NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 19 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+2.5 Dragons vs Titans

+4.5 Eagles vs Warriors

+7.5 Rabbits vs Broncos

+12.5 Knights vs Storm

-7.5 Panthers vs Eels

+5.5 Roosters vs Sharks


NRL Round 19 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Titans -1.5 $1.91 Ubet / William Hill / Luxbet

Bet 2 units Rabbits-Broncos over 39.5 $1.90 Luxbet / 40.5 $1.90 Tab Sportsbet

Bet 3 units Knights +18.5 $1.91 William Hill BB

Notes

Another post Origin tricky round and only 6 games. I was keen on the Overs in the Eagles-Warriors game in Perth but for the forecast of plenty of rain. Broncos should win but have only done so at 2 of their last 8, are on the road, have key Origin backups, the game and line has risk. Leave me out of the Panthers, consistent under performer and I’m still to finalise thoughts and position for the Monday night game.

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Titans, Warriors, Broncos, Storm, Panthers, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Dragons vs Titans

+2.5 Dragons

Stats

Friday Night Football kicks off Round 19 when the Dragons host the Titans from Kogorah Oval. It’s the 1st of 4 matches in the Round featuring 2 sides that have had the week off and both sides will be looking to make a charge to secure a Top 8 spot. Recent meetings have been tight and low scoring affairs, with 5 of the last 6 clashes decided by a margin of 1-12, while 5 of the last 6 clashes have finished Unders in TMP’s. The Dragons find themselves in the Top 8 for only the 2nd time this season with a 50/50 win loss record and they will need to win at least half of their remaining games if they are to be any chance of playing Finals Footy. They have won 5 of their last 6 at the ground and have covered a line in 5 of those. The Dragons are ranked 8th in defence and 14th in attack, scoring an average of 13 points a game. They are split evenly ATS with an 8-8 record, while they are 5-2 when covering as the home side and have covered in 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Titans. In TMP’s they are 11-5 in favour of the Under and have a 5-1 Under record in night matches at the ground since 2014, while 5 of the previous 6 meetings with the Titans have also finished Under. A Dragons try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 6 clashes with the Titans, while the Titans have scored the last try of the match in the last 8 encounters. The Titans had lost 3 of 4 heading into the break and their post Bye record is a poor won, with just 3 wins from 13 matches since 2010. They are currently 10th on the ladder and are ranked 9th in both attack and defence and will play 6 of their remaining 8 games against sides who have recorded more wins than they have. The Titans are 11-5 ATS and are a perfect 6 from 6 when covering as a road dog. They are split evenly in TMP’s with an 8-8 result, while they are 9-4 Under in night matches away from home. Only once from the last 12 meetings have the Titans led the Dragons at half time and the Titans have also led at the break just once in their 8 previous away games. In 6 of the last 8 meetings, the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 7th minute. The home side has failed to cover in 10 of the last 11 matches with Matt Noyen as an assistant referee.

Preview

On the back of Titans naming one of their strongest line ups for some time and Dragons with two key late outs the visitors have been heavily backed with the market tipping full circle in just a few days.

The Dragons come off a rank offering vs Eagles, but as discussed prior to that game their prior form was equally thin and poor. They have had a bye break but I have little confidence in their coach let alone their offering, and ranked 14th in attack in this current comp they rarely have points in them and if chasing such here which is likely then they will have some problems. They do have the advantage of being at home and a recent winning record here, but again I’m not so sure of some of the depth behind that current record. Which they sit in 8th spot at present for mine this is by default and I am sure we will see them in free fall into the weeks ahead and they slide to their true position toward the bottom four.

The Titans as we know have an excellent record on the road and at the line, they are also the #1 cover the line team this season to date. I like the fact that they would have had a full week prep into this game with no disruption, full list, into a key game that they need to win to remain in finals contention. The way to play the Dragons as well executed by the Eagles last game was back through the middle with every opportunity, and where possible couple with this off load plays to break them up, then pick the right plays to spread to an edge. Also, playing up tempo with some quick play the balls (and these off loads) rattles their defensive set up as the Dragons like to play a few defenders into their tackling and try and slow things down more than many.

A game of two contrasting styles. Dragons will want to arm wrestle their way through a tough tight 80 minutes, Titans will be looking to break things open, play some footy, and shoot from in front. I like the Titans approach, I also like the fact that more often than not they are very well prepared, with an uninterrupted week and full list they get their chance to win here.

Bet 2 units Titans -1.5 $1.91 Ubet / William Hill / Luxbet


Eagles vs Warriors

+4.5 Eagles

Stats

A home game for Manly but both they and the Warriors will travel to Perth for their 2nd ever clash in the West and their 1st ever meeting at NIB Stadium. The Sea Eagles have a dominant recent record over the Warriors, recording 10 wins from the last 11 clashes, but have opened as underdogs for this encounter. It’s the final game of the season that the Sea Eagles will have to leave Sydney and they have lost their last 3 when travelling interstate. They broke a 7 game losing streak prior to the week off, but they have lost 6 of their last 8 when coming out of the Bye. Manly are 6-10 ATS, but have covered in their last 4 against the Warriors. In TMP’s they have an 8-8 record, while 7 of the last 11 clashes with the Warriors have finished Under, with an average of 38. A Sea Eagles try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 meetings and Manly has also scored the last try of the match in 7 of the last 8 clashes. The Warriors had won 4 of 5 heading into their Bye and the week off has served them well in recent seasons as they have won their last 9 matches when coming off a Bye. They have won their last 5 day time matches and covered the line in all of them, but they will need to overcome a poor record on the road though, winning only 2 of their last 11 matches played on Aussie soil. The Warriors are 7-9 ATS and have covered in 6 of their last 7 away games as a road favourite. They are 10-6 Over in TMP’s and in their last 5 matches as a road favourite, the TMP’s have totaled 44 or more with an average of 56.

Preview

Numerous key outs for both teams then long travel path to play in Perth.

After a long losing run the Eagles improved through the Cowboys then smacked the Dragons, and after the Titan toweling up of them (Dragons) last night that formline is also questionable. The Eagles up front 8 then halves look ok, but their three quarters and attack penetration looks an issue.

Warriors have won 4 of their last 5, the loss a close encounter with Sharks in Sydney, but this positive run is typical of their mid season fortunes through this Origin period, but they look to get another winnable game. They also have a good record when fresh off a bye, are far more accustomed to distant travel and have a good record in Perth.

Like the Warriors to win but the forecast rain throws numerous play options into doubt. An inch of rain is forecast for late arvo, should some of this come early then a 4 point line or the total points become guess work, happy to pass.


Rabbits vs Broncos

+7.5 Rabbits

Stats

The 2nd and final match on Super Saturday sees 2 sides in desperate need of a win when the Rabbitohs host the Broncos at ANZ Stadium. Wins have been few and far between in recent times for both sides, with just 1 win between them from their last 10 matches combined. Wins have been shared equally since 2011, with both sides securing 5 victories each, while the Broncos have recorded comprehensive wins in the 2 most recent encounters. In 6 of the last 7 clashes between the Rabbitohs and Broncos the winning margin has been by 13+, while 4 of the last 5 encounters have topped 42 points. Souths come into this match off the back of 5 straight losses to be looking down the barrel at 6 consecutive defeats in a season for the 1st time since 2008. They are now in 12th spot on the ladder to rank 11th in attack and 13th in defence, conceding 24 points a game and they haven’t been in the Top 8 since Round 7. They have trailed at half time in 10 of their last 11, scoring an average of just 5 1st half points during that time and only in 1 of those have they been able to overcome the deficit to win. They are 6-10 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 5 as a home underdog. In TMP’s they are 11-5 Over, with 7 of their last 8 topping 42, while 7 of their last 8 at ANZ Stadium have also finished Over and totaled 42 or more. Like the Rabbitohs, the Broncos too have been on a downward spiral and have dropped from 1st to 6th over the last 8 weeks. They have lost 5 of their last 6 and 5 of their last 6 played away from Suncorp Stadium, as well as having a poor record at ANZ Stadium, with just 2 wins from their last 8 games at the ground. After sitting 1st and 2 nd in defence and attack rankings in Round 8, Brisbane are now ranked 5th and 6th and have conceded an average of 30 points a game since Round 10. The Broncos are 7-9 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 5 and in 5 of their last 6 as a road favourite. In TMP’s they are split 8-8, with their last 4 finishing Over and in 3 of those 4 the total has been 54. Brisbane has scored the 1st points of the match in 13 of their 16 matches, while the Rabbitohs have conceded 1st points in 8 of their last 11. In the Broncos last 10 matches the 1st try of the match hasn’t been scored until after the 7th minute and this has also been the case in the Rabbitohs last 5.

Preview

Two sides spinning in circles looking for a win and some form. It’s more a choice of who doesn’t quite look the worse of the two than it is a form line to reference. The Rabbits have lost 9 of their last 11 games, a horrendous run, while the Broncos have lost 6 of their last 8, it’s not a pretty scenario. The Rabbits have through recent days sacked two top grade players (and at least we know they stand for something unlike a few other clubs), lose Inglis and have some doubts over Reynolds (although expected to play). The Broncos lose Parker but importantly get their other Origin players back who’ll they’ll desperately need here, especially on their weakened left edge.

Given the weakened and limping list that the Rabbits are playing with here the Broncos get their chance to break through and win. But the option that does look to stand out here is the total game points over, which by my model I rate a 80% chance. The Rabbits have been over at 11 of their last 16 games, the Broncos over at the last 4 outings, and 4 of the last 5 H2H games have been over three of which have seen scores near 60, I think that’s the right way to play this.

Bet 2 units Rabbits vs Broncos over 39.5 $1.90 Luxbet / 40.5 $1.90 Tab Sportsbet


Knights vs Storm

+12.5 Knights

Stats

Sunday football kicks off in the Hunter in what shapes as a total mismatch when the Wooden Spoon favourites Newcastle take on Premiership favourites, the Melbourne Storm. The Knights hold a 10-5 all time advantage over the Storm at Hunter Stadium but wins have been shared equally at the ground since 2005, with both sides recording 4 wins each. The majority of recent meetings have been closely fought contests, with 7 of the last 9 clashes having been decided by a margin of 1-12 points and 4 of the last 7 decided by 4 points or less. Newcastle has lost 10 in a row and their last 5 at home, conceding an average of almost 38 points a game and remain winless against a current Top 8 opponent. They have been anchored at the bottom of the ladder for the last 10 weeks and are ranked 16th in both attack and defence. Newcastle is 6-10 ATS with an 8-10 cover record since 2014 when getting a double digit start, which improves to 4-2 when those matches have been played at home. They are 10-6 Over in TMP’s, with a 6-1 Over record against the Top 8 at an average of 51. The Knights have scored the 1st try of the match in 6 of the previous 7 meetings with the Storm, but they have conceded the 1 st try in 6 of 7 at home this season. Melbourne has won 9 of their last 10 which has seen them sit no lower than 3rd on the ladder during that period. They are ranked 5th in attack and have the best defensive record in the NRL, conceding just 11 points a game. They have won 5 of their last 6 on the road and remain unbeaten against sides in the bottom half of the ladder, winning 8 from 8. The Storm is 9-7 ATS with a 5-3 cover record on the road, while they have a 5-7 record since 2014 when giving up a double digit start. They are 11-5 Under in TMP’s, with a 6-2 Under record away from home. Away teams laying a double digit start at the line have won 11 straight dating back to 2014. Suliasa Vunivalu has scored 16 tries in 10 appearances for Melbourne since making his debut in Round 7, bagging 5 doubles and 2 hat tricks.

Preview

Think this is the right week to take the risk of being with the Knights at home with a long line start.

One thing we have discussed during this season with the Knights has been the likelihood of them saving / playing their best when at home, and picking the right occasions when that looked likely. Until recent weeks they have gone through a terrible run of injury outs which with their thin and ordinary depth has left them venerable to some touch ups, but through the last few weeks this has changed with the key returns of Rochow and Saifiti last game and now here a further 4 key ins with Mullen, Pat Mata’uti, Pauli Pauli and Paea, plus they get Gagai back from Origin – it’s their strongest line up for quite some weeks.

Add then to this the fact that the Knights like playing the Storm and they are one team they consistently seem to aim up against, they have a long term 10-5 win record over the Storm in Newcastle plus they have also won 2 of the past 3 H2H (and should have won the latest clash in Melbourne earlier this season when they led right to the death). They are also well suited with their favoured weekend home game time of 2pm Sunday where they will have strong home support.

Clearly the Storm are top of table for a reason and at full strength with no issues they can threaten anyone at present. But into this game they will be without key forwards Mclean, Glasby and Asofa-Solomona, still have doubts over Harris and Munster and the possibility that Bellamy may rest Smith or Cronk at some stage (this week or at game in the weeks ahead).

While I expect the Storm win I do think their are multiple reasons to suggest a 20 point line is way too generous and a nice betting proposition. Knights at home, off bye freshen up, favoured home game time slot, excellent H2H record vs this opponent and importantly their strongest team list line up for months. This is also the longest line start they have received at home this season, I have it much shorter at something like 12.5 and for mine its the right time to be with it.

Bet 3 units Knights +18.5 $1.91 William Hill BB


Panthers vs Eels

-7.5 Panthers

Stats

Just another normal week for Parramatta who must now have the full boxed set when it comes to high drama and controversy, whether they can put that aside will have a major impact on the outcome of this week’s result when they travel to Pepper Stadium to take on the out of form Panthers. There hasn’t been much between these 2 sides over the years, with the Eels holding a slight advantage all time, while the last 10 matches played at Pepper Stadium have been split evenly since 2006. Parramatta had won 3 of the previous 4 before the Panthers grabbed a last minute victory when they last met in Round 5. The Eels have finally been stripped of their 12 competition points and as a result they are now in 14th spot, they are ranked 12th in attack but are equal 4th in defence (unadjusted). They have won 5 from 7 on the road this season, but have lost 7 of their last 10 as a road dog. Parramatta is 10-6 ATS and they have covered in 5 of 7 on the road, while the away teams have covered in 8 of the last 9 matches when Ben Cummins has been in charge. The Eels are 10-6 Under in TMP’s, while their last 3 have all finished Over. They have conceded just 2 tries through their middle 3rd this season (ranked 1st), compared to 15 at the same time last year. Bevan French has scored 7 tries in his 5 appearances for Parramatta since his debut in Round 12. The Panthers have now lost 4 of their last 6 and have conceded 24 points or more in all 6 matches. They are at home for the 2nd week in a row, but have won only 2 of 6 at Pepper Stadium this season. Penrith have now dropped to 10th on the ladder and are also ranked 10th in both attack and defence. They are split 8-8 ATS, with a 4-5 cover record at home and have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 when giving up a start. Their TMP record is also split 8-8 with 5 of their last 7 topping 48, while 7 of the last 8 clashes with the Eels at Pepper Stadium have topped 44. A Panthers try has been the 1st scoring play in 6 of the last 7 meetings with Parramatta at Pepper Stadium. Josh Mansour is the Panthers leading try scorer with 8 and 5 of those have come from his last 5 appearances.

Preview

Another game that has whiskers on it. The Eels lose Norman and Radradra and have makeshift combinations right across their back 7, especially in their halves. As again shown last week Arthur seems to keep finding a way to get them up and competing.

Less said on the Panthers the better. They were pathetic last week when gifted an opportunity to beat a weakened opponent at home, and as I outlined then Griffin has no idea how to coach attack. Yet they are again dished up as warm favs and a 12 pt line, give me a break. They get Moylan back but I couldn’t touch them with stolen money.

Panthers at home, but certainly a watch game.


Roosters vs Sharks

+5.5 Roosters

Stats

The Roosters will be looking to avoid 5 consecutive defeats for the 2nd time this season when they host the Sharks at Allianz Stadium in Monday Night Football. The numbers are stacked against the Roosters who have defeated Cronulla just 3 times in the last 11 meetings dating back to 2006, while the Sharks are chasing their 14th straight victory. The Tri-Colours have lost 6 of their last 7 and are yet to defeat a Top 8 opponent, losing 8 from 8. For the 10th week in a row the Roosters are anchored in 15th place, while their differential of -114 ranks 14th, as does both their attack and defence rankings. They are 6-10 ATS with a 2-4 cover record as a home underdog, while they have lost 6 from 6 as outsiders at home. The Roosters are 11-5 Over in TMP’s, with a 5-1 Over record at home when getting a start, while 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Sharks at Allianz Stadium have all gone Over. Matches refereed by Ashley Klein have also favoured the Overs, producing a 13-5 result season to date, including the last 7 straight. Home underdogs are 3-1 ATS in 2016 and 9-13 since 2014, while they are 3-5 over the same period when getting 6 or more points start. The Sharks continue to lead the competition with 13 straight wins and are looking to become just the 3rd side in more than 20 years to win 14 in a row. They rank 3rd in attack and have the 2nd best defensive record, conceding less than 16 points a game. Cronulla are 10-6 ATS but have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 when giving up a start of 6 or more, but have covered in the last 5 clashes with the Roosters. They are 9-7 Under in TMP’s, while 4 of their last 5 on the road have finished Over. Ben Barba has been the Sharks 1st try scorer on 5 occasions this year, while Valentine Holmes is their leading try scorer with 12. The Roosters have lost their 3 previous games of MNF and failed to cover in all of them, while the Sharks have won their 3 Monday night games in 2016 and have covered in all of them. Only 1 of the previous 8 meetings between these sides has been decided by a margin of more than 12 points.

Preview

Tricky game. Roosters have been good in patches through recent weeks but they keep promising something but can’t run out a strong 80 minutes and win. They do have their best line up for some time here and play at home, which is normally an advantage to them. Off a losing streak they will be keen to break through, but this is not an easy assignment.

Sharks have been very good, clearly won 13 straight and would have to be buoyed by their quality underdog win at Penrith last weekend when without all of their origin players. They get all but Fifita back and those players will have had a nice break since mid last week. Teams that are on strong winning runs breed confidence and belief and become hard to beat, even on an off day. The Sharks have attack options and seem to lift when required.

The Roosters have been heavily backed through the last two days with the line shortening from 6.5 to 4.5. I don’t want to play either way, I have tipped the Sharks but a tight close affair looks likely.

If you are looking for a betting interest to watch with the game then the Tri Bet either team to win by under 6.5 points looks the best play ($2.95 Sportsbet), which positions you for either team to win by a short margin up to 6.5 points.



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 19

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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