AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 17

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 17

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 17

 

Bet 1 unit Collingwood-North Melbourne under 180.5 $1.90 Luxbet

Bet 2 units West Coast-Melbourne  under 186.5 $1.91 Bet365 BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Collingwood, Sydney, Gold Coast, West Coast, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, Essendon, Hawthorn, GWS


Game Previews

 

Collingwood v North Melbourne

High stakes game with North desperate to arrest their slide and the Pies still a mathematical chance of scraping into the eight. Not keen to play the line with two last start losers involved but note the market has moved 4-5 points towards the Pies since Tuesday morning. I think there is a good chance an arm wrestle could eventuate while the loss of Waite will reduce North’s chance of kicking a big score. North have gone under the total match score line in 10 of their last 11 games. Collingwood have gone under the total match score line in 36 of their last 50 night games and in six of their last eight games this season. I also note it is the Pies first game at Etihad this season and they may take a while to find their groove at this ground. The market agrees and has moved two points towards the under since Tuesday morning

Bet 1 unit Collingwood-North Melbourne under 180.5 $1.90 TAB Sportsbet


West Coast v Melbourne

This match represents another opportunity to the Eagles to cement their bully boy status at home. The bookies have the line about right and I note it has firmed 1-2 points towards Melbourne this week. I am leaning towards this match going under. The Eagles may have won four in a row but to my eye, their attack has not been firing on all cylinders, even before the Carlton match with big scores against the Lions and Dons achieved with the help of a 67% conversion rate. Melbourne have a woeful record at Domain Stadium recording 54, 53, 40, 40 and 58 points in their last five visits and although an improved outfit, it’s a big mental hurdle. Furthermore, eight of Melbourne’s last nine matches at Domain have yielded under 186.5 points. The Eagles have gone under in 12 of 16 games this season and four of Melbourne’s last five  games have gone under 186.5 points. The last three head to head clashes have yielded 174, 172 and 153 points. Light showers are forecast throughout the day and if there is any substance to them, it will further enhance the prospect of the match going under.

Bet 2 units West Coast-Melbourne  under 186.5 $1.91 Bet365 BB


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Sydney v Carlton – Both sides play their best football in the day, with the Blues covering in 20 of their last 29 day games and the Swans covering in 28 of their last 41 day games. Danger game!


Gold Coast v Fremantle – Freo have gone under in 11 of 16 games this season however the Suns have gone over in 30 of their last 44 day games. Slightest of leans to the under with the Suns lacking midfield firepower.


Western Bulldogs v St Kilda – Dogs have yielded under 170.5 in their last four matches and the Saints have yielded over 170.5 in their last five matches. Slightest of leans towards the under with the Dogs  usually controlling the tempo well at Etihad.


Geelong v Adelaide – Cats have been a big under side this season going under in 11 of their 16 games. Crows have gone over in 12 of their last 16 interstate trips but more recently they have gone under in five of their last seven games this season with low yields in their last two games. Lean to the under.


Essendon v Brisbane – Lions have only covered the line in 11 of their last 38 games but  I wouldn’t touch this game with stolen money. Slight lean to the over with Lions going over in 12 of 16 games this season and Essendon yielding at least 182 points in each of their last five games.


Hawthorn v Richmond – Tigers have beaten the Hawks in three of the last five clashes but with Hardwick playing rookies, there won’t be an upset here. Strong lean to the Hawks but their cover record is average this year.


Port Adelaide v GWS – Lean towards Giants on the back of their comfortable victory over Power earlier this year but they are yet to win from three appearance at the Adelaide Oval.


 


Twitter

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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 17

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 16

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 16

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 16

 

Bet 3 units Adelaide-Collingwood under 188.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB

Bet 2 units St Kilda-Melbourne under 189.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Sydney, Geelong, Richmond, North Melbourne, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide, West Coast, St Kilda, GWS


Game Previews

 

Adelaide v Collingwood

Collingwood have a strong long term under record going under in 18 of their last 24 interstate and in 35 of their last 49 at night. While Adelaide have been a potent scoring team this season, only one of their last five matches have yielded over the 188.5 line available. Furthermore, the last three head to head clashes have yielded 153, 180 and 131 points. Neither team has had an ideal lead up to this match with Adelaide off a six day back up and Collingwood on a second consecutive interstate trip will slightly reduce the probability of a run and gun shootout.

Bet 3 units Adelaide-Collingwood under 188.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB


St Kilda v Melbourne

Saints have won 13 straight against Melbourne who have lost 23 of their last 24 at Etihad. Demons return from a long interstate trip while the Saints back up from their last start win at the same venue. Strong lean towards the Saints covering however my main interest is in the under. Melbourne return from a low scoring Darwin match and four of their last five matches have yielded under the line set for this match. Likewise, four of the last five head to head clashes have gone under the line set for this match.

Bet 2 units St Kilda-Melbourne under 189.5 $1.90 Sportsbet


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Sydney v Hawthorn – Lean towards a tight game and the under here with the Swans going under in 10 of 15 matches this year and 17 of their past 34 night matches. Two of the last three head to head clashes have also gone under. The market has moved 5-6 points towards the under since Tuesday morning.


Fremantle v Geelong – Freo have only covered 6 of their last 23 off a six day break. Lean towards the Cats.


Richmond v Essendon – The Dons have gone under the total match score line in 23 of their last 34 at the MCG and in 17 of their last 25 off a six day break. Further, the last five clashes head to head have gone under. However, this Dons outfit has been leaking points in the last month with their last four games yielding 207, 182, 207 and 194 points.


North Melbourne v Port Adelaide  – Port have gone over in 10 of their last 11 at Etihad. However, this is offset by the Kangas going under in 9 of their last 10 games.


Western Bulldogs v Gold Coast – Dogs have won this regular Cairns clash on each of the last two occasions. Dogs have improved when travelling interstate this year, winning their last two trips to Sydney and Port Adelaide but the line is about right.


Carlton v West Coast – Blues have covered the line in 19 of their last 28 day games. However this is offset by the Eagles covering in 15 of their last 20 as a 30.5+ favourite. Lean towards the Eagles nonetheless as the Blues look like going into freefall.


Brisbane v GWS – The Lions have gone over in a league high 11 of 15 games this season and can rack points at the Gabba while GWS have the second best scoring average in the league. However, the forecast at present is for possible rain. We will be monitoring the forecast in the meantime.


 

 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 16

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 15

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 15

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 23

 

Bet 2 units West Coast-North Melbourne under 178.5 $1.91 Bet365

Bet 2 units St Kilda -40.5 $1.92 Luxbet BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Port Adelaide, Sydney, GWS, Gold Coast, Western Bulldogs, Melbourne, Adelaide, West Coast, St Kilda


Game Previews

 

West Coast v North Melbourne

High stakes clash will major ramifications for ladder positions that screams potential arm wrestle despite the daytime scheduling. Both teams have been dominant under sides this season with the Eagles going under in 10 of 14 games and the Kangas going under in 8 of 14 games including 8 of the last 9 games. The last three head to head clashes have yielded 135, 160 and 126 points. Last years preliminary final was marred by poor goal kicking hence the yield of just 135 points but even if both teams kicked 50%, the match would still have only yielded 175 points. Given the stakes, I anticipate a similar encounter here. Rain is forecast in the three days leading up to the match with clearing thunderstorms forecast for Sunday. Should we have a wet track, it will further enhance the probability of the match going under.

Bet 2 units West Coast-North Melbourne under 178.5 $1.91 Bet365


St Kilda v Essendon

I’m very keen to take on Essendon and Brisbane over the last eight weeks when the opportunity presents itself. Essendon were competitive for three quarters last week before falling away badly late and they now lose Zaharakis. It would not surprise to see their season really freefall from here on. They also have a shocking record under the roof, losing ten straight and failing to cover the line in 22 of their last 33 at Etihad. St Kilda were again dismal interstate last week, but they have proven they can bounce back when at home. They have won four straight at Etihad defeating the Cats by 3, Blues by 32, Freo by 34 and Bombers by 46. For good measure, the Saints also beat the Bombers by 110 in Round 14 last year. The market agrees and has moved at least two points towards St Kilda since Tuesday morning.

Bet 2 units St Kilda -40.5 $1.92 Luxbet BB


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Port Adelaide v Hawthorn – Port have won three of their last four against the Hawks and have covered the line in 21 of their last 29 night games. Market has moved as much as 6 points towards Power since Tuesday morning.


Geelong v Sydney – Swans have not lost two in a row all season, recording convincing wins after their previous three losses.


GWS v Collingwood – Giants have covered the line in 20 of their last 28 as favourite while Pies are inferior in the day, covering only 5 of their last 19 under the sun. However, GWS is yet to beat the Pies.


Gold Coast v Brisbane – The Lions have failed to cover the line in 26 of their last 36 games however they lifted for the Sunshine Stoush earlier this year and with two weeks prep, I expect them to lift again for this game against little brother and then potentially go into freefall for the rest of the season. Danger game!


Western Bulldogs v Richmond – Dog have gone under in 11 of their last 17 night games but the market appears to be right for this one.


Melbourne v Fremantle – Demons have only covered the line in 9 of their last 27 interstate trips while Freo have covered in 40 of their last 64 games with a seven day or more break. Nonetheless I have a slight lean to Dees. Not keen to bet at a rarely used neutral venue.


Carlton v Adelaide – Blues have covered the line in 19 of 27 day games and Crows have gone over the total match score line in 20 of their last 26 day games.


 

 

 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 15

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 14

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 14

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 14

 

Bet 3 units West Coast-Essendon under 186.5 $1.88 Sportsbet BB

Bet 2 units Sydney-Western Bulldogs under 172.5 $1.88 Sportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

West Coast, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, Sydney, Collingwood, Adelaide


Game Previews

With the second half of this split round there are thin pickings, but I do like this game / bet.

 

West Coast v Essendon

The struggling Bombers travel west after a much needed bye why the Eagles will be looking to keep their faint top four hopes alive. It is well documented that the Eagles have been flat track bullies at home and I expect that to continue, but am not keen to play a line in the 70’s. However, I do think the line has been set quite high for a mid-winter night game. Both teams have long term under records at night with the Eagles going 17-8 under at night across the last five seasons while the Dons have gone under in 24 of their last 34 night matches. This season, the Eagles have gone under in 9 out of 13 games and the Dons have gone under in 7 out of 13 games. Furthermore, the last two head to head clashes yielded 142 and 151 points. I expect there is a good chance that we will see a similar score line to the Eagles recent home victories over the Suns (132-55) and the Saints (132-29). And it wouldn’t surprise me if Worsfold has primed his team for a bold showing against his former club. The market agrees and has firmed 4-6 points towards the under since Tuesday morning.

Bet 3 units West Coast-Essendon under 186.5 $1.88 Sportsbet BB


Sydney v Western Bulldogs

Great clash of the AFL’s top two defensive sides, with both coming into this clash fresh off a bye. The match will start at twilight but with the early sunset it will be night time by the time we get to the second quarter. I expect the match will be fiercely fought at ground level and there is a good change that it will subsequently develop into an arm wrestle.  The Swans are allowing just 69 points per game while the Dogs defence has restricted the opposition to a meager 74 points per game. Furthermore, the Swans have also gone under in five consecutive matches albeit with a couple of wet weather games thrown in while the Dogs have gone under in 8 of 13 matches this season including 4 of their last 5. The market agrees and has firmed 1-3 points towards the under since Tuesday morning.

Bet 2 units Sydney-Western Bulldogs under 172.5 $1.88 Sportsbet


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Port Adelaide v Richmond – Power have covered the line in 20 of their last 28 night games but have lost 3 of their last 5 against the Tigers. Lean to the Power coming off a bye with Tigers off a six day break.


Gold Coast v St Kilda – Gold Coast have lost 10 straight but are getting closer to a win after improved recent performances. Saints beat Geelong last start but have failed to cover the line in 8 of their last 29 matches away from the MCG and Etihad. Danger game!


Carlton v Collingwood – Carlton won the day clash earlier this season but now the Pies are in their preferred night slot while the Blues have only covered the line in 4 of their last 15 night matches.


Melbourne v Adelaide – Crows have gone over the line in 19 of their last 26 interstate games and 11 of their last 14 day games. However, the last three head to head clashes have yielded 135, 137 and 172 points and neither side has yielded more than 181 points in any of their last three games.


 

 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 14

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 13 Week 2

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 13

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 13

 

AFL Round 13 Week 2 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Richmond-Brisbane over 192.5 $1.91 Bet365 BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Adelaide, Collingwood, Richmond, GWS, Geelong, Hawthorn


Game Previews

With the second half of this split round there are thin pickings, but I do like this game / bet.

Richmond v Brisbane

The  Lions limp into Melbourne on a 12 match losing streak and having failed to cover the line in 10 of their last 25 matches. They lose Zorko for personal reasons and the bye can’t come soon enough.  However, Richmond have lost their last two matches off the bye – both of them at home so we’ll refrain from jumping on the Tigers at the line. However, the total match score represents a betting opportunity. Brisbane have gone over the line in 10 of their 13 matches this season and Richmond have gone over in 7 out of 12 matches while the last head to head clash yielded 195 points. Light showers forecast for today are expected to clear overnight.

Bet 2 units Richmond-Brisbane over 192.5 $1.91 Bet365 BB


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Collingwood v Fremantle – Pies have gone under in 34 of their last 48 games at night while Freo have gone under in 23 of their last 29 night games. However, wet weather and wise bookies have foiled our hopes of getting on this.


GWS v Carlton – Giants have covered 19 of their last 27 as a favourite but failed to cover away to lowly Essendon last start. I’m concerned this young team is looking ahead to the bye and rate this game high risk. Danger game!


St Kilda v Geelong – Cats have failed to cover a 30.5 plus line in 21 of the last 30 such instances. At their home track, the Saints will be in this for some time.


Hawthorn v Gold Coast – Suns have gone over the total match score line in 30 of their last 43 day games and 9 of their 12 matches this season. However, both the Suns and Hawks attacks have cooled a little in recent weeks.


 

 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 13

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 12

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 12

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 12

 

AFL Round 12 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 1 unit – North Melbourne +4.5 $1.91 William Hill

Bet 2 units West Coast-Adelaide over 190.5 $1.90 TAB Sportsbet BB

Bet 2 units Carlton -8.5 $1.92 Luxbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs, Fremantle, North Melbourne, West Coast, Carlton, Richmond, Sydney, Melbourne


Game Previews

Geelong v North Melbourne

Another great match up between the Scott brothers awaits with the Kangas firming slightly since the Hawkins suspension. Hawkins will be a crucial out given that the Kangas formidable defence is only allowing 79 points per game this season and has not allowed 100 points in their last 7 games. North have won six straight at Etihad and three straight against Geelong. While boasting a handsome long term record under the roof, the Cats have failed to win their last three trips to Etihad. North have the luxury of an eight day turnaround and have covered 26 of their last 36 with a turnaround of seven days or more. They have also covered 19 of their last 26 as a home state dog.

Bet 1 unit – North Melbourne +4.5 $1.91 William Hill


West Coast v Adelaide

Adelaide will try and establish their top four credentials when they bring their high octane attack to Subiaco where the Eagles will host a top eight side for the first time this season. The Crows have gone over in 7 out of 11 games and the last three head to head clashes with the Eagles have gone over. The Eagles have been dominant at home this season racking up scores of 132, 124, 125, 92 and 166 in their five home outings. While only two of these five Eagles home matches have gone over the total match score line, this is more a reflection of the impotence of the opposition in those five clashes. I expect Adelaide to bring considerably more scoring prowess than Gold Coast, Collingwood, St Kilda, Fremantle and Brisbane brought to Subiaco. The market agrees and has moved one point towards the over since Monday.

Bet 2 units West Coast-Adelaide over 190.5 $1.90 TAB Sportsbet BB


St Kilda v Carlton

The Blues have won four straight versus the Saints and play in their preferred day time slot where they have covered 19 of the last 26. They have the advantage of an 8 day turnaround while the Saints have a 6 day turnaround from a road trip to Adelaide. Despite injuries to several key Saints, the market firmed five points in the Saints favour from Monday to Thursday. However, the market now agrees with our assessment and has  since firmed 5-7 points in favour of the Blues, representing an overall move of 1-2 points towards the Blue since Monday. The only danger I see is the Blues looking ahead to the bye and a week off.

Bet 2 units Carlton -8.5 $1.92 Luxbet


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


 

Essendon v Hawthorn – Dons have only covered 10 of their last 31 at Etihad but Hawks have only covered 3 of 11 games this season. Playing the line is a toss of the coin job. Danger game!


Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs – Port have gone over the total match score line in 9 of their last 10 day games.


Brisbane v Fremantle – The struggling Lions are 10-23 at the spread across 2015-16 and have lost 8 straight against Freo. However, we need to see more from Freo before they are a betting proposition – a home win against Essendon is hardly a ringing endorsement.


St Kilda v Carlton – The Blues have won four straight versus the Saints and play in their preferred day time slot where they have covered 19 of the last 26. They have the advantage of an 8 day turnaround while the Saints have a 6 day turnaround from a distant road trip to Perth. However, there has been a five point move towards the Saints in several markets overnight.


Richmond v Gold Coast – Suns have gone over in 8 of 11 this season and in 29 of their last 42 day games. However, this is offset by Richmond yielding under 190 points in their last three games and four of the last five head to head clashes going under.


GWS v Sydney – Great clash – Lean towards the Swans covering against little brother. Also lean towards the under with three of the last five head to head clashes going under the total match score line set for this game.


Melbourne v Collingwood – Lean towards Melbourne covering against the Pies as they did earlier this season. The Pies have lost their last two against Paul Roos men and play in their detested day timeslot where they have failed to cover 13 of their last 18.


 

 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 12

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 11

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 11

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 11

 

AFL Round 11 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 1 unit North Melbourne-Richmond under 179.5 $1.91 Bet365

Bet 2 units – Carlton -22.5 $1.92 CrownBet

Bet 2 units Fremantle-Essendon under 161.5 $1.91 Bet365  BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Carlton, Geelong, Sydney, Fremantle, Port Adelaide, Western Bulldogs, Adelaide


Game Previews

North Melbourne v Richmond

Grudge match with bad blood between these two sides after the Kangas smartly rested players in a loss to the Tigers in the final round last year only to turn the tables in the Elimination Final and knock Richmond out. I expect this game to be decided in the trenches and it could develop into an arm wrestle. After starting the season by going over in five consecutive games, the Kangas have now gone under in five consecutive games. The Tigers while now longer the prolific under team they were in 2015 and 2015 have still gone under in 19 of their last 27 matches with a six day break. The market agrees and has firmed five points towards the under since Monday.

Bet 1 unit North Melbourne-Richmond under 179.5 $1.91 Bet365


Carlton v Brisbane

The Lions put in an encouraging three quarter performance at the Gabba last weekend against a Hawthorn outfit going through the motions but still failed to cover a 44.5 point start after fading late. They have now failed to cover in 22 of their last 32 starts and travel south to face a resurgent Blues outfit playing in their preferred day timeslot where they have covered 18 of their last 25. The Lions have lost their five road matches by 77, 53, 69, 64 and 63 points this season and while I expect them to be plucky again, Carlton’s recent form is far superior and they should kick clear in the second half.

Bet 2 units – Carlton -22.5 $1.92 CrownBet


Fremantle v Essendon

I’m expecting a dour clash between two battling outfits and lean towards Freo getting off the mark. However, my interest lies in the under play with both sides going under in 7 of 10 games this season. The last three head to head clashes have yielded 132, 173 and 140 points and that was with more potent line ups that will take the field at Domain Stadium for this match. The market agrees and has moved 5 points towards the under since Monday.

Bet 2 units Fremantle-Essendon under 161.5 $1.91 Bet365  BB


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Hawthorn v Melbourne – The Hawks form and stats have dipped despite their solid overall W-L record and ladder position. They have only covered 4 of 11 games this season and are best left alone until we see some evidence of their best form.


Geelong v GWS –  Back to back road games for GWS who have only won 5 of their last 16 road games. Market has moved 6-7 points towards Geelong since Monday but i’m happy to stay out of a game between two last start losers. Danger game!


Gold Coast v Sydney – Monsoonal conditions are forecast for South East Queensland on Saturday with 30-80mm currently forecast for the Gold Coast from noon. However, up to 200m is possible in some parts for the coast. The total match score line has dropped from 154.5 on Monday to 130.5 today! Swans will likely slog their way to a win but this game is definitely not a betting proposition. Danger game!


Collingwood v Port Adelaide – The Pies continue to struggle in daylight and have now only covered 5 of their last 17 day matches. I lean towards the Power who have firmed from +6.5 dogs on Monday to 2.5 point favourites today.


Western Bulldogs v West Coast – Eagles have gone under in 7 of their 10 games this season and that trend is likely to continue against a strong defensive team in the Bulldogs who are back on their home track.


Adelaide v St Kilda – Saints have only covered 8 of their last 28 away from the MCG and Etihad and were obliterated by 103 points on their trip to Perth three weeks ago. Lean towards the Crows covering.



Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 11

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 10

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 10

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 10

 

AFL Round 10 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 1 unit North Melbourne +18.5 $1.89 William Hill

Bet 2 units Essendon-Richmond under 172.5 $1.85 William Hill  BB

Bet 2 units Collingwood-Western Bulldogs over 181.5 $1.90 Luxbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

North Melbourne, Hawthorn, Port Adelaide, St Kilda, Richmond, Adelaide, Carlton, Western Bulldogs, West Coast


Game Previews

Sydney v North Melbourne

Everyone has been lining up to pot the Kangas 9-0 record – a weak draw, a kind run with injuries etc. However, the reality is that starting 9-0 is bloody hard to do under the best of circumstances and I expect Scott will have them primed to prove a point. The Kangas have a good recent record against the Swans, winning two of the last four. They also have a good long term record as underdogs and have covered in 14 of their last 19 starts as a 15.5-30 point dog. At the very worst, I expect them to keep the game tight and I can’t see the Swans kicking away from them. When was the last time you saw an 18.5 point start for a 9-0 team? The market agrees and after moving towards the Swans earlier this week has now swung back towards the Kangas representing a 1-2 point move towards the Kangas overall.

Bet 1 unit North Melbourne +18.5 $1.89 William Hill


Essendon v Richmond

I’m really impressed with what Worsfold has done at Essendon. Similar to Roos with Melbourne the past two seasons, he has got them fighting hard and as a result, we have seen quite a few low scoring arm wrestles. The Dons have gone under in 29 of their last 39 games as a home state dog and 23 of their last 32 night games. The last five head to head clashes have yielded 121, 131, 172, 158 and 169. Furthermore, the Dons have gone under in 7 of 9 games this season. If the forecast morning showers persist into the afternoon, the ground could potentially be a little damp making scoring that little bit harder. The market agrees and has moved 4-6 points towards the under since Monday.

Bet 2 units Essendon-Richmond under 172.5 $1.85 William Hill  BB


Collingwood v Western Bulldogs

Great game that will tell us a lot about both clubs. A fine Sunday afternoon is forecast and I note Collingwood have gone over in 11 of their last 16 day matches. However the market has been set somewhat low for a day game due to the Doggies’s status as one of the AFL’s better defensive teams. However, this defensive prowess is largely confined to Etihad Stadium. At all other venues they have conceded around 100 points per game over their last 10 games. The market agrees and has moved 2 points towards the over since Monday

Bet 2 units Collingwood-Western Bulldogs over 181.5 $1.90 Luxbet

 


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Brisbane v Hawthorn – Hawks have only covered 2 of 9 games this season and the market has picked up on this moving over 10 points towards the line since opening at 54.5 on Monday. Brisbane however are equally poor covering only 10 of their last 31 starts. A clash of two last start losers is always best avoided. Danger game!


Melbourne v Port Adelaide  – Power have covered 13 of their last 19 as an interstate dog. I have little enthusiasm for matches away from regular venues however. Danger game!


St Kilda v Fremantle – The Docker have reverted to type with four of their last five matches going under the total match score line available for this game while the last five head to head clashes between these two teams have yielded less than the total match score line available.


Adelaide v GWS – Crows have gone over in 21 of their last 30 however, not keen to play the high line in this night game, particularly with GWS going under in 14of their last 20 of a six day break.


Carlton v Geelong – After playing above themselves during a four match winning streak, the Blues’ bubble burst last week and their have to be question marks over the potential return of key talls, Kreuzer and Casboult from injury. They are ripe for the picking against a Cats side on the rebound from a loss. However, the Cats have a long term history of failing to cover 30.5+ lines, covering only 9 of the last 29 such occasions. I’m happy to pass.


West Coast v Gold Coast – A high line has been set for this match with the last six Suns matches yielding over 200 points. The Suns have also gone over in 29 of their last 41 day games while the Eagles have gone over in 33 of their last 49 day games. However, the Eagles have gone under in 6 of 9 games this season. It would not surprise me to see a similar score to the 132-29 result against St Kilda that also went under.


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 10

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 9

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 9

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 9

 

AFL Round 9 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 1 unit Hawthorn-Sydney over 189.5 $1.91 Bet365

Bet 2 units Port Adelaide-West Coast under 190.5 $1.88 Sportsbet  BB

Bet 2 units  Melbourne -37.5 $2.01 Pinnacle

Bet 1 unit GWS -18.5 $2.05 Pinnacle

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Hawthorn, Geelong, Adelaide, West Coast, North Melbourne, Fremantle, Melbourne, GWS, St Kilda


Game Previews

 

Hawthorn v Sydney

Emotional match for Hawthorn, coming days after learning about Roughy’s impending cancel battle. Reading the Play extends our best wishes to Roughy and the Hawks. The Hawks have a good recent record against the Swans who have only covered 2 of their last 10 at the MCG. However, the Hawks have a poor cover record overall this year and can’t be trusted at this stage. These teams have a history of shoot outs with four of the last five clashes going over the 190.5 available.  Hawthorn’s last four matches have all yielded over 190.5 while  4 of the Swans last 7 have gone over 190.5. For good measure, Hawthorn have gone over in 9 of their last 12 night games.

Bet 1 unit Hawthorn-Sydney over 189.5 $1.91 Bet365


Port Adelaide v West Coast

The Eagles lived up to their reputation as flat track bullies at home last week while the Power limp back to Adelaide after losing to Carlton. With Gray expected to return, the Power are in with a chance to get their season back on track against the Eagles who are on a five match road losing streak. I’m expecting a fair degree of intensity and commitment from both sides who have something to prove and we could potentially see an arm wrestle. This clash has a recent history of low scores with the last four clashes yielding 146, 126, 163 and 148, admittedly prior to the rule changes that have increased scoring. However, despite racking up a few cricket scores the Eagles are actually a 5-3 under team this season while the Power have gone under in 3 of their last 6. Further, the Power have gone under in 9 of their last 12 at a home dog. The market agrees moving 1-2 points to the under since Monday.

Bet 2 units Port Adelaide-West Coast under 190.5 $1.88 Sportsbet  BB


Melbourne v Brisbane

The Lions could have up to nine changes after last week’s diabolical effort against Collingwood. There might be some more application, but with an inexperienced list and lack of combinations in place, they will be up against it. They have only covered 2 of their 8 matches this season losing road clashes by 77, 53, 69 and 64 points. Melbourne thrashed the Suns by 73 at Metricon a fortnight ago and at their home track, I expect them to do likewise to the Lions. The market agrees and has moved  at least 6 points towards Melbourne since Monday.

Bet 2 units  Melbourne -37.5 $2.01 Pinnacle


GWS v Western Bulldogs

GWS have covered 18 of their last 24 as a favourite and get their chance to extend their winning streak against a Bulldogs outfit beset by injury and suspension.  The Bulldogs went 2-4 interstate last year and their defence is noticeably leakier away from Etihad, which is not what you want against the high scoring Giants. The market agrees and has moved 2-3 points towards GWS since Monday.

Bet 1 unit GWS -18.5 $2.05 Pinnacle


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Collingwood v Geelong – The Pies returned to some semblance of form in their preferred night timeslot against the line but remain a poor day outfit covering just 4 of their last 15 in daylight.


Gold Coast v Adelaide – The Suns are likely to make six changes and again, I expect them to have a cricket score racked up against them with Adelaide going over in 18 of their last 25 games. However, with the highest line of the season and a slight chance of showers, I’m just watching.


North Melbourne v Carlton – Despite since top of the ladder North are 4-4 against the line and struggling to put teams away. They get their chance here off a seven day break – they have covered 24 of their last 34 with the week between games and the brave Blues starting to accumulate injuries.


Fremantle v Richmond –  Tigers have gone under in 18 of their last 26 interstate but the line is already set for rain. Very little to like about this game as a betting proposition. Danger game!


St Kilda v Essendon – The Dons are 28-10 under as a home dog and Worsfold is clearly concentrating on their defence but not keen to bet the under at Etihad in this high scoring era.



Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 9

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.