NRL State Of Origin Game 3 Preview
NRL State Of Origin Game 3 Preview
MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week including our State Of Origin preview for Reading The Play NRL subscribers.
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NRL State Of Origin Game 3 Preview
Game 3 Recommended Bet Options
NSW 1-12 $2.80 William Hill
Total Points over 31.5 $1.90 William Hill
The above bets are the favoured bet types MrG has recommended and bet for this game.
QLD vs NSW
There has been 18 Origin Game 3 deciders played since the series first went to three games in 1982 with QLD clearly having the upper hand winning 11 deciders, NSW 5 and there has been two draws.
Qld have won the last 6 straight deciders
Qld have won 9 of the 11 deciders in Brisbane
Qld have won 10 of the last 12 live matches (no dead rubber games) in Brisbane
NSW have named an unchanged 17, and carry the advantage of an unchanged 17 through all 3 games.
QLD have made further changes notably due to the key injury outs of Thurston and Boyd, with Munster to debut at #6, Morgan moving to the left Centre and Hunt coming on to the bench.
I posed the question prior to Game 1 that surely QLD would have fielded a stronger 17 (or starting 13) by starting Slater back at #1 given his successful return from injury this season. On the back of a thumping loss QLD selectors clearly then agreed with he then selected for Game 2 and offering a super contribution.
Surely now a similar question into Game 3 (with Thurston out) is would QLD’s best starting 13 on class and form have to include Cherry-Evans? The obvious answer is yes, regardless of who you might support. His form has been outstanding this season for the Sea Eagles, he has led a team to a premiership in the past and been good enough to earn Australian representation, and suits perfectly a combination outside of an organising #7 in Cronk (just like is current form outside Green or previously outside Foran). QLD clearly have heeded internal opinion and gone with the Storm’s spine of #9, #7, #6 and #1 but in doing so bloody a rookie into a decider at #6 and bring another in Hunt on to the bench, a player who has played one top grade game in the last 7 weeks? It could prove a masterstroke, for mine significant risk.
The elephant in the room is the loss of Thurston and to some degree Boyd. Thurston missed Game 1 and then played an outstanding role in the final result in Game 2, his absence surely at least a 3 to 5 point swing in NSW’s favour, possibly more given his outstanding goal kicking and the then dislocation caused in replacing him (and with a rookie). Boyd too is important, in career best form and the ability to play multiple positions across the backline, a major out.
I expected Game 2 to be close, but NSW to prevail. They led comfortably yet then choked when it mattered through the last 40 minutes. On paper they should get a few things back in their favour here, clearly the key outs and team changes of their opponent, the stability of the same 17 for now 3 games and a dry fast track in Brisbane which will suit their intent. But they also have some major hurdles to also over come, mentally can they steel themselves for the challenge of 80 minutes in Brisbane/ and their record in deciders is clearly poor. I also think NSW are better suited to this prep (Brisbane game) and quiet get out of Sydney camp, and any NSW supporter would dearly hope that Peter Sterling has had a lot of one on one influence this week. They do have the right team, and they do have the right game plan and key strengths, they just need to focus on playing to them and more importantly sticking to them.
QLD’s approach will be interesting. At half time in Game 2 NSW led the scoreboard 44-10 in points, with QLD then coming home to win the second half and the game 18-16. Through these first two games we have seen 32 points in game 1 and 34 points in game 2, much higher scoring games than normal for even matched Origin games. On Brisbane’s dry track I expect we will again see an attack focus and plenty of points, and I’d expect QLD realise that defending their way to victory is slim. Attacking and mounting scoreboard (and mental) pressure on their opponent in a decider in Brisbane is the best way to go. I also think they’ve shown this hand and reasoning in selecting Munster at #6 and Morgan in the Centres.
Intriguing game and match up, and looks a great decider! I still maintain NSW have the stronger team and the right aces to play, should they play them correctly. They have size and muscle up front, can dominate the middle and yardage game if played correctly, and then use the footy with some room to play for their halves. If it was my team I’d start Klemmer and bring Fifita off the bench, Klemmer can do the yardage and tough stuff up front through the first 20 minutes while Fifita has shown what a damaging ball playing big man he can be, a game turner, and fresh off the bench for mine he is far better suited to make impact. The Thurston out is massive, the guy’s a freak and one of the all time best, it’s a major turn around in NSW’s favour.
I lean to NSW getting it right, but a close game with likely swings right across the 80 minutes. I do expect points, I think this game opens right up, NSW know they have to play to their strengths through the middle, QLD know they have to attack and use the ball to mount a position off which to win. The first two games have seen 32 and 34 points, I am expecting something at least around 40.
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Key Contest Stats
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Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.
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