AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Grand Final

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Grand Final

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


AFL Grand Final 2016


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Grand Final Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 1 unit Sydney -9.5 $1.95 Bet365

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Game Preview

Swans vs Bulldogs

 

Sydney’s first quarter demolition of Geelong last week was a blitzkrieg that is rarely seen at the highest level and it was a level of performance that can only be achieved by the very best teams – and they did it off a six day break! The Western Bulldogs fairytale continues to gather momentum, but the reality is that their very best football is short of what the Swans have to offer.

I expect Hannebery, Parker, Kennedy and Jack to win the majority of contested ball and give the Swans the edge in this department. I also see Buddy and Tippett as having a clear edge over their Bulldogs rivals. More importantly, I note that the Swans have 18 players with Grand Final experience  compared to just one for the Bulldogs. I want to be on the experienced Swans who  are determined to avenge the their embarassing 2014 capitulation to Hawthorn. They also play in their preferred day timeslot and have covered  the line in 30 of their last 46 day matches.

Yes, the Bulldogs have won the two most recent clashes by four points on both occasions and they have an excellent cover record as underdogs, but I happy to bet against Grand Final rookies and expect the Swans to have learnt from those games and to turn the tables convincingly.

The line is set at 9.5 to 11.5 points and I note that since Sydney and West Coast played back to back thrillers in 2005-2006, only the Collingwood-St Kilda drawn Grand Final failed to deliver a double figure margin to the victors. Close grand finals are the exception to the rule in the modern era.

The line has been set very low for the two best defensive teams in the league, but if the rain stays away, I lean towards the over, especially with the Bulldog being very aggressive in attack in recent weeks.

Tip – Swans

Bet 1 unit Sydney -9.5 $1.95 Bet365


Winning Horse Racing Tips

 

 


 

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©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Grand Final

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

 

sports betting tips reading the play

 

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 3

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 3

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


AFL Finals Week 3

 

Bet 2 units Geelong H2H $1.66 William Hill BB

Bet 1 unit GWS-Western Bulldogs over 167.5 $1.90 Unibet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Geelong, GWS


Game Previews

 

Geelong v Sydney

 

Since the McIntyre System was introduced in 2000, Qualifying Finals winners who earned a week off have proceeded to win 28 of the 32 Preliminary Finals they have contested. This is a powerful form factor in anyone’s  language. Granted, the pre finals bye has added uncertainty to the mix with Geelong playing just their second match in four weeks. However, in an era of sports scientists tapering the players’ physical preparation to the minute, I don’t expect the Cats to be underdone. The main challenge will be between the ears and there is enough experience in the Cat’s roster to prepare accordingly.  I am comfortable discounting the Cats regular season loss to the Swans as a form reference as they made half a dozen changes for that match including bringing in Mitch Clark for his only game of the season.

The Swans were outstanding last week but off a six day back up and with injury concerns to key players they have to be risked. Also, the Swans have only covered the line in 3 of their last 11 matches at the MCG. The market agrees and has moved 1-2 points towards the Cats since Monday. I have a lot of respect for what the Swans will bring and am suggesting  a conservative play of Geelong to win head to head.

Bet 2 units Geelong H2H $1.66 William Hill BB


GWS v Western Bulldogs

 

Great clash between two up and coming sides. As already mentioned, the Bulldogs will be up against the weight of history with Qualifying Final winners prevailing in 28 of the last 32 Preliminary Finals. Further, the Giants have covered the line in 25 of 36 matches as a favourite. The Dogs however have covered the line in 14 of their last 18 as a 0.5-15 point underdog. Lean towards GWS to cover but think the bookies have the line right.

The bookies have set the line low based on their data for the season. However, I have noted that the Dogs have really been chancing their arm in attack in the playoffs and it has been paying off as they have recorded 107 and 99 points in attack. Further, the last five clashes between these two outfits have yielded 171, 181, 224, 193 and 170 points, all over the line set for this match. The lines have barely moved since Monday but a couple of bookies have tightened the odds in favour of the over.

Bet 1 unit GWS-Western Bulldogs over 167.5 $1.90 Unibet


 

Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 3

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 2

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 2

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Finals Week 2

 

Bet 1 unit Sydney-Adelaide over 175.5 $1.90 William Hill

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Hawthorn, Sydney


Game Previews

 

Sydney v Adelaide

Between 2000-2014, Qualifying Final losers won 26 of 28 Semi Finals against Elimination Final losers. However, the tables have been turned over the past two season with Elimination Final winners prevailing in three of the past four Semi Finals. Both teams have won 17 out of 23 games this season, so it can be argued that the gap between 1st and 5th is non-existent this year. The Swans won four of their last five against the Crows but have lost their last four finals matches so I can’t have them with confidence. The market also has doubts about the Swans, moving 2-4 points towards the Crows since Tuesday morning. I’m sitting on the fence here.

However, I’m keen to back the Swans attack to click back into gear at the SCG after an off day when kicking 7:13 against GWS. Adelaide’s attacking prowess needs no introduction – they have gone over in 14 of 23 games this season and have gone over in 12 of their last 17 as an interstate dog. Further the last three matches between these two teams yielded 216, 182 and 205 points. While I expect the game to be played at typical finals intensity with periods of arm wrestling, I am also expecting the game to open up at times to keep the scoreboard ticking over. The market agrees and has moved 1-2 points towards the over since Tuesday morning.

Bet 1 unit Sydney-Adelaide over 175.5 $1.90 William Hill


 

Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Hawthorn v Western Bulldogs

Hawthorn have won 17 games this season, just one more than the Bulldogs who have won 16, so the ‘gap’ between Qualifying Final losers and Elimination Finals winners isn’t as big as it has been in many of the one sided Semi Final contests between 2000-2014.

Hawthorn have covered the line in 11 of their last 13 matches when playing at the MCG immediately after a loss, however, have lost three of their last five matches and need to be taken on trust. The Doggies have covered the line in 13 of their last 17 matches when starting a 0.5-15pt underdog and beat the Hawks in many statistical categories when going down 93-90 at Etihad earlier this season. Too close to call! Slight lean to Hawks.

The Doggies have gone under in 16 of 23 games this season, hence the very low line. However, the last two clashes between these two sides yielded 183 and 184 points and the Doggies defence is not as tight away from Etihad. I lean towards the over.


 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 2

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 1

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 1

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Finals Week 1

 

Bet 2 units Sydney -15.5 $1.92 Crownbet BB

Bet 1 unit Western Bulldogs +26.5 $1.91 UniBet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

West Coast, Geelong, Sydney, Adelaide


Game Previews

 

West Coast v Western Bulldogs

In recent years, the 6th versus 7th Elimination Final has provided the most wins to the lower ranked team in week one of the AFL Finals with the last 10 clashes shared evenly at five apiece between the teams finishing 6th and 7th. The Bulldogs dominated this season’s clash and the 83-75 scoreline did not reflect their dominance, albeit against an Eagles team that was struggling at the time. The Dogs have won four of their last ten against the Eagles and the 11 day break since their last game brings the Bulldogs into this contest. The Dogs are also adept at keeping the score tight and they rarely get blown out. Their worst loss this season was by 57 points to Geelong with their next worse losses by just 25 points to both Geelong (again) and GWS. I lean towards the Bulldogs covering the line in a low scoring arm wrestle and the market agrees, moving two to three points towards the Dogs since Monday.

Bet 1 unit Western Bulldogs +26.5 $1.91 UniBet


Sydney v GWS

Backing the top ranked team to beat the 4th ranked team in the Qualifying Final has been one of the most bankable bets over the past decade with the ladder leading winning the past nine Qualifying Finals against the fourth placed team. All of those wins have been by 20 points or more with the exception of last year when a slumping Fremantle side scraped past the Swans by 9 points. I’m keen to be on the Swans with their edge in finals experience and their 8-2 all time head to head record against little brother. The Swans are the AFL’s best defensive team, conceding only 67 points a game this season and I expect that to be the deciding factor. GWS like any young team in their finals debut have to be risked, especially as they have had two weeks to think about the game and play it in their head.

Bet 2 units Sydney -15.5 $1.92 Crownbet BB


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Geelong v Hawthorn – The footy gods (and AFL House) continue to smile on Hawthorn. They have a much needed 12 day break and will play at home. In a different world, they could easily be facing a trip to Simmonds Stadium on a six day turnaround. The team finishing second has won 7 of the last 10 Qualifying Finals and Geelong are in imposing form with a seven game winning streak. Lean towards Geelong to cover the line.


Adelaide v North Melbourne – The 5th placed team has a 6-4 record over the 8th place team in Elimination Finals over the past decade. On form, I have a strong lean towards the Crows covering the five goal line but am wary that the 14 day break will give North a chance to regroup from the turmoil of the past two months. North have also covered the line in 29 of their last 43 games on a break of seven days or more and have won two of their last four against the Crows.


 

 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Finals Week 1

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


AFL Round 23

 

Bet 2 units Hawthorn-Collingwood over 176.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB

Bet TBA – Fremantle-Western Bulldogs over

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Adelaide, Geelong, Carlton, Sydney, Port Adelaide, GWS, St Kilda, Hawthorn, Western Bulldogs


Game Previews

 

Hawthorn v Collingwood

Hawthorn are the best in the AFL at rebounding from a loss and have won 11 of their last 12 matches played at the MCG in the week following a loss. However, I don’t have the confidence in them to cover a five goal line while adjusting to the loss of Ceglar. However, I do expect this to be a free scoring game. From 2010 to 2016, Sunday afternoon matches in the final round of the season have averaged nearly 190 points as playoff bound teams sharpen their attack and teams out of the eight take a loose and carefree approach. Further, the last five clashes between these two teams have yielded 192, 177, 201, 203 and 235 points. The market agrees and has moved five to six points towards the over since Tuesday morning. It has also firmed since our SMS recommendation on Thursday morning.

Bet 2 units Hawthorn-Collingwood over 176.5 $1.90 Sportsbet BB


Fremantle v Western Bulldogs

Pav’s last hurrah should ensure that Fremantle come ready to play against the Doggies. The line has been set very low due to the defensive minded nature of both teams and the wet weather forecast today and Saturday. Depending upon how much rain Perth gets, I may recommend an over bet later today or tomorrow. Fremantle are not the defensive side they used to be and their last five matches have yielded 166, 212, 174, 184 and 186 points – well over the line available for this match. At home, they should be able to score enough goals to ensure the total goes over.

Bet TBA – Fremantle-Western Bulldogs over


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Adelaide v West Coast – They won’t need to open the dressing room doors for either side tonight! I lean towards Adelaide continuing their good form and covering the line. The market is moving towards the over, but I’m not convinced and note that Eagles have gone under in 15 of 21 games this season and in 18 of their last 26 night games.


Geelong v Melbourne – It’s hard to know where Melbourne’s head will be there for this one after last week’s season loss to Carlton cruelled their finals hopes. The bookies have offered Melbourne a five goal start but this doesn’t interest me. I have no interest in Geelong either after they struggled to put the Lions to the sword last week. They are a poor 10-25 as a 30.5+ favourite.


Essendon v Carlton – Carlton have covered the line in 23 of their last 34 day games and I lean towards the Blues covering.


Sydney v Richmond – Swans obviously have everything to play for and should cover the large line against the Tigers. However, I respect the Tigers good recent head to head record against the Swans and won’t be taking them on. Tigers have gone under total match score line in 11 of their last 14 as an interstate dog.


Gold Coast v Port Adelaide – Port have covered the line in 22 of their last 32 night games. I expect them to have too much run for a depleted Suns side that is obviously cooked. Market has moved three points towards Port since Tuesday morning.


North Melbourne v GWS – Intriguing clash! Keys stats favouring both sides with GWS covering 24 of their last 35 as favourite and North covering 21 of their last 30 as a home dog. Danger game!


St Kilda v Brisbane – Lions continue to leak points and have gone over in an amazing 17 of 21 games this season. Accordingly, the market has been set very high and I’m happy to pass on this one.


 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 22

 

Bet 3 units West Coast-Hawthorn under 170.5  $1.91 Bet365 BB

Bet 2 units GWS-Fremantle over 169.5 $1.91 Bet365

Bet 2 units Brisbane-Geelong over 192.5 $1.91 Bet365

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Hawthorn, Sydney, St Kilda, GWS, Collingwood, Adelaide, Melbourne, Geelong, Western Bulldogs


Game Previews

 

West Coast v Hawthorn

The Eagles have been off the pace all season, but have they hit their straps at the right time? They get their chance to show that in a rematch of last year’s Qualifying Final at this venue. I still lean slightly towards the Hawks on the strength of their mental edge over the Eagles through convincing victories in the last two clashes. With both teams off a six day back up and a potential high stakes arm wrestle on the cards, my interest lies in the under betting play. The Eagles have been a strong under side this season going under in 14 of their 20 matches. They have also gone under in 17 of their last 25 night matches. Further, Hawthorn are no longer a prolific scoring team and their last five matches have yielded 153, 191, 129, 158 and 145 points. Four of the last five head to head clashes have gone under the 170.5 line we recommended to subscribers on Wednesday morning. The market agrees with a number of bookies moving 3-4 points towards the under since then.

Bet 3 units West Coast-Hawthorn under 170.5 $1.91 Bet365 BB


GWS v Fremantle

This match shapes a typical late season affair between a home outfit sharpening its attack for the finals and a cellar dweller on the road and looking for the finish line. Freo have been a prolific scoring team at home and the twilight timeslot should not impede their scoring. The market appears to have been set on the basis of Freo’s long term reputation as a defensive minded ‘unders’ team. However, this is not reflected in recent form with the last four Freo matches yielding 212, 174, 184 and 186 points. Three of the last four head to head clashes have also gone over the 169.5 line we recommended to our subscribers on Wednesday morning. The market agrees and has moved a massive 10-12 points towards the over since then.

Bet 2 units GWS-Fremantle over 169.5 $1.91 Bet365


Brisbane-Geelong

Like GWS v Freo, this match shapes as a high scoring late season affair in fine conditions. Geelong has been an unders side this season, but I expect their forward line to grab a lot of marks against the under manned Lions defence and have a tune up prior to the finals. With an eight day break and back to back home games, the Lions are more than capable of racking up 70-80 points to ensure a high scoring affair. The Lions have gone over in 16 out of 20 games this season with the last five matches yielding totals of 194, 216, 252, 219 and 213 points. The market agrees and has moved four points towards the over since we recommended our subscribers bet over 192.5 on Wednesday morning.

Bet 2 units Brisbane-Geelong over 192.5 $1.91 Bet365


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


North Melbourne v Sydney – The Swans have covered the line in 30 of their last 44 day matches while the Kangas have covered the line in 28 of their last 41 matches with seven or more days between games. Nonetheless, I lean towards the Swans covering.


Richmond v St Kilda – Tigers have gone under the total match score line in 18 of their last 26 games off a six day break and with wet weather on the horizon, this does shape as an ‘under’ game. However, it is also a late season clash between two outfits out of finals contention and defence can be loose in such matches.


Collingwood v Gold Coast – Pies have gone under in 36 of their last 53 at night. Again, it is also a late season clash between two outfits out of finals contention and defence can be loose in such matches. Lean towards the over.


Port Adelaide v Adelaide – Port looked awful last weekend and the Crows racked up their third cricket score on the trot.  However, I’m not keen to bet against Port in a Showdown and also note that they have covered the line in 21 of their last 31 night games.


Carlton v Melbourne – It’s hard to go past the streaking Dees to cover against the slumping Blues. Will consider a bet on this match after the outcome of the North Melbourne-Sydney clash.


Essendon v Western Bulldogs – Dons have gone under in 32 of their last 46 games as a home dog. Again, it is also a late season clash between two outfits out of finals contention and defence can be loose in such matches. Lean towards the over.


 

 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 20

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 20

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 20

 

Bet 1 unit Gold Coast -17.5 $1.93 Bet365

Bet 2 units Geelong-Richmond under 171.5 $1.85 William Hill BB

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Western Bulldogs, Carlton, Hawthorn, GWS, Sydney, Port Adelaide, Gold Coast, Geelong, Adelaide


Game Previews

 

Essendon v Gold Coast

The Suns have performed admirably in recent weeks going down narrowly to Melbourne on the road and GWS at home. Prior to that, they proved themselves capable of covering a 20+ line with a 24 point win over Freo and a 26 point win over the Lions. They are getting troops back and are knocking on the door of another win and get their chance to repeat their 61 point win over the Dons in Round 1. The Dons are limping to the finish line and have been beaten by more than 22.5 in 9 of their last 11 matches.  Further, Essendon have only covered 13 of their last 36 matches at Etihad.

Bet 1 unit Gold Coast -17.5 $1.93 Bet365


Geelong v Richmond

The Cats have gone under in 13 of 19 games this season and their defence has been strangling sides in recent weeks, allowing just 34, 78, 55 and 61 in their past four games. With percentage critically important this season, I can’t see the Cats conceding too many cheap points against the Tigers. Four of the Tigers last five games have gone under 171.5 points while four of the last five head to head clashes have also gone under 171.5 points. The market agrees and has moved 1-2 points towards the under since Tuesday morning.

Bet 2 units Geelong-Richmond under 171.5 $1.85 William Hill BB


Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Western Bulldogs v Collingwood – Dogs have gone under in 19 of their last 25 off a six day break and the Pies have gone under in 36 of their last 52 night games. Line has been set low however, with Pies going over this line in four of their last five.


Brisbane v Carlton – Lions have gone over in 15 of 19 games this season with their last five yielding 216, 252, 219, 213 and 252. A late season day game between two sides out of finals contention is normally a recipe for a shootout but I’m just wary that Carlton might try and strangle this to grind out a much needed victory.


Hawthorn v North Melbourne – Hawks have covered 10 of their last 11 when playing at MCG next game after a loss but Roos have covered 8 of their last 11 at MCG. Very slight lean to Kangas with start. Danger game!


GWS v West Coast – GWS have covered 23 of their last 33 when starting as favourites but after four weeks on the road and just scraping home late over the Suns. Slight lean to the experienced Eagles with the start, but I’d rather just watch this one.


St Kilda v Sydney – Swans have gone under in 35 of their last 52 at night and with percentage being important, they won’t want to give Saints too many cheap points. Lean to the under.


Fremantle v Adelaide – The Crows should pick up where they left off after racking up cricket scores against Dons and Lions and Freo’s total match scores have crept up also in the last three weeks. Lean to the over.


 

 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


AFL Round 19

 

Bet 2 units Collingwood -15.5 $1.92 Luxbet

Bet 2 units Gold Coast-GWS under 192.5 $1.90 Luxbet BB

Bet 1 unit Adelaide-Brisbane over 207.5 $1.91 Bet365

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Collingwood, Sydney, Hawthorn, GWS, North Melbourne, Adelaide, St Kilda, Geelong, West Coast


Game Previews

 

Richmond v Collingwood

The Pies have won 8 of their last 10 v Richmond and come into this game having won 4 of their last 6 with a reasonable form line. Their only losses in that time frame have been against Adelaide and North Melbourne. The Tigers on the other hand are blooding kids, have lost four of their last five and were diabolical in managing just 23 points against GWS. In their preferred night time slot, the Pies are well placed to continue their solid finish to the season. The market agrees, firming 3-4 points towards the Pies since Tuesday morning.

Bet 2 units Collingwood -15.5 $1.92 Luxbet


Gold Coast v GWS

A very high line has been set for this twilight match with the bookies clearly placing considerable weight on the first clash between these two sides earlier this season – which yielded 207 points. However, that match was played in the middle of the Suns’ 10 game losing streak when they were low on troops. They have now recovered to win three of their last five, including a narrow two point loss. While still low on midfield grunt, the Suns forwards and backs have performed admirably in recent weeks and I expect them to be highly competitive against a fellow expansion club.   Importantly, the Suns’ last three matches have yielded 130, 186 and 166 points while the Giants last two matches have  yielded 134 and 139 points. The Suns are off a six day back up while the Giants will be playing their fourth consecutive road trip which will take a bit out of both sides. If the forecast showers arrive, the chances of the match going under will be further enhanced.

Bet 2 units Gold Coast-GWS under 192.5 $1.90 Luxbet BB


Adelaide v Brisbane

The Crows demonstrated last weekend that they were in a percentage boosting mood and they get another chance here against a Lions outfit that continued to leak points while still managing to score  enough goals of their own to keep the scorekeepers busy. The Lions have gone over in 14 of 18 games this season and their last four matches have yielded 252, 219, 213 and 252 points. Not even last weekend’s night match could keep the scores down and another shoot out is on the cards at the Adelaide Oval.

Bet 1 unit Adelaide-Brisbane over 207.5


 

Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Sydney v Port Adelaide  – The Power racked up a cricket score against the Lions and have gone over in 10 of their last 12 day games but expect this game to be played on the Swans terms and they have gone under in 12 of 18 games this season.


Melbourne v Hawthorn – Hawks have won 13 in a row against the Demons. At this stage of the season with heavy training in progress before the taper, it would not surprise in the least to see them do just enough to win. Lean towards the Demons to cover and the match to go under.


Western Bulldogs v North Melbourne – Kangas have covered 28 of their last 39 with seven or more days between games but I respect the fact that the Dogs have covered 12 of their last 16 as 0.5-15 point underdogs. Slight lean towards the Kangas on the back of a healthier squad.


Carlton v St Kilda – Blues are again in their preferred daytime slot where they have covered 22 of their last 31. However, I can’t have them at the small line. Very slight lean to the Saints.


Geelong v Essendon – Geelong ‘should’ belt the Dons but they have a poor record as 30.5+ favourites covering on 9 of the last 32 such games. Further they have only won by more than 66.5 on only two occasions this season so can’t be trusted to cover the big line. Danger game!


Fremantle v West Coast – Eagles have gone under in 14 of 18 games this season and I expect Freo to be happy to make an arm wrestle of it. However with a very low line for a day game, this game is best left alone.

 


 

 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

afl_tips_reading_the_play

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

 

AFL Statsman provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews sports betting tips.

 


2016 – Profit +0.9 units | 32 winners / 60 bets | Strike Rate 53.3%

2015 – Profit +38.9 units | 35 winners / 53 bets | Strike Rate 66.0%

2014 – Profit +23.0 units | 41 winners / 70 bets  | Strike Rate 59.7%


 

AFL Round 18

 

Bet 1 unit Carlton +48.5 $1.90 TAB Sportsbet BB

Adelaide v Essendon – TBA

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – afl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

We recognises that sports betting markets are subject to fluctuation and recommended positions can on occasions move quickly. We ensure that at the time of publication our recommended bets are available with at least two leading Australian bookmakers and/or TABs so that everyone has an opportunity to play. If a market has moved in line with any recommended bet we would still advise that long term profit can still be achieved by betting a line that has firmed up to two points since the bet recommendation (but be aware of key number positions). In the rare instance that all available lines have firmed more than two points beyond our recommendation after publication we would suggest either obtaining a position with a pick your own line option is available down to $1.80 or not betting.


Individual Game Tips

Geelong, GWS, Hawthorn, West Coast, Port Adelaide, North Melbourne, Melbourne, Sydney, Adelaide


Game Previews

 

Hawthorn v Carlton

While the Hawks remain the standout team in the competition in terms of wins and losses, they clearly haven’t been putting teams away like they used to. They have only won by more than 48.5 points twice in 17 games this season. The Blues have covered 21 of their last 30 day games and despite losing six in a row, they have only been blown out in one of those games. They have been playing with spirit and I expect them to be well prepared for this contest with Bolton up against his old team for the first time.  The Blues will also be advantaged with a seven day turnaround compared to six days for Hawthorn.

Bet 1 unit Carlton +48.5 $1.90 TAB Sportsbet BB


Adelaide v Essendon

Was very keen on Adelaide to cover in a match going over given the last four clashes have yielded 230, 193, 199 and 204 points but I’m very risk averse and refrain from playing big lines and overs when wet weather is forecast. I’ll be keeping a close watch on the weather with a view to advising of a potential bet if the weather is favourable.

Potential bet TBA


 

Stats That Matter

I don’t offer any in depth preview detail for any games that I will not be betting, however do offer the key stats and background that I have considered across these remaining games each week which subscribers can then reference or use – The Stats that Matter.

Use these stats to plan your multiple bets, have a little flutter for interest’s sake and stay well clear of danger matches!


Geelong v Western Bulldogs – The desperately unlucky Dogs continue to lose players to injury but continue to fight hard. They have been involved in a few arm wrestles in recent weeks as have Geelong. With the loser likely to struggle to make the top four, there is a good chance of a classic high stakes arm wrestle here. Both teams have gone under in 12 of their 17 matches this season and the Dogs have also gone under in 19 of their last 24 with six days between games. A slight chance of a shower is forecast and will further increase the chance of the match going under. Was keen to bet the under but really need a line of 160.5 or higher.


GWS v Richmond – GWS have covered the line in 22 of 31 games as favourites, but having never beaten Richmond before I can’t have them. They are also a risk to cover the big line off a six day break.


Collingwood v West Coast – Eagles have gone under in 13 of 17 games this season and I lean towards this continuing but the bookies have nailed the total spot on in their markets.
Brisbane v Port Adelaide – Port are in their preferred night timeslot having covered 20 of their last 29 night games while the Lions have only covered 1 of their last 8 night games and 12 of their last 39 games overall. Lean towards Port covering and the over in a high scoring shootout.


North Melbourne v St Kilda – Hats off to Boomer. The market has moved towards 2-3 points towards the Kangas since Tuesday morning and I lean towards them also as they have covered in 27 of their last 38 off a seven day break.


Melbourne v Gold Coast – Suns have gone over in 31 of their last 45 day games. With both sides out of contention, I lean towards the over in what shapes as a potential late season day time shootout.


Fremantle v Sydney – Swans have covered the line in 28 of their last 42 day games and I expect them to prevail in a low scoring clash.


 

 


Twitter

Follow us on Twitter at

@readingtheplay

©Copyright Reading The Play

All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.

 

AFL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 18

AFL Statsman provides our AFL Sports Previews and Betting Tips

 

Having played and followed the game for some 31 years Statsman combines an in depth statistical analysis and hands on view of the AFL and now provides our subscribers with his AFL tips game previews and recommended afl sports betting tips.

Statsman has a strong sense of history and repeatedly quotes Spanish philosopher, George Santayana in saying ‘Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” He understands the markets and how to beat them; this is the key to winning long term. He has a keen eye for form, bias, faults and misconceptions within the market. Statsman beats the market because he has an edge – he analyses the stats, he doesn’t just use them, he looks for angles and opportunities that others don’t see and he doesn’t believe the hype.

Statsman is fanatical about discipline and abhors risky bets and strategies, preferring the methodical accumulation of profit. He only invests money where he has a positive expectation of winning. This is a key to winning long term. He believes in strict money management. There is no short term path to riches in sports betting. It is about discipline and patience.

Subscription Options

A range of subscription packages are available to suit everyone (from as low as $16 a week), Weekly, Multi 5 Week, Season Pass and or various combinations with our other website offerings of NRL or Horse Racing.