Round 13 Preview & Betting Advice NRL 2012

Round 13 Preview NRL 2012

Titans v Cowboys

Gold Coast : Friday 7.30pm

Titans have won their last two away (Bulldogs, Knights), return home but their record here is very poor winning just 1 of their last 13. Cowboys remain on the road with their second away game, they are 4 from 6 away this yr and have won all four outside of Sydney. H2H, the recent record between the two of them is pretty even. The quality of the Titans form is a little tricky to read; it is winning form and that will breed further confidence however the Bulldogs looked very flat and off their game 3 weeks ago, the Knights then just plain soft last weekend with questionable substance in a number of the tries the Titans scored. Back at home this game should tell us a lot more. Cowboys have won 3 of their last 4, they were close for a long time last week (Tigers) in what looks a strong form game. With them sitting in the middle of a congested top half of the ladder, they’ll be keen to head into their bye next week in winning form. The Cowboys best is a few levels above anything that we have seen from the Titans and I expect them to aim up to that again. Cowboys

Last Word : Cowboys are yet to lose two games back to back, anything near their best should be good enough here.

Betting Interest : With the Cowboys back to back on the road this is not  a game that I intend playing in, but the best options would be the Cowboys at the short line.

Eagles v Dragons

Brookvale : Friday 7.30pm

I would suggest a lot of caution with this game. It’s got more twists and turns to it than it looks. Brookvale is a significant advantage for the Eagles having won 13 of their last 14 here, but they have lost their last 4 straight and 12 of their last 15 H2H against the Dragons while the Dragons away record has fallen away dramatically through the last 12 months having now won only one of their last 11 on the road (and that was by one point). Further still the likely line ups and readiness to play for the home side has just as many questions over it, the Eagles have the two Stewarts playing their third game in nine days, King, K Foran and Watmough returning from injury and they lose Matai (and remain without D and T Williams). I’m not sure how strongly the hunger burns with the Eagles this year having climbed the mountain in 2011. Their depth looks decidedly thinner as well and these issues were again on show last weekend in their poor offering against the Panthers. For the time being I’d take them on trust. They may well win here but $1.45 rolled gold good things they are not. The Dragons have their own issues, their attack lacks quality leadership up front, an insistence in playing sideways and too few points on the scoreboard. They too are desperately looking to rediscover some quality winning form. A game best left alone, the Eagles might be good enough to get away with this at home but given the numerous issues that they are currently wrestling with a Dragons upset would not surprise. Eagles

Last Word : Eagles, only because it’s at Brookvale.   

Betting Interest : The only bet options you could entertain is to be taking the Dragons with a line like +8.5.  

Raiders v Tigers

Canberra : Saturday 5.30pm

The Raiders may well be lucky and have a cold and miserable evening at home and the return of Dugan and Ferguson in their favour here as right now they appear to need anything they can find to be working for them. They have lost five of their last seven at the ground and 7 of their last 8 H2H while the Tigers have enjoyed a good run at the ground themselves winning their last four here. Dugan is a key in for the Raiders, and they have bitten the bullet and named him at 6 which could well prove a positive move as he does have class and could well sharpen their attack especially on their favoured left side. More importantly they need to be doing something about their defensive problems on that same side (left) where Croker and the combinations inside and outside of him (which continues to change) have struggled, the Rabbits another to expose and exploit this last week. Sadly, they continue to leak near 30 points a week which you can’t win with.  While the Tigers have won their last five straight I would only rate their last three halves as having had any semblance of quality but there is that improvement and they are also better for the return of key players. The Tigers at their recent best should have a kicking game and field position to play the Raiders under consistent pressure. They’ve also the attacking smarts to create some opportunity through the middle and or pepper the Raiders left edge. The Raiders have to be very desperate at 4 from 11, their effort two starts back against the Eagles showed some grit and promise but they have to be taken on trust. Visitors look the obvious. Tigers

Last Word : Tigers should win, but I do expect the Raiders to improve at home and with the return of Dugan.

Betting Interest : Not a  game I want to bet on, but the Tigers look the way if you want to play.

Bulldogs v Rabbits

Homebush : Saturday 7.30pm

Great contest on Saturday night which should attract a big support crowd and atmosphere. The Bulldogs have a few hurdles here; Eastwood is out and there is some doubt over Kasiano (but expected to play). They are off a Monday night back up, off the physical Roosters and into their third game in 12 days.  Although winning well enough through the second half last Monday night I did think it was quite noticeable that the big Roosters forwards had made considerable yardage through the middle, and in turn had physically given the Bulldogs a fair working over which I think sets them up to be quite vulnerable here. There is a lot to like about what they are doing, in particular the quality of their attack, but they may also carry some tired bodies into this. The Rabbits also come through a strong run of form winning their last four, with Inglis in sensational touch, they have the skill at 9 and 1 to open the tempo and speed of this game up to their advantage. There is an issue of some lazy defensive periods where they drop their concentration and they’ve been good enough to get themselves out of trouble a few times but it is something that they do need to change. Regardless of the games billing I think the Bulldogs are a major risk this week. I also like the Rabbits recent attack and they’ve shown a liking to lift for these key games (Sharks, Cowboys). I think they can aim up again. Rabbits

Last Word : Good contest, Rabbits might get their opponents at the right time.  

Betting Interest : Happy to back the Rabbits here H2H.  

 

Warriors v Storm

Auckland : Sunday 2pm

I don’t think the Storm get everything to suit here. If there has been one side who has troubled them through recent years it has been the Warriors, the record evenly split at three each through their last six, importantly the Warriors now hold a healthy home ground advantage having now won nine of their last 10 here. As we know the Warriors have a big physical pack of forwards (and support bench) and when focused on the task can dominate through the middle and set themselves up winning positions, again witnessed through their first 40 minute domination (or rag doll) effort over the Tigers two weeks ago. But, as we then saw, they can be prone to dumb errors which invite their opponent back into the game. From half time onwards the combination of two penalties and two handling errors saw the Tigers then dominate possession with 12 of the first 14 sets of 6 with the ball and an 18 point turn around. The Storm are troubled when worn over through the middle. They fell into a mid field slug out against the Warriors a number of weeks ago in Melbourne and it wasn’t until late that they then got the upper hand, they now have four key forward outs which has really thinned their forward list of size and depth (Norrie, Manu, Proctor and Greenfield all out) and I think left them very vulnerable. I think the Warriors hold the key to this game; they are at their best at home, they have the physical list to make an impact and set themselves up, they just need to retain their composure and discipline for an 80 minute effort. I think they can, their recent scalps here includes the Broncos and Rabbits. There is always some degree of risk with them but I’m game this week. Warriors

Last Word : Warriors discipline is always a risk but they have a considerable forward advantage here which I think will get them home.

Betting Interest : Best way to play the Warriors is with a line start, I suggest you take something like +7.5, you might want to also spec the value with H2H price.

Broncos v Knights

Brisbane : Sunday 3pm

Keen on the Broncos here. They come off three defeats but will return to full strength with key inclusions of Thaiday and Hodges. They have a 9 day turn around off their Origin and away games and importantly play at home where they have an imposing record (winning 12 of their last 14). They have won eight of the last 13 H2H v the Knights, the last three straight, while the Knights have lost their last three at the ground and have a 41% away record. Clearly the Knights are in a lot of trouble at four from 11, leaking near 30 at most of their recent starts. Worse still, the majority of the tries that the Titans scored against them last weekend looked incredibly soft. Buderus for mine looks to be again carrying injury (if indeed he plays). They are down on confidence, distant away game, against a side that can hurt you with ball play and shift. I think the Broncos will go bang here and make a bit of a statement, when in the right mood they can blow an opponent away very quickly (Dragons, Raiders), I expect something similar here. Broncos

Last Word : Broncos look the best of the round, I think they’ll win well.

Betting Interest : The margin 13+ or a similar line look the right plays (already heavily supported), it may well get ugly.  

 

Eels v Sharks

Parramatta : Monday 7pm

We were close with the Eels last week and they certainly got their chance but even at home this looks a far tougher assignment. At home the Eels have been poor losing seven of their last eight. They’ve also lost six of their last eight against the Sharks while the visitors have won five of their last six at the ground. While the Eels were close last week I have a number of concerns out of that game. Firstly the let down of having built themselves up, getting so close but still no result; their poor attack execution has to be a worry, they had enough ball and field position to win three games yet had no idea what to do with it. Also, it looked to my eye that Hindmarsh was carrying a leg injury of some sort through the back end of that game. If they were to lose him prior to or during this then the task gets even harder. Sharks came off a rich vein of form (including the Storm) with a poor, flat effort against the Rabbits prior to their bye. I have no doubt that that will have sharpened them up for this. Importantly they get Gallen and Carney back, the latter will improve their kicking game and attack options and I’m sure he’ll be out to play well off the back of his disappointing Origin offering. The Sharks defend well, they have a long, quality kicking game, a smart attack play with ball play and off loads, all of which I think spells trouble for the Eels this week. Some weeks are not the right week to get a particular opponent, I think that’s the case here. Sharks

Last Word : Keen on the Sharks, I expect them to aim up and be back in winning form.

Betting Interest : Like the Sharks at what for mine looks a short line.

Recommended Bets

3 units Rabbits H2H $1.85

4 units Warriors Line +7.5 $1.67

4 units Broncos Margin 13+ $1.91          BEST BET

4 units Sharks Line -5.5 $1.91          BEST BET

4 units Broncos Line -7.5 $1.47 x Sharks  H2H $1.50

4 units Broncos Margin 13+ $1.91 x Sharks Line -5.5 $1.91

All recommended bets are listed with –

1) a confidence rating (between 1 and 5, with 5 being the highest) and

2) a staking rating (up to 5 units)

The total weekly bet outlay will vary each week but is likely to be approximately 20 odd units. My recommendation is that you 1) settle on a weekly unit dollar outlay that suits your weekly betting bank, and then 2) bet consistently to the listed weekly recommended bets.

Best Bets. An additional approach and bank can be used to bet nominated Best Bets, either with a level stake or with the suggested unit outlay.

Results : Year To Date

All Bets

2012 Bets Winners % Units Bet Units Return Profit / Loss POT %
YTD 67 30 44.78% 198 225.30 27.3 13.79%
R 12 6 2 33.33% 23 12.72 (10.28) (44.70)%

Best Bet

2012 Bets Winners % Units Bet Units Return Profit / Loss POT %
YTD 10 9 90% 41 64.73 23.73 57.88%
R 12 1 1 100% 4 6.56 2.56 64.00%

POT = Profit On Turnover                  A full table of week to week results is available on the website.

Bet Prices: Nominated beside each bet is the price taken at the time of finalising this information (and will then be used when updating all results). Don’t hesitate to look around and obtain the best possible price and or option of your choice.

Alternative Line or Bet types: A broad range of alternate or pick your own lines or betting types are now available from all betting agencies. I chose to consider all options to suit each game and final betting recommendation, including the use of shorter and or longer lines, margins, tri bet or similar and suggest that members look to do the same so as to potentially frame your bet options to your possible advantage.

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