NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 15
NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 15
Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.
2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%
NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016
Rd 15 Game Handicaps
+1.5 Rabbits vs Eels
+2.5 Dragons vs Storm
-6.5 Warriors vs Roosters
-8.5 Titans vs Eagles
NRL Round 15 Recommended Bet List
Bet 2 units Storm +6.0 $1.91 William Hill
Bet 4 units Titans -4.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet BB
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons
Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).
Individual Game Tips
Eels, Storm, Warriors, Titans
Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.
Key Contest Stats
Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @
Rabbits vs Eels
The Rabbitohs will host the Eels at ANZ Stadium to kick off another abbreviated Round of NRL. For the 2nd week in a row, the Rabbitohs will play a side that they faced 5 weeks earlier. They snuck home in the 80th minute in the last meeting with Parramatta to make it 9 wins from the previous 10 clashes with the Eels, which includes the last 7 meetings at ANZ Stadium dating back to 2010. In 5 of the Rabbits last 6 wins over the Eels at ANZ Stadium the winning margin has been by 18 points or more with an average of almost 28 points. A Rabbitohs try has been the 1st scoring play in 11 of the last 13 clashes with the Eels who have conceded the 1st try in 4 of their last 5 matches away from Pirtek Stadium. Souths have lost both matches off their Bye to make it 6 losses from their last 8. Only once in those 8 matches have they led at half time and they have conceded 1st points in 7 of them. Since Round 7 they have conceded at least 20 points a game at an average of almost 30. They are 5-8 ATS and have covered only 1 of their last 7 at ANZ Stadium. The Rabbits have had Overs results in their last 5 straight to be 9-5 Over, while they are 5-1 Over at ANZ Stadium this season and only 2 of the previous 10 clashes with Parramatta have totaled less than 40. The Eels will be aiming for 3 straight victories for the 2nd time this season as they head into their final Bye Round. They have won 4 of their last 5 heading into a Bye and are yet to suffer defeat at ANZ Stadium this season, winning 3 from 3. Parramatta come into this match with 8 victories under their belt, which is just 1 shy of their 9 wins for the entire season in 2015. They are 7-6 ATS and have covered a line in 5 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium, while they have won 6 of their last 7 when starting as an away favourite. In TMP’s they are 10-3 Under and 9-2 Under at ANZ Stadium since 2014. Parramatta are ranked 2nd in defence but are a lowly 12th in attack to give them the 7th best differential.
A game I’m happy to stay well away from, with two teams clearly all over the place with application and result.
The Rabbits look a mess and if this had been against an opponent with any sort of decent form I’d be more than happy to take them on. Just look at their defensive offering across their last 7 games – 30, 29, 24, 20, 30, 30 and 44 at an average of leaking 30 points a game, and to think this mob won the comp 18 months ago. They have lost 3 of their last 5 and it could easily read 0/5, their coach now talks nothing but gobbledygook about their performances or attitude or alike, in my opinion he is now a dead man walking who has lost his crew and won’t be doing the job next yr.
The Eels come off a win in Darwin, possibly by default as the Titans into their 3rd consecutive road trip distant game and most likely tired of living away for 10 days offered poor resistance and terrible handling errors. As we know the Eels have their own massive problems to work through, will not make the semis, are playing with makeshift halves and right now its a guess in what mental shape they turn up one week to the next. I’m sure that sooner of later they will put the white flag up for the season but for the time being I’m happy to leave alone.
Tip the Eels with little confidence, maybe there is less expectation on them and they’ll enjoy that, Rabbits have further Origin outs and playing with little confidence.
Dragons vs Storm
The Dragons play host to the table topping Melbourne Storm at WIN Stadium in Wollongong in the only Saturday match of Round 15. It’s a fortuitous time for the Dragons to meet the Storm who will be without 2 of their best players in Smith and Cronk for Origin 2. Wins have proven hard to come by for the Dragons over Melbourne, who has won 5 of the previous 6 clashes. The Dragons will be aided by their home ground at WIN Stadium where they have won 5 of their last 6 and 3 of their last 4 against the Storm. They are on a short turn around but have won 5 of their last 7 at home off a 5 day preparation. Their record against a Top 8 opponent is 3 and 5, while they have won 10 of their last 11 at their suburban grounds. They are 6-7 ATS with a combined 12- 7 covering record at Kogorah and WIN Stadium since 2014. The Dragons are 10-3 Under in TMP’s, while 9 of their last 11 matches at WIN Stadium have also finished Under with only 2 of them finishing higher than 36. If the Dragons are any chance they need to overcome their inability to score 2nd half points, as they have lost their last 9 2nd halves, scoring an average of 4. They have the worst attacking record in the competition, while they are ranked 8th in attack, with only the Knights having a poorer differential. As mentioned, the Storm has a couple of key outs for this match and they have lost 5 of their last 7 without their Origin players, but they aren’t as heavily impacted as they have been in previous years. They have now won 7 straight, including their last 4 on the road and are conceding an average of just 10.46 points a game. They haven’t been positioned out of the Top 8 all season and have spent 10 weeks in the Top 4. Melbourne have covered a line in their last 6 to give them an 8-5 record ATS, while they have covered in 60% of their matches since 2014 as a road dog. Like the Dragons, the Storm also have a 10-3 Under record in TMP’s, with a 5-1 Under record away from home. They are the number 1 defensive side, conceding just 23 tries (10 fewer than the same time last year), while they have the 6th best attack. A Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in all 6 of their away games this season, while the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 8th minute in the Storm’s last 7 matches. It’s the team with the worst attack hosting the team with the best defence, the last 4 clashes have finished Under in TMP’s and with both sides in heavy favour of that outcome, the total under 34.5 looks a distinct possibility.
Dragons are without Dugan and now most likely Frizell to Origin. The Storm lose Smith and Cronk to Origin.
So we have the team sitting top of table with the best defence in the comp vs the team sitting 11th with the worst attack in the comp. Clearly the Storm are with out two key start players, but this is the least affected by Origin outs that they have been for many years only losing two players and right now they are buoyed with belief and confidence. Another key positive for them here is that last week they flogged the Roosters with Blake Green a key late out, and Harris has now played key roles at 6 and or centre this season so while not as polished or with the attacking skill of Cronk they might not lose as much as many think. The other key positive is Green, he’s a leader and he steps up in these situations, so while the headlines might read Storm playing without Origin stars I suspect a closer looks suggests that come into this game far stronger than previously.
As pointed to last week the other key issue here is the quality of their team defence. Frank Panassi the long term Storm football manage and key right hand of Bellamy was my assistant coach for two seasons when I coached rep sides at North Sydney in the 90’s, and we have often talked over the last number of years of the approach and program that Bellamy runs and his innate ability to coach defence (far far harder than it sounds). before the Storm grade or promote players on their list up to their top list, or purchase they review miles of video tape looking at the technical capabilities of a player in defence, how they tackle, technique in various situations, and so on. Then through the pre season and then during week to week preparations Bellamy consistently drills them through well through out sessions that continue to refine individual techniques, mental approach, toughness and team and positional formations and execution. He does it like no other of the last 15 years – and it delivers, you don’t average 11 points against after 14 rounds in today’s game without having done a hell of a lot of work on it and being bloody good at it (just look at their last 6 games in defence – 0, 6, 6, 14, 0 and 0). And this will take them a long long way into this game.
And talk about going from the penthouse to the basement in coaching discussions within a few sentences, leave me out on McGreggor. The Dragons struggled to just beat the Cowboys a few weeks ago at this home ground when they were without their Origin players and then when it mattered last week vs the Bulldogs rolled over meekly and conceded 34 points. They are very poorly coached in attack and can be easily frustrated and shut down by quality defence, I expect more of the same here.
I think the Storm can win outright and I certainly want to be with them with the plus start. Likely rain should only frustrate and make it harder for the Dragons against an opponent who are normally very disciplined.
Bet 2 units Storm +6.0 $1.91 William Hill
Warriors vs Roosters
The Warriors will be looking for 3 consecutive wins for the 1st time this season when they host the out of form Roosters at Mt Smart Stadium. The Roosters have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Warriors as well as winning the 3 previous meetings played in New Zealand, but with only 3 wins to their credit all season they are big outsiders for this match up. It’s the 1st away game in a month for the Roosters and just the 3rd time all season that they have had to fly to a venue. They have lost 6 of their last 8 distant away games and have registered just the 1 win on the road in 2015. For the 4th time this season the Roosters start as a road dog and they have won only 3 of their last 8 from that position. The Roosters are languishing in 15th spot on the ladder, with the 3rd worst attack and the 4th worst defence. They are the equal worst covering team in the competition with a 4-9 record and they have covered in only 1 of their last 6 distant/interstate matches, while interstate teams are 24-27 ATS in 2015. They are 9-4 over in TMP’s, while 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Warriors have topped 40 points. A Roosters try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of the last 10 meetings with the Warriors. The Warriors have more often than not gone on a winning run through the Origin period and have won 8 of their last 11 matches impacted by Origin. They have also won 3 of their last 4 at Mt Smart Stadium, with an average winning margin of more than 18 points. They are currently 9th on the ladder which is their highest position of the season. They are ranked 7th in attack but have some work to do in defence where they are ranked 14th. The Warriors are 7-6 ATS and are 8-5 covering at home since 2014 when giving up more than a converted try. In TMP’s they are 10-3 Over, with 9 of their last 10 totaling 42 or more.
Warriors rolling along for 3 wins in a row? Not sure how deep those last two wins are, Broncos were terrible and walked into a fired up Warriors desperate to perform, then a touch up job over the hapless Knights. Their last two efforts have looked much stronger, but this might be more of a test.
Roosters, well they again laid down last week and have lost 3 of their last 4. They also have a questionable long distance away road record, and a team list lacking some stability and attitude most weeks. Like the Rabbits, had they been up against someone with some more substance I’d be happy to oppose.
Warriors at home should win and cover, but leave me out.
Titans vs Eagles
The Titans are at home against the Sea Eagles in the only match featuring 2 sides coming off a loss to close out Round 15 in Monday Night Football. After 3 consecutive away games the Titans are back at home where they have been a 50/50 proposition this year, winning 3 of 6. They will be out to address a poor home record against the Sea Eagles as they have lost 4 of the last 5 meetings played on the Gold Coast and they have also lost the last 3 meetings straight. For just the 2nd time this season they start as a home favourite but they have struggled with the weight of expectation previously, losing 7 of their last 9 as a home fav. The Titans are currently 10th on the ladder and are also ranked 10th in both attack and defence. They are 9-4 ATS and have covered in 3 of their last 5 at home when giving up a start. In TMP’s they are 7-6 Over, while their last 4 at home have all finished Under. In MNF, they have a 7-5 record at CBus Super Stadium since 2008. The Sea Eagles have now lost 5 straight and another loss this week will be the 1st time in 12 years that they have recorded 6 consecutive losses. They are currently 14th on the ladder, ranking 12th in attack and 13th in defence, with 4 wins and 9 losses. Last week was only the 3rd time that they had gone to half time with a lead, but as was the case in their previous 4 matches, they were unable to go on with it in the 2nd half. Manly is the equal worst cover team in the NRL, with a 4-9 ATS record, while they are 4 and 4 since 2014 when getting a start of more than a converted try. They are 7-6 Over in TMP’s, while they are split evenly on the road over the last 3 seasons. A Sea Eagles try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 3 clashes with the Titans who have conceded the 1st try in their past 5 matches at home. Manly has won 5 of their last 6 matches of MNF on the road.
Eagles get Lyon and Taupau back but lose Walker, to Origin and are still without Cherry-Evans, Lawrence, Myles and Matai, four key outs and have Myles and have key attack players Tom Trbojevic and Stewart playing busted and week to week (or minute ti minute) propositions. The Titans lose Bird to Origin.
Titans return home and will have 9 day freshen up into this which are circumstances in which they preform best, also off a loss and ordinary offering last week to the Eels in Darwin where their handling errors were horrendous. The Titans have been good at bouncing back off a poor performance and are to advantage back at home with the long turn around. They have a nice balance of big physical forwards and some smarts in their halves, in particular Ash Taylor and are now starting to see some improved edge play from Hoffman and the addition of Hurrell. Unfortunately they can leak points, but unlike many of their opponents they don’t play to the scoreboard and consistently pick themselves up and are coached to play attack and consistently throw questions at the defence, which puts them right in and or winning the games that they do. I’ve been a huge rap on Henry as a coach for the last 10 years and again this year he has proven with a low budget makeshift list what a good positive attacking coach he is.
I’m happy to keep opposing the Eagles given their current difficulties, long list of key outs, having to play key players limping with injury and a mental state riddled with doubt and mounting pressure. Their last two outings are further examples of this, crumbling when it mattered to be steamrolled by the Raiders and then the Panthers, and don’t think it won’t happen again now or into the weeks to come. They have now lost their last 5 straight, have leaked 30 plus points in 4 of their last 5 losses and are on the road.
The Titans are never rolled gold good things and have a poor record as favs, and off 5 losses the Eagles at some stage here are likely to offer some desperation, but on the back of the market going up much much shorter than I marked this game I want to also be with the positive mind set and attacking approach of the Titans off a long turn around and returning home off 3 road games, and oppose a side who have key outs and mentally are clearly very fragile.
Bet 4 units Titans -4.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet BB
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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 15
Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting
Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.
Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.
MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.
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