NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 23

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 23

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 23 2016 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-3.5 Bulldogs vs Eagles

-12.5 Broncos vs Eels

0.0 Tigers vs Titans

-10.5 Warriors vs Rabbits

+8.5 Dragons vs Sharks

+14.5 Knights vs Panthers

+3.5 Raiders vs Storm


NRL Round 23 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Eagles +6.5 $1.93 Pinnacle

Bet 1 unit Titans H2H $2.01 Pinnacle

Bet 3 units all up Warriors $1.36 x Sharks $1.27 x Panthers $1.23 / $2.12 Pinnacle BB

Bet 3 units Panthers -11.5 $1.93 Pinnacle

With our all up now dead and -11.5 or -12.0 still available for Panthers today I am having 1 additional unit bet on that option.

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Eagles, Broncos, Titans, Warriors, Sharks, Panthers, Cowboys, Storm


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Bulldogs vs Eagles

-3.5 Bulldogs

Stats

Round 23 gets underway with 2 arch enemies adding another chapter to their recent rivalry when the Dogs host the Sea Eagles at ANZ Stadium. The Bulldogs have a dominant recent record over Manly, having won the last 5 straight and 8 of the last 10, which includes 3 of the last 4 meetings at ANZ Stadium. More often than not, these clashes have been closely fought, low scoring contests in recent years, with 7 of the last 11 matches decided by single figures, while only 2 of the previous 13 clashes have topped 44 points, with 8 of the last 11 meetings totaling less than 40. The Bulldogs come into this match with 6 wins from their last 7 games, which sees them move back into the Top 4. They are 5th in both attack and defence rankings while their 90 point differential also rates 5th. They have won 9 of their last 10 matches against a bottom 8 opponent and they have also won 6 of their last 7 games played at ANZ Stadium. Only once in their last 15 matches have the Dogs trailed at half time and they have also led at the break in the last 5 clashes with Manly. The Dogs have been a losing proposition ATS, producing a 7-13 result and have failed to cover in their last 5 straight. Canterbury is split evenly in TMP’s, with a 10-10 result, which has seen them go Over in 7 straight prior to going Under in their last 3, while 5 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium have all finished Over. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 9 of the last 11 clashes with the Sea Eagles while the 1st try of the match has not been scored until after the 7th minute in 8 of the last 10 meetings. Curtis Rona has scored 22 tries from 25 games at ANZ Stadium, but has failed to score in 2 of his last 3 at the ground. The Sea Eagles 4 game winning run came to an end last week and with that, it would appear so too did their chances of making the Top 8. They have lost 6 of 7 this season against the Top 6 sides and 3 of their last 4 matches are against sides currently sitting in the Top 4. Manly has lost 5 of their last 6 away games, 8 of their last 9 games as an underdog and they haven’t won at ANZ Stadium since losing the 2013 Grand Final. The Sea Eagles have been very good front runners, winning 6 of 8 with a half time lead, but have lost 9 of 11 when trailing at the break. Manly’s attack and differential both match their overall position of 11th, while their defence ranks 9th . They are 9-11 ATS but have covered in 5 of their last 6 and in 5 of their last 7 as a road outsider. In TMP’s they are 11-9 Under, with a 5-2 Under record on the road. Jorge Taufua has scored 5 tries from his last 5 games against the Bulldogs and is Manly’s leading try scorer with 10 tries from 14 appearances.

Preview

While the Bulldogs do have a healthy recent record over their opponent I just don’t like their form at present and think they a significant risk here. Legless wins over the Knights and Dragons have been very poor on quality formine. The Eagles are desperate,must win to stay in anyway touch with the finals, they get Lyon back and come through a formline at least similar to the Bulldogs. Looks a close tussle, far closer I think than the markets have it, I  want to be with the desperation of the Eagles and I think they can cause an upset and win outright.

Bet 1 unit Eagles +6.5 $1.93 Pinnacle


Broncos vs Eels

-12.5 Broncos

Stats

Friday night regulars, the Broncos, play host to the Parramatta Eels from Suncorp Stadium in 1 of only 2 matches this Round featuring 2 last start winners. Brisbane returned to the winners circle last week and will be looking for back to back wins for the 1st time since Round 8 and in the process, build some much needed momentum as they head towards the Finals. The Broncos have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Eels but will need to be wary as Parramatta has won 3 of the previous 5 meetings at Suncorp Stadium. Recent meetings have been close encounters with 6 of the last 8 matches decided by a margin of 1-12 points. After winning 6 straight at Suncorp Stadium, the Broncos have now lost 3 of their last 4 at the ground but they are unbeaten against sides currently ranked in the bottom 4, winning 6 from 6. Win or lose, it’s likely Brisbane will remain in 6th spot for the 6th week in a row, while their attack, defence and differential are all ranked 6th also. They are 8-12 ATS and have failed to cover in 8 of their last 9, including their last 4 when laying a double digit start. In TMP’s they are split evenly, producing a 10-10 result, while 6 of their last 8 have finished Overs. Brisbane has won 11 of 13 this season when going to half time with a lead, but have lost 7 from 7 when trailing at the break, while the half time leader has won 8 of the last 9 clashes between the Broncos and Eels. The Eels ended a 3 game losing streak last week and like the Broncos, will also be looking for back to back wins, only theirs will be for the 1st time since having their 12 competition points deducted. They have lost 10 of their last 12 interstate matches and have covered a line in only 2 of those, while 10 of them have finished Overs in TMP’s. Parramatta is now 12th and have the same ranking in attack, while their defence ranks 4th, giving them a differential of 17 that rates 7th. They are 12-8 ATS and have covered in 6 of 10 as an underdog, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 on the road with a double digit advantage since 2014. In TMP’s they heavily favour the Unders, producing a 13-7 result, while they are 7-3 Under versus the Top 8 and 7-3 Under as an outsider. The Eels have conceded 18 or more points in 5 of their last 6 and in 3 of their last 4 they have failed to score a 2nd half try. Only once since Round 6 have the Eels not scored a try down their right edge, with Bevan French being the major beneficiary, scoring 11 tries since his debut in Round 12.

Preview

Another trick game with the Broncos very much on trust. The finally broke through for a win last weeks but it was typically a rough grind in wet weather against another struggling opponent in the Dragons, they still have a lot to do to be turning on any sort of quality form toward the finals. With McGuire, Thaiday and Gillett back last week their forward balance and offering was much better, and we did see some glimpses of both Hunt and Milford playing more direct and with a little more confidence. While their recent record at home has not been good they will be better suited this week with a back to normal 7 day home prep and then local support. I think they have, on paper a key advantage in the 7, 6 and 1 roles, and can hurt the Eels down either edge or with their favoured width / spread plays.

The Eels keep on keeping on under all sorts of adversity but their worst offerings have been interstate away games (and is a long term negative over many recent years) with them losing 10 of their last 12 and also failing to cover the line at 10 of the last 12. Beau Scott is a key out in the middle for them, they look likely to get Radradra back, they do have some muscle and grunt in the middle which if they can focus the game there can hurt the Broncos, but I think the likely game style is up against them here.

With a clear weather forecast the key to the Broncos here will be playing the game at some speed, quick roll forwards through the ruck, some off load and second phase play and then be setting up ball shift options. Sides who have moved the Eels big middle around have done so to advantage, they can lack lateral agility in defense, and with their make shift halves and then three quarter pairings be caught out positionally in defence. I think the Broncos win by 3 tries, had I a touch more confidence that they were on the way back or anywhere near their potential then they’d be likely to rack up a number here against a determined but patchwork opponent, but right now I want to see the Broncos step up a gear and show some improved form before taking on a line of 14. If you are looking for a Friday night interest then Broncos to cover would be the play but I will be staying out.


Tigers vs Titans

0.0 Tigers

Stats

Super Saturday kicks off with 2 sides desperate for a win as they battle to secure a spot in the Top 8. The Titans have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Tigers, including a come from behind win when they last met in Round 3. There hasn’t been a lot separating these 2 sides, with the Titans holding a 2 game all time advantage, while wins have been shared equally from the last 14 meetings. It’s the 1st time in 5 years that they have clashed at Campbelltown, with the Tigers winning 2 of the previous 3 meetings. The Titans have dropped from 7th to 10th on the ladder after last week’s loss, with the Panthers, Warriors and Tigers all leap frogging them after they all recorded wins. They rank 10th in defence and 8th in attack and are 1 of only 2 sides out of the Top 8 with a positive differential. They have won 7 of 9 against their bottom 8 counterparts, with the 3 most recent victories all being by a margin of 20 points. The Titans have the lowest average in the comp for the time of the 1st try being scored and in 14 of their 20 matches, including their last 6 straight, the 1st try has been scored by the 7th minute. They remain as the Number 1 ranked side ATS, covering in 14 of their 20 matches and they have covered in their last 6 straight when starting as a road dog, while they have covered in their last 4 meetings with the Tigers. The Titans are split evenly in TMP’s, while 4 of the previous 6 meetings with the Tigers have finished Over. Anthony Don is now the Titans leading try scorer with 10 and he has crossed in his last 4 appearances. The Tigers are on a roll after 3 consecutive wins and will be looking to make it 4 straight for the 1st time since 2012. They have won 3 of their last 4 at Campbelltown but have covered a line in only 2 of their last 7 at the ground. The Tigers are currently 9th and a win this week could see them in the Top 8 for the 1st time since March. Their attack ranks 10th, while they are ranked 13th in defence, giving them a differential of -47 that rates 12th. They are 12-8 ATS and have covered in their last 7 straight, but have covered in only 1 of their last 7 as a home favourite. In TMP’s they are 11-9 in favour of the Overs, while 3 of their last 4 at Campbelltown have totaled 60 or more. James Tedesco is the Tigers leading try scorer with 14 and he has scored 6 tries from his last 6 appearances at Campbelltown.

Preview

Cracking game for the early Saturday arvo game, Tedesco and Moses into Taylor and Hayne! Take my hat off to the Tigers, they rose to the occasion, made defence their foundation and beat the Cowboys fair and square last week at Leichhardt. I expected them to have a crack, but clearly that game had some massive focus and Taylor had really got them up and set for it (and they responded). I have some doubts if not issue now as to how they come up this week off what I think could be some let down.

The Titans come through an opposite course, they had a week of hype and expectation with the arrival of Hayne, at home, big crowd, yet struggled to put it all together and were fairly beaten by the Warriors. It’s also interesting looking at those two games last week, the Cowboys took a shocking record into Leichhardt (1 win in 16 years) and lost, the Titans took a shocking record H2H against the Warriors (losing 10 of prior 11 and last 5 straight at Gold Coast) into their clash and lost. At this level some teams just have bogey grounds or opponents, sometimes better to give the benefit of the doubt with such losses than read too much into them.

Both sides sit next to each other in 9th and 10th spots playing for a semi final position. Campbelltown should be a nice advantage for the Tigers, they have a good record here, but funnily enough the Titans do travel well and in particular have an excellent record as the road underdog and or at the + line as such. The Tigers tho have a poor record as expected home fav and have failed to cover 6 of their last 7 as such, and are shooting for the difficult 4 straight wins. The Titans come through a strong form line, should be more relaxed here, be desperate, and I expect Hayne will be a significant influence.

Excellent contest, lean to Titans to improve and have to win.

Bet 1 unit Titans H2H $2.01 Pinnacle


Warriors vs Rabbits

-10.5 Warriors

Stats

It’s back to back distant away games for the Rabbitohs, after going down to the Storm in Melbourne last week, they now travel to New Zealand to take on the Warriors. The Rabbitohs have won the last 4 clashes with the Warriors but only 1 of those matches was played at Mt Smart Stadium where they have lost 3 of the last 4 clashes. They have now lost 9 in a row and 5 of their last 6 away games, while they are yet to defeat a Top 8 opponent, losing 8 from 8. Last week’s loss to the Storm was a big improvement from what they had been producing and it was the 1st time since Round 6 that they conceded less than 20 points. Souths have now dropped to 13th spot on the ladder, with their attack and differential also ranking 13th, while defensively they rank 14th . They are 7-13 ATS and have covered in only 2 of their last 9, while they have covered in just 3 of their last 15 when getting a start. In TMP’s they are 12-8 Over but have gone Under in 4 of their last 5, while they are 6-1 Under in the weeks following a match against a Top 8 side. A Rabbitohs try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Warriors but they have conceded the 1st try in 4 of their last 5. The Warriors remain in 8th spot with an attack that ranks 7th and a defence that ranks 13th, while they are the only side in the Top 8 with a negative differential. They have won their last 5 matches at Mt Smart Stadium as well as winning 5 of their last 6 matches against sides in the bottom half of the ladder. The Warriors have been involved in plenty of close contests in recent weeks, with 6 of their last 7 decided by single figures, including 4 Golden Point matches. They are 10-10 ATS and have covered in their last 3 straight, but they have covered in only 1 of their last 7 at Mt Smart Stadium when laying a start of more than 6 points. In TMP’s they are 11-9 in favour of the Overs, but 6 of their last 7 have finished Under, while 5 of their last 6 against the bottom 8 have also gone Under. David Fusitua has now scored 11 tries from 14 appearances this season, including 4 tries in his last 3 matches and he has been the 1st try scorer of the match in his last 2 games.

Preview

I think the Warriors win, and likely cover the line but happy to just stick with the H2H result. I think last weeks effort from the Rabbits might well finish them, they have lost 9 straight and are into two road away games back to back. They’ve made a habit of leaking near 30 points most weeks, but last week finally had their strongest line up for sometime which certain;ly improved them. They have lost 5 of their last 6 away games and have a terrible record against top 8 sides.

Warriors come off a good month or so, they were favoured with their run through the Origin period but then could well have won a few more off their run of golden point games but then aimed up with a good quality tough away win over the Titans last week (but were also suited as the underdog). They return back home where they have won their last 5 games but I just don’t want to pull the trigger on a 10 point line off them having been in some many close results of late and a record of only covering 1 of their last 7 at home.


Dragons vs Sharks

+8.5 Dragons

Stats

A local derby closes out Super Saturday and as history shows, there has been little between sides, with the alltime honours shared equally at 18 wins each, while there has been 1 draw. The Sharks have won the 2 most recent encounters and will be looking to make it 3 straight for the 1st time since 2008, while a win will be their 1st at Kogorah since 2007. Generally these clashes have been low scoring affairs and only twice in the last 18 meetings since 2007 have the TMP’s been more than 40 with an average of 31. The Dragons have won 4 of their last 5 at Jubilee Oval but come into this match off the back of 5 consecutive losses. They remain in 12th spot with the 2nd worst attack in the NRL and the 8th ranked defence, while their differential of -165 rates 15th . The Dragons are 10-10 ATS and have covered in 5 of their last 6 against the Top 8 and they have also covered in 5 of their last 7 at Jubilee Oval. In TMP’s they Dragons are 14-6 Under, 11-1 Under versus the Top 8 and a combined 13-5 Under at their suburban home grounds since 2014. The Dragons have scored the opening points of the match in 15 of the last 18 matches against the Sharks. After spending 7 weeks at the top of the ladder, the Sharks now sit 2nd after suffering their 1st loss since Round 3. They still have a 6 point buffer to 3rd and will fight it out with Melbourne for the Minor Premiership. Despite going winless from their last 2 matches, the Sharks still have the 2nd best attacking record in the comp, while the have the 3rd best defense. The Sharks are 12-8 ATS and have covered in 6 of their last 7 on the road, while they have also covered in 4 of their last 5 as a road favourite. They are 11-9 Under in TMP’s with a 7-4 Under record in night games this season. Valentine Holmes has skipped clear as the Sharks leading try scorer with 16 and he has scored 3 tries in his 3 matches against the Dragons. The Sharks are just 1 point shy of scoring twice that of the Dragons and with the return of Michael Ennis the Sharks will be returning to the winners circle.

Preview

Dragons get key ins with Frizelle, Thompson and Dugan and play at Kogarah but get the Sharks for mine the wrong week off their loss to the Raiders. The Dragons have lost 5 in a row, have a nuffy for coach, more often than not can’t score more than two tries and are just plain ugly to watch. But with some key ins and at home they might keep this a little closer, somewhere around where the line has been placed.

The Sharks are 2nd, last weeks loss was due and should do them some good, I think there is an obvious class and execution gap between the two of them, I think the market has it about right. Sharks to win, lets just play through them to be doing that as a winning option in our all up.


Knights vs Panthers

+14.5 Knights

Stats

Cellar dwellers the Knights are at home for the 2nd week in a row where they play host to a Panthers side coming off their biggest win of the season. The Panthers have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Knights, but the Knights have won 4 of the last 5 clashes played at Hunter Stadium. It’s now more than 4 months since the Knights last tasted success and they look set to claim their 1st Wooden Spoon since 2005. They have the worst attack and the worst defence in the comp and half of their 18 losses this year have been by 20 points or more. The Knights are 8-12 ATS with a 5-4 cover record at home, while they have covered in 6 of their last 8 at home with a double digit advantage. They are 11-9 Over in TMP’s, while they are 14-8 Over in day games at home since 2014. Matches where Dave Munro has been a charge have also gone Over at a rate of 75% in 2016, with none of them totaling less than 40. A Knights try has been the 1st scoring play in the previous 5 clashes with the Panthers at Hunter Stadium. The Panthers have won 3 of their last 4 and will be looking to make a late charge with their remaining 4 matches all against sides currently sitting out of the Top 8. They have won 4 of their last 5 against the bottom 8 and 5 of their last 7 as a road favourite, but they have been average on the road in 2016, winning only 4 of 10. Penrith ranks 9th in attack and 11th in defence, giving them a 3 point differential that also ranks 9th. The Panthers are 10- 10 ATS and have covered only 2 of their last 5 as a road favourite. In TMP’s they are also split 10-10, while 5 of their last 6 against the bottom 8 have finished Overs, with all 6 totaling 40 or more. Only once in the last 9 meetings with the Knights have the Panthers led at half time and only twice this season from 10 away games have they led at the break.

Preview

I like the chances of the Panthers here. One of the key factors through these finals rounds prior to finals is sides who look like building form and confidence (Panthers) and those struggling, mentally all but stuffed and just waiting for these weeks to finish and get to Mad Monday and their end of season trip (Knights). The Panthers come off a very positive win last Monday night, and while their opponent was poor the shinning issue here is Cleary and some key players around him having very positive nights and building some key believe and confidence. Things look like they might well be starting to click with their combinations and belief and this last win in weeks ahead might well be marked as that break through turning point.

Young Nathan Cleary has been earmarked for some time as a kid who looked pretty special, well there is certainly no doubt now that he is, he has that rare combination of being tough, can defend for a small body, has time and reads the play exceptionally well – add to that he reeks natural talent, for a guy with such little top grade experience (8 games) to be standing up as he is is just outstanding. Cartwright is a edge backrower playing out of position to suit their current needs, but over the last two weeks he looks like he is now reading his play with and off Cleary much better and shinning on occasions with his ball play role. Peachy and Moylan then slot in around this, then add the list of talent around them all. I still remain critical of Griffin’s inability to coach what is required in the final 20 mtrs try line attack, but right now so much of their play is building from 30 and 40 mtrs out or they have skill well above their poor defending opponents it is not yet the issue.

The Knights have been tough, but reality is they have lost 14 straight and a falling away more quickly now in these back end weeks and conceding 30 quite easily most weeks. They have been put to the sword at a couple of recent away games and for mine now face a side on the up with a game style and attacking / skill focus that could easily and regularly open them up and punish them to advantage. I have been somewhat conservative in handicapping this game at 14.5, even with the Knights at home I could easily have been at 18 to 20.

I like the way this games shapes up for Panthers and their attack and skill strengths, keen they can win by a margin here.

Bet 3 units Panthers -11.5 $1.91 Pinnacle


Roosters vs Cowboys

+6.5 Roosters

Stats

The only match of Round 23 featuring 2 last start losers will see the Roosters at home against the Cowboys. It was 1 way traffic when these sides last met in Round 3, when the Cowboys scored 40 unanswered points, keeping the Roosters to nil for the 1st time in 2 years. The Roosters hold a distinct advantage both all-time and at Allianz Stadium, with the last meeting at the ground 1 of the most memorable Finals, with the Cowboys trailing 30-0 before mounting 1 of the great comebacks only to be beaten by a point. The Cowboys have now dropped out of the Top 4 for the 1st time since Round 4 and have lost 3 of their last 4 and 5 of their last 6 on the road. Despite dropping out of the Top 4, the Cowboys still rank as the 3 rd best attacking unit in the NRL, while their defence rates 2nd. They are 10-10 ATS but have failed to cover in 5 of their last 6 away games, while they are 3 & 3 when laying a start on the road. In TMP’s they are 12-8 Under with their last 5 all finishing that way, while their last 6 on the road have also gone Unders. The Cowboys have won 11 from 11 this year when going to half time with a lead, while the half time leader has won 10 of the last 11 clashes between the Roosters and Cowboys. The Roosters have lost 7 of their last 8 and 8 of 11 this season at Allianz Stadium, while they have lost 11 of 12 against the Top 8. They remain in 15th spot and have been there for 14 weeks with just 4 wins and look set to have their worst finish since 2009. They rank 14th in attack and 15th in defence and have conceded 20 points or more on 15 occasions. The Roosters are 7-13 ATS, which is the equal worst cover record in the comp and they have covered in only 3 of 7 at Allianz Stadium this year when getting a start. They are 14-6 Over in TMP’s, with 5 of their last 6 totaling 40 or more. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in 5 of their last 6, while in 9 of their last 10 matches, the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 8th minute. The Roosters have scored half of their 62 tries this season attacking to their left edge, but no side has conceded fewer tries than the Cowboys through their right edge in defence (12). A couple of key ins for the Roosters and key outs for the Cowboys, with Pearce and JWH back for the TriColours, while Granville and Hannant are out for North Queensland

Preview


Raiders vs Storm

+3.5 Raiders

Stats

The match of the Round closes out Round 23 when the 2 form teams of the competition go head to head in Canberra. Both sides are on a 6 game winning streak, the Raiders winning 9 of their last 10, while Melbourne has won 13 of their last 14. The Storm has won 26 of 36 all-time against the Raiders and they have also dominated at GIO Stadium, winning 12 of 18, with 12 of those wins coming from the last 14 meetings at the ground since 2003. Melbourne is now back at the top of the table with 17 wins off the back of the best defence in the NRL, conceding just 11.5 points a game. They are ranked 4th in attack with a 245 point differential that is also the best in the competition. The Storm is 11-9 ATS and has covered in 9 of their last 13 matches, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 as a road favourite when laying less than 6 points. In TMP’s they continue to be the Number 1 Unders side in the comp, producing a 15-5 result, while they have gone Unders in 23 of their past 31 away games. MNF is also prone to the Under, with a 14-7 result this result and a combined 28-17 result since 2015. For the 2nd week in a row the Raiders hold down 3rd spot and have spent 21 of 22 weeks in the Top 8. They are the Number 1 attacking side in the NRL, averaging 27.1 points a game, while that average increases to 31.3 PPG since Round 11. They rank 7th defensively, while their 152 point differential ranks 4th. Canberra is 13-7 ATS, with a 6-4 cover record at home, but have covered in only 5 of their last 12 at home as an underdog. The Raiders are the Number 1 Overs side in the NRL, producing a 15-5 result and they have gone Overs in 8 of their last 9. In MNF, both sides have average recent records, with Melbourne winning 6 of their last 13, while the Raiders have won 3 of their last 6 Monday fixtures. The home side has a 12-8-1 record in MNF and a 12-9 record ATS, with a 4-3 cover record as a home underdog. It’s the team with the best attack hosting the team with the best defence and shapes as 1 of, if not the match of the season.

Preview

Great contest but certainly a tricky game. I am working on Austin not playing, which is a key out and significantly weakens their attack. I also think the Raiders are somewhat like the Tigers into this round, come off a big game, big win for which they had a big lift and then run the risk of some let down into another big game. Also, with the Cowboys surprise loss the Raiders then have some breathing space for another week in the top 4, so less urgency and possibly some mental complacency. That “big” win last week also now looks somewhat questionable given the Sharks loss.

But I’m also not completely sold on the Storm at present, they could have should have been beaten last week by the Rabbits who have then knocked an easy 40 through the Warriors.

I think we are seeing some teams at the top of the table playing on some tired legs on the back of  origin and some likely heavy fitness build ups towards the finals run, more likely the Storm here.

The Raiders do have the game style and man power through the middle to trouble and or beat the Storm, but their discipline, handling and control against a good opponent in a real arm wrestle concerns me. The Storms defence has been outstanding this year, and I think that is the likely difference here.

Lets watch and learn what two top of table sides have to offer. Great clash, slight lean to Storm.



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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