have won 5 of their last 6 at home and have covered a line in 5 of 6 in 2016 (ranked 1st in covering the line), as well as in their last 6 at home and 12 of their last 17 at home long term, while they have had Unders results in 5 of their last 6 day time matches played at home. The Dragons are ranked 9th in defence and last in attack are still looking for their 1st away win with a current 0-4 record on the road. They have covered a line in only 1 of their last 5 and their TMP results are in heavy favour of the Unders, with a 13-4 Under record since 2015 and they are a perfect 6-0 Under record in 2016, with all of their matches totaling 36 points or less.

Preview

Looks a very important game for the Dragons here. They have been rubbish for weeks, in fact have conceded 62 points to zero through their last two games but have come through the top two teams on the table in consecutive weeks. In my opinion there’s a lot of rubbish being written and said about why they are losing and much of it focused at key players, for mine the real focus should be on their coach. It’s his playbook that they are playing to, his patterns of play, his sterile structures, and he has had two and half years digging this hole. Of the 16 coaches in this comp each year we always have a few innovators, leaders, guys with a fair idea of what is required, then we have many sheep who tread water season after season copying what they think is current and in vogue and hoping a mid table position for another season is enough to keep them in the job. McGreggor has shown he has little idea about attack, how to create second phase play, set up attacking options with an intent to open a hole, create defensive errors or confusion, and overlap or a man in behind the line. The Dragons are in this mess right now due to where they have been led.

But. This game looks like a mini grand final for them. Off two thin wins and 4 defeats with the last two being sound thrashings they have had an 8 day turn around and spent much of the week back their home training center with significant focus on them. Right now they need to dig deep and somehow find or manufacture a win.

The Titans have been very honest, and it they get to play a little bit of footy here then they will be difficult to beat, especially if they can jump the scoreboard. Bird is a major out, while Taylor has been carrying a leg injury, key issues with two of their key players. If given a little latitude they can open things up and right now there is absolutely no expectation on them.

Trick game. Going with the Dragons desperation, as it’s hard to justify a great deal about their play. Marshall may well be stung into some action with his return, just playing direct would be a good start. There are many tight tricky games this round, this is certainly one of them and happy to just watch.


Bulldogs vs Warriors

Even Bulldogs

Wellington NZ

Stats

The Bulldogs travel to Wellington for a home game when they take on the Warriors at Westpac Stadium in game 2 of Super Saturday. The Dogs have made a habit of making a home away from home and in recent seasons it’s proved to be a fruitful exercise as they have won their last 3 matches played at a neutral venue. They also have a very good record at Westpac Stadium against the Warriors, who are yet to defeat them at the ground. In fact, the Warriors have only ever recorded 1 victory from 8 starts at the venue dating back to 2001. The Bulldogs are coming off a solid performance against the Storm in what was clearly their best effort of the season. They are on a short 5 day preparation but that hasn’t been a problem for them in recent seasons as they have won 4 of their last 5 off the 5 day turn around. They have won the last 5 meetings with the Warriors and 4 of those 5 matches have been played in New Zealand. A winning margin of 1-12 points has been the result in the last 4 clashes and in all 4 meetings, the TMP’s finished Unders. The Dogs currently sit 5th on the ladder and are ranked 9th in attack and 4th in defence, with only the Cowboys and Eels conceding fewer tries. Since 2014 the Dogs are 14-9 ATS when getting a start and they have a 4-2 covering record off a 5 day break over the same period. They are yet again proving to be an Unders side in 2016, producing a 5-1 result after 6 Rounds and only once since 2011 have they finished a season in favour of the Overs. What to make of the Warriors, after 2 wins they again crumbled under the weight of expectation and as indicated last week, the form line from those 2 wins was thin. They have lost 6 of their last 7 as an away side but they get their chance here, having to deal with very little travel in the last month. They have scored the 1st try in the last 4 clashes with the Bulldogs but only once this season have they been able to open the scoring. They are 2-4 ATS this season and have 5-6 covering record since 2014 when giving up a start, they have had overs result in 4 of 6 with only 2 of their matches finishing under 40.

Preview

The Bulldogs actually have a significantly better record in Wellington than the Warriors having won 3 plus a draw from their 4 games here, while the Warriors have only won 1 of their 8 games at the ground. The Bulldogs likely to lose Tolman and have a short 5 day turn around out of an away game in Melbourne but they do have a good record with such winning 4 of their last 5 on 5 day turn arounds much to the professionalism that is the Bulldogs approach under Hasler.

Aside from the Eels game the Bulldogs defence season to date has been very good and last Monday’s effort and win yet another example. They scramble very well, have a tight sound line  and give you very little, and it takes you a long way in most games. Although winning they still have issues with their attack, their first two tries coming with some luck via kick plays. What also works in the Bulldogs favour in this game scenario is their general discipline, they don’t give you a lot and are happy to wind the game into a bit of an arm wrestle which is likely to frustrate the Warriors.

Got the Warriors right last week, off two wins, favs, back home, complacency and shite attitude sets in and they never in the hunt and leak 34 points to a side who can’t but a try. The culture and approach of this playing group is pathetic and as I have said before you wouldn’t trust them to help you cross the road. Lolohea who is a huge talent moves to 6, but has some defensive issues, I’d play Leuluai at 6 and move Lolohea to centre but I think half the team selections are done by ballot with this mob. The thing about the Warriors that will keep a tired Bulldogs in this game and most likely give them the leg up to victory is that they make so many basic errors they just invite defeat.

I’m with the Bulldogs but them have numerous issues to overcome to leave this alone for any betting interest.


Broncos v Knights

-25.5 Broncos

Stats

The 2nd match of the Round featuring 2 last start winners sees the Knights on the road for the 5th time in 7 matches. Since 2011, the Broncos have dominated Newcastle, with the Knights registering just 1 win during that time. The Broncos last 7 wins over the Knights have all been by a margin of 13+ and this has also been the result in 3 of Brisbane’s 5 wins this season. A Brisbane try has been the 1st scoring play in 9 of the last 10 clashes with the Knights, while the Broncos remain the only side to have opened the scoring in all 6 Rounds in 2016 (4 tries & 2 Penalty Goals). Brisbane has led at half time in 9 of the previous 10 meetings with Newcastle and they remain the only side yet to trail at the break in this season. They are ranked 4th in attack and 2nd in defence which has them sitting on top of the table with 5 wins. They have won 14 of their last 16 at Suncorp Stadium and covered the line in 12 of those, while they have also won 16 of their last 18 at home when starting as a favourite and they start this match as the shortest price favourite of the season. Milford and Oates have each been the FTS in the last 2 clashes with the Knights and both have already bagged doubles as FTS in 2016. The Knights registered their 1st win last week but it’s hard to see them going back to back, they have lost their previous 4 away games and have covered a line in only 5 of 16 since 2015 as an away side, they have also failed to cover in the previous 4 clashes with the Broncos. They have conceded the 1st try in 5 of their 6 matches and after 6 Rounds no side has conceded more tries than the Knights.

Preview

The Broncos win, the question is how you might chose to play this. And while I expect they can cover a line of 18 I just don’t want to be playing with such risk this early in the season. I think the best way through the game is as suggested with more conservative plays through the tri bet or 13 plus options.


Raiders v Sharks

-2.5 Raiders

Stats

Home ground advantage has meant little when these sides have met in recent seasons with the away side winning 6 of the last 8 clashes. There has been little between these sides since 2011, with both sides recording 5 wins and only once from the last 10 encounters has the side leading at half time been run down. There have also been plenty of points on offer in recent meetings, with 8 of the last 9 topping 40 or more points. The Raiders are 2-1 at home, while the Sharks are 1-2 away. Canberra has a 4-2 Over – Under record, while the Sharks are the opposite, with a 4-2 Under – Over record. The Raiders have won only 1 of their last 4 and have conceded 20 or more points in 5 of 6 at an average of 22. They are coming off their biggest loss of the season after conceding 36 points against the Eels and they have lost 8 of their last 10 the week after conceding more than 30 points. They have a 4-7 ATS record since 2015 when giving up a start at home and they have won only 4 of their last 11 as a home favourite. The Sharks have won 3 in a row to and sit in 4th position, while they are ranked 7th in both attack and defence. They have a 12-14 ATS record since 2014 as a road dog and both of their losses this season have been as the away underdog. A Sharks try has been the 1 st scoring play in 9 of the last 11 clashes with the Raiders.

Preview

With the late confirmation yesterday afternoon that Austin is now out and there remains doubt over Vaughan & Hodgson (or they play with injury) on top of already missing Soliola and Lima I am now tipping the Sharks but will stay out of the game.

Raiders put their first poor effort in last week when thumped by the Eels, and the Raiders certainly rolled over, never in the contest and conceding very soft yardage and points. They’d come off a major away win and clearly with hindsight a major build up and then crashed with the obvious let down. I expect they will re group and be  better here back at home but certainly with these key outs and or injury issues lets just watch and see what’s on offer.

The Sharks are ticking over ok, their record in Canberra and against the Raiders is ok and while missing Lewis they will have Maloney back and his kicking game will be integral to how they play this. With Austin out I think this now looks an even handicap, but with the Sharks off 3 wins but no stand out form (last two vs Titans, Tigers) while conceding plenty of soft points) this is not a game I want to play with.


Tigers vs Storm

+4.5 Tigers

Stats

The Tigers have won 5 of their last 7 games at Leichardt Oval against the Storm, but they come into this match as an outsider after 4 straight losses. Their recent record at Leichardt is also poor, with just 4 wins from their last 10 at the ground. Points have been hard to come by for both sides with a TMP average of 30 from the last 10 meetings, with 8 of the last 10 clashes finishing Unders and this has also been the result in 18 of the Storm’s past 22 matches played away from AAMI Park. Both sides have had 1-12 margin outcomes in their last 4 matches but the previous 5 clashes have been decided by a margin of 13+ and that has also been the margin result in the Tigers last 9 matches at Leichardt Oval. The Tigers are 10-7 ATS as a home underdog since 2014, while overall, the home underdog has a 48-18 covering record in the 1st 8 Rounds since 2014. Melbourne has a 6-7 ATS record since 2014 as a road favourite and they have covered in only 1 of 5 this season when giving up a start. A Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in the previous 6 clashes with the Tigers played at Leichardt Oval.

Preview

The Tigers certainly fit the bill of early season desperation and bounce back here off the back of 4 losses and a return to what should be a traditional home ground of advantage in Leichhardt (but surprisingly they have only won 4 of their last 10 here). They do have a major out in Woods who provided much of their go forward and middle work rate and given stand out depth is not a major positive for this list the loss of any such player certainly hurts their chances. They come out of a terrible form game and loss last week to the 15th placed side, a game riddled with 22 errors and winning form from the Knights unlikely to look to have much depth in Brisbane on Saturday night.

The Tigers problem clearly is that they play the same way all game long and have no playbook guidance toward getting into a game, building pressure, capatilising on opportunity and working the game over all the way through to the 80th minute mark. As stated previously I have little time for the coach and I can’t believe that he was prepared to change his approach during the off season, then spend months coaching a revised plan, and is now making noises that he wants to tighten things up and revert more to his past approach. For fark sake who is in charge here? Set a plan, ensure it is sound, and coach it through the good and the bad. Taylor’s problem is he wants to be liked and keep his job, and that gets in the way of sound coaching.

The Storm’s attack has lacked fluency and combination, they should have scored at least 3 more tries last Monday night yet right now they no longer have that final punch to do so. Chalmers is a key out, and they are already short on quality outside backs, so they again will have some major reshuffles to do.

I am hearing that the Tigers have a number of key injury issues which may lead to further late outs, in addition to Woods which would explain the further move on the line. On a likely wet track the kicking game and game management of the Storm should be the difference, I want to just stick with them to win and leave any line out of the equation.

Bet 2 units Storm H2H $1.67 William Hill


Roosters vs Panthers

+4.5 Roosters

Stats

The Roosters have won 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Panthers and 6 of the previous 8 encounters played at Allianz Stadium. The Panthers are coming of yet another single figure loss, while the Roosters broke their duck when they defeated the Rabbits in FNF. The Roosters still have plenty of work to do as they remain in last place, they are ranked 14th in attack and 15th in defence. They are yet to register a home win and are 2-4 ATS. In TMP’s they are 5-1 in favour of the Overs, with only 1 of their matches totaling less than the mark of 36.5 set for this match. Shaun Kenny-Dowall has scored 4 tries in his last 3 matches against the Panthers and he has been the 1st try scorer of the match in the last 2 meetings. The Panthers have had 1-12 margin results in all 6 of their matches, with their last 5 decided by 5 points or less. Despite winning only 2 of their 6 matches, the Panthers have covered a line in 4 of 6, while they have a 3-3 record since 2014 when covering as a road favourite. They have had Unders results in 24 of their last 34 night games, while the under has hit in the last 4 games of MNF. In MNF, the Roosters have won 8 of their last 9, while the Panthers have lost 4 of their last 5 Monday fixtures.

Preview

The Panthers come out of a strong form game last week against the Cowboys where they offered their best yet, and had it been against anyone else then they’d have most likely won. Moylan has been an excellent influence since his return, and notably lifted everyone’s confidence and combinations. That alone should be the right form to win this.

The trick is that the Panthers have a very poor recent record vs the Roosters (lost 5 of last 6), and an equally poor record when against them at SFS (lost 6 of last 8). These sorts of hoodoo’s more often than not seem to come into play in games such as this.

The Roosters are still limping along and after the Cowboys thumping of the Rabbits their win last week still doesn’t read strongly, now does much of the form prior to it. I would also not be surprised that with the return of key players today week for the Anzac Day clash that they are likely to have their heads more into next week than this.

I expect the Panthers win, if the game was anywhere else than the SFS I would probably entertain a play as I think that recent form line is just too strong but given the recent history between these two and that I have the handicap marked similar to the market I’m happy to pass.


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 7

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 6

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 6

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 6 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-14.5 Broncos vs Dragons

-10.5 Rabbits vs Roosters

-4.5 Eels vs Raiders

+6.0 Warriors vs Eagles

+4.5 Panthers vs Cowboys

-10.5 Sharks vs Titans

-1.5 Knights vs Tigers

-5.5 Storm vs Bulldogs


NRL Round 6 Recommended Bet List

Bet 3 units Rabbits -6.0  $1.90 Centrebet  BB

Bet 1 units Rabbits-Roosters Over 39.5  $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Eagles +8.5  $1.91 Unibet

Bet 2 units Warriors-Eagles Under 42.5  $1.85 Unibet

Bet 2 units Knights-Tigers Over 44.5  $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Storm-Bulldogs Over 35.5  $1.90 Pinnacle / Sportsbet / Topsport

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Rabbits, Raiders, Eagles, Cowboys, Sharks, Knights, Storm


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

-Broncos vs Dragons

-14.5 Broncos

Stats

History shows that the Broncos have proved a very difficult proposition for the Dragons when meeting at Suncorp Stadium, with Brisbane winning the previous 8 clashes at the ground dating back to 2009. Brisbane has also won 9 of the last 10 meetings across all venues, while a Broncos try has been the 1st scoring play in 9 of the last 10 clashes. There have been plenty of points on offer in recent meetings, with 5 of the last 7 clashes topping 48 points or more, while 10 of the Broncos last 16 matches at home have finished Overs in TMP’s. The Dragons are on leg 2 of their Qld road trip, are on a short 5 day turn around and they have lost 6 straight away from home, while no side has scored fewer points than them and in their last 4 matches and they have also failed to score a try in 6 of the 8 halves. The Dragons have covered in only 3 of their last 11 on the road and have had Unders results in 11 of their last 14 played away from home, while for the Broncos, they have won 13 of their last 15 at Suncorp Stadium and have covered a line in 20 of their last 28 at the venue. The Dragons are coming off a 36-0 thumping courtesy of the Cowboys and they have lost 8 of their last 10 following a match where they have conceded 30 or more points.

Preview

 


Rabbits vs Roosters

-10.5 Rabbits

Stats

Rabbitohs have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Roosters, as well as winning the last 3 clashes played at ANZ Stadium. They have won 8 of their last 12 at ANZ Stadium but have covered a line in only 4 of those 12. After scoring 90 points in their opening 2 games, the points have dried up in recent weeks as they have averaged less than 12 points a game from their last 3 and in 2 of their last 3 they have failed to score a 2nd half point. They have conceded the last try of the match in their last 4 but have scored the opening try in 4 of 5. They have a 3-2 TMP Over-Under record in 2016, while their record under lights is 13-7 Under since 2014. In line betting, they have covered 3 of 4 when giving up a start and they have also covered the line in their last 3 matches against the Roosters when starting as the favourite. The Roosters are staring at 6 consecutive losses for the 1st time since 2009, in that year they went on to win the spoon. They are ranked 13th in attack, 15th in defence and have conceded twice as many tries as they have scored, while no side has conceded more tries than the Roosters. They are the only side to have had Overs results in all 5 matches in 2016 and are 8-0 in favour of the Overs since last year’s Finals campaign. Only once this season have they covered a line, while it’s now 6 straight matches involving the Roosters where the 1st try has been scored by the 7th minute. Daniel Tupou has been the Roosters 1st try scorer in their past 3 matches played at ANZ Stadium.

Preview

I like the Rabbits here for a number of reasons, but certainly an additional key factor is if Adam Reynolds plays. My information through the last three days from someone very close to the camp that he has trained with the team three times this week with a view to playing, the final session the captains run yesterday. There may still be some doubt pending how he has pulled up today as the media continue to speculate but I am yet to hear anything different. If he does play it is a massive in as he has one of the best tactical and field position kicking games in the competition, let alone his general direction and play-making skills. Even with him not play I still have the handicap marked at least 10 points.

The Rabbits were certainly scratchy last week, they should have beaten the Eagles far more comfortably and clearly Maguire was into them at half time and I’d suggest since about their attitude. Playing their arch rivals the Roosters this week is probably good timing and might just be the tonic of focus required. I see some nice advantage physically through the middle which they should capatilise on.

The Roosters have now lost their opening 5 games and come off a disappointing loss to the Warriors where again they leaked 30 something points, and now after just 5 games are averaging a shocking 32 points against each week. What did catch my eye last week was them physically being worked over by the Warriors, time and again, and it taking some toll. They are loose, short on quality, have a thin bench and come off a tough physical game and travel into back to back away games at a ground their opponent plays very well at, I certainly want to risk them here.

This game also looks to have lots of points potential. Clearly the Roosters are leaking points, and their opening 5 games to date have all gone over 40 or more, while 3 of the Rabbits 5 to date have done similar. These two also match up with a history of high scoring games with 4 of their last 5 all also going over.

Bet 3 units Rabbits -6.0  $1.90 Centrebet  BB

Bet 1 units Rabbits-Roosters Over 39.5  $1.90 Sportsbet


Eels vs Raiders

-4.5 Eels

Stats

Raiders recent record over the Eels is a healthy one, winning 6 of the previous 7 clashes, including their last 2 visits to Pirtek Stadium. They will need to overcome a difficult preparation as they are on a short 5 day turn around and have lost 3 of their last 4 when backing up from MNF, as well as being on the road for the 2nd week in a row and only once in 11 years have they won back to back away games in consecutive weeks. The Raiders have now covered a line in 8 of their last 12 away games, while they have gone 10-4 Over as an away side since 2015. They have scored the 1st try in 4 of their 5 matches this season and also in 9 of the last 10 clashes with the Eels. The Eels are at home for the 2nd straight week, but it’s proved to be of little benefit in recent times as they have lost 8 of their last 10 at Pirtek Stadium and they have also failed to cover a line in 8 of those 10. All 5 of their matches have finished Unders in TMP’s, while the 1st try of the match hasn’t been scored until after the 12th minute in all 5 of their matches. They are ranked 2nd in defence, but sit 2nd last in attack with only the Dragons scoring fewer tries than the Eels. Consider Papalli, Croker and Edrick Lee in try scorer calculations as they have scored 9 of the Raiders 19 tries in 2015 while 7 of the Raiders last 11 tries against the Eels have been scored attacking to their left edge.

Preview


Warriors vs Eagles

+6.0 Warriors

Stats

Sea Eagles have pretty much owned the Warriors since 2010, winning 9 of the 10 meetings and they have also won 5 of the last 6 clashes played in New Zealand. A winning margin of 1-12 points has been the result in 5 of the previous 6 meetings in New Zealand, while in 7 of the last 10 clashes, the TMP’s have finished Unders. The Sea Eagles come into this match with a 2-3 record to be sitting in 13th spot and they are the only remaining side yet to lead a game at half time, averaging just 6 1st half points. They have won only 3 of their last 10 as a road dog and have a 5-9 ATS record as an away side since 2015. They have a 2-3 Over/Under record after 5 Rounds with both of their away games finishing Overs. After 11 straight losses, the Warriors are now aiming for 3 consecutive wins. They have gained some confidence after scoring 13 of their 22 tries in their last 2 matches and while a win is a win, the form line is soft with both wins coming against sides ranked 15th and 16th. They have won 12 of their last 15 as a home favourite and have covered a line in 8 of their last 12 at home when giving up more than a converted try. Only once in the previous 8 clashes has the 1st try of the match been scored prior to the 8th minute and both sides have been slow out of the blocks this season, with both sides conceding the 1st try in 4 of their 5 matches.

Preview

A key factor here is the pending weather with rain happening Friday and forecast through the weekend (bring it on hughie!!).

The Warriors have to be some risk here around a number of issues. Firstly they are shooting for 3 wins straight, a rare recent occurrence for them and they’d return here / home feeling a little more relaxed about themselves. off the back of those wins, and their opponents questionable recent form they are now very warm favs for this contest, something they are also not very good at caring. A wet track will certainly disadvantage them and they face an opponent who has held a commanding recent record over them winning 9 of the last 10.

The Eagles now have the benefit of a decent break and freshen up into this away game and while losing their last game I’m sure they have taken some confidence out of it with them hanging tough together all game and nearly causing a major late upset. They get some key ins here and will also have the significant benefit of some decent training sessions to build some improved attack and ball play options.

While the Warriors have won their last two they have done so against the bottom two teams on the table right now, hardly a strong form reference. They also continue to leak points. With wet conditions, and night game and likely stifled attack and points then the line start is certainly a major advantage to the Eagles (and I think they can win straight up) let alone the under total socre also a nice play.

Bet 2 units Eagles +8.5  $1.91 Unibet

Bet 2 units Warriors-Eagles Under 42.5  $1.85 Unibet


Panthers vs Cowboys

+4.5 Panthers

Stats

The only match of the Round featuring 2 last start winners closes out Super Saturday when the Cowboys travel to Pepper Stadium. The Cowboys have won 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Panthers, including 2 of their last 3 visits to Pepper Stadium where they recorded comprehensive wins with margins of 20 or more. The Cowboys have scored both the 1 st try of the 2nd half and the last try of the match in the previous 6 clashes with the Panthers and in 6 of the last 7 meetings the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 8th minute. The Cowboys are 1 of 5 sides yet to open their account on the road this season after losing their previous 2 away games, while they are 1-1 ATS away from home and are 11-6 covering on the road since 2015. They have had Overs results in 9 of their last 15 away games under lights, while there have been 40 or more points scored in 9 of the previous 10 meetings with the Panthers. No side has scored more 2nd half points than the Cowboys who are the only remaining side yet to lose a 2nd half. The panthers have won 2 of their last 3 and might count themselves unlucky that they haven’t won 4 of their last 5. All 5 of their matches have been decided by a margin of 1-12 and their last 4 have been decided by 2 points or less. They have covered a line in their last 4 but have covered only 6 of their last 11 at home when getting a start. In 6 of their last 8 at Pepper Stadium the TMP’s have finished Unders, while they have scored the 1st try of the match in 5 of their last 7 at home. This will be the Panthers last game at home for 5 weeks, with their next 2 home games played at alternative venues.

Preview


Sharks vs Titans

-10.5 Sharks

Stats

There has been very little between these sides since the Titans entered the comp in 2007, with the Sharks currently holding a 1 game advantage head to head. Recent meetings have been closely fought contests, with 5 of the previous 6 clashes decided by 6 points or less, while home ground advantage has meant little with the away side winning 5 of the last 7 encounters. Both sides have won 2 of their last 3 and all 3 of their respective matches were decided by a margin of 1-12. The Sharks have won 3 of their last 4 at home and have covered a line in 4 of 5 and also in 9 of their last 12 at Shark Park. 9 of their last 11 at Shark Park have finished Unders in TMP’s but they are 9-2 Over in day matches at home. They have scored the 1st points in 7 of their last 10 against the Titans, while in 6 of the Sharks past 14 matches played at Shark Park, they have opened the scoring with a Penalty Goal. The Titans have lost 7 of their last 8 on the road and have trailed at half time in 7 of them as well as trailing at the break in their last 4 straight. They have covered a line in 4 of 5 this season and have had Overs results in 6 of their last 8 away games. The Sharks have scored more than half of their tries attacking to their right edge, which is where the Titans have conceded 11 of their 19 tries this season, so consider Lewis, Bird and Holmes in FTS calculations. Holmes has also been the Sharks 1st try scorer in the last 2 clashes with the Titans.

Preview

As a straight out option I expect the Sharks at home win but I found this a tricky game to review and am happy to stay out. The Sharks should have an advantage here at home and have won their last two (Tigers, Storm) but I’m not so sure how strong that form is, and last week they got involved in a points shoot out (60 point game) that they could well have lost but for the Tigers clocking off on a number of occasions – and it’s quite possible something similar happens here with the Titans likely to want to open this game up.

Titans have been ok, but they have a poor recent record when travelling and in all reality were lucky to escape with an 8 point defeat last week after the Broncos led by 18 well into the second half.

I expect the Sharks can win but the line looks right either way, as does the total (which I made bang on 44), and I can’t see an angle or advantage in a play here.


Knights vs Tigers

-1.5 Knights

Stats

Two of the pre-season favourites for the wooden spoon clash in what shapes as the poorest match of the Round. The Knights have won 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Tigers, which includes 3 of the previous 4 encounters played at Hunter Stadium. The Knights are still looking for their 1st win, while the Tigers have lost 3 straight after winning their opening 2 matches. It’s only the 2nd home game of the season for the Knights after spending 4 of the past 5 weeks on the road. They have won only 2 of their last 11 at home but are 11-0 ATS when starting as a home underdog since 2014. They are currently ranked 14th in attack and 16th in defence, conceding an average of 32 points a game. In TMP’s they are 4-1 Over and 11-4 Over in day matches at home since 2014. The Tigers have lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road and have covered a line in only 4 of their last 18 away from home. They have conceded the 1st try of the 2nd half in all 5 matches in 2015 (only side to do so) and only the Knights have conceded more 2nd half points than the Tigers. A Tigers try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of the previous 10 clashes with the Knights and in 9 of their last 10 away games, the 1st try has been scored by the 7th minute (5 for and 5 against). Only once in the previous 9 clashes with the Knights have the Tigers led at half time and only once from their last 8 away games have they led at the break. Since 2014, the road favourite has a 16-40 ATS record in the opening 6 weeks, with the record, going with the Knights with the start.

Preview

Looks another points shoot out here, and afternoon game with two sides who are happy to throw the ball about and are not noted defenders. The Knights are leaking 32 points a week at present and come against a side that when they click can put on some outstanding attack, the Tigers are leaking 24 a week and have now at two of their last 3 outings let through 30 or more points. This certainly looks an attack feast.

The Knights should well have won last week in Melbourne, a fine effort of a tough away gig, I’d suggest they will take some confidence out of that and in returning home have some advantage as their best footy is played here. They also hold a nice H2H recent record winning 4 of the last 5 times they have played. The Tigers away road record outside of Sydney is not good and they were dusted up when warm favs only weeks ago when travelling outside of Sydney to the Titans so again a significant risk. I also just don’t have confidence in them being able to manage games all the way through 80 minutes, they can put on 15 or 20 minute bursts like no other but then quickly clock off and leak points quickly like no other.

I went with the Knights being back at home but nothing would surprise here. As suggested it does look a points shoot out and that’s the way I want to play the game.

Bet 2 units Knights-Tigers Over 44.5  $1.90 Sportsbet


Storm vs Bulldogs

-5.5 Storm

Stats

Dogs travel to Melbourne to close out Round 6 in what has the potential to be 1 of the matches of the Round. History shows its 3 years since Melbourne last defeated the Bulldogs, with the Dogs recording 5 consecutive wins over the Storm, 3 of which they were the away side. 4 of the Dogs 5 wins have been by 13+ with an average winning margin of 26 points and they have scored almost twice as many points as the Storm from the last 10 clashes. The Dogs have scored the last try of the match in 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Storm and they are the only remaining side to have scored the last try in all 5 Rounds of this season. The Storm is unbeaten at AAMI Park this season, winning 3 from 3, but the 3 wins were against sides currently ranked in the bottom 8. Their only match against a current Top 8 opponent resulted in a loss to the Sharks. Melbourne is 9-7 ATS at home since 2015 and 6-6 at home in night games, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 7 games of MNF. They are ranked 10th in attack and in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Dogs they have scored 4 points or less. Both sides have a good record in MNF, with the Storm losing just 2 of their last 10 Monday matches played at AAMI Park, while the Dogs have won 6 of their last 8. In 4 of the 5 games of MNF in 2015, the TMP’s have finished Unders (long term it’s 32-22 Under) and this has also been the result in 13 of the Bulldogs last 17 night games, while Melbourne’s night games are also in favour of the Unders, producing a 17-7 Under record at night since 2015.

Preview

Two teams searching for some consistent form, but very typical of these early rounds of the competition. The Storm have the advantage of a 9 day back up and back to back home prep, the Bulldogs get 7 days and into an away leg.

The Storm have only dropped the one game but haven’t been in stand out form, they were close to a loss last week but the Knights form probably reads a bit stronger than many think. They are certainly advantaged at home and always get the rub of the green and advantage here (again shown last week). Up against a more high profile opponent and into a prime time game I’m expecting more of them here, as I’m sure Bellamy is. The Bulldogs are hard to access, poor last Monday in a game set up for them with their return to Belmore, they were jumped early and never really in the game, their attack again stop start and lacking cohesion in the halves. They have a good record over the Storm, but right now are hard to read.

I favour the Storm being at home, and while this game looks a tight offering I think the markets have over reacted and have the total points position way low. The forecast is for very light showers or drizzle should they happen and just a few mm’s off the back of a dry weekend, yet we now have a total set at 35.5 (so under or over 34) which is significantly low, I think too low. I am playing over 34.

Bet 2 units Storm-Bulldogs Over 35.5  $1.90 Pinnacle / Sportsbet / Topsport


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 6

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 5

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 5

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 5 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+2.0 Eagles vs Rabbits

+17.5 Titans vs Broncos

-17.5 Storm vs Knights

+3.4 Tigers vs Sharks

-13.5 Cowboys vs  Dragons

+2.0 Roosters vs Warriors

-7.5 Eels vs Panthers

-11.5 Bulldogs vs Raiders


NRL Round 5 Recommended Bet List

Bet 3 units Broncos -12.5  $1.91 Sportsbet  BB

Bet 2 units Storm-Knights Over 42.5  $1.90 Luxbet

Bet 2 units Cowboys-Dragons Under 38.5  $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Roosters-Warriors Over 42.0  $1.93 Tabcorp

Bet 1 unit Bulldogs -6.5  $1.90 Ubet or Crownbet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Rabbits, Broncos, Storm, Tigers, Cowboys, Warriors, Eels, Bulldogs


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Eagles vs Rabbits

+2.0 Eagles

Stats

Rabbitohs have won 3 of the previous 4 clashes with the Sea Eagles, but they have only recorded 4 wins in 23 years when travelling to Brookvale Oval. They are off the back of a 30 point loss after conceding 40+ points for only the 5th time over the last 5 seasons. They do get Sam Burgess back who will no doubt restore some confidence as they have looked lost without him. The Sea Eagles are aiming for 3 consecutive wins but they are on a short turn around as well playing their 3rd match in 10 days and are without Cherry-Evans. 7 of the last 9 clashes have produced Unders results in TMP’s, while a Rabbitohs Penalty Goal has been the 1st scoring play in 5 of the last 8 encounters at Brookvale Oval. The Sea Eagles have covered the line in only 1 of their last 4 at Brookvale Oval, while 4 of their last 5 matches at the ground have finished Unders in TMP’s. The Rabbits have covered a line in only 3 of their last 10 on the road when giving up a start and have a TMP record of 10-3 Under from their previous 13 matches away from home. Consider Alex Johnston in try scorer calculations as he is 1 of only 3 remaining players in the NRL to have scored a try in each game they have played in 2015 (Hopoate for the Bulldogs and & Hiku for the Panthers are the other 2).

Preview

Eagles well advantaged back at Brookvale where they have won 8 of the last 10 H2H against the Rabbits but they look like they are going top need every ounce of that here. They face their 3rd game in 10 days on the back of two 5 day turn arounds but worse still have some serious injury outs and key positional changes, with Cherry-Evans, Buhrer and Symonds damaged last week and now added to their long injury list. There are also whispers about of doubt over Walker and Matai being in doubt (and the market moves appear to reflect this), so who knows what team list and key positions they end up running out. Add to this a lucky escape last week with a late win over a side yet to open their account..

The Rabbits get Sam and Tom Burgess back, Sam clearly a huge influence, his out last week a massive mental blow to their confidence as they were humbled through the first half by the Bulldogs with a very meek offering. It’s hard to consider that a side that had comfortably rattled up big wins in their opening two rounds on the back on one major out would falter to such a degree, but Sam has a significant influence on the persona of this team. The other key missing ingredient is the quality kicking game of Reynolds, a major miss.

On paper given all of this, in particular all that the Eagles are up against then the Rabbits should win, but there remains a heap of questions over the game and I’m happy to just watch. There can’t be a lot to like about a side that leaked 40 odd last week and rolled over so quickly, now go to a ground where they have a very poor long term record and yet now concede the start – that’s how crazy all of the issues over this game are. I’m not interested in backing up into that with out seeing the Rabbits go around. The market line has kept moving against the Eagles all week which suggests that they either have further injury issues or that Reynolds may be a late inclusion for the Rabbits. If I was to lean to anything it would be Under on the total.


Titans vs Broncos

+17.5 Titans

Stats

Its back to back Queensland derbies for the Broncos when they take on the Titans after last week’s GP thriller over the Cowboys. The Broncos start as short priced favourites and it’s their shortest price since they last met the Titans in Round 20 last year. Brisbane has won 11 of the last 13 clashes with the Titans, including 5 of the last 7 meetings at Robina Stadium. A margin of 13+ has been the result in 6 of the Broncos last 7 wins over the Titans with an average winning margin of just over 20 points. The Titans have conceded the 1st try in their last 3 matches and a Broncos try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 clashes. The Broncos have also scored the last try in 9 of the last 11 meetings, while the 1st try of the match has not been scored until after the 7 th minute in 7 of the last 8 encounters. The Titans have trailed at half time in their last 3 matches, while the Broncos are 1 of 2 sides that are yet to trail at half time (Storm is the other) and no side has scored more 1st half points than the Broncos, while no side has scored more 2nd half points than the Titans. The Broncos have covered a line in their last 4 matches when giving up a double digit start and they have also covered in their last 3 clashes with the Titans who have covered in their last 5 matches at home. This shapes as 1 of the better matches of the Round and is the only game featuring 2 last start winners.

Preview

Titans return off an away travel leg to a major local derby but are picking up key injuries for a squad with questionable depth. They now lose another key half in Tyrone Roberts but have had Ryan James cleared to play (key in). The Titans have been plucky through their last two (Raiders and Tigers) but that formline has questions over it and this should be a different level of contest. Also, in each of their last 3 games they have been done by a margin and realistically could/should have been rolled on each occasion yet then turned the last two games into late wins, more I think at this stage to do with the opponents than quality footy. I suspect under sustained pressure they can leak points here.

The Broncos come through that outstanding contest last Friday night, have a full 7 day at home turn around with just a bus trip down the road for this away game and come through an exceptionally strong form line. Hunt has still been poor, and some of his kicking and last play options last week were again terrible and represent a kid really struggling with confidence, but the Broncos have a quality list around him including Milford in outstanding form. The return of Oates and Reed further pluses in strengthening their outside edges, and Oates is a major meter eater and quality finisher.

Across the list depth and quality then handicap I have quite a gap between these two, the Broncos any where near their best should do a job here.

Bet 3 units Broncos -12.5  $1.91 Sportsbet  BB


Storm vs Knights

-17.5 Storm

Stats

The only match of the Round featuring 2 last start losers when the Knights take on the Storm. Newcastle caused 1 of the biggest upsets of the season when they last traveled to AAMI Park, recording just their 2nd win in Melbourne in 11 years. They have now won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Storm but it’s hard to see lightning striking again. They are off the back of a trip to New Zealand followed by this trip to Melbourne all inside 5 days. The majority of recent meetings have been closely fought, with 6 of the last 8 clashes having been decided by a margin of 1-12 points and 3 of the last 6 decided by just 2 points. The Knights have scored the 1st try in 5 of the last 6 clashes, including the last 4 meetings at AAMI Park. Melbourne has covered a double digit line in 5 of their last 7 at home, while the Knights have failed to cover in 8 of their last 10 on the road. In TMP’s, the Knights are the only side who have had all 4 games finish Overs, while Melbourne have also had Overs results in 6 of their last 7 daytime matches played at home.

Preview

Both sides on 5 day back ups, Storm have benefit of returning to a home game but the Knights come have off a NZ return leg to Newcastle then the quick back up down to Melbourne. The Knights are also not a noted travelling team especially to distant away venues and have only ever won 2 contests here, they also have the disadvantage of many young inexperienced players on their list, so this is likely to have been a tough week.

Storm / Bellamy don’t like losing, and off that loss last Monday and with two key forwards back I expect they aim up here and win, as the markets and handicaps agree.

I do like the play of total points over. We have a day game on what should be an open fast track, the Storm have been overs at 6 of their last 7 day games, the Knights over at all 4 of their last day games. If as I suspect the Storm want to put their foot down here then we should see plenty of points, the Knights last 3 games have provided 54, 48 and 58 point totals, if they can contribute two or more tries to this game then we should certainty see an overs result.

Bet 2 units Storm-Knights Over 42.5  $1.90 Luxbet


Tigers vs Sharks

+3.4 Tigers

Stats

The Tigers have won 15 of the last 19 clashes with the Sharks who travel to Campbelltown for the 1st time in 8 years, while its 14 years since they last recorded a victory at the ground. Both sides come into this match with a 2-2 record and both sides losses have been by 1-12, while they have each recorded a 13+ victory, which has also been the result in 4 of the 5 most recent clashes. Both sides are on a 5 day turn around and they have both struggled with the short preparation, the Tigers losing 8 of their last 9 and the Sharks losing 5 of their last 7. The Sharks have covered the line in 5 of their last 7 away games while they have had Unders results in all 4 of their matches this season, while the Tigers have covered a line in only 2 of their last 6 at Campbelltown and have had overs results in 6 of their last 7 matches.

Preview

The Campbelltown venue makes this a very interesting if not tricky game. The Tigers have won 15 last 19 vs Sharks at any venue, and so hold a dominant H2H advantage, they to play their best footy at this ground. Worse still for the Sharks, it’s 14 yrs since they have won at the venue. Both teams come off short 5 day turn arounds.

Looked a very tricky match up to me. Typical of a Rd 5 game the Tigers fit the bill of a side off two recent losses under a bit of internal focus and pressure desperate to aim up, win and get their season going again. While they couldn’t score a point last week the Eels form line does read strongly, and we do know that if on their 7, 6 and 1 can have a significant attacking influence on a game, but as a team they can be hard to catch. The Sharks were much better last Monday night when back at home, they also created some nice line break plays to advantage through the middle and also bombed probably a further 3 scoring opportunities.

A Sharks win wouldn’t surprise me at all, but I’m going with the Tigers to upset given the clear advantage they have enjoyed and carry longer term over the opponent and at this ground. Not a game I could touch with any betting play at all.


Cowboys vs  Dragons

-13.5 Cowboys

Stats

The Dragons have lost 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Cowboys and its 11 years since they last recorded a victory in Townsville. It’s the 1st of 3 games that the Dragons will play in Queensland over the next 3 weeks and they will need to address their poor away record as they have lost their last 5 games on the road, while the Cowboys have won 11 of their last 13 games at home. For the 1st time this season (and 1st time from last 7 outings) the Cowboys will not be able to field the same 17, with Kane Linnett missing with a shoulder injury. The Cowboys have scored 16 tries after 4 Rounds, 7 of them by a forward and the other 9 from their backline with all of the backs crossing at least once with the exception of JT who is yet to cross. The Cowboys have scored the 1 st points of the match in 8 of the last 10 clashes with the Dragons, who have opened the scoring with a Penalty Goal in their last 3 matches. The Cowboys are 1 of 2 remaining sides that are yet to be out scored in the 2nd half, while no side has scored fewer 2nd half points than the Dragons. The Cowboys are 7-1 Over in TMP’s from their last 8 at home and have covered a line in 5 of the 8, while the Dragons have covered in only 3 of their last 10 on the road and have had Unders results in 10 of their last 13 played away from home.

Preview

The Cowboys also come out of that classic game in Brisbane last weekend, into a return home game. The Dragons while defending well have come through some tough, grafting if not ugly games and now face a distant away contest.

I expect the Cowboys to be too professional in how they manage this game, and unlike their opponent they have some smarts about their attack and points in them. The Dragons tho can often drag an opponent down into an arm wrestle, 10 of their last 13 away games have seen under results, their opening 5 games this season have each provided low scoring under results, while 11 of the last 15 H2H between these two teams have also produced under results, and that’s how I want to play the game.

Bet 2 units Cowboys-Dragons Under 38.5  $1.90 Sportsbet


Roosters vs Warriors

Gosford

+2.0 Roosters

Stats

These 2 sides have racked up 1 win between them from their last 10 matches combined. Its 6 wins for the Roosters from the last 8 clashes with the Warriors, including the last 3 straight. They will be hoping for a change of fortune with a change of home venue, but Gosford Stadium has not been a happy hunting ground for the Roosters as they have lost 7 of their last 8 at the ground, while the Warriors away record also reads poorly, having lost their last 6 on Aussie soil. The previous 4 clashes played in Australia have totaled 35 points or less and with both sides spluttering in attack, a low score again looks likely. Points have come early in all 4 of the Roosters matches this season and they are the only side to be involved in matches where the 1st try has been scored prior to the 7th minute in all 4 Rounds. The Warriors are 1 of 3 sides that are yet to go to half time with a lead and they are the only side to have conceded the 1st try of the 2nd half in all 4 Rounds. The fact that the Warriors start as the favourite indicates how badly the Roosters must be travelling but you couldn’t tip the Warriors on recent history.

Preview

Very tricky game to tip the winner with this being played at a neutral ground in Gosford between two teams who have won a total of just 1 game between them in their combined last 10 games, and teams that leak points at will.

The Roosters should have won last weekend but for a poor bunker decision, but were still (at home) involved in a 40 point game. The are desperately missing a long list of key outs, now at least 6 top grade players which has punched a major hole in their quality, depth and combinations. Coach Robinson has all but been reinventing his structures and patterns of play while they have also come through a tough run of opponents. The Warriors finally broke through last week after a run of 11 losses with a home win but arguably against a bottom two opponent yet were stretched to 18 all at half time and then a lopsided run of ball early into the second half flattered the effort. They should have the advantage of a stronger list and combination, and with some ball do have some line break and points in them especially against teams like this current Roosters side who can leak points.

These two sides have each been leaking points, shown a preparedness to attack and each been involved in numerous high scoring points games season to date and that is the way I want to play this. The Roosters are leaking 32 points a game after just 4 while the Warriors are conceding 24 yet are worse still when on the road into Sydney or Oz where they have lost their last 6 away games and have a terrible longer term record. With the total points for this game set at 22 each that certainly stands out as the play.

Bet 2 units Roosters-Warriors Over 42.0  $1.93 Tabcorp


Eels vs Panthers

-7.5 Eels

Stats

The Eels have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Panthers, while the Panthers have won 3 of the last 4 clashes at Pirtek Stadium. Parramatta has won 3 in a row and a win over the Panthers will give them 4 consecutive wins for the 1st time in 5 years. They will need to overcome a poor recent record at Pirtek Stadium, recording just 2 wins from their last 9 matches. They have conceded the 1st try in 9 of their last 10 at the ground and they have also conceded the 1st try in 9 of the previous 11 clashes with the Panthers. The Eels have covered a line in their last 3 and on average, they are conceding less than 10 points a game, with the best defensive record in the competition, they kept the Tigers to nil last week and that was only the 2nd time in 5 years that they had kept an opponent scoreless. The Panthers are coming off their 3rd loss after a narrow defeat to the Dragons and find themselves on the road again this week. They have lost 8 of their last 9 away games and last week was the 1st time from their previous 5 games on the road that they have covered a line. They have had Overs results in 10 of their last 13 day time matches played away from home and 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Eels have also had the same result. In 6 of the Eels last 7 matches at Pirtek Stadium, the winning margin has been by 1-12 points and this has also been the margin outcome in all 4 of the Panthers matches in season 2015. Look to Peta Hiku as an anytime try scorer ($3.10) as he has been the Panthers 1st try scorer in their last 3 matches and has crossed for a try in their opening 4 games.

Preview

Parramatta Stadium is normally a significant advantage for the Eels and they return here for this in good quality form winning 3 for their first 4, conceding under 10 points a game and coming through arguably the strongest formline of any team right now (including Broncos, Cowboys and Bulldogs). The acquisition of Foran and Scott has made a significant difference to their defensive experience and read of the game, and offered key experience in particular to their right edge D, while Foran’s quality in directing them around the park has been nothing but professional. Right now they are a hard nut to crack, they give you very little and have a big physical pack to hurt you set after set on the way through.

What to say about the Panthers. They are riddled with skill and ability, especially with some of their talented youth but unfortunately have a coach who has no idea how to construct or execute their attack. They are 1 from 4 and have murdered numerous plays let alone games already, including last weeks game vs Dragons which now reads as ordinary rubbish (as it looked) given the Dragons pathetic offering last night in Townsville. The Panthers are nothing but frustrating to watch or read given the obvious potential they have.

I can’t go past the Eels at home and I’d expect their defensive structures will turn this into another physical arm wrestle. They do have some key players who can turn half a chance into a try, as they did last week and I think that’s where and how they win here. Given the likely style of contest I don’t want to play with a 6 to 8 point margin.


Bulldogs vs Raiders

Belmore

-11.5 Bulldogs

Stats

Bulldogs return to Belmore in the final match of the Round when they take on the Raiders. History shows its 18 years since the Raiders last played a match at Belmore and in that meeting, their half back was their current Coach in Ricky Stuart. The Dogs have won 4 of the last 5 clashes, including the last 3 straight, with all 3 wins coming by a margin of 1-12. In the previous 5 encounters the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 7th minute and this has also been the result in 9 of the Raiders last 12 games on the road. The Bulldogs have been poor at covering a line when playing at home, failing ATS in 5 of their last 6 as a home side, while the Raiders have a 9-5 covering record away from home over the last 2 seasons when getting a start of more than a converted try. In 3 of the 4 games of MNF in 2015, the TMP’s have finished Unders and this has also been the result in 12 of the Bulldogs last 16 night games, while the Raiders night games are also in favour of the Unders, producing a 12-9 Under record at night since 2014. In MNF, the Bulldogs have won 6 of their last 7 and all 6 wins have had a margin result of 13+, while the Raiders have lost 3 of their last 4 Monday night fixtures and this will be the 1st time they have played a Monday night game away from home since 2012.

Preview

Do the Raiders rush back both halves as selected? Personally I would be surprised but there seems no late info to suggest any different although the markets have firmed up a point in the Raiders favour. The Bulldogs have a healthy H2H winning 4 of the last 5 including the last 3 and have a further significant advantage with this game being played at Belmore.

Should their halves play then certainly this improves the Raiders list strength and importantly attacking punch and kicking game. As suggested last week while offering plenty of effort their form line and offering has been quite questionable and while they could well be undefeated they could also very easily be o and 4.  They have a bad habit of clocking in and out of games once again true in each of their four offerings this season including their late fold last week to the Titans. Further to this hot and cold in game form is that they are now conceding 22 points a game and have a bad habit to letting through quick tries in succession.

Lichaa is now a likely late inclusion for the Bulldogs at #9, a key in as they have had some issues with quality service and direction on occasions through recent weeks. While they were nothing but impressive last week in thumping the Rabbits through the first 40 minutes I’m not sure what we draw from that given how pathetic the Rabbits forwards actually were. Certainly when they are able to get their big forwards rolling they can create plenty of go forward and momentum, and while their attack and halves combination has spluttered at times through rds 2 and 3 there is no denying the quality of their defensive offering at present conceding just 13 points a week.

Very hard not to see the Bulldogs aim up at Belmore and be hard to beat here. Defensively they are well structured, offer little and are likely to frustrate the Raiders, who under pressure can turn over ball and error at critical times. I like the Bulldogs by 10 or more and want to have a small interest for them to cover the line.

Bet 1 unit Bulldogs -6.5  $1.90 Ubet or Crownbet

Note -5.5 Pinnacle or -6.0 elsewhere now available Monday afternoon.


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 5

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.

 

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 4

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 4

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 4 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+2.5 Rabbits vs Bulldogs

-5.5 Broncos vs Cowboys

-4.0 Raiders vs Titans

+2.5 Roosters vs Eagles

-3.5 Dragons vs Panthers

-16.5 Warriors vs Knights

+6.5 Tigers vs Eels

-3.5 Sharks vs Storm


NRL Round 4 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Titans +8.5  $1.80 Tabcorp

Bet 2 units Panthers +2.5  $1.91 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Warriors -12.0  $1.90 Ubet  BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Bulldogs, Broncos, Titans, Eagles, Panthers, Warriors, Eels, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Rabbits vs Bulldogs

+2.5 Rabbits

Stats

Two arch rivals clashing in what has become a traditional match over the Easter weekend. The Rabbitohs have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Dogs and 5 of the last 7 since 2013. 4 of the 5 wins have been by 1-12 points, while 4 of the last 5 clashes have finished Unders in TMP’s, with the most recent clash the only 1 of the 5 to finish higher than 36 points. Only twice in the previous 11 meetings have the Bulldogs outscored the Rabbits in the 2nd half, while they have scored the opening try of the match in 3 of the last 4. With 4 of the last 5 clashes going Unders and 8 of the last 11 day time matches at ANZ Stadium finishing the same way, the Unders looks a likely result.

Preview

This was a rippa clash last Easter but now stripped of much of the obvious quality given the 4 key outs for the Rabbits, in particular Sam Burgess (and the significant impact he has on those around him) and Reynolds kicking game which was so obviously missing last week. The other significant issues the Rabbits then face here is coming of the slug fest in the wet last Sunday, and the 5 day turn around (even tougher this season with the decreased interchange). I’m sure the Rabbits will be in the fight, but very hard to be with them.

I was so enthused watching the Bulldogs in round won as they belted the Eagles think “thank goodness the off season has done wonders to this mob and Des has got their mojo back”, how short it was lived…. They then got our of jail on the bell at Penrith where their opponent blew the opportunity and then spluttered their way through a really poor offering last week when soundly beat by the Eels. They have massive issues at #9, I just wouldn’t feed Garvey and how he has got to this level is amazing, he is slow, has a terrible pass and read of play, then we have Reynolds who in my opinion is a #9 strangling their attack at #6, and so just like last year we have this stop start, spluttering, ineffective attack from the Bulldogs through these last two weeks. It’s only week 4, so do they improve?

Have to tip the Bulldogs given the list of circumstances against the Rabbits, hope we see both teams lift as a great clash but I have zero confidence about wanting to touch the game with a bet.


Broncos vs Cowboys

-5.5 Broncos

Stats

Grand Final rematch closes out Good Friday when the Broncos take on the Cowboys. The Broncos will be out to avenge their 1 point loss and H2H stats are in favour of the home team, as the home side has won 9 of the last 10 clashes. More often than not, meetings between these 2 sides have been closely fought contests, with 12 of the last 18 matches decided by single figures and 7 of them by 2 points or less. The team to score the first try of the match has gone on to win 11 of the last 13 clashes and the half time leader has also won 14 of the last 16 meetings. Brisbane has scored the 1st try of the match in the last 4 meetings, while the Cowboys have scored the last try in 5 of the last 6 and they have also scored the last try in their 1st 3 matches of this season. The Broncos have covered a line in 74% of their matches at Suncorp Stadium since 2014, while the Cowboys have covered in 55% of their matches as an away side over the same period. 4 of the last 6 clashes have resulted in Unders for TMP’s, while 5 of the Broncos last 7 matches at home have also finished that way.

Preview

Excellent clash as we would expect, very hard to find much of a gap between them and playing at home has to be an advantage for the Broncos (and the Cows have lost their last 4 here). The Cowboys have some nice advantage on again playing with the same 17 week in week out and come off the soft walk through of the Roosters last week. Defensively they are very strong at present, and have been week on week offering up just 11 pts per game and there is no doubt that they have an air of positive confidence about themselves.

The Broncos were poor last week dropping a 10 point half time lead and failing to score in the second half. As many teams will they struggled defensively with the ball play and consistent off load game that the Panthers threw at them but they also lost control of the game with their key errors and missed tackle stats blowing out. While Milford has been in quality form the same can’t be said for Hunt who I think has been well off through these first 3 weeks and clearly must be struggling with confidence off the back of he late (and costly) error in the GF golden point time, facing up to the Cows here may well be an interesting challenge. He involvement has been poor, play making and touching the ball far less than required, making key defensive misses and some ordinary kick plays, the Broncos get probably get by most weeks covering up this but its key he improve for a contest like this.

I’m expecting that that loss last week and return home to a full house and big game contest will be good for the Broncos and they be up for the contest he. As we saw in the GF right now I think there is very little between these two, a key error, poor kick, moment of skill – that’s about all that separates them. Thurston v Hunt will be critical. As mentioned last week prior to the Cowboys thumping the Roosters I like good teams off an away loss returning home to a ground where they have some advantage and the Broncos certainly tick all of this profile this week and I lean to them in what should be a cracking game.


Raiders vs Titans

-4.0 Raiders

Stats

Titans have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Raiders at GIO Stadium but they come into this clash as the outsider and do so for the 4th week in a row. 5 of the last 6 meetings in Canberra have been decided by a margin of 1-12 points and all 3 of the Raiders matches in 2015 have also been close finishes. The Raiders are back at home and are1 of 2 sides that remain undefeated, while the Titans have lost their last 7 matches played on the road, the last 6 of them have been by a margin of 13+. There have been plenty of points on offer in recent clashes at GIO Stadium, with 7 of the last 8 clashes at the ground finishing Overs in TMP’s, with an average of 56 and the Raiders have also had Overs results in 8 of their last 10, including all 3 games of the current season. In the previous 6 clashes the Titans have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half and in 4 of the last 5 they have scored the last try of the match.

Preview

There is always risk with these two sides but I find it hard to get this any further than about 4 as a line either way, and just see up side with the Titans. The Raiders last two games come through the two sides yet to open their account with a win (Knights, Roosters), and both have copped a flogging or two already which surely reads as a thin form guide – in all reality the Raiders could well have lost both games so it’s hardly an inspiring or strong form reference. The Raiders remain without their two key halves, critical outs, lose one of their centres and given all of this disruption have had to resort to a very predicable attack pattern, and lets not forget they blew a 16 point lead last week and the week prior should never have got out with a win when down by a margin the the Roosters.

The Titans can be well prepared by Henry, they have won 2 of 3 and I think will fancy themselves here. Unlike many they also have a healthy enough away record, they are getting more out of a few of their key forwards than I expected and Ash Taylor is certainly starting to find his feet as a top grade #7 and a nice attacking combination with Roberts at #6. Plus 8.5 gets us over a key number and given the questionable form depth that the Raiders come through I think offers a key advantage, plus we are also playing through an early season period of weeks where a healthy plus line start can be a nice advantage.

Bet 2 units Titans +8.5  $1.80 Tabcorp


Roosters vs Eagles

+2.5 Roosters

Stats

Roosters have won 5 of the previous 7 clashes with the Sea Eagles and in 6 of the 7 meetings the winning margin has been by 1-12 points. The last 2 clashes at Allianz Stadium have resulted in a total of just 12 points, with both sides keeping the other to nil once each and only once from the last 7 meetings has the 1st try of the match been scored prior to the 8th minute. Despite having just 1 win to their credit, the Sea Eagles again start as the favourite and they, along with the Broncos are the only teams to start as the favourite in the opening 4 weeks. The Roosters are anchored at the bottom of the ladder with the worst defensive record and have conceded more than double the amount of points that they had after 3 Rounds last year.

Preview

Lot of focus on what the Roosters can offer here off 3 poor defeats two of which big thumping’s. Returning to their home track will help a little but with their list of key outs and now further injuries they are certainly up against things. I said pre season I wasn’t convinced with all the hype around Hastings and for mine he has been poor through these last few weeks, but certainly not on his own.

Eagles were very good on Monday, much better attitude and stiffened up there middle D, there are plenty of players who are critical to their teams performance (Thurston, etc) but possibly none more than the influence Brett Stewart has on the Eagles, we all know he’s a wizard in attack but he does so much to coordinate and direct their defence. They do come off the 5 day short turn around but that win should do them some good. With the Eagles but lots of ifs and buts about the game.


Dragons vs Panthers

-3.5 Dragons

Stats

The first of 6 matches on the road for the Panthers in the next 7 weeks when they take on the Dragons at WIN Stadium and despite a healthy recent record over the joint venture (have won 5 of the last 6), they have lost 9 of their last 11 games that have been played in Wollongong. The 1st points of the match have proved crucial when these sides meet as it’s now 8 times from the last 10 clashes that the side to open the scoring has gone on to win the match. Recent meetings have also been low scoring affairs with 8 of the last 9 matches resulting in Unders for TMP’s and 6 of the last 7 Dragons matches played at WIN Stadium have also finished Under. The Panthers have failed to cover the line in 5 of their last 6 away games and 4 of their last 5 as a road dog, while the Dragons have covered the line in 6 of their last 7 when playing at their true home ground (WIN Stadium or Kogarah).

Preview

The Dragons have to be opposed here, especially against a side that can play such high off load attack and create so much line break opportunity. Where do the Dragons points come from? They come off a hard slog in the wet where in my opinion the conditions made them look far better than they were, once again they could have camped themselves on the attacking 20 mtr line for 3 hours and still never looked like scoring a try and across three games they have scored just three tries? We saw last year that if an opponent can jump them with points they are in all sorts of trouble trying to find a way back into the game (and we saw this again two weeks ago at Cronulla). The Panthers were better last week, in particular in the second 40 where their offload game broke the Broncos up, they get Merrin and Blake back, Martin really looks the goods and that win might be a break through for them. If teh coach just lets them play some footy and doesn’t try to shackle it too much they should have too many points for this.

Bet 2 units Panthers +2.5  $1.91 Sportsbet


Warriors vs Knights

-16.5 Warriors

Stats

History shows that the Knights have recorded just 1 victory against the Warriors over the last 11 years when playing at Mt. Smart Stadium, losing 9 of 10. In recent times, these meetings have been closely fought contests, with 8 of the last 10 clashes having been decided by a margin of 1-12 points. The Knights are into a distant away game, where their record is poor, winning just 37% of them since 2013, while the Warriors have lost 11 straight and are 1 of 2 sides yet to register a point. Both sides have conceded 1st points in their opening 3 matches and both sides are yet to lead at half time. Consider Manu Vatuvei in first try scorer calculations as he has scored 10 tries in his past 8 games against Newcastle.

Preview

The Warriors have lost their last 10 yet as hard as I try I just can’t get them any closer than at least 18 points here, and I suspect this might well be the break through game for them. They were better against the Broncos, and then much better last week especially their attitude and commitment to defence and only got nailed late by a cool, professional Storm who make a habit of icing the clutch moments when it matters. Well they are not facing anything like the Storm here, a Knights side down 0-16 last week, got out with a draw and probably feel somewhat relaxed having released some of the pressure, terrible record as travelers especially to distant away games and with a very young in experienced list. The Warriors get the advantage of a 7 day back to back home gig and I’m expecting a very focused offering from a side now at a stage where they really want to put in and win. If as I suspect they get themselves going then they’ll grow with some confidence as the games unfolds, and they have plenty of points in them under such circumstances, if they aim up and manage this right they should win by a comfortable margin. 12 is a key number if you can bet this, or I’d be happy to play anything out to 14.

Bet 2 units Warriors -12.0  $1.90 Ubet  BB


Tigers vs Eels

+6.5 Tigers

Stats

Tigers have won 6 of the last 8 clashes with the Eels, including a 16 point win in the corresponding match on Easter Monday last year. Both sides have a poor record at ANZ Stadium, with the Tigers winning 6 of 15 over the last 3 seasons, while the Eels win last week over the Bulldogs was just their 3rd win at the ground from their last 22 matches. The Eels start as a favourite for the 1st time this season and they have a 50% record over the previous 3 seasons as a starting favourite. The Tigers have covered a line in 5 of their last 6 when getting a start, while the Eels have failed to cover the line in 7 of their last 9 when giving up a start. The Tigers have scored 17 tries in the 1st 3 weeks (took them until Round 7 in 2015 to score that many) and 12 of them have been scored via their right edge. Consider James Tedesco in try scorer calculations as he has scored 13 tries from 13 matches at ANZ Stadium, including 9 from his last 7.

Preview

Think the key here is the defensive stats, Eels conceding just 13 points a game after 3, Tigers conceding 26. The Eels defensive structures have been impressive and they come through a strong form line of Broncos, Cowboys and then nice win last week over Bulldogs. But, surprisingly Tigers have had the advantage and the wood on their opponents through recent years winning 6 of the last 8 H2H. On form, form lines and defensive commitment I like Eels but not a game I want to play in.


Sharks vs Storm

-3.5 Sharks

Stats

Storm has a dominant record over the Sharks, winning 10 wins of the past 11 encounters. Melbourne has also won 5 of the previous 7 clashes played at Shark Park. They have been comprehensive winners in the last 4 clashes, where all 4 wins have been by a margin of 13 +, with Melbourne averaging 38 points a game. They have scored the opening try of the match in the previous 11 clashes with the Sharks who have failed to score a 1 st half try in 7 of those 11 matches, averaging just 2 1st half points. Cronulla have won 5 of their last 7 at home, their 2 losses were against last weeks’ opponent in the Sea Eagles and this weeks’ opponent in the Storm. They are off the back of MNF and have only won 1 of their last 9 following a Monday fixture. The Sharks have scored 9 tries so far this season (ranked equal 8th), with 7 of the 9 having been scored attacking via their right edge.

Preview

Storm have quite a considerable recent record H2H here, winning 10 of the last 11 including 5 of the last 7 at the ground and have started the season 3 and 0, although I’m just not sure on the form strength just yet. They are professional and get the job done, but I’m just not completely sold on them up against better opponents and this might be a nice test. Sharks were poor last Monday and everything that was against them came to fruition, they return home, have a 7 day break and a nice challenge up against an opponent that should pose a nice contest. Their attack has been questionable, most of their tries season to date have come off kicks and they have failed to ball play off a couple of their leading forwards. Good game. I have a slight lean to the Sharks at home, but want to watch both and learn some more as to where they both are right now.


 


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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 4

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.

 

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 3

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 3

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 3 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-15.5 Cowboys vs Roosters

-6.5 Bulldogs vs Eels

Even Knights vs Raiders

+5.5 Panthers vs Broncos

-2.5 Titans v Tigers

Even Warriors vs Storm

+5.5 Dragons vs Rabbits

-1.0 Eagles vs Sharks


NRL Round 3 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Cowboys -10.5  $1.90 Centrebet

Bet 1 unit Panthers-Broncos Under 39.5  $1.91 Centrebet

Bet 2 units Dragons-Rabbits Under 42.5  $1.90 Sportsbet  BB

Bet 1 unit Sharks +1.5  $1.91 Centrebet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Cowboys, Bulldogs, Knights, Broncos, Titans, Storm, Rabbits, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Cowboys vs Roosters

-15.5 Cowboys

Stats

Roosters have more often than not, enjoyed their trips to Townsville, winning the 1st 7 clashes with the Cowboys at the ground, while things have evened up since then, with wins shared equally at 5 a piece dating back to 2005. The Roosters have won 3 of the 4 most recent encounters, while in the last 6 meetings, the side to score the 1st try has gone on to win the match. Both sides are on a short 5 day turnaround and off the back of a loss, but the Roosters still have a number of key outs and are on the road for the 2nd week in a row with a distant away game which hardly makes for an ideal preparation. The Cowboys will be stinging after their 1st loss as the defending Premiers and they have won 10 of their last 12 at home, scoring on average 28 points. 3 of the last 5 clashes have topped 60 points and with hot and humid conditions in Townsville, there is the likely hood of this match opening up and offering plenty of points, particularly if the Roosters fail to address their issues in defence.

Preview

I like quality form teams off an away loss returning home as the Cowboys do here, and in this instance we are talking the Premiers off a good quality form game but loss. The Cowboys have solid structure, a consistent quality 17 week in week out at present an play at home with this outstanding long term winning advantage including the recent run of winning 10 of their last 12. I see them playing to their strengths down each edge in attack and working over the general inexperienced edge defenders of Roosters, plus the Cowboys defence has again been excellent through recent weeks and will pose a significant barrier for the rookie halves and attack play of their opponents.

Lets put into perspective how poor the Roosters have been. Flogged first week by the Rabbits in an arch rival game, they then folded quicker than a card table last week when they had that game shot to pieces against an opponent who a) had their two most important players and play makers out, and b) played the second half with just 15 players. Disgracefully poor. They are desperately missing the quality and leadership of their 3 key outs and then the impact of the cap enforced list shake up that they will be going through all season long. They now face back to back distant away games and this second one a tough ask into Townsville.

Thurston had a poor night last week with many key errors, he doesn’t do that often, Cowboys are strong at home and should have a point to prove here, I’m keen that they will.

Bet 2 units Cowboys -10.5  $1.90 Centrebet


Bulldogs vs Eels

-6.5 Bulldogs

Stats

History shows that the Bulldogs have owned the Eels in recent seasons, winning 9 of the last 10 clashes since 2011, scoring more than double the points scored by Parramatta. The Eels have had a horror run at ANZ Stadium, losing 19 of their last 21, while the Bulldogs have won 6 of their last 7 at the ground. Both sides favour the Unders in TMP’s at ANZ Stadium, the Bulldogs have had 6 of their last 8 games finish that way, while the Eels have had the same result in 6 of their last 7 at the venue and Unders has also been the outcome in 3 of the last 4 clashes. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of the last 9 match ups, while the Eels have also conceded the 1st try in 8 of their last 10. Semi Radradra has been the Eels 1st try scorer in 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Bulldogs.

Preview

I think the handicap and market are about right but this is a game I think best to watch as after just two games I am still trying to get a quality read on both. The Bulldogs were nothing but impressive first up but the Eagles formline looks pretty soft right now and they then came out the other side of a dogged arm wrestle with a last minute win, but there also remains some doubt over Reynolds. Also, much like last week here they will match up against another big physical forward line up. The Eels come off two good efforts, last week a nice win over the Cowboys, again a tough physical contest and significant benefit with their halves back together and Foran calling the shots. But they lose two key forwards (Peats and M’au) and play at a ground that they just can’t turn a trick losing 19 of their last 21 games here and up against an opponent that has dominated them including 6 x 13+ results out of their last 9 wins.

The Bulldogs should hold lots of advantage here and I expect they win but it’s just not a game I want to roll into.


Knights vs Raiders

Even

Stats

The 1st away game of the season for the Raiders and the 1st home game for the Knights, but the home ground has proved to be little advantage for Newcastle in recent meetings with Canberra, as the Raiders have won 3 of the last 4 matches played at Hunter Stadium, while they have also won 4 of the last 5 H2H. More often than not, these meetings have been one sided affairs with 8 of the last 9 and 13 of the previous 15 clashes having been decided by a margin of 13+. There are usually plenty of points on offer when these sides meet, with a TMP average of 48 since 2008 and 3 of the last 5 have totaled 58 or more. A Raiders try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 4 meetings, while the Knights have conceded the 1st try in both of their games this season.

Preview

Knight looks a little stronger this week and the return home for their first game her off two very poor away offerings. They are hard to like but I came them some chance of improvement with some focus and pressure on them. No knock for the Raiders, very gutsy win last week but they could very easily have been 0/2 into this and are without 3 key players, in particular their two halves, into an away game and with the possibility of being happy with themselves off two wins, they have to be some risk.

Hate the game, weakest tip of the round but gave the Knights at home some chance of the upset.


Panthers vs Broncos

+5.5 Panthers

Stats

Home ground advantage has been beneficial when these sides have met recently with the home team winning 7 of the last 8 matches. A loss for the Panthers will give them a 0-3 start for the 1st time since 2002, while Brisbane are looking to open their account with 3 straight wins for the 1st time since 2009. The Panthers have won the previous 3 clashes with the Broncos at Pepper Stadium and in 4 of the last 5 meetings they have scored the 1st try of the match. Both sides currently sit mid pack in points for, while Brisbane is ranked at the top of the table for points conceded, having conceded just 2 tries. In 5 of the previous 6 clashes played at Pepper Stadium, the TMP’s have topped 40. After 2 narrow losses, it’s an important game for the Panthers as they play 6 of their next 7 games following this 1 away from Pepper Stadium.

Preview

Had the first two rounds have been 70 minute affairs the Panthers would be 2 and 0 into a big blockbuster at home vs the Broncos. Instead they have significant heat and expectation on their tail at 0 and 2 into a top of the table opponent. The Panthers previous record against the broncos has been good, especially when at home, and Griffin also has an excellent long term record of wins over Bennett.

I like what the Broncos are doing, building nicely, but this looks a bit of a trick game for mine for them. Off 3 nice sound wins to open the season (including UK), never really threatened in each, and possibly a few things falling nicely for them with both the Eels and then Warriors copping key in game injury outs which no doubt had some end influence. Everyone singing their praises, this whole scenario can lead to some subtle complacency.

We know that we’ll see bounce back up sets through rounds 3, 4 and 5 as sides just like the Panthers who have had lots of positive off season media and focus start the season with poor results and the need to perform intensifies. Their attack worries me, again last week 16 was not enough to win and more importantly they didn’t trouble the scoreboard with a try after the 11th minute, but their defence has been pretty well structured and for the most part sound and that is what I expect they will again focus on here.

A Panthers upset would not surprise me, especially at home, but I can’t tip against the Broncos. It does look a solid physical defensive arm wrestle, something the Broncos are very good with when on the road with an amazing long term record now of 73% under total results when interstate away (off a long sample), I think that’s the right way to play the game.

Bet 1 unit Panthers-Broncos Under 39.5  $1.91 Centrebet


Titans v Tigers

-2.5 Titans

Stats

After recording 5 consecutive home wins, the away side has now won 5 of the last 6 clashes when these 2 sides have met. The Tigers are on a short 5 day turnaround and it’s their 1 st away game of the season, they have the worst record in the comp in matches classed as distant away or interstate, winning just 2 of 10 since 2013, with 7 of the 8 losses having a margin result of 13+, in 8 of the last 9 of them they have failed to cover the line and they have also lost 14 of their previous 18 matches played outside of Sydney. Ironically, the only 2 wins from the 10 matches referred to have been against the Titans. The Titans have covered the line in the last 3 meetings and have led at half time in 5 of the last 6, but only in 1 of those have they outscored the Tigers in the 2nd half. The Titans have scored the 1 st try of the match in 5 of the last 6, while the Tigers have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 5 of the last 6. In margin outcomes, 5 of the last 7 clashes have been decided by 13+. James Tedesco has already scored 5 tries in 2 games and in both weeks he has scored the last try of the match.

Preview

I love the Tigers positive attack and right now no team is playing right to left ball shift with the skill, speed and execution that they are. I have to have a question over the depth through those two games (Warriors and Eagles) as they are now certainly looking two weak opponents but the Tigers will also have grown significant confidence. The knock has to be their away form, and in particular their our of Sydney distant away form where they have won only 4 of their last 18 such games. very few teams crumble when boarding a plane like the Tigers do.

Titans get their chance, off a home win first up but decidedly weak opponent through then an ok road offering in Melbourne which is tough for most. It’s the early weeks of the season but they are playing with some spirit and their forwards have been better than I expected while Taylor at #7 is going to be a very good player.

Could be plenty of positive attacking footy on offer here, I have to risk the Tigers on the road as a tip but happy to stay well away from the game.


Warriors vs Storm

Even Warriors

Stats

More often than not, clashes between these sides have been tight and torrid affairs, with 8 of the last 11 and 11 of the last 13 meetings at Mt Smart Stadium having been decided by a margin of 1-12 points. Only once in the previous 13 clashes has the side leading at half time been run down and only once in the last 6 matches have Melbourne led the Warriors at half time. Melbourne has had the better of the Warriors in the back end of matches though, as only once in the previous 11 clashes have the Warriors outscored Melbourne in the 2nd half and only once in their past 11 matches have the Warriors outscored any opponent in the 2nd half. A Warriors try has been the first scoring play in 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Storm, while Melbourne has scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 5 of the last 6. The Warriors have now lost 10 in a row, with their last win coming way back in Round 18 of last year, it was against this weeks’ opponent in the Storm.

Preview


Dragons vs Rabbits

+5.5 Dragons

SCG

Stats

The Rabbitohs have won 7 of the last 8 clashes with the Dragons and they have also won their last 5 matches played at the SCG, while the Dragons have lost their last 3 at the iconic venue. Souths have scored both the 1st points of the match and the 1st points of the 2nd half in the last 6 clashes with the Dragons, while the 1st try of the match hasn’t been scored until after the 7th minute in the last 5 meetings. The Dragons conceded 30 points last week and they have lost 8 of their last 9 games following a match where they have conceded 30 points or more. The Rabbitohs have scored 90 points in their opening 2 matches and are yet to concede a 1st half point. The last 4 clashes have finished Unders in TMP’s with only 1 of them topping 32 points and only 1 of the last 7 matches played at the SCG have topped 32. With a wet track forecast and the lack of points in the Dragons, the Unders looks a likely result.

Preview

Couple of keys to this game, obviously what the Dragons dish up in terms of attitude and effort, and the fact that this is being played at the SCG. It’s common knowledge that McGreggor gave his players a massive spray in the dressing rooms after their flogging last week at Shark Park so I’m sure that has continued on this week and being only week 3 I’m happy to cut them some slack to at least aim up here. Clearly (and once again) their attack structures and execution options are terrible, and its this lack of line break and points scoring options that then compounds the pressure on them mentally and makes them also have to work so much extra physically – it never ceases to amaze me how little some of these coaches appear to understand what their attack should be about and more importantly how dumb and basic they make their approach.

The Rabbits have been impressive but right now it looks about as impressive as kissing your sister as the form behind then is oh so thin (Knights, Roosters). How they are doing things is sharp, there appears an enhanced preparedness to play with the ball while also smashing it forward, they have a good kicking game, smart halves with some skill and speed and Inglis. Looking forward to seeing them up against a real test, but they look to be ticking over nicely.

The foundation of what McGreggor has done over the last 18 months has been defence, if he gets their heads back in the game this week then I expect they’ll look to make this another tough physical game. Being at the SCG and some chance of rain, and the fact that 6 of their last 7 games here have all gone under with none of them topping 32 points, plus the longer H2H record between them both being similar and question marks over what attack / points the Dragons bring to the contest then the under total looks the obvious way to play this.

Bet 2 units Dragons-Rabbits Under 42.5  $1.90 Sportsbet  BB


Eagles vs Sharks

-1.0 Eagles

Stats

History shows that the Sea Eagles have won 12 of the last 13 clashes with the Sharks and 7 of the last 8 played at Brookvale Oval and start as the favourite here despite being comprehensively beaten in their opening 2 matches. A loss to the Sharks will be just the 2nd time in a dozen years that Manly have opened their season with 3 consecutive defeats. The Sea Eagles have covered the line in their last 4 meetings with the Sharks, while 3 of the last 4 match ups have finished Unders in TMP’s. The Sharks have a poor record in Monday Night Football, recording just 5 wins from their past 21 games, while the Sea Eagles record isn’t much better, with just 2 wins from their last 6 Monday fixtures at Brookvale. Since 2013, the home side has won more than 80% of matches in MNF during the opening 5 weeks. Jorge Taufua has scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in the Sea Eagles opening 2 games.

Preview

If this game was played anywhere else than Brookvale I would near declare the Sharks. If what I have been seeing of the Eagles through the first two weeks is right then they are as soft as putty through the middle and Ms Fulton and Barrett have completely farked up buying the right forwards as part of their off season buying spree and rebuild of this list. The Bulldogs trampled them down the middle third of the park in game one and almost giggled as they did so, and low and behold the Tigers then did something similar last week and I certainly wouldn’t rate the Tigers middle up there with the toughest in this comp. The Sharks bring this as a strength, they have size, muscle and a preparedness to play direct, roll forward for yardage and then tough in defence. They come through a very good form hit out against the Cowboys who certainly offer a benchmark for measure in the big physical forward pack stakes, and then worked over and held the Dragons big pack with some ease last week.

The Eagles get Stewart back but from what I here will also make a further 2 to 3 team changes as they search for their first win. With all the rain of the last few days and Brookvale not being a track that drains very well I’d suggest we will see a wet track and the Sharks heighten their intent of playing this as physical and through the middle for as much as possible. The line for this game has seen a 5 point turn around across the last 5 days, moving from an early +3.5 Sharks to the now -1.5. The early position we have, or taking the Sharks straight up is the way I would play this.

Bet 1 unit Sharks +1.5  $1.91 Centrebet


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 3

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 2

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 2

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 2 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+3.5 Panthers vs Bulldogs

-12.5 Broncos vs Warriors

-1.5 Raiders vs Roosters

-14.5 Rabbits vs Knights

Even Eels vs Cowboys

-6.5 Sharks vs Dragons

-18.5 Storm vs Titans

+7.5 Tigers vs Eagles


NRL Round 2 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Rabbits -10.0  $1.92 Centrebet

Bet 1 unit Eels +4.5  $1.92 Crownbet

Bet 2 units Broncos H2H $1.32 x Rabbits H2H $1.32 x Storm >6.5 $1.35  Sportsbet  BB

Bet 1 unit Sharks-Dragons Under 39.5  $1.90 Centrebet

 

NRL Round 3 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Cowboys -10.5  $1.90 Centrebet

I have this marked -14.5 as a minimum, Cowboys return home off a loss, Roosters face back to back away games this a distant travel, were touched up by Rabbits and should never have lost to Raiders.

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Bulldogs, Broncos, Roosters, Rabbits, Eels, Sharks, Storm, Eagles


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Panthers vs Bulldogs

+3.5 Panthers

Stats

The Panthers have a healthy record over the Dogs when playing at home, winning 6 of the last 8 clashes played at Pepper Stadium. Recent meetings have been tight affairs with 6 of the last 7 clashes decided by a single figure margin, while only twice in the last 8 meetings have the Panthers trailed the Bulldogs at half time. The home side has scored the opening try of the match in 9 of the last 10 clashes, while 3 of the last 4 meetings have finished Unders in TMP’s. In the last 7 clashes the Panthers have been unable to outscore the Bulldogs in the 2nd half, with the Bulldogs outscoring Penrith 100 – 48. The Panthers are off the back of a 5 day preparation and their record on a short turnaround is not positive, with a 5-8 result since 2012. A win to the Dogs will be the 1 st time since 2012 that they have been able to register wins in the opening 2 weeks of the competition.

Preview

It’s game 2 and I’m happy to remain cautious here, but a) if I was to speculate at double figure odds a team to challenge the top few this year then right now it would be the Bulldogs, and b) but for the fact this is a milestone 50th Anniversary game for the club I’d be very happy to take the Panthers on.

I caught up with a close contact during the last week who is close to the action at the Bulldogs. Late last season Hasler did a massive overhaul of their fitness staff including the appointment of his number one man from his time at Brookvale, all of which has led to a major shake up to their fitness and conditioning approach. It’s common news that they have dropped weight off many of their big men, but my understanding is they have also significantly changed and tweaked their aerobic fitness. Hasler has an approach which I love, size, muscle, power through the middle, a 9 man forward assault, give it to them, give it to them and then just give it to them some more! Having stripped some excess carriage off his big boys, improved their mobility and endurance we then saw some pretty ominous signs last week as to where they might be headed this season as they trampled the Eagles through the middle of the park. Better still they add Klemmer to their list for this week! Off a dam nice win, weak opponent offering and their first big physical hit out they might have some risk of let down, so I want to see what we get second up.

Long term readers would know I am no rap for Griffin as a coach at this level, and am staggered that he has got a gig again and for the recent love affair that Gould has had for him. It will be short lived. He was lucky enough to have Lockyer prop him up for a couple of yrs when he first stepped in at the Broncos, has next to zero idea how to coach attack and I am yet again convinced they will struggle through this season. Their attack last Saturday was putrid, what the hell they have been doing through their ball work sessions across the last 3 months I’ll give up, terrible structure, patterns of play, no idea how to set their sets of 6 up in the final 30 mtrs to play set plays with an intention to create a hole, an overlap, move defenders to advantage or puncture the line. But we’ve seen this all before. And my mail through recent days is that they are to have only one formal ball work session this week.. I spent time under two first grade coaches who knew how to coach attack and we did a minimum of 3 to 4 quality sessions a week, not so as to robot them, but such that they were will drilled, knew what to do and how to react under pressure and in certain parts of the field, and were well armed with set plays and sets of 6 that had attack and points as the focus.

I want to look at the Panthers again, plus it’s a major milestone game for the club that will have all the trappings of old boys weekend, history, tradition and alike and so the players may well pull a major effort out. But I was nothing but impressed with the Bulldogs last week, it wasn’t the winning, it was the how.


Broncos vs Warriors

-12.5 Broncos

Stats

After 3 consecutive losses to the Warriors, the Broncos have won the 2 most recent clashes and a win this week will make it 3 straight victories over the Warriors for the 1st time since 2000. Brisbane have the benefit of an 8 day preparation and a bumper crowd for their 1st home game of the season, while the Warriors are on the road for the 2nd week in a row and have lost 4 of their last 5 at the ground. In 6 of the last 7 clashes (including the last 4 straight) the winning margin has been by 1-12 points, while 3 of the last 4 meetings played at Suncorp Stadium have totaled 50 points or more. The away side has scored the opening try of the match in 4 of the last 5 clashes, while the team to score the 1st try has gone on to win 8 of the last 10 match ups. The Broncos have won 9 of their last 10 Friday night matches at Suncorp Stadium and they have also scored the opening try in 9 of those, while they have covered the line in 8 of the 10. The Warriors have now lost 9 in a row, conceding an average of 32 points a game, which includes their last 5 away games.

Preview

Again, if it walks like a duck, quacks like a duck then its a bloody duck!! I have said for months the Warriors are gone, left them out of my top 8 and only saw all the reasons why again on show last weekend. The joint is a rabble, has been for many years and again they will waste another year as non performers. I have no doubt (and nor does he) that the coach will be sacked through the coming weeks and the next cycle of drama and alike will all start again.

I keep reminding myself that it’s round 2, they may respond for a week and Bennett is just focusing on his defensive structures right now, but if the Broncos are half serious and do want to play with the ball they could open this right up as the Warriors response will be meek under any sort of sustained pressure.


Raiders vs Roosters

-1.5 Raiders

Stats

The Roosters have won the last 3 clashes with the Raiders but those 3 wins were all with the home ground advantage, their record at GIO Stadium isn’t quite as attractive, with only 2 wins from their last 8 visits to the ground. Another loss this week will make it just the 2nd time in more than 20 years that the Roosters have lost their opening 2 games of a season, while a win for the Raiders will give them 2 wins to open a season for the 1st time since 2005. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of their last 10 matches against the Raiders, who have conceded the 1st try in 6 of their previous 9 at home. The Raiders halves had a hand in 4 of their 5 tries last week and with both of them now missing for an extended period, the Raiders will find things very difficult.

Preview

Likely another hot Saturday afternoon game. I have penalised (handicap) the Raiders heavily with the loss of their two halves, major outs then duplicated with them both being injured, that has to put a massive hole in their attack abilities, combinations, kicking game and leadership. The Roosters come off an embarrassing offering first up leaking 42 points, they have a similar list and I’m sure Robinson has been all over hem like a rash this week getting their attitude and heads right to be aiming up here, but they still lack class and experience in key roles in particular in the halves.

A very tricky game to try and line up given the key outs. I’m cutting the Roosters some slack to improve with some bounce back for round 2 off such a poor offering, and they get their chance with such key outs for the Raiders. The home side also have to be very suss into the second half off such a punishing game in the heat last week. All the stats suggest this is an open attacking game with lots of points and a likely total points over bet, but I am staying out given some many key attack play makers are not playing (Austin, Sezer, Pearce).


Rabbits vs Knights

-14.5 Rabbits

Stats

The Rabbitohs have a dominant recent record over the Knights, recording 5 consecutive wins and they have outscored their opponent 102 points to 16 from the last 2 encounters. It’s their 1st game of the season at ANZ Stadium, where they won 7 of 10 in season 2015, but covered a line in only 3 of those. They conceded the 1st try of the match in 8 of 10 at the ground last year, while 7 of the 10 matches finished Unders in TMP’s. They have a couple of key outs in Sutton & Reynolds, while they welcome back Keary looks set to return. The Knights find themselves away from home for the 2nd week in a row after being soundly beaten by a side that ranked 14th in attack in 2015. They won only 4 of 12 on the road last year and 8 of their last 9 losses have been by a margin of 13+.

Preview

Very hard to see how the Knights compete here and they face back to back away / travel games. Rabbits have a key loss in Reynolds who was outstanding last week but they get a suitable replacement in Keary, plus they get George Burgess into their forward line up.

Not a lot to be said here, Rabbits have an excellent long term record here at home, and have won their last 5 straight over the Knights. I have the Rabbits rated at present somewhere around 3rd spot and the Knights bottom two and they come off a poor loss to another bottom table side first up leaking 30 points. I have the Rabbits 12 to 16 point winners.

Bet 1 unit Rabbits -10.0  $1.92 Centrebet


Eels vs Cowboys

Even

Stats

The Cowboys have won 6 of the last 7 meetings with the Eels, including their last effort at Pirtek Stadium when they overcame a 24 point deficit, scoring 30 points in 25 minutes. The Cowboys have dominated the Eels in the 2 nd halves in recent matches, scoring a combined total of 100 points to 10 from the last 4 clashes. The home side has scored the opening try of the match in the last 6 clashes, while the Cowboys have scored the last try of the match in the previous 7 meetings. The Cowboys 1st away game of the season and they will be looking to continue on their winning way as an away side after a record breaking 9 wins on the road after 26 Rounds in 2015, they also won 7 of 8 in Sydney which equals the amount of wins that they had achieved in Sydney over the previous 3 seasons combined. It’s a different story for Parramatta who has now lost 7 of their last 8 at Pirtek Stadium, while they have conceded the 1st try of the match in 8 of their last 9 at the ground.

Preview

As suggested last week I have nothing but respect for the Cowboys and am not looking to deliberately lay them week after week but into this match up and at this ground I expect this to be close and the Eels a significant chance of winning.

The Cowboys were back in the groove last week, a nice tough arm wrestle, they had enough when it mattered and their defence was sound. Having now knocked up that round one home victory they head to a ground that their long term record at is very poor, and a big physical opponent who also come through a strong form reference and have key ins. The Cowboys have lost 6 of their last 8 games at this ground, it should be 7 of 8 as they were down by 30 here last season and turned on an amazing late escape. They have confidence and solid combination, no doubt, but for what ever reason this ground has often made them look poor. Unlike last year they will now face an Eels line up at full strength.

Foran is a major in, plus Norman will be back who was a major loss in the first half last week. I liked a lot of what I saw from the Eels, in particular their attack set up and structures, they are prepared to ask questions and play with the ball and have an off load game in the middle that is going to open many sides up. They have a significant long term record as a home underdog (72% off a long sample) and will be keen to get themselves a major scalp and their first win.

I want to be with the Eels at home, I think they can cause an upset and the +4.5 looks a nice position given their long term record and advantage when at home and receiving the line. Looks a very good game.

Bet 1 unit Eels +4.5  $1.92 Crownbet


-6.5 Sharks vs Dragons

-6.5 Sharks

Stats

The Dragons have won 5 of the last 7 clashes with the Sharks and 4 of the previous 7 meetings at Remondis Stadium. The Sharks have averaged less than 10 points a game against the Dragons since 2009 and only twice in the last 9 clashes have they scored more than 12 points. They have also scored more than 6 1st half points in only 2 of the previous 15 clashes with the Dragons. Only once from the last 7 meetings have the Sharks scored the 1st points of the match and only once in those 7 have they gone to half time with a lead. The Dragons are off the back of MNF where their record is poor, but they have won 6 of their last 8 following a Monday night game. The 1st home game for the Sharks, where they had a 50% record last year, averaging 18 points a game and on 6 occasions last year, the Sharks opened the scoring with a Penalty Goal when playing at home. This is the only match of the Round featuring 2 last start losers, ensuring 1 of these 2 teams will be anchored towards the bottom of the ladder.

Preview

Local derby, always a good clash where the Dragons have held the recent advantage winning 5 of the last 7. Sharks come out of a good form reference and game last week against the Cowboys, they defended well but lacked some key combination and polish to their attack in a tough physical arm wrestle. They lose Gallen which I’m not that sure is such a big loss these days as he is very much at the end of career and seems to make a habit these days of getting in the way in attack more often than not and I like Bukuya as a player as he has nice foot work and can hit a hole. The Dragons also come out of a good form reference losing to the Storm in Melbourne although there were times in that game that it looked like it might get away from them. It’s noted that McGreggor likes to focus much of his offseason and early months on defence so I don’t expect much different here.

Dragons were competitive last Monday and certainly had a number of key calls go against them late in the game which proved telling. Packer was good and will only improve with further match fitness. Their attack still looks short on combination and set plays and still very slow and predicable getting things started our of dummy half.

Just looks like a physical game of chess here, two sides searching for a win who don’t like each other all that much into an early season match up where defence is likely to be the winner. Likely tough tight arm wrestle, I like the unders bet interest.

Bet 1 unit Sharks-Dragons Under 39.5  $1.90 Centrebet


Storm vs Titans

-18.5 Storm

Stats

The Storm has won 7 of the previous 9 meetings with the Titans and 6 of the 8 clashes in Melbourne. Melbourne are at home for the 2nd week in a row, while it’s the 1st away game of the season for the Titans who have struggled for road wins, with an average of 41% over the previous 3 seasons. The Storm have scored the opening try of the match in 8 of the last 10 clashes, while a Titans Penalty Goal has been the 1st scoring play in 3 of the last 8 encounters. A winning margin of 1-12 points has been the result in 5 of the last 6 meetings, while the 1 st try of the match hasn’t been scored until after the 7th minute in 5 of the last 6. The last 4 matches have finished Overs in TMP’s and this has also been the result in 6 of the last 8 clashes played in Melbourne. In the last 6 clashes, the Storm have been unable to go to half time with a lead, while only once in the last 9 meetings have they been outscored by the Titans in the 2nd half.

Preview

I found it hard to get this any closer than the 18.5 as they just look poles apart in quality and offering. The Storm have the advantage of back to back home games and a nice healthy week at home preparing for their next game and have a quality full list. They were rusty last week, came from behind and then had opportunities to put the result well beyond reach yet didn’t and I’m sure Bellamy has been very angry and focused this week on their game management and control, taking a grip and then putting the foot right down. The Titans were game last week but that form line in touching up the Knights doesn’t read very well and that contest was the weakest by far of the round for mine and this is a very very different match up. Henry is good at getting his teams up and prepared but the Storm at home is a task.

Hard to see anything else than the Storm aiming up here, especially on the back of what I suspect has been a very days of Bellamy climbing all over them and wanting 80 minutes of perfection here.


Tigers vs Eagles

+7.5 Tigers

Stats

The Sea Eagles have won 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Tigers, but they have lost 4 of the last matches 5 played at Leichhardt Oval. There have been plenty of points on offer in recent clashes, with the last 4 meetings totaling 48 points or more, while 5 of the last 6 Tigers matches at Leichhardt Oval have finished Overs in TMP’s. 4 of the last 5 meetings have resulted in a margin of 13+ and the same margin has been the result in 8 of the Tigers last 9 matches at Leichhardt Oval (with the Tigers losing 7 of those 8). A Sea Eagles try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 meetings and they have also scored the last try in 4 of the last 5. The Tigers have lost 6 of their last 8 games of MNF, while the Sea Eagles have won 6 of their last 8 Monday fixtures.

Preview

Final team lists and key ins a major interest here, with Brooks and Halatau back for the Tigers and interest as to where Stewart returns for the Eagles.

In trying to line up this game the key is the likely patterns of play. The Eagles showed a soft underbelly last week being trampled through the middle which they have reacted to by making some key changes to their front row and middle set up, but the Tigers won’t look to play this through the middle as that is not their strength or focus and we are likely to get an attack led shoot out. There was a lot to like about the Tigers attacking efforts in the first half last week but I qualify that but also reminding us that it was against a feeble disinterested Warriors defence. I also thought a few of their tries came off large doses of luck, which happens, but these two issues question the depth of the result let alone how they then also defended poorly through the second 40. Brooks is a huge in, a classy #7 and his combinations with the #6 and #1 will take them a long way here.

The Eagles have to improve and there will be significant pressure on them to do so. Walker looked to struggle at #6 last week while Cherry-Evans didn’t step up with the type of authority required in game management and direction. This raises a key point into these weeks ahead, DCE has not been a noted play director in the past with Foran running the show to class effect and the Eagles certainly looked rudderless last week.

I lean slightly to the Eagles on the bounce back, a big kick up the backside this week and a desperate need to win, but the Tigers are in this up to their eye balls and if they can through some positive attack (and possibly points) at their opponent early on then they’ll only grow with confidence and could well open this game right up. A game I marked as one to just watch and learn from.


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 2

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 1

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 1

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


 

Rd 1 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+2.5 Eels vs Broncos

-6.5 Eagles vs Bulldogs

-7.5 Raiders vs Panthers

+9.5 Tigers vs Warriors

+6.5 Cowboys vs Sharks

Even Roosters vs Rabbits

-2.5 Titans vs Knights

-8.5 Storm vs Dragons


NRL Round 1 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Eels-Broncos Under 40.5  $1.90 Centrebet

Bet 1 unit Raiders -3.5  $1.92 Crownbet  BB

Bet 1 unit Sharks +8.0  $1.95 Tabcorp

 

Being cautious to start the season, history tells me that across the last 6 seasons we have had opening 5 to 6 rounds where underdogs have won up to 60% of games outright, while trying to get a read on the form and more general form lines I will also be looking to limit exposure.

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Eagles, Raiders, Warriors, Cowboys, Rabbits, Titans, Storm


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

 

Eels vs Broncos

+2.5 Eels

Looks significant doubt over Foran which if out would move my handicap to -6.0, they are also without Watmough and have a list of key signings and team changes. Broncos are without Maranta and Reed and look well ready off an impressive hit out in the UK. The Eels record at home had been very good through recent seasons until last season with it again falling away, most recently losing 6 of last 7 at home. The Broncos are one of the more professional “road” teams in the comp, won 5 of the last 7 when away to finish the H and A season last yr and have won 3 of their last 4 at Parramatta.

Should Foran not play it looks to put a very different complexion across the game, and importantly the leadership and direction of the Eels play. They have added some quality in key areas of their game, but I’d be surprised if Coach Arthur plays things any differently than he has in the past at that is that he loves a big physical forward pack that likes to belt its way through and control the middle of the park while also working over their opponent. In watching key sections of the Eels last trial against the Panthers things looked very much the same. If done well they are looking to create some physical advantage while providing their halves with some room to play.

The Broncos looked very much like the Broncos in their UK hit out, very professional, well drilled, lots of discipline, ball control and then field position management, all the quality stuff we saw last year. The Broncos dropped their bundle off their UK game in opening the season last year being flogged first up at home by the then defending Premiers the Rabbits, I’m sure Bennett will be all over this and looking for something far more of his liking here (and given his press conference today I’m sure he has been all over his players through recent days ensuring he is knocking any hint of complacency out of them).

This looks like a nice tough arm wrestle for a long way, and I’m expecting both sides up for the occasion. Arthur is noted for being able to motivate and get his charges up and he will have had this game set for some weeks, and they did jump the Eagles easily (42-12) first up at home last year. Equally I’m expecting the Broncos to be slipping back into the groove. Tipping the Broncos might outlast their opponent with discipline and control late in the event, they also have an excellent long term record at turning these away games into tight / Under affairs. Should Foran not play that should weaken further the Eels attack / points.

Bet 1 unit Eels-Broncos Under 40.5 $1.90 Centrebet


Eagles vs Bulldogs

-6.5 Eagles

I have the Eagles rated on potential so some caution till we see how this unfolds. They have made massive changes across their list, most of them quality and added a new coach in Barrett, and after weeks of work on paper I’m happy enough with where I have them pegged to start the season, but playing combinations (and results) are something different. My mail form some close to the players and training park at Manly have been nothing but lavish in their praise of Barrett’s work to date, he’s calm, sharp, well organised and knows what he’s doing, one very experienced International who has played under some very very good coaches has stated privately to date Barrett is the best he’s played under, some rap. A ball hasn’t been kicked in anger yet, but it’s a happy camp that form all accounts from opinions I respect is very happy and well prepared to start the season.

But lots of questions. Have the size and depth in the middle, combinations and penetration with their backrowers, how does Walker aim up at 6? Stewart is in some doubt, but I have not heard anything firm yet. My expectation is that they are going to want to play up tempo with their game speed, be prepared to move the ball, and play to their speed and skill (7, 6 and 1) and edges.

I have numerous questions on the Bulldogs to, and much that I want to see. B Morris and Klemmer key outs. I though the Mybe and Reynolds combination was the weakest (and poor) of those that they played with through the closing months of last year, and Hodkinson a significant out given his quality long kicking game, abilities to direct play and kick goals. But Hasler can coach, and his record speaks for itself, form all accounts he has trimmed down a number of his big forwards and his squad is as fit as he has had them.

A game full of question marks, we will learn a lot here. Brookvale is a huge advantage for the Eagles. I’m with them but found both sides and the game hard to mark at this stage with any confidence.


Raiders vs Panthers

-7.5 Raiders

Raiders have purchased well through the off season have look to have the potential to now challenge for a top 8 spot, there two major purchases will be on show here in Sezer and Whitehead. Panthers have a major out in Moylan. Interesting home and away records for the last year for both sides, Raiders winning just 3/12 at home while Panthers only won just the 2 away games.

It’s the first game of the season and so we’ll expect some rusty play but I’m expecting the Raiders to be a) picking up where they were developing to last season with strong ball movement and attacking skill, and b) be further improved with the addition of Sezer and Whitehead and experience into their kids. Stuart can be good at getting his players up for a game, but balance is the key as he can also be prone to heaping lots of pressure and expectation. But the mix looks right in many key combinations, time will tell.

I want to see the Panthers, and what unfolds here and into these next few weeks. I’m not necessarily Griffin’s biggest fan, Moylan is huge out, questions over what they do and or will work in the halves, and how some of their kids come up. Griffin’s attack plans and patterns have also been a significant issue for me in the past, and while only a nothing trial they did look bloody pedestrian against the Eels a few weeks back.

It’s first game, but the Raiders don’t have to change much, add some polish with Sezer, same coach and approach, pick up where they were and kick on. Panthers new coach, some new combinations and missing their key superstar. Going with the Raiders to start the season well.

Bet 1 unit Raiders -3.5 $1.92 Crownbet


Tigers vs Warriors

+9.5 Tigers

Gee I wish Farah and Brooks were playing here first up as I think the Tigers at full strength and at home would have beaten the Warriors, but unfortunately they are key outs. I have little confident that McFadden knows what he is doing given the results of the last 6 months, let alone the team list he has put up here, plus as well noted in the media through recent days their first round efforts each season are terrible as is their away record in Sydney. The Tigers also look somewhat unknown with a number of new faces and combinations, plus the obvious issue of experience and capability at #9.

It’s a watch game. The Warriors could put moments of brilliance on and win by 30. They could also fold quickly and lose by 6, I wouldn’t trust them to help me cross the road.


Cowboys vs Sharks

-6.5 Cowboys

The Cowboys did it all last yr, I love watching them play and the positive attacking approach they play, so I have no knock on them but I do have significant question marks on this game and maybe the real huger year long (but that will unfold in due course). It took 10 yrs to get the monkey off their back and they duly celebrated for 3 months all over Nth Qld, they then come into this game first up at home with a full house, lots of local media hype and backslappers into a willing opponent. They also have a questionable record as slow starters most seasons, and first game at home last yr were soundly touched up by the Knights who went on to win the wooden spoon.. They have to be some risk here.

The Sharks have bought well, Maloney a huge buy, classy link at #6, quality kicking game, and kicks goals. They have no outs, and my mail is have had an excellent 10 day prep setting this game first up as a major focus including an out of town team camp 7 days ago. They were touched up by the Cows in the finals but did win both games earlier in the season and do have a good overall record in Townsville and H2H.

I marked this game much shorter than the markets earlier this week, and now the rain has come with up to 30 mms of rain forecast for Saturday on top of rain last night.

It’s round 1 and I am happy to stick with the Sharks at the + line as a formal bet, but personally I will also be having an interest through the Sharks H2H at the $3.25 that’s around at present.

Bet 1 unit Sharks +8.0 $1.95 Tabcorp


Roosters vs Rabbits

Even

Sadly a game knocked around with key outs, Waerea-Hargreaves, Cordner and Pearce missing for the Roosters while Keary, Grevsmuhl and Tom and George Burgess are all key outs for the Rabbits. Sam Burgess in clearly a key return for the red and green but on the back of this both sides are adjusting to key off season changes, so a game that looks tricky to read.

The Roosters look to have some advantage in the middle but have in experience but promise across their inside 4 backs, while the Rabbits look a bit patched up with noted bench players now filling key forward roles.

Another tricky game that could go in any direction. The Roosters have a healthy long term record in this early season clash but with so many key personal changes to both sides and it being a round 1 match up its impossible to get any sort of read to forecast. Lets just watch and see what we might learn.


Titans vs Knights

-2.5 Titans

Well if we already had a few games that looked tricky to read then this is like a 5,000 piece jigsaw puzzle that has just been tipped on the floor… Both sides have key outs, and then have rookies scattered everywhere across their list, plus new combinations in lots of key places.

For all of their poor form and travel record through recent seasons the Knights actually have a good record both against the Titans winning 4 of the last 5 H2H and at the ground winning 4 of the last 5 here. I’m a rap on Brown as a coach and while it’s going to probably take a couple of seasons for him to re build his list he is very astute with his game plans and has his teams very well prepared, so I will be watching with interest their approach. Henry is equally a good coach working with depleted quality but as we saw last yr he also made a habit of having his weak team aim up.

I went with the Titans at home with little confidence, I just want to sit down and watch with interest what’s on offer.


Storm vs Dragons

-8.5 Storm

A good game and match up to finish the round with. The Storm have an outstanding record early in the season, Bellamy is a master of a tough off season and in preparing his team through the final 4 weeks into their first few games with highly drilled sessions such that they could walk through their patterns of play in their sleep. They have the huge added benefit here of now having been able to provide Smith, Cronk and Stater with full off seasons preps without any rep commitments and this should have a massive impact on their early season form. Add to this their undeniable record at home and the fact that they have beaten the Dragons at their last 13 contests in Melbourne then they do look very hard to beat here.

The Dragons have some key changes, notably Packer up front and Mann and Lafai in their backs, but will be missing one of their best forwards in Frizell. Coach McGreggor showed this time last yr that with the benefit of a full off season he was able to coach a touch well structured plan in defence which went on to shut down many opponents through the opening rounds and win them games, and so I’m sure we are likely to see something similar again this season.

This game looks a lot like Thursday’s opening game, two willing teams well prepared likely to slug this out right through the 80 minutes, with the likely difference being the Storm’s home advantage and noted game control and discipline. To beat the Storm you need to get them out of their rhythm, play some up tempo footy and turn any advantage into points such that then have to chase and play outside their norm, but all of that is easier said than done as they have such quality game management led by Smith and Cronk.

Good contest, I think the markets have the handicap about right, happy to watch how it unfolds.


 


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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 1

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.

 

NRL Tips and Game Previews

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Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Game Previews and Betting Plays

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr.G (aka Gerard Condon) is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional NRL players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering. Mr.G now provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews and recommended NRL sports betting tips.

 


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NRL Results here > Rd_8_RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2020

Bets Win % Units Bet Units Return Profit POT
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2019 Best Bets 19 from 29 @ 67% strike Rate



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Results 2013-19

Profit +100.2 units

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That’s $10,000 Profit since commencement in 2013!



NRL Tips Game Previews Recommended NRL Sports Betting

Mr.G’s NRL tips betting plays and previews combine his knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the NRL betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

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Mr G provides our NRL tips and game previews. Professional analysis from an experienced pro. Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr.G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional NRL players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering. Mr.G now provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews and recommended NRL sports betting tips. Mr.G’s NRL tips betting plays and previews combine his knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the NRL betting markets.

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NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips 2014 – Finals Wk 3

 

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