Cox Plate 2013
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on horse racing tips since commencement January 2013 (as at 25/10)
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We have 10 selections now available for Cox Plate Day
Cox Plate Bet
Moonee Valley R10#14 LONG JOHN $7.50 (Betstar)
Moonee Valley R10#14 LONG JOHN
Did us a favour last start in winning the Caulfield Guineas and I have been tracking him since his CT debut win at Bendigo in Match this year. The actual fact that he started off in a 1300m race might tell us that from day 1 the stable didn’t think he was a pure sprinter, and he has only been beaten once (Guineas Prelude when easily best run in race) at that distance and beyond, handling the 1600m quite adequately last start in the Caulfield Guineas. Straight after that race the decision was made to go to this race, so it must always have been at the back of Peter Snowdens mind to target this with his light weight. It is always a dilemma for punters in backing a 3yo in this race, because it is more often that not their first go at the distance and we have little idea of how they will go against the older horses. Interesting though that last year the 2 placegetting 3yos out of the Caulfield Guineas ran very well here (2nd and 3rd) yet their Guineas time in comparison to the Toorak Handicap (same day) compares nowhere near as well as Long John this year. Also Divine Calling who finished 2nd to Long John in the Guineas had previously run a far better adjusted time at Moonee Valley (1500m) prior, in comparison to Fiorente who won the Dato Chin Nam at WFA on the same day. Times suggest the class is no problem for Long John and I have gone on record this week (on Twitter) anyway in saying this is a below par class Cox Plate. The possible exception to that statement is the favourite It’s A Dundeel but his preparation hasn’t been good, he failed to beat similar class horses home at this distance in the Autumn, and his only run at this track last year wasn’t overly encouraging in the 3yo Vase when 2nd to Super Cool in a time that was 4 seconds inferior to the Cox Plate on the day.
LONG JOHN is unbeaten 3/3 off a 2 week break and he will be going forward in the race which has proven so successful in this race recently with All Too Hard running 2nd last year, and So You Think and Manhattan Rain running the Quinella 4 years ago, not to mention Savabeel who won in 2004. Apparently his trackwork has improved since the Guineas, which hopefully translates to an even better performance today. He is yet to miss a place and arguably could be unbeaten with a little more luck in his career, which is eerily similar to what I said about Ocean Park before winning last years race. The only question mark is the distance but his 2nd dam Stockings sired a Hong Kong Gold Cup winner (2000m+) and his 3rd Dam was out of WA Derby winning mare Ngawyni. His sire Street Cry produced Whobegotyou who ran so well in this race in 2010 behind So You Think.
$7.50 on Betstar gives us an EACH WAY bet and he has every chance of running at least a place here.
Of the older horses I think Fiorente is the danger given his eye catching runs this preparation. If he gets a pace to suit up front he will be getting the last run at them here and it augurs well that he came from last on the turn to win the Dato Chin Nam here 2 starts back.
Horse Racing tips and previews will occur across the coming week. Friday (nights), Saturday, Sunday and Wednesday are the most likely days for selections. Any tips on any day will be published by approx 11am.
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