NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 15

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 15

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 15 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+1.5 Rabbits vs Eels

+2.5 Dragons vs Storm

-6.5 Warriors vs Roosters

-8.5 Titans vs Eagles


NRL Round 15 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Storm +6.0 $1.91 William Hill

Bet 4 units Titans -4.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Eels, Storm, Warriors, Titans


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Rabbits vs Eels

+1.5 Rabbits

Stats

The Rabbitohs will host the Eels at ANZ Stadium to kick off another abbreviated Round of NRL. For the 2nd week in a row, the Rabbitohs will play a side that they faced 5 weeks earlier. They snuck home in the 80th minute in the last meeting with Parramatta to make it 9 wins from the previous 10 clashes with the Eels, which includes the last 7 meetings at ANZ Stadium dating back to 2010. In 5 of the Rabbits last 6 wins over the Eels at ANZ Stadium the winning margin has been by 18 points or more with an average of almost 28 points. A Rabbitohs try has been the 1st scoring play in 11 of the last 13 clashes with the Eels who have conceded the 1st try in 4 of their last 5 matches away from Pirtek Stadium. Souths have lost both matches off their Bye to make it 6 losses from their last 8. Only once in those 8 matches have they led at half time and they have conceded 1st points in 7 of them. Since Round 7 they have conceded at least 20 points a game at an average of almost 30. They are 5-8 ATS and have covered only 1 of their last 7 at ANZ Stadium. The Rabbits have had Overs results in their last 5 straight to be 9-5 Over, while they are 5-1 Over at ANZ Stadium this season and only 2 of the previous 10 clashes with Parramatta have totaled less than 40. The Eels will be aiming for 3 straight victories for the 2nd time this season as they head into their final Bye Round. They have won 4 of their last 5 heading into a Bye and are yet to suffer defeat at ANZ Stadium this season, winning 3 from 3. Parramatta come into this match with 8 victories under their belt, which is just 1 shy of their 9 wins for the entire season in 2015. They are 7-6 ATS and have covered a line in 5 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium, while they have won 6 of their last 7 when starting as an away favourite. In TMP’s they are 10-3 Under and 9-2 Under at ANZ Stadium since 2014. Parramatta are ranked 2nd in defence but are a lowly 12th in attack to give them the 7th best differential.

Preview

A game I’m happy to stay well away from, with two teams clearly all over the place with application and result.

The Rabbits look a mess and if this had been against an opponent with any sort of decent form I’d be more than happy to take them on. Just look at their defensive offering across their last 7 games – 30, 29, 24, 20, 30, 30 and 44 at an average of leaking 30 points a game, and to think this mob won the comp 18 months ago. They have lost 3 of their last 5 and it could easily read 0/5, their coach now talks nothing but gobbledygook about their performances or attitude or alike, in my opinion he is now a dead man walking who has lost his crew and won’t be doing the job next yr.

The Eels come off a win in Darwin, possibly by default as the Titans into their 3rd consecutive road trip distant game and most likely tired of living away for 10 days offered poor resistance and terrible handling errors. As we know the Eels have their own massive problems to work through, will not make the semis, are playing with makeshift halves and right now its a guess in what mental shape they turn up one week to the next. I’m sure that sooner of later they will put the white flag up for the season but for the time being I’m happy to leave alone.

Tip the Eels with little confidence, maybe there is less expectation on them and they’ll enjoy that, Rabbits have further Origin outs and playing with little confidence.


Dragons vs Storm

+2.5 Dragons

Stats

The Dragons play host to the table topping Melbourne Storm at WIN Stadium in Wollongong in the only Saturday match of Round 15. It’s a fortuitous time for the Dragons to meet the Storm who will be without 2 of their best players in Smith and Cronk for Origin 2. Wins have proven hard to come by for the Dragons over Melbourne, who has won 5 of the previous 6 clashes. The Dragons will be aided by their home ground at WIN Stadium where they have won 5 of their last 6 and 3 of their last 4 against the Storm. They are on a short turn around but have won 5 of their last 7 at home off a 5 day preparation. Their record against a Top 8 opponent is 3 and 5, while they have won 10 of their last 11 at their suburban grounds. They are 6-7 ATS with a combined 12- 7 covering record at Kogorah and WIN Stadium since 2014. The Dragons are 10-3 Under in TMP’s, while 9 of their last 11 matches at WIN Stadium have also finished Under with only 2 of them finishing higher than 36. If the Dragons are any chance they need to overcome their inability to score 2nd half points, as they have lost their last 9 2nd halves, scoring an average of 4. They have the worst attacking record in the competition, while they are ranked 8th in attack, with only the Knights having a poorer differential. As mentioned, the Storm has a couple of key outs for this match and they have lost 5 of their last 7 without their Origin players, but they aren’t as heavily impacted as they have been in previous years. They have now won 7 straight, including their last 4 on the road and are conceding an average of just 10.46 points a game. They haven’t been positioned out of the Top 8 all season and have spent 10 weeks in the Top 4. Melbourne have covered a line in their last 6 to give them an 8-5 record ATS, while they have covered in 60% of their matches since 2014 as a road dog. Like the Dragons, the Storm also have a 10-3 Under record in TMP’s, with a 5-1 Under record away from home. They are the number 1 defensive side, conceding just 23 tries (10 fewer than the same time last year), while they have the 6th best attack. A Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in all 6 of their away games this season, while the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 8th minute in the Storm’s last 7 matches. It’s the team with the worst attack hosting the team with the best defence, the last 4 clashes have finished Under in TMP’s and with both sides in heavy favour of that outcome, the total under 34.5 looks a distinct possibility.

Preview

Dragons are without Dugan and now most likely Frizell to Origin. The Storm lose Smith and Cronk to Origin.

So we have the team sitting top of table with the best defence in the comp vs the team sitting 11th with the worst attack in the comp. Clearly the Storm are with out two key start players, but this is the least affected by Origin outs that they have been for many years only losing two players and right now they are buoyed with belief and confidence. Another key positive for them here is that last week they flogged the Roosters with Blake Green a key late out, and Harris has now played key roles at 6 and or centre this season so while not as polished or with the attacking skill of Cronk they might not lose as much as many think. The other key positive is Green, he’s a leader and he steps up in these situations, so while the headlines might read Storm playing without Origin stars I suspect a closer looks suggests that come into this game far stronger than previously.

As pointed to last week the other key issue here is the quality of their team defence. Frank Panassi the long term Storm football manage and key right hand of Bellamy was my assistant coach for two seasons when I coached rep sides at North Sydney in the 90’s, and we have often talked over the last number of years of the approach and program that Bellamy runs and his innate ability to coach defence (far far harder than it sounds). before the Storm grade or promote players on their list up to their top list, or purchase they review miles of video tape looking at the technical capabilities of a player in defence, how they tackle, technique in various situations, and so on. Then through the pre season and then during week to week preparations Bellamy consistently drills them through well through out sessions that continue to refine individual techniques, mental approach, toughness and team and positional formations and execution. He does it like no other of the last 15 years – and it delivers, you don’t average 11 points against after 14 rounds in today’s game without having done a hell of a lot of work on it and being bloody good at it (just look at their last 6 games in defence – 0, 6, 6, 14, 0 and 0). And this will take them a long long way into this game.

And talk about going from the penthouse to the basement in coaching discussions within a few sentences, leave me out on McGreggor. The Dragons struggled to just beat the Cowboys a few weeks ago at this home ground when they were without their Origin players and then when it mattered last week vs the Bulldogs rolled over meekly and conceded 34 points. They are very poorly coached in attack and can be easily frustrated and shut down by quality defence, I expect more of the same here.

I think the Storm can win outright and I certainly want to be with them with the plus start. Likely rain should only frustrate and make it harder for the Dragons against an opponent who are normally very disciplined.

Bet 2 units Storm +6.0 $1.91 William Hill


Warriors vs Roosters

-6.5 Warriors

Stats

The Warriors will be looking for 3 consecutive wins for the 1st time this season when they host the out of form Roosters at Mt Smart Stadium. The Roosters have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Warriors as well as winning the 3 previous meetings played in New Zealand, but with only 3 wins to their credit all season they are big outsiders for this match up. It’s the 1st away game in a month for the Roosters and just the 3rd time all season that they have had to fly to a venue. They have lost 6 of their last 8 distant away games and have registered just the 1 win on the road in 2015. For the 4th time this season the Roosters start as a road dog and they have won only 3 of their last 8 from that position. The Roosters are languishing in 15th spot on the ladder, with the 3rd worst attack and the 4th worst defence. They are the equal worst covering team in the competition with a 4-9 record and they have covered in only 1 of their last 6 distant/interstate matches, while interstate teams are 24-27 ATS in 2015. They are 9-4 over in TMP’s, while 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Warriors have topped 40 points. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of the last 10 meetings with the Warriors. The Warriors have more often than not gone on a winning run through the Origin period and have won 8 of their last 11 matches impacted by Origin. They have also won 3 of their last 4 at Mt Smart Stadium, with an average winning margin of more than 18 points. They are currently 9th on the ladder which is their highest position of the season. They are ranked 7th in attack but have some work to do in defence where they are ranked 14th. The Warriors are 7-6 ATS and are 8-5 covering at home since 2014 when giving up more than a converted try. In TMP’s they are 10-3 Over, with 9 of their last 10 totaling 42 or more.

Preview

Warriors rolling along for 3 wins in a row? Not sure how deep those last two wins are, Broncos were terrible and walked into a fired up Warriors desperate to perform, then a touch up job over the hapless Knights. Their last two efforts have looked much stronger, but this might be more of a test.

Roosters, well they again laid down last week and have lost 3 of their last 4. They also have a questionable long distance away road record, and a team list lacking some stability and attitude most weeks. Like the Rabbits, had they been up against someone with some more substance I’d be happy to oppose.

Warriors at home should win and cover, but leave me out.


Titans vs Eagles

-8.5 Titans

Stats

The Titans are at home against the Sea Eagles in the only match featuring 2 sides coming off a loss to close out Round 15 in Monday Night Football. After 3 consecutive away games the Titans are back at home where they have been a 50/50 proposition this year, winning 3 of 6. They will be out to address a poor home record against the Sea Eagles as they have lost 4 of the last 5 meetings played on the Gold Coast and they have also lost the last 3 meetings straight. For just the 2nd time this season they start as a home favourite but they have struggled with the weight of expectation previously, losing 7 of their last 9 as a home fav. The Titans are currently 10th on the ladder and are also ranked 10th in both attack and defence. They are 9-4 ATS and have covered in 3 of their last 5 at home when giving up a start. In TMP’s they are 7-6 Over, while their last 4 at home have all finished Under. In MNF, they have a 7-5 record at CBus Super Stadium since 2008. The Sea Eagles have now lost 5 straight and another loss this week will be the 1st time in 12 years that they have recorded 6 consecutive losses. They are currently 14th on the ladder, ranking 12th in attack and 13th in defence, with 4 wins and 9 losses. Last week was only the 3rd time that they had gone to half time with a lead, but as was the case in their previous 4 matches, they were unable to go on with it in the 2nd half. Manly is the equal worst cover team in the NRL, with a 4-9 ATS record, while they are 4 and 4 since 2014 when getting a start of more than a converted try. They are 7-6 Over in TMP’s, while they are split evenly on the road over the last 3 seasons. A Sea Eagles try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 3 clashes with the Titans who have conceded the 1st try in their past 5 matches at home. Manly has won 5 of their last 6 matches of MNF on the road.

Preview

Eagles get Lyon and Taupau back but lose Walker, to Origin and are still without  Cherry-Evans, Lawrence, Myles and Matai, four key outs and have Myles and have key attack players Tom Trbojevic and Stewart playing busted and week to week (or minute ti minute) propositions. The Titans lose Bird to Origin.

Titans return home and will have 9 day freshen up into this which are circumstances in which they preform best, also off a loss and ordinary offering last week to the Eels in Darwin where their handling errors were horrendous. The Titans have been good at bouncing back off a poor performance and are to advantage back at home with the long turn around. They have a nice balance of big physical forwards and some smarts in their halves, in particular Ash Taylor and are now starting to see some improved edge play from Hoffman and the addition of Hurrell. Unfortunately they can leak points, but unlike many of their opponents they don’t play to the scoreboard and consistently pick themselves up and are coached to play attack and consistently throw questions at the defence, which puts them right in and or winning the games that they do. I’ve been a huge rap on Henry as a coach for the last 10 years and again this year he has proven with a low budget makeshift list what a good positive attacking coach he is.

I’m happy to keep opposing the Eagles given their current difficulties, long list of key outs, having to play key players limping with injury and a mental state riddled with doubt and mounting pressure. Their last two outings are further examples of this, crumbling when it mattered to be steamrolled by the Raiders and then the Panthers, and don’t think it won’t happen again now or into the weeks to come. They have now lost their last 5 straight, have leaked 30 plus points in 4 of their last 5 losses and are on the road.

The Titans are never rolled gold good things and have a poor record as favs, and off 5 losses the Eagles at some stage here are likely to offer some desperation, but on the back of the market going up much much shorter than I marked this game I want to also be with the positive mind set and attacking approach of the Titans off a long turn around and returning home off 3 road games, and oppose a side who have key outs and mentally are clearly very fragile.

Bet 4 units Titans -4.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet BB


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 15

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 14

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 14

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 14 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-6.5 Broncos vs Raiders

+7.5 Tigers vs Rabbits

+10.5 Knights vs Warriors

+3.5 Eels vs Titans

+10.5 Roosters vs Storm

+5.5 Eagles vs Panthers

+9.5 Dragons vs Bulldogs

+0.5 Sharks vs Cowboys


NRL Round 14 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Raiders +11.5 $1.90 TabSportsbet

Bet 3 units Panthers -1.5 $1.87 Sportsbet BB

Bet 2 units Storm -4.0 $1.90 Luxbet

 

Round 15

Bet 4 units Titans -4.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet BB

Titans return home and will have 9 day freshen up into this which are circumstances in which they preform best, also off a loss and ordinary offering they will be keen to atone. Happy to keep opposing the Eagles given their current difficulties, long list of key outs, will now lose Walker, Myles and there has to be some doubt over Tom Trbojevic their best player with him currently playing with injury, and they will travel for distant road game here for which they have lost their last 3. I’m sure this line will start much longer by game time.

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Rabbits, Warriors, Titans, Storm, Panthers, Bulldogs, Cowboys


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Broncos vs Raiders

-6.5 Broncos

Stats

Round 14 kicks off with the out of form Broncos hosting the inform Raiders. Both sides come into this match with opposing form lines, the Raiders having won 3 straight for the 1st time in more than 12 months, while the Broncos are coming off 3 consecutive losses for the 1st time since 2013. The Raiders have struggled for wins at Suncorp Stadium though, recording a solitary win over the last 11 years, with Brisbane winning 7 of the previous 8 clashes at their home ground. The Raiders have also won only 2 of 6 games on the road this season. Canberra is 8-4 ATS, with a 3-3 covering record on the road. They are 9-4 Over in TMP’s, with 6 of their last 8 decided that way, while only 2 of the last 10 clashes with the Broncos have finished higher than 40 points. The Raiders have moved into 6 th spot on the ladder with the 3rd best attack, while they are 9th in defence, giving them the 5 th best differential. Brisbane comes into this match off their biggest loss of the season and just their 3rd 13+ loss from their past 40 matches. They have a much needed Bye after this match and their pre Bye record is only fair, with 8 wins from 14 matches since 2009. They have won 5 of the last 7 clashes with the Raiders and will be hoping that the home ground will provide some advantage with 20 wins from their last 24 games at home. They are 7-6 ATS with a 4-2 covering record at home. Despite suffering 4 losses from their last 5 matches, Brisbane are still ranked 2nd in attack but have slipped to 5th in defence.

Preview

Clearly having lost 4 of their last 5 the Broncos are treading water at present, they have looked tired and striggling with their workload and while returning home come off a distant away leg (NZ), short turnaround and have 6 players playing their 3rd game in 8 days. On top of looking leg weary as I have noted previously they have a significant problem at #7 with Hunt being well out of form since round 1, his kicking game poor, general play direction and enthusiasm equally poor and making some critical defensive misses – clearly a player well down on confidence.

The Raiders long term record in Brisbane is poor losing 7 of their last 8, but they also have not played here for a number of years. Their road record is also ordinary at just 2 from 6, but right now they have won their last 3 and are playing with come confidence and belief which will take you a long way into a game. They have a big middle and depth, and as we have seen if they can get rolling they can hurt you and build momentum. They also have some lazy patches in their game where they just clock off and fall away and can quickly leak two tries, but they are on the improve and as despised underdogs with no expectation on them they have nothing to lose here but give it a whirl.

Yes the Broncos are at home, and yes we all expect that they should improve, but I have also given them that benefit across the last two weeks. I just worry where fatigue is for them right now, and this assignment doesn’t get any easier up against a big physical team playing with some confidence. While I think the Broncos might get home, I can’t get this any wider that 6.5, and some of that margin is based on home and past advantage and right now I’m just not sure if that is really all there. The market 11.5 should be a significant advantage.

Bet 2 unit Raiders +11.5 $1.90 TabSportsbet

 


Tigers vs Rabbits

+7.5 Tigers

Stats

For the 2 nd time in 5 weeks the Tigers and Rabbitohs will go head to head at ANZ Stadium. The Tigers caused an upset that night to break a 6 game losing streak and they have gone on to win 3 of 5 since then. The Tigers have lost 5 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium, with their only win coming in the previous meeting with the Rabbits. They are 5 & 8 ATS with an 11-8 covering record as a home underdog since 2014, while they have covered only 50% of their matches at ANZ Stadium since 2014, producing a 9-9 result. They have conceded the 1st try of the 2 nd half in all 13 matches this season and only twice have they outscored their opponent in the 2nd half. In TMP’s they are 7-6 Over and 6-4 Over in night matches at ANZ Stadium since 2014, while only 1 of the previous 7 clashes with the Rabbitohs have totaled less than 40. A Tigers try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 3 clashes with the Rabbitohs and in the last 2 meetings the 1st try scorer of the match has been the Tigers leading try scorer in James Tedesco (10) who has scored 6 tries from his last 6 matches against the Bunnies. A win for the Tigers will give them 2 wins in a season over the Rabbits for the 1st time since 2008. The Rabbits are on a short turn around after going down in the West to the Titans in a Golden Point thriller. They have lost 5 of 7 games in the week following their trip to Perth and they have also lost their last 4 matches on a 5 day preparation. After spending the 1st 7 weeks inside the Top 8, the Rabbitohs have been positioned in the bottom half of the ladder for the last 6 weeks. They are 5 and 7 at the half way mark, with a 3-3 record as an away side, while they are ranked 6th in attack and 11th in defence. The Rabbits are 5-7 ATS with a 13-11 record when giving up a start on the road since 2014. They have won 10 of 16 at ANZ Stadium since last season, covering a line in only 6 of those, while they are split evenly in TMP’s at the ground during that time. They are 8- 4 Over season to date, with 5 of their last 6 topping 42 points. A winning margin of 13+ has been the result in 6 of the previous 8 clashes between these sides.

Preview

Two teams on short back ups, Rabbits on return trip from Perth and form lines we could shoot multiple holes through.

I just can’t trust the Tigers, clearly all the internal shit going on there is a distraction and they just have no mental resolve week in week out. Last week they played the team sitting 15th who had only won twice, and had key outs, yet you would have sworn this scenario was in reverse so meek was the offering from the Tigers. When last under pressure off a losing run they stood up with am impressive win against the Rabbits but I have just as much confidence now as I did then of that happening here. Unlike many teams where we can watch and review their actual form with this mob we are actually guessing what’s going on in their head…

The Rabbits were better last week but still playing like a mid table team with way too many errors in their game, and still leaking points. Some of the tweaks they have made across their backline have been positive but long gone is their ability of recent past years to defensively shut down teams.

Tipping Rabbits, not a game to play with, if there was any angle it would be total points over as both sides consistently leak points.


Knights vs Warriors

+10.5 Knights

Stats

The Knights take on the Warriors at Hunter Stadium to kick off Super Saturday. The Warriors have a very good record over the Knights, winning 12 of the previous 16 clashes and will be looking for back to back wins for only the 2nd time this season. They will need to address a poor record on the road as they have lost 4 of 6 as the away side this season and 8 of their last 10 long term. They are 5-7 ATS with a 2-4 record on the road, while they are a poor 11-19 when covering on the road since 2014. Only on 3 occasions this season have Warriors matches finished Under, giving them a 9-3 Over result and only 1 of the previous 7 clashes with the Knights have totaled less than 40. The Warriors have moved from 14th to 12th on the ladder, they are ranked 8th in attack, but they are ranked a lowly 14th in defence. The Knights have now lost 7 in a row and another loss this week will make it 8 straight for only the 2nd time in their history. They have been anchored in 16th spot for the last 5 weeks and haven’t been positioned higher than 14th all season. They are 5 & 8 ATS, with a 3-2 record at home, while they have covered in 13 of their last 15 as a home underdog. Like the Warriors, the Knights also favour the Overs, producing a 7-6 result, while they are 12-6 Over in day games at home since 2014. The Knights have conceded the 1st try of the match in 11 of their 13 matches and they have conceded the last try in 8 of their last 9. A winning margin of 1-12 points has been the result in 8 of the last 11 meetings. Looks like there could be plenty of points on offer but the set point of 48 looks about right

Preview

Another car crash of a game. Knights have lost 7 straight, are 1 from 13, return home and are conceding 34 points a week… Oh, and the Warriors off numerous “truth sessions” pulled their best performance for 12 months out of their backside last week to thump the Broncos, yet are poor distant travelers and we never know when they are likely to put back to back offerings together.

If there is any substance to the Warriors form then they win, but leave me out of a 10 to 12 point line either way. Looks plenty of points, but high 40’s as a total is also significant risk.


Eels vs Titans

+3.5 Eels

Stats

For the 3rd straight year, the Eels will take a home game to TIO Stadium in Darwin. It’s proven a fruitful exercise to this point with the Eels winning their 2 previous matches played in the NT. They have had the week off but that hasn’t been a benefit in recent seasons as they have lost 10 of their last 11 when coming off the Bye. They are also facing an opponent where wins in recent clashes have been hard to come by with the Titans winning 5 of the last 6 meetings, while the Titans have found some form and are currently on a 3 game winning streak. After winning 5 of their 1st 7, the Eels have now lost 3 of their last 5. They are split 6-6 ATS, with a 3-4 record as the home team. They are 9-3 Under Over and only 1 of their 12 matches has finished higher than 42 points. Only once in their last 6 matches have they led at half time and they have also conceded the 1st try of the match in 5 of their last 6. 5 of their last 6 matches have been decided by a margin of 1-12 points and this has also been the margin on 4 of the previous 6 meetings with the Titans. The Eels have conceded just 1 try through their middle 3 rd this season, compared to 13 tries at the same time in 2015, while no side has scored more tries through the middle than the Titans with 17. The Titans will have clocked up plenty of frequent flyer miles by the time they land in Darwin after returning from Perth last weekend. It’s their 3rd game in a month where they have been on the road, after playing Penrith prior to having their 1st Bye. A win over the Eels will make it 4 straight victories for the Titans for only the 2nd time in 6 seasons. They are 3 and 3 as the away side and a league best 5 and 1 ATS on the road. Over the last 3 seasons they have an 18-10 ATS record when travelling interstate, while their current ATS record is 9-3. The Titans are 6-3 Over in TMP’s with 5 of those Overs results coming from 6 away games. A Titans try has been the 1 st scoring play in 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Eels, while Ryan James and Zeb Taia are the leading try scorers for the Titans with 5 each. 8 of the Titans last 10 matches have been decided by single figures.

Preview

Played in Darwin.

Another where we are guessing what sort of mental state the Eels are in. I had expected much more hunger through recent weeks, they copped some key in game injuries last game but were still poor when nearly rolled by the Knights. I think now they are starting to look more and more like a team who have mentally put the white flag up for the season. They are now without Foran and Paulo long term, have issues with Norman, on watch now for me.

Love the Titans and what they are doing. They just turn up where ever it is and have a go, only once rolling over this year. What is new here for them tho is expectation and starting favs (deservedly). I think they win, and might well do so by 10 or more points, but betting into a game in Darwin off a road trip out of Perth is not something I want to do.


Roosters vs Storm

+10.5 Roosters

Stats

The Roosters play host to the Melbourne Storm at Allianz Stadium to close out Super Saturday in 1 of only 2 matches where both sides recorded victories in Round 13. The Storm holds a slight advantage head to head over the Roosters with 16 wins to 14, while things have been split evenly since 2010 with both sides recording 5 wins a piece. Melbourne comes into this match off the back of 6 consecutive victories to sit in 2nd spot on the ladder. They have spent 9 weeks in the Top 4 and are 1 of only 4 sides that haven’t been out of the Top 8. They are still fine tuning their attack to currently rank 7th, but it’s their defensive efforts that has then humming along, conceding an average of 11.3 points a game, which seems them sitting on the top of the defensive standings. The Storm is 7-5 ATS, which includes covering in their last 5, while they have covered in 9 of their last 12 when giving up 6 points or less with 6 of those 9 coming on the road. They are now the number 1 ranked side in TMP’s for Unders results, with a 9-3 record, including their 5 previous away games where none of those have finished above 38. A Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in all 5 of their games on the road and in their last 6 matches the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 8th minute. Suliasa Vunivalu is Melbourne’s top try scorer with 8 tries from 6 appearances, while Cooper Cronk ranks 2nd with 7. Despite registering their 3rd win of the season last week, the Roosters remain in 15th spot for the 5th straight week. They are ranked 12th in attack and 13th in defence with the 11th ranked differential. They come into this match having lost all 4 of their previous matches against a Top 8 opponent by an average of almost 30 points a game and in their 9 losses this season they have conceded 20 points or more in all of them. They are 4-8 ATS, with 3 of their 4 covers coming in matches played at Allianz Stadium. In TMP’s they are 8-4 in favour of the Overs, while the last 4 clashes with the Storm have totaled 38 or less. In top try scorer rankings, Latrell Mitchell leads the way for the Roosters with 8, while Blake Ferguson comes in 2nd with 7.

Preview

Roosters now lose Napa, Mitchell, have doubts over Lui and Pearce and are without Cordner. They come through a weak game / win against a listless Tigers offering into a top of table side.

Storm have won 6 straight and defensively have been outstanding – once again. I shall write some notes on this over the coming weeks, but Bellamy is the best defensive coach on teh modern era, and since Warren Ryan. Year after year he recycles his list yet more often than not produces a top 4 team, but importantly year after year they are in the top few defensively, always conceding somewhere around 10 to 12 points on average (and right now this is 11.3). Across their last 5 games in D it reads 6, 6, 14, 0 and 0 – speaks for itself.

Storm are also one of the most professional road teams, this is 1st spot vs 15th, into Origin and about to again be without their key stars this looks a game they should be all over.

Bet 2 units Storm -4.0 $1.90 Luxbet


Eagles vs Panthers

+5.5 Eagles

Stats

The Panthers travel to Brookvale Oval to take on the Sea Eagles in the only Sunday match of the Round. The Panthers have won 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Sea Eagles, including 2 of the last 5 meetings played at Brookvale Oval. They are on the road for the 2nd consecutive week while the Sea Eagles are back at Brookvale for the 1st time in 5 weeks. The Panthers are 11th on the ladder and also rank 11th in attack, while they are ranked 8th in defence. They are coming off back to back losses for the 1st time since Round 2 as well as their biggest loss of the season in an 18 point loss to Melbourne. Penrith are 7-5 ATS and have covered the line in their last 5 meetings with the Sea Eagles. They are 7-5 Under in TMP’s with a 5-1 Under record on the road, while 8 of the last 11 clashes with Manly have totaled 38 points or less. In 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Sea Eagles the winning margin has been by 1-12 and this has also been the margin result in 11 of the Panthers 12 matches this season. Manly come into this match off the back of 4 consecutive losses and continue to lose key players through injury and will be without at least half a dozen regulars this week. They have lost 4 from 5 at what was formally known as Fortress Brookvale to be languishing in 13th spot. They are ranked a lowly 14th in attack, while they are 12th in defence. They are 4-8 ATS and have covered in only 1 of their 6 home games. In TMP’s they are 7-5 Under, with a 4-1 Under record at Brookvale Oval. Only twice this season have they led at half time and only the Knights have scored fewer 1st half points than the Sea Eagles. A Sea Eagles try has been the 1st scoring play in 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Panthers played at Brookvale Oval.

Preview

Eagles look to have some major injury issues and key outs on the back of their losing run. Cherry-Evans, Lyon, Matai, Lawrence all now confirmed outs while there are likely doubts over some others and the Eagles are now fielding a significantly weakened list. They return home, but interestingly they have now lost 4 of their last 5 here at what had traditionally been a stronghold home advantage.

Panthers come off two losses but through form games that read well vs Titans (who keep winning) and Storm (top of table). Griffin has made some key changes through recent weeks as he looks to shake up attitude and performance and get this team back winning. Their recent record at Brookvale is ok, they have some ball play and youthful talent, and certainly right now a stronger list with more talent and depth than on paper their opponents.

We are on here at the right position, my workings are that the Panthers have too stronger a list across the 80 minutes and win.

Bet 3 units Panthers -1.5 $1.87 Sportsbet BB


Dragons vs Bulldogs

+9.5 Dragons

Stats

The Dragons play host to the Bulldogs at ANZ Stadium in a rematch of last year’s Qualifying Final. The Bulldogs were Golden Point winners on that occasion which handed the Dragons their 7th loss from the last 8 clashes with the Bulldogs. The Dragons have had the week off but they have only won 3 of their last 8 matches when coming off the Bye, while they have also lost 6 of their last 8 matches played at ANZ Stadium. After 12 matches the Dragons have won 6 and lost 6 to sit just outside the 8 in 9th spot. They have the worst attacking record in the competition, while they are ranked 7th in defence. The Dragons remain as the only side yet to win a 2nd half this season and they half failed to score a 2nd half try in more than half of their matches, giving them a 2nd half average of less than 4 points. The Dragons have been great front runners, winning 6 from 6 with a half time lead, but they have lost 6 from 6 when trailing at the break. They are split evenly ATS with a 6-6 result, while they have also been a fifty-fifty proposition when covering at ANZ Stadium, producing a 5-5 result since 2014. Their TMP results are 10-2 in favour of the Under, while 7 of the last 9 clashes with the Bulldogs at ANZ Stadium have also finished Under. After a win loss sequence that stretched 8 weeks, the Dogs recorded 2 consecutive wins before dropping their last 2 matches. They have led at half time in their past 8 games but have been run down in 4 of them and in their last 2 they have conceded a combined 2nd half total of 32 points while scoring just 6. The Dogs have dropped to 7 th which is their lowest position on the ladder season to date, while they are ranked 5th in attack and 6th in defence. They have won 10 of their last 14 matches at ANZ Stadium but have covered a line in only 8 of those. They are 5-8 ATS with a 9-11 covering record from their last 20 matches as a favourite. In TMP’s they are 7-6 Under and are 6-1 Under off back to back losses since 2014. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 7 of the previous 8 meetings with the Dragons who have conceded 1st points in 11 of their last 15 at ANZ Stadium. The side that has scored the 1st try of the match has gone on to win 14 of the last 15 clashes and that’s also been the same result for the half time leader.

Preview

Not a game I want to have an interest in, but if pushed I’d be with the Bulldogs to cover.

Bulldogs have been run down at their last few late in each game but I think that form has much more strength behind it than their opponents. They still have issues with strong leadership and game direction at #7 and #6, but they have been prepared to shift the ball and attack far more through the last 4 weeks and do have points in them. Whereas the Dragons struggle with their attack, av just 11 points a game and can be shut down with quality defence, which against lower table sides the Bulldogs have an advantage.

Bulldogs to win, if you are betting I have them covering the line, but I shall be staying out.


Sharks vs Cowboys

+0.5 Sharks

Stats

It’s 1st versus 3rd when the Sharks host the Cowboys to close out Round 14 in what is clearly the match of the Round. The Sharks hold the overall advantage both head to head and at the ground, although the Cowboys have reduced the deficit in recent seasons, winning 9 of the previous 13 clashes, which includes 4 of the last 5 encounters at Shark Park. The Sharks have now won 9 in a row and if they can defeat the Cowboys it will be only the 2nd time in 28 years that they have recorded 10 consecutive victories. They sit on top of the ladder for the 3rd week in a row with the 4th best attack, while they are ranked equal 3rd in defence with the Cowboys, giving them the 3rd best differential. They remain undefeated at home in 2016, winning 6 from 6 and have won 12 of their last 15 dating back to Round 6 in 2015. 5 of their last 6 wins at home have been by 8 points or less, while single figures have decided 4 of the last 7 clashes with the Cowboys. They are 8-4 ATS with a 9-9 covering record as a home side since last year, while they have covered a line in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Cowboys. Cronulla are split evenly in TMP’s producing a 6-6 result, while they are 14-5 Under when playing at home under lights since 2014. It’s last to first for the Cowboys after accounting for the Knights last week and facing the top of the table Sharks this week. They have won 9 of 13 to hold down 3rd spot and at the half way mark they have only been positioned out of the Top 4 on 3 occasions. As mentioned they are ranked equal 3rd in defence, while they sit at the top of both rankings in attack and differential. No side has scored more 2nd half points than the Cowboys and they still remain as the only side yet to be outscored in the 2nd half. They are 8-5 ATS with a 3-3 covering record on the road. The Cowboys are in slight favour of the Overs in TMP’s, with a 7-6 result, while the previous 13 clashes with the Sharks at Shark Park have totaled 40 points or more. The Cowboys have scored the 1st points of the match in 8 of the last 10 encounters with the Sharks. In FTS calculations consider Valentine Holmes who has bagged 11 tries, while Feki and Barba have both scored 8 each with Barba scoring the 1st try of the match on 3 occasions. For the Cowboys Kyle Feldt leads the way with 9, while Gavin Cooper has crossed 8 times and with 4 of those he has been the 1st try scorer of the match. These 2 teams have used fewer players than any other sides in the competition to this point, with the Sharks using 19, while the Cowboys have used 22.

Preview

Excellent clash and I’m happy to just watch, enjoy and learn.

Sharks have won their last 9 and 6 from 6 at home. They have good balance across their list, halves in form, skill and class finishing on the edges. Some what flat last week but showed some quality to get themselves out and winning late. I have no knock for them right now.

Cowboys are quality, have won 4 of their last 5 at this ground and good recent record over Sharks including touching them up when it mattered in a semi final late last yr. I just like the way the Cows aim up for these big games this year, and make a habit of lifting and doing what ever is required to more often than not win.

Even money game for mine, looks very little between them, slight lean to Cowboys but a game that should teach us all more.


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 14

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 13

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 13

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 13 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-6.5 Raiders vs Eagles

+5.5 Warriors vs Broncos

-18.5 Cowboys vs Knights

-2.5 Storm vs Panthers

-5.5 Roosters vs Tigers

-3.5 Rabbits vs Titans

+2.5 Bulldogs vs Sharks

 


NRL Round 13 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 1 unit Raiders -5.5 $1.91 Sportsbet

Bet 1 units Cowboys-Knights Under 44.0 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Storm-Panthers Under 38.5 $1.90 Sportsbet  BB

Bet 1 unit Tigers +7.5 $1.91 Sportsbet

Bet 1 units Bulldogs-Sharks Under 36.5 $1.91 Pinnacle

Round 14

Bet 3 units Panthers -1.5 $1.87 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Storm -4.0 $1.90 Luxbet / Crownbet

 

Eagles look to have some major injury issues and key outs on the back of their losing run. Matai has been out for some weeks with a neck injury that may now require surgery, now out of last last Friday night they have lost Lawrence up front (likely for season), Cherry-Evans and Lyon likely for a number of weeks and have some doubt over Buhrer and Brown. Panthers come off two losses but through form games that read well vs Titans (who keep winning) and Storm (top of table). I expect this line will move much further through the coming days.

Roosters now lose Napa, Mitchell, have doubts over Lui and are without Cordner. Storm have won 6 straight, defensively very tight, this is 1st vs 15th and although Storm on the road -4 is very low.

 

Notes – One of the more difficult weeks of the season, days after Origin and final team lists still to be confirmed, plus fatigue across many key players let alone a bloody difficult week of match ups to boot. Sydney is also forecast for plenty of rain, while we have a game in Perth (Rabbits vs Titans). Also not a week for Best Bets.

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Raiders, Broncos, Cowboys, Storm, Tigers, Titans, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Raiders vs Eagles

-6.5 Raiders

Stats

Sea Eagles travel to the Nation’s Capital to take on the Raiders in Friday Night Football to kick off Round 13. Manly holds a distinct advantage over the Raiders, winning 13 of the last 16 clashes and it’s also been 12 years since the Raiders last defeated the Sea Eagles at GIO Stadium. The Sea Eagles have had the week off but their record post Bye is a poor one, having lost 5 of their last 7, while the Raiders will be looking for 3 straight wins for the 1st time in more than 12 months. Manly have won 3 of their last 4 on the road but have lost 7 of their last 8 games of FNF as the away side and come into this match off of 3 straight losses. They are 4-7 ATS and have a 13-16 covering record on the road since 2014. In TMP’s they are 7-4 Under, while FNF is also in favour of the Under producing a 9-3 result season to date. A Manly try has been the 1st scoring play in 6 of the previous 7 clashes with the Raiders who have conceded the 1st try in 5 of their last 7. FNF in Canberra is a rarity for the Raiders and this week will be just the 4th time in 5 seasons that they have featured in such a game. Their come from behind victory against the Dogs gave them back to back wins for the 1 st time since Round 2 as well as some much needed momentum. They are 4 and 2 at home with a 3-1 home record against sides currently out of the 8. In their last 5 games, the Raiders have scored a combined total of 100 points in their 2nd halves, while conceding just 35. They are 7-4 ATS and have covered in the previous 2 clashes with the Sea Eagles. The Raiders continue to be an Overs side producing an 8-4 Overs result after 12 Rounds, while they are 5-1 Over at home and the last 4 clashes with Manly have all finished Over with all 4 totaling 45 points or more at an average of 56.

Preview

Eagles travel to Canberra for a cold possibly dam Friday night away game and are likely to be without Matai, Myles and have Stewart as a week to week proposition with his hamstring issues. They come off a bye week and 3 straight losses conceding 20 to 30 points at each of these last 3 games.

Raiders have won two straight off the back of their come from behind late win last weekend over the Bulldogs at home, they have a short turn around but stay based in Canberra and have a full list to pick from with more the matter of who is left out than included. The competition for places, especially in their forward line up has to be a nice positive and motivation for them right now.

The key to this game is the middle third (and how this is played) where the Raiders have a distinct advantage. They have size and muscle and a 9 man forward offering that can just keep pounding you play after play, while they have also developed two quality powerful edge running backs in Leilua and Rapana to smash you on the Raiders right edge – interestingly enough here matching up against the Eagles weaker defensive edge should Matai not play. The Eagles have consistently shown a weakness through their middle, they don’t have the right forwards or enough of them to aim up here against the bigger sides and consistently end up on the back foot.

The Raiders game starts at and off #9, if they get themselves moving and rolling forward they can quickly build momentum, and then hurt you. It took them a long time to get themselves going last week, and they can be prone to inconsistency in attitude, but I think the come from behind effort last Sunday and more so the way they did it on the back of their big men up front will give them some further confidence and belief here. They have significant advantage with an up tempo big rolling forward pack here, if they use this properly then I expect they win and cover.

Bet 1 unit Raiders -5.5 $1.91 Sportsbet


Warriors vs Broncos

+5.5 Warriors

Stats

The Warriors host the Broncos kick off Super Saturday from Mt Smart Stadium. The Broncos have won the previous 3 clashes with the Warriors, including their last start at Mt Smart Stadium but that was their only win from the last 4 visits to the ground. They have now lost 3 of their last 4 and another loss this week will make it 3 straight losses for the 1st time since the return of Wayne Bennett. They are 7-5 ATS with a 3-3 covering record on the road, while they have covered the line in the last 3 meetings with the Warriors. They are 8-4 Under in TMP’s and 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Warriors have also finished Under. Brisbane has slipped to 3rd on the ladder but are ranked 1st in attack, while they sit 2nd in defence. 3 of their 4 losses this season have been by a single point, the other loss was by 2 points. The Warriors have had the week off which has been beneficial in recent seasons as they have won their last 7 when coming off a Bye. Like the Broncos, the Warriors have also lost 3 of their last 4 and are looking down the barrel at 3 straight defeats for the 2nd time this season. They have won only 2 of their past 9 games at home and they have also lost their last 5 when starting as a home underdog. They have trailed at half time on 7 occasions this season and only once have they been able to overcome a half time deficit. The Warriors sit in 14th spot with the 3rd worst defence, while they are ranked 11th in attack. They are 4-7 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 4 at home when getting a start. In TMP’s they are 8-3 Over, with 3 of their last 4 at home totaling 50 or more. In 6 of the last 8 clashes the winning margin has been by 1-12 points, which includes the last 4 clashes at Mt Smart Stadium, while the team to score the 1st points has gone on to win 9 of the previous 11 meetings.

Preview

Both sides have lost 3 of their last 4 into this, while the Broncos are likely to rest Gillett, Oates and possibly Parker. The Warriors again reverted to rubbish two weeks ago and have since had supposed internal meetings, honesty sessions and finger pointing to try and right what is already a terrible low season.

The game is guess work. Warriors are at home but right now we have no idea what application they turn up with, or for how long. Broncos last 3 halves have been flat and they have likely key outs, possible fatigue and are away. Broncos come off 2 losses, I’d sooner want to side with them to be applying themselves to want to win here but its a game I want to stay clear of.


Cowboys vs Knights

-18.5 Cowboys

Stats

It’s the reigning Premiers against the wooden spoon favourites in what shapes as a 1 sided affair for game 2 of Super Saturday. The Cowboys have a healthy recent head to head record over the Knights, recording 6 wins from the last 9 meetings and their record at home is even stronger, having won 5 of the last 7 meetings with the Knights played at 1300SMILES Stadium. The Cowboys have won 27 of their past 32 matches at home and are undefeated at home this season, winning 6 from 6. They are 7-5 ATS, with a 4-2 covering record at home, while they have covered in 8 of 11 at home when giving up a double digit advantage. Home teams giving up a double digit start have a 40-34 covering record since 2014. They are split evenly in TMP’s, while 9 of their last 12 at home have finished Over. The Cowboys have scored the opening try of the match in 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Knights and in all 6 matches at home in 2016. The Knights have lost 15 of their last 17 matches on the road and are yet to win an away game this season, losing 7 from 7. They are on a short turn around and have lost their last 4 off a 5 day preparation. They have conceded an average of 32 points a game and only once this season have they scored more than 18 points. Newcastle is 5-7 ATS and has covered a line in only 3 of their last 10 on the road when given a double digit start. The Knights are also split evenly in TMP’s, while 4 of their last 5 have totaled 38 points or less. Only once this season has a Knights try been the 1st scoring play and they have conceded the last try in their last 8.

Preview

The key unknown until an hour before game time is if Thurston, Morgan, O’Neill, Scott and Tamou play. I would expect after head knocks Morgan won’t and O’Neill would be doubtful, Thurston is clearly carrying a hip injury and has to be some doubt (but he is a tough bugger who always likes to back up) while it would be a matter of how the two big fellers pull up. Given all of this we are then guessing.

The Knights were very plucky last Monday night in a narrow home loss but have been poor when traveling and this is a long distant away game, and they have a young team still gaining experience with all of this. They also have a further change at #6.

I am hearing mid Saturday that Cows now likely to have outs, plus some rain may well play an influence, happy to have a small interest on the total under a high mark.

Bet 1 units Cowboys-Knights Under 44.0 $1.90 Sportsbet


Storm vs Panthers

-2.5 Storm

Stats

The final match of Super Saturday sees the Melbourne Storm play host to the Panthers of Penrith. History shows that the Melbourne Storm has won 15 of the previous 16 clashes with the Panthers who have gone 11 years without recording a victory over the Storm in Melbourne. Both sides are coming off the Bye and both sides have produced poor results in recent times after the week off, the Storm has lost 6 of their last 7, while the Panthers have lost 7 of their last 9 post Bye. The Storm has also struggled for wins in matches straight after an Origin game, losing 6 of their last 7. The Panthers are still looking for their 1st win at AAMI Park and are 1 of 4 sides that have never won a game at the ground. Penrith are in 9th place on the ladder, with 5 wins and 6 losses, they are ranked 10th in attack and 7th in defence. They are 7-4 ATS with a 4-1 covering record on the road. The Panthers are 6-5 Under in TMP’s, with a 4-1 Under record as an away side. In 9 of the previous 12 clashes with the Storm the TMP’s have also finished Under. The Storm has now recorded 5 consecutive wins to comfortably sit in 2nd place. They are ranked 6th in attack and currently have the best defensive record in the comp. They are yet to be beaten by a side sitting lower than 5th position and have suffered just 1 loss at home this season. They are 6-5 ATS and have covered in the previous 3 clashes with the Panthers. Like the Panthers, the Storm also favour the Unders in TMP’s, producing a 9-2 result, with only 1 of their past 9 games finishing higher than 38 points. A Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Panthers.

Preview

Smith is expected to play for Storm and some suggestions that Cronk may also do the same. Panthers are likely to have both Moylan and Mansour playing and have Cartwright back.

Looks a good game, the Storm well favoured at home and are 9 of 11 and sit top of table. They have won their last 5 but the best of this has been winning the last 3 on the road and notably wins over Cowboys and Eels conceding just 3 tries. Typical of Bellamy he has made defence the mainstay of their game and they are conceding just 11 points a game, they love an arm wrestle and have composure going set for set with any team in close games led by the experience of Smith.

The Panthers are 5 from 11 and only 2 from 5 when on the road, and they are into a tough away venue here. They offer very much a roller coaster ride through most games winning or losing by the barest of margins and only once have they closed out a game with a comfortable win (Warriors). This will be the toughest test they have faced for some time up against a quality defending top of the table side who will be well prepared (defensively) for their mid field ball play and off load game.

With rain forecast (90%) and likely wet and dam conditions this looks very much like a tough close physical arm wrestle. Both sides come off a bye and should be well prepared, with Smith and possibly Cronk likely to play I can’t go past the Storm at home, but a damp night game with a short line certainly suits a total under position with it set at 38.5.

Bet 2 units Storm-Panthers Under 38.5 $1.90 Sportsbet


Roosters vs Tigers

-5.5 Roosters

Stats

The 15th placed Roosters play host to the 13th placed Tigers in what shapes as an uninspiring match up with 2 sides who desperately need the 2 points. The Roosters have won 11 of the last 12 clashes with the Tigers and it’s now 5 years since the Tigers last beat the Roosters, with the Tri-Colours winning the last 7 encounters and all 7 wins have been comprehensive as they have all been by a margin of 13+ with an average margin of 30. The Roosters had lost 4 of 5 heading into their Bye, but they have won 5 of their last 6 when coming off a Bye week. They have a poor ATS record, covering in just 3 of 11, but have covered the line in the previous 6 clashes with the Tigers. They favour the Overs in TMP’s, producing a 7-4 result, while 6 of the previous 7 clashes with the Tigers have totaled 40 or more, with an average of 53. The Roosters have scored both the 1st try of the match and of the 2nd half in the last 6 meetings with the Tigers. Look to Daniel Tupou as FTS as he has scored 11 tries from last 7 games against the Tigers and has been the 1st try scorer of the match in 3 of the last 4 clashes. The Tigers come into this match after causing the biggest upset of the season when they defeated the Broncos to give them back to back wins for the 1st time since Round 2. They have now won 3 of their last 4 but they have lost 9 of their last 10 at Allianz Stadium. They are 5-7 ATS and since 2014 they are 10-16 when starting as a road dog. They are split evenly in TMP’s, with their last 3 going Under, while 6 of their last 8 at Allianz Stadium have also finished Under. The Tigers have trailed the Roosters at half time in the previous 9 clashes, scoring an average of just 2 1st half points.

Preview

Late key changes here with Cordner and Pearce now confirmed outs for Roosters and Farah to be rested by Tigers. Game likely to be played in / on wet conditions.

Tigers named possibly their strongest list this season with Tedesco and Woods back. They have now won their last two, questionable depth in that with ordinary offering when 8 point home winners over the Knights and then 1 point winners over a depleted and flat Broncos offering. But they are much better in the middle with Elijah Taylor in quality form and playing for his future, Woods back up front and the classy skill of Tedesco at the back. Their record when out of Sydney away is shocking so they should have taken some positive confidence out of last Fridays win in Brisbane, but consistency of attitude and application week in week out is not a strength.

I had the Tigers rated with some advantage here prior to their late outs, and two key ones they are. Cordner was the best NSW player last Wednesday and through recent weeks has been one of the few forwards in this team in any sort of quality form. Pearce clearly an experienced playmaker. The Roosters have won just 2 of 11 and we are now way past it being just a bad start to the season and injury issues, clearly in the background here there are attitude, ego and unity issues. They handed the Dragons the Anzac Day game on a platter of errors, rolled through a poor Knights away offering and have then again lost their last two with meek offerings. My mail through recent days is that a number of the players were out till 4am at the casino on the Gold Coast the morning of their upset loss to the Titans, which just reeks of ego and shit attitude.

Tigers get their chance here, especially now with the key team changes. The market position available till yesterday should be an advantage.

Bet 1 unit Tigers +7.5 $1.91 Sportsbet


Rabbits vs Titans

-3.5 Rabbits

Stats

A home game for the Rabbitohs that will be played at NIB Stadium in Perth. It’s the 8th consecutive year that the Bunnies have taken a home game to the West and their record at the ground is currently 5 wins and 2 losses. This is another game featuring 2 sides off a freshen up and the week off has had very different effects on these 2 sides, with the Rabbitohs winning 9 of their last 11 and the Titans losing 10 of their last 12 when coming off the Bye. The Rabbits have won 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Titans and will be looking to record 3 straight wins for the 1st time this season after stringing back to back wins together as they headed into their week off. They are 5- 6 ATS and have covered in only 8 of their last 18 when favoured by more than 4. Their TMP record is 7-4 in favour of the Overs and they are 8-5 Over in day games since 2014. A Rabbitohs try has been the 1st scoring play in 7 of the last 9 meetings with the Titans as well as in 6 of their last 7 matches played at NIB Stadium, while no side has conceded the 1st try more than the Titans this season (9 of 11). The Titans come into this match in a similar position to the Rabbits, winning their last 2 and looking for 3 consecutive victories for the 1st time this season. They have been the most successful side ATS to this point, covering in 8 of 11, including their last 4 games on the road. They slightly favour the Overs in TMP’s, with a 6-5 Over Under result and they are 4-1 Over on the road with all 5 matches totaling 41 points or more. In the 9 games where the Titans have conceded the 1st try this season, the try has been scored by the 8th minute in 8 of them. Only twice this season have the Titans led at half time and they have also led at the break on only 2 occasions from the last 10 meetings with the Rabbitohs.

Preview


Bulldogs vs Sharks

+2.5 Bulldogs

Stats

The Bulldogs host the Sharks at ANZ Stadium to close out Round 13. The Dogs have won 8 of the last 10 clashes with the ladder leaders, including 4 of the previous 5 meetings at ANZ Stadium. The Sharks caused a major upset when they last met the Dogs but they have strangely opened as the outsider for this clash. The Sharks won 8 consecutive matches before their Bye but will the week off halt their momentum? Their record after the week off is a poor one, losing 10 of their last 13, with an average losing margin of more than 20 points. They will also need to overcome a poor record at ANZ Stadium where they have lost 7 of their past 8 matches. The Sharks are 7-4 ATS with a 4-1 covering record on the road. They are 6-5 Under in TMP’s and have had Unders results in all 4 of their night matches in 2016. Cronulla has scored the 1st try of the match in their last 7 straight and 9 of their 11 games season to date. The Bulldogs have proved themselves to be consistently inconsistent after going down to the Raiders last week. They are 7-5 after 12 Rounds and yet they haven’t been out of the Top 8 all season and are still to record back to back losses. They have however, lost 4 of their last 5 against a Top 8 opponent. They have won 8 of their last 10 at ANZ Stadium but have covered in only 3 of their last 7 at the ground. Their ATS numbers are 5-7, while their covering record at ANZ Stadium is 17-18 dating back to 2014. They are 7-5 Under in TMP’s and 4-1 Under against the Top 8. The Dogs have won 7 of their last 9 games of MNF, including 4 of their last 5 at ANZ Stadium, while the Sharks have a diabolical record on the road in the Monday fixture, losing 13 straight, with their last win coming way back in 2008. This game screams for the Under, with the 7 of the last 8 H2H going Under, both sides favouring the Under, MNF producing a 9-3 Under result (13-4 dating back to last year) and a likely wet track, the TMP’s of less than 36.5 looks a likely result.

Preview

The deluge of wet weather into Sydney across the weekend and the face that this ground (Homebush) has seen plenty of traffic across the last week including the soccer game last Saturday night is an additional and helpful factor pointing this game to being a low scoring tight game and likely under result.

The Sharks have won 8 straight but have a poor record off a bye and at the ground. But they are rolling along nicely on the back of a well balanced list, strong in the middle, smart halves and skillful finishing on the edges. Off the week off and their Origin players having plenty of rest since last Wednesday they have no excuse here.

Bulldogs were swamped late last week by the Raiders, and faltered when the forward momentum got going. They get 3 key ins back from Origin but lose Eastwood.

Should be a very good physical match up in the forwards here, and aided with a wet track we should see another arm wrestle and tight contest. The key to low scores in conditions like this is in having two sides who generally defend strongly and these two teams do, and these two teams are in the top 6 at present for defence. Monday night games strongly favour low scoring results as it is the second pick tv game of the round and so more often than not we see top of table match ups, Monday night games have been under 12 of the last 15. H2H 7 of the last 8 contests have been under 38, then add to that the wet conditions.

Favour the Sharks and some of the quality behind what they have been doing through their winning roll. But with another wet track, night game, known slippery ground and a short line conditions certainly suit a total under position.

Bet 1 units Bulldogs-Sharks Under 36.5 $1.91 Pinnacle


 


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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 13

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 1 Preview

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NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 1 Preview

 


Origin 2016 – Game 1


 

Origin 2016 – Game 1 Recommended Bets

 

NSW H2H $1.85

NSW 1-12 $2.70

Total Points Under 31.5

Man of the Match: Boyd Cordner $23

The above bets are the favoured bet types MrG has recommended for this game.

 

NSW vs QLD

Homebush

Stats

The Blues have won four of last six encounters with the Maroons that have been played at ANZ Stadium and they have also recorded six wins from the previous eight Origin openers played at the ground. The Maroons have however, won “Game 1” in five of the last seven series and have a much improved record at ANZ Stadium, recording six wins to five against the Blues since 2008. A winning margin of 1-12 points has been the result in eighteen of the last twenty two Origins and also in the last twelve series openers, while the last fourteen Origin’s played at ANZ Stadium have been decided by ten points or less. NSW have been first to score in “Game 1” in five of the last eight games with four tries and a penalty goal, while Queensland has scored the last try of the match in nine of the last ten series openers.

A winger or centre has been the first try scorer in seven of the last ten matches to open an Origin series. Nine of the last fifteen matches have had total match points of 28 or less. When a try has been the first scoring play, the team that scored the try has gone on to win the match on seventeen of the last twenty three occasions. Jonathon Thurston is in his twelfth straight year of Origin and has claimed five “Man of the Match” awards to sit in outright 2nd, just three behind “The King”, Wally Lewis. Three of JT’s five MOM awards have come in game one of a series and with his current form its little wonder he is again installed as the favourite at $8.00. There have been 34 three games series’ and the winner of Game 1 has gone on to win the series on 25 occasions (73%). Both sides have named debutants, while Queensland holds a distinct advantage with experience, having played a total of 251 Origin games while the Blues have played just 111. There are just three changes to the Maroons side that defeated the Blues by 46 points in Game 3 of 2015, missing are Jacob Lillyman (11), Will Chambers (4) and Justin Hodges (24) and in their place are Josh McGuire (2), Corey Oates and Justin O’Neill (both on Debut), while the Blues have made nine changes, in are Reynolds, Moylan, Mansour and Walker (all on Debut), Fifita (4), Maloney (3), Ferguson (1), Farah (13) and Bird (16). Those to miss out are Hodkinson (6), Hopoate (5), Merrin (13), Scott (11), the Morris twins (12 & 13), Ennis (8), Pearce (15) and Hoffman (14). In total try comparisons, the Maroons current side has scored 58 tries to the Blues 11, with Greg Inglis (17) and Darious Boyd (16) both scoring more tries than the entire NSW squad. Cameron Smith will become the most capped Origin player of all time, with 37 appearances, surpassing Darren Lockyer.

The last four series openers have resulted in total match points of 28 points or less and ten of the last fifteen matches have totaled less than the 33.5 mark set for this match. The slippery surface of ANZ Stadium has also contributed to low scoring affairs and the last six meetings at the ground have gone Unders with an average of 21 and a game high if 28 in Game 2, 2012.

Preview

Game 1 in Origin across the last 6 to 8 years has consistently been tight close games and I expect just the same again here.

I favour NSW with a slight edge for a number of reasons –

– Daley has made 8 changes across his list from the team soundly beaten in game 3 last year and for once I think he has got much of it right. Clearly he wants to play a forward dominated muscle game through the middle 3rd of the park and look to close the game down to a physical arm wrestle. With the 9 man forward team list he has named I do think they hold some advantage here. I’m told the bench to consist of Klemmer, Tamou and Fifita in support of the starting middle of Gallen, Woods and most probably Bird. To then support his intent and play for smart field position he has two quality kickers in the halves in Adam Reynolds and Maloney and a fast nimble ball return runner at fullback (Moylan). I think it’s pretty clear what his game plan is.

– In addition to NSW’s power game QLD have selected 3 forwards in my opinion on reputation and not form – Myles, Guerra and Papalii. Each have been all but statues for their clubs through the last month or longer playing poorly and offering little and I am happy to risk that that continues (although we have seen numerous times form miracles occur for QLD players).

– Another key factor is the ground, the loose playing surface and the rain now forecast across Tuesday and Wednesday. Homebush at the best of times is dam and slippery underfoot for Origin games especially for any lateral or speed play to the edges, should the forecast rain come then this will only further enhance simple tactics centred toward forward physical play for much of the game done the middle third of the park.

QLD, as they have done across the last 8 to 9 years reek some class especially at #9 and #6, but many of their list are now very much at the back end of career, and for mine they look to be carrying some key forwards in the middle on past years performance not recent form. Their left edge attack with Thurston, Inglis, Boyd and Oates is outstanding but I question whether they will get much room to play if playing much on the game on the back foot through the middle and or on a dam slippery surface.

NSW won the series two years ago and were then level pegging into game 3 last year before having their pants pulled down with an embarrassing flogging – in short they have been closer through recent years than for much of the prior 8. They hold a healthy advantage for games played at Homebush winning 4 of the last 6 while the last four series openers have resulted in total match points of 28 points or less and 10 of the last 15 matches have totaled less than the 34.5 mark set for this match. Add some rain and total points under certainly looks a betting interest.

I’m with NSW here, tough physical game led through the middle on what look conditions likely to suit.


 


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Follow us on Twitter at

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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 1 Preview

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 12

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 12

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 12 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-19.5 Broncos vs Tigers

-1.5 Dragons vs Cowboys

-6.5 Raiders vs Bulldogs

+15.5 Knights vs Eels


NRL Round 12 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 1 unit Broncos -11.5 $1.85 Ubet / -12.0 $1.90 William Hill

Bet 1 unit Raiders – 2.5 Sportsbet $1.90

Bet 4 units Eels -8.5 $1.90 Ubet  BB

Bet 2 units NSW H2H $1.92 Sportsbet

 

Notes – First week of Origin and a shortened round. I have this very different to the markets and am very surprised of the position available. The Eels are technically still a top 6 side and have come through a strong recent form line, led the Rabbits comfortably before running out of steam when run down late in a strong form game and then last night were close to a very good Storm offering for a long way, another excellent form reference given the quality of the Storms recent run including their win over the Cowboys but a week ago. They will now have a 7 day turn around into a short distance away game against the 16th placed team the Knights. The Eels will have possible injury doubts over Foran and Scott, but even so I still have the likely gap at least 12 to 14 point handicap, plus they have depth, they showed they can play and win tough without Foran only 3 weeks ago and have a big physical advantage here. Defensively these two teams are panels apart, the Eels conceding 14 a week and sound week on week, the Knights currently average conceding 34 a week and come through a very soft form line game last week against another bottom of the table side in the Tigers. I would anticipate that by next Monday this line will be 12 or longer.

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Dragons, Raiders, Eels


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Broncos vs Tigers

-19.5 Broncos

Stats

A depleted Broncos side hosts the Tigers at Suncorp Stadium to kick off an abbreviated Round 12. Brisbane will be without 6 regulars who will represent Queensland in Origin 1, while the Tigers have had 2 players named in the NSW side. The Broncos will be hoping they can reproduce their efforts from last year when they went undefeated through the Origin period. They get a good opportunity to get the ball rolling here, as they have completely dominated the Tigers in recent years, winning 10 of the last 11 clashes and only once in the last 10 years have the Tigers recorded a victory at Suncorp Stadium. The Broncos have now lost 2 of their last 3 but are unbeaten against sides currently out of the Top 8, winning 6 from 6, with an average winning margin of 24 points. Only once this season half they trailed at half time and they have also led at the break in 9 of the last 11 matches against the Tigers. Last week was the 1st time this season that Brisbane had not scored the 1st points of the match and a Broncos try has been the 1st scoring play in 5 of the last 6 meetings with the Tigers. Brisbane is 7-4 ATS and they have covered a line in 75% of their matches at Suncorp Stadium since 2014, producing a 24-8 result. In TMP’s they are 7-4 Under but at home they favour the Over, producing a 19-12 result since 2014. In contrast to the Broncos, the Tigers come into this match after winning 2 of their last 3 to be 4 and 7 after 11 Rounds. They are yet to register a win against a Top 8 side, having lost their 5 previous matches, while their only away win was against the Rabbitohs at ANZ Stadium. The Tigers have one of the worst records in the comp when travelling, winning only 4 of their last 20 matches on the road and they are even worse when playing interstate, having won just 2 of 11 since 2013, with 7 of the 9 losses having a margin result of 13+ and in 9 of the last 10 they have failed to cover the line. They have also lost 5 of their previous 6 matches without their Origin representatives. The Tigers are 4-7 ATS and have a 9-19 covering record as an away side since 2014. In TMP’s they are 6-5 in favour of the Overs and they also favour the Over on the road, producing a 17-11 result since 2014.

Preview

As we know well although depleted through this Origin period (now losing 6 players) the Broncos are well renown for the quality of their second tier depth, and importantly retain 3 key experienced players at #9, 7 and 6 to lead their game. The Tigers are certainly no where as well blessed already struggling with depth, they are without Tedesco and now lose Farah and Woods and have a very poor record when without these key players.

The other key issue here is the Tigers being on the road and interstate – for which they have a shocking record having only won 3 of their last 13 such games since early 2013, and across those same 13 games only covering the line 3 time. We have already opposed them twice this season when same, for two key losses (and line beats) with losses 30-18 by the Titans and 60-6 by the Raiders.

The Tigers come off a soft weak performance last start winning with a short margin through the Knights, the Broncos come off another key form game off their away defeat to the Cowboys. One a game vs the top of the table, the other vs the bottom.

Broncos while somewhat depleted are back at home and Bennett is a master at managing games like this, he also knows his second tier kids very well and how to manage them toward the desired result.  The Broncos are undefeated against sides outside the top 8, clearly a strong club and culture, have a long record over the Tigers and I think they get the job done again here and can cover the required line.

Bet 1 unit Broncos -11.5 $1.85 Ubet / -12.0 $1.90 William Hill


Dragons vs Cowboys

-1.5 Dragons

Stats

The Cowboys have won 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Dragons, including handing the Dragons their biggest defeat of the season in a 36-0 thumping when they last met in Round 5, but they will be without 5 key players for this clash, with Thurston, Scott, Morgan, O’Neill and Tamau all on Origin duties. The Cowboys did manage to win both of their matches last season without their representative stars, including the corresponding match against the Dragons. They come into this match with 6 wins from their last 7 matches and a 2-3 road record. They are 7-4 ATS, with a 13-7 covering record away from home since last year, while they are 10-3 covering on the road since 2014 when getting a start. They are 6-5 Over in TMP’s, with 4 of their last 6 decided that way. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in their last 5 matches and in 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Dragons. The Dragons have the week off after this match and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games heading into a Bye. They are yet to defeat a side currently in the Top 4, losing 4 from 4 but they have won 4 of their last 5 matches played at WIN Stadium, with their only loss coming against the Cowboys. They are 5-6 ATS and have covered in 11 of 16 at home since 2015. Take note that home favourites have only covered in 4 of the last 16 matches when Origin players have not been available. For just the 2nd time this season the Dragons start as a favourite and they have won 7 of their last 8 when starting as a home favourite. They are 9-2 Under in TMP’s, while the Under has saluted in 8 of their last 10 matches played at WIN Stadium. These 2 sides are at opposing ends of the attack rankings, the Cowboys currently sit 2nd, while the Dragons are 2 nd last. The Cowboys are yet to be outscored in the 2nd half, while the Dragons are yet to win a 2nd half with no side scoring more 2nd half points than the Cowboys and no side scoring fewer than the Dragons.

Preview

The Dragons are hard to tip, and hard to get but they do look like they get their chance here. They should be advantaged back at home and in Wollongong where they have won 5 of their last 7. They lose Dugan and are without Debelin, while the Cowboys clearly have key outs most notably Thurston, Morgan and their two big men up front.

I have some reservations over the Cowboys being a bit leg weary right now and possibly needing a bit of a freshen up. They struggled through the last 40 minutes vs the Storm, and unusually were unable to go up a gear and get the job done as they normally can. Then last week they again were fading from the 30 minute mark onwards, down 18-6 at the 50 minute mark and just looked leg weary and lacking any energy right across the park. From there we saw Thurston offer probably as good an individual stand out effort as I can remember, literally picking them up single handed and from sheer effort (as opposed to brilliance) taking them home to victory. For mine it was a stunning effort, as he too looked tired, but he was just driven by a determination to want to win. Not only did he then do this and pull the game back to an 18 all position, through that last 25 minutes the Cowboys also bombed 3 additional last pass plays. Staggering.

So missing 5 key players, and having looked a bit out on their feet at present the Cowboys have to be some risk here. But they have confidence, like the Broncos they have some quality next tier depth, and they won both games through the Origin period last season.

The Dragons, well they again fell short last week vs the Rabbits when they did have an opponent there to be beat but against a side lacking some key play makers and possibly attacking combination and points look to get their chance again to strangle an opponent out of the game.

Even with Cowboys being without 5 key top shelf players I only have this handicapped a single point apart. Lean to the Dragons being back with a decent home ground advantage and likely to be able to defend their opponent out of the game, but it looks a tough old affair and their record prior to a bye is not good (lost 7 of their last 9), you could certainly oppose them. Also lean to this being a low scoring unders game, but I have no interest.


Raiders vs Bulldogs

-6.5 Raiders

Stats

The only match of the Round featuring 2 last start winners sees the Bulldogs travel to the Nation’s Capital to take on the Raiders. Canberra caused a boil over when these 2 sides last met back in Round 5 and another win this week will be just the 2nd time in 13 years that they have beaten the Bulldogs twice in a season. They returned to the winner’s circle last week after losing their previous 2 and will be looking for back to back wins for the 1st time since Round 2. They are back at home for the 1st time in a month where they are 3 and 2 season to date, with their last start at home producing their biggest win of the season in a 60 point thrashing of the Tigers. They have struggled for wins at home against the Dogs in recent seasons, losing 3 of the last 4 but they get their chance here, with the Dogs having 3 key outs in Jackson and Klemmer, who are on Origin duties, while Hopoate will be out for the 3rd week in a row, as a result of the Dogs playing another Sunday game. The Raiders are 6-5 ATS with a poor covering record at home in recent seasons, producing a 12-17 result since 2014. In TMP’s they are 7-4 Over with only 3 of their 11 matches finishing under 40 and this has also been the case in 10 of their last 11 at home, while only 2 of the previous 6 clashes with the Bulldogs have totaled less than 40. For the 1st time since Round 2, the Bulldogs managed to put back to back wins together when they defeated the Roosters. They have won 5 from 6 this season as the away side, compared to just 2 wins as a home side to sit in 5th place on the ladder and are 1 of just 4 sides that haven’t been out of the Top 8 all season. They have led at half time in their past 6 matches, but have been outscored in the 2nd half in 6 of their last 9. They are 5-6 ATS, with a 4-2 covering record on the road, while they have covered in 11 of their last 17 as a road dog. The Dogs have a 7-4 Under TMP record and are 5-1 in favour of the Under when playing away. In the previous 6 encounters the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 8th minute and this has also been the case in 4 of the Bulldogs last 5 away games, while the team to score the 1st try of the match has gone on to win the last 10 clashes.

Preview

Two teams that can be difficult to catch match up as the best game of the short round, the Bulldogs have 3 key outs in Jackson, Klemmer and Hopoate while the Raiders lose Papalii.

The outs for the Bulldogs are significant, in particular two of their best forwards. They finally strung two wins together last week when beating the disappointing Roosters yet again were nothing outstanding themselves. Their form line is interesting, they come through wins against teams below them like Roosters, Tigers, Titans (just) yet across the last 6 weeks have not been able to match it with teams mid table or above like of the Eels (twice), Warriors and the Raiders last time they met. Their last two wins (Roosters, Tigers) are also against two teams struggling at the base of the table.

The Raiders are equally hard to read and inconsistent. Their best win season to date, by far was their impressive touch up over the Bulldogs back in round 5, at Belmore, where they were smacked 22-8, completely dominating the middle of the park. Yet since that game they have lost 4 of 6? To their advantage they now return home of 3 away games and but for Papalii (who’s form at present I don’t rate) field arguably their strongest line up for some time.

I have the game handicapped at 6.5 with advantage to the Raiders and I happy to stick with that. The Bulldogs should be smarting off their last beating by this opponent but then lose two key quality middle players, the Raiders return home and should again want to focus on playing to their strength through the middle, while at their best I think the Raiders have some combination and attacking strengths at 9, 7 and 6. Looks a good contest, I want to be with the Raiders for a small interest.

Bet 1 unit Raiders – 2.5 Sportsbet $1.90


Knights vs Eels

+15.5 Knights

Stats

Two last start losers’ closes out Round 12 in MNF when the Eels travel up the M1 to take on the Knights. The Knights have a very good record over the Eels, winning 7 of the last 8, including the last 5 meetings played at Hunter Stadium. The optimists will say that the Knights are due, but with just 1 win from 11 matches and such a young, inexperienced and ever changing roster (31 players so far), it’s hard to see anything other than an Eels win. The Knights are ranked last in both defence and attack, while the Eels have the 4th best defence so it’s hard to see how the Knights can score the 4 tries that they are likely to need to get the win. They have lost 5 in a row, conceding on average, almost 40 points a game while scoring a total of 22 during that time. Newcastle is 4-7 ATS and has failed to cover in 5 of 6 this season when getting a double digit advantage. They are 6-5 Over in TMP’s and they also favour the Overs at home, producing a 17-11 result since 2014. The Eels have lost 3 of their last 4 but have won 7 of their last 8 as a road favourite and they come into this match at their shortest price since 2014. They are 6-5 ATS and have covered in their last 4 as a road favourite. Parramatta is 8-3 Under in TMP’s, while 6 of their last 7 away games have finished the same way. They have conceded the 1st try in their last 5 matches and in 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Knights. Recent meetings have been closely fought contests, with 6 of the last 8 clashes decided by a margin of 1-12, while in the previous 6 encounters, the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 7th minute. The Knights have won 7 of their last 8 games of MNF at home, while the Eels have lost 7 of their last 11 Monday night fixtures.

Preview

The Eels couldn’t find any more trouble if they tried could they,but on paper this looks a lopsided game and one they should take some advantage in. They are still technically still a top 6 side and have come through a strong recent form line, led the Rabbits comfortably before running out of steam when run down late in a strong form game and then last Monday were close to a very good Storm offering for a long way, another excellent form reference given the quality of the Storms recent run including their win over the Cowboys but a week ago. They lose Jennings and have some slight doubts over Foran and Scott, but even so have some depth and strength in their names list that well out weighs that of their bottom of the table placed opponent.

The Knights currently average conceding 34 a week and come through a very soft form line game last week against another bottom of the table side in the Tigers. They lose Gagai and then a further 4 off the last week with injury in Jeremy Smith (key out), Stockwell, Jacob Saifiti and Lamb, add to this long term outs in Mullen, Rochow and two of the Mata’utia brothers and are talking 9 outs from their available top list – which for a club already struggling for quality let alone depth this is a major ask. Again to their credit they were very plucky last week but that was also against a very ordinary Tigers offering, this should be a very different level.

Knights currently average conceding 34 a week, come through a soft form line, have failed to actually score points at all at 3 of their last 5 starts and their best list is riddled with key outs. Clearly the Eels have had some problems of their own but if Arthur can get them simply focused on the job at hand here then it should be a mismatch.

Bet 4 units Eels -8.5 $1.90 Ubet  BB


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 12

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 11

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 11

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 11 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-7.5 Rabbits vs Dragons

-4.5 Cowboys vs Broncos

-9.5 Tigers vs Knights

-1.5 Warriors vs Raiders

-9.5 Sharks vs Eagles

-8.5 Panthers vs Titans

-2.5 Bulldogs vs Roosters

-4.5 Eels vs Storm


NRL Round 11 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 1 unit Rabbits -6.5 $1.92 CrownBet

Bet 1 unit Cowboys H2H $1.86 Pinnacle

Bet 3 units Titans +12.0 $1.93 Pinnacle / Topsport  BB

Bet 2 units Roosters +5.5 $1.91 Centrebet

Notes – Another tricky weekend as we continue to sift through inconsistent form offerings. If the Rabbits take any confidence out of their quality offering of last week and away win then they again look a 10 point or better winner vs an ordinary Dragons offering who have a terrible road record. Cowboys are 25 wins of last 31 at home, great game want to have a small interest with this advantage. Titans have a great record across last 3 years when road underdogs with a line start, let alone something as significant as +12.0 at Pinnacle, get very positive in with Peats and Panthers have only won one game this season by more than 2 pts and that was against the inconsistent Warriors. Roosters will be stung by their poor second half loss last Monday and have an excellent H2H record vs Bulldogs, this is a must win game for them. Pending final confirmation that Foran plays on Monday I am then most likely to also be with the Eels.

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Rabbits, Cowboys, Tigers, Warriors, Sharks, Panthers, Roosters, Eels


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Rabbits vs Dragons

-7.5 Rabbits

Stats

The Rabbits have won 7 of the previous 9 clashes with the Dragons, who won the most recent encounter back in Round 3 on a very wet Sunday afternoon at the SCG. It’s the Dragons 1st appearance at ANZ Stadium this season and they have lost 3 of their last 4 at the ground, as well as losing 3 of the previous 4 clashes with the Rabbits at the venue. Wins away from home have been hard to come by for the Dragons, losing 5 from 6 in 2016 and they have also lost 13 of their last 15 on the road long term. They are 5-5 ATS with a 5-10 covering record as an away side from their last 15 matches, while they have a 20-19 covering record since 2014 when getting a start. They continue to be the number 1 ranked side for Under results, with 9 of their 10 matches going Under, while the last 5 clashes with the Rabbitohs have also finished the same way. They remain the only side yet to outscore their opponent in the 2nd half, with an average of just 3.1 2nd half points per game and only once from the previous 9 clashes with the Rabbitohs have they won the 2nd half. They have conceded the 1st try of the 2nd half in 9 of their 10 matches and in 6 of their last 7 against the Bunnies. The Rabbitohs are looking for back to back wins for the 1st time since Round 2 but will need to overcome a poor recent record at ANZ Stadium, having lost 4 of their last 5 at the ground. They are also heading into a Bye after this match and their record pre Bye is poor as they have lost their last 3 and have a 6-8 win loss record since 2009. Their ATS record is also poor, producing a 4-6 result to this point, while they have a 5-10 covering record at ANZ Stadium since 2015. In TMP’s they continue to favour the Overs, to be 6-4 Over, while 5 of their last 7 matches at ANZ Stadium have totaled 50 or more. The Rabbitohs have scored the 1st try of the match in 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Dragons, while a Penalty Goal has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 10 meetings. Given that Thursday night games are 6-2 Under, both sides are struggling in attack and that the last 5 clashes have gone Under with the Dragons unable to score more than 10 points in the last 5, the Under 36.5 looks a likely outcome.

Preview

The Rabbits effort last week was their best season to date, the efforts of Reynolds, Inglis and through last 30 mins Keary turned a game around from 6-20 to a positive win. It’s hard to yet judge what substance there is to this, was in a positive lift under fire and pressure, is it one off or have they turned a few things around and can sustain this? Clearly Maguire has shaken things up internally, and the move of Inglis to at 6 and then centre role worked, a positive week but we need to see how the attitude and effort unfolds here and into the weeks ahead.

In their favour here is there opponent. How the Dragons are 5 and 5 is beyond me and any sensible reason, yet they have lucked their way through two or three wins like last week where their opponent ended up just being worst than them and they survived to the final point of being declared the winner (almost by default). They have two key forward outs, dysfunctional attack (two tries at best per game) and a terrible road record.

I want to be with the Rabbits, they should have a clear advantage here but for mine are still on trust.

Bet 1 unit Rabbits -6.5 $1.92 CrownBet


Cowboys vs Broncos

-4.5 Cowboys

Stats

Friday Night Football travels to Townsville in what promises to be another block buster when the defending Premiers, the Cowboys host the Premiership favourites in the Broncos. It will be the 5 th time in 12 months that these 2 sides have met with the last 2 encounters proving to be 2 of the best you will ever see. Both sides have been the bench mark in the opening 10 Rounds and both teams are at full strength, with the Cowboys naming an unchanged line up for the 5th week in a row, while the Broncos have 3 keys ins with McCullough, Glenn and the hard man Adam Blair all returning after time on the sidelines. The Cowboys 5 game winning streak came to a halt against the Storm last week, while the Broncos returned to the winners circle against Manly after their 5 game winning run ended the week prior. The Cowboys have had the better of the Broncos in recent times, winning 4 of the previous 7 clashes and they have also won 5 of the last 6 clashes played in Townsville. They dropped to 4th spot on the ladder after last week’s loss, holding down top spot for just the 1 week. They have won 7 from 10 to be ranked 2 nd in attack and 3 rd in defence giving them the 2nd best differential. Their 3 losses have all been by 4 points or less, while 4 of their last 5 wins have been by 16 points or more. They are 7-3 ATS and have a 19-12 covering record at home since 2014, while H2H they have only been beaten at home 5 times since 2014 producing a 26-5 result. In TMP’s they are 6-4 Over and 18-13 Over at home since 2014 and 5 of the last 7 clashes with the Broncos have also finished the same way. Only once in the last 5 meetings with Brisbane have the Cowboys led at half time but they have outscored them in the 2nd half in all 5 matches and the Cowboys still remain as the only side yet to be outscored in the 2nd half this season, scoring on average more than twice that of their opponent. North Queensland have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 7 of the previous 10 clashes and the last try in 4 of the last 5 match ups. The Broncos regained top spot last week and have won 8 from 10 to get there. They are ranked 3rd in attack and 1 st in defence giving them the best differential in the comp. Their 2 losses have been by 1 and 2 points, while their last 4 wins have been by 22 points or more and only once this season have they posted a score of less than 21 points. They are 6-4 ATS and have a 5-1 covering record as a road dog since last year. In TMP’s they are 6-4 Under and 18-12 Under as an away side since 2014. Brisbane has scored the 1st try of the match in 8 of the last 10 clashes, while in the last 3 meetings the 1st scoring play has been a Brisbane Penalty Goal.

Preview

Blockbuster game between the two teams who look the current benchmark. Clearly there has been little between them through recent starts, and again it looks much the same.

The Cowboys looks a bit off their game last week in losing to the Storm, they leaked two soft tries within minutes late in the first half after jumping to an 8 point lead then looked to struggle to take things up a gear through the second half. They return home where they have an outstanding long term record winning 25 of their last 31 while they have also won 6 of the last 7 H2H with the Broncos when also at home.

Broncos get 3 key forwards back for the right game and come off another nice result getting the job done last week at home over the Eagles. I can’t know anything of what they are doing significantly, and clearly they’ll be up for the challenge here.

We have a cast of many lining up here only days away from being named for Origin, lets hope we see all minds cleanly focused on the task here and not anything in 10 days time. Super match up in the halves with quality of form through Thurston and Milford.

Looks another cracking match up, the home ground and the Cowboys outstanding record here looks to provide them a slight edge and I’m happy to take a small interest with such.

Bet 1 unit Cowboys H2H $1.86 Pinnacle


Tigers vs Knights

-9.5 Tigers

Stats

Super Saturday kicks off with 2 sides coming off heavy last start defeats. The Knights suffered their biggest ever loss at home against the Sharks, while the Tigers suffered their 2nd 30 something point loss in 3 matches when they went down to the Bulldogs. Both sides are anchored at the bottom of the defensive rankings and have conceded 111 tries between them. The Knights have now conceded 179 points from their last 4 matches and been kept to zero in 3 of them. If there is a positive to be found, it would be that they have won 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Tigers, including their last start at Campbelltown. They have conceded the 1st try of the match in 8 of their 10 matches as well as in 8 of the last 10 meetings with the Tigers. Only twice this season have they led at half time and 7 of their 8 losses have been by 18 points or more. They are 3-7 ATS and have failed to cover in 6 of their last 7 games on the road. In TMP’s they have a 6-4 Over record, with 5 of their matches totaling 48 points or more. The Tigers have won only half of their 14 matches at Campbelltown since 2013 and covered a line in only 2 of their last 7 at the ground. They are 4-6 ATS in 2016 with a 3-11 covering record since 2014 when giving up a start, while they have failed to win 7 of their last 8 when starting as a favourite. Like the Knights, the Tigers also have a 6-4 TMP record in favour of the Overs, with 6 matches totaling 48 or more. The last 4 meetings have been decided by a margin of 1-12, while the last 3 clashes have finished Unders in TMP’s with the Knights covering the line in those 3 matches.

Preview

Low game, likely full of errors, expect Tigers finish in front.


Warriors vs Raiders

-1.5 Warriors

Stats

The 2nd game on Super Saturday featuring 2 last start losers sees the Raiders travel across the ditch to take on the Warriors. The Warriors have won the last 5 clashes with the Raiders who find themselves on the road for the 3 rd consecutive week. The Raiders have recorded just 3 wins in 14 years when travelling to New Zealand. They have now lost 4 of their last 5 and as a result they have slipped out of the Top 8 for the 1st time this season. They have been slow out of the blocks in recent weeks, conceding the 1st try in 4 of their last 5 and in 3 of them they have failed to score a 1st half point. They have also been slow starters against the Warriors, conceding the 1st try in the last 5 encounters. They are split 5-5 ATS but have covered a line in 15 of their last 20 when getting a start and they have an 18-8 covering record since 2014 as a road dog. In TMP’s they are 6-4 Over, while 5 of the last 8 clashes with the Warriors have totaled 44 points or more. For the 3rd consecutive week, the Warriors are based in New Zealand, they have a Bye following this match and their recent record pre Bye is a positive won, having won their last 3. As is often the case, the Warriors have been hard to catch, going on a win loss sequence since Round 5 and if that trend continues they are due to win this week. They are 4-6 ATS and their 4 covers have come from 5 matches when they have given up a start. They also have a 13-10 covering record as a home favourite since 2014. In TMP’s they are 7-3 Over, with 6 of their last 7 decided that way. The Warriors have already used 33 players after 10 Rounds, which is the most of any club

Preview

Slight edge to the Warriors playing their 3rd game / week in NZ against the Raiders poor away record this year (again) and missing Fensom. But also another low game won by the less stupid of these two. Lean to Warriors.


Sharks vs Eagles

-9.5 Sharks

Stats

The battle of the beaches closes out Super Saturday when the struggling Sea Eagles travel to Cronulla to take on the 2nd placed Sharks. It’s proving to be a tough draw for the Sea Eagles as this will be their 4th game from 5 starts that they have played a team positioned in the Top 3 on the ladder at the time of each clash. The Sea Eagles have now lost 3 of their last 4 to be sitting in 12th spot on the ladder. One thing in their favour is that they have completely dominated the Sharks in recent years, winning 13 of the previous 14 clashes (the last 7 straight) and 7 of the last 8 meetings at Shark Park. 3 of their 4 wins have this season have been as the away side but they were all against sides currently sitting below them on the ladder, while their other win was against the Sharks in Round 3. Manly are 3-7 ATS and for the 2nd week in a row (and for only the 3rd time in 3 seasons) they have a double digit start. Since 2014 they are 12-12 covering as an underdog and 7-5 as a road dog, while they have covered a line in the last 5 clashes with Cronulla. In TMP’s they are 6-4 in favour of the Unders, while 4 of the previous 5 encounters with the Sharks have finished the same way. The Sharks are aiming for 8 consecutive wins for the 1st time since 2002 and are undefeated at home this season, winning 5 from 5. Their last 4 wins at home have been by 8 points or less, while 7 of the last 9 clashes with the Sea Eagles have been decided by a margin of 1-12 points. Only once this season have they been beaten by a side currently sitting out of the 8, which was in the previous clash with Manly. They have scored the 1 st try of the match in 8 of their last 9 and in 6 of their last 7 at home. They are 7-3 ATS to be ranked equal 1st as a covering side and they have covered a line in 7 of their last 10 as a home favourite. They are split 5-5 in TMP’s, with 5 of their last 6 matches going Over, while they have a 16-14 Under record at home since 2014.

Preview

While I expect the Sharks win the Eagles have an amazing recent hold over their opponent, having won 13 of the last 14 H2H contests including the last 7 straight – and 7 of the last 8 at Shark Park. However we might dismiss this on current form, I’m sure this comes into play here and makes a 12 point line interesting.

The Sharks have been very good and are on a 7 win streak but they come off a soft touch footy run last week flogging the Knights and have numerous key players hoping for Origin selection. The Eagles come through losses to Broncos and Cowboys and lose Tapaou. They have just not been a match near those at the top of the table through recent weeks, should Stewart return and play he has made a significant impact to their defensive structures and communication and then ads some class to their attack and finishing.

Sharks have won 5 from 5 at home and I expect that that advantage gets them home but I’m happy to stay away from a 12 point line.


Panthers vs Titans

-8.5 Panthers

Stats

After 5 weeks the Panthers finally get back to Pepper Stadium when they take on the Titans. A win this week will make it 3 straight for the 1st time since 2014 and they will fancy their chances after winning 4 of the previous 5 clashes with the Titans, as well as winning 4 of the last 5 H2H as the home team. They have won 3 of their last 4 with all 3 wins coming against sides in the bottom half of the ladder which is where the Titans are currently sitting. The have covered a line in 7 of 10 to be ranked equal 1st ATS and have an 8-6 covering record at Pepper Stadium since 2015. They are 6-4 Under in TMP’s and they also favour the Under at Pepper Stadium producing a 16-10 result since 2014. It’s now 10 consecutive matches for the Panthers with a margin result of 1-12 but 11 of the last 12 clashes with the Titans have been decided by 13+. A Panthers try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 4 clashes with the Titans who have conceded the 1st try in 8 of their 10 matches. Last week was the 1st time this season and only the 4th time since in 34 matches that the Panthers have scored 5 tries in a match but they have scored more than 5 tries in 4 of the last 7 clashes with the Titans. The Titans recorded a big win over the Roosters to snap a 5 game losing streak last Round which saw them move from 13th to 11th spot on the ladder. It’s the 1st of 3 away games for the Titans with a Bye after this match and their record pre Bye is terrible, with just 2 wins from their last 10. This will be the Titans 7th match against a Top 8 opponent and they are yet to register a win, losing the previous 6. They continue to be profitable ATS with a 7-3 result and they have covered in their last 3 on the road when getting a start. Their TMP results are split evenly at 5-5, while they are 11-5 Over since 2015 as an away side. The Titans recorded their biggest ever win over the Panthers in the most recent encounter but that was more than 12 months ago.

Preview

Interesting match up here and I expect the underdog can compete here. The competition table tells us that there is only one win difference between these two sides on the table, the Panthers with 5 wins the Titans with 4, and they each have very similar key stats on for and against averaging approx. 20 for each. I think this is closer than the markets have had it.

The Panthers return for their first home game in 4 weeks and that certainly should be an advantage, but the Titans have been competed well and close to the result in each of their away games to date. It’s hard to quality the depth through the Panthers recent form, two wins but over the inconsistent Warriors and Raiders, but it’s winning form which builds confidence. If they get a chance to open a game up with their second phase off load play they can be very dangerous and they have some young talent who are getting better by the week. What will be interesting here is the match up through the middle as I expect this is where the Titans will focus with their big, physical yet under rated forward line up and the Panthers have shown some weakness in being opened up here on a number of occasions. The Titans also have some strengths with their off load game although they were long time getting to it last week but when they did it certainly troubled and opened up the Roosters. The other issue will be edge defence from the Titans, as the Panthers off the back of support and second phase play can hit your edges quickly when less expected. Tactically this will be a very interesting game.

Peats is a major in for the Titans, we are talking a player on the edge of origin rep selection in a key leadership role, something the Titans are not flush with. I have been singing the praises of Taylor for many weeks now, the kid is a future superstar, composed, reading the play like a pro, has skill and soft touches with the ball or foot and can turn a game, these two have a bright future together. Also, as mentioned last week the Titans have now played 6 of their 10 games vs top 8 sides, a tough draw season to date that again highlights that although marked with a run of losses their recent form has been much stronger than it looks and their has only been just the one blow out loss.

While I expect the Panthers can squeak home for a win here I do think the Titans can compete and stretch things and the line is very generous. The Titans have one of the best away cover the line records of any team in the competition and its long established since 2013 – 79% record covering when interstate away and 67% covering interstate away when off a last start win – a 12 point line should take them a long way into this contest.

Bet 3 units Titans +12.0 $1.93 Pinnacle


Bulldogs vs Roosters

-2.5 Bulldogs

Stats

For the 4th consecutive week the Bulldogs find themselves playing at ANZ Stadium and they will play just 2 more games outside of NSW for the remainder of the season. They have won 3 of their last 4 at the ground and 9 of their last 12 long term, but have been defeated in the previous 3 clashes with the Roosters at the venue. If true to form the Dogs are due for another loss to continue their 9 game win loss sequence. They are 4-6 ATS and have failed to cover a line in the last 4 clashes with the Roosters. They are 7-3 Under in TMP’s and 22-13 Under at ANZ Stadium since 2014. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 6 of the last 9 clashes with the Roosters at ANZ Stadium while Curtis Rona has now been the Bulldogs 1st try scorer in their last 3 matches and has scored 19 tries from 19 appearances at ANZ Stadium. The Roosters have now lost 8 from 10 and will now need to win 10 of their last 14 to be any chance of playing Finals and that looks to be a very big ask considering 12 of their last 14 games are against sides currently in the Top 8. They do have a good record over the Bulldogs, winning 6 of the last 7 clashes and they have also won 3 of their last 4 at ANZ Stadium. They are 3-7 ATS and are 0-3 against Top 8 sides. In TMP’s they are 6-4 Over with 4 of their last 5 matches finishing Under. They have been poor on the road, winning only 1 of their last 6.

Preview

The Roosters are another who have a quality recent winning record over their opponent, winning 6 of the last 7 times they have met and 3 of the last 4 times when at this ground, and I think they can bounce back and win here. I was against them for a number of outline reasons last week but I expect that that loss might well sting them into something here. They had come off a soft touch footy run through of the Knights the week prior, were back to full strength and off to the glitter strip for a weekend away – and just didn’t aim up with attitude. They have now been embarrassed by that loss (and effort), Robinson would have given it to a few very directly this week, he has finally dropped the way over rated Hastings and I’m sure we will see a very focused and committed offering here. All of that doesn’t just win you a game but I think it will certainly take them a long way and show us something significantly improved.

The Bulldogs have been W L W L W L all the way through the opening 10 weeks, with scattered form quality that is all over the place and very hard to read. They come off a win last week over the Tigers that was as soft as butter their opponent reverting to their meek prior self and while they did look to have tweaked a few things with their attack its hard to gauge given the soft resistance they were offered (and since franked with the Tigers Knights offering).

The Roosters are 2 from 10, there is no doubt they have to make significant improvement but they do now have their best possible list in and I think the switch to Mattherson is a positive one as the kid looks a real level headed talent. The bottom line for them though is that this is all but a must win game, as will the weeks ahead be, they have to start winning as this is the starting point. I think they can win straight up and the line position we have should be a healthy advantage as they have been heavily bet through the last 3 days.

Bet 2 units Roosters +5.5 $1.91 Centrebet


Eels vs Storm

-4.5 Eels

Stats

The Eels host the Storm in MNF to close out Round 11 in what shapes as 1 of the better matches of the Round. Parramatta caused a major upset when they last met the Storm, recording their 1st win in Melbourne in 10 years and that win was just 1 of 2 that the Eels have recorded from the last 7 clashes with the Storm. Parramatta is sitting in 6th spot – for the moment, with the 4th best defensive record, while they sit a lowly 12th in attack. They are 6-4 ATS and are 19-13 when covering at Pirtek Stadium over the last 3 seasons. In TMP’s they are 7-3 Under, while 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Storm have finished Over. The Eels have conceded the 1st try of the match in their last 4 and they have also conceded 1st in their last 3 meetings with the Storm, while they have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 8 of their last 9. The Storm currently sit 3 rd, with the 2nd best defensive record, while they are ranked 5th in attack. They come into this match off the back of 4 consecutive wins, including their best performance of the season last week against the Cowboys. They are 5-5 ATS and are 8-6 when covering as a road dog since 2014. They favour the Under in TMP’s with an 8-2 result, while they are 14-3 Under as an away side since last season. Both sides have proved tough to crack through their middle third, with the Eels conceding just the 1 try, while the Storm has conceded 2. Both sides have average records in MNF, the Eels have lost 6 of their last 10, while the Storm has lost 7 of their last 12 with the Under saluting in 9 of those 12 games. The Under has also come up trumps in 7 of the 9 games of MNF this season.

Preview

I have tipped the Eels mid week on the back of knowing that Foran was playing but given the media events and focus on his personal life over the last 24 hours I think it’s best to now just sit this game out. Foran has been a massive in for this side this year, and had a huge impact on their play, direction and defensively on their right edge, but we are only guessing now what state he might be in and how he performs.

The Eels should never have lost last week, they led 20-6, had done everything right to earn the win but I think had also played on a lot of emotion off the back of all the salary cap drama and ran out of that through the final 20 odd minutes to then be run down. They should actually improve having now got that game out of their system, they are again advantaged being at home and in front of the faithful but they also have a huge weight of pressure now sitting on their shoulder of needing to win every week. I think they have a physical advantage through the middle and can work the Storm over here but they are also going to need composure.

The Storm come off their best win this season, and a high quality form win, well above where I have had them pegged. They now sit top 4 and will have only grown further in confidence out of a strong away win against the defending premiers. They now face their third away game back to back into a tough venue (and have lost 4 of their last 6 here), have numerous players about to go into Origin week or a bye, there has to be some question as to how they aim up once again.

I originally found the game hard to split but with Foran back and the Eels desperate to win again went with them at home. I’m happy to stick with this, but also now happy not to have any play on the game.



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 11

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 10

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 10

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 10 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+1.5 Dragons vs Raiders

-7.5 Eels vs Rabbits

-3.5 Panthers vs Warriors

+10.5 Storm vs Cowboys

+13.5 Eagles vs Broncos

+ 13.5 Knights vs Sharks

+8.5 Tigers vs Bulldogs

+1.5 Titans vs Roosters


NRL Round 10 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Eels -5.5 $1.90 William Hill / -6.0 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Cowboys -6.0 $1.90 CrownBet

Bet 2 units Cowboys H2H $1.48 x Broncos H2H $1.18 CrownBet  BB

Bet 2 unit Knights +17.5 $1.96 Pinnacle / +16.0 Centrebet

Bet 1 unit Tigers +8.5 $1.80 NSW TAB

Bet 1 unit Tigers H2H $3.10 Centrebet

Bet 2 unit Titans +6.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Raiders, Eels, Warriors, Cowboys, Broncos, Sharks, Bulldogs, Titans


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Dragons vs Raiders

+1.5 Dragons

Stats

The Raiders travel to Kogarah to take on the Dragons in what will be the 1 st game of the season for StGeorge Illawarra at the newly named UWO Jubilee Stadium. After recording only 1 win in 11 years against Canberra, the Dragons have now won the last 3 encounters with the Raiders. They are undefeated as a home side this season, securing 3 of their 4 wins when playing with the home ground advantage. Their record at Kogorah is also a positive as they have won 6 of their last 8 at the ground. They are 4-5 ATS but have covered in 5 of their last 8 at Jubilee Oval and they have also covered in their last 3 clashes with the Raiders. The Dragons are 8-1 Under and they have the lowest TMP average in the competition at 31, with all of their matches totaling 38 points or less. Kalifa Faifai Loa has played in the Dragons last 3 matches and in all 3 games he has scored a try. The Raiders have won only 1 of 4 matches on the road this season and start as an away favourite for only the 3 rd time in 3 seasons. Their record ATS is the same as the Dragons with a 4-5 result, while they are 2-2 covering as an away side. The Raiders are 6-3 Over with just 2 of their matches totaling less than 40, while the previous 8 clashes with the Dragons have also finished with a total of 40 or more.

Preview

Just don’t like the game. Both sides have a number of players backing up on short turnarounds in particular their two big props. Dragons form line is terrible, they were pathetic against an under strength Warriors side last start, but they haven’t been much better previously.Clearly averaging 10 points a game in attack they have massive problems, and it they get behind and or have to chase they are in deep trouble (like last game). They do return to Kogarah which must help they.

Raiders had their chances vs Panthers, that’s a stronger form line, the key advantage I see in them is that in their 9, 7 and 6 they have some line break, ball play and attack options, plus a preparedness to actually play some attack. That just has to be an advantage here.

Don’t like the game, tipping Raiders,going with any advantage they might have with any luck in attack and points.


Eels vs Rabbits

-7.5 Eels

Stats

The Rabbits have a dominant record over Parramatta in recent times, winning 8 of the last 9 meetings, but wins have been few and far between for the Rabbitohs when travelling to Pirtek Stadium, with the Eels winning 9 of the previous 10 clashes that have been played at the ground. After winning their opening 2 matches the Rabbits have now lost 6 of their last 7, including 3 of their last 4 on the road. In all 6 losses they have trailed at half time and conceded 1st points, and only once in their last 7 have they scored more than 1 1st half try. They are 3-6 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 7 matches when getting a start. In TMP’s they have a 5-4 record in favour of the Overs, while they are 12-6 Under as an away side since 2015. The 1st match for the Eels since the salary cap penalties have been announced should provide them with plenty of incentive. They have won 6 of their last 8 which is double the amount of wins they had after 9 Rounds last year, with 4 of the 6 wins coming against sides currently positioned in the Top 8. They are 6-3 ATS and have covered a line in 6 of their last 8 when giving up a start. They have a 7-2 TMP record in favour of the Unders in 2016, while they are split 11-11 at Pirtek Stadium since 2014. The Eels have opened the scoring with a Penalty Goal 3 times this season, which equals the amount of times for this play in their previous 5 seasons combined. They have scored the 1st points of the match in 6 of 9, while no side has scored the 1st try of the 2nd half more than Parramatta with 7. 7 of the last 8 clashes have been decided by a margin of 13+, while 7 of the last 9 encounters have topped 40 points.

Preview

Eels clearly have been through a lot over the last week including the Peats exit (which is as expected) but my view remains the same that they will have a unified approach under Arthur into this game and in front of a full house baying for bloody will be very hard to beat. They play their best footy at this ground, added to which they have an excellent record here against the Rabbits winning 9 of the last 10, and just to illustrate how solid they are at present they come off a quality win vs Bulldogs where in the days prior they had the late out of Foran yet offered a high quality, physical performance. Arthur has they on plan, he has broken down what they can control, what they need to focus on and how he wants them to go about their business and regardless of all the other background crap I like being with teams that have such an approach and are rolling along in good solid form.

As for the Rabbits, well the script could be nothing much more than the opposite. They have lost their last 4 straight, have rolled over meekly in 3 of those defeats, are near soft as butter through the middle and as I have suggested for many weeks now clearly have significant internal issues. Had the Eels disaster not have broken and the diversion of last weekends rep round have occurred I can assure you the Rabbits would have copped far more media focus, and it wouldn’t have been pretty. Their last offering against the Tigers was terrible and just reeked of a side lacking harmony and tired of the coach and his methods, and sadly we now have a Coach vs Players scenario unfolding. Grevsmuhl is now gone, Keary is on the outer and will leave and Clark and Tyrrell have been told this week to look elsewhere, and that’s just the surface of it all.

De Gois will fill in fine at #9 for Eels, I trust what ever Arthur does at #6 in lieu of Foran, and for mine its the right week to be with the Eels.

Bet 2 units Eels -5.5 $1.90 William Hill / -6.0 $1.90 Sportsbet


Panthers vs Warriors

-3.5 Panthers

Christchurch

Stats

A home game for Penrith but it will be played at AMI Stadium in Christchurch which will see the Panthers on the road for the 4 th consecutive week. The Panthers have a good recent record over the Warriors having won 5 of the last 6 and they will be out to break a loss win sequence that they have been on since Round 2. All of the Panthers matches to this point have been decided by a margin of 1-12 points and this has also been the result in the last 4 clashes with the Warriors that have been played in New Zealand. They have covered the line in 6 of their 9 matches in 2016 and in 4 of their last 5 games played away from Pepper Stadium, while they have a 12- 12 covering record since 2014 when giving up a start. In TMP’s they are 6-3 in favour of the Unders, with a 5-1 Under record away from Pepper Stadium, while they are 20-13 Under since 2014 when playing away from their true home ground. They have conceded 1st points of the match in 7 of the last 10 clashes with the Warriors and in 5 of their 9 games this season. The Warriors are currently positioned outside the Top 8 but have won 4 of their last 6, although 3 of the 4 wins have been against sides in the bottom half of the ladder, while they are 1-3 against a current Top 8 opponent. They have a 2-3 record at AMI Stadium and haven’t played at the ground since 2010. Only twice this season have the Warriors conceded less than 20 points in a match and that was against sides currently ranked 15th and 16th in attack. They are 4-5 ATS and have covered in only 1 of their last 9 when getting a start, while they have failed to cover in their last 4 in New Zealand in the same position. They are 6-3 Over in TMP’s, with 5 of their last 6 topping 42 or more, while 7 of the previous 8 clashes against the Panthers played in New Zealand have resulted in TMP’s of 44 or more.

Preview

Looks a trick game. Panthers are on the road for their 4th away game in a row even though they host this in Christchurch. They are yet to win by a margin greater than 2 points, and while they look talented, display patches of quality they still sit mid table at 4 from 9.

Obviously the Warriors are a risk every week, but I have them rated a good chance here. The shake up through recent weeks may well take effect, the spare parts side that won last start showed some real attitude and they get some key ins back for this game. Aiming up again when carrying little expectation would not surprise, its their specialty.

Tipping Warriors to show up, limited confidence, certainly a no bet game.


Storm vs Cowboys

+10.5 Storm

Suncorp Stadium Brisbane

Stats

The 1st match of the double header in what will be a full house at Suncorp Stadium sees the Storm take on the Cowboys in a Top 3 clash. The Cowboys have had the better of the Storm in recent times, winning 4 of the last 6 clashes, including their last meeting in the Preliminary Final when the Cowboys recorded their biggest ever win over the Storm when playing in Melbourne. The Cowboys sit at the top of the table for the 1st time this season with the best attacking record in the comp, while they are currently ranked 4th in defence. They have won their last 5 and have covered the line in their last 7 matches straight to be 7-2 ATS after 9 Rounds. 4 of their last 5 wins have been by 16 points or more, while no side has conceded fewer 1st half points than the Cowboys, with an average of just 6. In TMP’s they are 6-3 Over, while 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Storm have finished Under. This week’s lineup remains unchanged once again and no side has used fewer players than the Cowboys with 19 (equal fewest with the Sharks). Gavin Cooper has scored at least once in the Cowboys last 5 matches and on 3 occasions he has been the 1st try scorer of the match. The Cowboys have scored at least 2 tries in all 9 matches this season attacking to their right edge with both O’Neill and Feldt bagging 6 tries each. After some indifferent form, the Storm has now won 4 of their last 5 and in their last 2 matches they have scored a total of 80 points and conceded zero. They have been fortunate in their draw to this point, with all 7 wins coming against sides out of the Top 8 while their 2 losses have been against sides currently in the 8. Their record ATS is 4-5, while they have a 10-9 covering record since when 2014 when getting a start. Melbourne has a TMP record of 7-2 Under, with 6 of their last 7 decided that way and their long term record also favours the Under with a 24-11 result since the start of the 2015 season. Only once in 11 years have the Storm tasted defeat at Suncorp Stadium, winning 9 of their last 10 at the ground but all of those matches were against the Broncos. Suliasa Vunivalu has bagged a double in all 3 appearances for Melbourne, while Cooper Cronk has scored 6 tries in his last 5 games.

Preview

I may well be wrong but I am just no rap for the form line that the Storm come through or how they have been playing when under any pressure. I think their last two wins are paper thin, yes they won well but in both instances their opponents laid down and handed them soft victories on a platter (and in both instances I was wrong expecting both opponents would play far better). If we then go back a few weeks they got out of jail with late wins against the Tigers and Knights and dusted up by the Bulldogs (which also doesn’t read all that well). Sometimes the draw can kiss you on the backside, I have no doubt that if they had come through recent weeks with 3 or 4 games against those at the top of the table it would all read very differently.

Now they do, and they meet one of the competitions measuring sticks on neutral turf in Brisbane. The Cowboys are 7 from 9, have won their last 5 straight and there’s some depth to that form line, more importantly there is some quality, confidence and belief to it. They have size and depth to hit through the middle, ball play the ruck edge (which the Storm don’t like) and then attack and finishing to play to numbers down either outside edge; most importantly Thurston is in fine form and his short kicking game through recent outings has been outstanding.

The Cowboys dusted this contest up clearly when they last met in a semi final late last year (in Melbourne) 32-12, I think the Cowboys have improved.

Bet 2 units Cowboys -6.0 $1.90 CrownBet


Eagles vs Broncos

+13.5 Eagles

Suncorp Stadium Brisbane

Stats

The final game of Super Saturday and the 3rd consecutive game with the home team playing at an alternate home ground will see Manly travel to Suncorp Stadium to take on the Broncos. The Sea Eagles have won 7 of the last 10 clashes with Brisbane but they are rank outsiders in this contest and have opened at the 3rd longest H2H price of the season at $5. They do have form on the road, winning 7 of their last 8 away from Brookvale Oval, including their last 3, but have been comprehensively beaten in their last 2 starts at Suncorp Stadium, losing by 26 and 34 points against the Broncos. They are 3-6 ATS and have a 12-11 covering record since 2014 when getting a start. They have opened with a 14 point start here and teams with a double digit advantage in 2016 have only covered in 3 of 13 matches. Their TMP record is 5-4 Under, while 6 of the previous 8 meetings with the Broncos at Suncorp Stadium have finished Over. Only twice this season have the Sea Eagles led at half time and only twice has a Manly try been the 1st scoring play. Brett Stewart is an unlikely starter and the Sea Eagles are winless this season when he hasn’t played, losing 3 from 3. Like Manly, Brisbane comes into this match as a last start loser after winning 5 straight. They are currently ranked 2nd in both attack and defence to sit 2 nd on the ladder and are the only side that hasn’t been outside of the Top 5 all season. They are 5-4 ATS and have covered a line in 14 of their past 18 games at Suncorp Stadium. They are also unbeaten at Suncorp Stadium this season, winning 5 from 5 and long term they have won 16 of their last 18 at the ground. They have a 5-4 record in favour of the Unders, while they are 11-8 Over at Suncorp since 2015. Brisbane has opened the scoring with a Penalty Goal 4 times this season, 3 of them have been at Suncorp, while they have scored the 1st try of the match in 8 of their 9 matches. They have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half on 5 occasions and in their last 3 matches Corey Oates has scored their 1st try of the 2nd half. The Broncos have conceded just 4 tries down their right edge in defence (equal 1st with Cowboys). It’s now 8 straight games where the TMP’s have finished Unders when Jarred Maxwell is in charge with an average of less than 30 and none of them have finished above the total of 40.5 set for this match.

Preview

Stewart and Matai key outs for Eagles, and they are 0 from 3 this season when without Stewart, Jake Trbojevic is also subject to a final fitness test but likely to play. Broncos also have key outs with Blair, Glenn and McCullough missing, 3 key forward outs.

Broncos are very good at home and come off a loss they’ll clearly be hard to beat here, especially with stronger depth and combination than their opponents. The market has this right at somewhere around 13 but there are too many ifs for me about the Broncos winning by 3 to 4 trys to cover the line to play. Two key middle players out, in particular their enforcer, make shit #9 who is not up to this grade. I expect they get the job done but I’m just happy to include them at the straight up position.


+13.5 Knights vs Sharks

Knights

Stats

These 2 sides come into this match with completing contrasting results, the Sharks having lost just 1 of their last 7, while the Knights have won only 1 of their last 7. The Sharks have won the 2 most recent encounters with Newcastle, but the Knights have caused the Sharks some problems prior, winning 8 of the previous 9 and 6 of the previous 8 played at Hunter Stadium. The Knights only win was a 2 point victory over the Tigers a week after the Sharks beat the Tigers by 8. 6 of the Knights 7 losses have been by a margin of 13+, while their average losing margin is 28 points and in their last 3 matches they have conceded 117 points and scored just 10. They are currently 3-6 ATS, while they are 12-1 when covering as a home underdog. They are 5-4 Over in TMP’s, while 11 of their last 14 meetings with the Sharks have finished less than 40 points. The Knights have already conceded 51 tries in 2016, which is 20 more than they had conceded after 9 Rounds last year. The Sharks are aiming for 7 consecutive wins and if they defeat the Knights it will be the 1st time since 2002 that they have won 7 on the trot. 5 of their last 6 wins have been by a margin of 1-12 points and they have never beaten the Knights at Hunter Stadium by more than 10 points. They have scored the 1st try of the match in 7 of their last 8 and in 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Knights. Their ATS record is 6-3, while they are 15-14 since 2014 when covering as an away side. They are 5-4 Under in TMP’s, with a 16-13 Over record on the road since 2014. It’s a danger game for the Sharks after coming off a big game against the Broncos into a side coming last that has a healthy H2H record over their opponent.

Preview

Clearly the Sharks should win against the cellar dwellers of the competition, but with the length of line on offer for the Knights at home I am interested. Mullen is a key out, but their forward line up is as strong as it has been season to date. At home this season they are 1 win 1 draw and 1 loss, and where in the defeat right up to the death and had 3 tries disallowed during the game. As mentioned previously I am sure Nathan Brown is targeting these home games for their best performances and they are getting significant home town / big crowd support, and they should benefit from a week off freshen up. No knock on the Sharks, we were with them last start for their impressive first half domination of the Broncos, but they would also have had plenty of back slapping off that win and easily see this as “a just turn up win” game.

Home sides with a long line start (8 or more) have a huge record of covering the line at 69%. Since 2008 home sides getting 8 or more line start in rounds 5 to 11 have a 15-3 record of covering, and since that same year the Knights when home underdogs getting 6.5 or more start are 9-2. The 16 or more looks a very healthy leg up advantage here, if you can bet with Pinnacle you can get as good as 17.5.

Bet 2 unit Knights +17.5 $1.96 Pinnacle / +16.0 Centrebet


+8.5 Tigers vs Bulldogs

Tigers

Homebush

Stats

The Bulldogs have won 7 of the last 9 clashes with the Tigers, including 2 Golden Point results. They are coming off an 8 point loss to the Eels to stretch their win loss sequence to 8 matches. The Dogs have won 8 of their last 11 matches played at ANZ Stadium but have covered a line in only 5 of those. Their ATS record in 2016 is currently 3-6 and they have covered the line in only 1 of the last 4 clashes with the Tigers. In TMP’s, the Bulldogs are 6-3 in favour of the Under and since 2014 they have a 21-13 Under record both as an away side and in matches played at ANZ Stadium. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of the last 11 clashes with the Tigers, while Curtis Rona has been the Bulldogs 1st try scorer in their last 2 matches and has scored 17 tries from 18 appearances at ANZ Stadium. The Tigers broke a 6 game losing streak in their last start to record just their 3rd win of the season. It’s a home game for the Tigers but their record at ANZ Stadium is poor as they have lost twice as many games as they have won at the ground since 2011, winning 8 and losing 16. They are 4-5 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 8 matches when getting a double digit start. The Tigers are 6-3 Over in TMP’s, with the 6 Overs results all totaling 48 points or more, while they are 5-2 Under in day games at ANZ Stadium since 2014. They have conceded the 1st try of the 2nd half in all 9 matches and only once have they outscored their opponent in the 2nd half. While in 7 of their 9 matches the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 8th minute. Recent meetings between these sides have been high scoring affairs with the last 7 clashes totaling 40 points or more at an average of 49.

Preview

I found this game very tricky to line up. I think the markets keep pricing and judging the Bulldogs on potential, not their actual play or results. They have scraped through their last 3 games with spluttered offerings and seem hell bent of leading their opponent into a physical arm wrestle. I still think they have major problems at 9, 7 and 6, the combinations are just not working, they struggle to play direct or on the front foot. Worst still is if they have to chase points they have a problem that is then well out of their comfort zone.

I have a big watch on the Tigers here. They have 4 key player ins, notably up front on Woods and Grant, get Moses back at 6 and the experienced Elijah Taylor onto their bench. They aimed up last start with a quality win under some pressure and will turn up here a much stronger team. What they do have is some points in them, and at any stage if they can jump the Bulldogs they can turn this game on its head. How they approach their play will be critical, they’ll need to ensure that they maintain an up tempo game, continue to attack and look to break things open.

The Bulldogs have failed to cover the line at 5 of their last 6 at the ground, and at all of their last 4 games straight. The Tigers have been heavily bet line and H2H through recent days on the news that they will have the keys ins named plus the benefit of a nice dry sunny Sunday afternoon. I think the Tigers are a decent chance, I want to have a small interest on them winning plus some insurance with the line start.

Bet 1 unit Tigers +8.5 $1.80 NSW TAB

Bet 1 unit Tigers H2H $3.10 Centrebet


Titans vs Roosters

+1.5 Titans

Stats

The final game of the Round sees 2 sides struggling at the wrong end of the ladder when the Roosters travel to the glitter strip to take on the Titans. Things may be well be on the up for the Roosters with key personnel returning last start when they cruised to victory over the Knights for a 38-0 win, while it was the complete opposite result for the Titans who went down to the Storm by 38-0 in what was their worst performance of the season to make it 5 consecutive losses. Wins have been shared equally since 2009, with the Roosters winning the 2 most recent clashes to square the ledger at 5 wins a piece from the last 10 meetings. Home ground advantage has meant little when these sides have met, with the away team winning 8 of the 13 clashes. The Titans dropped 3 places after their loss to the Storm to sit 13th which is their lowest position on the ladder season to date. They are ranked 11th in attack and 13th in defence. They have been profitable ATS, producing a 6-3 result, while their long term covering record as an underdog is 27-19 since 2014 and this record improves when they get a start at home producing a 12-7 result over the same period. In TMP’s they are 5-4 Over and 10- 7 Over at home in night matches since 2014. 4 of the Titans 6 losses have been by single figures and there have been plenty of tight contests with the Roosters, with 5 of the previous 6 clashes decided by a margin of 1-12. They have trailed at half time in their last 8 matches and conceded the 1st try of the match in 7 of them. In MNF the Titans have won 4 of 8 since 2014 and covered a line in 6 of the 8. For just the 2nd time this season, the Roosters are sitting higher than 16th spot on the ladder and a victory will give them B2B wins for the 1st time this season. They are ranked 13th in attack and 12th in defence. They are 3-6 ATS and on the road they are 5-6 from the last 2 seasons when giving up more than a converted try. In TMP’s they are 6-3 Over, while 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Titans have also finished Overs. In MNF, the Roosters have won 8 of 11 since 2013 but have covered a line in only 2 of 6 since 2014, while 4 of their last 5 Monday fixtures have finished Under. The home side has covered the line in 5 of 7 when Gavin Badger has been in charge.

Preview

The Titans have a lot in their favour here and have been well supported at the line (now into 4.5). They were thumped last start with their worst offering of the season, but the week off will have done them some good and they will run out their best team offering of this season. A deeper look at their form line shows that they have come through a tough draw and for the most part been dam competitive.

The Roosters come off a confidence building flogging of the Knights and have some key players back. But they are not a great away side, especially out of Sydney away games, and are still a 2 from 9 season.

Home underdogs such as the Titans here with +4.5 or longer have a very good record. I think the Titans can cause an upset and win, at home against another team struggling for form and a poor away record the +6.5 is the right play.

Bet 2 unit Titans +6.5 $1.90 Sportsbet


 


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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 10

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 9

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 9

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 9 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-9.5 Rabbits vs Tigers

+4.5 Eels vs Bulldogs

-3.5 Panthers vs Raiders

-12.5 Roosters vs Knights

-8.5 Eagles vs Cowboys

Even Warriors vs Dragons

+1.5 Titans vs Storm

-1.5 Sharks vs Broncos


NRL Round 9 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Panthers-Raiders Over 40.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Roosters tri > 6.5 $1.36 x Cowboys H2H $1.38 Centrebet / William Hill  BB

Bet 1 unit Titans +4.5 $1.91 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Sharks +2.0 $1.90 Sportsbet

Betting Notes:

Looks a very tricky week with some line ball match ups, questionable form and then the influence of those already pre selected for the Australia v NZ Test playing this weekend. As you can see from my game handicaps I have 5 of the games rated 3.5 or below so little needs to go wrong either way for it to be very tricky. The other key influence this weekend which is difficult to access but certainly poses question marks is if any of those chosen in advance for the Test have their heads in the wrong space and are not focused on the game in hand (as opposed to escaping injury and looking forward to the coming test match). The Cowboys, Storm, Broncos and Warriors look the most impacted here should there be issue as they have the majority of the two test teams made up across their player lists.

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Rabbits, Bulldogs, Panthers, Roosters, Cowboys, Dragons, Storm, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Rabbits vs Tigers

-9.5 Rabbits

Stats

These 2 sides have recorded just 1 win between them from a combined 12 matches over the last 6 weeks and growing speculation about the future of both coaches wouldn’t be helping. The Rabbits have won 7 of the previous 9 clashes with the Tigers who are looking at 7 consecutive losses for the 1st time since 2013. To make matters worse, the Tigers are on the road for the 2nd straight week and they have now lost 9 of their last 10 away games after conceding 60 against the Raiders last week. They have a 4-11 ATS record since 2015 as an away side and have covered in only 4 of their last 17 as a road dog. They have conceded the 1st try of the 2nd half in all 8 matches and only once have they outscored their opponent in the 2nd half. In TMP’s they are 5-3 Over season to date and 5-4 Over in night matches at ANZ Stadium since 2014. In 6 of their 8 matches the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 8th minute. The Rabbits have lost 5 of their last 6 and in all 5 losses they have trailed at half time, averaging just 3 1st half points. Their ATS record is 3-5, while they have a 12-15 covering record at ANZ Stadium since 2014. Their TMP results are split 4-4, while they are 13-7 Under at ANZ Stadium since 2014 in night matches. A winning margin of 13+ has been the result in 6 of the last 7 encounters.

Preview

A rubbish game I want to stay away from with two sides in losing form (and streaks) and each having questionable respect for their coach and his current methods. The Rabbits should be advantaged here, offering probably their strongest line up for some 6 weeks in particular up front in the forwards. And as we noted last week (vs Raiders), with Woods and Grant missing their opponents just waltzed on through the middle time after time and set a platform up off which to capatilise.

As I expected last week the Rabbits did have a dig for the most part, but realistically were only led by a few key performers (notably Sam Burgess) and then faded when it mattered through the last 20 minutes to end up leaking 30 points (again). I have again heard through recent days that’s its not the happiest of camps and Maguire has certainly not been his warmest self recently, they are hard to pick.

As for the Tigers – well something like that has been coming for weeks and I expected the Raiders would have some fun with them through the middle but we could never have forecast such a poor offering nor a 60 point flogging. They were also disadvantaged by being out of town / away, they now are back in Sydney and clear have some heat and focus on them. There’s no doubt that they are riddled with internal issues, short up front, thin on depth and have some key players playing with injury – very hard to have.

On paper the Rabbits should win but I have no trust for either. The Tigers are looking down the barrel of 7 straight losses early into the first third of the season and such disappointment and soul searching at this early stage of the season can often lead to a significant bounce back performance, underdogs off a loss getting +6.5 have a very good record in the opening weeks of a season and and it wouldn’t take much to have the Rabbits under pressure and self doubt given their own poor recent form.

For mine the game has whiskers on it, hopefully we get something half entertaining and worth watching.


Eels vs Bulldogs

+4.5 Eels

Stats

The Eels recorded only their 2nd win from the last 11 meetings with the Dogs when these sides last met in Round 3. They ran out comprehensive winners that night and have gone on to win 3 of their next 5 since then, while the loss was the start of a win, loss sequence for the Dogs that has now been running for 6 weeks. Both sides have won their last 2 starts at ANZ Stadium and a win for the Eels this week will give them 3 consecutive wins at the venue for the 1st time since 2010. Parramatta is 5-3 ATS and 3-1 when giving up a start, while the Dogs are 3 and 5 with a 2-1 record when getting a start. In TMP’s, both sides favour the Unders, the Dogs producing a 5-3 result, while the Eels are currently 6-2 and 4 of the last 5 clashes have also resulted the same way. It’s taken a few weeks, but the Eels are now aiming plenty of their attack down their left edge, in the 1st 5 Rounds, only 2 of their 11 tries were scored attacking that edge, but in their last 3 matches more than half of their tries have come that way, with Radradra (5) and Jennings (6) topping the try scorer chart for the Eels and the Dogs can expect plenty more traffic to come that way as they have conceded more than half of their tries this season down their right edge defence.

Preview

Note with the Foran out I have updated the game handicap to now be +4.5 Eels

The Foran out is clearly huge, this side were near rudderless in game direction game 1 when he didn’t play and had some significant defensive issues on their right edge that became well exposed. The Eels further problem is that they don’t have the depth to have a suitable player step into this role, with Kelly or Cornish the two obvious replacements but both way out of their depth with what is required. Of greater concern for the Eels now is that this following week probably marks the end of their season as the NRL salary cap breach penalties are mooted to be handed down early next week (timed to coincide with the rep week off) while they will now also have Foran off the scene for an indefinite period. I have no idea how the Eels might respond in this game, but it is hard to see them holding it all together.

The Bulldogs are a nutcase to deal with at present and I have had then listed as a no bet team for the last 4 weeks and nothing changes here. They have stumbled through a win loss win loss form line since the start of the season and are harder to catch than trouble on the streets of Kings Cross. They have moments of quality surrounded by periods of spluttered attack and weak defence, consistently inconsistent. They had the Titans on toast last week with a comfortable margin on a day where there opponent was without their key play maker (Taylor) yet then fell into their complacent mode to leak 12 quick points and all but lose the game.

Bulldogs get their chance, Foran a massive out, the likely play here is total points under but 36 doesn’t leave much room for error and realistically we are dealing with plenty of guess work as to how the Eels aim up and or what offering the Bulldogs put out.


Panthers vs Raiders

-3.5 Panthers

Stats

This will be the 3rd straight week and the 5th game in 6 weeks that the Panthers find themselves on the road. They come into this match with a 3 and 5 record after they were narrowly beaten again last week, giving them 5 single figure losses and taking their tally to 5 for the number of matches they have played in that have been decided by 2 points or less. The Panthers are 6-2 ATS but have failed to cover in the previous 3 clashes with the Raiders, while in TMP’s, they have a 5-3 Under record, with 4 of their last 5 topping out at less than 40 (both of their previous matches ATG have also finished Under). The Raiders should be full of confidence coming into this match after scoring 60 points against the Tigers last week and they have also won the last 3 meetings with the Panthers. This is the 1st of 3 consecutive away games for the Raiders as they play the Dragons and Warriors on the road in the coming weeks. They have the boxed set on the road this season, producing indifferent form with a win, a loss and a draw. They have proved hard to catch ATS, producing a 4-4 result, while in TMP’s, they have been much easier to follow, with a 6-2 result in favour of the Overs. Recent meetings between these sides have been closely fought contests with 7 of the last 9 clashes decided by a margin of 1-12 points, while the previous 4 clashes have finished Over in TMP’s.

Preview

Note this game is played in Bathurst.

Interesting game played at a neutral venue with both teams mid table, the Panthers 3 and 5 and the Raiders 4, 1 and 3. While the Panthers have only won the 3 games and they have already wrestled with numerous key injury issues their formline is very very strong, close up last week when away to the Sharks, stretched the Cowboys, beat the Broncos and could have or should have won a number of their close losses. The thing that stands out about this list through is where they are headed, it might be 12 months away but they have an arsenal of high quality kids coming through who are being blooded with experience each week now in the top grade and are only just off the pace, gee they are going to be a power into the next few years.

This is not a walk in the park tho. It is now their 5 away game in the last 6 weeks and they have outs with Martin, Blake and Whare but now get McKendry and Segeyaro back. If they can keep their head in attack their ball play and off load game is likely to really trouble the Raiders big men in the middle who lack mobility in defence and can get very flat footed and lazy, and some up speed tempo to this attack and I expect things will open up quite a bit. This is also a nice test for the Raiders, off some very poor offerings they aimed up last week with a comfortable flogging of the Tigers but their opponents laid down and offered very little. If they can get their big men rolling forward again then they to have some attack and points in them but ball control is not their greatest strength.

I favour the Panthers and have them marked an approx try in front, but even with some rain forecast this looks a very open ball play attack lead game with two teams who’ll just want to trade attack punch after attack punch at each other all game. The Raiders have consistently been involved in high scoring games season to date with 6 of their 8 games going over, while typical of what I expect here the last 4 times these two teams have met they have averaged totals of 50 points or more.

Bet 2 units Panthers-Raiders Over 40.5 $1.90 Sportsbet


Roosters vs Knights

-12.5 Roosters

Stats

The Roosters have won 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Knights and they have also won 9 of the past 10 meetings played at Allianz Stadium. Both sides come into this match with just 1 win from their last 5, with both side recording their solitary wins in Round 6. The Roosters go into this match off back to back losses but have opened as a heaviest favourite of the Round and are at their shortest price of the season after some big names return, while the Knights are again at long odds and have the highest average H2H price at $3.68. The Roosters are 2-6 ATS and a 10-9 covering record since 2014 when giving up a double digit start, while in TMP’s they have a 6-2 Over record, with 5 of their 8 matches topping 40 points and 5 of their last 6 matches at Allianz stadium have also finished the same way. They are still looking for their 1st home win of the season and have now lost their last 4 matches at Allianz Stadium but they haven’t lost 5 in a row at the ground since 2012. They are on a 5 day turn around which hasn’t been a problem in recent seasons as they have won 9 of 11 since 2013. The Knights have lost Mullen and have now used 29 players after 8 Rounds, which is the most of any side. They remain winless on the road, losing 5 from 5, conceding an average of almost 38 points a game as an away side. They have covered a line in only in 1 of 5 away games and have an 11-17 record ATS when on the road since 2014. In TMP’s they are 5-3 Over, while 9 of their last 13 away games have also gone Over. The previous 6 clashes between these sides have been decided by a margin of 13+ and this has also been the margin in 5 of the Knights 6 losses.

Preview

Roosters have key ins and off the back of last weeks defeat and at 1 from 8 just have to win here. The Knights travel poorly and have further key outs, in particular Mullen.

I think the Roosters win and probably win pretty comfortably 13+, but I don’t want to play with a long line start of the 14 to now 16 that’s on offer for a side that has only won the one game. I think the best way to play them is a more conservative position as a leg of an all up.


Eagles vs Cowboys

-8.5 Eagles

Stats

The Cowboys have won the last 3 clashes with the Sea Eagles but wins at Brookvale Oval have been few and far between for the Cowboys, with their last visit to the ground their only win in 10 years. They have won 4 straight to be 6 and 2 after 8 Rounds which has them sitting in 2nd place for the 3rd week in a row, while they are 1 and 2 on the road, opening their away account in their last road trip to Penrith. They are 6-2 ATS, covering the line in their last 6 straight and have a 4-3 covering record since 2015 when giving up a start on the road. In their last 4 wins the Cowboys have averaged 34 points in attack and conceded just 13 in defence. They continue to dominate 2nd halves keeping their record intact as the only side yet to be outscored in the 2nd half with no side scoring more or conceding fewer 2nd half points. They have scored the 1st try in 6 of their 8 matches and in 3 of their last 4 Gavin Cooper has been the 1st try scorer of the match. In 5 of their last 6 the TMP’s have finished Overs and this has also been the result in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Sea Eagles. After 1 of the toughest draws in the opening Rounds the Sea Eagles play their last match off a 5 day prep, at least until Round 21 anyway. After suffering 2 heavy defeats in the opening 2 Rounds, they have now won 4 of their last 6 and have a 3-5 record ATS. They have won only 1 of 4 at Brookvale Oval (1-3 ATS), while all 4 of their home games have finished Unders in TMP’s and in all 4 they have conceded the 1st points of the match.

Preview

Expect key outs for the Eagles and they significant at the back. They come off a win but were troubled for most of the way by the Knights and only the quality kicking game of Cherry-Evans proved the difference. Once again they were loose through the middle up against a young pack, they mean one of the best forward offerings in the comp here. Cowboys have been the benchmark, they continue to play week in week out with no key injuries or disruptions and should have too much muscle and size through the middle to then play off and dominate.

The one risk here is that the Cowboys have a long list of quality players already selected in the Test teams and so might not put their foot right to the floor here if not necessary. Think teh best way to play this is anchor them to win.


Warriors vs Dragons

Even

Stats

History shows the Dragons have dominated the Warriors, winning 19 of the 23 clashes since 1999, including winning the last 11 matches straight, with the Warriors only victory since 2004 coming in 2007. The Warriors were embarrassing in their 42 point loss to the Storm last week and they have lost 6 of their last 9 matches in the week following a game where they have conceded 30 or more points. They are 3-5 ATS and 10-12 covering at Mt Smart Stadium since 2014, while they are 10-10 when giving up a start over the last 2 seasons. They are 6-2 Over with their last 5 straight resulting that way and they are 9-5 Over at Mt Smart since 2015. They have conceded the 1st try in 6 of their 8 matches and they have conceded the last try in 7 of 8. The Dragons are coming off back to back wins and are looking for 3 straight victories for the 1st time in 12 months. They are 4-4 ATS with a 7-1 TMP record in favour of the Unders. This will be the final game of the season for the Dragons where they will have to leave NSW and in distant away games they are 4-8 H2H, 6-6 ATS and 7-5 Under over the last 3 seasons. In 4 of their 8 matches they have opened the scoring with a Penalty Goal and in 6 of their last 7 they have failed to score a 2nd half try. In a match featuring the team with the worst record in attack, versing the team ranked 2nd last in defence it’s hard to pick a winner.

Preview

The less said the better here. The Warriors got me last week, I fell in to thinking that coming off a quality effort they could actually put another one in yet what they then dished up was insipid rubbish, as low and completely disinterested an NRL offering as I can remember. Now coach McFadden has finally decided if he is going to get the bullet then he’ll go on his terms and has dropped 6 players in addition to the two further key injury outs that they have – this is stuff he should have done 12 months ago.

The Dragons were handed their win on a platter last week with the leg up of 8 first half handing errors that the Roosters offered them, and their 4 wins season to date have all been against sides at the bottom of the table. They have a very an amazing head to head record vs the Warriors winning the last 11 games straight, their defensive structures should be their mainstay and advantage here.

The markets have been all over the place with some wild swings given the the little understanding that any of us have of what Warriors line up is named, let alone what they then offer. Dragons to win but an ugly game to consider.


Titans vs Storm

+1.5 Titans

Stats

Storm has won 8 of the last 10 meetings with the Titans, including 3 of the previous 4 clashes at CBus Stadium. They have won 3 of their last 4 and are 2 and 1 on the road. Their record ATS is currently 3-5 and they are 6-8 covering as a road favourite over the last 2 seasons. They are 6-2 Under in TMP’s and 19-9 Under as an away side since 2014. In 6 of their 8 games a Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play which includes their 3 previous away games and they have also crossed 1st in their last 5 trips to the Coast. It’s a milestone match for Craig Bellamy as it will be his 350th match as an NRL Coach and he has a habit of getting his side “up” in milestone matches, although he wouldn’t be fussing over himself. The Titans have lost 4 in a row, while their last 6 matches have all been decided by single figures. They are 6-2 ATS (equal best in the comp) and have also covered the line in 6 of their last 7 at home, as well as winning 5 of their last 7 at home. They are 5-3 in favour of the Overs and the last 5 meetings with the Storm have topped 44 or more. The Titans have been notoriously slow starters, conceding the 1st try in 6 of their last 7. Only 1 home side has been beaten this year from 7 matches when Chris James has been in charge and all 7 have finished Overs in TMP’s.

Preview

Very interesting game and I think the Titans will give this a real shake. Firstly lets put the Storm’s big win last week into perspective, the Warriors laid down and clearly were pathetic, and as noted last week the Storm’s form prior to that win in my opinion is very thin (Tigers, Knights). It’s my understanding they have picked up further key injuries and have had limited training and it’s been behind closed doors this week as they try to piece together a combination for this game, including the likely loss of their three players on their left edge. They also have approx. 6 players picked for the Test next week and off the back of a supposed big win (and thin form) have to be a major risk.

I expect Taylor will be back here for the Titans, a key in as this kids performances to date have been excellent. They again stretched their opponent last week, on the road and into a golden point shoot out, back at home in likely wet and damp conditions they will fancy themselves here. They have a no mane forward line up that has some size and annoyance in them, Bird, Taylor and Roberts can create things in attack and a very astute coach who will have worked a game plan to play the Storm in and around the ruck and then look to open things up down the edges.

Also, the Storm have failed to cover their last six on the road as a favourite while they are 4-9 ATS since 2013 as a road favourite spotting more than 4 points.

I give the Titans a huge chance of the upset, I’m tipping they can win and the plus line start we took early is a nice position.

Bet 1 unit Titans +4.5 $1.91 Sportsbet


Sharks vs Broncos

-1.5 Sharks

Stats

Both sides are in form with each of them going undefeated in their last 5 matches. The Sharks have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with Brisbane but its been 7 years since the Sharks last beat the Broncos at Shark Park, with Brisbane winning the previous 3 clashes at the ground. For the 1st time this season the Broncos will be without the services of both Adam Blair and Andrew McCullough, while Alex Glenn returns after missing last week, while the Sharks have named an unchanged line up. Brisbane sit at the top of the ladder for the 4th consecutive week and haven’t been positioned lower than 5th, they are ranked 2nd in attack and 1st in defence, conceding only 1 try from their last 3 matches. Only once this season have they conceded more than 20 points in a game and only once have they not scored more than 20. They are 5-3 ATS and are 4-5 on the road since 2015 when giving up a start. In TMP’s they are currently 5-3 Under and 17-11 Under since 2014 as an away side. They have opened the scoring in all 8 matches (5 tries and 3 penalty goals) and have scored the 1st try of the match in all 8 Rounds. They have conceded just 36 1st half points at an average of 4.5 and only once have they conceded more than 1 1st half try. For the 3rd week in a row the Sharks find themselves in the Top 4 and they are currently 1-1 against sides above them on the ladder. They are ranked 4th in attack and 5th in defence and are yet to be beaten at home this season, winning 4 from 4. Their record ATS is currently 5-3 and they have a 6-7 covering record as a home underdog since 2014. In TMP’s, the Sharks are currently 5-3 Under and have an 11-6 Under record at home since 2015. Ben Barba has scored 5 tries this season and on 4 occasions he has been the sharks 1st try scorer. With both sides strong defensive records points are likely to be at a premium so the Under 36 points total looks a likely outcome.

Preview

The game of the round saved up to last billing. Sunday afternoon at Shark Park, but likely dam and wet conditions which should well further suit the Sharks forward focused and physical play.

I have no knock for the Broncos, they keep ticking over nicely, but this will be a good test for them. An away game that is not on a Friday, into a tough venue against a side also on a winning streak and some sound form. Importantly they have two major outs who both normally play very key roles, McCullough their #9 and Blair their forward and middle enforcer. They also have a further 6 players now named for the Test match who run the risk of maybe not being completely on their game. Milford has been nothing short of outstanding through recent weeks but I expect he might not get the same room and latitude to play here, and he and Hunt will be tested and spotted physically far more than they have been for the last 6 weeks.

The Sharks have developed a nice balance, strong physical forward pack, clever #9 who now gives them some quality direction and options, a sharp #6 who offers an excellent kicking game as well as attacking and ball play and some outside backs who can compliment and finish the work done inside them. This is a nice test, the Broncos sit atop of the table for a reason, this game will tell us a lot about both and where their seasons are headed.

I think the Sharks might just have a couple of things in their favour and get the chance to get the Broncos on the right week. Two key outs, dam conditions, tough physical arm wrestle, I’m with teh Sharks in what looks a rippa game.

Bet 2 units Sharks +2.0 $1.90 Sportsbet


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 9

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 8

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 8

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 8 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-14.5 Broncos vs Rabbits

-9.5 Bulldogs vs Titans

-10.5 Raiders vs Tigers

-9.5 Cowboys vs Eels

-6.5 Sharks vs Panthers

+4.5 Knights vs Eagles

+5.5 Dragons vs Roosters

-3.5 Storm vs Warriors


NRL Round 8 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Bulldogs H2H $1.30 x Sharks H2H $1.52 Ubet

Bet 2 units Raiders -6.0 $1.87 William Hill / Centrebet / Unibet

Bet 2 units Roosters H2H $1.80 CrownBet  BB

Bet 2 units Warriors +4.5 $1.92 Sportsbet or +5.5 $1.90 Topsport

Bet 1 unit Warriors tri bet > 6.5 $3.98 Sportsbet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Bulldogs, Raiders, Cowboys, Sharks, Eagles, Roosters, Warriors


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Broncos vs Rabbits

-14.5 Broncos

Stats

The Rabbitohs have won 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Broncos, including the previous 3 encounters played at Suncorp Stadium, but with 4 losses from their past 5 matches and back to back away games against last year’s Grand Finalists they appear to be up against it again this week. Last week’s loss to the Cowboys was the 2nd time in a month that they have conceded more than 40 points, while they have averaged just 12 points in attack over the last 5 weeks. They are currently 3-4 ATS and have a 2-4 covering record on the road since 2014 when getting a start. Brisbane is at home for the 3rd week in a row and has had 9 days to prepare. They have scored a total of 79 points from their last 2 matches while conceding 0 and the last time they kept their opposition to nil in back to back matches was back in 2006 when they went on to win the comp. They have won 10 of their past 11 games of FNF at Suncorp Stadium and in 10 of the 11 they have both led at half time and scored the 1st points of the match. They are ranked 2nd in attack and 1st in defence, conceding just 13 tries (equal fewest with Cowboys), giving up an average 7 points per game. 5 of the last 6 clashes between the Broncos and Rabbits have been decided by a margin of 13+, while the last 4 encounters have topped 42 points. Home teams giving up a double digit start have covered the line 9 of 11 this season and have won 11 from 11.

Preview

The Broncos have started warm favs at their last 3 starts, won all three and covered the line at two of them. While they thumped the Knights last week and showed some key class in key areas (in particular Milford) I think they got the Knights when most venerable with key player outs (including their forward leader Smith) and then suffering three concussion subs depleting their interchange and bench. The Broncos won as they should given the circumstances against the side who will finish 16th this year.

This is a different contest as I smell the Rabbits having a dig here. They have a very good record vs the Broncos winning 4 of the last 5 including winning their last 3 in Brisbane. They come off losing 3 of their last 4 including two 40 point floggings and with their tail between their legs off their poor effort in Townsville last weekend and are likely to make a number of team changes in preparation for this game. As suggested last week I’m of the opinion Maguire is struggling to keep the attention and leadership of his player group, his high intensity methods into his 5th year now rubbing very thin and right now I expect they’ll bob up and down for a few more weeks until something finally gives. Their attitude and unity has been seriously questioned this last week and I think given all of this this and up again against one of last years Grand Finalist they’ll be far more competitive this week. At the end of last season they were limping along with questionable form into R23 off a 20 point touch up at Brookvale when they pulled a stunning upset win with a 31-18 result in Townsville over the Cowboys, just weeks prior to them winning the comp. The Rabbits didn’t win another game losing their next 4 to quickly exit the season. I think this game has that sort of smell over it.

At their best this would be an excellent contest, and while rolling along their winning way I still don’t rate the Broncos form as strongly as it was through last year, but winning can often mask over all of this. They have an excellent record at home, Milford is in outstanding form, and last week albeit against weak opposition we saw some glimpses of Hunt playing some much improved play. I expect they win here but I also expect a much improved offering from the Rabbits. The only way I would play the Broncos is straight up in any all up option, or have something small on the Rabbits with the plus line start.


Bulldogs vs Titans

-9.5 Bulldogs

Stats

The Titans have won 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Bulldogs and they have also won 4 of their last 5 matches played at ANZ Stadium. They will however, need to overcome a poor recent record on the road, with just 1 win from their last 9. They have trailed at half time in their last 6 matches and only once in the previous 7 meetings with the Bulldogs have the Titans led at the break. The Titans have made a habit of a late surge, scoring the last try of the match in 4 of their last 6 and they have also scored the last try of the match in the last 4 encounters with the Bulldogs. They have a 15-12 Under record on the road since 2014 and an impressive 10-2 ATS record as an away since in the opening 8 Rounds since 2014. After being on the road for the last 2 weeks the Bulldogs are back at ANZ Stadium, where they have won 5 of their last 6 but they are still looking for their 1st home win of this season. In 6 of the Dogs last 8 at ANZ Stadium the TMP’s have finished Unders, while they are 9-5 Under in day games since 2014. The Dogs have a 3-4 covering record in 2016 and a poor 1-7 record covering as a home side since Round 18 last year. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Titans who have conceded the 1st try in their last 6 matches.

Preview

As the key stats suggest the Titans have both a good recent record vs the Bulldogs, and at Homebush, but they have now also developed a poor road record winning just 1 of their last 9 away games. They have been competitive in all of their games to date and not yet rolled over, but they are still now leaking 22 points a week in defence and are consistently being opened up in the middle in and around the play the ball. With some doubt now on Ash Taylor playing, who has been a shining light for them and up against a side who like to punch through the middle they look well up against it here.

At first glance a Bulldogs loss last week to the Warriors might not read that well but for mine two key points come from that game. Firstly, I liked the quality of the contest, it was also the Warriors strongest offering and win this season, and they had to roll their sleeves up and come from behind with a 16-6 second half effort, something they are not renowned for. Secondly, the Bulldogs were playing their second away game in a row off a short 5 day turn around into a distant away leg, and Hasler mixed up his player rotation bringing Graham and Tollman off the bench, which I thought disrupted their normal game pattern and momentum. Back at home this week and with a more normal prep I expect they win. I do think the 10 point line evens this right up, and right now when winning for the most part the Bulldogs are not doing so by big margins, I will be staying out.


Raiders vs Tigers

-10.5 Raiders

Stats

Tricky game this 1, with 2 sides that have racked up just 1 win between them from their last 10 matches combined. The Tigers have won 11 of the last 14 clashes with the Raiders, including 6 of the previous 7 meetings at GIO Stadium, but they are off the back of 5 consecutive losses as well as losing 8 of their last 9 games away from home. They have a 4-10 ATS record since 2015 as an away side, while the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 8th minute in 9 of their last 11 on the road. The Tigers have conceded the 1st try of the 2nd half in all 7 matches this season, but they have scored the last try of the match in 6 of 7. A Tigers try has been the 1st scoring play in 5 of the previous 6 clashes with the Raiders who have failed to score a 1st half point in their last 2 matches. The Raiders are coming off 2 heavy losses, conceding a total of 76 points and as mentioned last week, their record in matches after conceding 30 or more is very poor. They are leaking an average of 29 points a game, with only the Roosters and Knights conceding more tries than Canberra. They have an 11-17 record ATS at home since 2014 and a 6-10 record at home over the same period when giving up a start. 4 of the last 5 meetings have been decided by a single figure margin, while 5 of the last 6 clashes have finished Unders in TMP’s. No matter how you look there are plenty of negatives for both sides, it will be difficult for the Tigers to dust themselves off after a difficult loss last week, while the Raiders were given a massive spray after their poor back to back efforts.

Preview

Even with Austin now unlikely I have the Raiders marked to significant advantage here at a 10 point margin, much to do with where I now have the Tigers rated. They are without Woods (by far their best forward), Simona (quality edge centre) and Nofoaluma, have both Tedesco and Moses limping with injury and questionable bench depth. They have lost their last 5 amongst it some periods of play boarding on very ordinary and while they do have a good recent H2H record have a very poor out of Sydney away record (remembering their latest two out of two losses to Knights and Titans).

As only the Raiders can do they come off two shite offerings, but remain at home and meet a team more to their level and liking who are struggling for form and wrestling with these key injury outs / issues. They have made a habit of offering yo yo form cycles through recent seasons and off another poor offering with out excuse last week I’d suggest Stuart will have been all over them like a rash this week in getting their heads back in the game and focused for this. In my opinion if played right they have a significant advantage through the middle here with their list of big middle players and the smarts of Hodgson and Baptise, and I would be wearing the grass out playing this game down the middle third of the park. On the back of yardage and some room I also expect Stuart will target the Tigers right edge defence, notably the slight and inexperienced Addo-Carr who looks a major defensive liability.

I’m keen to be with the Raiders here, partly on trust, but they drop in grade here off losses to two top of the table form teams in the Eels and Sharks to an opponent far more to their liking. The line opened 6.0 and continues to move, final Tigers line up is also likely to influence it’s final position. Raiders key half Sezer has only been fair through recent weeks, expecting a big game from him to lead the way behind their forward muscle and advantage.

Bet 2 units Raiders -6.0 $1.87 William Hill / Centrebet / Unibet


Cowboys vs Eels

-9.5 Cowboys

Stats

One of the better, if not the best match of the Round with 2 of the form sides closes out Super Saturday when the Eels travel to Townsville to take on the Cowboys. The Cowboys have won 6 of the last 8 clashes with the Eels, including the last 4 clashes that have been played in Townsville. They remain undefeated at home so far this season, winning 4 from 4 and they have also won their last 3 straight. They are the only side yet to be outscored in the 2nd half and no side has scored more 2nd half points than the Cowboys. They have covered a line in their last 5 and in 5 of their last 6 at home. In 8 of their last 10 at home the TMP’s have finished Overs and this has also been the result in the previous 5 clashes with the Eels at 1300SMILES Stadium. The Eels are yet to be beaten as an away side this season, winning 3 from 3, but this is their 1st game outside of Sydney and their record in distant away games is poor, with 6 wins from 19 matches since 2012 and in 16 of those they have conceded the 1st try of the match. They have covered a line in 9 of their last 11 on the road, while their last 6 games away from home have finished Unders in TMP’s and they are 6-1 in favour of the Under after 7 Rounds. The home side has scored the opening try of the match in 6 of the last 7 clashes, while the Cowboys have scored the last try of the match in the previous 8 meetings.

Preview

I think the market again has this game priced right and for me this is a big watch game as I want to see how this new look Eels list aims up for a distant away game having previously only won 6 of their last 19 such match ups. Further to this, into round 8 this is the first out of Sydney game for the Eels who have had the luxury of 7 comfortable local based contests. Clearly they are a different offering this year on the back of some quality recruitment, but they also have the pending NRL cap breach issue (and any penalty) hanging over their head.

Cowboys have been excellent, and as mentioned last week for mine are the form team of the comp right now and I continue to improve their ratings to now be level with the Broncos at the top of the table (and the two of them rated some 9% above those then behind them. They did however drop a game back in round 2 to the Eels in Sydney, at a ground where they have a long term poor record and in a contest where their completions fell to a low mid 60%. They are back at home where they enjoy and excellent long term record and have the luxury of a 7 day home prep.

Looks the game of the round, certainly with the Cowboys but I do think they’ll be tested here from a very physical Eels offering. The Cows though have belief and confidence, and find ways to back themselves to win, I expect the same here.


Sharks vs Panthers

-6.5 Sharks

Stats

The Sharks have won 5 of the previous 7 clashes with the Panthers who are on the road for the 2nd week in a row. Recent clashes have been closely fought affairs with 5 of the last 6 decided by 8 points or less, while both sides have already been involved in plenty of tight matches this season, with all 7 of the Panthers matches having been decided by single figures and 3 of the Sharks last 4 matches also decided the same way. The Panthers have won 2 of their last 3 on the road but its 2 years since they last won back to back away games. They have covered a line in 5 of 7 in 2016 and have produced a 15-15 covering record since 2014 when getting a start. They have been an Overs side on the road in day games, producing a 10-4 result over the last 3 seasons. Only twice this season have the Panthers led at half time and they have also trailed the Sharks at the break in 6 of the previous 7 encounters. The Sharks scored 40 points in their win over the Raiders last week, which was only the 8th time in 10 years that they have scored 40 or more points in a match but only once in the 7 matches following a score of 40 or more have they been able to record a win. They have a 6-6 ATS record at home since 2015 when giving up a start, while in 2016 the home side has a 15-17 covering record in the same position. In TMP’s, the Sharks have a 10-6 Under record at home since 2015, but they are 8-2 Over at home in day matches since 2014. Since 2014 daytime matches also favour the Overs, producing an 83-65 result and with 8 of the previous 10 clashes topping 40 points, the Over 38.5 looks a likely result.

Preview

Interesting contest. The Sharks are on a nice roll winning their last 4 but I’m not so sure that victories over Raiders, Tigers, Titans and Storm reads all that strongly as a form reference, but stringing a run of wins together at any time in this comp is not easy. They get Lewis back (key in) and again showed last week the key importance of Maloney’s influence with the quality of his general kicking game and play and attack direction. They are 3 from 3 at home and are playing with a nice balance of forward strength, some ball play, and then attack options to either edge.

The Panthers continue to improve, much due to the star influence of Moylan, but they just don’t put teams away, leading the Cows by 10 two weeks ago to lose late and then three times last Monday having commanding lead margins to then fall in with a 4 point win. Off that Monday night game they have a short turn around and lose a key up front forward in McKendry. Their offload game and second phase play is difficult to defend, and the likes of Cartwright, Moylan and Martin can turn a half break into opportunity and points.

I favor the Sharks at home but I do expect this will be a typical afternoon open attacking game with plenty of points. The Sharks have scored 45 or more points at each of their last 3 games, the Panthers have been overs at 10 of their last 14 away games and these two sides have been over at 8 of their last 10 H2H contests. With a clear weather forecast through the weekend and into Sunday afternoon I’m expecting more of the same and am with the overs.

With the updated forecast of rain now to continue through the weekend we will pass on any bet in this game.


Knights vs Eagles

+4.5 Knights

Stats

The 1st of 3 matches to commemorate Anzac Day sees the Sea Eagles travel to Newcastle for the 1st time in 4 seasons when they take on the Knights. Manly has won 8 of the last 10 games played against the Knights, but they have only won 2 of their past 11 matches played at Hunter Stadium. After playing 4 games in 19 days, the Sea Eagles will welcome an 11 day preparation for this match, but the respite will be short lived as they are back on a 5 day turnaround next week when they take on the Cowboys and may already have 1 eye looking ahead to that game. They go into this match at their shortest price as an away side since Round 23, 2014 and they have a 7-7 record as an away favourite since 2014. Only once this season have the Sea Eagles led at half time and only the Dragons and Knights have scored fewer 1st half points than Manly. The Knights are coming off the 2nd biggest loss in their history after Brisbane put the cleaners through them last week. They return home where they are yet to suffer a defeat this season, after recording 1 win and a draw. They have had Over results in 5 of their 7 matches in 2016 and 11 of their last 15 day games at Hunter Stadium have also finished Overs. 11 of the last 12 clashes between these sides have resulted in a winning margin of 13+ points, while the half time leader has won 11 of the last 12. The Knights have a perfect 12-0 record ATS as a home underdog since 2014, while the Sea Eagles have a 4-11 record when covering as a road favourite

Preview

I want to wait till Sunday and see where the markets end up here but if the Knights get to a silly line position (beyond 8) as I expect they might then I am likely to have a small play here.

Yes the Knights were flogged last week but they were into a distant away game (major weakness with a young list) and lost a couple of key players late (in particular key forward leader Jeremy Smith) and then suffered 3 key concussion player outs through the game. The one thing I am sure of with Brown’s approach this season will be ensuring that this side targets and aims up with their home games and we already have evidence of this with a draw and win to date from their two home contests. If there is one team that has infectious local following it’s the Knights, they had over 21,000 here two weeks ago and up against a profile opponent like the Eagles on a day like Anzac Day I’m sure they’ll have another big following and certainly be up for the contest.

What makes this even more interesting is some key stats around the Eagles here. They have only won 2 of their last 11 games in Newcastle and only covered the line at 4 of their last 15 away games when road favs. They remain without Cherry-Evans and have Parcell still in doubt and right now have a 3 and 4 season record and some inconsistent form. They will have had a better prep this week with a longer week turn around and having played at home last Thursday they’ll have had no travel intruputions, and for them to stay in touch with the semi final contention this is a game they must bank. While I expect they win I think this will be much tougher and tighter than many do.

Tipping the Eagles but if there was a major upset this weekend then this looks the game. I want to wait to see final weather conditions, likely team line ups and the market positions into Monday morning before deciding but if all of this was to line up and something like +8.5 was available then the Knights do look some value for a small interest.

Monday: Knights have been heavily bet, but I just can’t find the right position to want to play. Plus 6.0 is probably ok, but I wanted some comfort with +8.0 or better, and on the back of market support they have continued to firm the other way so we will pass.


Dragons vs Roosters

+5.5 Dragons

Stats

The Roosters hold a significant advantage over the Dragons, having won six of the last seven clashes, but the Dragons have had some success against the Roosters in the traditional Anzac Day clash, winning 6 of the last 8 match ups. The Dragons will have to overcome a poor recent record at Allianz Stadium, winning only 2 of their last 9 matches at the ground and while the Roosters have generally been tough to beat at Allianz Stadium (won 9 of last 10 in 2015) they are yet to record a win at the ground in 2016, losing 3 from 3. Both sides come into this match with very average form, the Roosters recording just 1 win in the opening 7 Rounds, while the Dragons ended their run of outs when they beat the Titans in a lack luster match which they could well have lost. Scoring points has been an issue for both sides, with the Roosters ranked 14th in attack, while the Dragons are 16th. In 9 of the Dragons 14 halves this season they have failed to score a try and they average less than 3 2nd half points. They Dragons are 3-4 ATS and have a perfect 7-0 Under record in TMP’s, while the Roosters are 2-5 ATS and 5-2 Over, with only 2 of their matches totaling less than 40 points. The Dragons have scored the 1st try of the match in 7 of the last 8 meetings with the Roosters on Anzac Day, while the 1st try of the match hasn’t been scored until after the 8th minute in 8 of the last 10 clashes. TMP’s of less than 37.5 looks a likely outcome with both sides struggling for points, while matches where Ben Cummins is in charge are currently 6-1 in favour of the Under.

Preview

A few key issues I think have the Roosters ready for this. My understanding and recent media speculation that Cordner plays and there is some possibility that Waerea-Hargreaves may well be a late inclusion. I think it was also obvious in their close defeat to the Panthers on Monday night that their heads and focus was more on the game ahead (Dragons) than the game at hand, with an offering well down on attitude and intensity, I’m sure that will return in spades for this coming clash. The Roosters are also advantaged in playing at home and have some strike and points in them off a preparedness to play with the ball where as that is certainly a risk with their opponents.

The Dragons come through what was a low game and form reference for mine (Titans), one they could well easily have lost and I have this marked a 5.0 to 6.0 handicap contest. Off the back of significant focus and a poor losing streak they lifted last week for a must win effort but again were very patchy through out (if not ordinary at times) and still look very pedestrian and predicable in attack. They also have to be some risk of let down off having cracked a break through win, although an Anzac Day game should lift them.

I’m keen this is the right week for the Roosters, much like last week for the Dragons at 1 and 6 this is a must win and season turning game for the Roosters. They are advantaged playing at home, have a key in and possibly a further one to be announced, have some ball play and attack in them which should be a key advantage here and I think will be very hard to beat.

Bet 2 units Roosters H2H $1.80 CrownBet


Storm vs Warriors

-2.5 Storm

Stats

There is a long standing rivalry between these 2 sides and more often than not the Warriors aim up in this clash regardless of what previous form they may have. The Warriors have won 3 of the previous 5 clashes and have no fears travelling to AAMI Park, with the wins split evenly from the 6 meetings. A half time lead has proved crucial, as only once in the previous 14 clashes has the side leading at half time been run down. The Warriors are off their best effort of the season to move from 13th to 11th on the ladder. They are currently ranked 4th in attack, but are a lowly 14th in defence. They have a 3-4 ATS record but have covered a line in just 3 of their last 13 as a road dog. Surprisingly the Warriors have won 4 of their last 5 games of MNF on the road, which includes 2 wins over Melbourne. A Warriors try has been the first scoring play in the 6 of the last 8 clashes with the Storm. Melbourne are currently ranked 4th in defence but have struggled for attack points to be ranked 12th. They are currently 6-1 in favour of the Unders, while they have a 9-4 Under record at home under lights since 2015. 9 of the last 12 meetings have been decided by a margin of 1-12 points, while 4 of the last 6 meetings have topped 42 points. The Under again got the chocolates in Round 7 to be 6-1 season to date.

Preview

The Warriors have a very good long term record vs the Storm and I think get them at the right time here. They were only beaten late when they last met earlier this season and I think have improved significantly since and although not the best travelers have an excellent 50% win record in Melbourne where every second person in the crowd will be Kiwi nationals out to support the bro’s. While Tuivasa-Sheck is a key season out I think we may have seen a turning point for them with key selection changes through recent weeks with Leuluai’s inclusion (and now importantly in the halves where he has a great combination with Johnson); Lolohea much closer to the ball (and now playing fullback – this kid is a rare talent) and the inclusion of Ligi Sao off their bench (big bopper with a big motor). Last week they rolled up their sleeves and came from behind with a good win against a good competitive side, importantly they have strike and points in them and I see that as a huge advantage here.

I mentioned back in the early weeks of this season that while I couldn’t put my finger on it the Storm just didn’t look “right”, nor anything of their former self. They have lost 2 of their last 4, dam lucky to have escaped with those two late wins, have not scored more than 20 points and have looked almost in slow motion and pedestrian in attack. Smith almost looks like he has the “yips” he is so off pace with the game speed and his attack play and they have a list of key outs on either edge. It’s also been very obvious that if they end up in a points shoot out they are in deep trouble, in particular if having to chase the lead.

Storm a huge risk for mine here, I don’t like their form at all and while advantaged being back at home the Warriors are one team who love this challenge. If we now did a little deeper their form reads very poorly yet they are warm home favs? Lucky late win last week vs Tigers, a game which now smells given the Tigers pumping last Saturday, their prior win also a lucky late win at home vs Knights who sit at the bottom of the table and should well have won.

I like the Warriors off last week, this is a much better team list, some key changes plus they get the big man Vatuvei back. They have attack, line break and points in them, if they can move this game up temo, play with some speed for mine they’ll have the Storm well out of their comfort zone, if they can jump them with points and lead then this will get very interesting. I like the Warriors, I want to be with them, and I would not be surprised if them came up with their best win season to date.

Bet 2 units Warriors +4.5 $1.92 Sportsbet or +5.5 $1.90 Topsport

Bet 1 unit Warriors tri bet > 6.5 $3.98 Sportsbet


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 8

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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