NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 17
NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 17
Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.
2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%
NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016
Rd 17 Game Handicaps
+3.5 Roosters vs Bulldogs
-3.5 Broncos vs Storm
-5.5 Warriors vs Titans
+5.5 Tigers vs Panthers
-17.5 Sharks vs Eels
-18.5 Raiders vs Knights
+12.5 Rabbits vs Cowboys
-7.5 Eagles vs Dragons
NRL Round 17 Recommended Bet List
Bet 2 units Broncos-Storm Under 39.5 $1.90 Sportsbet
Bet 1 units Storm +5.5 $1.97 Pinnacle
Bet 3 units Titans +12.0 $1.92 Pinnacle
Bet 3 units Sharks H2H x Cowboys H2H $1.78 Sportsbet BB
Bet 2 units Eagles -3.5 $1.90 Topsport
Bet 2 units Bulldogs -8.5 $1.87 Sportsbet
Bet 1 unit Panthers -2.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet
Bet 3 units Raiders -8.0 $1.88 Crownbet / -8.5 $1.87 William Hill BB
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons
Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).
Individual Game Tips
Bulldogs, Storm, Warriors, Tigers, Sharks, Raiders, Cowboys, Eagles
Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.
Key Contest Stats
Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @
Roosters vs Bulldogs
The Roosters will be fresh after the week off and they have won 6 of their last 7 when coming off a Bye. They will be looking to make amends after their last effort at home when they suffered their biggest ever defeat at Allianz Stadium, conceding 46 unanswered points against the Storm. The Roosters have a good recent record over the Bulldogs, winning 6 of the last 8 clashes, as well as winning 6 of the previous 8 clashes at Allianz Stadium, where the Dogs have a 50/50 record since 2010, winning 5 of 10. For the 8th week in a row the Roosters sit 2nd last on the ladder, with the 2nd worst differential in the comp, while they are ranked 12th in defence and 14th in attack. They are 5-9 ATS, with a 3-5 record at Allianz Stadium, while they have covered in 4 of the previous 5 clashes with the Bulldogs. They are 9-5 Over in TMP’s and clashes against the Dogs have more often than not, also been high scoring affairs, with the last 3 totalling 50 or more, while 12 of the last 14 clashes have totalled 38 or more. The Bulldogs will be looking to make it 3 consecutive wins for the 1st time in 2016, as well as defeating the Roosters twice in a season for the 1st time since 2012. A win will also see them move into the Top 4 for the 1st time since Round 4, while a loss could see them drop as low as 7th. The Dogs are ranked 5th in attack and 6th in defence, giving them the 5th best differential. They are 7-8 ATS, with a 5-3 covering record on the road, while they have covered in 3 of 4 in 2016 as a road favourite. In TMP’s they are 8-7 Over, with 4 of their last 5 totalling 50 or more. The Bulldogs have led at half time in their last 10 matches, but only once in the last 8 clashes with the Roosters have they led at the break. In 9 of the last 10 matches where Grant Atkins has been the lead referee, the home side has failed to cover the line.
Don’t like the game. Roosters off freshen up with 3 possibly 4 key ins to return (some whispers Cordner may play), have lost 4 of last 5 but with stronger list and Pearce calling the shots I expect to improve here at home. Bulldogs dusted up the Broncos last week but that second half was very soft, their halves still frustrate the hell out of me with their lack of ability to take hold of a game by the scruff of the neck and direct it as it should be played.
Bulldogs, but looks very even at the line and I shall just be watching.
Broncos vs Storm
To say that the Storm have a dominant record over the Broncos is an understatement, with Melbourne recording 16 wins from the last 19 clashes with Brisbane dating back to 2007, while they have also won 9 of the last 10 meetings at Suncorp Stadium since 2005. Brisbane is coming off their biggest loss of the season and they have now lost 5 of their last 7. Despite their poor recent form, they still rank 3rd in attack but have slipped to 5th in defence. They are 7-8 ATS and have failed to cover in the last 5 clashes with Melbourne. They do have a positive record when covering at home, producing a 17-8 record as a home favourite since 2014. In TMP’s they are 8-7 Under but their last 3 have finished Over, topping 44 points or more. Only once in the last 10 clashes with the Storm have the Broncos led at half time and they have lost 4 from 4 this season when trailing at the break. Brisbane is the Number 1 side for posting the 1st points of the match, opening the scoring in 13 of their 15 matches, but a Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in 10 of the previous 12 clashes with the Broncos. The Storm comes into this match with just 1 loss from their last 9 to sit comfortably in 2nd spot. They have won 5 from 7 on the road and they have also won 5 of their last 7 as a road dog. Melbourne has the best defence and the best differential in the NRL, while they are ranked 6th in attack. They are 8-7 ATS and are 9-7 since 2014 when getting a start on the road. The Storm has had Unders results in 11 of their 15 matches and this has also been the result in 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Broncos. Melbourne has scored the 1st points of the match in all 7 of their away games, while Suliasa Vunivalu has been their 1st try scorer in 4 of their last 5 away from home.
Broncos have lost 7 of their last 8, touched up last week, return home and do get a few key players back. The markets knowledge appears to be that Munster and Green will play here given the line position.
Two coaches who focus on, and pride themselves on defence, and I’d suggest with both having leaked points last week in particular the Broncos all of this week would have been spent focused in this area, in particular getting their heads right. I expect the Broncos will improve, and that we are in for a tight, tough, possibly scrappy game driven by a total group of players driven by defensive effort. Broncos have had problems in the halves,notably Hunt all season,his form is just plain terrible, but again I don’t expect their attack or running of the ball to have had much work applied to it this week.
Both teams come off short turn arounds into a Thursday night game. I want to be with the Storm, they have been winning, they have confidence and belief, have a good record at this ground, and defensively have been very tight most weeks. They concede only 10 pts a week most weeks, notably when on the road, and 6 of their last 7 road games have all gone under. Broncos longer term record defending at home is also good, with an average of near 12, and H2H these two teams last 5 games have all been tight offerings with totals averaging just 31 pts.
I just have to have a small play on the Storm here, the price and start is just too big for a winning side with such a significant record over their opponent and at the ground against a side who have lost 6 of their last 7.
Bet 2 units Broncos-Storm Under 39.5 $1.90 Sportsbet
Bet 1 units Storm +5.5 $1.97 Pinnacle
Warriors vs Titans
The only match of the round featuring 2 last start losers kicks off Super Saturday when the Warriors clash with the Titans at Mt Smart Stadium. The Warriors have won 9 of the last 10 clashes with the Titans, including winning 4 of the previous 5 clashes that have been played at Mt Smart Stadium. They have won 3 of their last 4 and 3 of their last 4 at home but are still yet to feature in the Top 8 this season. They come into this match with the 7th best record in attack but they are 13th in defence, conceding an average of 24 points a game. The Warriors are 7-8 ATS with a 3-4 covering record at home, while they have an 8-7 record at home when giving up a start of more than a converted try. They are 10-5 Over in TMP’s, with 7 of their 15 matches totaling 50 or more. A Warriors try has been the first scoring play in 11 of the last 13 meetings with the Titans and they have also scored the first try of the 2nd half in 8 of the last 9 clashes. Shaun Johnson has been the Warriors 1st try scorer in their last 4 games played at home. After recording 3 straight wins, the Titans have now lost 2 of their last 3, which has seen them drop from 8th to 10th on the ladder. They rank 9th in attack, scoring an average of 21 points a game, while they rank 10th in defence, conceding 22 points per game. The Titans have been very favourable ATS, covering in 10 of their 15 matches and they have covered in 5 of their 6 games as a road dog. In TMP’s they are 8-7 Over and 5-2 Over on the road, while the previous 7 (and 14 of the last 16) clashes with the Warriors have totaled 40 or more, with an average of 48. Only once in their 7 away games have the Titans led at half time and they have also led only once against the Warriors from the previous 8 meetings at Mt Smart Stadium. The Titans have the week off following this match and their pre Bye record is poor, recording just 3 wins from their last 13 matches. The home side has won 9 of the last 10 matches when Matt Cecchin has been in charge.
Warriors have to be a significant risk here, and while I expect them might well win the line is way long especially against a side like the Titans who a) have such and excellent road record as underdog, and b) will chance their arm in attack here and make things interesting.
The Warriors are rolling along with their typical mid season Origin run where they are winning against sides mostly carrying the burned of key outs or rep footy workload. They got the Sharks under such last week for a near win, struggled against a depleted Roosters the week prior. The walked through the Knights which is par for the course and when under serious focus and pressure aimed up to dust up the Broncos – a form line that right now also has its own question marks all over it. The key here is that having won 2 of their last 4 they have a soft glow about themselves of having dropped some of the pressure and importantly they are up against a team with no Origin baggage.
Titans look to have found their level through recent weeks, but that is a similar level to the Warriors, and for mine certainly not a level with a possible 14 point gap between them. They got steam rolled with some momentum last week vs Raiders, but they weren’t that far away. They have the best underdog away record in the comp, 25 line covers from last 36 road games (70%), and this gets even better when underdogs with 6.5 or more start covering 17 of their last 25 (70%).
I have also made the point previously that the Warriors are very poor home favs under expectation, especially through recent years when they have been such inconsistent head jobs, and just looking at their last 7 home games as fav against highlights this point, covering the line just 2 of those 7.
Warriors likely to squeak home with a win but the Titans with 12 point or better line start certainly the play here.
Bet 3 units Titans +12.0 $1.92 Pinnacle
Tigers vs Panthers
The Tigers had won 7 straight against the Panthers before Penrith recorded back to back victories in the 2 most recent encounters. The Panthers will be looking to consolidate their spot in the Top 8, while keeping at bay those behind them that are trying to take their place. A win will make it 3 consecutive victories for the 1st time since 2014, as well as making it 3 straight wins over the Tigers for the 1st time since 2010. The Panthers come into this match with a 7-7 win loss record, they are ranked 7th in attack and 11th in defence, while their differential ranks 8 th. All but 1 of their 14 matches has been decided by a margin of 1-12, with 7 of them decided by 2 points or less. They are 8-6 ATS, with a 5-2 covering record as an away side, while they are 5-3 since 2014 when giving up a start on the road. The Panthers are split evenly in TMP’s, with a 7-7 result, while 5 of their last 6 on the road have finished Under, with only 1 of them totaling more than 38. The Panthers last 4 matches at ANZ Stadium have all finished Under in TMP’s and have all been decided by a margin of 1-12. It’s a must win game for the Panthers, who play 3 of the Top 5 sides in their next 3 games. It’s the start of a tough run home for the Tigers, who play 6 of their last 9 games against sides currently in the Top 8 and they have only won 1 of 7 against the Top 8 sides to this point. They currently sit 12th on the ladder, with their attack ranking 10th, while they have the 2nd worst defensive record in the NRL, conceding 25 points a game. They have lost 5 of their last 7 at ANZ Stadium and 4 of their last 5 as a home underdog. They are 7-8 ATS and have a 7-5 covering record since 2015 when getting a start at home. They favour the Overs in TMP’s, producing a 9-6 result, while they are 7-4 Over at ANZ Stadium in night games since 2014. The Tigers have conceded the 1st try of the match in all 7 of their previous matches against a top 8 opponent.
Very tricky game with two teams harder to catch than trouble at 3am. And we saw all the best and worst of both of them last week, further underlining how tricky they are to catch. Panthers did everything as they should have to lead by 14 with 6 minutes left, at home, against an opponent (Rabbits) who have won just 5 games and are leaking 30 a week and were all out on their feet. They then let two soft tries in to just sneak home by 2 points. Tigers something similar, gone for all money with a terrible first half offering leaking 26 easy points, yet then following a half time rev up aimed up when it didn’t matter to make things some what close in the second 40.
If, and its a major if, but if the Tigers put their best foot forward here they have one of their strongest team lists with Farah back, quality attack and their best form better than their opponent. I lent that way but will staying well away.
Sharks vs Eels
The 4 th placed Parramatta Eels travel to Shark Park to tackle the table topping Cronulla Sharks to close out Super Saturday. Not only is this the only match of the Round featuring 2 last start winners, neither one of these sides has been beaten for the last 5 weeks. The Eels are looking for 4 straight wins for the 1st time since 2010, while the Sharks are aiming for a club record 12 consecutive wins for the 1st time in their 50 year history. The Eels have won 4 of the last 6 clashes with the Sharks, but have recorded just the 1 win from the last 4 meetings at Shark Park. Parramatta has had the week off but it hasn’t served them well previously, as they have lost 10 of their last 12 coming out of a Bye. They have won 5 from 6 on the road this season, while they are 4 and 4 against their Top 8 counterparts. Parramatta are ranked 13th in attack, but have the 2nd best defensive record in the NRL, conceding 14 points a game. The Eels are 8-6 ATS, while they are 6-6 since 2015 as a road dog. They are 10-4 Under in TMP’s, while 11 of their last 14 night games have also finished Under. The Eels have scored the 1st try of the match in 8 of the last 9 meetings with the Sharks, who have conceded the 1st try in their past 3 matches. The Sharks sit on top of the ladder for the 5th time in 6 weeks, they are ranked 4th in attack and 3rd in defence, giving them the 3 rd best differential in the competition. They remain unbeaten at home, extending their winning run at Shark Park to 8, when they snuck home last week against the Warriors. Their last 7 matches at home have been decided by a margin of 1-12 and this has also been the margin in 6 of their 7 matches against the Top 8, with the Sharks winning 6 of those. They are 9-5 ATS, while they have an 8-11 covering record since 2014 when giving up a start at home. The Sharks are 8-6 Under in TMP’s, with 6 of their 8 home games finishing that way.
Sharks clearly look the obvious here, and certainly should win, but just some caution with the length of line at -10.5 (12 pts). While they keep winning their record at the line is poor having covered just 2 of their last 6 at home, and just 4 of their last 13 when at home and favs conceding 6.0 or more. And just to add some spice to this the Eels have covered the line at 7 of their last 9 games when playing away from Parra Stadium.
The Eels are in a mess in every which way at present and have nothing to recommend right now. Sharks certainly should win, but I’ll pass on a 12 point line that then looks to make the game line ball.
Raiders vs Knights
The Knights travel to the Nation’s Capital in what will be a chilly Sunday afternoon in Canberra. There was nothing between these sides when they last met in Round 3, with both sides leaving Hunter Stadium with a point each but it shapes as a different contest this week. The Raiders start as the 2nd shortest favourite of the season and have given up the biggest line of any side since Round 25, 2014. They have won 5 of 7 at home and 4 of their last 5 which sees them sitting 7th on the ladder. They are ranked 9th in defence, while they are 2nd in attack, averaging 25 points a game. Canberra is 10-5 ATS and has covered in 7 of their last 8, while they are 5-2 at home. They have a 9-10 covering record as a home favourite since 2014, while home teams giving up a double digit start are 11-8 in 2016. The Raiders are a big Overs side, with 11 of their 15 matches finishing that way and they also favour the Overs in day games, with a 27-10 result since 2014. A Raiders try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 5 meetings with the Knights, while the Knights have conceded the 1st try in their last 7 matches. The Knights have now lost 9 straight and have conceded 20 or more points in all of those matches. They also remain winless on the road, conceding an average of more than 36 points a game. They are 5-10 ATS and have covered in only 1 of 6 this season when getting a double digit start. The Knights also favour the Over’s in TMP’s, producing a 9-6 result, with their last 3 all topping 48. There have usually been plenty of points on offer when these sides meet, with a TMP average of 48 since 2008 and 5 of the last 6 totaling 48 or more but the set point of 52.5 is too high for an interest. A winning margin of 13+ has been the result in 13 of the past 16 meetings.
Again some caution here. The Raiders will win, but the line and total look tricky positions, and I would certainly wait till the final Raiders team list was announced as I have signifiacant concerns that 2, 3 or more Raiders named players may well not line up, with Hodgson having had a few recent head knocks, Soliola carrying an arm injury, Wighton under some doubt, and possibly others. In what looks a straight forward result for the Raiders I would not be surprised to see Stuart rest some of these key players. That then makes a 26 point line and 54 point total positions a much more tricky equation.
Raiders to be winning, but I will be staying out.
Rabbits vs Cowboys
A home game for the Rabbitohs, but it will be played closer to the Cowboys home base when these 2 sides meet at Barlow Park in Cairns for the 1st time. The Cowboys have won 5 of the last 6 meetings with the Rabbitohs who have now lost 4 straight and another loss this week will make it 5 in a row for the 1st time since 2009. Souths remain 4th last on the ladder, while they rank 8th in attack and 12th in defence and only the Knights have conceded more points than the Rabbitohs since Round 7, at an average of nearly 30. They have lost 5 from 6 against a Top 8 opponent and have trailed at half time in all of those matches. They are 6-9 ATS and have covered in only 2 of 6 when getting a start. The Rabbitohs continue to be an Overs side in TMP’s, with their last 7 totaling 42 or more, while their 3 previous matches at Barlow Park have all topped 52. They have lost 3 of their last 4 heading into a Bye and they have also lost their last 4 matches against Queensland based teams. The Cowboys are holding steady on the ladder, remaining in 3rd place for the 4th week in a row. They will be looking to put back to back wins together for the 1st time since Round 9, going a win loss sequence through their last 7 matches. They rank 4th in defence, while they remain the Number 1 attacking side in the NRL. North Queensland is 8-7 ATS, with a 7-5 record as a favourite, while they have covered in only 1 of the last 5 against South Sydney. They are 8-7 Over in TMP’s, while 4 of the last 6 meetings with the Rabbitohs have topped 42. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of their last 9 matches and they have also scored the opening try in 5 of the previous 7 clashes with the Bunnies. This match shapes up as a high scoring affair, with both sides favouring the Overs, both sides also have Overs records in day games, since 2014 the Rabbits are 9-5 and the Cowboys are 4-1.
To be played in Cairns.
Rabbits have been in free fall for some time now losing 8 of their last 10 and consistently letting through 30 points a week, its a very poor record for a team who won the comp but 18 mths ago. Reynolds has been named but must still be in doubt and it appears Carter has been stood down or sacked through recent days. They lost one of these “distant” home games a few weeks ago to the Titans in Perth and they face the current Premiers who hold a significant H2H record over them at present.
Thought the Cowboys got lazy last week to start the second half, they led by 10 and looked to have the game to their keeping and normally put their foot down, then as the Eagles threatened they then did putting two tries back on the board within minutes to then go on and win. That’s the thing about this side this year, they have that belief and confidence to be able to back themselves out of just about anything if and when required. With this game in Cairns they have minor travel (about 90 minutes up the road) and will again have vocal local support, and with their ball movement should be able to open up and exploit the defensive deficiencies of their opponent.
These two have meet a number of times through recent years at Nth Qld venues and have often times turned into free flowing open attacking high scoring games. Certainly the Cowboys are stronger than they have been, the Rabbits weaker, expect the Cowboys win and could well do comfortably but off a Monday night game, at a neutral venue and with origin pending I don’t want to play with the 12 point line.
Eagles vs Dragons
The Sea Eagles host the Dragons in MNF to close out Round 17 from Brookvale Oval in what shapes as a lack lustre affair. The Dragons have won 15 of 23 all-time against Manly, but the Sea Eagles have prevailed in 4 of the last 5 clashes at Brookvale Oval. Things are becoming desperate for the Sea Eagles, who are looking at 8 straight losses for the 1st time this century. Despite going down to the Cowboys last week, Manly were close to a break through win and will have gained some much needed confidence. They will need to address a very poor home record, with just 1 win from 7 matches this season. Manly are 14th on the ladder, with their attack ranking 12th, while they are 3rd last in the defensive standings. They are 5-10 ATS and have failed to cover in 8 of their last 9 as the home side. Manly is 8-7 Under in TMP’s, while 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Dragons have also finished Under, with an average of less than 30. Only once in the past 8 meetings have the Sea Eagles scored the 1st points of the match, while the half time leader has gone on to win the last 11 matches. The Dragons are on the road for the 2nd week in a row after disposing of the Knights last week but only once in the last 5 years have they managed to record back to back road wins and they have also lost 2 of their 3 most recent matches against a bottom 8 opponent. They are currently positioned in 9th, with the 8th best defensive record, but they have the 2nd worst attacking record in the competition. The Dragons have been great front runners in 2016, winning 8 from 8 with a half time lead, but they have lost 7 from 7 when trailing at the break. They have averaged just 5 2nd half points this season and only once in 15 matches have they outscored their opponent in the 2nd half. They are 8-7 ATS, with a 3-5 covering record on the road, while they have covered in only 4 of their last 11 away games when getting a start of less than a converted try. In TMP’s they are 11-4 Under, with a 6-2 Under record on the road. The last 5 clashes have been decided by a margin of 1-12 and this has also been the result in both sides last 5 matches. The home team has won 10 of 12 matches refereed by Gavin Badger in 2016, while home teams are 9-6 in Monday Night Football. Teams off MNF have also won 9 of 13, while Monday night matches have an 11-4 Under record in TMP’s.
I think this is the right game for the Eagles. They have been getting key players back over the last few weeks, notably Cherry-Evans and Lyon at 7 and 6 to offer some quality and leadership, and their forward offering is much better than it has been with far more hit and hurt in it now with Fonua-Blake and Vave getting better by the week. I liked what I saw in the 20 minutes after half time last week in Townsville, down by a two try margin they could well have laid down and been run over but came back strongly, especially through the middle, and that is where you start when taking the Dragons on. They have now lost 7 straight but importantly return to Brookvale and have a long healthy 7 day turn around, off the back of that grit and determination we saw they look ready to really want to win.
Leave me out of the Dragons and their form line let alone their current table position, I expect we will see them hit free fall through the next few months and be exposed as a bottom table team. Look a little more closely at their 3 latest wins and they have beaten the Knights (ho hum) and just got over Origin depleted Storm and Cowboys. Only just a few weeks ago they were thumped by the Rabbits who themselves have only won 2 of their last 10 – its a weak form line. And if we want to qualify the Knights form line, the last 11 teams to play them (the Knights) this season only 3 of the 11 have gone on to cover the line the following week. It’s a soft form line that then more often than not bluffs the markets.
I want to be with the Eagles, looks the right week, at home, determined to win, against a side through for mine a paper thin form line.
Bet 2 units Eagles -3.5 $1.90 Topsport
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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 23
Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting
Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.
Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.
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