NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 17 Round 12

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 17 Round 12

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 17 Round 12


+104.79 units profit since commencement

2013-17

Profit +104.79 units

358 winners / 662 bets | strike rate 54.1%


NRL Tips Rd 12 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-1.5 Rabbits vs Eels

-8.5 Warriors vs Broncos

-6.5 Sharks vs Bulldogs

-12.5 Raiders vs Roosters


NRL Round 12 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Sharks-Bulldogs under 39.5 $1.90 Bet365 / 38.5 $1.90 William Hill

Bet 2 units Raiders -4.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet / $1.90 William Hill BB

Bet 1 unit Raiders-Roosters over 42.5 $1.90 William Hill

Bet 1 unit Line/Total Double NSW +2.5/Under 38.5 $2.30 Tabsportsbet

Bet 2 units Origin 1 – NSW to win $1.95 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Origin – NSW to win series straight out $1.95 Tabsportsbet


BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence, FAQ – Why do you talk and bet in units? > answers here).


Longer Term Recommended Bets

Premiership (22nd February)

Bet 2 units Storm to win Premiership $8.00 Tabsportsbet

Most Losses / Wooden Spoon (9th March)

Bet 2 units Rabbits most losses $11.00 Ubet / William Hill


Individual Game Tips

Eels, Warriors, Sharks, Raiders, NSW


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week or early weekend. With the final team lists not announced until Tuesday afternoon, which I then re rate against (current performance, key ins and outs / final team lists and then look to handicap each up coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards final potential bets and written game previews. In short with team lists announced late Tuesday that then leaves two days to work through these tasks. I will focus the first preview notes at any game that has a recommended bet so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance, and then be working through each game there after in order of day and time (from Thursday onward).

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist


Rabbits vs Eels

-1.5 Rabbits

Stats

The Rabbitohs will host the Eels at ANZ Stadium to kick off an abbreviated Round of NRL, where neither side will be affected by Origin. Souths have an imposing record over Parramatta, winning 9 of the previous 11 clashes, including 7 of the last 8 encounters at ANZ Stadium. There have been plenty of points on offer in recent seasons, with 9 of the last 11 match ups topping 40, while in 8 of the last 10 meetings, the winning margin has been by 13+. The Rabbitohs return home after spending the last fortnight on the road, but will need to improve on their home record, with just 1 win from 5 games at ANZ Stadium this season. Souths remain in 13th spot on the ladder, with an attack and defence that both rank 12th, although their defence has improved in the last 2 weeks, conceding scores of 8 and 14 after not conceding less than 18 in their 1st 9 matches. They are 6-5 ATS, but have a poor record in FNF, covering in only 2 of their last 9 as a favourite. In total match points they are 6-5 Under, while 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Eels have gone Over. A Rabbitohs try has been the 1st scoring play in 12 of the previous 14 clashes with the Eels, while they have conceded the last try of the match in 8 of their last 9. The Eels have suffered B2B losses, conceding a total of 70 points in the process, while they have averaged just 13 points in attack. They are currently 10th, with an attack and defence that both rank 11th . Its B2B games at ANZ Stadium for Parramatta who has won 6 of their last 9 at the ground, while they have won their last 4 matches at ANZ Stadium as the away team. They are 5-6 ATS and have covered in 6 of their last 7 Friday night matches as a small outsider, while they have covered in 8 of their last 12 at ANZ Stadium. The Eels are 6- 5 Under in total match points and are a big Unders sides as both an outsider (7-1 since 2016) and an underdog at ANZ Stadium (last 6 straight). The home team has covered in only 2 of 11 matches this season with Grant Atkins in charge.

Preview

Short handicap on tricky game with two non performers, and notable no Origin outs for either team. Rabbits 4 from 11 off 5 day turn around and Perth trip / game, they have a very poor record the game following this trip losing 6 of the last 8. Eels 5 from 11 and have limped through the last few weeks with 2 straight losses and remain with key issues in their halves.

Rabbits off a further loss but a good effort, where once again they seem to pick and choose when they do put in. Big effort 5 weeks ago vs broncos (and should have won), terrible dip vs Eagles, limp win vs ordinary Tigers then close tight effort aided by the wet conditions vs Storm. They should be advantaged with all 3 Burgess Brothers on their list but will be required up against a very physical offering from the Eels. Reynolds and Cody Walker are the keys here, Reynolds kicking game but needs to ge more involved than he has been recently, Walker a talent but I’d much prefer playing #6 and closer to the ball.

Eels have had some major problems in the halves. Norman a massive out, thin depth and now very much needing their new arrival Moses to aim up and show some direction and leadership, which I’m not yet convinced are his strengths. They also lose Jennings for the next month. Their approach is very much brawn coupled with a couple in Ma’u and Edwards who can do something with the ball but it has continued to break down there after with poor direction and linking. They should be improved a little with Moses into his 2nd week, and the return of Takairangi might provide some additional options in either linking or edge attack.

Not an attractive game, with the Eels on trust, they have a terrible recent record vs the Rabbits but just might get them on the right week.


Warriors vs Broncos

-8.5 Warriors

Stats

A depleted Broncos side missing up to 8 regulars will make the trip to Mt Smart Stadium to take on the Warriors. Brisbane will be missing 6 players for Origin 1, while Roberts and McCullough are both under injury clouds. The Warriors will only be without Lillyman. Brisbane had recorded 3 straight victories over the Warriors, before the Warriors won the corresponding match last year. Brisbane has won only 2 of their last 9 matches played at Mt Smart Stadium, while 4 of the previous 5 meetings at the ground have resulted in a winning margin of 1-12 points. Only twice from the last 10 encounters have the match points tallied less than 35, while the team to score the 1st points has gone on to win 10 of the previous 12 meetings. The Warriors have lost 4 of their last 5 and continue to be the worst performing side in 2nd halves, where they haven’t scored more than 1 2nd half try in 10 of their 11 matches. They are languishing in 14th spot, with an attack and defence than both rank 13th and only on 2 occasions this season have they conceded less than 20 points. The Warriors are the equal worst cover team in the NRL, producing a 3-8 result and have failed to cover in 8 of their last 11 at Mt Smart Stadium and 6 of their last 7 as a home favourite. In total match points they are 7-4 Under, while 5 of their last 7 against the Broncos have also gone Unders. The Broncos have won 6 on the trot and have scored 24 points or more in all of them, but they have had the luxury of playing 5 of those at Suncorp Stadium. They lost 4 of 5 during the Origin period in 2016, including an 18 point loss to the Warriors, while they have lost 4 of their last 6 as a road outsider. The Broncos have moved into 2nd spot with the 5th best attack and the 2nd best defensive record, conceding less than 15 PPG. Brisbane has a 6-5 record ATS and have covered in their last 7 straight as an interstate underdog. They are 7-4 Over in total match points, with 5 of their last 6 finishing that way. The Broncos have scored the last try of the match in their last 6 straight and in 3 of those matches they haven’t conceded a 2nd half point.

Preview

A game scattered with a long list of outs. Warriors lose Kata, Lillyman and Gubb but get Mannering back. Broncos lose Milford, Boyd, Gillett, Thaiday, McGuire, Oats and McCullough – near 50% of their list and all rep quality, a big hole.

The ground is a key issue here, the Warriors return home off two away legs a key plus, the Broncos have lost 7 of their last 9 at Mt Smart.

The guess work here is in what mental state the Warriors are. Toweled up with that disastrous second half offering vs the Panthers two weeks ago they were then terrible last week against a Dragons with 3 key outs. Out coached, sliced up down their pathetic right edge defence, consistently out enthused they are hard to have. What really disappointed me was the coaching, Kearney looked to just sit pat and not make any key changes in particular to his limp right edge, some what dumbfounding.

Warriors get their chance to win, I’ll tip that way against a very under strength opponent but I don’t like the game at all. The Broncos are likely to be positive and really have a go, could well take them a long way into this. No interest, but if I had to I’d much rather my money with a positive trier than a side with what appears plenty of mental scars.


Sharks vs Bulldogs

-6.5 Sharks

Stats

The Sharks and Bulldogs will both have key personnel missing when they clash at Shark Park on Saturday. Cronulla will be without Maloney, Graham, Fifita and Bird, while the Dogs will be missing Klemmer, Jackson and Brett Morris who are all on Origin duties, while Reynolds is still out injured. The Bulldogs won 7 of 8 meetings with the Sharks from 2007 to 2014, but Cronulla have recorded B2B wins in the 2 most recent encounters. Low scoring matches have been common place, with only 1 of the last 9 breaching 38, while this has also been the result in 11 of the 14 matches played at Shark Park dating back to 1993. The Sharks have won 7 of their last 8 and in 6 of those matches they have conceded 2 points or less in the 2nd halves. They are currently 3rd and have been haven’t been positioned out of the top 4 for the last 6 weeks. Cronulla have been average in attack posting a score of more than 28 just once, which has them ranking 9th, but they are the Number 1 defensive unit in the NRL, conceding and average of 13.3 PPG. They are 5-6 ATS and are yet to cover at home, producing a 0-5 result, while they have covered in only 3 of their last 13 at home when laying a start. In total match points the Sharks are in heavy favour of the Under, with a 9-2 result, including their last 9 straight, while they have a 16-5 Under record from their last 21 as a home favourite. The Sharks have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 9 of their last 10 matches. The Bulldogs have lost 3 of their last 4 and 4 of their last 5 away from ANZ Stadium. They have trailed at half time in their last 8 straight, averaging less than 4 1st half points during that time. Canterbury is 9th on the ladder, with a defence that ranks 6th, but they are ranked second last in attack and have scored 18 points or fewer in 6 of their last 8. The Dogs are 7-4 ATS and have covered in only 2 of their last 8 when getting a start of less than a converted try. Like the Sharks, Canterbury is also a big Unders side, with an 8-3 result after 11 Rounds, while since 2014 they are 15-7 Under as a small outsider. Kerrod Holland has been the Bulldogs 1st try scorer of the 2nd half in 3 of their last 4 matches. Home favourites have covered in only 4 of the previous 18 matches with Ben Cummins in charge.

Preview

Sharks without Maloney, Graham, Fifita and Bird. Bulldogs without Jackson, Klemmer, Morris and Reynolds (injured).

Two sides somewhat hard to catch and work out who turns up. Sharks sit 2nd and keep ticking over and winning as required, but fair to be said winning ugly and or just through recent weeks aside from their toweling up of the Panthers (Rd 7). Certainly some concerns here about their attack and points with all 4 of their outs key attacking strike players who’ve an ability to create or finish something, and for a side only averaging 19 pts a weeks in attack a concern.

Bulldogs, realistically Jackson and Klemmer are the key outs here, but they do have some forward depth. They are just so hard to catch or forecast, if we take last weeks positive attack offering (although losing) then they give this a shake, but many of the weeks prior were ugly and poor. They now travel to Shark park, somewhat unusual as they play so many games at Homebush. As we have noted numerous times across recent weeks their attack has been so scratchy failing to break more than 14 points at only 4 of their last 16 occasions so into an away venue is 14 or 16 enough going to win this for them?

I think the key to this game is two teams struggling with key outs and where their attack and points come from. Which ever way I handicap the game I have the Sharks have slight advantage and then home track, but the Bulldogs best of last week can win. But I think they both look to strugle to open this up and score points, I’m with a tight game and the unders position.

Bet 2 units Sharks-Bulldogs under 39.5 $1.90 Bet365 / 38.5 $1.90 William Hill


Raiders vs Roosters

-12.5 Raiders

Stats

The final match of Round 12 will see the Raiders host the Roosters from GIO Stadium. Both sides have players on Origin duties, but the Roosters have been hardest hit as they will be without 5 regulars, while Canberra will be without Papalii. The Roosters had won 3 straight against the Raiders until Canberra ended their run with a 1 point victory in the only meeting last year. Canberra has won the last 3 meetings in the Nation’s Capital, with all 3 of them being by 4 points or less. There have been plenty of points on offer in recent clashes, with 7 of the last 8 topping 38 points, including the last 3 in Canberra which have averaged 44. The Raiders ended their 3 game losing run with a 6 point win over the Eels which saw them move back into the Top 8. They are currently ranked 4 th in attack and 8th in defence, with a 43 point differential that ranks 7th. Canberra has won 3 of their last 4 at home and 11 of their last 13 as a home favourite. They are 7-4 ATS and have covered in 3 of 4 this season as a big home favourite. In total match points they are 6-5 Under, but are a big Overs side in day games, producing a 35-10 result since 2014, including 13 of their last 14 and 10 of their last 11 at home. The Roosters have won 4 of their last 5 but have a host of key outs and lost 12 of 14 last year when Pearce and or Cordner were missing. They are currently 4th with an attack ranking of 7th, while they rank 4th in defence and no side has conceded fewer 1st half points than the Tri-Colours, where they average less than 7. The Roosters are 5-6 ATS, covering in only 1 of their last 4 away games, while they are 3-3 on the road since 2014 with more than a converted try advantage. They have also failed to cover in their last 6 straight day games played away from home. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in the previous 6 meetings with the Raiders. The Roosters are 6-5 Under in total match points, but have had Overs results in 8 of their last 11 day games and 7 of their last 8 day games on the road. Since 2014 the Overs have hit a 55% in day time matches, but this increases to 71% during the Origin period.

Preview

Raider are just without Papalii. Roosters are hard hit with outs, with Pearce, Cordner, Napa, Guerra, Ferguson and Kenny-Dowall all missing.

The Raiders should get their chance here with numerous key factors to suit. Firstly I like the fact that they had to work hard and scrap for their win last week, their form has not been to glamorous through the last month and on occasions through the last few years when they have won comfortably and been somewhat flashy with their attack they have suffered from over confidence into the following weeks. Stuart has also been right with his commentary that to be a true top 4 and finals contender in the future they need to learn how to scrap and fight and win ugly. Last week when an away game their completes, errors and general discipline was very good in a tight tough game which the Eels have since franked that form with a comfortable win over the Rabbits last Friday night. They are well suited here at home on a Sunday afternoon, they have a very good record in these circumstances across the last 18 months and have won 11 of their last 13 when a home fav.

The Roosters have a significantly reshuffled line up, and I think heavily hit with the outs of Pearce, Cordner and Napa in particular, Pearce despite the social beatings has been in good form and directs their game well while his linking partnership with Keary has been a major reason behind their winning season to date; Cordner is a star and does so much work on both sides of the ball while Napa is some size and grunt that they will miss up front against a big physical Raiders line up. But they are not legless here, Watson can play and can aim up with a point to prove at #6 and they have much better depth than last yr. But take 6 key players, all obviously rep players out of any line up and it is a significant weakening, they then face a tough road game / venue.

I have marked the key outs for the Roosters -9.5, a small mark down for the Raiders, then home advantage at a ground and time frame that they have a good record with and I am at -12,5 between them. But the Raiders will need to work, and aim up, they need to play to their strengths through the middle, consistently earn yardage and the right to play their attacking strengths, and they need big games from their two halves.

The venue, Sunday arvo day time game, these two sides attacking history, the outs and this being a day time game through the Origin period all heavily weigh to there being a game that should provide plenty of points, hopefully very lop sided points! On the back of all of these key numbers I also want to have a small interest with the total over.

Bet 2 units Raiders -4.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet / $1.90 William Hill BB

Bet 1 unit Raiders-Roosters over 42.5 $1.90 William Hill


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2017

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Wednesday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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