NRL State Of Origin 17 | Game 1 Preview

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NRL State Of Origin 17 Game 1 Preview

MrG provides NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting content each week including our State Of Origin preview for Reading The Play NRL subscribers.

NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 17 Round 2


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NRL Tips | State Of Origin 2017 – Game 1


Game 1 Recommended Bet Options

Line/Total Double NSW +2.5/Under 38.5 $2.30 Tabsportsbet

Origin 1 – NSW to win $1.95 Sportsbet

Origin – NSW to win series straight out $1.95 Tabsportsbet

Anytime Try Scorer – Boyd Cordner $4.50 Unibet / Tyson Frizell $6.50 Sportsbet

Boyd Cordner Man Of The Match $15 Sportsbet

The above bets are the favoured bet types MrG has recommended and bet for this game.


Game Preview

QLD vs NSW

Brisbane

Stats

Queensland holds a 58-48 all time advantage over New South Wales, while there have been 2 draws. Since the 3 game Series was introduced, the Maroons have won 20 Series to the Blues 13, with 2 drawn Series in 1999 and 2002. Queensland has scored 1806 points since 1980, compared to NSW with 1656. NSW have used 267 players since the State of Origin concept began, while the Maroons have used 187. There have been 52 matches played at Lang Park/Suncorp Stadium, with Queensland holding a 32-18-1 all time advantage. Queensland has won 8 of last 9 encounters with NSW that have been played at Suncorp Stadium, with the Blues only win coming in the opening game of the 2014 Series and that win was just the 3 rd time since 1998 that NSW have won “Game 1” of a Series at Suncorp. The Maroons have also won “Game 1” in 6 of the previous 8 Series. A winning margin of 1-12 points has been the result in 21 of the last 25 Origins and also in the last 13 series openers, while 11 of the last 14 “Game 1” Origin’s played at Suncorp Stadium have been decided by 8 points or less. Queensland has scored the 1st points of the match in the last 6 Series openers at Suncorp Stadium dating back to 2001 (5 tries and 1 penalty goal), while Queensland has scored the last try of the match in 10 of the last 11 Series openers. A winger or centre has been the first try scorer in 7 of the last 11 matches to open an Origin series. Dane Gagai has 5 tries in 4 appearances for Queensland and he has been the Maroons 1st try scorer in 3 of the last 4 Origins. Only 6 of the last 18 Origins have had total match points of more than the 32.5 set for this game, while the last 6 openers have tallied 28 or less. The Blues have averaged just 6 points from the last 6 Series openers, while they have averaged less than 12 PPG under Laurie Daley. When a try has been the first scoring play, the team that scored the try has gone on to win the match on 17 of the last 24 occasions. There have been 35 three games series’ and the winner of Game 1 has gone on to win the series on 26 occasions (74%). Both sides have named debutants, while Queensland holds a distinct advantage with experience, having played a total of 209 Origin games while the Blues have played just 108 (a 39 game swing in the Blues favour since Game 1 2016).  In total try comparisons, the Maroons current side has scored 43 tries to the Blues 21, with Darious Boyd (17) and Jarryd Hayne (9) leading the way.

Preview

QLD have now won 10 of the last 11 series.

QLD have won 9 of their last 11 outings in Brisbane (8 of their last 9). NSW last win at this ground was Game 1 – 2014 series.

Team changes since NSW won Game 3 of the 2016 Series. Queensland are without Corey Parker-retired (19), Matt Scott (22), Greg Inglis (30), Gavin Cooper (1) and Johnathan Thurston (36) and in their place are Michael Morgan (6), Will Chambers (5), Josh Papalii (6), Dylan Napa and Anthony Milford (both on debut). For the Blues, they have made 6 changes, in are newly appointed Captain Boyd Cordner (7), Jake Trbojevic, Nathan Peats (both on debut), with Brett Morris (13), Mitchell Pearce (16) and Jarryd Hayne (21) all returning to the Origin arena after all 3 missed the 2015 Series. Those not returning for NSW this year are Paul Gallen-retired (24), Robbie Farah (16), Michael Jennings (18), James Tamou (14), Matt Moylen (3) and Josh Mansour (3).

I think there are a number of keys to this game in weighing up how it is likely to be played, and then result. QLD hold an outstanding advantage both longer term, and at this ground, but they have been very heavily hit with key outs, Scott and Parker in the middle are major in both yardage, defensive work rate and Parker’s notable second phase off load game. Thurston is probably the second most important player to this QLD side (behind Smith) across the last 10 yrs, a huge out, as then is Inglis and his key attacking skill. That’s 107 Origin games of experience and quality at this level, a massive hole.

For mine I think Coach Walters and his advisers have played the loyalty card one game / series too long. If we look back at the history of QLD Origin, one of the strengths of their success across the last 20 yrs has been their preparedness to blood change and pick the right people, which NSW continued to stuff it up. In year on of his appointment Meninga swept a broom through this team and brought in talented youth and backed himself in, sure hindsight now tells us he had some stand out quality to work with and the majority of that list went on to be an outstanding champion team but big Mal was prepared to go with change and importantly form. Clearly in losing such depth and experience with his key outs Walters has gone back to the well of tried and tested guys like Myles, Guerra and Lillyman whereas I’d have thought form players like Hess, Wallace and Cooper were better options.

Yardage and field position look key concerns for the Maroons. Without Scott and Parker they are now relying on Myles and McGuire, a major step down, while I’d also expect that Corey Oates will be asked to do plenty of early tackle runs in a hope that he can get them going forward and use his big frame to carve out big yards. Smith and Cronk’s kicking game becomes critical but I expect they might well be playing plenty of footy off ordinary field position and at wrong end of the park.

I have been very critical of Coach Daley across recent years as for mine he has taken a safety first approach hoping to defend his way to victory as opposed to be prepared to play some attack and beat a QLD side that I believe through the last few yrs has been beatable. And there are undeniable facts that support this, as under Daley’s reign as Coach NSW have averaged just 11 points in attack… How many Origin games do you think 11 pts is going to win you? Correct, not many.

In 2017 the great Peter Sterling thankfully joins Daley as his key adviser and we have seen some clear tweaking of approach, notably at #9 with them now wanting a dummy half happy to just feed the ball and let his halves run the game / attack. Pearce and Maloney have won a premiership together and in Fifita, Graham and Bird they have much more punch and ball play in attack to help the likes of Cordner and Frizell. If Klemmer and Woods can focus on the simple work rate and yardage tasks I think across the park NSW have much better balance and attack than they have offered for years. The key is Daley has to have a preparedness to coach this in their preparation. NSW also need to be smart with their discipline, players like Klemmer, Maloney and Fifita can be prone to dumb game changing penalties, this is a game (in Brisbane) where they need to be on their best behavior.

QLD are a bloody tough nut to crack at home, as their outstanding record suggests, but if ever NSW got their chance then this is it. It’s not beyond them, they won game 1 here of the 2014 series and they face an opponent likely at tehir weakest for many years. The formula should be pretty simple, muscle up through the middle to dominate the physical contest and yardage game against a few who might be on the wrong side of their origin careers, kick smart, make QLD play as often as possible off their back end, and on the back of building any momentum be prepared to play some attack and build some scoreboard pressure (and take the crowd out of the game). NSW should also have a key advantage here off the bench with what looks far stronger depth, and some attacking skill.

I like NSW here, they get their chance. The naming of Boyd Cordner as NSW captain should only see him take the next step up and I expect he leads the way here with a massive game.

NSW 22-14


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Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist


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Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

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