Free Preview & Bet – Caulfield Guineas 2013 &#8...

 

Caulfield Guineas
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Caulfield Guineas Bet

Caulfield R10#4  LONG JOHN $4.20 (Bet365)

I find it very hard to go past LONG JOHN here. He is yet to miss a place in 6 starts (4 wins). He has all the relevant historical factors in his favour, was the best run in the Guineas Prelude, meets the winner and 3rd placegetter 2kg better for that run, and is crying out for 1600m. I’d much prefer the race to be at Flemington for him, and Barrier 1 at Caulfield is a slight concern, but I think the speed of the race is likely to suit and Barriers 1-3 have won 3 of the last 4 editons. He drew an inside barrier in the Prelude and it didn’t seem to affect him there, more the distance that beat him rather than the draw. $4.20 on Unitab and Betstar this morning is good enough but that is about the minimum I want to take WIN ONLY.

Free Tip

Doomben R5#5  TORNADO MISS $5.50 (Bet365)

Caulfield Guineas History

Here are the last 15 winners of the race followed by the most pertinent historical factors which might lead us to this years winner.

2012 All Too Hard (3) D.Dunn

2011 Helmet (8) K McEvoy

2010 Anacheeva (1) L. Nolan

2009 Starspangledbanner (1)

2008 Whobegotyou (11) M. Rodd

2007 Weekend Hussler (2) B.Rawiller

2006 Wonderful World (8) L.Nolan

2005 God’s Own (12) G.Boss

2004 Econsul (4) C.Munce

2003 In Top Swing (4) N. Callow

2002 Helenus (7) S.King

2001 Lonhro (10) D.Gauci

1999 Redoutes Choice (1) J.Cassidy

1998 Kenwood Melody (4) R.Dye

1997 Encounter (4) R.Dye

a) Barriers 1 to 4 (8 of last 15)

b) Guineas Prelude easily best guide

c) An ability to race midfield or near the pace- The positive this year is that the track has been racing worse than Good all Spring and times have been Slowish. It is a decent sized field this year which appears to have a little more speed in it than usual which might give a backmarker it’s chance.

d) 18 of the last 23 winners have won or placed in a Group race at it’s previous start.

The 2010 edition was one by Anacheeva (barrier 1 sat 3rd just behind pace). 2011 Helmet (Barrier 8 but he crossed early to lead field) 2012 All Too Hard (barrier 3 got back a little but came around field on turn in fast run race).

2 of those 3 winners out of Guineas Prelude, the other came via Geoge Main Stakes 4th. Similar for Dissident on Saturday.

Looks a pretty even field with no actual standout which historically might suggest that those in barriers 1-4 could be the ones to have more confidence in. Conversely at first look there seems to be above average speed in this edition so a midfield/backmarker type should get it’s chance and a wide barrier might not be fatal.

Race History (c/. Trackdata)

Favourites < 6/4 have won 3 of 6 events (50%), while Favourites < 5/2 have won 5 of 13 events (40%).

Runners < 4/1 have won 8 of 19 events (40%), while Runners < 8/1 have won 12 of the last 14 events (85%), but 13 of 19 overall (70%)

Runners drawn Barriers 1 to 4 have won 9 of the last 14 events (65%), and 10 of 19 overall (55%).

Runners who had (a) won a Group 1 race during this preparation, or (b) finished 1st or 2nd in either the Guineas Prelude, Stutt Stks, Spring Stks or Stan Fox Stks have won 13 of the last 15 events (85%) – this stat looks a little out of date.

Runners placed in a Group race at their most recent start have won 14 of the last 17 events (85%), and 14 of 19 overall (75%), noting that Starspangledbanner (2009) was desperately unlucky at his last start.

Lead-up Runs

Without a doubt the best guides in recent years since the Prelude became a G3 in 2001 have been:

Prelude – 4 winners and all ran Top 4 in the Prelude

Stutt -2 winners and both won the Stutt

Stan Fox -2 winners and both won that race but only MASQUERADER (5th) comes from the race this time

The Beaten Favs Roll of Honour is littered with Stan Fox winners (5), Stutt winners (3) and Rupert Clark winners and r/up (3)

Barriers

Looking at the winners of the last 15 or so editions double figure gates have not been kind with only freakish performances or freak horses overcoming that handicap (WBGY (11), GOD’S OWN (12) & LONHRO (10). Incidentally all 3 of those were on Dead rated tracks. Trackdata’s stats do need updating but amazingly 13 of the last 18 winners came from 1 to 4.

Speed

Historically the first half mile tends to be run faster, the exceptions being HELENUS, LONHRO and STARSPANGLEDBANNER, the latter being extreme in that they ran a full 3 seconds faster for the last half mile

Position in the Run

The wide gate winners unsurprisingly came from worse than midfield but other than that it’s been a mixed bag though with those 3 exceptions, all those winning on Dead or better have been in the front half of the field at the halfway point.

 

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NRL – Grand Final – Preview & Betting Advice NRL ...

 

Grand Final Preview NRL 2012 
BULLDOGS v STORM

Homebush  5.15pm Sunday

Opening Pricing and Lines – Bulldogs $1.90 > $2.10 line + 2.5 / Storm $2.00 > $1.75 -2.5

Any market moves: There has been a significant move for the Storm since the markets first opened last weekend with them heavily supported from $2.00 in all week to $1.75 and the market position roles reversed. Should Hawthorn win the AFL GF on Saturday you can then expect the Storm to firm even further on the weight of longer term doubles. If you are looking to play the line dependent on who you wish to play it ranges from 1.5 to 2.5.

And so now the big dance has arrived!

A few facts and figures –

Bulldogs

–          Won their last 10 straight at the ground

–          Won 14 of their last 15 games

–          Won 7 of 8 this season when playing with a plus points start

Storm

–          Won 7 of their last 8 at the ground

–          Won their last 7 straight

–          Won 14 of 24 this season when conceding a minus points start

 

–          Storm have won 9 of the last 12 H2H contests

–          None of their last 6 H2H match ups between these two sides have been at Homebush

–          13 of the last 19 grand final winners have been out ofSydneysides

–          Hasler and Bellamy coached sides have played in 5 of the last 7 grand finals

–          4 of the last 5 GF’s have resulted in a 13+ margin result

–          7 of the last 9 GF winners have lead at half time

Both sides are line ball in attack and defence, the Bulldogs A 23.6 and D 15.3, the Storm A 24.1 and D 15.0.

Both sides should appear as named with no obvious or critical last minute injury issues.

An intriguing matchup with two sides who play very different patterns of attack play. Both sides have come through similar approaches to reach the GF, the Bulldogs through the Eagles then a commanding result over the Rabbits, the Storm a similar result over the Rabbits and then a comfortable enough touch up over the Eagles.

The Bulldogs have a clever mix of play. While not playing the traditional yardage and go forward game style they do have 3 big up front forwards who can carve particular plays as required. Their pet options are while going forward play after play to be pushing sideways across the park with the options of either quick tip on passing plays to the outer edge or quick return passing plays back at where they have come. With the options of Reynolds, Keating and Barba able to link in they have the speed and skill to catch defensive lines short or on the back foot. Alternatively they can crack your line off one of their big men, or in the final 30 metre attack zone look to play variations of their run around and or decoy plays. Although they play with a lot of speed and passing plays they are very well structured and drilled. Barba is the key to the Bulldogs attack, he is a game change, his freakish touches and speed can turn a game on its head in a matter of minutes.

Defensively the Bulldogs right edge has been exposed on a number of occasions, with each Reynolds,Jacksonand Inu being found out. The Storm like to favour their left edge in attack so we’ll see plenty of play targeted down this side. Their big forwards are also susceptible to being worked over (work rate) and run around, then targeted with clever dummy half play in and behind them. I’m sure the Storm will look to use Smith, Slater, Cronk and Widdop with various plays through these channels.

The Storm have looked their structured and disciplined best through recent weeks. All the hallmarks of Bellamy’s game plans are there, high completions (near 82% and 88% their last two games, near faultless), quality long kicking and field position, accurate short options (7 drop outs / repeat sets through their last two games) and a significantly improved defensive effort.  They grind their opponents down with pressure and field position, and more often than not can weather the storm if and when it’s thrown at them.

They have had their moments when taken on physically through the middle, but interestingly here the consistent roll through the middle and work them over approach is not so much how the Bulldogs like to play. Like most they can get caught defensively against the up tempo play and clever ball shits to the edges, notably they have also had some problems on their left defensive outside edge which I’m sure Reynolds and Inu will look to play at.

The kicking tactics and general game of either side will have critical influence on this game. Both sides have brilliant fullbacks with outstanding kick return speed and skill so where and how the ball is placed (field position, on the ground or in the air) will be key. Following the injury to Reynolds last week the next 4 kicks from the Rabbits went to Barba on the full (as opposed to on the ground away from him or in a corner) allowing him reception on the run and additional time to play or set up their play. Keating also made a number of key error s with his kicking game execution last week which were not necessarily capitalised on, a repeat of such errors and the Storm won’t be as kind.

The Bulldogs have had an outstanding year and can win but I have the Storm marked on top for a number of reasons. I think their experience is a significant factor, especially at 9, 7, 6 and 1. I have quoted it before but rarely if ever is a premiership won by a side not led by a representative 7 or 6, the Storm have both on top of which all 4 key position players are current internationals. Kicking game and field position, I think Smith and Cronk have a decided advantage and if the Storm are playing off the back of their low error game then they’ll be spending a lot of game time playing the Bulldogs at their end of the park. Ruck play; Smith is arguably one of the best in today’s game, I’m sure we’ll see plenty of his skill and guile either out of dummy half and or linking with the other 3 to advantage.

Lastly I think the Storm are driven by a deep if not unique hunger. Regardless of what ever spin they have attempted to put on it through the last 18 months Bellamy, Smith, Cronk, Slater and co have endured much (of their own making) to get to this day, from stripped titles to rebuilding their player list to climbing step by step back to title contention. On the back of all of that they faltered in the preliminary final last year where the hurt and anguish was very obvious. I have no knock for the Bulldogs, and they can certainly win, but I think the Storm have an edge in a number of key game areas but in particular in the attitude, drive and hunger stakes.

Storm

Last Word : Tipping the Storm’s clinical, disciplined approach to set the foundation,  also think they have an edge in a few areas and when it maters might well be driven by a unique fire in their belly.

Betting Interest : No need to get to clever, Storm at the line -2.5 and then play a few exotic options of your choice (try scorers, man of the match, etc).

 

Betting Interests

The Storm were nominated here back on the 1st of Feb as our anchor bet for the season at $9 for the title. For those who followed I’d suggest you might save a little on the Bulldogs to cover your outlay and let the rest roll. For anyone looking for additional betting interests I’ve listed the following options.

Anchor Bet – Storm line -1.5 $1.91

Chance your arm – Storm Tri bet Over 6.5 $2.75

But I bleed Blue – Bulldogs H2H $2.10 or Margin 1-12 $3.20

Man Of The Match – Back three players, Cameron Smith $8, Ryan Hoffman $13, James Graham $13

First Try Scorer / Last Try Scorer –  A Winger, Centre of Fullback has been FTS in 7 of last 9 GF’s & LTS in 6 of last 9. Based on that Morris, Barba or Wright for the Bulldogs and or O’Neill, Chambers or Waqa for the Storm.

 

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©Copyright Reading The Play All care taken. No responsibility accepted. Please check all information at your own discretion. Any prices quoted for suggested bets are accurate at the time of writing. For personal use ONLY. This information may not be reproduced in any way whatsoever or re-used for any purpose whatsoever without the prior written permission of Reading The Play.