NRL Season 2018 – Free Preview
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2018 Table Forecast and Team Analysis
These ratings are finalised using a whole range of performance data across recent seasons, team list changes (gains and losses), home and away advantage/records and a forecast simulation of all results for this coming seasons based on a series of ratings to finalise and forecast likely final table positions. I have used this method for a number of seasons with this method normally providing an accurate forecast of 7 to 6 of the final top 8 correct each season. Clearly the one thing we don’t know looking forward is the impact of key injury outs, in particular a highly rated rep player like a Thurston, Slater or co. These ratings are then reviewed and re rated each week based on current form, key ins or outs and ongoing changes.
I have also set out the 16 teams here below to show a visual representation of how the table ratings look pre season, and how close some of these sides look (rating) to each other. The Cowboys and Storm clearly rated on top, and with a gap then to those behind them. The Roosters rated 3rd, then the Broncos, Eels and Sharks all on similar ratings, then the Dragons.
I then have a clump of 6 sides who are all rated side by side. Along with the Dragons we will have 7 sides who look to start the new season all in contention for 2 spots in the top 8 and semi finals footy (with a tiny spread of only 0.2% in ratings across the 7 teams). The unknown now is the impact of new coaches, list overhauls and or new major signings, luck with the draw and the obvious unknown impact of key injuries. For example, I have marked the Sea Eagles down on the basis of losing an important play maker and experienced foil for Cherry-Evans (had that loss not occurred I would have them rated 7th or 8th), but should their new replacements and combinations gel and perform the right way they’ll be re rated week by week accordingly. I have similar issues with the stability and key list losses at the Panthers. But it’s a top 8 not a top 11 or 12 and so a line, rating and opinion is drawn as it is.
Cowboys, Storm
–
Roosters
Broncos, Eels, Sharks
Dragons
–
Raiders, Panthers, Sea Eagles, Rabbits, Knights, Bulldogs
–
Titans, Warriors, Tigers
2018 – Key Player Movements like no other season!
Have we ever seen such player movement, let alone the fact that 8 of the 16 teams have lost or signed a key play maker. Let’s remind ourselves, the premiership winner 9 times out of 10 will always have a representative International or Origin play maker calling the shots, its a fact, so we now have massive change with Cronk, Pearce, Green, Moylan, Hunt, Maloney, Foran and Reynolds all moving clubs. Add to this a high turn over and shift of top grade players we have seen an off season like no other that will impact on form, consistency and I expect a very even and competitive season ahead.
NRL Premiership Winner?
This time last year (2017) I had the Storm rated on top with a clear margin and recommended that we back them then at the generous $8.00. While I have made some minor adjustments to their rating they remain the benchmark, rated at the top now with the Cowboys and if ever their was a team capable of going back to back in the modern era then it is this mob. They have one of the bast coaches there is, certainly in my opinion the best club coaching and development systems, year after year an outstanding defensive record and significant home ground advantage. On the back of numerous positive developments I now also have the Cowboys rated a similar mark to the Storm and the obvious contender. They have the benefit of the return of Thurston and Scott, the addition up front of Mclean, the blossoming of Morgan across the last 10 wks of last yr into a stand out leader and play maker, the experience of a semi final run into their list of next generation players, heartland depth and a key home ground advantage.
Long term I think the competition winner is very likely to come from one of these two teams, and I’m happy to back them both. I have rated the Cowboys on top as I like teams who look to have further improvement in them when coming off a Grand Final loss, Morgan is on his way to the next level and a quality combination of he and Thurston looks deadly. Cowboys on top, Storm right in the mix.
2018 Table Forecast
1 Cowboys (P)
2 Storm
3 Roosters
4 Broncos
5 Eels
6 Sharks
7 Dragons
8 Raiders
–
9 Panthers
10 Sea Eagles
11 Rabbitohs
12 Bulldogs
13 Knights
14 Titans
15 Warriors
16 Tigers
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Individual Team Previews
Rate = 2018 Rating; Table = table position after all rounds prior to finals series; Won = Games Won; Against = Points Conceded; Av = Average points conceded per game; Differential = points difference between points for and points against across the season.
I rate very highly in my final team ratings a coach/teams ability to defend, their average points against each week longer term and then the comparison defence to attack. It’s no coincidence that the Storm have long term been a consistent top 8 team, let alone a top 4 team when you consider that year after year they concede 12 to 14 points a week (and this is year after year with a changing team list). In last years finals series in winning the Comp across 3 finals games the Storm conceded just 7.3 points a game in defence, the Cowboys and Roosters their two main rivals averaged 25 pts against in their finals games. Coaching quality defence is one of the hardest parts of the game, and one of the most important!
Cowboys
| Cowboys | Rate | Table | Won | Against | Av. | Differential |
| 2018 | 1 | |||||
| 2017 | 2 | 8 | 13 | 443 | 18.4 | +24 |
| 2016 | 2 | 4 | 15 | 355 | 14.8 | +229 |
| 2015 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 454 | 18.9 | +133 |
Player List
Gains: Carlin Anderson, Jordan McLean, Francis Molo
Losses: Patrick Kaufusi, Patrick Mago, Kalyn Ponga, Ray Thompson, Braden Uele, Blake Leary, Ben Spina
Draw Overview
Number of games vs my top rated 7 teams: 10
Teams they play twice: Broncos, Raiders, Sharks, Titans, Storm, Warriors, Eels, Panthers, Rabbitohs
Teams they play once: Bulldogs, Sea Eagles, Knights, Dragons, Roosters, Wests Tigers
Preview Thoughts
Defeated Grand Finalists after playing (winning) every week through finals to qualify, look to enter 2018 with a flashing red light with the return of Thurston and Scott from extended injury lay offs, key buy in McLean. Additional advantage of the maturing and blossoming of key playmaker Michael Morgan, long quality list with deep depth and some emerging stars, will have far less Origin outs and interference this season plus a long term key home track advantage. Have proven they can defend at the to end of the comp across a season and with the experience of last season and key player returns I expect we see this again this season. Highly rated top 2 side and look the team to beat.
Storm
| Storm | Rate | Table | Won | Against | Av. | Differential |
| 2018 | 2 | |||||
| 2017 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 336 | 14.0 | +297 |
| 2016 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 302 | 12.5 | +261 |
| 2015 | 7 | 4 | 14 | 348 | 14.5 | +119 |
Player List
Gains: Ryan Hoffman, Sam Kasiano, Patrick Kaufusi, Sandor Earl, Billy Walters, Cooper Johns, Kayleb Milne
Losses: Jesse Arthars, Cooper Cronk, Slade Griffin, Tohu Harris, Jordan McLean, Mark Nicholls, Robbie Rochow, Jeremy Hawkins, Nate Myles, Vincent Leuluai
Draw Overview
Number of games vs my top rated 7 teams: 10
Teams they play twice: Wests Tigers, Cowboys, Sharks, Knights, Broncos, Warriors, Dragons, Titans, Sea Eagles
Teams they play once: Bulldogs, Roosters, Raiders, Rabbitohs, Eels, Panthers
Preview Thoughts
Have been the benchmark for the last 2 yrs and again look the measuring stick, if any team is capable of a back to back performance in today’s era then it is this mob. They have an outstanding defensive system, have blooded a good list of quality kids through last 12 mths, which will balance out well against their losses, will win 90% of their home games and have a great travel / away record. Look for Cam Smith to play a lot more at either 13 or 7 in a play making role and allow Brandon Smith a lot of game time, a kid they have a big rap on. I also expect Kasiano has a stand out season. Rate top 2, I’m sure they’ll give September a shake.
Roosters
| Roosters | Rate | Table | Won | Against | Av. | Differential |
| 2018 | 3 | |||||
| 2017 | 8 | 2 | 17 | 428 | 17.8 | +72 |
| 2016 | 9 | 15 | 6 | 576 | 24.0 | -133 |
| 2015 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 300 | 12.5 | +291 |
Player List
Gains: James Tedesco, Cooper Cronk, Reece Robinson, Frank-Paul Nuuausala
Losses: Mitchell Pearce, Kane Evans, Aidan Guerra, Liam Knight, Connor Watson, Paul Carter, Brenden Santi, Johnny Tuivasa-Sheck, Michael Gordon, Grant Garvey
Draw Overview
Number of games vs my top rated 7 teams: 8
Teams they play twice: Wests Tigers, Knights, Titans, Sea Eagles, Dragons, Bulldogs, Rabbitohs, Warriors, Broncos
Teams they play once: Sharks, Panthers, Storm, Cowboys, Raiders, Eels
Preview Thoughts
Key quality signings, but have they lost a bit of depth and back up? With Cronk and Tedesco they now look to have an outstanding back 7 and will likely clean up many of the also rans and mid table sides during the season and look a likely fav to win the comp. My issue is their middle where they got found out a number of times last year most notably when it mattered in both semi finals, and premiership winning teams don’t leak 25 points a week in September. They have a huge advantage with a very soft draw (best in comp), the real test will come when up against the key top 5 or 6 sides in particular those very strong and physical through the middle. Top 3, but some reservations.
Broncos
| Broncos | Rate | Table | Won | Against | Av. | Differential |
| 2018 | 4 | |||||
| 2017 | 7 | 3 | 16 | 433 | 18.0 | +164 |
| 2016 | 1 | 5 | 15 | 434 | 18.0 | +120 |
| 2015 | 9 | 2 | 17 | 379 | 15.7 | +195 |
Player List
Gains: Jack Bird, Patrick Mago, Andre Savelio, Sam Tagataese
Losses: Jai Arrow, Adam Blair, Herman Ese’ese, Ben Hunt, Matiu Love-Henry, Benji Marshall, Tautau Moga, Jai Whitbread, Joe Boyce, Mitchell Dodds, Travis Waddell
Draw Overview
Number of games vs my top rated 7 teams: 10
Teams they play twice: Bulldogs, Sharks, Titans, Sea Eagles, Storm, Warriors, Cowboys, Rabbitohs, Roosters
Teams they play once: Raiders, Knights, Eels, Panthers, Dragons, Wests Tigers
Preview Thoughts
Top 4 side last year, very favourable draw, major home track advantage and luxury of regular weekly 7 day turn around’s. Quality list riddled with long list of rep players, have skill attack and points in them, the key issues now are how they aim up with front row quality and depth and the loss of Hunt in tehir halves and playmaker role. Kevie Walters has been recruited back for the obvious role of working with their halves pairing and all the mail is that Milford will step into the play maker and directional role. While I have rated them down slightly for the time being on these issues, they still look at top 6 side and they are another club with a quality system capable of unearthing a few quality kids. Rate them 4th to 5th with the Eels, behind the top 3
Eels
| Eels | Rate | Table | Won | Against | Av. | Differential |
| 2018 | 5 | |||||
| 2017 | 12 | 4 | 16 | 457 | 19.0 | +39 |
| 2016 | 10 | 14 | 13 | 324 | 13.5* | -26 |
| 2015 | 12 | 12 | 9 | 573 | 23.8 | -125 |
Player List
Gains: Kane Evans, Jaeman Salmon, Tony Williams, Jarryd Hayne
Losses: Bureta Faraimo, Kelepi Tanginoa, Isaac De Gois, Jeff Robson, Semi Radradra, John Folau, Cody Nelson, James Hasson, Rory O’Brien, Frank Pritchard
Draw Overview
Number of games vs my top rated 7 teams: 9
Teams they play twice: Panthers, Sea Eagles, Sharks, Wests Tigers, Bulldogs, Knights, Cowboys, Rabbitohs, Dragons
Teams they play once: Raiders, Warriors, Broncos, Titans, Storm, Roosters
Preview Thoughts
Highly favoured with an excellent draw. They have stability with their list, and a couple of key additions (Hayne and Evans) but face a key loss with Radradra – a game turned / winner who turned numerous games last yr with freakish tries. They have a big pack of Forwards with deep bench depth, play very physical and will belt many opponents this season. Finished top 4 last yr and rattled Storm for 40 mins in first semi final, they should be better for the off season development of their halves pairing and look a strong key contender into this season. Look in for big year, I have them rated just behind the top 3 and a major player.
Sharks
| Sharks | Rate | Table | Won | Against | Av. | Differential |
| 2018 | 6 | |||||
| 2017 | 5 | 5 | 15 | 407 | 16.9 | +69 |
| 2016 | 5 | 3 | 17 | 404 | 16.8 | +176 |
| 2015 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 476 | 19.8 | -7 |
Player List
Gains: Josh Dugan, Aaron Gray, Matt Moylan, Ava Seumanufagai, Braden Uele, Scott Sorensen, Trent Hodkinson
Losses: Jack Bird, James Maloney, Gerard Beale, Fa’amanu Brown, Chris Heighington, Jeremy Latimore, Daniel Mortimer, Jaeman Salmon, Jordan Drew, Sam Tagataese, Jayden Walker, Tony Williams
Draw Overview
Number of games vs my top rated 7 teams: 11
Teams they play twice: Cowboys, Dragons, Eels, Storm, Panthers, Raiders, Bulldogs, Knights, Broncos
Teams they play once: Roosters, Titans, Rabbitohs, Wests Tigers, Warriors, Sea Eagles
Preview Thoughts
Looks some further positive reshaping of their player list with Moylan and Dugan key acquisitions. Their Forward list has been aging over the last few seasons, does this hinder them across a long season? Defensively always very tight, tough and strong, concede little and normally they have a strong home ground advantage. They looked like a side enjoying the glory of a premiership win across last season as opposed to still having the hunger for the weekly effort required, a year later and with some key changes to their list I expect them to be much better. Experienced, smart footy side, I have them rated top 6 and a key player.
Dragons
| Dragons | Rate | Table | Won | Against | Av. | Differential |
| 2018 | 6 | |||||
| 2017 | 14 | 9 | 12 | 450 | 18.7 | +83 |
| 2016 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 538 | 22.4 | -197 |
| 2015 | 13 | 8 | 12 | 408 | 17.0 | +27 |
Player List
Gains: James Graham, Ben Hunt, Jeremy Latimore, Darren Nicholls, Mitchell Allgood
Losses: Levi Dodd, Josh Dugan, Kalifa Faifai Loa, Jacob Hind, Drew Hutchison, Chris Lewis, Mose Masoe, Tyrone McCarthy, Josh McCrone, Taane Milne, Shaun Nona, Russell Packer, Joel Thompson, Siliva Halivi, Will Matthews, Jake Marketo, Izaac Thompson, Yaw Kiti Glymin
Draw Overview
Number of games vs my top rated 7 teams: 10
Teams they play twice: Sharks, Knights, Rabbitohs, Warriors, Roosters, Storm, Bulldogs, Eels, Wests Tigers
Teams they play once: Broncos, Titans, Raiders, Panthers, Sea Eagles, Cowboys
Preview Thoughts
It’s a season of zero excuse – this list and coach are key semi final contenders or their needs to be a massive shake up and overhaul. They add Graham and Hunt to successful addition of Vaughn last year, have a very strong forward line up and now (on paper) what looks a quality halves pairing. Hunt clearly needs to step up, the combination needs to work and they need to get off the roller coaster of form that they have ridden through recent seasons and step into a possible top 6 role. Can the coach add some positive tweaks to their attack, forward play and how he uses his halves? They look (and rate) a top 6 contender, I’m unconvinced on the coach (and have been for numerous years), time will tell.
Raiders
| Raiders | Rate | Table | Won | Against | Av. | Differential |
| 2018 | 8 | |||||
| 2017 | 4 | 10 | 11 | 497 | 20.7 | +61 |
| 2016 | 8 | 2 | 17 | 456 | 19.0 | +232 |
| 2015 | 15 | 10 | 10 | 569 | 23.7 | +8 |
Player List
Gains: Brad Abbey, Charlie Gubb, Siliva Havili, Sam Williams, Craig Garvey, Sitiveni Moceidreke, Stefano Hala, Ata Hingano
Losses: Adam Clydsdale, Lachlan Croker, Jeff Lima, Clay Priest, Zac Santo, Scott Sorensen, Dave Taylor, Jordan Turner, Kurt Baptiste
Draw Overview
Number of games vs my top rated 7 teams: 11
Teams they play twice: Titans, Warriors, Sea Eagles, Bulldogs, Rabbitohs, Sharks, Cowboys, Panthers, Wests Tigers
Teams they play once: Knights, Eels, Dragons, Broncos, Storm, Roosters
Preview Thoughts
Minor tweaks to playing list, but a massive loss with Josh Hodgson likely out for most of the season with his ACL injury. This team and list finished 2nd two seasons ago and then proved major under performers last year with what looked a dose of complacency. All suggestions are they have made some major tweaks to their fitness and off season program, if they can manufacture a suitable solution to #9 there’s no doubt they have the quality and depth to again be a top 8 player. They have attack and points, home advantage but at times defensive brain explosions. Look to be one of a group of teams who could finish anywhere from 7th to 12th I have rated them 8.
Panthers
| Panthers | Rate | Table | Won | Against | Av. | Differential |
| 2018 | 9 | |||||
| 2017 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 459 | 19.1 | +39 |
| 2016 | 12 | 6 | 14 | 463 | 19.2 | +100 |
| 2015 | 5 | 11 | 9 | 477 | 19.8 | -78 |
Player List
Gains: James Maloney, Tyrone Phillips
Losses: Sitaleki Akauola, Zach Dockar-Clay, Samisoni Langi, Matt Moylan, Darren Nicholls, Mitch Rein, Mason Cerruto, Stefano Hala, Bryce Cartwright, Leilani Latu
Draw Overview
Number of games vs my top rated 7 teams: 10
Teams they play twice: Eels, Bulldogs, Cowboys, Titans, Sharks, Knights, Raiders, Sea Eagles, Warriors
Teams they play once: Rabbitohs, Wests Tigers, Dragons, Roosters, Broncos, Storm
Preview Thoughts
What do I say. A team list and junior development that reeks ability an depth and should now be a top 4 contender yet weighted down with under performance. Since looking a likely top 4 contender last year they have since lost Moylan, Cartwright, Latu and Te Maire Martin – and have Peachy on the way out, that’s major quality lost to this list. Maloney could well be a positive signing but he is now at the back end of his career and one wonders how strongly the hunger still burns. Nathan Cleary we know is a rising star, but he and this list deserve some strong, quality direction. I have been on the record for a number of years that I am not a fan of Griffin as a coach and I have not doubt this will again be an issue this season. Highly inconsistent, could finish bottom of the 8 (or lower), should be top 4, not for me.
Sea Eagles
| Sea Eagles | Rate | Table | Won | Against | Av. | Differential |
| 2018 | 10 | |||||
| 2017 | 13 | 6 | 14 | 512 | 21.3 | +40 |
| 2016 | 6 | 13 | 8 | 563 | 23.4 | -109 |
| 2015 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 492 | 20.5 | -34 |
Player List
Gains: Joel Thompson, Lachlan Croker, Jack Gosiewski, Toafofoa Sipley
Losses: Pita Godinet, Blake Green, Brenton Lawrence, Jesse Martin, Billy Bainbridge, Jarrad Kennedy
Draw Overview
Number of games vs my top rated 7 teams: 11
Teams they play twice: Knights, Eels, Raiders, Titans, Wests Tigers, Roosters, Broncos, Storm, Panthers
Teams they play once: Rabbitohs, Cowboys, Warriors, Dragons, Sharks, Bulldogs
Preview Thoughts
Minor tweaks to playing list, but loss of Green looks the key and I can’t but rate them down for this. Foran a number of seasons ago proved the right foil (director of play) to allow their combination and DCE’s brilliance to shine, it was then lost in 2016 but with the signing of the experienced Green last season reemerged with an excellent combination and DCE returning to his best with an excellent stand out season. What now? Until we see what and how this resolves itself it has to be marked a negative. Strong forward list, Thompson a good get, stars in the Trbojevic brothers and Walker, questions on edge depth and long term quality, and overall defence and differential have hardly changed over recent yrs and still a concern conceding 22 points a week. Another who look to be one of those sides who could finish anywhere from 7th to 12th, I placed them 10.
Rabbitohs
| Rabbits | Rate | Table | Won | Against | Av. | Differential |
| 2018 | 11 | |||||
| 2017 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 564 | 23.5 | -100 |
| 2016 | 3 | 12 | 9 | 549 | 22.8 | -76 |
| 2015 | 2 | 7 | 13 | 467 | 19.4 | -7 |
Player List
Gains: Jesse Arthars, Dane Gagai, Jacob Gagan, Richard Kennar, Jesse Martin, Mark Nicholls, Vincent Leuluai
Losses: Bryson Goodwin, Jack Gosiewski, Aaron Gray, David Tyrrell, Anthony Cherrington, Brett Greinke, Luke Kelly, Dane Nielsen, Toby Rudolf, Sitiveni Moceidreke
Draw Overview
Number of games vs my top rated 7 teams: 12
Teams they play twice: Broncos, Raiders, Bulldogs, Warriors, Cowboys, Eels, Dragons, Roosters, Wests Tigers
Teams they play once: Sharks, Titans, Sea Eagles, Storm, Knights, Panthers
Preview Thoughts
New Coach – Anthony Seibold
One major signing in Gagai, plus the key return from injury of Greg Inglis. Appear to have invested in development and or the signing of numerous youngsters. The early signs look positive, they have looked very fit in their trials and had a very positive preparedness to use, shift and run the footy and not just try and graft through the middle. Their best 13 look a very competitive line up but as was the case last season any key injuries or key outs for extended periods exposed some depth issues that still look to remain. At their best and a run with out injury I’d have them competing for a bottom of the top 8 spot and finals but this looks a very competitive year and I marked them 11.
Bulldogs
| Bulldogs | Rate | Table | Won | Against | Av. | Differential |
| 2018 | 12 | |||||
| 2017 | 10 | 11 | 10 | 455 | 18.9 | -95 |
| 2016 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 448 | 18.6 | +58 |
| 2015 | 4 | 5 | 14 | 480 | 20.0 | +42 |
Player List
Gains: Fa’amanu Brown, Kieran Foran, Ofahiki Ogden, Clay Priest, Aaron Woods, Jeremy Marshall-King, Mason Cerruto, Moses Suli, John Olive
Losses: Brad Abbey, James Graham, Sam Kasiano, Richard Kennar, Tyrone Phillips, Josh Reynolds, Craig Garvey, Chase Stanley, Brenko Lee
Draw Overview
Number of games vs my top rated 7 teams: 12
Teams they play twice: Roosters, Panthers, Rabbitohs, Raiders, Broncos, Eels, Sharks, Wests Tigers, Dragons
Teams they play once: Storm, Cowboys, Titans, Knights, Sea Eagles, Warriors
Preview Thoughts
New Coach – Dean Pay
Lots of unknowns here with a new coach and some major signings, and losses. Woods and Foran are their key acquisitions but I am yet to be convinced if they are the right ones to take them forward, in particular Foran off the back of his well publicised issues and injuries across recent seasons. Another key question remains their halves pairing, quality of combination and depth should they strike injury. I am sure we will see a completely different brand and system of play under Pay, and I expect for the positive. Looks a new year of development, refining and rebuilding but they could surprise with a very positive attitude and lots of enthusiasm on the back of whats been disclosed in their recent trials.
Knights
| Knights | Rate | Table | Won | Against | Av. | Differential |
| 2018 | 15 | |||||
| 2017 | 16 | 16 | 5 | 648 | 27.0 | -220 |
| 2016 | 14 | 16 | 1 | 800 | 33.3 | -495 |
| 2015 | 11 | 16 | 8 | 612 | 25.5 | -154 |
Player List
Gains: Herman Ese’ese, Slade Griffin, Aidan Guerra, Chris Heighington, Jacob Lillyman, Tautau Moga, Mitchell Pearce, Kalyn Ponga, Connor Watson
Losses: Brendan Elliot, Jaelen Feeney, Dane Gagai, Jacob Gagan, Rory Kostjasyn, Jesse Martin, Sam Mataora, Chanel Matautia, Peter Matautia, Jarrod Mullen, Mickey Paea, Josh Starling, Jack Stockwell, Anthony Tupou, Joe Wardle, Tyler Randell, Pauli Pauli, David Bhana, Will Pearsall,, Trent Hodkinson
Draw Overview
Number of games vs my top rated 7 teams: 12
Teams they play twice: Sea Eagles, Titans, Roosters, Storm, Eels, Wests Tigers, Panthers, Sharks, Dragons
Teams they play once: Raiders, Broncos, Bulldogs, Rabbitohs, Cowboys, Warriors
Preview Thoughts
The Newcastle team carrying high expectation. A long list of quality and positive signings and major reshape of their top squad, most notably their key spine of 9, 7, 6 and 1. On the back of all of this I have improved their rating significantly (approx 12%) but lets not forget its still a long climb back for a team who have finished 3 consecutive seasons in 16th spot with the wooden spoon. They will play with an advantage at home but serious question marks remain over key combinations, the age and hunger of some of their forwards and importantly the level of improvement required in defence. I do expect major improvement, with some luck they cold knock on the door of the top 8, but I place them in teh group missing the finals and somewhere 9th to 14th.
Titans
| Titans | Rate | Table | Won | Against | Av. | Differential |
| 2018 | 13 | |||||
| 2017 | 9 | 15 | 7 | 638 | 26.5 | -190 |
| 2016 | 16 | 8 | 11 | 497 | 20.7 | +11 |
| 2015 | 16 | 14 | 9 | 636 | 26.5 | -197 |
Player List
Gains: Jai Arrow, Mitch Rein, Jack Stockwell, Jai Whitbread, Leilani Latu, Will Matthews, Michael Gordon, Brenko Lee, Bryce Cartwight
Losses: Chris McQueen, Agnatius Paasi, Nathaniel Peteru, Pat Politoni, Leivaha Pulu, Tyrone Roberts, Dan Sarginson, Tyler Cornish, Chris Grevsmuhl, Eddy Pettybourne, Ryan Simpkins, Daniel Vidot, William Zillman, Jarryd Hayne, John Olive
Draw Overview
Number of games vs my top rated 7 teams: 11
Teams they play twice: Broncos, Raiders, Sea Eagles, Storm, Knights, Warriors, Cowboys, Panthers, Roosters
Teams they play once: Sharks, Bulldogs, Eels, Rabbitohs, Dragons, Wests Tigers
Preview Thoughts
New Coach – Garth Brennan, major changes to staff and structure.
Major list reshape and turn over, list changes small plus to their overall rating, but they face a very tough draw and have now for a number of years provided a very poor defensive record. Another team who look in rebuild and reshape with likely improvement, but I can’t place them any higher longer term than bottom 4.
NZ Warriors
| Warriors | Rate | Table | Won | Against | Av. | Differential |
| 2018 | 14 | |||||
| 2017 | 6 | 13 | 7 | 575 | 23.9 | -131 |
| 2016 | 11 | 10 | 10 | 601 | 25.0 | -88 |
| 2015 | 8 | 13 | 9 | 588 | 24.5 | -143 |
Player List
Gains: Gerard Beale, Adam Blair, Tohu Harris, Peta Hiku, Matiu Love-Henry, Agnatius Paasi, Leivaha Pulu, Blake Green, Anthony Gelling
Losses: Bureta Faraimo, Kieran Foran, Charlie Gubb, Ryan Hoffman, Jacob Lillyman, Ben Matulino, Toafofoa Sipley, Bodene Thompson, Manu Vatuvei, Ofahiki Ogden, Matthew Allwood, Ata Hingano
Draw Overview
Number of games vs my top rated 7 teams: 12
Teams they play twice: Roosters, Storm, Cowboys, Broncos, Dragons, Panthers, Raiders, Bulldogs, Titans
Teams they play once: Wests Tigers, Eels, Rabbitohs, Sea Eagles, Sharks, Knights
Preview Thoughts
Have not finished higher than 13th last 3 seasons, perennial disappointments and I see something very similar again this year. Yes they have made some key signings, but don’t they most years yet then remain the car park of the NRL – the place talent parks and idles? They have equally the hardest draw of any team in 2018 with 12 games vs potential top 7 sides, plus have a horrible away/travel record winning 1, yep just 1 away game in Oz last year. Add to this the focus on a very conservative high % safety first attack plan that rarely wins you footy games – not for me. A rabble who need a massive shake out.
Wests Tigers
| Tigers | Rate | Table | Won | Against | Av. | Differential |
| 2018 | 16 | |||||
| 2017 | 15 | 14 | 7 | 571 | 23.7 | -158 |
| 2016 | 15 | 9 | 11 | 607 | 25.2 | -108 |
| 2015 | 14 | 15 | 8 | 562 | 23.4 | -75 |
Player List
Gains: Mahe Fonua, Pita Godinet, Benji Marshall, Ben Matulino, Chris McQueen, Taane Milne, Russell Packer, Josh Reynolds, Robbie Rochow, Corey Thompson
Losses: Matt Ballin, Justin Hunt, Jamal Idris, Jordan Rankin, Ava Seumanufagai, James Tedesco, Aaron Woods, Joel Edwards, Jack Littlejohn, Kyle Lovett, Moses Suli
Draw Overview
Number of games vs my top rated 7 teams: 11
Teams they play twice: Roosters, Bulldogs, Raiders, Dragons, Sea Eagles, Rabbitohs, Storm, Knights, Eels
Teams they play once: Broncos, Warriors, Cowboys, Panthers, Sharks, Titans
Preview Thoughts
Try as I could I still could not improve he Tigers rating significantly. I’m a huge fan of the coach, so a major plus and they’ll also benefit with he now having a full off season with them. I have also allowed for a positive rating for the list make over and some positive signings but they still have a lot to do with their list to be a major player week in week out against the top 4 to 6 sides. They also face a very tough draw, have a poor away record, rarely have a major home advantage and consistently leak 24 to 26 points most weeks. Another with likely improvement and rebuild, but hard to rate any higher than a bottom 3 or 4 prospect.
NRL – MrG
Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.
Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.
Mr G can also be heard on Talkin Sport each week across the 2sm and Super Radio network talking with Graeme Huges and the boys providing his opinion on all things rugby league.
Results 2013-17
Profit +104.79 units
358 winners / 662 bets | strike rate 54.1%
2017: Profit +7.3 units | 61 winners / 116 bets | strike rate 52.6%
2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%
2015 – Profit +22.5 units | 67 winners / 117 bets | Strike Rate 57.3%
2014 – Profit +39.2 units | 74 winners / 135 bets | Strike Rate 54.8%
Example NRL Weekly Content
Note: All weekly message threads (round by round) for seasons 2017 and 2016 are now free to view for anyone to see and view the week to week content, layout and analysis from Mr.G – click here and scroll down the page and click into any round by round message thread
I’ve followed MrG and his rugby league work for the last 5 years, across numerous free forums and now on this website. I love his insight, his pre game opinions and the fact that more often than not he gets it right. – Grant W, Brisbane
Best NRL opinion in the business, knows his stuff and consistently finds the right angles to bet. Back for my 5th year, thanks again. – Ron, Charlestown
Quality Offering
At Reading The Play we don’t just provide a bet list, we also offer individual game previews behind any betting plays, key information, analysis and our experts “read” on what is likely to unfold – an informed opinion. Our subscribers enjoy pre game preview thoughts and rational that not only provides them with a potential betting play but a broader “feel” and connection to each game.
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