NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 22 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+8.5 Dragons vs Broncos

+3.5 Eels vs Eagles

+14.5 Knights vs Bulldogs

-5.5 Sharks vs Raiders

-24.5 Storm vs Rabbits

-4.5 Titans vs Warriors

+9.5 Tigers vs Cowboys

-3.5 Panthers vs Roosters


NRL Round 22 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Dragons vs Broncos under 37.5 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 1 unit Raiders H2H $2.93 Pinnacle

Bet 2 units Raiders +6.5 $1.92 Pinnacle / Luxbet / Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Storm -18.0 Pinnacle $1.93 / Topsport / or -18.5

Bet 4 units Cowboys -1.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / TabSportsbet BB

Notes:

Cowboys bet nominated a week ago, and I want to anchor this for this weekend we are now well ahead of the market.

Broncos get key players back, Bennett will be focused on D and keeping things simple, Broncos have a long record of unders when on the road and I expect they are much better here

Eagles some risk, Eels have 3 key ins and back at home,the plus looks a nice advantage – but I want 8 or more

Sharks major risk this week for mine, Raiders have some advantage here, I like them H2H and the plus position

Weather and market watch on Storm-Rabbits, Titans-Warriors and Panthers-Roosters, I think the visitors in both later games are positioned to advantage

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Current record vs Top 8 prior to this round

8/9 Sharks

5/7 Storm

5/9 Raiders

4/8 Bulldogs

4/8 Cowboys

5/12 Dragons

3/9 Broncos

3/10 Panthers

3/10 Warriors

3/12 Eels

2/8 Titans

2/9 Tigers

1/9 Eagles

1/10 Roosters

0/9 Knights

0/7 Rabbits


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Eagles, Bulldogs, Raiders, Storm, Warriors, Cowboys, Roosters


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Dragons vs Broncos

+8.5 Dragons

Stats

The Dragons and Broncos kick off Round 22 in what shapes as a dour contest with 2 sides that are well and truly struggling for form. Wins have been few and far between for both sides in recent weeks (and months) with the Dragons losing 4 straight (& 6 of last 9), while the Broncos have lost 4 of their last 5 (& 7 of last 9). Brisbane has pretty much owned the Dragons since 2010, winning 10 of the last 11 clashes, including the previous 2 meetings at WIN Stadium. A Broncos try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 9 straight against the Dragons who have conceded the 1st try in 3 of their last 4. Brisbane is 8-11 ATS and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 8, but have covered in 4 of the last 5 against the Dragons. They are 10-9 Over in TMP’s, with 6 of their last 7 finishing that way, while 4 of the last 6 clashes with the Dragons have also gone Over. The Broncos have a 7-5 record against sides in the bottom half of the ladder with 10 of the 12 matches having a margin outcome of 13+. Despite their poor recent form, Brisbane’s attack still ranks 5th, while both their defence and differential rank 6th . Corey Oates is Brisbane’s leading try scorer with 12 but he has failed to score in 3 of his last 4 matches. The Dragons have won 6 of their last 7 matches at WIN Stadium but they are a 4 and 8 against sides currently positioned in the Top 8. They are 9-10 ATS and 6-6 against the Top 8, while they have a 7-4 covering record at WIN Stadium since 2014. The Dragons have the 2nd worst attack in the competition, while their defence rates 10th . They are 13-6 Under in TMP’s, with a 10-2 Under record against the Top 8, while 10 of their last 12 matches at WIN Stadium have also finished Under with only 2 of them finishing higher than 36. Kurt Mann continues to lead the way as Dragons 1st try scorer with 8 and he has now scored a try in his last 6 matches. The home team has failed to cover in the last 8 matches when Ben Cummins has been in charge.

Preview

Two sides still looking for form and a break through win. Broncos have lost 7 of their last 9 and conceded 30 or more points at 4 their last 5 games, but now have key player returns with Gillett, Thaiday and McGuire heading the list. I’m expecting a much improved offering from them here, focused on defence. Dragons have key outs with Frizelle and Thompson, form very poor losing their last 4, attack pedestrian, hard to get excited with though they did show some signs last week of trying to be more expansive yet just went sideways and still only scored 10 points…

Trick game, Broncos look to get their chance to roll their sleeves up and get back on the map here. Longer term Broncos road record is strongly unders, they do like to focus on defence and it is also very much Bennett’s mantra when backs up against the wall. Wet track, dour conditions, Dragons lacing two key backrowers and any attack, unders for me.

Broncos to win in dour low scoring arm wrestle.

Bet 1 unit Dragons vs Broncos under 37.5 $1.90 Sportsbet


Eels vs Eagles

+3.5 Eels

Stats

Friday Night Football sees 2 arch enemies going head to head when the Manly Sea Eagles travel to Pirtek Stadium to take on the Parramatta Eels. Manly has everything to play for, with a Finals spot still up for grabs, while the Eels are playing for nothing but pride. The Eels have recorded 4 consecutive victories over the Sea Eagles and a win this week will be just the 3rd time in their history that they have recorded 5 straight wins over their arch rivals. Bragging rights have been shared equally at Pirtek Stadium with both sides recording 11 wins each, while Manly holds a 33 game all time advantage. The Eels have won only 3 of their 7 games at their traditional home ground this season, while they are 5-4 against sides in the bottom 8. They have lost 4 of their last 5 and conceded 22 points or more in all 4 of those losses. They rank 12th in attack, while their defence ranks a respectable 4th, giving them a 17 point differential that ranks 8th . Parramatta is 11-8 ATS with a 3-4 cover record at Pirtek Stadium, while they have covered in their last 5 clashes with the Sea Eagles. In TMP’s they are 12-7 Under, while 4 of the last 5 clashes with Manly have also finished Under. The Eels have conceded the 1st try in 12 of their previous 15 games played at Pirtek Stadium and they have also conceded the 1st try in 6 of the last 8 meetings with Manly. After 7 straight losses, the Sea Eagles have now won 4 on the trot to be just 1 win outside the Top 8. Manly were conceding an average of 25 points a game prior to Round 17, but have conceded an average of just 12 points a game since the start of their winning run, with only the Storm conceding fewer points during that period. They have won 4 of their last 5 against sides in the bottom half of the ladder and have won 5 of their last 6 as a road favourite. The Sea Eagles attack and defence both rank 11th, while their -40 differential also rates 11th . Manly are 9-10 ATS and have covered in their last 5 straight, while they have also covered in 4 of their last 5 against a bottom 8 opponent. In TMP’s they are 10-9 in favour of the Under, while 4 of their last 6 away games have also finished Under. A Sea Eagles try has been the 1st scoring play in their last 3 matches and in all 3 of those, the try has been scored by the 4 th minute. Jorge Taufua has scored a try in 6 of his last 7 appearances for Manly.

Preview

The Eels are not legless here. They finally get 3 key player returns with Scott, Jennings and M’au, they play from their traditional home track and they have a very good record of aiming up against their arch rival opponent. While they have been fairly beaten at their last few outings they have been under manned, have still retained effort and attitude, and they weren’t that far away from the Tigers last week where a couple of plays could have gone their way and have made that game far closer. What I am suggesting as while no rock solid finals opponent they haven’t completely rolled over and put the white flag up just yet.

The Eagles have been good to us through their recent run of wins but lets also be careful that the form is paper thin and we have picked them up when beating the likes of the Knights, Rabbits and Dragons, all bottom of the table losing teams. They are also not putting their foot to the floor for 80 minutes against these lowly sides, a poor sign, and are heavily reliant on playing their attack to just one side of the field (left) off DCE which I am sure Brad Arthur will be a wake up to. Also, if you were to have a long look at the record of sides who have beaten the Knights they do not fare well at the line the following week (soft win, complacent mental let down).

The Eagles still have something to play for, and I expect they can squeak home with a win here, but I do give the Eels a live chance, +6.5 is probably enough if you want to have an angle on teh game but for me I want + the key number of 8 or better if it was to possibly become available on Friday afternoon.


Knights vs Bulldogs

+14.5 Knights

Stats

The Knights play host to the Bulldogs in the 1st of 3 matches on Super Saturday. Newcastle has a good recent record over the Bulldogs, winning 6 of 8 from 2010 to 2013 before the Dogs recorded back to back wins in the 2 most recent meetings. It’s the 1st of 4 consecutive home games for the Knights who will be looking to avoid a new club record of 14 straight losses. They have lost their last 6 at home after their 1st and only win of the season back in Round 6. The Knights remain in 16th spot and rank last in both attack and defence. Newcastle is 7-12 ATS, with a 4-4 cover record at home, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 at home with a double digit advantage. They are 11-8 Over in TMP’s and have traditionally been a big Overs side at home in day games, producing a 14-7 result since 2014, while their last 6 Saturday afternoon matches have all finished Over, but clashes with the Bulldogs defy the trend as only twice in the last 13 meetings have the TMP’s been higher than 38 with an average of 36. A Knights try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Dogs at Hunter Stadium, while the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 7th minute in 8 of the last 10 clashes. The Bulldogs returned to the winners circle last week but were hardly convincing. They have won 5 of their last 6 and 7 of their last 8 against a bottom 8 opponent, while 7 of their 12 wins have come on the road. The Dogs rank 6 th in attack, while both their defence and differential also rank 6th . They are 7-12 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 4 straight and in 4 of their last 5 when laying a double digit start. Road favourites laying more than a converted try have covered in 8 of the last 9 day games. In TMP’s the Dogs are 10-9 Over and have gone Over in 7 of their past 9, while they are 5-1 Over in day games this season. The Bulldogs have failed to score more than 6 2nd half points in the last 7 clashes with the Knights. Curtis Rona is the Bulldogs leading try scorer with 10 but he has failed to score in his last 2 matches.

Preview

Rubbish game. Bulldogs win, but have been pathetic for weeks.


Sharks vs Raiders

-5.5 Sharks

Stats

It’s 1st versus 3rd in what is clearly the match of the Round when the ladder leaders host the Raiders at Shark Park. While the Sharks winning run came to an end when they drew with the Titans, they are still undefeated from their last 16 matches, but the Raiders could well be the 1st side since Round 3 to deliver a defeat to Cronulla. The Sharks hold a slight 35-30 all time advantage over the Raiders who have won the last 2 clashes at Shark Park. High scoring affairs have been common place between these 2 sides in recent years, with 8 of the last 10 clashes totaling 40 points or more. The Raiders come into this match off the back of a 50 point demolition job on the Rabbitohs but they step up in class here against a side that hasn’t sat lower than 2nd since Round 10. Canberra has been 1 of the form sides in recent times though, winning 8 of 9 since Round 11 and no side has scored more points than the Raiders during that period. They have won 5 of their last 6 against their Top 8 counterparts and only once all season have they been positioned out of the 8. They come into this Round with the 7th best defence, while they are the NRL’s Number 1 attacking side, averaging 27 points a game. The Raiders are 12-7 ATS and have covered in 5 of their last 6 on the road, while they have also covered in 5 of their last 6 against the Top 8. Canberra is the Number 1 Overs side in the NRL, producing a 14-5 result, with 8 of their last 9 all finishing Over, while 9 of the last 10 matches where Ashley Klein has been in charge have finished Overs with all but 1 of them totaling 42 or more. The Sharks are yet to taste defeat at home in 2016, winning 10 from 10 and have won 14 of their last 16 as a starting favourite. Cronulla are the 3rd best defensive side in the competition, while their attack and differential both rate 2nd. Like the Raiders, the Sharks have a 12-7 record ATS but have covered in only 2 of their last 7 at home when laying a start. Cronulla is 11-8 Under in TMP’s, with a 7-3 Under record at home, while they are 12-6 Under since 2015 as a home favourite. A Sharks try has been the 1st scoring play in 10 of the last 12 meetings with the Raiders. Valentine Holmes has scored 7 tries from his 9 appearances at Shark Park this season.

Preview

I do like the Raiders here. They are not with out some risk (it is the Raiders after all) but they have plenty going for them here in what looks like it might be the right week. The positives for them is they get the Sharks when venerable, off a short turn around Monday night travel away game (and extra time), plus I think the mental expectations and baggage of this long undefeated run is weighting them (the Sharks) down a little. The Raiders have a big physical side, big bench, and are playing with some positive confidence right now and Stuart will be very pumped up to have them up and set for this.

The Raiders tho carry two risks. One is that they have been poor under expectation, and the last time then went into a game like this (vs a top of table contender) they shit themselves with a very very poor first 50 minutes vs the Broncos and had their pants pulled down. Stuart needs to keep them confident, but balanced, and it’s not always his strength. Their other major issue and will likely become even more apparent into the finals is the coach’s long term inability to coach attack in the final 20 mtrs red attacking zone. He is clueless, has been for 10 yrs, and staggering having been such a sharp international #7 and played under one of the best attacking minds in Sheens. As I have stated previously, the final 20 is about structuring and set up your sets of 6 to open a hole, create an overlap, put someone through the line, target a weak defender and play a smart kick piece. The majority of NRL teams today pass left and right for the sake of it, play after play and have no farking idea what they are doing or wanting to do, and just hope that they can either crash someone over the line or an individual piece of brilliance will create a try. Watch a replay of the first 30 minutes last week of the Raiders, just terrible, clueless, no idea, no plan, poorly coached, they should have scored at least 3 more tries. They are super when playing attack from a distance, they play with width, use the ball, momentum, have a preparedness to attack, I love it, but it all turns to you know what when they get anchored in that final 20 mtrs. So we have some risk here that they don’t murder possession when required.

I want to take the Sharks on. They have been close to a loss for some weeks and have some key things against them here. They are a good side, but a risk. The Raiders get their chance, they have much in their favour and if they can start well and hold their nerve they can give this a big shake. I want to be with them both ways.

Bet 1 unit Raiders H2H $2.93 Pinnacle

Bet 2 units Raiders +6.5 $1.92 Pinnacle / Luxbet / Sportsbet


Storm vs Rabbits

-24.5 Storm

Stats

The Rabbitohs travel to Melbourne to take on the Storm to close out Super Saturday in what shapes as a total mismatch. The Storm is in a rich vein of form, winning 12 of their last 13 and have opened at their equal shortest price of the season, while the Rabbitohs are faced with 9 straight losses for the 1st time since 2008 and will start at their longest price of the season. Melbourne has won 8 of the last 9 clashes and will be full of confidence to make it 9 from 10 as the Rabbitohs have never won a game in Melbourne, losing all 12 of the previous matches played in Victoria. Melbourne has won 8 of 9 at AAMI Park in 2016 and only once this season have they been beaten by a side currently sitting out of the Top 8, having won 9 of 10. The Storm are the Number 1 defensive unit in the NRL, while their differential of 244 also ranks 1st. Melbourne ranks 4th in attack, with an average of 24 PPG. They are 11-8 ATS and have covered in 9 of their last 12, while they are 6-6 at home since 2014 when laying a double digit start. The Storm continues to be the Number 1 Unders side in the NRL, producing a 14-5 result, with their last 3 totaling 36 or less, while 9 of the previous 10 clashes with the Rabbitohs have totaled 34 or less. Only once since Round 8 has the Storm trailed at half time and they have won 15 of 16 with a half time lead and only once in the last 13 meetings have the Rabbits led the Storm at the break. The Rabbitohs are coming off their biggest loss in 10 years after conceding 54 points against the Raiders and they have lost 11 of their last 12 when backing up from a 13+ defeat. They have conceded 20 points or more in their last 13 matches and also in all 7 games against a current Top 8 opponent, where they have lost 7 from 7, 6 of them by a margin of 13+. They have also failed to score a 1st half point in 5 of those 7 matches against the Top 8. Souths remain in 13th position on the ladder and have the same ranking in attack, while they are now the 2 nd worst defensive side in the NRL, conceding an average of 25.5 PPG. Souths are 6-13 ATS and have failed to cover in 7 of their last 8 and 12 of their last 14 when getting a start. They are 12-7 Over in TMP’s, with 4 of their last 5 away games totaling 42 or more. The Rabbitohs have trailed at half time in 13 of their last 14 matches and only the Knights have scored fewer 1st half points than South Sydney.

Preview

I have been waiting to see what the final weather looked here and given no rain forecast I am keep to play.

I am working on the basis of Smith and Cronk playing, my understanding is that they will and they have trained a full week this week unlike recent weeks where they have only done the final session. If you are nervous on this you might want to wait till an hour prior to game time for final team announcements.

The Rabbits are rubbish, and falling apart quickly, thumped last week by 50 in what could easily have been 70. They get a couple of players back including Inglis, but he is playing busted and they have little harmony or cohesion given all of the key team exits, injuries and changes through recent months, most notably in defence where they are just being flogged. They also have a disastrous record in Melbourne.

The Storm are top of the table, utterly professional. come off a quality away win over the Cowboys, have been super at home, and will just methodically work through their gears here and by games end I expect to be 30 or more points in front. What we also know is that they pride themselves in defence, and in giving up a big line I get significant comfort in this, add in teh fact the Rabbits just don’t have points in them.

I was conservative when I marked this 24.5, I could easily have been much closer to 30. Keen the Storm do the business here.

Bet 2 units Storm -18.0 Pinnacle $1.93 / Topsport / or -18.5


Titans vs Warriors

-4.5 Titans

Stats

There will be plenty to play for when the Titans host the Warriors in what is forecast to be a wet Sunday afternoon on the Gold Coast, with the loser likely to drop out of the Top 8. The Warriors have a dominant recent record over the Titans, having won 10 of the last 11 clashes, including winning their last 5 straight at CBus Super Stadium. Recent meetings have typically been high scoring affairs, with the last 8 clashes (and 15 of the last 17) all topping 40 points. The Warriors moved back into the 8 at the expense of last week’s opponent, the Panthers, in what was their 3rd consecutive match decided by Golden Point. Their last 3 matches on Australian soil have also been decided by GP with the Warriors losing all 3 to make it 5 losses from their last 6 away games. The Warriors are 3 & 6 against the Top 8 and have won only 1 of 5 against a current Top 8 opponent as the away side. They rank 8th in attack and 12th in defence, giving them a -17 differential that ranks 9th. For the 6th time this season, the Warriors will start as a road dog and they are yet to register a win in 2016 from that position and have lost 15 of their last 16 long term as a road outsider. The Warriors are 8-11 ATS, with a 5-5 road record, while their last away game was the only time they have covered as a road dog in a day match since 2014. In TMP’s they are 11-8 Over, with a 7-3 Over record on the road, while they are 5-1 Over from their last 6 day games away from home with 4 of them totaling 60 or more. The Titans are unbeaten in their last 3 after ending the Sharks winning run in Golden Point on Monday night, while they have lost only 1 of their last 5 at home. They have also won 4 of their last 6 as a home favourite. The Titans have now been in the Top 8 for the last 3 weeks, which is their longest period of the season that they have spent in the 8. Their attack and differential both rank 7th, while they are 8th in defence. The Titans have been the darlings of the NRL in line betting, covering in 14 of their 19 matches, including 8 of their last 10, while they have a 7-3 cover record at home. They are 10-9 Over in TMP’s, while 6 of their last 8 at home have finished Under. They have also had Unders results in 7 of their last 9 day games at home. Chris McQueen has scored 5 tries from the Titans last 5 home games.

Preview

Line ball game for me with a slight leaning for Warriors but tricky. Titans lose Roberts, key out at #6 and then get Hayne and the surrounding hype (which I think is very positive for the club, district and the game). They also get Peats back, another key in. The Warriors have a key out at #9 with Luke not playing.

There are two key issues for mine. The Titans come off a big game last Monday night, high quality, physical and extra time then some potential let down, and we saw the Sharks falter last night. I like what they are doing, I’m a rap on them, they have been very good to us this season, but this is a different set up for them as the highly focused fav. The next issue is the Warriors long term record both H2H and at the ground over the Titans, they have won a staggering 10 of the last 11 contests and their last 5 at the Gold Coast. Some sides just have a boggy side, and or grounds that they love playing at, and clearly there is some of that happening here. This game will now also draw a big crowd, but given the Kiwi following on the Gold Coast half of them will be Kiwi’s, so the Warriors will have their fair share of local support today as well – and importantly they turn up here with no focus, pressure or expectation on them and that can be when they play their best footy.

It’s a good match up of two teams that will look to play some positive footy. I love the Lolohea, Fusitua, Leuluai and Johnson combinations, skill and attack all over it. The Titans also have some smarts and punch with Peats, Taylor, Mead and then the use of Hayne most likely at fullback. Both teams also like to play off load and second phase footy, so I’m sure we will see plenty of open play and attack. I have a slight lean to the Warriors in what looks an excellent open game.

The total points overs looks the obvious play but with both goal kickers (Luke, Roberts) missing and Johnson having had some issues recently with a groin strain 48 might be a decent total to chase if missing kicks for goal.


Tigers vs Cowboys

+9.5 Tigers

Stats

History shows it’s now 16 years since the Cowboys last recorded a victory at Leichardt Oval, with the Tigers winning the last 5 clashes at the venue. It’s more than a year since these sides last met, with that match eventually becoming the lowest scoring match of the 2015 season and it was also the Cowboys 1st and only win over the Tigers in Sydney since 2004, with the Tigers winning the 11 previous clashes as the home team. The Cowboys have won 3 of the last 4 meetings with the Tigers who have lost 7 of their last 11 matches at Leichardt Oval. North Queensland has won only 1 of their last 5 away games but have won 5 of their last 8 as a road favourite. They have dropped from 3rd to 4th on the ladder after last week’s loss to the Storm but still rank as the 2 nd best defensive unit in the NRL, while they are now 3rd in attack rankings which sees their 201 differential also rank 3rd. The Cowboys have won 9 of their last 10 against sides currently sitting in the bottom half of the ladder and have covered the line in 8 of those. They are 10-9 ATS with a 4-5 cover record on the road, while they have covered in 5 of their last 7 when laying a start as an away side. The Cowboys are 11-8 Under in TMP’s, with 8 of their last 10 totaling 38 or less, including their last 5 away games. Antonio Winterstein continues to lead the way as the Cowboys leading try scorer with 11 and was the only try scorer in the previous meeting with the Tigers. The Tigers have won 3 of their last 4 and their last 3 at home but all of those wins have come against bottom 8 opposition. They have lost 7 of their last 8 against the Top 8 sides which doesn’t bode well for their Finals aspirations as 4 of their last 5 matches are against those sides currently in the 8. Only once from their 9 matches against the Top 8 have they outscored their opponent in the 2 nd half, averaging just 7 points, while conceding an average of 18. The Tigers are just outside the 8 in 9th spot, while they are 13th in attack and 12th in defence. They are 11-8 ATS and have covered in their last 6 straight, while they have covered in 6 of 8 games this season when getting more than a converted try advantage. In TMP’s they are 11-8 Over, while 7 of the last 9 clashes with the Cowboys have totaled 42 or more. The Tigers have conceded the 1st try of the match in the last 6 meetings with the Cowboys and in 6 of their last 8 when versing a Top 8 side. James Tedesco & David Nofoaluma have combined to score more than half of the Tigers tries since Round 13, with Tedesco scoring in 4 of his last 6 and Nofoaluma bagging 6 from his last 7 appearances.

Preview

Key ins and outs here with Brooks out for Tigers and Thurston in for Cowboys.

We will see two things about the Tigers here, how deep is the recent winning form through Eels and Dragons, I’m not so sure it is all that strong, and how they play against good opposition with makeshift #9 options and now no Brooks. In my opinion Taylor has let his person dislike and agenda with Farah get way in front of the best thing for his team, and it’s almost laughable to see a makeshift winger who struggles to maintain his position in 1st grade be used as your back up dummy half during crucial periods of the game. My understanding is that the finer detail for Farah’s severance and pay out with the Tigers was done last Wednesday and he will early this week be announced as a new signing with the Rabbits on a 2 yr deal.

The Cowboys come off strong form through the Storm, put the cleaners through the Bulldogs only weeks ago and clearly have Thurston back. This ground is a long term boggy ground for them, having only ever won the once here, but I am expecting off a loss last week the result here and how they go about it is important.

Our early bet last week has put us well ahead of where the market now is, I expect Cowboys win and we’ll be very happy at anything better than a 2 point margin.

Bet 4 units Cowboys -1.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / TabSportsbet BB


Panthers vs Roosters

-3.5 Panthers

Stats

Monday Night Football heads to the foot of the mountains where the Panthers host the Roosters to close out Round 22. The Panthers defeated the Roosters when they last met in Round 7 and will be looking for back to back wins over the Tri-Colours for the 1st time since 2012. Penrith had won 2 in a row before going down to the Warriors in Golden Point which saw them drop from 8th to 9th and not since Round 12 have they been able to remain in the Top 8 in consecutive weeks. They have 1 of the softest draws in the closing Rounds, with 4 of their 5 remaining matches coming against sides currently ranked below them. The Panthers rank 9th defensively, with both their attack and differential ranking 10th. They are 10-9 ATS but have failed to cover in their last 5 at Pepper Stadium and 5 of their last 6 when laying a start, while they have also failed to cover in 3 of the last 5 against the Roosters. Penrith are 10-9 Under in TMP’s and 7-2 Under off a loss, while the last 4 clashes with the Roosters have all finished Under, with none of them totaling more than 37. Monday night games are also in heavy favour of the Unders, with a 14-6 result season to date. The Roosters have lost 6 of their last 7 but only 1 of those 7 matches has been against sides out of the Top 8. They have lost 8 of 9 on the road, including their last 6 straight, but have won their last 2 at Pepper Stadium. The Roosters rank 14th in both attack and defence, while their differential of -126 ranks 13th. The Tri-Colours are 7-11 ATS and have covered in only 2 of their 9 away games. They are 13-6 Over in TMP’s, with 7 of their last 9 finishing that way. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in their last 6 matches and in 5 of them, the try has been scored by the 8th minute. The side to score the 1st points of the match has won the previous 9 clashes

Preview

I want to see how the weather fares Sunday and into Monday here, the forecast is for clearing and then clear Monday. I think the Roosters are a nice chance here and a likely small play with the plus.

Pearce now in significant doubt to play this evening so no play, no interest in 6.5 line either way. Market has moved from 4 to 6.5, without Pearce Roosters lose plenty and likely lose but I have no confidence in this Panthers side when expected favs winning and doing so by 8. Happy to pass.



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 22

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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Published on in NRL.