NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 2 Preview
NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 2 Preview
Origin 2016 – Game 2
Origin 2016 – Game 2 Recommended Bets
QLD -4.0 $1.90
QLD 1-12 $2.75
Man of the Match: Cameron Smith $9.00
The above bets are the favoured bet types MrG has recommended for this game.
QLD vs NSW
A loss into game 2 would see QLD again win the series, and such a staggering 10 of the last 11 – NSW have much to play for! Let’s then put the potential size of that hurdle into some perspective. On the back of having lost 9 of the last 10 series NSW have a very poor record at the ground losing 8 of their last 10 here and to date have been devoid of any attack focus and points. And, critically, when it has mattered in past crunch games like this one when the pressure has been amplified (series result on the line) have more often than not folded quicker than a three legged card table (game 3 last year at this ground thumped 52-6…).
Consider these recent facts as we look at game 2
QLD’s attack / points at their last 10 outings in Brisbane:
So QLD have won 8 of their last 10 outings in Brisbane (7 of their last 8) and importantly averaged 27 points per game in attack.
Then consider the last 10 outings for NSW with Daley as coach, at all grounds, and the lack of attack / points in their game plan.
4, 6, 26, 10, 8, 6, 12, 10, 6, 14 – 10 games with only 3 where they have scored more than 10 points. Huston, we have a problem!
I think Daley and Fulton have dug themselves a massive hole through recent years and are now struggling to find a way out. They went down a path 3 years ago of attempting to shut QLD down, defend them out of the game and so have been picking sides big on muscle, size, 5 or 6 big front rowers so as to just bash and barge forward, try and dominate field position, pick up a try or two along the way and hope they end up in front by full time. Across these last 10 games they have won 4, luckily enough 2 of them in one series which enabled their breakthrough series win, but the facts speak for themselves, this negative low error defensive approach has led to only a 40% win record, negative boring games and dragged what used to be the best vs the best high quality Origin games into a thing long on the past. After all the huff and puff talk prior to game one, and then a 6-4 loss making significant team changes would admit error, and so down the same path they continue….
The other problem that the game 1 loss has caused is it has turned Daley’s per series plan on its head. With two games in Sydney this series his plan with the above approach was to win games 1 and 3 with this arm wrestle, defensive low error plan and do their best in Brisbane. Now he’s down 0/1 and facing a possible series loss on the Marons favoured turf, and either has to ensure NSW can tackle QLD out of this game or adjust his plans and manufacture some points, and I’d suggest they are going to need a minimum of 3 but more likely 4 tries to win. Their record to date wouldn’t endear you with confidence of that happening. See how that hole just seems to be getting deeper?
In watching QLD play and defend this through recent seasons, in particular game 1 of this series you could almost see them giggling to themselves. It’s like watching a car crash in slow motion, you know what’s coming, what’s unfolding, play after play with little variation or change, just defend it. NSW had enough ball and field position in game 1 to have won two games yet their only try came from a doubtful forward pass with a rare passing play at the line. Sound familiar? It’s like a broken record result or these last few years where NSW have had significant ball and field position and been beat. Thurston summed it up perfectly post game one when asked of Daley’s post match bleatings about the refs, saying “so they had that much ball, that much field position and couldn’t score and now its the refs fault”.
Brisbane offers a much different ground / grass surface that is much drier under foot for night games, and combined with the helpful advantage of a screaming full house, their significant past record at the ground and the attacking skill their team is laced with QLD are well advantaged here and most times end up playing attacking footy.
For NSW to be a chance here they have to change things up somewhat. They have to be prepared to ask more questions of QLD’s defence with some constructed attack plays, a preparedness to off load and ball play and open their opponents defensive line up. And don’t think QLD are not ready to be beat, with the right plan and personal they are. They have an aging list, this is probably one of the weakest forward line ups they have offers up for many years and lack mobility if tested against clever dummy half and forward ball play, which in turn would open them up and offer room to play. They have very rarely been put under any pressure on the scoreboard either, and many of their frailties would be exposed if the focus was on ball play, attack and points. They can be beat, just depends what plan you want to throw at them!
For QLD I think we’ll see far more expansive ball movement and emphasis on attack, and I certainly think they’ll see an option to target their favoured left edge (Inglis and Boyd and Oates) running at two questionable defenders in Walker and Ferguson. I think this will be a significant focus, and I expect these two will cop a hell of a work over.
This game looks QLD’s to lose. They walk in here with significant advantage of home track, leading 1 up in the series, some believe and confidence, knowledge that they’ve done this before, left attack edge strength, class and experience where it matters and fanatical home support.
For mine QLD 24-14
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NRL State Of Origin 2016 Game 2 Preview
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