AFL Statsman provides our AFL Tips, Game Previews and Betting Plays
Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL Tips game previews and recommended AFL plays.
Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype, and educated opinion behind his AFL Tips and analysis.
Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky plays and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.
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97.5 units Profit since commencement in 2014!
AFL Statsman in 2019 was able to build on his impressive record which has now delivered AFL subscribers 97.5 units of profit at a strike rate of 57.5% over the past six seasons.
AFL Results here > RTP_AFL Results_2019
Profit +97.5 units
210 winners / 366 bets | strike rate 57.4%
AFL Results here > RTP_AFL Results_2019
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Example AFL Tips Weekly Content
The Tigers have done well to move within reach of the top four given their well documented injury list. They have won 10 of their last 12 against the Dons including a tight 81-73 win in Round 22 last year. Tigers have covered 23 of their last 33 at the G and i lean to them winning and covering – noting Essendon have covered just 5 of their last 14 at the G.Backing the under here is the best bet of the season to date. Hardwick and Worsfold have had kept the last three clashes tight with totals of 154-157-147. We have two traditional rivals under lights at the G with 22 of the last 30 MCG night games going under. Richmond have gone under in 33 of their last 45 off a six day break. The Dons are the best under play in the league going under in 8 of 9 games this season and going under in 10 of their last 14 at the G. And for good measure – showers are forecast and if they arrive will further assist the prospect of the under. The market has moved two points towards the under since our early bet recommendation so we are on at the right price.
Bet 4 units Richmond-Essendon under 159.5 $1.90 Topsport/TAB Best Bet
Result – Richmond 73 Essendon 50 – The forecast rain arrived on cue and after just a solitary goal in a wet first quarter, the under was never in doubt as subscribers having their biggest bet of the season cheered on the arm wrestle!
The Suns are staring down the barrel of some ugly losses in the run home and it doesn’t get any tougher than playing and Adelaide side that has won all 12 matches against the Suns by at least 28 points. Crows to win and cover.
Keen on the over here with the line being set based on the Suns efforts in the first half of the season. The Suns leaked points last start while the last five head to head clashes have all yielded 165 points or more.
Bet 2 units Gold Coast-Adelaide over 157.5 $1.90 Topsport
Result – Adelaide 151 Gold Coast 56 – Yes, this was the infamous game where the Crows coaching box was caught laughing during proceedings. Our subscribers were also laughing – all the way to the bank. We felt that the bookies had framed the total match score market with too much emphasis on the first two thirds of the season when the Suns were one of the top under plays in the competition. We put more weight on the Suns conceding 150 points the previous start and their young list starting to fatigue heading into the final third of the season and the over was never in doubt.
Grand final day is upon us with a great clash awaiting. Richmond arrive at the big day on a 11 game winning streak – which brings back memories of the 2001 Lions entering the Grand Final on a 15 game winning streak and then claiming their first flag. Richmond are at close to full strength – at home – and deserved favourites. GWS are battle hardened and will be ferocious at the contest and I can see the likes of Mumford and Greene crossing the line with their aggression.
The bookies have framed a very accurate market for this match so there are no big bets to be found for this match. Tigers have covered the line in 29 of their last 43 at the MCG. They have won all five of their clashes with GWS at the MCG with the last three wins by margins of 27-36-19 points. This includes a 94-63 victory in Round 17 this year – admittedly with Coniglio going down early for GWS and for these reasons – I want to be on the Tigers.
I’m also happy to take on interstate teams playing against Melbourne sides in the Grand Final. Since the Lions three peat of victories over Melbourne teams – interstate teams have won just two of seven grand finals against Melbourne teams familiar with the MCG – and one of these interstate winners (West Coast) plays at Optus Stadium – with identical dimensions to the MCG. I’m also happy to take on GWS. Yes – it was an inspiring preliminary final win but there is no question that Collingwood was very poor. GWS have only won 4 of 19 at the MCG and only covered 12 of their last 30 outside NSW/ACT. I expect a tight first half – Richmond to pull ahead in the premiership quarter and then kick home in the fourth and cover.
Giants have gone under in 34 of their last 50 away and I lean to the match going under to conclude what has been a very low scoring season
Bet 0.5 units Richmond -17.5 $1.93 Topsport
Result – Richmond 114 GWS 25 – Although only a small bet was recommended, the result was never in doubt with the Tigers winning comfortably and the match also going under.
Additional sample content
2019 Season Preview
2018 Round 23
2018 Round 1
2018 Season Preview
2017 Round 2
2017 Season Preview
AFL Tips Game Previews and Recommended AFL Sports Betting
AFL Statsman in 2019 was able to build on his impressive record which has now delivered AFL subscribers 97.5 units of profit at a strike rate of 57.4% over the past six seasons. This record includes AFL Statsman’s worst run of outs since joining Reading The Play in 2014. Changes to the laws of the game at the beginning of 2016 were one factor that contributed to AFL Statsman falling off the pace at the beginning of 2016. The reduced interchange combined with the paying of free kicks for deliberate out of bounds and 50m penalties encroaching the protected area saw an increase in scoring which impacted line bets and also compromised one of AFL Statsman’s favourite plays – identifying the low scoring arm wrestle and backing the under. Once AFL Statsman refined his selection methodology in response to these changes, he stormed home in the final third of the regular season landing 13 of his last 18 bets at a profit of 16 units. Like any good footy coach, AFL Statsman is adamant that he learns more from his losses than his wins and he is tremendously excited about the potential of his refined selection methodology in 2017. That he then did with an impressive profit result return for 2018!
The Statsman has offered his views and betting strategies privately for a number of years and then formally joined our team in 2014 as our resident AFL man to provide his sports previews and betting tips each week.
AFL Tips and Game Previews and Bets
At Reading The Play we don’t just provide a bet list, we also offer individual game by game previews, key information, analysis and our experts “read” on what is likely to unfold – an informed opinion. Our subscribers enjoy pre game preview thoughts and rational that not only provides them with a potential betting play but a broader “feel” and connection to each game.
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AFL Tips Game Previews and Recommended AFL Sports Betting at Reading The Play