NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


 

Rd 22 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+8.5 Dragons vs Broncos

+3.5 Eels vs Eagles

+14.5 Knights vs Bulldogs

-5.5 Sharks vs Raiders

-24.5 Storm vs Rabbits

-4.5 Titans vs Warriors

+9.5 Tigers vs Cowboys

-3.5 Panthers vs Roosters

 


NRL Round 22 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Dragons vs Broncos under 37.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 1 unit Raiders H2H $2.93 Pinnacle

Bet 2 units Raiders +6.5 $1.92 Pinnacle / Luxbet / Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Storm -18.0 Pinnacle $1.93 / Topsport / or -18.5

Bet 4 units Cowboys -1.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / TabSportsbet BB

Notes:

Cowboys bet nominated a week ago, and I want to anchor this for this weekend we are now well ahead of the market.

Broncos get key players back, Bennett will be focused on D and keeping things simple, Broncos have a long record of unders when on the road and I expect they are much better here

Eagles some risk, Eels have 3 key ins and back at home,the plus looks a nice advantage – but I want 8 or more

Sharks major risk this week for mine, Raiders have some advantage here, I like them H2H and the plus position

Weather and market watch on Storm-Rabbits, Titans-Warriors and Panthers-Roosters, I think the visitors in both later games are positioned to advantage

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Current record vs Top 8 prior to this round

8/9 Sharks

5/7 Storm

5/9 Raiders

4/8 Bulldogs

4/8 Cowboys

5/12 Dragons

3/9 Broncos

3/10 Panthers

3/10 Warriors

3/12 Eels

2/8 Titans

2/9 Tigers

1/9 Eagles

1/10 Roosters

0/9 Knights

0/7 Rabbits


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Eagles, Bulldogs, Raiders, Storm, Warriors, Cowboys, Roosters


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Dragons vs Broncos

+8.5 Dragons

Stats

The Dragons and Broncos kick off Round 22 in what shapes as a dour contest with 2 sides that are well and truly struggling for form. Wins have been few and far between for both sides in recent weeks (and months) with the Dragons losing 4 straight (& 6 of last 9), while the Broncos have lost 4 of their last 5 (& 7 of last 9). Brisbane has pretty much owned the Dragons since 2010, winning 10 of the last 11 clashes, including the previous 2 meetings at WIN Stadium. A Broncos try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 9 straight against the Dragons who have conceded the 1st try in 3 of their last 4. Brisbane is 8-11 ATS and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 8, but have covered in 4 of the last 5 against the Dragons. They are 10-9 Over in TMP’s, with 6 of their last 7 finishing that way, while 4 of the last 6 clashes with the Dragons have also gone Over. The Broncos have a 7-5 record against sides in the bottom half of the ladder with 10 of the 12 matches having a margin outcome of 13+. Despite their poor recent form, Brisbane’s attack still ranks 5th, while both their defence and differential rank 6th . Corey Oates is Brisbane’s leading try scorer with 12 but he has failed to score in 3 of his last 4 matches. The Dragons have won 6 of their last 7 matches at WIN Stadium but they are a 4 and 8 against sides currently positioned in the Top 8. They are 9-10 ATS and 6-6 against the Top 8, while they have a 7-4 covering record at WIN Stadium since 2014. The Dragons have the 2nd worst attack in the competition, while their defence rates 10th . They are 13-6 Under in TMP’s, with a 10-2 Under record against the Top 8, while 10 of their last 12 matches at WIN Stadium have also finished Under with only 2 of them finishing higher than 36. Kurt Mann continues to lead the way as Dragons 1st try scorer with 8 and he has now scored a try in his last 6 matches. The home team has failed to cover in the last 8 matches when Ben Cummins has been in charge.

Preview

Two sides still looking for form and a break through win. Broncos have lost 7 of their last 9 and conceded 30 or more points at 4 their last 5 games, but now have key player returns with Gillett, Thaiday and McGuire heading the list. I’m expecting a much improved offering from them here, focused on defence. Dragons have key outs with Frizelle and Thompson, form very poor losing their last 4, attack pedestrian, hard to get excited with though they did show some signs last week of trying to be more expansive yet just went sideways and still only scored 10 points…

Trick game, Broncos look to get their chance to roll their sleeves up and get back on the map here. Longer term Broncos road record is strongly unders, they do like to focus on defence and it is also very much Bennett’s mantra when backs up against the wall. Wet track, dour conditions, Dragons lacing two key backrowers and any attack, unders for me.

Broncos to win in dour low scoring arm wrestle.

Bet 1 unit Dragons vs Broncos under 37.5 $1.90 Sportsbet


Eels vs Eagles

+3.5 Eels

Stats

Friday Night Football sees 2 arch enemies going head to head when the Manly Sea Eagles travel to Pirtek Stadium to take on the Parramatta Eels. Manly has everything to play for, with a Finals spot still up for grabs, while the Eels are playing for nothing but pride. The Eels have recorded 4 consecutive victories over the Sea Eagles and a win this week will be just the 3rd time in their history that they have recorded 5 straight wins over their arch rivals. Bragging rights have been shared equally at Pirtek Stadium with both sides recording 11 wins each, while Manly holds a 33 game all time advantage. The Eels have won only 3 of their 7 games at their traditional home ground this season, while they are 5-4 against sides in the bottom 8. They have lost 4 of their last 5 and conceded 22 points or more in all 4 of those losses. They rank 12th in attack, while their defence ranks a respectable 4th, giving them a 17 point differential that ranks 8th . Parramatta is 11-8 ATS with a 3-4 cover record at Pirtek Stadium, while they have covered in their last 5 clashes with the Sea Eagles. In TMP’s they are 12-7 Under, while 4 of the last 5 clashes with Manly have also finished Under. The Eels have conceded the 1st try in 12 of their previous 15 games played at Pirtek Stadium and they have also conceded the 1st try in 6 of the last 8 meetings with Manly. After 7 straight losses, the Sea Eagles have now won 4 on the trot to be just 1 win outside the Top 8. Manly were conceding an average of 25 points a game prior to Round 17, but have conceded an average of just 12 points a game since the start of their winning run, with only the Storm conceding fewer points during that period. They have won 4 of their last 5 against sides in the bottom half of the ladder and have won 5 of their last 6 as a road favourite. The Sea Eagles attack and defence both rank 11th, while their -40 differential also rates 11th . Manly are 9-10 ATS and have covered in their last 5 straight, while they have also covered in 4 of their last 5 against a bottom 8 opponent. In TMP’s they are 10-9 in favour of the Under, while 4 of their last 6 away games have also finished Under. A Sea Eagles try has been the 1st scoring play in their last 3 matches and in all 3 of those, the try has been scored by the 4 th minute. Jorge Taufua has scored a try in 6 of his last 7 appearances for Manly.

Preview

The Eels are not legless here. They finally get 3 key player returns with Scott, Jennings and M’au, they play from their traditional home track and they have a very good record of aiming up against their arch rival opponent. While they have been fairly beaten at their last few outings they have been under manned, have still retained effort and attitude, and they weren’t that far away from the Tigers last week where a couple of plays could have gone their way and have made that game far closer. What I am suggesting as while no rock solid finals opponent they haven’t completely rolled over and put the white flag up just yet.

The Eagles have been good to us through their recent run of wins but lets also be careful that the form is paper thin and we have picked them up when beating the likes of the Knights, Rabbits and Dragons, all bottom of the table losing teams. They are also not putting their foot to the floor for 80 minutes against these lowly sides, a poor sign, and are heavily reliant on playing their attack to just one side of the field (left) off DCE which I am sure Brad Arthur will be a wake up to. Also, if you were to have a long look at the record of sides who have beaten the Knights they do not fare well at the line the following week (soft win, complacent mental let down).

The Eagles still have something to play for, and I expect they can squeak home with a win here, but I do give the Eels a live chance, +6.5 is probably enough if you want to have an angle on teh game but for me I want + the key number of 8 or better if it was to possibly become available on Friday afternoon.


Knights vs Bulldogs

+14.5 Knights

Stats

The Knights play host to the Bulldogs in the 1st of 3 matches on Super Saturday. Newcastle has a good recent record over the Bulldogs, winning 6 of 8 from 2010 to 2013 before the Dogs recorded back to back wins in the 2 most recent meetings. It’s the 1st of 4 consecutive home games for the Knights who will be looking to avoid a new club record of 14 straight losses. They have lost their last 6 at home after their 1st and only win of the season back in Round 6. The Knights remain in 16th spot and rank last in both attack and defence. Newcastle is 7-12 ATS, with a 4-4 cover record at home, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 at home with a double digit advantage. They are 11-8 Over in TMP’s and have traditionally been a big Overs side at home in day games, producing a 14-7 result since 2014, while their last 6 Saturday afternoon matches have all finished Over, but clashes with the Bulldogs defy the trend as only twice in the last 13 meetings have the TMP’s been higher than 38 with an average of 36. A Knights try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Dogs at Hunter Stadium, while the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 7th minute in 8 of the last 10 clashes. The Bulldogs returned to the winners circle last week but were hardly convincing. They have won 5 of their last 6 and 7 of their last 8 against a bottom 8 opponent, while 7 of their 12 wins have come on the road. The Dogs rank 6 th in attack, while both their defence and differential also rank 6th . They are 7-12 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 4 straight and in 4 of their last 5 when laying a double digit start. Road favourites laying more than a converted try have covered in 8 of the last 9 day games. In TMP’s the Dogs are 10-9 Over and have gone Over in 7 of their past 9, while they are 5-1 Over in day games this season. The Bulldogs have failed to score more than 6 2nd half points in the last 7 clashes with the Knights. Curtis Rona is the Bulldogs leading try scorer with 10 but he has failed to score in his last 2 matches.

Preview

Rubbish game. Bulldogs win, but have been pathetic for weeks.


Sharks vs Raiders

-5.5 Sharks

Stats

It’s 1st versus 3rd in what is clearly the match of the Round when the ladder leaders host the Raiders at Shark Park. While the Sharks winning run came to an end when they drew with the Titans, they are still undefeated from their last 16 matches, but the Raiders could well be the 1st side since Round 3 to deliver a defeat to Cronulla. The Sharks hold a slight 35-30 all time advantage over the Raiders who have won the last 2 clashes at Shark Park. High scoring affairs have been common place between these 2 sides in recent years, with 8 of the last 10 clashes totaling 40 points or more. The Raiders come into this match off the back of a 50 point demolition job on the Rabbitohs but they step up in class here against a side that hasn’t sat lower than 2nd since Round 10. Canberra has been 1 of the form sides in recent times though, winning 8 of 9 since Round 11 and no side has scored more points than the Raiders during that period. They have won 5 of their last 6 against their Top 8 counterparts and only once all season have they been positioned out of the 8. They come into this Round with the 7th best defence, while they are the NRL’s Number 1 attacking side, averaging 27 points a game. The Raiders are 12-7 ATS and have covered in 5 of their last 6 on the road, while they have also covered in 5 of their last 6 against the Top 8. Canberra is the Number 1 Overs side in the NRL, producing a 14-5 result, with 8 of their last 9 all finishing Over, while 9 of the last 10 matches where Ashley Klein has been in charge have finished Overs with all but 1 of them totaling 42 or more. The Sharks are yet to taste defeat at home in 2016, winning 10 from 10 and have won 14 of their last 16 as a starting favourite. Cronulla are the 3rd best defensive side in the competition, while their attack and differential both rate 2nd. Like the Raiders, the Sharks have a 12-7 record ATS but have covered in only 2 of their last 7 at home when laying a start. Cronulla is 11-8 Under in TMP’s, with a 7-3 Under record at home, while they are 12-6 Under since 2015 as a home favourite. A Sharks try has been the 1st scoring play in 10 of the last 12 meetings with the Raiders. Valentine Holmes has scored 7 tries from his 9 appearances at Shark Park this season.

Preview

I do like the Raiders here. They are not with out some risk (it is the Raiders after all) but they have plenty going for them here in what looks like it might be the right week. The positives for them is they get the Sharks when venerable, off a short turn around Monday night travel away game (and extra time), plus I think the mental expectations and baggage of this long undefeated run is weighting them (the Sharks) down a little. The Raiders have a big physical side, big bench, and are playing with some positive confidence right now and Stuart will be very pumped up to have them up and set for this.

The Raiders tho carry two risks. One is that they have been poor under expectation, and the last time then went into a game like this (vs a top of table contender) they shit themselves with a very very poor first 50 minutes vs the Broncos and had their pants pulled down. Stuart needs to keep them confident, but balanced, and it’s not always his strength. Their other major issue and will likely become even more apparent into the finals is the coach’s long term inability to coach attack in the final 20 mtrs red attacking zone. He is clueless, has been for 10 yrs, and staggering having been such a sharp international #7 and played under one of the best attacking minds in Sheens. As I have stated previously, the final 20 is about structuring and set up your sets of 6 to open a hole, create an overlap, put someone through the line, target a weak defender and play a smart kick piece. The majority of NRL teams today pass left and right for the sake of it, play after play and have no farking idea what they are doing or wanting to do, and just hope that they can either crash someone over the line or an individual piece of brilliance will create a try. Watch a replay of the first 30 minutes last week of the Raiders, just terrible, clueless, no idea, no plan, poorly coached, they should have scored at least 3 more tries. They are super when playing attack from a distance, they play with width, use the ball, momentum, have a preparedness to attack, I love it, but it all turns to you know what when they get anchored in that final 20 mtrs. So we have some risk here that they don’t murder possession when required.

I want to take the Sharks on. They have been close to a loss for some weeks and have some key things against them here. They are a good side, but a risk. The Raiders get their chance, they have much in their favour and if they can start well and hold their nerve they can give this a big shake. I want to be with them both ways.

Bet 1 unit Raiders H2H $2.93 Pinnacle

Bet 2 units Raiders +6.5 $1.92 Pinnacle / Luxbet / Sportsbet


Storm vs Rabbits

-24.5 Storm

Stats

The Rabbitohs travel to Melbourne to take on the Storm to close out Super Saturday in what shapes as a total mismatch. The Storm is in a rich vein of form, winning 12 of their last 13 and have opened at their equal shortest price of the season, while the Rabbitohs are faced with 9 straight losses for the 1st time since 2008 and will start at their longest price of the season. Melbourne has won 8 of the last 9 clashes and will be full of confidence to make it 9 from 10 as the Rabbitohs have never won a game in Melbourne, losing all 12 of the previous matches played in Victoria. Melbourne has won 8 of 9 at AAMI Park in 2016 and only once this season have they been beaten by a side currently sitting out of the Top 8, having won 9 of 10. The Storm are the Number 1 defensive unit in the NRL, while their differential of 244 also ranks 1st. Melbourne ranks 4th in attack, with an average of 24 PPG. They are 11-8 ATS and have covered in 9 of their last 12, while they are 6-6 at home since 2014 when laying a double digit start. The Storm continues to be the Number 1 Unders side in the NRL, producing a 14-5 result, with their last 3 totaling 36 or less, while 9 of the previous 10 clashes with the Rabbitohs have totaled 34 or less. Only once since Round 8 has the Storm trailed at half time and they have won 15 of 16 with a half time lead and only once in the last 13 meetings have the Rabbits led the Storm at the break. The Rabbitohs are coming off their biggest loss in 10 years after conceding 54 points against the Raiders and they have lost 11 of their last 12 when backing up from a 13+ defeat. They have conceded 20 points or more in their last 13 matches and also in all 7 games against a current Top 8 opponent, where they have lost 7 from 7, 6 of them by a margin of 13+. They have also failed to score a 1st half point in 5 of those 7 matches against the Top 8. Souths remain in 13th position on the ladder and have the same ranking in attack, while they are now the 2 nd worst defensive side in the NRL, conceding an average of 25.5 PPG. Souths are 6-13 ATS and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 8 and 12 of their last 14 when getting a start. They are 12-7 Over in TMP’s, with 4 of their last 5 away games totaling 42 or more. The Rabbitohs have trailed at half time in 13 of their last 14 matches and only the Knights have scored fewer 1st half points than South Sydney.

Preview

I have been waiting to see what the final weather looked here and given no rain forecast I am keep to play.

I am working on the basis of Smith and Cronk playing, my understanding is that they will and they have trained a full week this week unlike recent weeks where they have only done the final session. If you are nervous on this you might want to wait till an hour prior to game time for final team announcements.

The Rabbits are rubbish, and falling apart quickly, thumped last week by 50 in what could easily have been 70. They get a couple of players back including Inglis, but he is playing busted and they have little harmony or cohesion given all of the key team exits, injuries and changes through recent months, most notably in defence where they are just being flogged. They also have a disastrous record in Melbourne.

The Storm are top of the table, utterly professional. come off a quality away win over the Cowboys, have been super at home, and will just methodically work through their gears here and by games end I expect to be 30 or more points in front. What we also know is that they pride themselves in defence, and in giving up a big line I get significant comfort in this, add in teh fact the Rabbits just don’t have points in them.

I was conservative when I marked this 24.5, I could easily have been much closer to 30. Keen the Storm do the business here.

Bet 2 units Storm -18.0 Pinnacle $1.93 / Topsport / or -18.5


Titans vs Warriors

-4.5 Titans

Stats

There will be plenty to play for when the Titans host the Warriors in what is forecast to be a wet Sunday afternoon on the Gold Coast, with the loser likely to drop out of the Top 8. The Warriors have a dominant recent record over the Titans, having won 10 of the last 11 clashes, including winning their last 5 straight at CBus Super Stadium. Recent meetings have typically been high scoring affairs, with the last 8 clashes (and 15 of the last 17) all topping 40 points. The Warriors moved back into the 8 at the expense of last week’s opponent, the Panthers, in what was their 3rd consecutive match decided by Golden Point. Their last 3 matches on Australian soil have also been decided by GP with the Warriors losing all 3 to make it 5 losses from their last 6 away games. The Warriors are 3 & 6 against the Top 8 and have won only 1 of 5 against a current Top 8 opponent as the away side. They rank 8th in attack and 12th in defence, giving them a -17 differential that ranks 9th. For the 6th time this season, the Warriors will start as a road dog and they are yet to register a win in 2016 from that position and have lost 15 of their last 16 long term as a road outsider. The Warriors are 8-11 ATS, with a 5-5 road record, while their last away game was the only time they have covered as a road dog in a day match since 2014. In TMP’s they are 11-8 Over, with a 7-3 Over record on the road, while they are 5-1 Over from their last 6 day games away from home with 4 of them totaling 60 or more. The Titans are unbeaten in their last 3 after ending the Sharks winning run in Golden Point on Monday night, while they have lost only 1 of their last 5 at home. They have also won 4 of their last 6 as a home favourite. The Titans have now been in the Top 8 for the last 3 weeks, which is their longest period of the season that they have spent in the 8. Their attack and differential both rank 7th, while they are 8th in defence. The Titans have been the darlings of the NRL in line betting, covering in 14 of their 19 matches, including 8 of their last 10, while they have a 7-3 cover record at home. They are 10-9 Over in TMP’s, while 6 of their last 8 at home have finished Under. They have also had Unders results in 7 of their last 9 day games at home. Chris McQueen has scored 5 tries from the Titans last 5 home games.

Preview

Line ball game for me with a slight leaning for Warriors but tricky. Titans lose Roberts, key out at #6 and then get Hayne and the surrounding hype (which I think is very positive for the club, district and the game). They also get Peats back, another key in. The Warriors have a key out at #9 with Luke not playing.

There are two key issues for mine. The Titans come off a big game last Monday night, high quality, physical and extra time then some potential let down, and we saw the Sharks falter last night. I like what they are doing, I’m a rap on them, they have been very good to us this season, but this is a different set up for them as the highly focused fav. The next issue is the Warriors long term record both H2H and at the ground over the Titans, they have won a staggering 10 of the last 11 contests and their last 5 at the Gold Coast. Some sides just have a boggy side, and or grounds that they love playing at, and clearly there is some of that happening here. This game will now also draw a big crowd, but given the Kiwi following on the Gold Coast half of them will be Kiwi’s, so the Warriors will have their fair share of local support today as well – and importantly they turn up here with no focus, pressure or expectation on them and that can be when they play their best footy.

It’s a good match up of two teams that will look to play some positive footy. I love the Lolohea, Fusitua, Leuluai and Johnson combinations, skill and attack all over it. The Titans also have some smarts and punch with Peats, Taylor, Mead and then the use of Hayne most likely at fullback. Both teams also like to play off load and second phase footy, so I’m sure we will see plenty of open play and attack. I have a slight lean to the Warriors in what looks an excellent open game.

The total points overs looks the obvious play but with both goal kickers (Luke, Roberts) missing and Johnson having had some issues recently with a groin strain 48 might be a decent total to chase if missing kicks for goal.


Tigers vs Cowboys

+9.5 Tigers

Stats

History shows it’s now 16 years since the Cowboys last recorded a victory at Leichardt Oval, with the Tigers winning the last 5 clashes at the venue. It’s more than a year since these sides last met, with that match eventually becoming the lowest scoring match of the 2015 season and it was also the Cowboys 1st and only win over the Tigers in Sydney since 2004, with the Tigers winning the 11 previous clashes as the home team. The Cowboys have won 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Tigers who have lost 7 of their last 11 matches at Leichardt Oval. North Queensland has won only 1 of their last 5 away games but have won 5 of their last 8 as a road favourite. They have dropped from 3rd to 4th on the ladder after last week’s loss to the Storm but still rank as the 2 nd best defensive unit in the NRL, while they are now 3rd in attack rankings which sees their 201 differential also rank 3rd. The Cowboys have won 9 of their last 10 against sides currently sitting in the bottom half of the ladder and have covered the line in 8 of those. They are 10-9 ATS with a 4-5 cover record on the road, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 when laying a start as an away side. The Cowboys are 11-8 Under in TMP’s, with 8 of their last 10 totaling 38 or less, including their last 5 away games. Antonio Winterstein continues to lead the way as the Cowboys leading try scorer with 11 and was the only try scorer in the previous meeting with the Tigers. The Tigers have won 3 of their last 4 and their last 3 at home but all of those wins have come against bottom 8 opposition. They have lost 7 of their last 8 against the Top 8 sides which doesn’t bode well for their Finals aspirations as 4 of their last 5 matches are against those sides currently in the 8. Only once from their 9 matches against the Top 8 have they outscored their opponent in the 2 nd half, averaging just 7 points, while conceding an average of 18. The Tigers are just outside the 8 in 9th spot, while they are 13th in attack and 12th in defence. They are 11-8 ATS and have covered in their last 6 straight, while they have covered in 6 of 8 games this season when getting more than a converted try advantage. In TMP’s they are 11-8 Over, while 7 of the last 9 clashes with the Cowboys have totaled 42 or more. The Tigers have conceded the 1st try of the match in the last 6 meetings with the Cowboys and in 6 of their last 8 when versing a Top 8 side. James Tedesco & David Nofoaluma have combined to score more than half of the Tigers tries since Round 13, with Tedesco scoring in 4 of his last 6 and Nofoaluma bagging 6 from his last 7 appearances.

Preview

Key ins and outs here with Brooks out for Tigers and Thurston in for Cowboys.

We will see two things about the Tigers here, how deep is the recent winning form through Eels and Dragons, I’m not so sure it is all that strong, and how they play against good opposition with makeshift #9 options and now no Brooks. In my opinion Taylor has let his person dislike and agenda with Farah get way in front of the best thing for his team, and it’s almost laughable to see a makeshift winger who struggles to maintain his position in 1st grade be used as your back up dummy half during crucial periods of the game. My understanding is that the finer detail for Farah’s severance and pay out with the Tigers was done last Wednesday and he will early this week be announced as a new signing with the Rabbits on a 2 yr deal.

The Cowboys come off strong form through the Storm, put the cleaners through the Bulldogs only weeks ago and clearly have Thurston back. This ground is a long term boggy ground for them, having only ever won the once here, but I am expecting off a loss last week the result here and how they go about it is important.

Our early bet last week has put us well ahead of where the market now is, I expect Cowboys win and we’ll be very happy at anything better than a 2 point margin.

Bet 4 units Cowboys -1.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / TabSportsbet BB


Panthers vs Roosters

-3.5 Panthers

Stats

Monday Night Football heads to the foot of the mountains where the Panthers host the Roosters to close out Round 22. The Panthers defeated the Roosters when they last met in Round 7 and will be looking for back to back wins over the Tri-Colours for the 1st time since 2012. Penrith had won 2 in a row before going down to the Warriors in Golden Point which saw them drop from 8th to 9th and not since Round 12 have they been able to remain in the Top 8 in consecutive weeks. They have 1 of the softest draws in the closing Rounds, with 4 of their 5 remaining matches coming against sides currently ranked below them. The Panthers rank 9th defensively, with both their attack and differential ranking 10th. They are 10-9 ATS but have failed to cover in their last 5 at Pepper Stadium and 5 of their last 6 when laying a start, while they have also failed to cover in 3 of the last 5 against the Roosters. Penrith are 10-9 Under in TMP’s and 7-2 Under off a loss, while the last 4 clashes with the Roosters have all finished Under, with none of them totaling more than 37. Monday night games are also in heavy favour of the Unders, with a 14-6 result season to date. The Roosters have lost 6 of their last 7 but only 1 of those 7 matches has been against sides out of the Top 8. They have lost 8 of 9 on the road, including their last 6 straight, but have won their last 2 at Pepper Stadium. The Roosters rank 14th in both attack and defence, while their differential of -126 ranks 13th. The Tri-Colours are 7-11 ATS and have covered in only 2 of their 9 away games. They are 13-6 Over in TMP’s, with 7 of their last 9 finishing that way. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in their last 6 matches and in 5 of them, the try has been scored by the 8th minute. The side to score the 1st points of the match has won the previous 9 clashes

Preview

I want to see how the weather fares Sunday and into Monday here, the forecast is for clearing and then clear Monday. I think the Roosters are a nice chance here and a likely small play with the plus.

Pearce now in significant doubt to play this evening so no play, no interest in 6.5 line either way. Market has moved from 4 to 6.5, without Pearce Roosters lose plenty and likely lose but I have no confidence in this Panthers side when expected favs winning and doing so by 8. Happy to pass.


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 21

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 21

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 21 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

0.0 Roosters vs Broncos

-16.5 Bulldogs vs Dragons

-2.5 Warriors vs Panthers

+5.5 Eels vs Tigers

-5.5 Cowboys vs Storm

+9.5 Rabbits vs Raiders

-22.5 Eagles vs Knights

+5.5 Titans vs Sharks

 


NRL Round 21 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Roosters H2H $2.00 TabSportsbet

Bet 2 units Bulldogs-Dragons over 39.5 $1.90 Luxbet / Unibet / TopSport

Bet 1 unit Cowboys +2.5 $1.90 Ubet / $1.85 Unibet

Bet 2 units Raiders tri bet >6.5 $1.81 William Hill

Bet 3 units Eagles -18.5 $1.91 William Hill BB

 

Round 22

Bet 4 units Cowboys -1.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / TabSportsbet BB

 

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Current record vs Top 8 prior to this round

8/9 Sharks

5/7 Storm

5/9 Raiders

4/8 Bulldogs

4/8 Cowboys

5/12 Dragons

3/9 Broncos

3/10 Panthers

3/10 Warriors

3/12 Eels

2/8 Titans

2/9 Tigers

1/9 Eagles

1/10 Roosters

0/9 Knights

0/7 Rabbits


Individual Game Tips

Roosters, Bulldogs, Panthers, Tigers, Cowboys, Raiders, Eagles, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Roosters vs Broncos

0.0 Roosters

Stats

Two sides desperately out of form kick off Round 21 when the Roosters host the Broncos from Allianz Stadium. Wins have been few and far between for both sides recently, with the Roosters losing 8 of their last 9, while Brisbane has lost 6 of their last 8. A finals birth has long been off the table for the Roosters but Brisbane is still a chance of a Top 4 finish, albeit a slim one. Brisbane holds a 25-16 all time advantage over the Roosters, while wins have been shared equally since 2009, with both sides recording 5 wins each. The Roosters have won 3 of the last 4 clashes at Allianz Stadium and in 3 of those they have kept Brisbane scoreless in the 1st half. The Roosters have lost 6 straight and must have 1 of the toughest runs home in the comp, as this will be their 4th game in 5 that they play a Top 6 opponent, while 4 of their last 5 are against sides currently in the 8. They have lost 9 from 9 previously against sides in the Top 8 and have lost 8 of 10 at Allianz Stadium this season. The Roosters have been anchored in 15th spot since Round 9, while their attack, defence and differential all rank 14th. They are 6-12 ATS and have failed to cover in 8 of their 9 matches against the Top 8. They have also failed to cover in the last 4 clashes with the Broncos. In TMP’s they are 12-6 Over, 7-2 Over at Allianz Stadium and 6-1 Over as a home underdog since 2014, while 4 of the last 6 clashes with the Broncos have also finished Over. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in their last 5 matches, while the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 7th minute in 7 of their 9 games at Allianz Stadium this season. Despite losing 6 of their last 8, the Broncos still remain in 6th spot. After the opening 9 Rounds, the Broncos boasted the best defensive record in the NRL, conceding an average of 12 points a game, but have averaged almost 28 points a game since Round 11. They are currently ranked 5th in attack and 6th in defence while their 80 point differential ranks 5th. Brisbane is 8-10 ATS with a 4-5 cover record on the road and they have covered in only 2 of their last 7 as a road favourite. They are split evenly in TMP’s, with a 9-9 result, while 5 of their last 6 have finished Overs. Matches refereed by Ashley Klein also favour the Overs, with an 8-3 result, including the last 6 straight.

Preview

I just have to stay against the Broncos, and while the Roosters have been losing they do come through some very strong form. The Broncos looked terrible last week, shot for confidence, they have some very key outs here with Gillett, Thaiday and McGuire in the middle plus Reed, Kahu, Eden and Nikorima, that’s a decent hole punched in your list and quality. As mentioned last week, their next problem is that their depth and kids off their bench have not stepped up, they really are in all sorts at present.

The Broncos have lost 6 of their last 8 and in 3 of their last 4 have conceded 30 or more points in defence, unheard of for a Bennett coached side. In all honesty they have not played well since Rd 11 their last H2H contest against the Cowboys. Hunt has been shot on confidence and form since Rd 1; Milford has followed through the last 8 or so weeks; they have then had some key injuries in particular to their left edge which coupled with their depth and youth not stepping up seems to then have exaggerated their slide in form. They could also be under the pump with an intensive fitness program as they headed toward finals footy, but if they are not real careful and arrest this slide and form quickly that might also then be a risk.

Roosters also losing and are with out key forward Waerea-Hargreaves but there has been significant improvement across their recent form, and they certainly should have won two of their last 4 notably against the Sharks. If we look a little closer to their form 3 of their last 4 games have been against top 4 opponents, their last two games have been against the Storm and Sharks who now sit top of the table, and for the most part they have been very competitive in each of these games. It’s a strong form line which should position them well here, the worry is them running out the full 80 minutes and winning, but they do look close to a breakthrough win. They also have some strengths to play at the Broncos here, they can play strong and physical through the middle (McGuire and Thaiday missing), can maintain this with a strong forward bench, Pearce has been in good form, I like the talent and look of the young kid at #6 Connor Watson and hopefully we see Latrell Mitchell moved back to fullback.

Like the Roosters chances here, back at home, although losing they come through the strongest recent form reference in the competition at present into an opponent with notable key outs, questionable form and confidence.

Bet 2 units Roosters H2H $2.00 TabSportsbet


Bulldogs vs Dragons

-16.5 Bulldogs

Stats

The Bulldogs have a dominate record over the Dragons, winning 8 of the last 9 clashes, including 6 of the previous 7 meetings at ANZ Stadium. Canterbury also has a very good recent record at ANZ Stadium, having won 12 of their last 16 matches played at the ground, while the Dragons have lost 6 of their last 7 matches at the venue. The Bulldogs are coming off their biggest loss in 3 years but they have a solid record in the week following a heavy defeat, having won 6 of their last 7 off a 13+ loss and they have covered the line in all of those. The Dogs have won their last 6 matches against sides currently sitting in the bottom half of the ladder. They are 7-11 ATS with a 4-4 record at ANZ Stadium when laying a start. In TMP’s they are 10-8 Over, while 7 of the last 10 meetings with the Dragons at ANZ Stadium have finished Under, with an average of 36. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 7 of the previous 9 meetings with the Dragons who have conceded 1st points in 11 of their last 17 at ANZ Stadium. The Dragons have now lost 3 straight and all 3 losses have been by a margin of 13+, while they have averaged just 10 points a game in attack. Their next 3 matches are all against sides currently in the Top 8 and they have won only 1 from 4 previously against the Top 8 as an away side, where they have averaged less than 8 points a game. They have now dropped to 11th on the ladder with an 8-10 record, while their differential of -158 is the 2nd worst in the NRL. Their defence ranks 11th, while only the Knights have scored fewer points than the Dragons in attack. They are 8-10 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 5 when getting a start and have also covered in only 1 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium. In TMP’s they are 12-6 Under, while they are 9-2 Under against the Top 8 at an average of 33. The Dragons have lost 9 of their last 10 matches of Friday Night Football and have conceded the 1st try of the match in 9 of those. The side that has scored the 1st try of the match has gone on to win 14 of the last 16 clashes, while the half time leader has won 15 of the previous 16 meetings.

Preview

The Bulldogs were off last week and smashed by a good Cowboys side, their prior form was ok but right now they are just not up to competing with the pointy end of the table. This is different and they drop quite a few levels of opponent into the Dragons. I’ve stated many times that they have problems in their halves in their inability to own the play making roles, and this is especially highlighted when against the quality defensive sides. They had won their previous 4 games and in the process also rattled up plenty of points, back at home and off a bit of a shake up they should be keen to atone here.

Less said about the Dragons the better, I have done this to death through recent weeks. In short the Coach has no idea and is way way out of his depth, his approach to attack structure, set up, patterns and execution is archaic. Yes their list needs some tinkering with but you could see some significant improvement very quickly with a different approach with the same personal let alone then making some change. gee, in the short term I’d just position Widdop on the right and set up as much play as possible to run down their right edge and feed Taane Milne some space and ball, he looks a talent, big boy, has footwork and hands that can play inside and out, for the Dragons sake I hope he is locked up for the next few years.

When opponents have played the Dragons back through the middle (Eagles at Brookvale a few weeks back, then the Titans) they are very venerable. The Bulldogs have this in spades here, plus they like to off load and play second phase options.

Bulldogs have been involved in totals of 44 or more at 4 of their last 5 outings, and while losing teh Dragons have done something similar and have also been conceding big scores. This game looks to have points in it, we just want the Dragons to either contribute with 3 tries, or roll over completely, and while the Dragons a notable unders team through this and recent seasons, but they have been leaking points more recently and look under pressure to do something similar here again. My model has this contest at 73% overs, I think 40 points looks very achievable.

Bet 2 units Bulldogs-Dragons over 39.5 $1.90 Luxbet / Unibet / TopSport


Warriors vs Panthers

-2.5 Warriors

Stats

Super Saturday kicks off from Auckland when the Warriors play host to the Panthers. The Warriors return home after their back to back away legs, both of which were decided by Golden Point with the Warriors on the wrong end of the result in both matches which has seen them drop out of the 8 to 9th position. They are ranked 8th in attack and 12th in defence, while their -21 differential ranks 11th . The Warriors have now lost 3 of their last 4 and have struggled for wins against the Top 8, with a 3-7 result, while they have won only 1 of the previous 7 clashes with the Panthers. They are 8-10 ATS, with a 3-5 cover record at home and have covered in only 2 of their last 7 at home as a favourite. In TMP’s they are 11-7 Over, while 8 of the last 9 clashes with the Panthers in New Zealand have also finished Over at an average of 51. A Warriors try has been the 1st scoring play in 7 of the last 10 meetings with the Panthers, including the last 5 match ups in New Zealand. Shaun Johnson has been the Warriors 1st try scorer in their last 4 home games and ranks 2nd (9) behind Solomona Kata who is the Warriors leading try scorer with 10. After playing 15 of their 18 matches in NSW, the Panthers will now play distant away games in back to back weeks as well as their 2nd trip to New Zealand this season. They will have gained plenty of confidence after disposing of the Broncos last week as they aim for 3 straight wins for the 1st time this season, but they haven’t won back to back away games since 2014. Their win last week moved them back into the Top 8, at the expense of the Warriors and the Panthers have won 6 of their last 7 against a bottom 8 opponent. The Panthers rank 9th in both attack and defence, with a -13 differential that also ranks 9th . They are split evenly ATS, producing a 9-9 result, while they have covered in 6 of 9 on the road and in 6 of 9 when getting a start. Penrith are also split evenly in TMP’s but are 11-5 Under as a road dog since 2015. No side has been involved in more matches decided by a margin of 1-12 than the Panthers and this has also been the result in the last 5 clashes against the Warriors that have been played in New Zealand. Josh Mansour is the Panthers leading try scorer with 9, but he hasn’t scored in his last 3 matches against the Warriors.

Preview

Tricky game and don’t like much about it. Warriors come off two losses, both distant road games and now return home which should be to their advantage, but they have struggled through recent seasons after the Origin period when up against tougher opponents who are at full strength, and or top of the table opponents. Panthers come off good away win vs Broncos then into another distant away game, certainly have to continue to question how strong a form line beating the Broncos at present is worth, and they are yet to string consistency or wins together.

Don’t like the game, slight lean to Panthers, but nothing would surprise.


Eels vs Tigers

+5.5 Eels

Stats

The Eels and Tigers clash at ANZ Stadium in the Super Saturday Sandwich. The Eels snuck home 8-0 when they last met in Round 4 in what was the lowest scoring match of the season thus far. Recent meetings have been closely fought contests with 4 of the last 5 clashes decided by a margin of 1-12 points. The Eels have now lost 3 of their last 4 but are yet to be beaten at ANZ Stadium this season, winning 4 from 4. They conceded 34 points last week for the 2nd time in month and have conceded an average of 27 points a game over that period. Parramatta is 11-7 ATS and has covered in all 4 of their matches at ANZ Stadium this season. They are 11-7 Under in TMP’s, while 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Tigers have also finished Under. The Eels have scored the 1 st try of the match in the last 4 meetings with the Tigers who have conceded the 1st try in 5 of their last 7. Bevan French crossed again last week to make it 10 tries from 7 appearances and he now joins Radradra as the Eels leading try scorer. The Tigers will be looking for back to back wins for the 1st time since Round 12 and if successful they will break a 7 game win loss sequence. A win will also get them to 22 competition points and depending on other results they could be 1 of 5 teams fighting for a spot in the 8 all on 22 points. They have won 4 of their last 5 against sides in the bottom half of the ladder, as well as winning 6 of the previous 9 clashes with the Eels. The Tigers rank 10th in attack, but have the 2nd worst defensive record in the NRL, conceding 25 points per game. They are 10-8 ATS and have covered in their last 5 straight, as well as covering in 5 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium. In TMP’s they are 11-7 in favour of the Overs, including 5 of their last 6 and they share the highest TMP average in the NRL at 46. Consider James Tedesco in try scorer calculations as he has scored 15 tries from 18 matches at ANZ Stadium, including 11 from his last 12.

Preview

Another questionable game I’m happy to stay away from. The Eels are there to be beat (again), they have now lost 3 of their last 4 and conceded a decent margin last week vs Titans, not host this at Homebush. They have a makeshift line up riddled with key outs, but to their credit key putting in. Tigers won as expected last week, but they could have and should have won by 30 into and through that 2nd half which turned into a very ugly low contest. And that’s the problem with them, inconsistency and an inability to foot their foot to the floor on opponents / games that they should. They have gone W L W L W sequence through their last 7 games, and come off a win, to stay in contention for the finals they again need to win here, and they have a good recent record vs bottom 8 sides. Tigers should win, and seriously should win by 10, but they are hard to trust.


Cowboys vs Storm

-5.5 Cowboys

Stats

Two of the Premiership heavy weights clash in Townsville in what is clearly one of the matches of the Round, although some of the gloss has been taken off with news that Thurston will be missing for the next couple of weeks. There hasn’t been a lot between these sides in recent years, with both sides recording 5 wins from the last 10 encounters and 3 of the last 4 having been decided by single figures. The Cowboys remain unbeaten at home this year after last week’s demolition job on the Bulldogs, to stretch their winning run to 11 consecutive home wins but for just the 2nd time in more than 2 years they start this match as a home underdog. For the 7th week in a row the Cowboys hold down 3rd spot on the ladder, while they rank 2nd in both attack and defence, averaging 26 PPG in attack and conceding 14 PPG in defence. North Queensland is 10-8 ATS, with a 6-3 cover record at home, while they are 15-7 since 2014 when getting a start. They are 10-8 Under in TMP’s, with 6 of their last 7 night fixtures finishing Under at an average of 35, while 5 of the previous 7 clashes with Melbourne have totaled 36 or less. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in all 9 of their home games this season and only once in those 9 matches have they trailed at half time. After bagging 3 tries last week, Antonio Winterstein is now the Cowboys leading try scorer with 10 and he has been the 1st try scorer of the match in 3 of their last 6 games. Like the Cowboys, Melbourne have been entrenched in the Top 4 for most of the season and since Round 8, they haven’t sat lower than 3rd. Their defence and differential both rank 1st, while they have the 4th best attack. They have won 11 of their last 12 and 7 of their last 8 away from AAMI Park, including a 1 point win over the Cowboys at Suncorp Stadium in Round 10. Only once since Round 8 have they trailed at half time and they have won 13 of 14 this season when leading at the break, while the half time leader has won 20 of the last 21 meetings between the Cowboys and the Storm. Melbourne is 10-8 ATS, with a 5-4 cover record on the road, while they have an 8-9 cover record since 2014 as a road favourite. They are the Number 1 Unders side in the NRL, producing a 13-5 result, with an 8-2 Under record on the road, while they are 5-2 Under against their Top 8 counterparts. Suliasa Vunivalu failed to score a try last week but he is yet to go back to back matches without scoring and he continues to be the NRL’s leading try scorer with 17.

Preview

Clearly the game of the round and for mine the likely Grand Final preview.

Yes Thurston is a massive out (should he not play, which is what I expect) but the Cowboys are huge at home (won last 11 here) and have grown significantly as a team this season off confidence and belief from winning the title. Many forget that last week after Thurston left the field the Cowboys still put a further 20 points on the opponent, led by the very capable Morgan.

The Storm have also been outstanding now for many months, and I have no knock at all for them. They have been sitting in the top 3 since Rd 8, have won 11 of their last 12 and 7 of their last 8 on the road, a super record season to date and still only concede 11 pts a week in defence. Bellamy has made some noticeable tweaks to their attack through the last 6 or so weeks given the attacking strike and strength that he now has on his two edges with Koroibete and Vunivalu, now looking to set up short or wide shifts to an edge or a high kick options. They to have a few key forwards either out (McLean, Asofa-Solomona) or in doubt (Glasby).

My numbers have it -5.5 to Cowboys with significant edge them at home, that if correct in game could be an 8 point advantage, I want to be with them. With no Thurston they can be beat, and the Storm are certainly the real deal, great clash but tip and small interest with home side.

Bet 1 unit Cowboys +2.5 $1.90 Ubet


Rabbits vs Raiders

+9.5 Rabbits

Stats

Two sides with opposing form lines kick off Sunday afternoon football when the Rabbitohs host the Raiders at ANZ Stadium. The Rabbitohs are coming of 7 straight losses and are now out of Finals contention, while the Raiders have won 6 of their last 7 and will be looking to maintain their spot in the Top 4. The Raiders hold a 29- 21 all time advantage over the Bunnies, while wins have been shared equally at ANZ Stadium. There have been plenty of points on offer when these sides meet with a TMP average of 52 from the previous 10 clashes, with only 1 of them totaling less than 48. It could a long final 6 weeks for Souths who now have little to play for and have conceded 20 points or more in every match since Round 7 at an average of nearly 30. They have made 2 changes from last week and have now used 31 players, with only the Knights and Warriors using more. They have lost 7 from 7 against the current Top 8 and have failed to score a 1st half point in 4 of those. They are 6-12 ATS to be the equal worst cover team in the competition and have failed to cover in 6 of their last 7 matches at ANZ Stadium. The Rabbitohs are 11-7 Over in TMP’s, with 8 of their last 10 totaling 40 or more. They have conceded the 1st points of the match in 10 of their last 13 and have trailed at half time in 12 of those. The Raiders have won 4 of their last 5 against a bottom 8 opponent and have won 7 of their last 8 when starting as a favourite. Only once this season have they been out of the Top 8 and they are now in the Top 4 for the 1st time since Round 5. They have a soft run home, with 4 of their remaining 6 games against sides currently ranked 10th to 14th, while they face the Sharks and Storm in back to back weeks in Rounds 22 and 23 so a Top 4 finish is a distinct possibility. Canberra has the 7th ranked defence while both their differential and their attack rank 4th . They are 11-7 ATS but have a 6-9 cover record since 2014 when laying a small start. The Raiders are the Number 1 Overs side in the NRL, producing a 13-5 result and are a big Overs side in day games, going 10-2 Over in 2016, with a 29-10 record in day games since 2014. After bagging a hat trick last week, Jarrod Croker has now moved to outright 1st as Canberra’s leading try scorer with 14.

Preview

This looks a game style much more to the Raiders liking and their strengths (as opposed to last week) and so I want to bet with them here.

I shied away from betting the Raiders last week as the  ad lib style of game that it looked like becoming concerned me. The Warriors can play, and then lead their opponents into a near touch footy style of play, which can pull sides off their focus, strengths, and lead to multiple errors and catch up styled play, and that’s exactly what the Raiders got sucked into last week. This is much more them, a meat and vegies basics styled game pattern of roll through the middle, work hard, earn the field position and then the points sort of game and the stuff they are best suited to.

Clearly the Rabbits are a mess, lost 7 straight now, lucky they were not put away with an embarrassing margin last Monday night when down 18-0, and lose another key forward which they can ill afford to with such a thin player list now. I just can’t see how they hold the Raiders big men through the middle, keep conceding field position and then points.

As we know the Raiders can be tricky to catch, and they can play in patches, but gee this looks ready made for them if they can keep their head and stick tight to their strengths. Given all of this I think we are much smarter to look to play them under the key number of 8 as opposed to teh current market position of 10, so take the tri bet option Raiders to win by more than 6.5 points.

Bet 2 units Raiders tri bet >6.5 $1.81 William Hill


Eagles vs Knights

-22.5 Eagles

Stats

For the 1st time in a month, the Sea Eagles return to Brookvale Oval where they will face a Newcastle side destined for the Wooden Spoon. The Sea Eagles have won 9 of the last 11 games played against the Knights, including the last 5 straight, while Newcastle has not won a game at Brookvale Oval for 10 years. Manly are looking to make a late charge as the race for a spot in the Finals intensifies. They have now won 3 in a row and another win this week could see them move from 12th to 9th if other results go their way. After conceding nearly 30 points a game during their 7 game losing run, the Sea Eagles have conceded an average of 10.7 since the start of their winning run. They are ranked 13th in attack, while their defence and differential both rank 11th. Manly is 8-10 ATS and have covered their last 4 straight. They have an 11-8 cover record at Brookvale Oval since 2014 when giving a start, but have covered in only 2 of 5 over the same period when chasing a double digit advantage. The Sea Eagles are 10-8 Under in TMP’s, with their last 3 at Brookvale all finishing that way. Jorge Taufua has been the Sea Eagles 1st try scorer in his last 3 matches against the Knights and is Manly’s leading try scorer with 9. It’s been the season from hell for the Knights who are looking at equaling a club record of 13 consecutive losses should they lose this match. The Knights have had to call on 34 player’s season to date, which is the most of any club. They are yet to register a win on the road, having lost 10 from 10 and 5 of those road losses have been by 30 points or more. Newcastle are 7-11 ATS, with a 3-7 cover record away from home, while they have covered in only 2 of their last 8 when getting a double digit advantage. In TMP’s they are 10-8 in favour of the Overs, with a 6-4 Over record on the road at an average of 47.

Preview

20 pts is a decent line, but the Eagles are warming up, covered tehir last 4 straight, back at Brookvale, outstanding record over Knights (and long term at this ground) and for and against now becomes very important to them and in this game, if they are hungry and can stay focused I expect they will look to work hard for points. Knights look in trouble again, 4 or 5 key outs with whispers of possible more through coming days, they got beat by margin of 32 last week, into another difficult away game and some of their outs are critical. Eagles keep their head then they win by plenty.

More to follow.


Titans vs Sharks

+5.5 Titans

Stats

Round 21 comes to a conclusion in a Top 8 clash when the 7 th placed Titans host the ladder leaders Cronulla. There has been very little between these sides since the Titans entered the comp in 2007, with the Sharks currently holding a 2 game advantage head to head, while wins have been shared equally from the 4 games played at CBus Stadium. Recent meetings have been closely fought contests, with 6 of the previous 7 clashes decided by 6 points or less and one would hope that this will again be the case. The Titans have struggled for wins against their Top 8 counterparts, winning only 2 of 8, but they have won 3 of their last 4 at home and have averaged 28 points a game during that time. They are ranked 7 th in attack, while their differential and defence both rank 8th . They are the Number 1 side ATS and have now covered in 13 of their 18 matches, including their last 7 night matches, while they have also covered in 9 of their last 10 as an underdog and 8 of their last 10 games of MNF. In TMP’s they are 10-8 Over, while they are 7-3 Under in MNF since 2014. Monday night matches have also favoured the Unders in 2016 with a 13-6 result. Nene Macdonald crossed again last week to make it 5 consecutive matches where he has scored and he leads the way for the Titans with 9 tries for the season. The Sharks are looking for 16 straight wins to move to equal 3 rd on the all-time list for consecutive games won. Their last defeat was a Monday night road game back in Round 3 but they have won 4 straight Monday fixtures since then. In 7 of their last 8 games of MNF, the winning margin has been by 12 points or less, while a margin of 1-12 has been the result in 13 of the 19 games of MNF in 2016. Cronulla sits on top of the ladder for the 6th week in a row, they have the 3rd best differential, off the back of the 3rd best defence and the best attack in the competition. They are 12-6 ATS and have covered in 7 of their 8 away games, including the last 7 straight, while they have covered their last 4 when laying a start on the road. The Sharks are 10-8 Under in TMP’s and are 8-4 Under in MNF since 2014. Valentine Holmes picked up a double last week and is now 2nd on the ladder for most tries with 15 and is now 2 clear of Sosaia Feki as the Sharks leading try scorer.

Preview

Not a game I want to get involved with as there are a number of angles either way. Titans as we know have been very good underdogs and have the best season to date line cover record of any team, should be advantaged at home but a) have significant doubts over Peats and Taylor playing (major outs) and b) a poor record vs top 8 sides (and now meet a top 2 side). The Sharks are shooting for 16 straight wins, and have covered the line at their last 7 away games, a formidable record and one I don’t want to take on here with only a two try (or less) line.

The Titans are plucky, and aim up, but the Sharks have been at a different level across the last 3 months. They are winning against good opponents, they have grown in confidence and belief, and now also have gears in being able to step things up as and when required – as we have seen through recent weeks when facing near defeat.

I think the market handicap is right for this and a game best left alone. The Sharks should win, final team selections 60 mins prior to kick off will be crucial, I can’t split an advantage either way.


 

 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 21

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 20

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 20

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 20 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-10.5 Cowboys vs Bulldogs

-8.5 Broncos vs Panthers

-9.5 Raiders vs Warriors

-10.5 Titans vs Eels

-14.5 Storm vs Roosters

-28.5 Sharks vs Knights

+5.5 Dragons vs Tigers

+5.5 Rabbits vs Eagles

 


NRL Round 20 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 1 units Panthers H2H $3.75 William Hill

Bet 2 units Panthers +10.5 $1.90 TabSportsbet

Bet 2 units Titans -4.5 $1.87 Sportsbet / -5.5 $1.88 William Hill

Bet 3 units Tigers -4.0 $1.90 William Hill / CrownBet -4.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB

Bet 1 unit Sharks -23.5 $1.92 CrownBet / Ubet

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

Premiership Bet

My current ratings out of 10

9.55 Cowboys
9.40 Storm
9.25 Sharks
9.20 Broncos
8.90 Bulldogs
Daylight

I expect the top 3 are the only live chances, with significant risk against the Sharks. While on this wonderful winning roll and full of belief there has to be some risk against finals inexperience and more importantly in finals footy their want to continually offer dumb penalties and ill discipline. Storm have been building nicely, very solid, key experience and they lift for the big games (beat Cows in Brisbane, flogged Broncos, etc). But I keep coming back to the Cowboys, right now I think they are an approx $3.25 chance and we can get $5.00, clearly they have now been there done that but I believe they are a 10 to 20% better side this yr now that they have that belief, they amazingly have all but to a man the same side, they have depth, will finish top 4 (or top 2) and get the potential rails run through. I think $5.00 is about the top of the market and is likely to now keep firming into September, unscathed out of Origin I want to have a small long term interest with them.

I think the Broncos are long gone and would be very very surprised if they could resurrect their season. Halves, notably Hunt way out of form, bench depth very thin on quality, major left edge defensive issues. Bulldogs, Hasler has this magic through August and September most years, I don’t like their halves, but their best can compete, nice test in Townsville Thursday night.

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Cowboys, Broncos, Raiders, Titans, Storm, Sharks, Tigers, Eagles


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Cowboys vs Bulldogs

-10.5 Cowboys

Stats

It’s a Top 4 clash to kick off Round 20 when the Bulldogs travel to North Queensland to take on the Cowboys. The Bulldogs have won 6 of the last 9 clashes with the Cowboys, including 3 of the last 4 meetings played in Townsville, with the Cowboys only H2H win at the ground since 2007 coming from the most recent encounter. It’s the 1st time in more than 3 months that the Bulldogs have had to play a distant fly away match where they have struggled for wins in recent years, winning only half of their matches played outside of NSW since 2010 (15 from 30). They have won only 8 of their last 15 as a road dog and have opened at a H2H price of more than $2 for only the 4th time this season. Canterbury ranks 5th in attack, while the have the 4th best defensive record and their differential of 109 also ranks 4th . The Bulldogs have a 7-10 record ATS with a 5-4 cover record on the road, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 away from home when getting a start of more than a converted try. They are 10-7 Over in TMP’s with their last 7 all going Over and 5 of those 7 have topped 50. It’s now 15 weeks since the Bulldogs last trailed at half time and no side has scored more 1st half points than the Dogs. In 7 of their last 8 away games the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 8th minute, with the Bulldogs scoring the 1st try in 5 of those. The Cowboys are 1 of 2 sides that remain undefeated at home this season, winning 8 from 8 and they have also won 9 of their last 10 when starting as a favourite. They will be fresh off the break and have won 9 of their last 11 off a Bye, while they also have a key in with Michael Morgan set to return after missing their last 3 matches. The Cowboys rank 3rd in attack and 2nd in defence, while their differential of 173 ranks 3rd . North Queensland is 9-8 ATS, with a 5-3 cover record at home and they have covered in 8 of their last 11 when laying a start. In TMP’s they are 9-8 Under, with 6 of their last 8 totaling 38 or less. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in all 8 of their home games in 2016, while Gavin Cooper leads the way as the Cowboys as 1st try scorer, scoring the 1st try of the match on 4 occasions this season. A great way to start the Round and if history is anything to go by it shapes as a tight tussle with 8 of the previous 9 meetings having been decided by a margin of 1-12 points.

Preview

Looks a really good contest. Which ever way I dice the numbers I have the Cows with an approx 10 point handicap advantage here, but its a game best watched for reference and learning right at this stage. The Cowboys have 6 key players off the back of Origin, and one of the things that we may see through this and the next few weeks is a few of the contenders tapering their fitness work in prep for September, which can mean additional fitness loading and tired legs while they then adjust their run into mid August.

The Cows have a super home record and are shooting for a club record winning streak. Bulldogs have won their last 4 but have some question marks over some of that form, BUT Hasler is a master of setting his troops for these big games and they do have a good record in Townsville. Excellent contest in the middle, two big front rows, both have ball play on the edges, but the Cowboys have the brains and smarts in the halves and that should be the difference.

Cowboys to win, no interest, if I was doing anything maybe link them straight out to be winning.


Broncos vs Panthers

-8.5 Broncos

Stats

The only match of the Round featuring 2 last start winners sees the Brisbane Broncos face the Penrith Panthers at Suncorp Stadium in Friday Night Football. Home ground advantage has been beneficial when these sides have met recently with the home team winning 8 of the last 9 matches. The Panthers have won 3 of the last 4 clashes, while the Broncos have won 5 of the last 6 clashes played at Suncorp Stadium. It’s the 1st game back at Suncorp Stadium since Brisbane were embarrassed by the Storm 3 weeks ago in what was their biggest ever loss at the venue. The Broncos have won 6 of their 8 matches against sides currently sitting outside the 8 and they have also won 7 of 9 at Suncorp Stadium. They rank 6th in attack and 7th in defence, while their 99 point differential ranks 5th. Brisbane is 8-9 ATS but they have covered in 8 of their last 10 at Suncorp when laying a double digit start. They are 9-8 Under in TMP’s, while 4 of their last 5 have finished Over, with 3 of them topping 44. The Broncos have scored the 1st try of the match in 8 of their 9 games at Suncorp Stadium this season. Corey Oates is the Broncos leading try scorer with 12 and he has been the Broncos last try in his previous 3 matches against the Panthers. The Panthers remain out of the Top 8 in 9th spot and are 1 of 4 teams with 20 points in a mid-table log jam. They are on a 5 day turn around and have lost 9 of 14 since 2012 on a short back up. Penrith have lost 5 of 8 as the away side as well as losing 6 of 8 against teams currently in the Top 8. They rank 11th in defence, while both their attack and differential rank 10th. The Panthers are 8-9 ATS, with a 3-2 cover record as a road dog, but they have failed to cover in their 5 matches played interstate. They are 9-8 Under in TMP’s, with a 6-4 Under record away from Pepper Stadium. The Panthers have had 15 matches decided by 1-12 points, while the previous 3 clashes with the Broncos have been decided by 3 points or less. Josh Mansour has now scored 6 tries in his last 6 appearances for the Panthers and is their leading try scorer with 9. The home side has failed to cover in 11 of the last 12 matches with Matt Noyen as an assistant referee

Preview

I read somewhere yesterday someone saying after watching the Broncos win last week they were back!! Not sure what he was watching, as they are still a huge risk here and I’m staggered they are $1.26 favs. They were as scratchy as anything last week and were lucky to be running through a Rabbits list that was as thin as and who have been on a long losing streak of their own. They still have key outs, major problems on their left edge and are playing 5 youngsters who have not made an impact or indeed really come up at this level as expected. They have been nothing like the Broncos of this time last yr, and Bennett knows full well he really has his hands full turning this around.

Clearly the Panthers have also been scratchy, but I have a similar theory on them as with the Warriors, they don’t like playing with expectation or favourtism. Yes they also have some other issues, notably playing in and out of games (turning on and off), some key players out of position and their youth and inexperience, but they do have patches of brilliance and in managed and directed can turn a game on its head in minutes. They turned the Eagles game on its head, did something similar last Sunday after half time, they have that in them. Through recent weeks they have been poor, slow starters, in and out of games, lazy periods, but in each game they were expected to win, very warm favs yet clearly complacent. They have actually started favs and expected winners at their last 5 winning just 3. But now they are despised outsiders given little chance, but I think that’s the trick with them, unlike many other sides who are significant outsiders due to being legless we know what the Panthers have in them and I expect without that expectation they’re a good chance to aim up here and give this a shake.

I think the market has this priced way too far apart, on a false sense of the Broncos by name and reputation and not necessarily current form. I want to be with the plus start, but wait till Friday afternoon to bet, as I expect the Friday rush will push it further and we can take +12.0 or better.

The serious money keeps coming for the Panthers, line has moved from 11.5 to 8.5 on Pinnacle already and I would suggest will now keep firming elsewhere, lets take the 10.5, also a small interest at the H2H price which I think is way too long and offers some value in a game where I give the Panthers some significant hope of the upset.

Bet 1 units Panthers H2H $3.75 William Hill

Bet 2 units Panthers +10.5 $1.90 TabSportsbet


Raiders vs Warriors

-9.5 Raiders

Stats

The 2nd and final match of the Round featuring 2 Top 8 opponents sees the Raiders host the Warriors from GIO Stadium in the Nation’s Capital. The Raiders ended a 5 game losing run when they last met the Warriors and a win this week will be the 1st time since 2012 that Canberra has beaten the Warriors twice in a season. Only once since these sides last met in Round 11 have the Raiders tasted defeat, recording 6 wins from 7 matches, including their last 4 at home. The Raiders continue to hold down 5th spot on the ladder, they are ranked 7th in points conceded, while they rank 2nd in attack, averaging 25 points a game and this improves to almost 30 PPG when playing at home. They are the 2nd best cover team in the NRL behind the Titans, with an 11-6 record ATS, while they are 6-3 when covering at home. Canberra has the 2nd highest TMP average in the comp, producing a 12-5 Over result and a 7-2 Over record at home at an average of 50, while 6 of their last 7 have topped 44. No side has scored more 2nd half points than the Raiders and they haven’t been outscored in the 2nd half in their last 10 matches. The Raiders have scored the last try of the match in 4 of their last 5 at home. Jarrod Croker and Jordan Rapana are the leading try scorers for the Raiders, with each of them crossing on 11 occasions. Its back to back road games for the Warriors after losing to the Sea Eagles in Golden Point last week. They have now lost 4 of their last 5 away games to be 3 & 6 on the road season to date and while they have won their last 2 at the ground, wins in Canberra have also proven difficult, with just 3 wins in 20 years. The Warriors rank 7th in attack but are 12th defensively and are 1 of 2 sides in the Top 8 with a negative differential. They are 7-10 ATS, with a 4-5 cover record on the road and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 9 away games when getting a start. In TMP’s they are 10-7 Over and 6-3 Over as an away side, while their last 4 matches have all finished Under. Only 5 times this season have the Warriors led at half time and they have gone on to win 4 of those, while they have lost 9 of 11 when trailing at the break. Solomone Kata is the Warriors leading try scorer with 10, but he hasn’t scored a try in his last 4 matches.

Preview

Nice test for both sides. For the Warriors they face back to back distant road games and having to aim up post Origin which they have failed to do each of the last 4 years. The Raiders have been good at home winning 7 of last 9 but face some expectation here, sitting in the top 8 they are expected to win and need to do so to stay competitive.

The trick with this game is they are each likely to suck the other into playing up tempo, quick ruck speed, multiple off loads and ball movement and each run the risk of playing the game at hand and making multiple errors, both with the ball and defensively. Often it can turn into more of a game of touch footy than smart game plan.

I expect the Raiders win, and should cover the line, but they style of game lends itself to risk that I am happy to stay out of. It does look a points feast, but 48 is a decent number to chase and I think there are better betting opportunities elsewhere to work around this week.


Titans vs Eels

-10.5 Titans

Stats

Off field dramas continue to dominate the headlines for Parramatta who will again be without key play maker in Corey Norman when they travel to the glitter strip to take on the Titans. The Eels got the chocolates when they last met the Titans in Darwin to record just their 2nd win from the last 7 clashes with the Gold Coast side. Parramatta has lost 2 of their last 3 and with their finals hopes now gone, it might be a big ask to keep fronting up like they have been. They have conceded an average of 24 points a game from their last 3 matches, which is 10 points more than they had averaged in their 14 matches prior. They have lost 6 of their last 8 as a road dog, 5 of their last 6 matches played in Queensland and have covered a line in only 1 of those. The Eels are 11-6 ATS, including covering their last 5 straight, while they have a 6-2 cover record as an away side. They are 11-6 Under in TMP’s, with a 5-3 Under record on the road, while 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Titans have also finished Under. Bevan French has scored 9 tries from 6 appearances for the Eels and is now only 1 behind Semi Radradra as Parramatta’s leading try scorer. The Titans come into this match in 7th position, which is their highest position since Round 4. They rank 8th in both attack and defence, while their differential of -3 also ranks 8th . All but 1 of the Titans 8 wins have come against sides currently ranked in the bottom half of the ladder. The Titans are the Number 1 cover side in the NRL, with a 12-5 record ATS, while they are 5-3 at home. In TMP’s they are 9-8 in favour of the Overs, while 5 of their last 6 at home have all finished Under. A Titans try has been the 1st scoring play in 5 of their last 6 matches and they have also scored the 1st try in the last 5 clashes with the Eels. Nene Macdonald is the Titans leading try scorer with 8 and he has scored 6 of those in his last 4 matches.

Preview

Eels remain plucky but their season is now officially dead with them unable to make the semis, riddled with key outs and injuries and into a distance road game to the glitter strip. I have nothing but respect for their efforts through recent months but they have a long list of key outs and we now add Jennings to that, Foran, Norman, Radrada, Toutai, that’s a big chunk of combinations and class there. I think the Eels might drop their bundle soon now that the finals are out of reach, interstate road trips can catch many a side off guard.

Titans were good last week and even without Bird should be too strong at home. Their key combinations at 9, 7 and 6 are growing well, tehir style of looking to open things up and play some footy should suit, they are building nicely and while likely to be found out against the pointy end of the table this looks the right game and week to be with them again.

Bet 2 units Titans -4.5 $1.87 Sportsbet


Storm vs Roosters

-14.5 Storm

Stats

The Sydney Roosters travel to Melbourne where they will meet the Storm to close out Super Saturday. The Storm handed the Roosters their biggest ever defeat at Allianz Stadium when they last met in Round 14 to make it 3 wins from the last 4 clashes, and they have also won well 3 of the last 4 meetings played at AAMI Park. Melbourne is 2nd on the ladder and they continue to set the bench mark defensively, conceding 11.6 points per game, while they rank 4th in attack. Their differential of 220 is also the best in the NRL. They are unbeaten in their last 4 at home, to make it 7 wins from 8 matches at AAMI Park this season, while they have won 8 of 9 against a bottom 8 opponent, their only blemish was against the Dragons when they had a number of key outs. Melbourne is 9-8 ATS and is split evenly at home, producing a 4-4 result, while they have covered in 9 of their last 14 night matches at home when giving up a start. The Storm favours the Unders in TMP’s, producing a 12-5 result, while 7 of their last 9 night games at AAMI Park have also finished Under. In 4 of the previous 5 clashes with the Roosters the TMP’s haven’t finished higher than 38. It would appear that Suliasa Vunivalu has a mortgage as the top try scorer in the NRL, with 17 tries in just 11 games since making his debut in Round 7 and he scored both the 1st and last try of the match in the previous meeting with the Roosters. The Roosters have now lost 5 in a row and a loss this week will make it 6 consecutive losses for the 1st time since 2009. They have lost 7 of 8 on the road in 2016 and they are yet to defeat a side in the Top 8, losing 9 from 9. The Roosters rank 14th in both attack and defence, while their differential of -126 also ranks 14th. The Tri Colours are a poor 6-11 ATS, the equal worst cover record in the competition and have covered in only 2 of their 8 away games, while they have failed to cover in 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Storm. They are 12-5 Over in TMP’s (equal most with Canberra), with 6 of their last 7 decided that way, while they are 7-2 Over against the Top 8. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in their last 4 matches, while Latrell Mitchell has been the Roosters 1st try scorer on 5 occasions and he is the Roosters leading try scorer with 11.

Preview

I’m very weary of Storm games right now as I’m sure a) Bellamy will look to rest Smith and Cronk at some stage, and b) they are likely one of those teams in the middle of a fitness routine in prep for September.

The Roosters have now lost 5 straight, should well have won last Monday night and have their best player list. But unless the Storm have 2 key outs I can’t on paper get the handicap any shorter than 14.5, with the market at best 10.5.

This game also marks Jessie Bromwich’s 150 in the top grade, and I am yet to see any club or coach to every have such a record as Bellamy and the Storm in ensuring that they lift for major player milestone games.

Storm to be winning back at home, happy to stay out.


Sharks vs Knights

-28.5 Sharks

Stats

It’s last versus 1st when Knights travel to the Shire to take on the Sharks, Newcastle has lost 11 straight, while the Sharks have won 14 in a row. The Knights suffered their 2nd biggest loss in their history when they last met Cronulla when they went down 62-0. Newcastle has won 4 of the last 5 clashes at Shark Park but they have opened at the longest price of any side in almost 2 years. The Knights are anchored at the bottom of the ladder and are destined to finish there, they rank 16th in for and against and have the worst differential by more than 200 points. They have conceded 20 points or more in their last 11 matches and only twice this season have they posted a score of more than 18. The Knights are 7-10 ATS and have covered in only 4 of 11 when getting a double digit start. They are 10-7 Over in TMP’s, with 4 of their last 5 totaling 48 or more. Newcastle has conceded the 1st try of the match in 8 of their last 9 and in 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Sharks and last week they became the 1st side to concede 100 tries for the season. The Sharks continue to break and set records as they aim for 15 consecutive victories. They are unbeaten at home, winning 9 from 9, with 8 of those wins coming by a margin of 1-12 points. Cronulla has won the last 3 matches against the Knights, scoring 114 points, while conceding just 34. They are 11-6 ATS, with a 4-5 cover record at home, while they have covered in their last 3 against Newcastle. The Sharks are 9-8 Under in TMP’s, with a 6-3 Under record at home, while 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Knights have finished Over. Valentine Holmes (13) and Sosaia Feki (12) have combined to score more than a third of the Sharks tries this season and Holmes bagged 4 tries in the last meeting with the Knights.

Preview


Dragons vs Tigers

+5.5 Dragons

Stats

A crucial game for both the Dragons and Tigers to keep their finals hopes alive when they clash at ANZ Stadium. The Dragons have won 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Tigers, all of which were played at this week’s venue. The half time leader has won the last 6 encounters and that could be pivotal as neither one of these sides has overcome a half time deficit this season, with the Dragons losing 9 from 9 and the Tigers 6 from 6. The Dragons are 10th on the ladder and sit 9th in the defensive standings, while they have the 2nd worst attack in the NRL, averaging 13.3 points a game and no side has scored fewer 2nd half points than the Dragons who have outscored their opponent in the 2nd half just once all season. They have lost 5 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium and 4 of their last 5 away from their suburban home grounds, while they have conceded 30+ points in their last 4 losses. The Dragons are 8-9 ATS and have covered in only 1 of their last 5 at ANZ Stadium, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 7 when getting at start of 4.5 points or more. They are 11-6 Under in TMP’s but 4 of their last 5 have finished Over as have 4 of their last 5 at ANZ Stadium. The Dragons have conceded half of their 64 tries this season down their right edge in defence. Kurt Mann has scored 6 tries in just 6 appearances for the Dragons, yet he is their leading try scorer. The Tigers will be fresh off the Bye and have named one of their strongest line ups of the season. They have won 4 of their last 7 and 4 of their last 5 against sides in the bottom half of the ladder. They sit just behind the Dragons in 11th spot and are 9th in attack, while they have the 2nd worst defensive record in the comp, conceding an average of 25.7 points a game. The Tigers are 9-8 ATS and have covered in 4 of their last 5 at ANZ Stadium, but they have a poor 3-12 cover record since 2014 as a favourite. They are 11-6 Over in TMP’s, including their last 5 straight, while their last 5 at ANZ Stadium have all topped 40 at an average of 50. In 4 of the last 5 clashes between these 2 sides the TMP’s have also topped 40, while matches refereed by Ashley Klein are in favour of the Overs, producing a 14-5 result season to date, including the last 8 straight. James Tedesco is the Tigers leading try scorer with 11 and on 3 occasions each, he has been both the Tigers 1st try scorer or their last try scorer.

Preview

Seems a very modest position to oppose the Dragons, they have had 30 odd points put through them at 3 of their last 4 starts against decent opponents, have been horrible at their last two losses and now chose to play at a neutral ground (Homebush). Tigers come off a bye break, will get all key players back from Origin, stretched the Bulldogs when under strength last start and come through credible form / efforts at their prior three including good wins over Panthers and Rabbits. Lot more upside and positive play in the Tigers right now while Dragons just look on a slide and in free-fall and I want to stay against them.


Rabbits vs Eagles

+5.5 Rabbits

Stats

Two arch rivals close out Round 20 when the Rabbitohs and Sea Eagles clash at Allianz Stadium in Monday Night Football. Both sides will be desperate for a win to keep their slim finals hopes alive but regardless of who wins, it’s highly unlikely that we will see either of these teams in September. The Rabbitohs have won 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Sea Eagles, including their last meeting at Allianz Stadium when the Bunnies started their march to Grand Final glory in 2014. That is now a distant memory for Souths who have now lost 6 in a row, 10 of their last 12 and have conceded 20 points or more in their last 11 straight. They have trailed at half time in 11 of their last 12 scoring an average of just 5 1st half points during that time and only in 1 of those have they been able to overcome the deficit to win. They have slumped to 13th spot on the ladder, are 13th in defence, while their attack and differential both rank 12th. They are the equal worst cover team in the competition, producing a 6-11 record ATS and have covered in only 2 of 8 when getting a start. In TMP’s they are 11-6 Over, with 8 of their last 9 totaling 40 or more, while 6 of their last 7 at Allianz Stadium have also topped 40. Manly has recorded back to back wins and will be looking to make it 3 straight for the 1st time this season. They have been Monday night regulars in 2016, with this being their 7th game of MNF and they have been a 50/50 proposition in the Monday fixture, winning 3 of 6. The Sea Eagles are currently 12th and are ranked 13th in attack, while both their defence and differential rank 11th. They are 7-10 ATS and have covered in their last 3, while they have covered in 3 of their last 4 when laying a start. Since 2015 road favourites in MNF have a 14-8 record ATS when laying a single figure start. In TMP’s Manly are 9-8 in favour of the Under, while 5 of the last 6 (& 8 of the last 10) clashes with the Rabbitohs have also finished Under, with an average of 35.

Preview


Eagles keep improving and their efforts through their last 3 outings has merit, stretching the Cowboys then wins over the Dragons and Warriors (although either not the strongest form reference). What I think has been apparent is a focused work ethic and a team list pulling together, positive signs that Barrett has support and has everyone on the same page of  effort and hard work. Defensively they have also been strong.

Rabbits have been a mess for many weeks now losing their last 6, losing players off their list and having key outs. Defensively they keep leaking near 30 points most weeks at present, had they played someone in much stronger current form last week as opposed to the Broncos they would have been belted by 50.

I like what the Eagles are doing through recent weeks, and they still have a remote chance of making the finals and so have something to play for. Barrett looks to have also instilled some attitude and work ethic into them across the last 6 weeks and that should be the edge here. I like them to win, at this neutral ground I think the handicap should be something like 6, I’m happy to leave the game alone as a betting interest but if looking for a play then certainly Eagles -2.5 is the option.


 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 19 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+2.5 Dragons vs Titans

+4.5 Eagles vs Warriors

+7.5 Rabbits vs Broncos

+12.5 Knights vs Storm

-7.5 Panthers vs Eels

+5.5 Roosters vs Sharks


NRL Round 19 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Titans -1.5 $1.91 Ubet / William Hill / Luxbet

Bet 2 units Rabbits-Broncos over 39.5 $1.90 Luxbet / 40.5 $1.90 Tab Sportsbet

Bet 3 units Knights +18.5 $1.91 William Hill BB

 

Notes

Another post Origin tricky round and only 6 games. I was keen on the Overs in the Eagles-Warriors game in Perth but for the forecast of plenty of rain. Broncos should win but have only done so at 2 of their last 8, are on the road, have key Origin backups, the game and line has risk. Leave me out of the Panthers, consistent under performer and I’m still to finalise thoughts and position for the Monday night game.

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Titans, Warriors, Broncos, Storm, Panthers, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Dragons vs Titans

+2.5 Dragons

Stats

Friday Night Football kicks off Round 19 when the Dragons host the Titans from Kogorah Oval. It’s the 1st of 4 matches in the Round featuring 2 sides that have had the week off and both sides will be looking to make a charge to secure a Top 8 spot. Recent meetings have been tight and low scoring affairs, with 5 of the last 6 clashes decided by a margin of 1-12, while 5 of the last 6 clashes have finished Unders in TMP’s. The Dragons find themselves in the Top 8 for only the 2nd time this season with a 50/50 win loss record and they will need to win at least half of their remaining games if they are to be any chance of playing Finals Footy. They have won 5 of their last 6 at the ground and have covered a line in 5 of those. The Dragons are ranked 8th in defence and 14th in attack, scoring an average of 13 points a game. They are split evenly ATS with an 8-8 record, while they are 5-2 when covering as the home side and have covered in 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Titans. In TMP’s they are 11-5 in favour of the Under and have a 5-1 Under record in night matches at the ground since 2014, while 5 of the previous 6 meetings with the Titans have also finished Under. A Dragons try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 6 clashes with the Titans, while the Titans have scored the last try of the match in the last 8 encounters. The Titans had lost 3 of 4 heading into the break and their post Bye record is a poor won, with just 3 wins from 13 matches since 2010. They are currently 10th on the ladder and are ranked 9th in both attack and defence and will play 6 of their remaining 8 games against sides who have recorded more wins than they have. The Titans are 11-5 ATS and are a perfect 6 from 6 when covering as a road dog. They are split evenly in TMP’s with an 8-8 result, while they are 9-4 Under in night matches away from home. Only once from the last 12 meetings have the Titans led the Dragons at half time and the Titans have also led at the break just once in their 8 previous away games. In 6 of the last 8 meetings, the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 7th minute. The home side has failed to cover in 10 of the last 11 matches with Matt Noyen as an assistant referee.

Preview

On the back of Titans naming one of their strongest line ups for some time and Dragons with two key late outs the visitors have been heavily backed with the market tipping full circle in just a few days.

The Dragons come off a rank offering vs Eagles, but as discussed prior to that game their prior form was equally thin and poor. They have had a bye break but I have little confidence in their coach let alone their offering, and ranked 14th in attack in this current comp they rarely have points in them and if chasing such here which is likely then they will have some problems. They do have the advantage of being at home and a recent winning record here, but again I’m not so sure of some of the depth behind that current record. Which they sit in 8th spot at present for mine this is by default and I am sure we will see them in free fall into the weeks ahead and they slide to their true position toward the bottom four.

The Titans as we know have an excellent record on the road and at the line, they are also the #1 cover the line team this season to date. I like the fact that they would have had a full week prep into this game with no disruption, full list, into a key game that they need to win to remain in finals contention. The way to play the Dragons as well executed by the Eagles last game was back through the middle with every opportunity, and where possible couple with this off load plays to break them up, then pick the right plays to spread to an edge. Also, playing up tempo with some quick play the balls (and these off loads) rattles their defensive set up as the Dragons like to play a few defenders into their tackling and try and slow things down more than many.

A game of two contrasting styles. Dragons will want to arm wrestle their way through a tough tight 80 minutes, Titans will be looking to break things open, play some footy, and shoot from in front. I like the Titans approach, I also like the fact that more often than not they are very well prepared, with an uninterrupted week and full list they get their chance to win here.

Bet 2 units Titans -1.5 $1.91 Ubet / William Hill / Luxbet


Eagles vs Warriors

+4.5 Eagles

Stats

A home game for Manly but both they and the Warriors will travel to Perth for their 2nd ever clash in the West and their 1st ever meeting at NIB Stadium. The Sea Eagles have a dominant recent record over the Warriors, recording 10 wins from the last 11 clashes, but have opened as underdogs for this encounter. It’s the final game of the season that the Sea Eagles will have to leave Sydney and they have lost their last 3 when travelling interstate. They broke a 7 game losing streak prior to the week off, but they have lost 6 of their last 8 when coming out of the Bye. Manly are 6-10 ATS, but have covered in their last 4 against the Warriors. In TMP’s they have an 8-8 record, while 7 of the last 11 clashes with the Warriors have finished Under, with an average of 38. A Sea Eagles try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 meetings and Manly has also scored the last try of the match in 7 of the last 8 clashes. The Warriors had won 4 of 5 heading into their Bye and the week off has served them well in recent seasons as they have won their last 9 matches when coming off a Bye. They have won their last 5 day time matches and covered the line in all of them, but they will need to overcome a poor record on the road though, winning only 2 of their last 11 matches played on Aussie soil. The Warriors are 7-9 ATS and have covered in 6 of their last 7 away games as a road favourite. They are 10-6 Over in TMP’s and in their last 5 matches as a road favourite, the TMP’s have totaled 44 or more with an average of 56.

Preview

Numerous key outs for both teams then long travel path to play in Perth.

After a long losing run the Eagles improved through the Cowboys then smacked the Dragons, and after the Titan toweling up of them (Dragons) last night that formline is also questionable. The Eagles up front 8 then halves look ok, but their three quarters and attack penetration looks an issue.

Warriors have won 4 of their last 5, the loss a close encounter with Sharks in Sydney, but this positive run is typical of their mid season fortunes through this Origin period, but they look to get another winnable game. They also have a good record when fresh off a bye, are far more accustomed to distant travel and have a good record in Perth.

Like the Warriors to win but the forecast rain throws numerous play options into doubt. An inch of rain is forecast for late arvo, should some of this come early then a 4 point line or the total points become guess work, happy to pass.


Rabbits vs Broncos

+7.5 Rabbits

Stats

The 2nd and final match on Super Saturday sees 2 sides in desperate need of a win when the Rabbitohs host the Broncos at ANZ Stadium. Wins have been few and far between in recent times for both sides, with just 1 win between them from their last 10 matches combined. Wins have been shared equally since 2011, with both sides securing 5 victories each, while the Broncos have recorded comprehensive wins in the 2 most recent encounters. In 6 of the last 7 clashes between the Rabbitohs and Broncos the winning margin has been by 13+, while 4 of the last 5 encounters have topped 42 points. Souths come into this match off the back of 5 straight losses to be looking down the barrel at 6 consecutive defeats in a season for the 1st time since 2008. They are now in 12th spot on the ladder to rank 11th in attack and 13th in defence, conceding 24 points a game and they haven’t been in the Top 8 since Round 7. They have trailed at half time in 10 of their last 11, scoring an average of just 5 1st half points during that time and only in 1 of those have they been able to overcome the deficit to win. They are 6-10 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 5 as a home underdog. In TMP’s they are 11-5 Over, with 7 of their last 8 topping 42, while 7 of their last 8 at ANZ Stadium have also finished Over and totaled 42 or more. Like the Rabbitohs, the Broncos too have been on a downward spiral and have dropped from 1st to 6th over the last 8 weeks. They have lost 5 of their last 6 and 5 of their last 6 played away from Suncorp Stadium, as well as having a poor record at ANZ Stadium, with just 2 wins from their last 8 games at the ground. After sitting 1st and 2 nd in defence and attack rankings in Round 8, Brisbane are now ranked 5th and 6th and have conceded an average of 30 points a game since Round 10. The Broncos are 7-9 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 5 and in 5 of their last 6 as a road favourite. In TMP’s they are split 8-8, with their last 4 finishing Over and in 3 of those 4 the total has been 54. Brisbane has scored the 1st points of the match in 13 of their 16 matches, while the Rabbitohs have conceded 1st points in 8 of their last 11. In the Broncos last 10 matches the 1st try of the match hasn’t been scored until after the 7th minute and this has also been the case in the Rabbitohs last 5.

Preview

Two sides spinning in circles looking for a win and some form. It’s more a choice of who doesn’t quite look the worse of the two than it is a form line to reference. The Rabbits have lost 9 of their last 11 games, a horrendous run, while the Broncos have lost 6 of their last 8, it’s not a pretty scenario. The Rabbits have through recent days sacked two top grade players (and at least we know they stand for something unlike a few other clubs), lose Inglis and have some doubts over Reynolds (although expected to play). The Broncos lose Parker but importantly get their other Origin players back who’ll they’ll desperately need here, especially on their weakened left edge.

Given the weakened and limping list that the Rabbits are playing with here the Broncos get their chance to break through and win. But the option that does look to stand out here is the total game points over, which by my model I rate a 80% chance. The Rabbits have been over at 11 of their last 16 games, the Broncos over at the last 4 outings, and 4 of the last 5 H2H games have been over three of which have seen scores near 60, I think that’s the right way to play this.

Bet 2 units Rabbits vs Broncos over 39.5 $1.90 Luxbet / 40.5 $1.90 Tab Sportsbet


Knights vs Storm

+12.5 Knights

Stats

Sunday football kicks off in the Hunter in what shapes as a total mismatch when the Wooden Spoon favourites Newcastle take on Premiership favourites, the Melbourne Storm. The Knights hold a 10-5 all time advantage over the Storm at Hunter Stadium but wins have been shared equally at the ground since 2005, with both sides recording 4 wins each. The majority of recent meetings have been closely fought contests, with 7 of the last 9 clashes having been decided by a margin of 1-12 points and 4 of the last 7 decided by 4 points or less. Newcastle has lost 10 in a row and their last 5 at home, conceding an average of almost 38 points a game and remain winless against a current Top 8 opponent. They have been anchored at the bottom of the ladder for the last 10 weeks and are ranked 16th in both attack and defence. Newcastle is 6-10 ATS with an 8-10 cover record since 2014 when getting a double digit start, which improves to 4-2 when those matches have been played at home. They are 10-6 Over in TMP’s, with a 6-1 Over record against the Top 8 at an average of 51. The Knights have scored the 1st try of the match in 6 of the previous 7 meetings with the Storm, but they have conceded the 1 st try in 6 of 7 at home this season. Melbourne has won 9 of their last 10 which has seen them sit no lower than 3rd on the ladder during that period. They are ranked 5th in attack and have the best defensive record in the NRL, conceding just 11 points a game. They have won 5 of their last 6 on the road and remain unbeaten against sides in the bottom half of the ladder, winning 8 from 8. The Storm is 9-7 ATS with a 5-3 cover record on the road, while they have a 5-7 record since 2014 when giving up a double digit start. They are 11-5 Under in TMP’s, with a 6-2 Under record away from home. Away teams laying a double digit start at the line have won 11 straight dating back to 2014. Suliasa Vunivalu has scored 16 tries in 10 appearances for Melbourne since making his debut in Round 7, bagging 5 doubles and 2 hat tricks.

Preview

Think this is the right week to take the risk of being with the Knights at home with a long line start.

One thing we have discussed during this season with the Knights has been the likelihood of them saving / playing their best when at home, and picking the right occasions when that looked likely. Until recent weeks they have gone through a terrible run of injury outs which with their thin and ordinary depth has left them venerable to some touch ups, but through the last few weeks this has changed with the key returns of Rochow and Saifiti last game and now here a further 4 key ins with Mullen, Pat Mata’uti, Pauli Pauli and Paea, plus they get Gagai back from Origin – it’s their strongest line up for quite some weeks.

Add then to this the fact that the Knights like playing the Storm and they are one team they consistently seem to aim up against, they have a long term 10-5 win record over the Storm in Newcastle plus they have also won 2 of the past 3 H2H (and should have won the latest clash in Melbourne earlier this season when they led right to the death). They are also well suited with their favoured weekend home game time of 2pm Sunday where they will have strong home support.

Clearly the Storm are top of table for a reason and at full strength with no issues they can threaten anyone at present. But into this game they will be without key forwards Mclean, Glasby and Asofa-Solomona, still have doubts over Harris and Munster and the possibility that Bellamy may rest Smith or Cronk at some stage (this week or at game in the weeks ahead).

While I expect the Storm win I do think their are multiple reasons to suggest a 20 point line is way too generous and a nice betting proposition. Knights at home, off bye freshen up, favoured home game time slot, excellent H2H record vs this opponent and importantly their strongest team list line up for months. This is also the longest line start they have received at home this season, I have it much shorter at something like 12.5 and for mine its the right time to be with it.

Bet 3 units Knights +18.5 $1.91 William Hill BB


Panthers vs Eels

-7.5 Panthers

Stats

Just another normal week for Parramatta who must now have the full boxed set when it comes to high drama and controversy, whether they can put that aside will have a major impact on the outcome of this week’s result when they travel to Pepper Stadium to take on the out of form Panthers. There hasn’t been much between these 2 sides over the years, with the Eels holding a slight advantage all time, while the last 10 matches played at Pepper Stadium have been split evenly since 2006. Parramatta had won 3 of the previous 4 before the Panthers grabbed a last minute victory when they last met in Round 5. The Eels have finally been stripped of their 12 competition points and as a result they are now in 14th spot, they are ranked 12th in attack but are equal 4th in defence (unadjusted). They have won 5 from 7 on the road this season, but have lost 7 of their last 10 as a road dog. Parramatta is 10-6 ATS and they have covered in 5 of 7 on the road, while the away teams have covered in 8 of the last 9 matches when Ben Cummins has been in charge. The Eels are 10-6 Under in TMP’s, while their last 3 have all finished Over. They have conceded just 2 tries through their middle 3rd this season (ranked 1st), compared to 15 at the same time last year. Bevan French has scored 7 tries in his 5 appearances for Parramatta since his debut in Round 12. The Panthers have now lost 4 of their last 6 and have conceded 24 points or more in all 6 matches. They are at home for the 2nd week in a row, but have won only 2 of 6 at Pepper Stadium this season. Penrith have now dropped to 10th on the ladder and are also ranked 10th in both attack and defence. They are split 8-8 ATS, with a 4-5 cover record at home and have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 when giving up a start. Their TMP record is also split 8-8 with 5 of their last 7 topping 48, while 7 of the last 8 clashes with the Eels at Pepper Stadium have topped 44. A Panthers try has been the 1st scoring play in 6 of the last 7 meetings with Parramatta at Pepper Stadium. Josh Mansour is the Panthers leading try scorer with 8 and 5 of those have come from his last 5 appearances.

Preview

Another game that has whiskers on it. The Eels lose Norman and Radradra and have makeshift combinations right across their back 7, especially in their halves. As again shown last week Arthur seems to keep finding a way to get them up and competing.

Less said on the Panthers the better. They were pathetic last week when gifted an opportunity to beat a weakened opponent at home, and as I outlined then Griffin has no idea how to coach attack. Yet they are again dished up as warm favs and a 12 pt line, give me a break. They get Moylan back but I couldn’t touch them with stolen money.

Panthers at home, but certainly a watch game.


Roosters vs Sharks

+5.5 Roosters

Stats

The Roosters will be looking to avoid 5 consecutive defeats for the 2nd time this season when they host the Sharks at Allianz Stadium in Monday Night Football. The numbers are stacked against the Roosters who have defeated Cronulla just 3 times in the last 11 meetings dating back to 2006, while the Sharks are chasing their 14th straight victory. The Tri-Colours have lost 6 of their last 7 and are yet to defeat a Top 8 opponent, losing 8 from 8. For the 10th week in a row the Roosters are anchored in 15th place, while their differential of -114 ranks 14th, as does both their attack and defence rankings. They are 6-10 ATS with a 2-4 cover record as a home underdog, while they have lost 6 from 6 as outsiders at home. The Roosters are 11-5 Over in TMP’s, with a 5-1 Over record at home when getting a start, while 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Sharks at Allianz Stadium have all gone Over. Matches refereed by Ashley Klein have also favoured the Overs, producing a 13-5 result season to date, including the last 7 straight. Home underdogs are 3-1 ATS in 2016 and 9-13 since 2014, while they are 3-5 over the same period when getting 6 or more points start. The Sharks continue to lead the competition with 13 straight wins and are looking to become just the 3rd side in more than 20 years to win 14 in a row. They rank 3rd in attack and have the 2nd best defensive record, conceding less than 16 points a game. Cronulla are 10-6 ATS but have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 when giving up a start of 6 or more, but have covered in the last 5 clashes with the Roosters. They are 9-7 Under in TMP’s, while 4 of their last 5 on the road have finished Over. Ben Barba has been the Sharks 1st try scorer on 5 occasions this year, while Valentine Holmes is their leading try scorer with 12. The Roosters have lost their 3 previous games of MNF and failed to cover in all of them, while the Sharks have won their 3 Monday night games in 2016 and have covered in all of them. Only 1 of the previous 8 meetings between these sides has been decided by a margin of more than 12 points.

Preview

Tricky game. Roosters have been good in patches through recent weeks but they keep promising something but can’t run out a strong 80 minutes and win. They do have their best line up for some time here and play at home, which is normally an advantage to them. Off a losing streak they will be keen to break through, but this is not an easy assignment.

Sharks have been very good, clearly won 13 straight and would have to be buoyed by their quality underdog win at Penrith last weekend when without all of their origin players. They get all but Fifita back and those players will have had a nice break since mid last week. Teams that are on strong winning runs breed confidence and belief and become hard to beat, even on an off day. The Sharks have attack options and seem to lift when required.

The Roosters have been heavily backed through the last two days with the line shortening from 6.5 to 4.5. I don’t want to play either way, I have tipped the Sharks but a tight close affair looks likely.

If you are looking for a betting interest to watch with the game then the Tri Bet either team to win by under 6.5 points looks the best play ($2.95 Sportsbet), which positions you for either team to win by a short margin up to 6.5 points.



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All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 3 Preview

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 3 Preview

 

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2013-17: Profit +104.53 units | 321 winners / 589 bets | strike rate 54.5%


 

Origin 2016 – Game 3


 

Origin 2016 – Game 3 Recommended Bets

 

QLD $2.05

Total Points Over 36.5 $1.90

Anytime Try Scorer: Gavin Cooper $4.50

Man of the Match: Jonathon Thurston $8.00

The above bets are the favoured bet types MrG has recommended for this game.

 

NSW vs QLD

Sydney

 

Preview

QLD lead the series 2-0

Of the last 7 dead rubber games on 4 occasions the side leading 2-0 have gone on to win the series as a clean sweep (3-0)

The last 3 times NSW have been up against it (down 2-0) into a dead rubber game at home they have lost all 3

So lets just recap. QLD have now won 10 of the last 11 series. But, they are beatable, and have been in my opinion through recent years. After winning the series 3 years ago NSW had enough ball to win two games in Game 1 2015 yet couldn’t win; then won Game 2 yet were then soundly flogged (52-6) in the series decider Game 3. This year NSW (at home) in Game 1 once again had enough ball to win two games on one night yet could only score one try and lost (6-4); lost Game 2 (26-16) and now face a dead rubber game back at home.

Through the last 4 years under Daley as coach NSW have averaged approx. 10 points in attack, and consistently shown an obsession for a bash and barge, defensive and negative approach. We don’t have to be major students of the game to understand that scoring around 10 points each contest ain’t going to win you many at this level.

The great Choppy Close made a wonderful point in a radio interview a few weeks ago about NSW, they’ve been obsessed through recent years with how to shut QLD down not how to play their own game, and importantly pick and play to some strengths. Summed it up beautifully!

Do you see a pattern developing here?

And please don’t give me that line that this QLD side are so good, and such a champion team, and blah blah blah. They have been, an outstanding team, for many years, but they have been very beatable through the last 4 to 5 years, the problem for NSW has been direction, plan and selection.

Now initially I think the NSW team changes are positive. Tedesco, Jack Bird, Graham and Moylan are the way of the future for NSW. Tedesco and Bird reek class, especially the former who is just an attacking genius with 11 tries, 11 try assists and some 80 tackle breaks already season to date – he was an absolute must. Finally Graham has been recognised, and will join Frizelle who was a stand out as best player for NSW in game 2 (on debut). But if we dig a little deeper they are still playing with 5 front rowers (for goodness sake why), a make shift 7, make shift 6 and scattered across their backs list 3 centres and 3 fullbacks. Still the reliance on 5 middle forwards, key attacking / backs playing out of tehir accustomed positions and from latest reports Moylan to start at #6 a role he is yet to accomplish himself at at club level yet now after a few days in camp (and after being dropped) he’ll now start in a key play making role.

NSW can win, and they have a dead rubber event that should be in their favour. But they still have lots of ifs and buts, key ifs and buts about their game plan and combinations that worry me, and more often than not major ifs and buts that doesn’t work at this level.

QLD, well I can’t tell you anything you don’t already know. They are winners, they win at counting sheep in their sleep. Players like Smith, Thurston, Cronk and co just seem to eat this stuff for breakfast (or when allowed to). Watching them through the last 12 months it has almost looked like they have known what NSW were going to throw at them and just stood back like the prized fighter and take a few shots and almost laughed is that all you have got. NSW haven’t asked questions of them which has allowed them to just roll with the game, and step up when they had a half chance, or when it mattered.

If NSW chose to play up tempo (quick play the balls, play direct off #9, ball play off their back row and engage the #1) they have points, they have advantage and they can win. But if Daley is going to use 5 big forwards then this is going to slow them down. The next question is how do the combinations work across the back 7. If they fire they have skill and points, but it’s a major question. But I have little confidence that NSW can get this right.

What’s that old line about poking a champion in the eye? I don’t think this QLD team is finished yet. They know how to step up when it matters, and this game will still matter to them. I expect they’ll clearly target the inexperience of the halves combination, pepper Moylan and once again work over NSW’s right edge defence. In Game 2 they also made some smart unexpected raids at NSW’s left edge as well (multiple tries) which I’m sure we’ll see again. I also expect Thurston leads the way here, he has been near best in each of the opening two games, in quality club form and makes a habit of playing blinders on this stage.

For mine QLD 28-18


 


 

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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 3 Preview

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 18 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-1.5 Eels vs Roosters

-13.5 Bulldogs vs Tigers

-4.5 Panthers vs Sharks

-12.5 Raiders vs Cowboys


NRL Round 18 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Bulldogs -8.5 $1.87 Sportsbet

Bet 1 unit Panthers -2.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet

Bet 3 units Raiders -8.0 $1.88 Crownbet / -8.5 $1.87 William Hill BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Eels, Bulldogs, Panthers, Raiders, QLD


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Eels vs Roosters

-1.5 Eels

Stats

Round 18 kicks off with 2 last start losers when the Parramatta Eels play host to the Sydney Roosters from Pirtek Stadium. The Roosters have won 7 of the last 9 clashes with the Eels, including 3 of the previous 5 meetings at Pirtek Stadium, but are coming into this match off the back of 3 straight losses. They have lost 6 from 7 on the road this season and have lost all of their previous 7 matches against sides currently in the Top 8. They are 6-9 ATS, with a 2-5 covering record on the road, while they are 1-4 on the road since 2014 when getting a start of 2.5 or less. The Roosters continue to be an Overs side and are now 10-5 in favour of the Over, while 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Eels have totaled 42 or more, with an average of 50. It’s the 1st game at Pirtek Stadium in 7 weeks for the Eels who have lost 4 from 6 this season at their true home venue, as well as losing 11 of their last 14 long term. Parramatta has also lost 6 of their last 7 when starting as a home favourite. They have however, won 5 from 7 this season against sides currently ranked in the bottom half of the ladder. The Eels are 9-6 ATS but have a poor 2-6 covering record when giving up a start at home. They are 10-5 Under in TMP’s with a 9-5 Under record as a home favourite since 2014. The Eels have conceded the 1 st try of the match in 7 of their last 9 at Pirtek Stadium and in 3 of the last 5 against the Roosters. In the last 10 meetings, the Roosters have scored more than twice that of the Eels.

Preview

Tricky game, added to with some ins and outs. New purchase Robson will help direct things for Eels, and allows Norman to get on with his job and Takairangi to play where best suited on the right edge; they also get Mannah back in the forwards. Cordner a key in for Roosters on their left edge while they lose Ferguson and Gurrea to Origin..

Eels have a poor recent record vs Roosters over recent years losing 7 of their last 9 H2H, but that is also in the context of each of these two sides having been at opposite ends of teh table through the last 3 yrs, where as that has not been the case this season with the Eels on 9 wins compared to the Roosters 3. One of the things that stood our with Arthur in the last few months of last season when the Eels were out of contention was his ability to get his guys up and focused on playing well (and winning) when it still didn’t matter for points / table. Now that the expectation of having to win just about every game to make the finals has evaporated for this season he again has them doing the same. In their last 3 outings they’ve beaten the Titans, the Rabbits and then led, stretched and should near have won last week vs Sharks at Shark Park, a fair form line.

Roosters clearly are also a show, possibly some of their best form last week but once again they let it slip, and losing has become a norm. They can win, its that sort of match up, but they are hard to trust, especially on the road (losing 6 of last 7).

With the Eels here but not a game I would touch.


Bulldogs vs Tigers

-13.5 Bulldogs

Stats

The Bulldogs and Tigers clash at ANZ Stadium for the 2nd time this season in the only Saturday match of the Round. The Dogs have opened as heavy favourites and are at their shortest price since Round 10, which was also against the Tigers. The Bulldogs have won 8 of their last 10 meetings with the Tigers, including a 32 point thumping when they last met. Both sides have the week off following this match and both sides have had contrasting fortunes leading into a break, with the Bulldogs winning their last 5 matches heading into a Bye, while the Tigers have lost 5 of their last 6 prior to the week off. The Dogs have now moved into the Top 4 for the 1 st time since Round 4 after recording 3 consecutive wins and a win this week will ensure they remain there for at least another couple of weeks with a guaranteed 2 points coming with the Bye. They are undefeated against sides in the bottom half of the ladder, winning 8 from 8 and they have also won 13 of their last 16 matches played at ANZ Stadium. Only once in their last 13 matches have they trailed at half time and they have also led at the break in 7 of the last 10 clashes with the Tigers. They are 7-9 ATS and have covered in only 2 of 7 at home this season. They are 9-7 Over in TMP’s, with their last 6 all going Over, at an average of 48. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of their last 6 matches at ANZ Stadium and in 10 of the last 14 clashes with the Tigers. Curtis Rona has scored 21 tries from 23 matches at ANZ Stadium and he has been the Bulldogs 1st try scorer on 4 occasions this season. Three key outs make this a difficult assignment for the Tigers, with Farah, Woods and most importantly Tedesco all missing through Origin duties. They also have an average record at ANZ Stadium and while they have won 3 of their last 4 at the ground, their long term record reads as 10 wins and 17 losses since 2011. The Tigers are an even 8-8 ATS but have covered in only 2 of their last 11 matches when getting a double digit start. They are 10- 6 Over in TMP’s, with their last 4 totaling 44 points or more, while the previous 8 clashes with the Dogs have all topped 40 points. A winning margin of 13+ has been the result in 5 of the last 6 meetings.

Preview

Tigers have a very poor record when with out Farah and Woods, now add to that possibly their best player and certainly their attacking genius in Tedesco and this certainly looks a challenge. It then also looks hard as to how their line up then holds things together, and they do have a habit of crumbling quickly on occasions.

Bulldogs also lose two to Origin, but they have some quality forward depth. I actually liked a lot more of what I saw about the Bulldogs last week, up against it early against a side playing well they showed some signs of then working hard, doing some tough stuff, getting some of the little things right to build pressure and come home hard to win. I’d suggest that’s the best effort I have seen of them for some months. They also have a quality recent and longer term record at Homebush, winning 3 of 5 here this season.

Bulldogs should be placed to advantage here against an under strength opponent.

Bet 2 units Bulldogs -8.5 $1.87 Sportsbet


Panthers vs Sharks

-4.5 Panthers

Stats

The Panthers will get no better opportunity to knock off the ladder leaders when a depleted Cronulla Sharks side, who are missing 5 players for Origin 3, head out West for a Sunday afternoon showdown. Cronulla set a new club record last week, recording 12 consecutive wins but 13 could prove to be an unlucky number. The Sharks have won 6 of the previous 8 clashes with the Panthers but they are rank outsiders for this clash and have opened at their longest price since Round 1. The Sharks only 2 losses this season have come on the road but they were all the way back in Rounds 1 & 3. Cronulla had been blessed until this point, requiring just 19 players throughout the season, which is the fewest of any club and 4 of their 5 Origin representatives hadn’t missed a game, with Gallen the only player to have spent time on the sidelines. The Sharks sit on top of the ladder for the 6th time in 7 weeks, they are ranked 4th in both attack defence, giving them the 3rd best differential in the competition. They are 9-6 ATS, with a 5-1 covering record on the road, while they have covered in 11 of their last 13 day games and 8 of their last 10 matches when getting a start. The Sharks are 8-7 Under in TMP’s, with a 4-2 Over record away from home, while they are 11-5 Over in day games since 2015. Some indifferent form has seen the Panthers drift in and out of the Top 8 for the last 6 weeks but their next month could well decide whether they are Finals bound, as their next 4 matches are all against sides currently in the Top 8. They have won only 4 of 7 at home this season and only 2 of 5 at Pepper Stadium. The Panthers have won 4 of their last 5 as a home favourite though and come into this match at their 3rd shortest price of the season. They rank 11th in attack and 7th in defence which has them in 9th spot on both the ladder and the differential standings. Penrith are 8-7 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 3 matches at Pepper Stadium. They are 8-7 Over in TMP’s, with 5 of their last 6 at home all topping 40. Only once in their last 6 matches have the Panthers led at half time and they have also trailed at the break in the previous 8 meetings with the Sharks. A winning margin of 1-12 points has been the result in the last 4 clashes and no side has had more 1-12 results than the Panthers (14) and the Sharks (12).

Preview

The Sharks have been on a sensational run of 12 straight wins season to date but this looks a task with the Origin impact of losing 5 key players (and leaders) in Fifita, Bird, Maloney, Gallen and Graham. This punches major holes through their middle, left edge ball play, kicking game (and goal kicking) and right edge, impact right across the park. I’d suggest this is a week where Flanagan looks to patch things up as best he can for one week, give it their best shot but know that within a week they’ll be back to normal.

I’m not sure where the media have been through recent weeks in addressing the poor results coach Griffin has provided with the Panthers this season, for mine he has escaped season to date some obvious attention. I’ve never been a fan of his (as a coach), for mine his record is propped up by Lockyer’s class, and his last two years at the Broncos were shocking delivering significant under performance with the quality of list he had. His key failing in my opinion is his inability to coach attack, coupled with his hair brained ideas in moving key individuals in and out of position (and or murdering their careers). Watch closely what the Panthers do when they play the last 30 mtrs in attack, they have zero idea in how to construct and set up a set of 6 to score (or advantage), zero idea how to work the defence to open a hole, create an overlap or decoy or target a defensive weakness, they just pass and play left to right and hope, hope that a slight piece of skill or muscle or defensive mistake allows them to score. I think the record now stands at 13 of their 18 games this yr have been decided one way or the other by 2 points or less, and people wonder why, this is why, the coach has zero idea (and for those who look closely at his Broncos record it reads the same – clearly Gould didn’t). And then look at players like Cartwright and Peachy, Cartwright is a right edge backrower with significant skill, not a 6, yet now being exposed at 6 while the team loses the benefits of his abilities in his former role; while Peachy is a middle impact forward who has the rare skill of being able to change up a game, the tempo, half breaks, touches of skill – now being wasted completely out of position as left centre….

It’s also not hard to punch holes in the Panthers form winning just 2 of their last 5, both with some large doses of luck against opponents who laid down for important periods of the game (Rabbits and Eagles). They are back at home, should be stung off their loss last week and face an under strength opponent. I’m with them, they get their chance, but lets not hold our breath.

Bet 1 unit Panthers -2.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet


Raiders vs Cowboys

-12.5 Raiders

Stats

A decimated Cowboys side travels from the tropics of Townsville to a chilly Canberra to take on the Raiders in the final match of Round 18. North Queensland will be without 7 regulars through Origin and injury, while the Raiders are forced to make 2 changes with Papalii and Bateman out. The Cowboys have won 8 of the last 10 clashes with the Raiders, including 3 of the last 5 match ups at GIO Stadium, but they start this match at their longest price in 2 years. They have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road, with their only away win coming in their last outing against the Rabbitohs in Cairns. The Cowboys remain in 3rd spot with the best attack and the 2nd best defence, while they also have the 2nd best differential. They are 9-7 ATS, while they are split 4-4 covering on the road and have covered in 15 of their last 21 when getting a start. In TMP’s they are split 8-8, while their last 4 on the road have finished Under, with none of them topping 30. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in 3 of the last 4 meetings at GIO Stadium, while the Cowboys have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 8 of the last 9 clashes. The Raiders are at home for the 2nd week in a row and have won 6 of 8 at GIO Stadium this season. They again start as a favourite and have won 5 of their last 6 in that position previously. The Raiders are currently 6th on the ladder and are 8th in defence, while they have the 2nd best attack in the comp with an average of 25 points per game (just a half a point average behind Nth Qld). Canberra is10-6 ATS, with a 5-3 record at home but they have covered in only 9 of their last 23 as a favourite dating back to 2014. The Raiders are 12-4 Over in TMP’s and 7-1 Over at home, with all 8 topping 41 at an average of 52, while the last 7 clashes with the Cowboys have also all topped 41. Both sides have the week off following this match and both sides have average records leading into a Bye, with the Cowboys losing 7 of their last 10, while the Raiders have lost 6 of their last 10. Both sides also have similar form lines, with each winning 3 of their last 5 and both having had a Bye and a loss. In MNF, the Cowboys have won 7 of their last 8, while the Raiders have lost 3 of their last 5 Monday fixtures. The home side has a 10-6 record in MNF and a 9-7 record ATS.

Preview

The Cowboys are the new Broncos with the Origin period really shortening them up, and they have also been highly disadvantaged by the draw this year having to play two games through this period without their key players. With Origin outs and injury they will line up here with 7 key outs in Thurston, Cooper, Scott, Tamou, and O’Neill (all Origin) and Morgan and Linnett (injury). Clearly that’s one long list of quality outs. They also then face an away game with young inexperienced replacements into the freezing cold of Canberra for a night game.

The trick with the Raiders is in working out when to try and catch them as they can be one hell of a head case at times and quickly flick off the boil. Good quality wins through the Bulldogs then Eagles yet with a little belief they then dropped their guard and were smacked by an under performing Broncos, off freshen up then work hard for good away win over Titans then back at home conceding a -26.5 line with the markets again drop their guard and have to storm home late into extra time for a golden point win. And that’s what we are dealing with here, but I think it’s again the right week to be with them. I wasn’t all that surprised that they were off last week, playing a weak opponent who had only won just the 1 game all season, at home, off a good win, but I’m hopeful that has then given them the necessary shake up into this week for Stuart to try and get their heads right to aim up and make a statement here. Their best should see them rolling through the middle with some strength and offer them some room to play, and that should lead to points, and potentially many. Their opponent should be short on combinations and attack options, and defensively much easier than normal to shut down. But, the Raiders have got to come to play.

Raiders get their chance, they have been good at home (winning 6 of their last 8) and get conditions (freezing) and a significantly weakened opponent to suit. If they get this right they can win comfortably, but with them nothing is straight forward and we’ll now have to see how they turn up.

Bet 3 units Raiders -8.0 $1.88 Crownbet


NSW vs QLD

I shall do a separate preview through the weekend for this game, but some short initial notes. Clearly NSW get their chance here, back at home, dead rubber game and some positive team changes, their should be no excuse. I do have concerns still over the stupidity of playing 5 front rowers, and if Daley will have any preparedness to ball play through the middle, play direct off his halves (who as of today are yet to be decided) or move the ball. If you thought I was harsh of Griffin don’t get me started on Daley or Fulton. Whereas QLD just get on with the job. No drama, solid selections, they no the drill, laced with brains and experience, and having again won the series buoyed with confidence and belief. Yes its a dead rubber game, but don’t we keep getting the feeling that Smith, Thurston and co just love beating NSW and giving it to them time and again?

So on one hand we have a choice of thinking this game is important to NSW, a hunch that they might get their attack right, and a hope that the new and inexperienced combinations work. Or the other choice is a mob who win when counting sheep in their sleep, know how to play the big stuff under pressure, are riding on the back of winning confidence and would love nothing more than to stick it to their opposition with a 3 zip result.

Being a dead rubber game it has lots of ifs and buts about it but I’m with the long term proven, the mob who win and we know what we are going to get, not the hopeful hunch.



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 17

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 17

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 17 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+3.5 Roosters vs Bulldogs

-3.5 Broncos vs Storm

-5.5 Warriors vs Titans

+5.5 Tigers vs Panthers

-17.5 Sharks vs Eels

-18.5 Raiders vs Knights

+12.5 Rabbits vs Cowboys

-7.5 Eagles vs Dragons

 


NRL Round 17 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Broncos-Storm Under 39.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 1 units Storm +5.5 $1.97 Pinnacle

Bet 3 units Titans +12.0 $1.92 Pinnacle

Bet 3 units Sharks H2H x Cowboys H2H $1.78 Sportsbet BB

Bet 2 units Eagles -3.5 $1.90 Topsport

 

Round 18

Bet 2 units Bulldogs -8.5 $1.87 Sportsbet

Bet 1 unit Panthers -2.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet

Bet 3 units Raiders -8.0 $1.88 Crownbet / -8.5 $1.87 William Hill BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Bulldogs, Storm, Warriors, Tigers, Sharks, Raiders, Cowboys, Eagles


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Roosters vs Bulldogs

+3.5 Roosters

Stats

The Roosters will be fresh after the week off and they have won 6 of their last 7 when coming off a Bye. They will be looking to make amends after their last effort at home when they suffered their biggest ever defeat at Allianz Stadium, conceding 46 unanswered points against the Storm. The Roosters have a good recent record over the Bulldogs, winning 6 of the last 8 clashes, as well as winning 6 of the previous 8 clashes at Allianz Stadium, where the Dogs have a 50/50 record since 2010, winning 5 of 10. For the 8th week in a row the Roosters sit 2nd last on the ladder, with the 2nd worst differential in the comp, while they are ranked 12th in defence and 14th in attack. They are 5-9 ATS, with a 3-5 record at Allianz Stadium, while they have covered in 4 of the previous 5 clashes with the Bulldogs. They are 9-5 Over in TMP’s and clashes against the Dogs have more often than not, also been high scoring affairs, with the last 3 totalling 50 or more, while 12 of the last 14 clashes have totalled 38 or more. The Bulldogs will be looking to make it 3 consecutive wins for the 1st time in 2016, as well as defeating the Roosters twice in a season for the 1st time since 2012. A win will also see them move into the Top 4 for the 1st time since Round 4, while a loss could see them drop as low as 7th. The Dogs are ranked 5th in attack and 6th in defence, giving them the 5th best differential. They are 7-8 ATS, with a 5-3 covering record on the road, while they have covered in 3 of 4 in 2016 as a road favourite. In TMP’s they are 8-7 Over, with 4 of their last 5 totalling 50 or more. The Bulldogs have led at half time in their last 10 matches, but only once in the last 8 clashes with the Roosters have they led at the break. In 9 of the last 10 matches where Grant Atkins has been the lead referee, the home side has failed to cover the line.

Preview

Don’t like the game. Roosters off freshen up with 3 possibly 4 key ins to return (some whispers Cordner may play), have lost 4 of last 5 but with stronger list and Pearce calling the shots I expect to improve here at home. Bulldogs dusted up the Broncos last week but that second half was very soft, their halves still frustrate the hell out of me with their lack of ability to take hold of a game by the scruff of the neck and direct it as it should be played.

Bulldogs, but looks very even at the line and I shall just be watching.


Broncos vs Storm

-3.5 Broncos

Stats

To say that the Storm have a dominant record over the Broncos is an understatement, with Melbourne recording 16 wins from the last 19 clashes with Brisbane dating back to 2007, while they have also won 9 of the last 10 meetings at Suncorp Stadium since 2005. Brisbane is coming off their biggest loss of the season and they have now lost 5 of their last 7. Despite their poor recent form, they still rank 3rd in attack but have slipped to 5th in defence. They are 7-8 ATS and have failed to cover in the last 5 clashes with Melbourne. They do have a positive record when covering at home, producing a 17-8 record as a home favourite since 2014. In TMP’s they are 8-7 Under but their last 3 have finished Over, topping 44 points or more. Only once in the last 10 clashes with the Storm have the Broncos led at half time and they have lost 4 from 4 this season when trailing at the break. Brisbane is the Number 1 side for posting the 1st points of the match, opening the scoring in 13 of their 15 matches, but a Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in 10 of the previous 12 clashes with the Broncos. The Storm comes into this match with just 1 loss from their last 9 to sit comfortably in 2nd spot. They have won 5 from 7 on the road and they have also won 5 of their last 7 as a road dog. Melbourne has the best defence and the best differential in the NRL, while they are ranked 6th in attack. They are 8-7 ATS and are 9-7 since 2014 when getting a start on the road. The Storm has had Unders results in 11 of their 15 matches and this has also been the result in 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Broncos. Melbourne has scored the 1st points of the match in all 7 of their away games, while Suliasa Vunivalu has been their 1st try scorer in 4 of their last 5 away from home.

Preview

Broncos have lost 7 of their last 8, touched up last week, return home and do get a few key players back. The markets knowledge appears to be that Munster and Green will play here given the line position.

Two coaches who focus on, and pride themselves on defence, and I’d suggest with both having leaked points last week in particular the Broncos all of this week would have been spent focused in this area, in particular getting their heads right. I expect the Broncos will improve, and that we are in for a tight, tough, possibly scrappy game driven by a total group of players driven by defensive effort. Broncos have had problems in the halves,notably Hunt all season,his form is just plain terrible, but again I don’t expect their attack or running of the ball to have had much work applied to it this week.

Both teams come off short turn arounds into a Thursday night game. I want to be with the Storm, they have been winning, they have confidence and belief, have a good record at this ground, and defensively have been very tight most weeks. They concede only 10 pts a week most weeks, notably when on the road, and 6 of their last 7 road games have all gone under. Broncos longer term record defending at home is also good, with an average of near 12, and H2H these two teams last 5 games have all been tight offerings with totals averaging just 31 pts.

I just have to have a small play on the Storm here, the price and start is just too big for a winning side with such a significant record over their opponent and at the ground against a side who have lost 6 of their last 7.

Bet 2 units Broncos-Storm Under 39.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 1 units Storm +5.5 $1.97 Pinnacle


Warriors vs Titans

-5.5 Warriors

Stats

The only match of the round featuring 2 last start losers kicks off Super Saturday when the Warriors clash with the Titans at Mt Smart Stadium. The Warriors have won 9 of the last 10 clashes with the Titans, including winning 4 of the previous 5 clashes that have been played at Mt Smart Stadium. They have won 3 of their last 4 and 3 of their last 4 at home but are still yet to feature in the Top 8 this season. They come into this match with the 7th best record in attack but they are 13th in defence, conceding an average of 24 points a game. The Warriors are 7-8 ATS with a 3-4 covering record at home, while they have an 8-7 record at home when giving up a start of more than a converted try. They are 10-5 Over in TMP’s, with 7 of their 15 matches totaling 50 or more. A Warriors try has been the first scoring play in 11 of the last 13 meetings with the Titans and they have also scored the first try of the 2nd half in 8 of the last 9 clashes. Shaun Johnson has been the Warriors 1st try scorer in their last 4 games played at home. After recording 3 straight wins, the Titans have now lost 2 of their last 3, which has seen them drop from 8th to 10th on the ladder. They rank 9th in attack, scoring an average of 21 points a game, while they rank 10th in defence, conceding 22 points per game. The Titans have been very favourable ATS, covering in 10 of their 15 matches and they have covered in 5 of their 6 games as a road dog. In TMP’s they are 8-7 Over and 5-2 Over on the road, while the previous 7 (and 14 of the last 16) clashes with the Warriors have totaled 40 or more, with an average of 48. Only once in their 7 away games have the Titans led at half time and they have also led only once against the Warriors from the previous 8 meetings at Mt Smart Stadium. The Titans have the week off following this match and their pre Bye record is poor, recording just 3 wins from their last 13 matches. The home side has won 9 of the last 10 matches when Matt Cecchin has been in charge.

Preview

Warriors have to be a significant risk here, and while I expect them might well win the line is way long especially against a side like the Titans who a) have such and excellent road record as underdog, and b) will chance their arm in attack here and make things interesting.

The Warriors are rolling along with their typical mid season Origin run where they are winning against sides mostly carrying the burned of key outs or rep footy workload. They got the Sharks under such last week for a near win, struggled against a depleted Roosters the week prior. The walked through the Knights which is par for the course and when under serious focus and pressure aimed up to dust up the Broncos – a form line that right now also has its own question marks all over it. The key here is that having won 2 of their last 4 they have a soft glow about themselves of having dropped some of the pressure and importantly they are up against a team with no Origin baggage.

Titans look to have found their level through recent weeks, but that is a similar level to the Warriors, and for mine certainly not a level with a possible 14 point gap between them. They got steam rolled with some momentum last week vs Raiders, but they weren’t that far away. They have the best underdog away record in the comp, 25 line covers from last 36 road games (70%), and this gets even better when underdogs with 6.5 or more start covering 17 of their last 25 (70%).

I have also made the point previously that the Warriors are very poor home favs under expectation, especially through recent years when they have been such inconsistent head jobs, and just looking at their last 7 home games as fav against highlights this point, covering the line just 2 of those 7.

Warriors likely to squeak home with a win but the Titans with 12 point or better line start certainly the play here.

Bet 3 units Titans +12.0 $1.92 Pinnacle


Tigers vs Panthers

+5.5 Tigers

Stats

The Tigers had won 7 straight against the Panthers before Penrith recorded back to back victories in the 2 most recent encounters. The Panthers will be looking to consolidate their spot in the Top 8, while keeping at bay those behind them that are trying to take their place. A win will make it 3 consecutive victories for the 1st time since 2014, as well as making it 3 straight wins over the Tigers for the 1st time since 2010. The Panthers come into this match with a 7-7 win loss record, they are ranked 7th in attack and 11th in defence, while their differential ranks 8 th. All but 1 of their 14 matches has been decided by a margin of 1-12, with 7 of them decided by 2 points or less. They are 8-6 ATS, with a 5-2 covering record as an away side, while they are 5-3 since 2014 when giving up a start on the road. The Panthers are split evenly in TMP’s, with a 7-7 result, while 5 of their last 6 on the road have finished Under, with only 1 of them totaling more than 38. The Panthers last 4 matches at ANZ Stadium have all finished Under in TMP’s and have all been decided by a margin of 1-12. It’s a must win game for the Panthers, who play 3 of the Top 5 sides in their next 3 games. It’s the start of a tough run home for the Tigers, who play 6 of their last 9 games against sides currently in the Top 8 and they have only won 1 of 7 against the Top 8 sides to this point. They currently sit 12th on the ladder, with their attack ranking 10th, while they have the 2nd worst defensive record in the NRL, conceding 25 points a game. They have lost 5 of their last 7 at ANZ Stadium and 4 of their last 5 as a home underdog. They are 7-8 ATS and have a 7-5 covering record since 2015 when getting a start at home. They favour the Overs in TMP’s, producing a 9-6 result, while they are 7-4 Over at ANZ Stadium in night games since 2014. The Tigers have conceded the 1st try of the match in all 7 of their previous matches against a top 8 opponent.

Preview

Very tricky game with two teams harder to catch than trouble at 3am. And we saw all the best and worst of both of them last week, further underlining how tricky they are to catch. Panthers did everything as they should have to lead by 14 with 6 minutes left, at home, against an opponent (Rabbits) who have won just 5 games and are leaking 30 a week and were all out on their feet. They then let two soft tries in to just sneak home by 2 points. Tigers something similar, gone for all money with a terrible first half offering leaking 26 easy points, yet then following a half time rev up aimed up when it didn’t matter to make things some what close in the second 40.

If, and its a major if, but if the Tigers put their best foot forward here they have one of their strongest team lists with Farah back, quality attack and their best form better than their opponent. I lent that way but will staying well away.


Sharks vs Eels

-17.5 Sharks

Stats

The 4 th placed Parramatta Eels travel to Shark Park to tackle the table topping Cronulla Sharks to close out Super Saturday. Not only is this the only match of the Round featuring 2 last start winners, neither one of these sides has been beaten for the last 5 weeks. The Eels are looking for 4 straight wins for the 1st time since 2010, while the Sharks are aiming for a club record 12 consecutive wins for the 1st time in their 50 year history. The Eels have won 4 of the last 6 clashes with the Sharks, but have recorded just the 1 win from the last 4 meetings at Shark Park. Parramatta has had the week off but it hasn’t served them well previously, as they have lost 10 of their last 12 coming out of a Bye. They have won 5 from 6 on the road this season, while they are 4 and 4 against their Top 8 counterparts. Parramatta are ranked 13th in attack, but have the 2nd best defensive record in the NRL, conceding 14 points a game. The Eels are 8-6 ATS, while they are 6-6 since 2015 as a road dog. They are 10-4 Under in TMP’s, while 11 of their last 14 night games have also finished Under. The Eels have scored the 1st try of the match in 8 of the last 9 meetings with the Sharks, who have conceded the 1st try in their past 3 matches. The Sharks sit on top of the ladder for the 5th time in 6 weeks, they are ranked 4th in attack and 3rd in defence, giving them the 3 rd best differential in the competition. They remain unbeaten at home, extending their winning run at Shark Park to 8, when they snuck home last week against the Warriors. Their last 7 matches at home have been decided by a margin of 1-12 and this has also been the margin in 6 of their 7 matches against the Top 8, with the Sharks winning 6 of those. They are 9-5 ATS, while they have an 8-11 covering record since 2014 when giving up a start at home. The Sharks are 8-6 Under in TMP’s, with 6 of their 8 home games finishing that way.

Preview

Sharks clearly look the obvious here, and certainly should win, but just some caution with the length of line at -10.5 (12 pts). While they keep winning their record at the line is poor having covered just 2 of their last 6 at home, and just 4 of their last 13 when at home and favs conceding 6.0 or more. And just to add some spice to this the Eels have covered the line at 7 of their last 9 games when playing away from Parra Stadium.

The Eels are in a mess in every which way at present and have nothing to recommend right now. Sharks certainly should win, but I’ll pass on a 12 point line that then looks to make the game line ball.


Raiders vs Knights

-18.5 Raiders

Stats

The Knights travel to the Nation’s Capital in what will be a chilly Sunday afternoon in Canberra. There was nothing between these sides when they last met in Round 3, with both sides leaving Hunter Stadium with a point each but it shapes as a different contest this week. The Raiders start as the 2nd shortest favourite of the season and have given up the biggest line of any side since Round 25, 2014. They have won 5 of 7 at home and 4 of their last 5 which sees them sitting 7th on the ladder. They are ranked 9th in defence, while they are 2nd in attack, averaging 25 points a game. Canberra is 10-5 ATS and has covered in 7 of their last 8, while they are 5-2 at home. They have a 9-10 covering record as a home favourite since 2014, while home teams giving up a double digit start are 11-8 in 2016. The Raiders are a big Overs side, with 11 of their 15 matches finishing that way and they also favour the Overs in day games, with a 27-10 result since 2014. A Raiders try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 5 meetings with the Knights, while the Knights have conceded the 1st try in their last 7 matches. The Knights have now lost 9 straight and have conceded 20 or more points in all of those matches. They also remain winless on the road, conceding an average of more than 36 points a game. They are 5-10 ATS and have covered in only 1 of 6 this season when getting a double digit start. The Knights also favour the Over’s in TMP’s, producing a 9-6 result, with their last 3 all topping 48. There have usually been plenty of points on offer when these sides meet, with a TMP average of 48 since 2008 and 5 of the last 6 totaling 48 or more but the set point of 52.5 is too high for an interest. A winning margin of 13+ has been the result in 13 of the past 16 meetings.

Preview

Again some caution here. The Raiders will win, but the line and total look tricky positions, and I would certainly wait till the final Raiders team list was announced as I have signifiacant concerns that 2, 3 or more Raiders named players may well not line up, with Hodgson having had a few recent head knocks, Soliola carrying an arm injury, Wighton under some doubt, and possibly others. In what looks a straight forward result for the Raiders I would not be surprised to see Stuart rest some of these key players. That then makes a 26 point line and 54 point total positions a much more tricky equation.

Raiders to be winning, but I will be staying out.


Rabbits vs Cowboys

+12.5 Rabbits

Stats

A home game for the Rabbitohs, but it will be played closer to the Cowboys home base when these 2 sides meet at Barlow Park in Cairns for the 1st time. The Cowboys have won 5 of the last 6 meetings with the Rabbitohs who have now lost 4 straight and another loss this week will make it 5 in a row for the 1st time since 2009. Souths remain 4th last on the ladder, while they rank 8th in attack and 12th in defence and only the Knights have conceded more points than the Rabbitohs since Round 7, at an average of nearly 30. They have lost 5 from 6 against a Top 8 opponent and have trailed at half time in all of those matches. They are 6-9 ATS and have covered in only 2 of 6 when getting a start. The Rabbitohs continue to be an Overs side in TMP’s, with their last 7 totaling 42 or more, while their 3 previous matches at Barlow Park have all topped 52. They have lost 3 of their last 4 heading into a Bye and they have also lost their last 4 matches against Queensland based teams. The Cowboys are holding steady on the ladder, remaining in 3rd place for the 4th week in a row. They will be looking to put back to back wins together for the 1st time since Round 9, going a win loss sequence through their last 7 matches. They rank 4th in defence, while they remain the Number 1 attacking side in the NRL. North Queensland is 8-7 ATS, with a 7-5 record as a favourite, while they have covered in only 1 of the last 5 against South Sydney. They are 8-7 Over in TMP’s, while 4 of the last 6 meetings with the Rabbitohs have topped 42. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of their last 9 matches and they have also scored the opening try in 5 of the previous 7 clashes with the Bunnies. This match shapes up as a high scoring affair, with both sides favouring the Overs, both sides also have Overs records in day games, since 2014 the Rabbits are 9-5 and the Cowboys are 4-1.

Preview

To be played in Cairns.

Rabbits have been in free fall for some time now losing 8 of their last 10 and consistently letting through 30 points a week, its a very poor record for a team who won the comp but 18 mths ago. Reynolds has been named but must still be in doubt and it appears Carter has been stood down or sacked through recent days. They lost one of these “distant” home games a few weeks ago to the Titans in Perth and they face the current Premiers who hold a significant H2H record over them at present.

Thought the Cowboys got lazy last week to start the second half, they led by 10 and looked to have the game to their keeping and normally put their foot down, then as the Eagles threatened they then did putting two tries back on the board within minutes to then go on and win. That’s the thing about this side this year, they have that belief and confidence to be able to back themselves out of just about anything if and when required. With this game in Cairns they have minor travel (about 90 minutes up the road) and will again have vocal local support, and with their ball movement should be able to open up and exploit the defensive deficiencies of their opponent.

These two have meet a number of times through recent years at Nth Qld venues and have often times turned into free flowing open attacking high scoring games. Certainly the Cowboys are stronger than they have been, the Rabbits weaker, expect the Cowboys win and could well do comfortably but off a Monday night game, at a neutral venue and with origin pending I don’t want to play with the 12 point line.


Eagles vs Dragons

-7.5 Eagles

Stats

The Sea Eagles host the Dragons in MNF to close out Round 17 from Brookvale Oval in what shapes as a lack lustre affair. The Dragons have won 15 of 23 all-time against Manly, but the Sea Eagles have prevailed in 4 of the last 5 clashes at Brookvale Oval. Things are becoming desperate for the Sea Eagles, who are looking at 8 straight losses for the 1st time this century. Despite going down to the Cowboys last week, Manly were close to a break through win and will have gained some much needed confidence. They will need to address a very poor home record, with just 1 win from 7 matches this season. Manly are 14th on the ladder, with their attack ranking 12th, while they are 3rd last in the defensive standings. They are 5-10 ATS and have failed to cover in 8 of their last 9 as the home side. Manly is 8-7 Under in TMP’s, while 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Dragons have also finished Under, with an average of less than 30. Only once in the past 8 meetings have the Sea Eagles scored the 1st points of the match, while the half time leader has gone on to win the last 11 matches. The Dragons are on the road for the 2nd week in a row after disposing of the Knights last week but only once in the last 5 years have they managed to record back to back road wins and they have also lost 2 of their 3 most recent matches against a bottom 8 opponent. They are currently positioned in 9th, with the 8th best defensive record, but they have the 2nd worst attacking record in the competition. The Dragons have been great front runners in 2016, winning 8 from 8 with a half time lead, but they have lost 7 from 7 when trailing at the break. They have averaged just 5 2nd half points this season and only once in 15 matches have they outscored their opponent in the 2nd half. They are 8-7 ATS, with a 3-5 covering record on the road, while they have covered in only 4 of their last 11 away games when getting a start of less than a converted try. In TMP’s they are 11-4 Under, with a 6-2 Under record on the road. The last 5 clashes have been decided by a margin of 1-12 and this has also been the result in both sides last 5 matches. The home team has won 10 of 12 matches refereed by Gavin Badger in 2016, while home teams are 9-6 in Monday Night Football. Teams off MNF have also won 9 of 13, while Monday night matches have an 11-4 Under record in TMP’s.

Preview

I think this is the right game for the Eagles. They have been getting key players back over the last few weeks, notably Cherry-Evans and Lyon at 7 and 6 to offer some quality and leadership, and their forward offering is much better than it has been with far more hit and hurt in it now with Fonua-Blake and Vave getting better by the week. I liked what I saw in the 20 minutes after half time last week in Townsville, down by a two try margin they could well have laid down and been run over but came back strongly, especially through the middle, and that is where you start when taking the Dragons on. They have now lost 7 straight but importantly return to Brookvale and have a long healthy 7 day turn around, off the back of that grit and determination we saw they look ready to really want to win.

Leave me out of the Dragons and their form line let alone their current table position, I expect we will see them hit free fall through the next few months and be exposed as a bottom table team. Look a little more closely at their 3 latest wins and they have beaten the Knights (ho hum) and just got over Origin depleted Storm and Cowboys. Only just a few weeks ago they were thumped by the Rabbits who themselves have only won 2 of their last 10 – its a weak form line. And if we want to qualify the Knights form line, the last 11 teams to play them (the Knights) this season only 3 of the 11 have gone on to cover the line the following week. It’s a soft form line that then more often than not bluffs the markets.

I want to be with the Eagles, looks the right week, at home, determined to win, against a side through for mine a paper thin form line.

Bet 2 units Eagles -3.5 $1.90 Topsport



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 16

nrl_tips_reading_the_play

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 16

 

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 16 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-11.5 Panthers vs Rabbits

+8.5 Knights vs Dragons

-9.5 Sharks vs Warriors

-5.5 Bulldogs vs Broncos

+1.5 Titans vs Raiders

-14.5 Storm vs Tigers

-18.5 Cowboys vs Eagles


NRL Round 16 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Panthers -7.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 3 units Bulldogs +1.5 $1.90 Unibet

Bet 2 units Raiders +1.5 $1.89 Crownbet

Bet 3 units Cowboys -15.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Panthers, Dragons, Sharks, Bulldogs, Raiders, Storm, Cowboys


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Panthers vs Rabbits

-11.5 Panthers

Stats

Friday Night Football kicks off Round 16 when the Panthers play host to the Rabbitohs. It’s a must win game for both sides as they look to stay in touch with the Top 8. Penrith has had the week off but the break hasn’t proved beneficial in recent seasons, as they have lost 8 of their last 10 off a Bye, while the Rabbitohs are looking at 4 consecutive losses for the 2nd time this season and needing to win 7 of their last 10 matches to be any chance of Finals football. The Panthers have lost 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Rabbitohs, including 3 of the last 4 meetings played at Pepper Stadium. They have also only won 1 from 4 at their true home ground this season. In 12 of the Panthers 13 matches, the winning margin has been by 1-12, with Penrith winning only half of those. They are 8-5 ATS with a 13-13 covering record at Pepper Stadium since 2014, while they have a 14-13 covering record as a favourite over the same period. They are 7-6 Under in TMP’s and are an Unders side when playing under lights, producing a 26-11 Under record since 2014. In their last 8 matches and in 13 of their last 16 at home, the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 8th minute. The Panthers are ranked 12th in attack and 7th in defence to sit in 9th spot on the ladder. The Rabbitohs season appears to be on a downward spiral off the back of 3 straight losses and 9 losses from their last 12 matches. They are 13th on the ladder with the 9th ranked attack and the 11th ranked defence, conceding an average of 30 points a game from their last 8. They have trailed at half time in 8 of their last 9 and conceded 1st points in 7 of them. They have lost 11 of their last 12 games of FNF and 3 of their last 4 on the road. Souths are 5-9 ATS and have covered in only 1 of their last 5 as a road dog. In TMP’s they are 10-4 Over with their last 6 totaling 42 or more. From 2008 to 2013, 8 of 9 clashes between these sides have totaled 48 or more with an average of 56, but the last 3 encounters have all finished Under with an average just 26. The home team has won 9 of 11 matches refereed by Gavin Badger in 2016, with an 8-3 record ATS.

Preview

Rabbits again with long list of outs losing Reynolds from Origin, Carter, Nielsen, Goodwin, Talakai and Auva’a over just the last few weeks and then add in George Burgess and Hymel Hunt longer term they have at least 8 top grade outs. They have now lost 7 of their last 9 and conceded 30 points a week at their last 8 outings, clearly they are limping.

The Panthers sit mid table and are only just the one win above the Rabbits and need to string some wins together. This match up is typical of their form, winning through teams in the bottom 8, and they got out of jail with their latest effort when storming home against a crumbling Eagles. They come off the bye freshen up, hopefully an advantage here and play back at home.

On paper the Panthers should have significant advantage, but they can be patchy and inconsistent but I’m going with them aiming up here. The Rabbits look a mess, riddled with outs and clearly at lack of unity it’s hard to see with any pressure applied how the go the distance here.

Bet 2 units Panthers -7.5 $1.90 Sportsbet


Knights vs Dragons

+8.5 Knights

Stats

There is nothing super about the opening game of Super Saturday when the Knights meet the Dragons at Hunter Stadium. Both sides are ranked at the bottom of the attack rankings and when combined they have still scored fewer tries than the Cowboys, Broncos and Raiders. The Knights are on an 8 game losing streak and have a very poor record against the Dragons, who have won 8 of the last 10 clashes and 10 of the previous 11 clashes played at Hunter Stadium. Newcastle has just the 1 win after 15 Rounds while the Dragons have registered just the 1 win on the road, losing 6 of 7. In 7 of the last 9 clashes the TMP’s have totaled 38 or less, while a Penalty Goal has opened the scoring in 5 of the previous 9 meetings. The Dragons are split evenly ATS with a 7-7 result, while they are 2-5 on the road. They are 11-3 Under in TMP’s, with a 6-1 Under record away from home. They sit in 11th spot on the ladder and 8th in defence, while they are ranked 2nd last in attack, averaging just over 12 points a game. The Knights are 5-9 ATS, but have a healthy 13-3 record since 2014 as a home underdog. In TMP’s they are 8- 6 Over and are 13-6 Over in day matches at home since 2014. It’s already been a tough season for Newcastle who have been anchored at the bottom of the ladder for the last 7 weeks and they are also ranked 16th in both attack and defence. They have conceded the 1st try in 12 of their 14 matches and have conceded the last try in 9 of their last 10. Only once all season have they posted a score of more than 20 points, while they have conceded fewer than 20 on just 2 occasions.

Preview

Knights have lost their last 8, have won just the 1 game and are leaking 36 points a week. But off a week off and playing at home where they offer their best efforts plus their preparedness to use the footy they might stretch their opponent.

It’s farcical that the Dragons sit mid table with a 50% win record. Last week against a team riddled with 5 or more key outs and playing kids in first up top grade games in key spine roles they were very very close to a major upset loss. The Storm had two near tries where the ball had been placed just short of the line on both occasions, those additional 12 points at the time would have made things very interesting. They do get Frizelle and Dugan back here, and should win, but their attack is just painful to watch as they are so poorly coached.

Ugly game I shall be staying well clear of.


Sharks vs Warriors

-9.5 Sharks

Stats

The table topping Sharks host the 10th placed Warriors in the 2nd game of Super Saturday. It’s a milestone match for both sides, with the Sharks aiming to equal a club record of 11 consecutive wins, while the Warriors will be looking to make it 4 straight victories for the 1st time since 2013. The Warriors caused a major upset when they last travelled to Shark Park to record just their 2nd win at the ground in 9 years. Cronulla has won 6 of the last 8 clashes with the Warriors and they are yet to taste defeat at home this season, winning 7 from 7. They are ranked 4th in attack, while they rank 2 nd in defence giving them the 4th best differential. The Sharks are the 2nd best covering side in the NRL, with a 9-4 record, while they have covered in 11 of their last 16 at home since Round 6 last year. In TMP’s they are 7-6 Under, with a 5-2 Under record at home and an 11-2 Under record since 2015 when playing at home under lights. Consider Valentine Holmes in FTS calculations as he has scored 4 tries from his last 5 games at Shark Park. The Warriors will make the trip across the ditch for only the 2nd time in 2 months and it’s the 1st of 5 away games that they will play from their next 8. They are 3 and 4 on the road in 2016 but their long term away record is poor, winning 11 of their past 35 matches played on Aussie soil. They are ranked 6th in attack but are a lowly 14th in defence, conceding an average of 24 points a game. They are 6-8 ATS and have covered in only 3 of their last 15 matches as a road dog. The Warriors favour the Overs in TMP’s, with a 10-4 record, with 9 of their last 11 totaling 42 or more. The TMP’s have finished Under in 5 of the previous 6 clashes between these 2 sides, with an average of 34, while only 2 of the last 8 meetings at Shark Park have topped 40. In 8 of the last 9 matches where Grant Atkins has been the lead referee, the home side has failed to cover the line.

Preview

For mine a danger game for the Sharks. Having won 10 straight and coming off a very good last start win over the Cowboys plus 5 players backing up off a disheartening NSW Origin loss there has to be some risk of flatness and or complacency. I have no knock on them, that last start win at home vs Cowboys is as good as they have played for many years and a right rating quality form game, but there is going to be a dip or two through the weeks ahead.

Warriors while winning looked back to their complacent patchy best last week, and they have their key play maker in Johnson clearly playing on a leg injury. They have won 3 straight but this is only their second road game into Oz in the last two months and they now walk into a far tougher top of table opponent at full strength as opposed to some of what they have played through recent weeks.

I certainly expect the Sharks win, and their defence at anywhere near where it has been should well be enough to frustrate and shut down the Warriors. But they kiwis can pull one out of their backside and switch on some width ball movement and open things up which against a tired opponent could make things difficult conceding a long line. Sharks to win but happy to just watch.


Bulldogs vs Broncos

-5.5 Bulldogs

Stats

The Bulldogs and Broncos clash at ANZ Stadium to close out Super Saturday. Both sides have a number of players backing up from Origin and the makeup of the sides will have a major bearing on the outcome. Brisbane has had the better of the Bulldogs in recent seasons, winning 4 of the last 5 clashes, including the last 2 meetings at ANZ Stadium. Both sides have had the week off and both sides have been average off a Bye, with the Dogs losing 6 of their last 9 at home off the break, while Brisbane have been a 50/50 proposition since 2009. The Broncos snapped a 3 game losing streak when they defeated the Raiders prior to the Bye and will be looking to consolidate their spot in the Top 4 with a victory over the inconsistent Bulldogs. They return to ANZ Stadium for the 1st time since last year’s Grand Final loss where they have lost 5 of their last 7, with their 2 wins coming at the expense of the Bulldogs. Brisbane are split evenly ATS with a 7-7 record, while they have covered in 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Dogs. They are 8-6 Under in TMP’s, while 7 of the previous 8 meetings with the Dogs have also finished Under, with only 1 of them finishing higher than 38 points. A Broncos try has been the 1 st scoring play in 3 of the last 4 against the Dogs, while they have scored the last try of the match in the previous 6 clashes. The Bulldogs have been hard to catch with 8 wins and 6 losses and have lost 6 of their last 10 as an underdog. They have won 5 of 8 at ANZ Stadium and covered a line in just 4 of them. In their last 9 matches they have gone to half time with a lead but they have gone on to win just 5 of those. They are 6-8 ATS, with a 14-12 covering record since 2014 when getting a start. In TMP’s they are split evenly with a 7-7 result, with a 5-3 Over result at ANZ Stadium. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 5 of their last 6 but they have conceded the last try of the match in 5 of their last 7. Curtis Rona has scored 21 tries from his 22 appearances at ANZ Stadium for the Bulldogs. Only 2 of the Bulldogs 9 last matches have had a margin result of 13+, while 7 of the previous 8 meetings with the Broncos have been decided by a margin of 1-12.

Preview

The Broncos look in some trouble at present and their outs are a little more deeper than possibly being given coverage at present, with Thaiday, Glenn, McCullough, Kahu and Reed all on the sidelines and then the obvious 5 back ups off Origin (Boyd, McGuire, Gillett, Parker and Oates). What has also happened with these outs is they have lost their left edge combinations in Glenn, Reed and Kahu (shouldn’t be hard to see where the Bulldogs will want to target) and then Thaiday on the right.

While probably not too much of an issue I will be interested to see how Parker and a few around him handle this week and the next few on the back of his “forced” retirement this week. Contrary to all the media fanfare he did not want to retire and had actually been in serious talks and agreement through the last 6 weeks for a further 1 yr extension until Bennett returned home from England last weekend and tapped him on the shoulder and sweetened the deal with promises of long term life after footy roles with the club (which would have happened anyway). You see Bennett has a major problem right now coming up with the big cash required to re sign Gillett and his cap is full after the juggle he did back in January to get Roberts. Even with Reed heading to England and other reshuffles (including using the money pits of 3rd party support that they have) they haven’t been able to get close. Parker is not happy, but professional enough to know these things happen, but right now the Broncos need all hands on deck given all of their outs and key back ups.

Look a little more closely at their form and but for the fact their last start win at home has taken some glare off it all they are in some trouble. They have now lost 4 of their last 6 and those two wins don’t read all that strongly beating a hapless Eagles and then a Raiders offering last start who laid down for the first 50 minutes. They now travel interstate and face a big physical forward line up with a damaged list.

Clearly the Bulldogs get their chance. They come off the bye and have just the two forwards to back up but also have strong forward depth. They should well have won their last 5 straight but have also had issues with late fades and nailing their games / opponents for the full 80 minutes. They have tho been showing a sharper preparedness through the last 3 to 4 outings to play with the ball and move sides around to advantage.

My numbers rate this with the Bulldogs to advantage, and they can have no excuse here. They should be strong through the middle, look to keep working the Broncos over and target their left edge consistently. I want to be with them.

Bet 3 units Bulldogs +1.5 $1.90 Unibet


Titans vs Raiders

+1.5 Titans

Stats

The Titans are at home for the 2nd week in a row when they face the Raiders in what shapes as one of the better matches of the Round. The Titans have won 7 of the last 10 clashes with the Raiders, as well as winning 6 of the 8 meetings at CBus Super Stadium. They have moved back into the 8 after disposing of Manly in a good win on Monday night and a win this week will see them leap frog Canberra. They have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 26 points or more in all 4 wins which now sees them rank 8 th in attack and 9th in defence, giving them a differential of -6. They continue to be the number 1 covering side in the competition with a 10-4 record ATS, with a 5-2 record at home, while they are 4-7 as a home favourite since 2014. In TMP’s the Titans are split evenly, producing a 7-7 result, while 7 of the last 10 clashes with the Raiders have totaled 40 or more. In the previous 7 clashes the Titans have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half and in 5 of the last 6 they have scored the last try of the match. The Raiders have had the week off and have lost 3 of their last 4 on the road when returning from a Bye, while they have also lost 4 of their last 5 away games. Only once this season have the Raiders been positioned outside the 8, while they are ranked 3rd in attack and 9th in defence. They are 9-5 ATS, with a 4-3 record away from home, while they have covered a line in 20 of their last 28 on the road when getting a start. Their TMP record is 10-4 in favour of the Over and they have also been an Overs side in day games, producing a 26-10 result over the last 3 seasons. A Raiders try has been the 1st scoring play in 6 of the last 9 clashes with the Titans, while the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 8th minute in 6 of the last 7 meetings. The home team has won the last 5 matches with Gerard Sutton in charge.

Preview

Titans have been very good to us but they do look a major risk here. They got the right opponent last Monday yet still looked only fair, they might well have now found their level for this season and this won’t be straight forward. the worry is that through their last 4 games they have either a) been consistently opened up through the middle via shark dummy half darts, ball play or short forward plays, and b) conceding way too much in defence. Although the Eagles only scored 10 points Parcell did very well out of dummy half and split them many times with sharp incisive runs only to be left playing a single hand, that won’t be the case here. They Raiders have two quality 9’s capably for sharp work around the play the ball and a couple of forwards and halves who can play down through the middle to effect. Some weeks you play opponents who have strengths that can hurt you and for the Titans I think this has the potential to be one of those games.

The Raiders shit themselves under some expectation last start vs the Broncos in Brisbane, laid down for the first 50 minutes and were very poor. Their best is much much better than that, they are off a break, Stuart would have spent all week looking to get their heads right and focused back on a very positive effort here. They just need to play to their strengths, pound through the middle, play off the back of their 9, 7 and 6, use the ball, play some footy.

Like the Raiders chances here. Pending Sunday weather and likely final teams news I will also be considering the total points option (to be advised).

Bet 2 units Raiders +1.5 $1.89 Crownbet


Storm vs Tigers

-14.5 Storm

Stats

The Storm will be keen to get back to the winners circle when they take on the Tigers at AAMI Park. The Dragons ended Melbourne’s 7 game winning run last week but the Storm have a number of key ins this week which sees them start at their shortest price since Round 5. They have won 6 from 7 at home this season and have also won 10 of the 11 clashes with the Tigers that have been played in Melbourne. The Storm sit 2nd on the ladder with the 5th best attack, while they have the best defensive record in the NRL, conceding 11.1 points a game, with last week’s loss being the 1st time this season that they have conceded 20 points. They are 8-6 ATS, with a 4-3 record at home, while they have a 5-5 covering record at home since 2014 when giving up a double digit start. Melbourne is 11-3 Under in TMP’s, with only 1 of their last 6 matches totaling more than 38 and low scoring affairs have also been the norm when they have met the Tigers with 7 of the last 8 clashes totaling 38 or less. A Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in 9 of the last 12 meetings with the Tigers, while Melbourne has scored the 1st points of the match in 11 of their 14 matches this season. In 8 of the Storm’s last 9 matches the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 8th minute. The Tigers come into this match after winning 3 of their last 4 but they have a very poor record when travelling, winning only 5 of their last 22 away games and 3 of their last 12 when playing interstate. They have also recorded just 1 win from 6 matches this season against a current Top 8 opponent. They currently sit in 12th spot, with the 2nd worst defensive record in the comp, conceding an average of 25 points a game, while they are ranked 10th in attack. The Tigers are 6-8 ATS and have a 10-20 covering record as an away side since 2014. In TMP’s they are 8-6 in favour of the Overs and they also favour the Over on the road, producing a 19-12 result since 2014. It’s now 14 consecutive games for the Tigers where they have conceded the 1st try of the 2nd half and only the Knights have conceded more 2nd half points than the Tigers. A winning margin of 13+ was the result in 5 consecutive matches prior to the Golden Point match when these sides last met.

Preview

Just a word of caution on waiting for final team announcements here, especially with the Storm given they had 3 late outs last week and also have 2 key Origin backups.

Tigers have won their last 3 of their last 4 but questionable form strength and can be hard to catch. They have a terrible record in Melbourne (lost 10 of last 11), when away (lost 22 of last 27) and when away interstate (lost 9 of last 12) so clearly up against it here. To be any chance they’ll need to risk their hand and play up tempo and attack and move the Storm out of the comfort of their arm wrestle style.

If the Storm are at full strength then their form is very strong, their defence has been outstanding, record at home also excellent winning 6 of last 7. At full strength then I think there is panels between them and I have it handicapped as a 16 point gap, but the final question is who plays.


Cowboys vs Eagles

-18.5 Cowboys

Stats

The final match of Round 16 sees the struggling Sea Eagles travel to Townsville where they will wrap up their Qld road trip when they take on the Cowboys. This clash shapes up as one of the more lopsided matches of the Round, provided all of the Cowboys Origin players are able to back up. Manly holds a 15-11 all time advantage over North Queensland but the Cowboys have won the 4 most recent encounters, with 3 of those 4 wins coming by 14 points or more. The Cowboys come into this match after some patchy form with 3 losses from their last 5 but they will be fresh after the break and their record post Bye is a good one, recording 8 wins from their last 10 matches after the week off. They are also yet to be beaten at home this season, winning 7 from 7 and they have won 16 of their last 18 at home long term. They currently hold down 3rd spot on the ladder and have the 3rd best defensive record, while they remain the Number 1 attacking side in the NRL, averaging 26 points a game. They are 8-6 ATS, with a 5-2 covering record at home, while they have covered in 9 of their last 11 at home when giving up a double digit start and they have also covered in 5 of their last 6 games of MNF. The Cowboys are split 7-7 in TMP’s, while they are 5-2 Over since 2015 in MNF. In 5 of the last 6 clashes with Manly the TMP’s have totaled 42 or more. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in all 7 of their home games as well as in the previous 3 clashes with the Sea Eagles. The Sea Eagles are playing back to back distant away games and have now lost 6 in a row. In 5 of the 6 losses they have conceded 30 points or more which sees them rank 12th in defence, while they are 13th in attack. Manly are 4-10 ATS with a 3-4 record on the road, while they have covered in 6 of their last 8 away from home when getting more than a 6 point start. They are 8-6 Under in TMP’s with 3 of their last 4 on the road finishing that way, while they are 6-3 Under in MNF since 2014. The home side has won and covered a line in 8 of the last 9 matches when Matt Cecchin has been in charge.

Preview

I’d be very surprised if this doesn’t start as a 20 something line by game time. Cowboys will be without Morgan but get nice long turnaround, Origin players 5 day between games, at home (7 from 7 this season) and will be very keen to atone off their last start loss to the Sharks. They look to have strength and physical muscle in the match ups right across the park.

Eagles limping badly, may have one or two ins but Barrett keeps playing games with this named teams, they may also have a few more key outs as Walker looked troubled by injury late on Wednesday as did Trbojevic. They have lost their last 6 straight, have been touched up recently on the road when into interstate games in Brisbane and Gold Coast and now face back to back away games into Townsville. They were embarrassed last Monday night having a mid table side put 30 on them and now face a cranky premiers off a loss on tehir home turf.

If the Cowboys are half serious and play everyone listed then they should be winning by some 20 to 30 points here.

Bet 3 units Cowboys -15.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 16

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 2 Preview

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 2 Preview

 


Origin 2016 – Game 2


 

Origin 2016 – Game 2 Recommended Bets

 

QLD -4.0 $1.90

QLD 1-12 $2.75

Man of the Match: Cameron Smith $9.00

The above bets are the favoured bet types MrG has recommended for this game.

 

QLD vs NSW

Brisbane

 

Preview

A loss into game 2 would see QLD again win the series, and such a staggering 10 of the last 11 – NSW have much to play for! Let’s then put the potential size of that hurdle into some perspective. On the back of having lost 9 of the last 10 series NSW have a very poor record at the ground losing 8 of their last 10 here and to date have been devoid of any attack focus and points. And, critically, when it has mattered in past crunch games like this one when the pressure has been amplified (series result on the line) have more often than not folded quicker than a three legged card table (game 3 last year at this ground thumped 52-6…).

Consider these recent facts as we look at game 2

QLD’s attack / points at their last 10 outings in Brisbane:

W 52-6

W 32-8

L 8-12

W 26-6

W 21-20

W 34-24

W 16-12

W 34-6

L 16-28

W 30-0

So QLD have won 8 of their last 10 outings in Brisbane (7 of their last 8) and importantly averaged 27 points per game in attack.

Then consider the last 10 outings for NSW with Daley as coach, at all grounds, and the lack of attack / points in their game plan.

4, 6, 26, 10, 8, 6, 12, 10, 6, 14 – 10 games with only 3 where they have scored more than 10 points. Huston, we have a problem!

I think Daley and Fulton have dug themselves a massive hole through recent years and are now struggling to find a way out. They went down a path 3 years ago of attempting to shut QLD down, defend them out of the game and so have been picking sides big on muscle, size, 5 or 6 big front rowers so as to just bash and barge forward, try and dominate field position, pick up a try or two along the way and hope they end up in front by full time. Across these last 10 games they have won 4, luckily enough 2 of them in one series which enabled their breakthrough series win, but the facts speak for themselves, this negative low error defensive approach has led to only a 40% win record, negative boring games and dragged what used to be the best vs the best high quality Origin games into a thing long on the past. After all the huff and puff talk prior to game one, and then a 6-4 loss making significant team changes would admit error, and so down the same path they continue….

The other problem that the game 1 loss has caused is it has turned Daley’s per series plan on its head. With two games in Sydney this series his plan with the above approach was to win games 1 and 3 with this arm wrestle, defensive low error plan and do their best in Brisbane. Now he’s down 0/1 and facing a possible series loss on the Marons favoured turf, and either has to ensure NSW can tackle QLD out of this game or adjust his plans and manufacture some points, and I’d suggest they are going to need a minimum of 3 but more likely 4 tries to win. Their record to date wouldn’t endear you with confidence of that happening. See how that hole just seems to be getting deeper?

In watching QLD play and defend this through recent seasons, in particular game 1 of this series you could almost see them giggling to themselves. It’s like watching a car crash in slow motion, you know what’s coming, what’s unfolding, play after play with little variation or change, just defend it. NSW had enough ball and field position in game 1 to have won two games yet their only try came from a doubtful forward pass with a rare passing play at the line. Sound familiar? It’s like a broken record result or these last few years where NSW have had significant ball and field position and been beat. Thurston summed it up perfectly post game one when asked of Daley’s post match bleatings about the refs, saying “so they had that much ball, that much field position and couldn’t score and now its the refs fault”.

Brisbane offers a much different ground / grass surface that is much drier under foot for night games, and combined with the helpful advantage of a screaming full house, their significant past record at the ground and the attacking skill their team is laced with QLD are well advantaged here and most times end up playing attacking footy.

For NSW to be a chance here they have to change things up somewhat. They have to be prepared to ask more questions of QLD’s defence with some constructed attack plays, a preparedness to off load and ball play and open their opponents defensive line up. And don’t think QLD are not ready to be beat, with the right plan and personal they are. They have an aging list, this is probably one of the weakest forward line ups they have offers up for many years and lack mobility if tested against clever dummy half and forward ball play, which in turn would open them up and offer room to play. They have very rarely been put under any pressure on the scoreboard either, and many of their frailties would be exposed if the focus was on ball play, attack and points. They can be beat, just depends what plan you want to throw at them!

For QLD I think we’ll see far more expansive ball movement and emphasis on attack, and I certainly think they’ll see an option to target their favoured left edge (Inglis and Boyd and Oates) running at two questionable defenders in Walker and Ferguson. I think this will be a significant focus, and I expect these two will cop a hell of a work over.

This game looks QLD’s to lose. They walk in here with significant advantage of home track, leading 1 up in the series, some believe and confidence, knowledge that they’ve done this before, left attack edge strength, class and experience where it matters and fanatical home support.

For mine QLD 24-14


 


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Follow us on Twitter at

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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 2 Preview

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of AFL or Horse Racing.