AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 8

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 8

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 8

 

AFL Round 8 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 1 unit GWS-Gold Coast over 197.5 $1.90 Luxbet

Bet 2 units Richmond-Sydney under 185.5 $1.90 Luxbet

Bet 2 units West Coast -40.5 $1.92 Sportsbet  BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Geelong, North Melbourne, Hawthorn, GWS, Collingwood, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, West Coast


Game Previews

GWS v Gold Coast

The Suns have made six changes as injury and poor form bite. It’s hard to see them having the necessary cohesion to stop GWS from racking up a cricket score while the form of Lynch up front will ensure they manage to put some point on the board themselves. The Suns last four matches have yielded over 200 points. GWS also yielded over 200 in three consecutive matches before the streak was ended by a night game against Freo at Subiaco. A warm, dry day in Western Sydney will ensure a fast track for a twilight shootout. The market agrees, moving one point towards the over since Monday.

Bet 1 unit GWS-Gold Coast over 197.5 $1.90 Luxbet


Richmond v Sydney

The rampant Swans travel to the G to take on an under siege Tigers outfit who are yet to cover the spread this season – currently sitting at an inglorious 0-7 ATS. However, the Swans have not played their best football at the G in recent seasons only covering 2 of their last 9 visits. The Swans yielded less than 150 points in their two matches at the G last year. They have a history of arm wrestles with the Tigers with the last five clashes with Richmond yielding between 113 and 173 points. Total match scores in 2016 have had a lean to the over in day and twilight, but still have a slight lean to the under at night. The market agrees with the line moving 4 points towards the under since Monday.

Bet 2 units – Richmond-Sydney under 185.5 $1.90 Luxbet


West Coast v St Kilda

This game suits the ‘flat track bully’ Eagles to a tee. They have covered 13 of their last 17 as a 30.5 plus favourite and face an opponent who have only covered 8 of their last 27 matches away from the G and Etihad. The Eagles have won their last two head to head by 95 and 53 and will be keen to rebound from another road loss and subsequent media criticism. I expect them to atone in their preferred day timeslot. The market agrees, with the line moving up to 4 points towards the Eagles since Monday.

Bet 2 units – West Coast -40.5 $1.92 Sportsbet


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Essendon v North Melbourne – Essendon have only covered 9 of their last 29 at Etihad but I can’t back the Kangas to cover the half century start as their biggest win this season has only been a 38 point margin and they put the cue in the rack versus the Saints late last week.


Hawthorn v Fremantle – Lean towards Freo with the start – they weren’t disgraced against GWS, unlike the Hawks who have been inconsistent and have only covered 2 out of 7 this season. However, I respect the Hawks in day game as they have covered 14 of their last 20 in the day.


Brisbane v Collingwood – Lions save their best for home while Pie have been poor in recent interstate trips. However, Leppitsch is the worst favourite’s coach in the AFL losing four of his last five games as favourite. Lean toward the under with a high line for a night game and Pies 17-4 under interstate across 2013-16.


Carlton v Port Adelaide – Lean toward the over with Port going over in 9 of their last 10 at Etihad 4 of the last 5 head to head going over 200. But the Blues have only gone over 190 once this season.


Melbourne v Western Bulldogs – After the gift of 7 straight games at Etihad (let’s not mention free kicks!) the Dogs leave the comforts of the Dome. Dogs lost 7 of their 10 games away from Etihad last year including the last 4 in a row. Lean toward Dees with the start. Dees have covered 5 of this season.

 



Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 8

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 7

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 7

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 7

 

AFL Round 7 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Gold Coast-Melbourne over 188.5 $1.85 William Hill

Bet 1 unit North Melbourne -21.5 $1.92 Crownbet

Bet 2 units St Kilda-North Melbourne over 195.5 $1.88 Sportsbet

Port Adelaide- Brisbane – potential bet TBA via email and SMS

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Hawthorn, Collingwood, Geelong, Sydney, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, GWS, North Melbourne, Port Adelaide


Game Previews

 

Gold Coast v Melbourne

I do expect an improved performance from the Suns back at home this week after some home truths were told in the sheds include a few pointed words directed at G Ablett. Saad returns for the Gold Coast but they still have lots of holes defensively and in the midfield and I can’t see them stopping the Dees from scoring. With Lynch and Hogan in red hot form, there is a good chance we could see a shootout. Indeed, four of the Suns’ last five matches have yielded over 200 points, while three of the Dees last five have yielded over 200. The last clash head to head also yielded over 200 and weather  forecast  is favourable with a warm, dry day ensuring a fast track for the twilight start.

Bet 2 units Gold Coast-Melbourne over 188.5 $1.85 William Hill


St Kilda v North Melbourne

The Roos are flying high, unbeaten on top of the ladder and have the luxury of an nine day turnaround.  They have covered 23 of their last 32 with 7 days or more between games. Complacency is their only danger. St Kilda have performed admirably this season pinching wins from Collingwood and their bunny, Melbourne while pushing Hawthorn to three points – which doesn’t mean as much as it did at the time given the Hawks continued poor form. However, a closer look at the Saints formline reveals that when they have played quality sides  in form such as the Bulldogs and GWS, they have been outclassed by 57 and 47 points respectively and both matches were at their Etihad home. The market agrees and moved a 1-2 points towards North since Tuesday.

Bet 1 unit North Melbourne -21.5 $1.92 Crownbet

With the Roos off a nine day turnaround and Saints off an eight day turnaround, I’m also forecasting a shootout at Etihad. North yielded over 200 points in each of their first five matches before being suckered into an arm wrestle with the Bulldogs. The Saints have yielded over 200 points in four of their six games while four of the last five clashes head to head have yielded 198 or more.

Bet 2 units St Kilda-North Melbourne over 195.5 $1.88 Sportsbet


Port Adelaide v Brisbane

With Beams returning to strengthen an improving Lions offence, I will continue to look for opportunities to back the over in Lions matches. A young team with an aggressive attacking mindset couple with a thin backline is a recipe for shootouts! The Lions have yielded over 200 points in three games with 181 points being their lowest yield. They even managed to yield 191 on a wet track against the Swans last week. Will watch the Adelaide weather forecast closely, with a view to a potential overs bet if the rain eases.

Port Adelaide- Brisbane – potential bet TBA via email and SMS


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Carlton v Collingwood – The Blues are a good cover side in the daytime, covering 15 of their last 22 while the Pies are poor under the sun, covering just 4 of their last 14. However, the Pies have won 6 straight against the Blues and have the mental edge at the moment.


Geelong v West Coast – The Eagles have covered 20 of their last 28 and the markets has firmed a point or two towards them, however, they have lost five straight on the road and I want to see them  prove themselves away from Subiaco before betting them on the road.


Sydney v Adelaide – Swans have won five straight against the Dons and the only thing stopping them from covering the 70+ line will be potential heavy legs and a six day back up from a wet track clash against the Lions at the Gabba.


Western Bulldogs v Adelaide – We would all love to see a high scoring thriller like last year’s elimination finals clash and having gone over in 19 of their last 27 games, the Crows won’t stand in the way of a shootout. However, the Dogs have increased their defensive focus this season and lead the AFL in this category so I just can’t back the overs.


Fremantle v GWS – Giants continue to cover the line as favourites and have now covered 16 of 22 as favourite, but I can’t have them at Subiaco, when they are winless and they might be in for an emotional let down after the high of last week’s amazing demolition of the Hawks.


 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 7

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 6

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 6

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 6

 

AFL Round 6 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Adelaide-Fremantle over 187.5 $1.90 Luxbet  BB

Bet 1 unit Geelong-Gold Coast over 180.5 $1.91 Bet365

Potential Bet TBA via SMS and email – Saturday or Sunday – Brisbane v Sydney

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

North Melbourne, Melbourne, Adelaide, GWS, Richmond, Geelong, Sydney, Carlton, West Coast


Game Previews

Adelaide v Fremantle

The good ship Freo is on the rocks and taking water fast. Fyfe, Mundy and Sandilands are out with injury and they suffered the indignity of going down to Carlton in a painful to watch error-fest last round. In a fine day game at the Adelaide Oval, the awesome Crows forward line has a chance to rack up a cricket score. Adelaide have gone over the total match score line in all five games this season yielding total match scores of 221, 216, 220, 230 and 204 points. They have also gone over the total match score line in 10 of their last 12 day games. Freo’s once famous defence has already cracked big time on two occasions this season, and will be under the pump in a big way on Saturday.

Bet 2 units Adelaide-Fremantle over 187.5 $1.90 Luxbet


Geelong v Gold Coast

After a bright start to the season, the Suns have hit a rough patch, with the backline decimated by injury and suspension and some key outs in the midfield also. Nonetheless, they managed to put 81 points on the ladder leading North Melbourne last start, but leaked 119 points in the process. I see a similar type of game unfolding here, with the Cats getting their chance for an easy kill and their fortress. The last five matches between these two teams have yielded at least 194 points and four of the five Suns’ games have yielded 181 points or more so we want to be on the overs.

Bet 1 unit Geelong-Gold Coast over 180.5 $1.91 Bet365


Brisbane v Sydney

Was very keen to make Sydney my best bet of the week in a clash between  the Swans who are first in contested possessions and the Lions who are rock bottom in this key stat. For good measure, the Swans have won eight straight versus the Lions and covered 27 of their last 39 days games. This game also shapes as a good opportunity to bet the overs. Alas, the market has moved four points towards the Lions so far this week and I want to watch the market for another couple of days and see  if the forecast rain arrives before nominating a potential bet.

Potential Bet TBA via SMS and email – Saturday or Sunday – Brisbane v Sydney


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


North Melbourne v Western Bulldogs – Dogs have won 12 of their last 14 as 0.5-15pt underdogs but have a poor head to head record versus the Kangas losing 4 of their last five.


Melbourne v St Kilda – Demons are clearly the form team but this game is fraught with risk against a classic bogey team who have defeated Melbourne on 12 straight occasions. The Dees have also lost 22 of their last 23 at Etihad. Danger game!


GWS v Hawthorn – Hawks have won 17 of their last 25 as a 0.5-15pt favourite, but the market has moved a massive 7-11 points towards the Giants since Tuesday. Game also shapes as a good opportunity to bet the overs if the forecast rain stays away.


Richmond v Port Adelaide – Horrible betting game between two under-performers. Port have covered 19 of their last 27 at night and slight lean towards them covering the start. Danger game!


Carlton v Essendon – Dons have gone under the total match score line in 26 of their last 36 as a home dog and could do it again in forecast rain eventuates.


West Coast v Collingwood – Eagles have gone over total match score line in 32 of their last 45 day games but are up against a Collingwood outfit who have gone under in 17 of their last 21 interstate games.


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 6

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 5

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 5

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 5

 

AFL Round 5 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Hawthorn-Adelaide over 195.5 $1.91 Bet365

Bet 1 unit Fremantle-Carlton Under 180.5 $1.88 William Hill

Bet 2 units Melbourne-Richmond Under 181.5 $1.88 William Hill  BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Adelaide, Sydney, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, GWS, Fremantle, Melbourne, Collingwood


Game Previews

Hawthorn v Adelaide

The awesome Crows forward line is in red hot form and just keeps racking up cricket scores with the four Crows matches this year yielding 216, 220, 230 and 204 points. The Crows have now gone over the total match score line in 18 of their last 25 games. Hawthorn’s scoring has dropped from previous seasons but they remain a potent force and have gone over the total match score line in 7 of their last 10 night games.  Head to head, the last three clashes have yielded 196, 199 and 196. The market agrees with our assessment with several bookies increasing the line by 2 to 4 points since Tuesday.

Bet 1 unit Hawthorn-Adelaide over 195.5 $1.91 Bet365


Fremantle v Carlton

The bookies have responded to the decline of Freo’s once mighty defence by increasing their total match score lines in recent weeks. The line of 180.5 available on Wednesday and recommended to subscribers via SMS was quite high, particularly for two teams with impotent forward lines. Freo is averaging 74 points per game in attack this year while Carlton is averaging just 61 and it’s hard to see Freo firing on all cylinders with Sandilands and Mundy still sidelined. Further, the last two clashes between these teams have yielded 148 and 161 points with 10 of Freo’s last 15 twilight games going under the total match score line. The market agrees and in the last 36 hours has firmed a very significant 4-8 points towards the under with 176.5 currently the highest line available. The market move also reflects a developing rain band approaching Perth and should this wet weather eventuate, it will further increase the prospect of the match going under.

Bet 1 unit  Fremantle-Carlton under 180.5 $1.88 William Hill


Melbourne v Richmond

The Dees enter this match on a high while it’s desperation time for Richmond after another slow start to the season. The Dees classic 267 point shootout  with the Kangas is fresh in everyone’s minds but if we look beyond that game, we see that the Dees have kept the other games tighter with those three matches yielding 169, 147 and 158 points. Further, the last four clashes between these two outfits have yielded 134, 165, 178 and 179 points and the Tigers have gone under in 29 of their last 44 at the MCG.  It’s rare that we see a line over 180 for a night match at MCG for teams that are not known for their attacking prowess and accordingly, the under was recommended to our subscribers on Wednesday night. The market agrees with our assessment with most bookies winding the line down three to four points.

Bet 2 units Melbourne-Richmond under 181.5 $1.88 William Hill


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Sydney v West Coast – Eagles have been outstanding at covering the line of late, covering in 19 of their last 26 games BUT Swans are a superb day team, covering the line in 26 of their last 38 day matches. The Eagles have gone over the total match score line in 32 of their last 45 day games so if the forecast rain does not arrive, the overs would be a great bet if you can get in before the bookies raise the line.


Gold Coast v North Melbourne – The Suns are a classic bogey team for North with the Kangas losing three straight to the Gold Coast outfit.


Western Bulldogs v Brisbane – Bulldogs have gone under the total match score line in 9 of their last 13 night games but it’s hard to see this happening at Etihad against a developing Lions defence. The Lions are no slouch in attack however,  ranked sixth in AFL for scoring shots (albeit with a very poor conversion rate at present).


Port Adelaide v Geelong – Power have an excellent cover record at night covering 19 of their last 26 under lights while the Cats are poor when interstate, only covering 3 of their last 10 outside Victoria. However, the Power simply cannot be trusted at present.


St Kilda v GWS – Giants have covered the line in 15 of their last 21 as a favourite and have won their last two against the Saints. They are also maturing and are now less prone to following up a win with a surprise loss when starting favourites.


Collingwood v Essendon – The Pies woeful last start loss to Melbourne was no surprise to those who are aware of their poor recent day record. The Pies have now failed to cover the line in 3 of their last 12 day games. However, we haven’t seen enough of the new-look Essendon to understand what they can do. Danger match!


 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 5

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 4

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 4

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 4

 

AFL Round 4 Recommended Bet List

Bet 3 units West Coast-Richmond under 175.5  $1.90 TAB Sportsbet  BB

Bet 1 unit North Melbourne – Fremantle under 178.5  $1.93 Bet365

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

West Coast, Geelong, Hawthorn, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, GWS, Collingwood, North Melbourne


Game Previews

West Coast v Richmond

The Tigers appear to be replicating their slow start of last season, not helped by some key absences, particularly the loss of Maric. However, they do have a solid recent record against the Eagles losing by 20 at the G last year and winning at Domain Stadium in 2014 and 2013. I’m expecting an improved performance this week and plenty of desperation from Hardwick’s men, but expect the Eagles to have a little too much polish when it matters.

While we’ve seen plenty of free flowing and high scoring footy this year, I’m expecting a bit of an arm wrestle in this match with both teams coming off a six day turnaround. Richmond in particular won’t want to get caught up in a run and gun shootout. In fact, they have gone under the total match score in 15 of their last 20 games with a six day turnaround. They have also gone under the total match score in 18 of their last 25 interstate games dating back to 2012. The Eagles are a gun attacking side in the day, but  cool off a bit at night, having gone under in 17 of their last 24 night games. Perhaps most importantly, the last three clashes have yielded 160, 101 and 165 points, well under the line set for this match.

Bet 3 units West Coast-Richmond under 175.5  $1.90 TAB Sportsbet


North Melbourne v Fremantle

More woe awaits the Dockers against the red hot Kangas who for the second week in a row have been the subject of a big betting move with the line moving 11-12 points towards the Kangas since Tuesday.

After tweaking their game plan in the off seaon, the Dockers reverted to type last week and we saw a tight Western Derby yield just 151 points.. I expect the Dockers to revert to what they know best this weekend and that will involve keeping the game tight and not allowing the Kangas to get away from them. History bears this out with the last four head to head clashes yielding 167, 157, 135 and 96 points.

Bet 1 unit North Melbourne – Fremantle under 178.5  $1.93 Bet365


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Essendon V Geelong – Dons have gone under the total match score line in 25 of their last 34 games as a home state underdog but we still need to see more of this new team before considering them as a betting option. Danger game!


Hawthorn v St Kilda – Hawks have covered the line in 14 of their last 19 day matches and thrashed the Saints by 63, 140 and 46 in the last three head to head clashes.


Brisbane v Gold Coast – The Lions have only covered the line in only 8 of their last 25 games and have failed to cover the line in each of their three matches this season. Yet, the line has moved 4-5 points towards the Lions since Tuesday? Danger game!


Carlton v Western Bulldogs – Blues are a terrible night team only covering the line in 3 of their last 13 night games. Nevertheless, they have a solid recent record against the Dogs, winning two of the last five clashes. Their three losses were by 11, 28 and 18 points.


Adelaide v Sydney – Can the Crows powerful forward line put up another big score and go over the total match score line again? The Crows have gone over in 17 of their last 24 and their three 2016 matches have gone over, yielding 220, 230 and 204 points. This will be their first night game outdoors, however.


GWS v Port Adelaide – The Giants have a great record as favourites, covering 14 of their last 20 as favourites. However, Port has an equally good record as underdogs, covering 19 of their last 28. Best to leave this game alone.


Collingwood v Melbourne – The Pies were very ordinary last week and are a poor day team, covering only 3 of their last 11 day games across 2015-16. This has not stopped punters jumping out of the trees to back the Pies with the line moving up to 7 points towards the Pies since Tuesday. Danger game!



Twitter

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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 4

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

 

AFL Tips 62 Units Profit for AFL Season Pass Members

AFL Tips 62 Units Profit for AFL Season Pass Members

Professional Previews and Recommended Betting for AFL


AFL Tips – A Quality Offering

At Reading The Play we don’t just provide a bet list, we also offer individual game previews behind any betting plays, key information, analysis and our experts “read” on what is likely to unfold – an informed opinion. Our subscribers enjoy pre game preview thoughts and rational that not only provides them with a potential betting play but a broader “feel” and connection to each game.

If you like your AFL with some passion, let alone having a bet interest then you are at the right place.


AFL – AFL Statsman

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

AFL Tips 2015 Results File > RTP_AFL_Results_POT_2015

2015 results – 35/53, Strike Rate 66.0%, Profit +38.97 units

2014 results – 41/70, Strike Rate 59.7%, Profit +23.07 units

Subscription Options

We offer a variety of subscription options for our NRL and AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips, from single week purchase through to individual season pass or combined options.

NRL and AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

NRL + AFL Pricing

 

 

 

Season Pass subscriptions cover everything every week of the season – from Game 1 right through to Grand Final. For NRL followers this also includes all State Of Origin and Test matches. You may subscribe for a Season Pass at any time (now onwards) and your subscription will cover the lot from that date through to season end.


Reading The Play – were we don’t just provide a bet list, we also offer individual game previews behind any betting plays, key information, analysis and our experts “read” on what is likely to unfold – an informed opinion. Our subscribers enjoy pre game preview thoughts and rational that not only provides them with a potential betting play but a broader “feel” and connection to each game.

If you like your NRL or AFL with some passion, let alone having a bet interest then you are at the right place.


 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 3

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 3

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 3

 

AFL Round 3 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit – North Melbourne-Melbourne Over 164.5  $1.90 TopSport

Bet 2 units Brisbane +54.5  $1.92 Sportsbet  BB

Bet 1 unit Geelong-Brisbane Over 190.5  $1.90 TAB Sportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Port Adelaide, Collingwood, Adelaide, Sydney, Gold Coast, West Coast, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Geelong


Game Previews

North Melbourne v Melbourne

The Kangas have made a nice start to the season and look poised to make it 3-0 against the Dees. The Kangas have covered the line in 12 of their last 16 day games while Melbourne have only covered the line in 7 of their last 23 interstate games. However, the line is approaching five goal territory and the Kangaroos have not been winning their games by big enough margins to give me confidence they can cover a five goal line. At the same time, Melbourne have not been easy beats of late and have only lost by more than five goals once in their last five starts.

A total match score play is the best option here with the line set for Melbourne’s low scoring history in recent seasons and the chance of a light shower. However, the last five head to head clashes have all gone over 173 points with three of them going over 200 points.  The market agrees with the line moving four points towards the over since Tuesday.

Bet 1 unit – North Melbourne-Melbourne Over 164.5  $1.90 TopSport


Geelong v Brisbane

Am keen to back the Lions with the big start as the Cats have only covered the line in 7 of their last 25 matches when favoured by 30.5 points or more. It took a classy West Coast outfit to beat the Lions by 60 in Round 1 and Geelong are no West Coast…yet. I also liked the Lions effort against the Kangas last week and only poor goal kicking prevented the margin from being in the teens. The Lions have a helpful eight days between games and I expect them to give a good account of themselves. There has been support for the Lions in the last 24 hours with the line moving from 55.5 down to 54.5

Bet 2 units Brisbane +54.5 $1.92 Sportsbet

I also expect this match to be a high scoring affair with the Lions last four games yielding over 196 points and three of the last five head to head clashes going over 200 points. There is a risk of a light shower so we’ll just bet the one unit.

Bet 1 unit Geelong-Brisbane over 190.5 $1.90 TAB Sportsbet


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Port Adelaide v Essendon – Power have covered the line in 18 of their last 25 games at night BUT the Dons have also covered the line well in night games, covering in 21 of their last 31 night games. We’ll continue to stay clear of Essendon until we understand what they have to offer. Danger game!


St Kilda v Collingwood – Pies have gone over the total match score line in 8 of their last 10 day games and the last two clashes between these sides have yielded 206 and 194 points.


Richmond v Adelaide – The Crows are currently the leagues predominant ‘overs’ team going over the total match score line in 16 of their last 23 games and 9 of their last 11 day games. However, they are up against a dominant ‘unders’ team in the Tigers and the last two clashes have yielded just 140 and 148 points.


Gold Coast v Carlton – The Blues have proven to be a bogey sides for the Suns in recent years winning the last three clashes by 34, 39 and 43 points BUT are a terrible night team , failing to cover the line in 9 of their last 12 night games.


West Coast v Fremantle – Eagles have covered the line in 17 of their last 24 games but have Freo may still hold a mental edge having won 6 of the last 8 Western Derbies.


North Melbourne v Melbourne -The Kangas have made a nice start to the season and look poised to make it 3-0 against the Dees. The Kangas have covered the line in 12 of their last 16 day games while Melbourne have only covered the line in 7 of their last 23 interstate games. However, the line is approaching five goal territory and the Kangaroos have not been winning their games by big enough margins to give me confidence they can cover a five goal line. At the same time, Melbourne have not been easy beats of late and have only lost by more than five goals once in their last five starts.


Western Bulldogs v Hawthorn – Hawks are a great day team covering the line in 13 of their last 18 day matches BUT the Dogs have covered the line in 11 of their last 13 games as a 0.5-15 point underdog. Danger game!



Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 3

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 2

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 2

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 2

 

AFL Round 2 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Adelaide-Port Adelaide over 200.5  $1.91 Bet365  BB

Bet 1 unit North Melbourne -24.5  $1.91 William Hill

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Richmond, Adelaide, Melbourne, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Western Bulldogs, Geelong, West Coast, Sydney


Game Previews

Adelaide v Port Adelaide

I like teams returning from an interstate trip with a seven day turnaround to prepare for a home game and lean towards the Crows winning and covering the line, particularly as they come out of a stronger form game that the Power. I also note Port were beaten by the Saints in disposals and marks.

Recent Showdowns have been free flowing and high scoring affairs and I don’t see this changing on Saturday. The Crows attacking game has picked up where they left off last year and their last five games dating back to last season have yielded 204, 196, 211, 199 and 195 points. Adelaide have also gone over the total match score line in 15 of their last 23 regular season games and have also gone over in 16 of their last 21 day games. Port look to have rediscovered their running game of 2014 in piling up 133 points against the Saints and have gone over in 4 of their last 5 day games. The last five Showdowns have also yielded 229, 206, 175, 200 and 210 points. The midday start and forecast 24 degrees will also be conducive to high scoring. Accordingly, the market has made one of the biggest moves towards the over in recent seasons, moving from 192.5 points on Tuesday afternoon to 200.5 and above.

Bet 2 units – Adelaide-Port Adelaide over 200.5  $1.91 Bet365

 


Brisbane v North Melbourne

The Kangas travel interstate off a strong form game against the Crows while the Lions make the long trip home from Perth and have to contend with a six day turnaround. The Kangas have had the wood on the Lions in recent years winning three of the last four clashes by margins of 72, 82 and 87 points and won well at the Gabba last year. The only exception was a 4 point Gabba loss in 2014 when the Lions “did it for Browny” a few days after the champion’s retirement. The Kangas have covered the line in 11 of their last 15 day games and have also covered the line in 21 of their last 30 games with seven or more days between games.

Coach Leppa has indicated the Lions will take the game on in 2016 with an attacking mindset. This approach led to the Lions putting an admirable 102 points on the Eagles on Sunday and will bear fruit in the long term. However, the approach does leave them highly vulnerable to counter attacks with the Eagles scoring approximately 10 goals in or near the goal square unopposed or with little pressure. This will take time to fix. With Beams and Robinson out for the Lions, I expect the Kangas to win comfortably and cover. The market agrees with the line moving from 22.5 on Tuesday afternoon out to 24.5.

Bet 1 unit – North Melbourne -24.5  $1.91 William Hill

 


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Collingwood v Richmond – Pies have gone under the total match score line in 33 of their last 46 night games but 7 of 9 matches in week 1 went over thanks to the new interchange rules and new coaching tactics. The impact of the changes has been greater than expected and under bets need to be approached with great caution in the meantime.


Essendon v Melbourne – Four of the last five clashes between these sides have gone under 165 total match points BUT Essendon games can’t be touched until we understand what they have to offer. Danger game!


Fremantle v Gold Coast – Dockers have only covered 5 of their last 20 games with a six day turnaround BUT have never lost to the Suns.


St Kilda v Western Bulldogs – Bulldogs won the disposals 498-340 and I50’s 57-30 in Round 1. Those are unbeatable numbers and anything close to a repeat will see them rain on Riewoldt’s 300th parade.


GWS v Geelong – Giants have gone under the total match score line 11 times in their last 15 day games.


Hawthorn v West Coast – Hawks have covered the line in 12 of their last 17 day games BUT West Coast has covered the line in 17 of their last 23 games. Line has moved 5-7 points towards West Coast since Tuesday afternoon.


Carlton v Sydney – Blues have gone over the total match score line in 23 of their last 34 games as a home state dog and the total match line has moved from 178.5 on Tuesday afternoon to 180.5.



Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 2

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 1

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 1

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 1

 

AFL Round 1 Recommended Bet List

Bet 3 units Sydney-Collingwood Under 177.5  $1.90 Luxbet  BB

Bet 1 unit Hawthorn -6.5  $1.92 SportsBet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Richmond, GWS, Gold Coast, Sydney, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, West Coast, Hawthorn


Game Previews

 

Sydney v Collingwood

Swans will be advantaged by the rescheduling of this game from ANZ Stadium to their SCG home along with the return of Buddy Franklin. They are notorious slow starters to the season and with the loss of some key players, I expect them to be happy to roll up their sleeves for an arm wrestle and try and grind out a win rather than playing pretty footy. Collingwood looked sharp in playing direct footy in the pre-season but we all know that counts for nought when the ball is bounced for Round 1.

The Pies have a phenomenal under record when interstate going under the total match score line in 17 of their last 20 interstate games and in 33 of their last 45 night games. Further, the last five clashes between these two teams have yielded total match scores of 163, 159, 171, 157 and 166 points, all under the line offered for this match. Showers are forecast the day before the match and there is currently a 60% chance of a light shower on match day. If this eventuates, it will further increase the chances of going under the total match score line.

The reduction of interchanges from 120 to 90 is sure to be a big talking point in the opening weeks and could potentially increase scoring, particularly with players yet to reach peak fitness. I have considered the impact of this change and judged that the line is still sufficiently high enough for us to bet. The market agrees with the line moving down 3-4 points with some bookies since our SMS on Tuesday that recommended subscribers bet under the 177.5 line. This line is still available with SportsBet for latecomers.

Bet 3 units Sydney-Collingwood under 177.5 $1.90 Luxbet


Geelong v Hawthorn

Since lifting the Kennett Curse, the Hawks have dominated the Cats winning their last four contests by 36, 61, 36 and 23 points. I believe the market appears to be under-estimating the Hawks on the basis of them missing some key personnel, while over-estimating the Cats based on the hype of Dangerfield’s arrival and the likely improvement to come.  However, the facts are that Hawthorn are still the reigning premiers and are playing at home against a Cats outfit that missed the eight last year. Hawthorn are also proven at covering the spread in big games, covering 16 of their last 23 matches when they started a 0.5-15.5 point favourite.

Bet 1 unit Hawthorn -6.5  $1.92 SportsBet


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Richmond v Carlton – Due to Richmond outs the Tigers have drifted 4-6 points in some markets since Monday afternoon and are no good things to cover the ATS line. There is nothing to like about Carlton either – they  were a terrible 2-9 ATS in night games last season and have only covered 12 of 36 night games across 2013-15. Danger match!


Melbourne v GWS –  GWS has covered the line in 14 of 19 games as a favourite in their history but we have to respect Paul Roos getting the Demons up for a R1 upset over Suns in similar circumstances last season.


Gold Coast v Essendon – The last five matches between these two clubs have yielded 192, 197, 187, 193 and 255 points, well over the total match score line posted and I would normally recommend a 2-3 unit bet on the overs. Also, Essendon have a good cover record at night covering the line in 21 of their last 31 night games. However, due to their massive list turnover, we will not be touching any Essendon games for at least five rounds until we see and understand what the Dons have to offer. Danger match!


North Melbourne v Adelaide – Ripper game! Kangas have covered 20 of their last 29 matches with seven or more days to prepare but have lost four of their last five versus the Crows. They have also lost six straight season openers under Brad Scott. Danger match!


Western Bulldogs v Fremantle – Another ripper! Freo have won four straight versus the Dogs and covered the line in 30 of their last 45 matches with a seven day or more prep.


Port Adelaide v St Kilda – Saints have failed to cover the line in 18 of their last 25 matches away from the MCG and Etihad.


West Coast v Brisbane – Eagles covered the line in 16 of 22 matches last season as they rose up the pecking order but I expect that to level out this season. Eagles have also covered the line in 10 of their last 14 when favoured by 30.5 points or more.


 

 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 1

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.