NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting | Round 26

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting | Round 26

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 26 2016 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-14.5 Broncos vs Roosters

-2.5 Bulldogs vs Rabbits

-12.5 Dragons vs Knights

-14.5 Cowboys vs Titans

-5.5 Storm vs Sharks

+4.5 Tigers vs Raiders

-4.5 Warriors vs Eels

-14.5 Panthers vs Eagles


NRL Round 26 Recommended Bet List

Bet 3 units Broncos -10.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet

Bet 2 units Broncos -12.5 $1.92 CrownBet / William Hill or 13+ elsewhere

Bet 2 units Bulldogs-Rabbits under 36 $1.85 Luxbet / 35.5 CrownBet / Bet365

Bet 3 units Cowboys -9.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet

Bet 3 units Panthers -8.5 $1.90 CrownBet / William Hill BB

Notes: With 9 teams still playing for final top 8 spots including the importance of either top 4 (double chance) or a home semi final we have key games where we know teams are playing to win. I see three games where those in form and playing at home should have a decided form advantage. Broncos certainly put their hand up last week with an impressive offering, they have the advantage of a 7 day turn around into an opponent who rolled over poorly in the 2nd this week and now face a short 5 day turn around into an interstate away game. The Cowboys also have an additional 2 day prep advantage this week and as we know hold a commanding advantage at home, the Titans have been very good but look busted, tired, have to travel and up against it. The Panthers are rolling along nicely, they too return home and should have too much skill and ball movement for an Eagles side busted with injury, likely to have further player outs and season’s end can’t come quick enough.

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Bulldogs, Dragons, Cowboys, Storm, Raiders, Eels, Panthers


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Broncos vs Roosters

-14.5 Broncos

Stats

The Broncos and Roosters kick off the final Round of 2016 in what will be Corey Parker’s final game of the regular season at Suncorp Stadium. The Roosters ran out big winners when these sides met just 5 weeks ago but the Broncos haven’t been beaten since, going a 4 game winning run. Brisbane holds a 25-17 all-time advantage over the Roosters who have reduced the deficit in recent meetings, having won 4 of the last 6 clashes. They have also won 4 of the previous 6 meetings at Suncorp Stadium, but the 2 losses have come from their 2 most recent visits to the venue, including a 19 point loss in last year’s Preliminary Final. The Roosters are coming off their biggest loss in 3 months and have nothing to play for, while the Broncos are coming off their best win of the season to keep alive their slim hopes of a Top 4 finish. Brisbane is 5 th with a 14-9 win loss record, while they are ranked 5th in attack and 4th in defence. They have won 9 of 11 against sides in the bottom half of the ladder, while their last 2 wins have been against Top 6 counterparts. The Broncos have won 9 of 12 at Suncorp Stadium this season to make it 20 wins from 26 matches at the ground since the return of Wayne Bennett. They are 11-12 ATS and have now covered in their last 3 straight, while they have a 7-5 cover record at Suncorp in 2016. In TMP’s they are 12-11 in favour of the Over, with 4 of their last 5 at home all finishing that way, while 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Roosters have also finished Over. Brisbane is 14-2 with a half time lead, while they have lost 8 from 8 when trailing at the break. Tom Opacic has been the 1st try scorer of the match in his last 2 matches. After securing 3 consecutive Minor Premierships, the Roosters fall from grace has been dramatic, they are in 15th spot and are set for their lowest finish since 2009. They have won only 6 of their 23 matches and recorded just the 1 win from 11 away games, losing their last 8 straight on the road. The Roosters are 13th in attack and in defence, with a differential that rates 14th. They have lost 12 of 14 against the Top 8, ironically both of those wins were against last year’s grand Finalists and both of those wins were with the home ground advantage. The Roosters are 9-14 ATS and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 8 games on the road, while they have also failed to cover in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Broncos. In TMP’s they are 16-7 in favour of the Over, with 7 of their last 9 finishing that way, while they are 9-4 Over as a road outsider since 2014. The Roosters have lost 12 from 12 this season when trailing at half time and have converted 6 of 9 when in front at the break. The 1st try of the match has been scored by the 8th minute in 8 of the roosters last 9 games.

Preview

Broncos certainly bounced up with a quality win and effort last week in Melbourne. They had been on the improve but I hadn’t expected that size of improvement into that opponent or away venue, Bennett is just a bloody master at this game and getting his teams right when it matters. I was asked on radio during the week where and why I thought such improvement had come from, I think its a few factors coming together at the right time. They have got key players back through recent weeks, notably on their left edge where they had been in all sorts of trouble; Opacic who Bennett has had to blood quickly and get some games into at left centre has come up; he has reshuffled to effect his forward line up and left edge with Thaiday now playing there (had always been a right edge player) and Alex Glenn coming off the bench (noted starting player and left edge player); clearly come off a tapered fitness program into September, and clearly growing in confidence off recent wins albeit against weaker form lines. But, all said and done while I could see improvement they kifted to a new level of motivation and execution last Friday, a high quality win. Makes for a great finals series!

Roosters have lost two key players into this, and already have thin depth and are playing kids in some key positions. They now lose their best player in Boyd Cordner and then also key forward and goal kicker in Sio Sia Taukeiaho, they have lost 12 of their last 14 games against Top 8 sides and now lost 10 of their last 11 Away games – some very poor key stats into a game vs 5th on table and away venue. They led 12-0 last week vs the Sharks and I though had them in some deep trouble, but rolled over ever so meekly in the second half. I think that last 40 mins plus these key outs all but puts an end to their season and while they’ll try I’m not so sure how long they stay in this game.

Broncos on a positive roll, week out from finals, can then sew up 5th spot and play into some further positive combination. Like the Broncos here.

Further advice is that Kenny-Dowall will also be a late out for Roosters today, further weakening their list and offering.

Bet 3 units Broncos -10.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet

Bet 2 units Broncos -12.5 $1.92 CrownBet / William Hill or 13+ elsewhere


Bulldogs vs Rabbits

-2.5 Bulldogs

Stats

The out of form Bulldogs and the inform Rabbitohs face off in the final Friday night fixture of the regular season. The Dogs are in desperate need of a win to gain some momentum heading into the Finals, while the Bunnies are looking to make it 4 consecutive wins for the 1st time in 2016 and end their season on a positive note. The Rabbitohs had won 5 of 6 including the 2014 Grand Final before the Dogs went back to back in the 2 most recent encounters. Wins have been shared equally from the last 10 meetings, while the Bulldogs hold a strong all-time advantage at ANZ Stadium, winning 15 of 23. The Dogs have now dropped to 6th and a loss could see them finish 7th if other results go against them. They are ranked 7th in attack and 5th in defence but since Round 20, those rankings have dropped to 15th and 9th respectively. Canterbury have won 7 of their last 8 matches played at ANZ Stadium, while they have also won their last 8 matches against sides in the bottom half of the ladder. The Dogs are now the worst cover team in the NRL, with a 7-16 record ATS and they have failed to cover in their last 8 straight, while they have also failed to cover in 9 of their last 10 as a home underdog. In TMP’s they are 12-11 Under, with 5 of their last 6 finishing that way, while 5 of their last 7 at ANZ Stadium have gone Over. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Rabbitohs. Consider Curtis Rona in try scorer calculations as he has scored in his last 3 matches against Souths and he has also scored 22 tries from 25 matches at ANZ Stadium. Souths are in 13th spot and will miss the Finals for the 1st time under Michael Maguire. They have an 8-15 record, with an attack and defence that both rank 12th. They have won only 1 of 10 matches against a Top 8 opponent, while they have lost 7 of their last 9 matches played at ANZ Stadium. The Rabbitohs are 10-13 ATS but have covered in their last 4 as a road dog, while they have only covered in 2 of their last 9 at Homebush. In TMP’s they are 14-9 in favour of the Overs, with a 7-3 Over record at ANZ Stadium. The Rabbitohs have conceded 25 tries through their middle third this season, which is the most of any club. TMP’s have finished Overs in 9 of the last 11 night games with Ashley Klein in charge.

Preview

The only thing to like about this game is the weather forecast, with a 50 mms downpour forecast for all day Friday across Sydney, onto a ground we already know can be damp and slippery.

I think the key form factor here is this – Bulldogs have won last 8 straight vs sides in bottom half of ladder, Souths have won just 1 of their last 8 against Top 8.

The Bulldogs have been very poor through recent weeks against good teams around them on the table in the Broncos and then Cowboys, once again their handling and halves execution has let them down, but they do seem to get the job done when against those in the bottom half of the table. And surely a week out for finals footy they have more to be playing for here. Rabbits have been good and found some winning form including beating the Sharks in wet conditions here, but then flogging the Knights is no reference as we know, they have Inglis in some doubt and or carrying injury and realistically into their last game of the season it’s not hard to mentally start to drop your focus knowing its about to all be over.

Slight lean to Bulldogs, but with the likely heavy wet weather I want to be with the unders, we saw similar conditions and bet accordingly two weeks ago at this ground to see only 18 points scored, I’m hoping for a repeat of something similar.

Bet 2 units Bulldogs-Rabbits under 36 $1.85 Luxbet / 35.5 CrownBet / Bet365


Dragons vs Knights

-12.5 Dragons

Stats

Super Saturday gets under way in what shapes as an absolute bludger when the 2 worst attacking teams in the competition go head to head at Jubilee Oval in a match that has no relevance what so ever. The Dragons have won 8 of the last 10 clashes with the Knights which indicates how bad Newcastle is travelling. The Knights have lost their last 3 visits to Jubilee Oval, with their last win at the ground back in 2009. They have spent a total of 18 weeks in 16th place with a season high of 14th, while their attack and defence are the worst in the NRL era. They have lost 17 straight with just 1 win and a draw for the season and they have conceded 26 points or more in 10 of their last 11. Their last 6 losses have all been by 13+ with an average losing margin of 24 points, while they have failed to score more than 6 1st half points in 8 of their last 9. Newcastle is 8-15 ATS and has covered in only 2 of 9 on the road with a double digit advantage, while they have failed to cover in their last 3 against the Dragons. They are 13-10 Over in TMP’s with 7 of their 11 away games finishing that way and 6 of those have totaled 52 or more. Only twice all season have the Knights posted a score of 20 points or more, while they have conceded fewer than 20 on just 2 occasions. The Knights have conceded the 1st try in 20 of their 23 matches. The Dragons story doesn’t read a whole lot better, with 7 losses from their last 8 matches, including 3 losses from their last 4 at home. They have however, won 8 of their last 11 at Jubilee Oval, while they have also won 13 of their last 17 as a home favourite. The Dragons are 11th with a defence that ranks 10th, while both their attack and differential are the 2nd worst in the NRL. They are 11-12 ATS and have covered in 7 of their 11 home games, while they have covered in 5 of their last 6 at Kogorah. In TMP’s they are 15-8 in favour of the Unders, but their last 3 have all topped 48. Like the Knights, the Dragons have also struggled for points and in their last 8 matches they have averaged just 4 1st half points. The Dragons are unbeaten this season with a half time lead, winning 8 from 8, while they have lost 14 of 15 when trailing at half time. In the 6 meetings from 2011 – 2013 the TMP’s finished Unders, at an average of 27, but 3 of the 4 most recent clashes have totaled 48 or more. The home sides has lost the last 7 matches with Henry Perenara in charge.

Preview

If Dragons have any real gumption or pride then back at home, last game, under enormous focus they should win. They have won 7 of their last 8 vs Knights but have only won just 1 of last 8 games and in all of those 8 last 8 games have only surpassed 12 pts just twice. But, they do come through a much harder form line and surely this is the major drop in grade and break through opportunity for them to finish a disappointing and ugly season with.

The Knights have lost their last 17 straight, an ugly record, their last 6 losses have all been by margins 13+ with an average losing margin of 24 points and they travel here which has also been a major negative. They may have some advantage with the Dragons off a short 5 day turn around (Monday) but I still have this a 12 to 14 point advantage to the home side.

Nothing to like about the game, Dragons should win.


Cowboys vs Titans

-14.5 Cowboys

Stats

A Queensland derby with huge implications for both sides when the Titans travel to Townsville to take on the Cowboys. The Cowboys need a win to secure a spot in the Top 4, while a win for the Titans will sure up their spot in the 8, if the Titans lose they will be sweating on the Raiders defeating the Tigers to ensure they still qualify for their 1st Final Series since 2010. Both sides have 8 wins from the 16 clashes, while wins have also been shared equally from the last 10 encounters, but the Cowboys have won 5 of the last 6 meetings at 1300SMILES Stadium. The Cowboys moved back into the Top 4 after last week’s road win over the Dogs and they are now back at home where they have won 10 of 11 in 2016. They have the 3rd best attack, while their defence and differential both rank 2nd. North Queensland is 5 & 5 against the Top 8 sides, while they have won 4 of 5 against sides ranked 5th to 8th. They are 12-11 ATS and have covered in 7 of their last 8 at home when laying more than a converted try. In TMP’s they are 14-9 in favour of the Unders and 7 of their last 8 have finished that way, while 6 of their last 7 against a Top 8 opponent have also gone Under. The Cowboys are a perfect 13 from 13 with a half time lead and have trailed at the break in only 2 of their last 13 at home. The Titans have been the Cinderella story of the NRL this season with many tipping them to be a bottom 4 outfit. They are clinging to 8th spot on 27 points with an 11-11-1 record, while they have an attack and defence that both rank 9th. They have won 5 of their last 7 on the road and 3 of their last 4 as a road dog. The Titans have struggled for wins against their Top 8 counterparts, with only 2 wins from 10 matches. They are 16-7 ATS, the best cover record in the NRL and have covered in 11 of their last 12 when getting a start, while they have covered in their last 5 straight as a road dog when getting a start of more than a converted try. In TMP’s they are 13-10 Under, including their last 5 straight, while 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Cowboys in Townsville have also finished Under. The Titans are a perfect 8 from 8 with a half time lead, but have won only 2 of 12 when trailing at the break. The home team has won 16 of the last 19 matches with Matt Cecchin at the helm.

Preview

Pressure game for both sides with much in play, but for mine far more for Titans. A Cowboys win sews up 4th spot and the double chance to then defend their title, so they have plenty to play for and motivation should be no issue. As we know they have an outstanding home track record (won 10 of their last 11), and come off some recent winning form and like the Broncos look to have their run into September tapered and tailored nicely. They will be with out Scott but get Hannant back, and have some quality depth.

The Titans have an ask, a distant away game to a tough venue with a win then ensuring 8th spot, but even with a loss should the Tigers be rolled they still make it. Their record against the point end of the table is not good with just 2 wins from their last 10 matches when against Top 8 sides. In short this probably says it all, they have had a super season, achieved well above everyone’s expectation, have been the form underdog for much of the season, but have struggled to beat the good ones and that’s what they now face here.

The Cowboys have the 3rd best attack and 2nd best defence and I expect that should be the path again through this game. The Titans can leak 22 pts a game on the road, while the Cowboys consistently only concede 11 points a game at home. The Cowboys are building nicely, Thurston in particular growing his form and leadership, I think they can win, have a bit to now play for and do so by 10 points or more.

Bet 3 units Cowboys -9.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet


Storm vs Sharks

-5.5 Storm

Stats

The fight for the Minor Premiership will be decided at AAMI Park when the Storm play host to the Sharks in a top of the table block buster. Melbourne has a dominate record over Cronulla, having won 10 of the previous 12 encounters and the Sharks are yet to defeat the Storm at AAMI Park, losing 6 straight, while they haven’t won in Melbourne since 2008. The Storm is coming off just their 2nd home loss of the season and only twice in 85 matches at AAMI Park have they lost back to back games. Melbourne is also undefeated in their final home game of the regular season since the year 2000. They come into this match with 2 losses from their last 3 matches but remain on top of the ladder with the 4th best attack and the best defensive record in the NRL, still only conceding an average of 12.9 PPG, while their 241 point differential is also the best in the competition. Melbourne has a 6-4 record against their Top 8 rivals, while they have won 13 of their last 16 as a home favourite. They are 12-11 ATS, but have failed to cover in 3 of their last 4 at home, while they have also failed to cover in 5 of their last 6 at home when laying a start of more than a converted try. In TMP’s they remain as the Number 1 Unders side in the comp, with a 16-7 result, including 5 of their last 7, while they are 7-2 under against their Top 8 counterparts. A Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in 11 of the last 12 meetings with the Sharks who have conceded 1st points in 3 of their last 4. The Storm has won 15 of 16 this season with a half time lead, while they have a 92% conversion rate at AAMI Park when they have led at the break. The Sharks returned to the winners list last week after going winless for a month but they remain in 2nd place with a chance of securing just their 3rd Minor Premiership in their 50 year history and their 1st since 1999. They have a 6-4-1 record away from home this season and have failed to win their last 3 on the road. Cronulla average just 9 points a game against Melbourne from the last 12 clashes and they haven’t scored more than 6 1 st half points in any of those matches. They have spent 16 weeks in the top 2 spots with the 2nd best attack and a defence and differential that both rank 3rd. The Sharks are 13-10 ATS, but have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5, while they have also failed to cover in their last 3 on the road. In TMP’s they are 12-11 Under but have gone Over in 3 of their last 4, while they are 14-7 Over in night games away from home since 2014. The Sharks have won 12 of 15 with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 4 of 7. The home side has covered the line in the last 7 night matches with Gerard Sutton in charge.

Preview

Clearly a cracking game. The Storm hold some advantage with the game being at Home where they very rarely lose 2 in a row, and they hold a nice long term advantage over the Sharks winning 10 of the last 12. They are also getting two key forwards back. The Sharks broke back for a win last week but the second half effort of the Roosters was very poor, so that quality doesn’t read that well.

The key to the game is how the Sharks look to play this. The Storm don’t like being belted physically through the middle (as we saw a few weeks ago vs Raiders) and the Sharks are another who can play tough and physical and work them over. They also wrestle well, and have plenty of niggle in them, which can well frustrate the Storm. But, with all of this the Sharks have plenty of ill discipline and can give away numerous penalties and cost themselves advantage, they’ll need to get the balance right. The Storm also have some defensive issues on both edges, something the Sharks have the strengths and brains to target and exploit.

Looks a tough hard close physical arm wrestle. I have a slight lean to the Storm at home and their experience with these semi final styled games, but looks a great contest.


Tigers vs Raiders

+4.5 Tigers

Stats

The only match of the Round featuring 2 last start winners sees the Tigers hosting the Raiders at Leichardt Oval. Depending on the results of earlier matches, the outcome of this game could have major implications for both sides, with the Tigers looking to take the final spot in the Top 8 and the Raiders aiming for a Top 2 finish. The Raiders put the cleaners through the Tigers when they last met in Round 6, with Canberra scoring their biggest ever win over the Tigers in a 54 point thrashing. Canberra has won 3 of the last 4 meetings and a win in this match will be the 1st time in 10 years that they have swept the Tigers in a season. The have won 9 in a row (their longest winning run since 1995), including winning their last 4 on the road. They are the best attacking side in the NRL, averaging 28 points a game, while they are ranked 6th in defence, giving them a 190 point differential that rates 4th. The Raiders have won 9 of 12 against those in the bottom half of the ladder and they haven’t been beaten by a bottom 8 opponent since Round 10. They are 15-8 ATS and have covered in their last 6 away games, while they have also covered in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Tigers. In TMP’s they have had more Overs results than any other side in the competition, producing a 17-6 result, with 10 of their last 12 finishing that way. The Raiders are also a big Overs side in day games, going 13-2 Over in 2016, with a 32-10 record in day games since 2014. Canberra is unbeaten in their last 11 matches with a half time lead, while they have overcome a half time deficit in 4 of 9. Jordan Rapana scored 4 tries in the last meeting with the Tigers. The Tigers defied the odds last week to keep their finals hopes alive but will need to improve significantly on that performance if they are any chance of defeating the Raiders. The Tigers have been a 50/50 proposition at Leichardt Oval since 2013, winning only 8 of their 16 matches at the ground, while they have lost 9 of 12 this season against a Top 8 opponent. They have 14th ranked defence, while their attack ranks 10th, giving them a differential of -66 that also ranks 10th. The Tigers have won 4 of their last 5 at home and have a 5-4 record at home in 2016 as an underdog. They are 13-10 ATS and have covered in 8 of their last 10, while they have covered in their last 5 straight at Leichardt Oval when getting a start. The Tigers also have a 13-10 record in TMP’s which is in favour of the Overs and 5 of their last 7 at Leichardt have also finished Over, while they are 6- 2 Under in day games at home this season. Last week was the 1st time this season that the Tigers were able to overcome a half time deficit, having lost 8 from 8 previously, while they have won 10 of 13 when leading at the break.

Preview

Key to this game will be if Sharks have lost and 2nd spot is open for the Raiders, and if the Titans are beat then the Tigers have 8th spot to play for. The Tigers were plucky last week and finished the game strongly late but against an opponent who laid down terribly. Leichhardt is a nice advantage here but I dependent on how fair dinkum the Raiders are there are certainly questions on how the match up in the middle and the potency of their attack without Tedesco. I don’t think Stuart will rest many players, and while he won’t have them wound up they will still be playing with combination and confidence. Lots of ifs and buts, does look a game of points, lean to Raiders but a game best watched.


Warriors vs Eels

-4.5 Warriors

Stats

The 2nd and final match of the Round that has no impact on the makeup of the Top 8 sees Parramatta travel to New Zealand to take on the Warriors. The Eels hold a 19-16 all-time advantage over the Warriors who have won the last 3 match ups and the last 5 straight at Mt Smart Stadium. Both sides have had forgettable seasons which have been the norm in recent times, with neither of these 2 sides having featured in a Final Series for the last 5 years. The Warriors have lost 3 in a row, conceding 34 points or more in all of those losses, while they have lost their last 4 against sides in the bottom of the 8. They are currently 10th on the ladder, with an attack that ranks 8 th, while they are now the 2nd worst defensive team in the competition, conceding an average of 24 PPG. As has been the case for several years, the Warriors made a charge through the Origin period, winning 4 of 5 between their Bye Rounds to sit 7th after 18 Rounds, but that was as high as they got, spending a total of just 5 weeks in the Top 8 all season. The Warriors are 10-13 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 3, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 5 at Mt Smart Stadium. They have also failed to cover in 7 of their last 8 as a favourite. In TMP’s they are 13-10 Over, with their last 2 at home topping 60, while 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Eels have also finished Overs. A Warriors try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 3 clashes with the Eels, while the team to score the 1st try of the match has won 12 of the previous 13 encounters. The Eels have lost 5 of their last 7 and will be looking to end their horror season with back to back wins and if they can, it will be the 1st time since 2005 that they have won their final 2 games of the regular season. They have struggled on the road in recent times though, losing their last 5 straight away from home. Despite their 14th position on the ladder, the Eels have a 12-11 win loss record, with 7 of those wins coming from 9 games against sides in the bottom half of the ladder. Parramatta is 14-9 ATS, with a 7-4 cover record on the road, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 as a road dog getting more than a 6 point advantage. In TMP’s they are 13-10 in favour of the Under, but have had Overs results in their last 3 straight, while they have also gone Overs in 5 of their last 6 away from home.

Preview

The Warriors are once again a disgrace, pea hearts at when it matters toward season end. They have lost their last 3 leaking soft points, and have lost their last 4 games against bottom 8 sides, they fold under pressure quicker than a 3 legged card table. The Eels opened +10.5 on this game and it’s now +4.5, that’s what the punters now think of the Warriors… I like the Eels, they come off a positive win, will be looking to continue that here, they have some physical presence and then preparedness to play with the ball which should favour them against this opponent, and a likely high scoring game. Eels to win but nothing else doing.


Panthers vs Eagles

-14.5 Panthers

Stats

After 191 games, we have now reached the final match of the regular season when the Panthers host the Sea Eagles from Pepper Stadium. The Panthers are on a winning run, with 6 wins from their last 7 matches and their Finals spot secured, while they have also won 5 of the previous 6 clashes with the Sea Eagles. For Manly, it’s been a long season that will end here as they look to avoid 5 consecutive losses. Recent meetings have been reasonably close contests, with the 5 matches since 2013 all decided by a margin of 1-12 points, while the Panthers have won 3 of the last 4 match ups at Pepper Stadium. Penrith are in 7th spot, with the 6th best attack and the 8th rated defence, giving them a 70 point differential that ranks 7th. They have won 9 of 12 against a bottom 8 opponent, winning the last 3 of those by 20, 36 and 30 points respectively. The Panthers have scored 30 points or more in 4 of their last 6 and last week was the 1st time in 7 matches that they have been outscored in the 2nd half. Penrith are 13-10 ATS with a 9-3 cover record against the bottom 8, while they have covered in their last 6 against the Sea Eagles. In TMP’s the Panthers are 12-11 Over, with 7 of their last 9 versus the bottom 8 totaling 48 or more, while 4 of their last 6 at pepper Stadium have totaled 50 or more. The Panthers have won their last 7 matches with a half time lead, but have lost 7 of 11 when trailing at the break. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak has been the last try scorer of the match in the previous 2 clashes with the Sea Eagles. The Sea Eagles are in 12th spot and have been out of finals contention for number of weeks and only once this season have they been positioned in the Top 8. Both their attack and defence rank 12th, while their negative 81 differential rates 12th. They have lost their last 10 straight against the Top 8 and they have lost 6 of their last 7 on the road. In their last 3 matches the Sea Eagles have conceded a combined total of 102 points and only once in their last 7 matches have they won the 2nd half. Manly are 10-13 ATS and have failed to cover in 3 of their last 4, but they have covered in 5 of their last 6 on the road when getting a start of 8 points or more. In TMP’s they are 12-11 Under, with 6 of their last 8 on the road finishing that way. The Sea Eagles have a 6-2 record with a half time lead, while they have won only 2 of 14 when trailing at the break. Dylan Walker has scored 3 tries in his last 2 games against the Panthers.

Preview

If the Panthers want to put in here then they could really make a mess of this. I am leaning to the expectation that they will, as it is also just in their nature to be free flowing, ball playing attack focused given their youth and talent, and they meet a weak opponent riddled with injuries and now lacking any desire on their home track. The Eagles play games every week with the naming of their team list yet in the last 24 hrs they have now made noises of 3 likely outs to add to their already long list. While they scored some points last week it was an open game more akin to touch footy lacking any intensity. Now into their last game happy for their season to be over and with further outs they do look cannon fodder here.

The Panthers are assured of a semi final spot so there is some risk of complacency, but they come through a nice winning streak building confidence and combinations (especially their halves) and at home I still expect their natural game to create too much opportunity. They have now been well bet, we should have advantage with the position we have, lets now look for the Panthers to put their foot down and put this game (and margin) beyond doubt.

Bet 3 units Panthers -8.5 $1.90 CrownBet / William Hill BB



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 26

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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Published on in NRL.