NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 14

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 14

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 14 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-6.5 Broncos vs Raiders

+7.5 Tigers vs Rabbits

+10.5 Knights vs Warriors

+3.5 Eels vs Titans

+10.5 Roosters vs Storm

+5.5 Eagles vs Panthers

+9.5 Dragons vs Bulldogs

+0.5 Sharks vs Cowboys


NRL Round 14 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Raiders +11.5 $1.90 TabSportsbet

Bet 3 units Panthers -1.5 $1.87 Sportsbet BB

Bet 2 units Storm -4.0 $1.90 Luxbet

Round 15

Bet 4 units Titans -4.5 $1.90 Tabsportsbet BB

Titans return home and will have 9 day freshen up into this which are circumstances in which they preform best, also off a loss and ordinary offering they will be keen to atone. Happy to keep opposing the Eagles given their current difficulties, long list of key outs, will now lose Walker, Myles and there has to be some doubt over Tom Trbojevic their best player with him currently playing with injury, and they will travel for distant road game here for which they have lost their last 3. I’m sure this line will start much longer by game time.

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Rabbits, Warriors, Titans, Storm, Panthers, Bulldogs, Cowboys


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Broncos vs Raiders

-6.5 Broncos

Stats

Round 14 kicks off with the out of form Broncos hosting the inform Raiders. Both sides come into this match with opposing form lines, the Raiders having won 3 straight for the 1st time in more than 12 months, while the Broncos are coming off 3 consecutive losses for the 1st time since 2013. The Raiders have struggled for wins at Suncorp Stadium though, recording a solitary win over the last 11 years, with Brisbane winning 7 of the previous 8 clashes at their home ground. The Raiders have also won only 2 of 6 games on the road this season. Canberra is 8-4 ATS, with a 3-3 covering record on the road. They are 9-4 Over in TMP’s, with 6 of their last 8 decided that way, while only 2 of the last 10 clashes with the Broncos have finished higher than 40 points. The Raiders have moved into 6 th spot on the ladder with the 3rd best attack, while they are 9th in defence, giving them the 5 th best differential. Brisbane comes into this match off their biggest loss of the season and just their 3rd 13+ loss from their past 40 matches. They have a much needed Bye after this match and their pre Bye record is only fair, with 8 wins from 14 matches since 2009. They have won 5 of the last 7 clashes with the Raiders and will be hoping that the home ground will provide some advantage with 20 wins from their last 24 games at home. They are 7-6 ATS with a 4-2 covering record at home. Despite suffering 4 losses from their last 5 matches, Brisbane are still ranked 2nd in attack but have slipped to 5th in defence.

Preview

Clearly having lost 4 of their last 5 the Broncos are treading water at present, they have looked tired and striggling with their workload and while returning home come off a distant away leg (NZ), short turnaround and have 6 players playing their 3rd game in 8 days. On top of looking leg weary as I have noted previously they have a significant problem at #7 with Hunt being well out of form since round 1, his kicking game poor, general play direction and enthusiasm equally poor and making some critical defensive misses – clearly a player well down on confidence.

The Raiders long term record in Brisbane is poor losing 7 of their last 8, but they also have not played here for a number of years. Their road record is also ordinary at just 2 from 6, but right now they have won their last 3 and are playing with come confidence and belief which will take you a long way into a game. They have a big middle and depth, and as we have seen if they can get rolling they can hurt you and build momentum. They also have some lazy patches in their game where they just clock off and fall away and can quickly leak two tries, but they are on the improve and as despised underdogs with no expectation on them they have nothing to lose here but give it a whirl.

Yes the Broncos are at home, and yes we all expect that they should improve, but I have also given them that benefit across the last two weeks. I just worry where fatigue is for them right now, and this assignment doesn’t get any easier up against a big physical team playing with some confidence. While I think the Broncos might get home, I can’t get this any wider that 6.5, and some of that margin is based on home and past advantage and right now I’m just not sure if that is really all there. The market 11.5 should be a significant advantage.

Bet 2 unit Raiders +11.5 $1.90 TabSportsbet


Tigers vs Rabbits

+7.5 Tigers

Stats

For the 2 nd time in 5 weeks the Tigers and Rabbitohs will go head to head at ANZ Stadium. The Tigers caused an upset that night to break a 6 game losing streak and they have gone on to win 3 of 5 since then. The Tigers have lost 5 of their last 6 at ANZ Stadium, with their only win coming in the previous meeting with the Rabbits. They are 5 & 8 ATS with an 11-8 covering record as a home underdog since 2014, while they have covered only 50% of their matches at ANZ Stadium since 2014, producing a 9-9 result. They have conceded the 1st try of the 2 nd half in all 13 matches this season and only twice have they outscored their opponent in the 2nd half. In TMP’s they are 7-6 Over and 6-4 Over in night matches at ANZ Stadium since 2014, while only 1 of the previous 7 clashes with the Rabbitohs have totaled less than 40. A Tigers try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 3 clashes with the Rabbitohs and in the last 2 meetings the 1st try scorer of the match has been the Tigers leading try scorer in James Tedesco (10) who has scored 6 tries from his last 6 matches against the Bunnies. A win for the Tigers will give them 2 wins in a season over the Rabbits for the 1st time since 2008. The Rabbits are on a short turn around after going down in the West to the Titans in a Golden Point thriller. They have lost 5 of 7 games in the week following their trip to Perth and they have also lost their last 4 matches on a 5 day preparation. After spending the 1st 7 weeks inside the Top 8, the Rabbitohs have been positioned in the bottom half of the ladder for the last 6 weeks. They are 5 and 7 at the half way mark, with a 3-3 record as an away side, while they are ranked 6th in attack and 11th in defence. The Rabbits are 5-7 ATS with a 13-11 record when giving up a start on the road since 2014. They have won 10 of 16 at ANZ Stadium since last season, covering a line in only 6 of those, while they are split evenly in TMP’s at the ground during that time. They are 8- 4 Over season to date, with 5 of their last 6 topping 42 points. A winning margin of 13+ has been the result in 6 of the previous 8 clashes between these sides.

Preview

Two teams on short back ups, Rabbits on return trip from Perth and form lines we could shoot multiple holes through.

I just can’t trust the Tigers, clearly all the internal shit going on there is a distraction and they just have no mental resolve week in week out. Last week they played the team sitting 15th who had only won twice, and had key outs, yet you would have sworn this scenario was in reverse so meek was the offering from the Tigers. When last under pressure off a losing run they stood up with am impressive win against the Rabbits but I have just as much confidence now as I did then of that happening here. Unlike many teams where we can watch and review their actual form with this mob we are actually guessing what’s going on in their head…

The Rabbits were better last week but still playing like a mid table team with way too many errors in their game, and still leaking points. Some of the tweaks they have made across their backline have been positive but long gone is their ability of recent past years to defensively shut down teams.

Tipping Rabbits, not a game to play with, if there was any angle it would be total points over as both sides consistently leak points.


Knights vs Warriors

+10.5 Knights

Stats

The Knights take on the Warriors at Hunter Stadium to kick off Super Saturday. The Warriors have a very good record over the Knights, winning 12 of the previous 16 clashes and will be looking for back to back wins for only the 2nd time this season. They will need to address a poor record on the road as they have lost 4 of 6 as the away side this season and 8 of their last 10 long term. They are 5-7 ATS with a 2-4 record on the road, while they are a poor 11-19 when covering on the road since 2014. Only on 3 occasions this season have Warriors matches finished Under, giving them a 9-3 Over result and only 1 of the previous 7 clashes with the Knights have totaled less than 40. The Warriors have moved from 14th to 12th on the ladder, they are ranked 8th in attack, but they are ranked a lowly 14th in defence. The Knights have now lost 7 in a row and another loss this week will make it 8 straight for only the 2nd time in their history. They have been anchored in 16th spot for the last 5 weeks and haven’t been positioned higher than 14th all season. They are 5 & 8 ATS, with a 3-2 record at home, while they have covered in 13 of their last 15 as a home underdog. Like the Warriors, the Knights also favour the Overs, producing a 7-6 result, while they are 12-6 Over in day games at home since 2014. The Knights have conceded the 1st try of the match in 11 of their 13 matches and they have conceded the last try in 8 of their last 9. A winning margin of 1-12 points has been the result in 8 of the last 11 meetings. Looks like there could be plenty of points on offer but the set point of 48 looks about right

Preview

Another car crash of a game. Knights have lost 7 straight, are 1 from 13, return home and are conceding 34 points a week… Oh, and the Warriors off numerous “truth sessions” pulled their best performance for 12 months out of their backside last week to thump the Broncos, yet are poor distant travelers and we never know when they are likely to put back to back offerings together.

If there is any substance to the Warriors form then they win, but leave me out of a 10 to 12 point line either way. Looks plenty of points, but high 40’s as a total is also significant risk.


Eels vs Titans

+3.5 Eels

Stats

For the 3rd straight year, the Eels will take a home game to TIO Stadium in Darwin. It’s proven a fruitful exercise to this point with the Eels winning their 2 previous matches played in the NT. They have had the week off but that hasn’t been a benefit in recent seasons as they have lost 10 of their last 11 when coming off the Bye. They are also facing an opponent where wins in recent clashes have been hard to come by with the Titans winning 5 of the last 6 meetings, while the Titans have found some form and are currently on a 3 game winning streak. After winning 5 of their 1st 7, the Eels have now lost 3 of their last 5. They are split 6-6 ATS, with a 3-4 record as the home team. They are 9-3 Under Over and only 1 of their 12 matches has finished higher than 42 points. Only once in their last 6 matches have they led at half time and they have also conceded the 1st try of the match in 5 of their last 6. 5 of their last 6 matches have been decided by a margin of 1-12 points and this has also been the margin on 4 of the previous 6 meetings with the Titans. The Eels have conceded just 1 try through their middle 3 rd this season, compared to 13 tries at the same time in 2015, while no side has scored more tries through the middle than the Titans with 17. The Titans will have clocked up plenty of frequent flyer miles by the time they land in Darwin after returning from Perth last weekend. It’s their 3rd game in a month where they have been on the road, after playing Penrith prior to having their 1st Bye. A win over the Eels will make it 4 straight victories for the Titans for only the 2nd time in 6 seasons. They are 3 and 3 as the away side and a league best 5 and 1 ATS on the road. Over the last 3 seasons they have an 18-10 ATS record when travelling interstate, while their current ATS record is 9-3. The Titans are 6-3 Over in TMP’s with 5 of those Overs results coming from 6 away games. A Titans try has been the 1 st scoring play in 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Eels, while Ryan James and Zeb Taia are the leading try scorers for the Titans with 5 each. 8 of the Titans last 10 matches have been decided by single figures.

Preview

Played in Darwin.

Another where we are guessing what sort of mental state the Eels are in. I had expected much more hunger through recent weeks, they copped some key in game injuries last game but were still poor when nearly rolled by the Knights. I think now they are starting to look more and more like a team who have mentally put the white flag up for the season. They are now without Foran and Paulo long term, have issues with Norman, on watch now for me.

Love the Titans and what they are doing. They just turn up where ever it is and have a go, only once rolling over this year. What is new here for them tho is expectation and starting favs (deservedly). I think they win, and might well do so by 10 or more points, but betting into a game in Darwin off a road trip out of Perth is not something I want to do.


Roosters vs Storm

+10.5 Roosters

Stats

The Roosters play host to the Melbourne Storm at Allianz Stadium to close out Super Saturday in 1 of only 2 matches where both sides recorded victories in Round 13. The Storm holds a slight advantage head to head over the Roosters with 16 wins to 14, while things have been split evenly since 2010 with both sides recording 5 wins a piece. Melbourne comes into this match off the back of 6 consecutive victories to sit in 2nd spot on the ladder. They have spent 9 weeks in the Top 4 and are 1 of only 4 sides that haven’t been out of the Top 8. They are still fine tuning their attack to currently rank 7th, but it’s their defensive efforts that has then humming along, conceding an average of 11.3 points a game, which seems them sitting on the top of the defensive standings. The Storm is 7-5 ATS, which includes covering in their last 5, while they have covered in 9 of their last 12 when giving up 6 points or less with 6 of those 9 coming on the road. They are now the number 1 ranked side in TMP’s for Unders results, with a 9-3 record, including their 5 previous away games where none of those have finished above 38. A Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in all 5 of their games on the road and in their last 6 matches the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 8th minute. Suliasa Vunivalu is Melbourne’s top try scorer with 8 tries from 6 appearances, while Cooper Cronk ranks 2nd with 7. Despite registering their 3rd win of the season last week, the Roosters remain in 15th spot for the 5th straight week. They are ranked 12th in attack and 13th in defence with the 11th ranked differential. They come into this match having lost all 4 of their previous matches against a Top 8 opponent by an average of almost 30 points a game and in their 9 losses this season they have conceded 20 points or more in all of them. They are 4-8 ATS, with 3 of their 4 covers coming in matches played at Allianz Stadium. In TMP’s they are 8-4 in favour of the Overs, while the last 4 clashes with the Storm have totaled 38 or less. In top try scorer rankings, Latrell Mitchell leads the way for the Roosters with 8, while Blake Ferguson comes in 2nd with 7.

Preview

Roosters now lose Napa, Mitchell, have doubts over Lui and Pearce and are without Cordner. They come through a weak game / win against a listless Tigers offering into a top of table side.

Storm have won 6 straight and defensively have been outstanding – once again. I shall write some notes on this over the coming weeks, but Bellamy is the best defensive coach on teh modern era, and since Warren Ryan. Year after year he recycles his list yet more often than not produces a top 4 team, but importantly year after year they are in the top few defensively, always conceding somewhere around 10 to 12 points on average (and right now this is 11.3). Across their last 5 games in D it reads 6, 6, 14, 0 and 0 – speaks for itself.

Storm are also one of the most professional road teams, this is 1st spot vs 15th, into Origin and about to again be without their key stars this looks a game they should be all over.

Bet 2 units Storm -4.0 $1.90 Luxbet


Eagles vs Panthers

+5.5 Eagles

Stats

The Panthers travel to Brookvale Oval to take on the Sea Eagles in the only Sunday match of the Round. The Panthers have won 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Sea Eagles, including 2 of the last 5 meetings played at Brookvale Oval. They are on the road for the 2nd consecutive week while the Sea Eagles are back at Brookvale for the 1st time in 5 weeks. The Panthers are 11th on the ladder and also rank 11th in attack, while they are ranked 8th in defence. They are coming off back to back losses for the 1st time since Round 2 as well as their biggest loss of the season in an 18 point loss to Melbourne. Penrith are 7-5 ATS and have covered the line in their last 5 meetings with the Sea Eagles. They are 7-5 Under in TMP’s with a 5-1 Under record on the road, while 8 of the last 11 clashes with Manly have totaled 38 points or less. In 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Sea Eagles the winning margin has been by 1-12 and this has also been the margin result in 11 of the Panthers 12 matches this season. Manly come into this match off the back of 4 consecutive losses and continue to lose key players through injury and will be without at least half a dozen regulars this week. They have lost 4 from 5 at what was formally known as Fortress Brookvale to be languishing in 13th spot. They are ranked a lowly 14th in attack, while they are 12th in defence. They are 4-8 ATS and have covered in only 1 of their 6 home games. In TMP’s they are 7-5 Under, with a 4-1 Under record at Brookvale Oval. Only twice this season have they led at half time and only the Knights have scored fewer 1st half points than the Sea Eagles. A Sea Eagles try has been the 1st scoring play in 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Panthers played at Brookvale Oval.

Preview

Eagles look to have some major injury issues and key outs on the back of their losing run. Cherry-Evans, Lyon, Matai, Lawrence all now confirmed outs while there are likely doubts over some others and the Eagles are now fielding a significantly weakened list. They return home, but interestingly they have now lost 4 of their last 5 here at what had traditionally been a stronghold home advantage.

Panthers come off two losses but through form games that read well vs Titans (who keep winning) and Storm (top of table). Griffin has made some key changes through recent weeks as he looks to shake up attitude and performance and get this team back winning. Their recent record at Brookvale is ok, they have some ball play and youthful talent, and certainly right now a stronger list with more talent and depth than on paper their opponents.

We are on here at the right position, my workings are that the Panthers have too stronger a list across the 80 minutes and win.

Bet 3 units Panthers -1.5 $1.87 Sportsbet BB


Dragons vs Bulldogs

+9.5 Dragons

Stats

The Dragons play host to the Bulldogs at ANZ Stadium in a rematch of last year’s Qualifying Final. The Bulldogs were Golden Point winners on that occasion which handed the Dragons their 7th loss from the last 8 clashes with the Bulldogs. The Dragons have had the week off but they have only won 3 of their last 8 matches when coming off the Bye, while they have also lost 6 of their last 8 matches played at ANZ Stadium. After 12 matches the Dragons have won 6 and lost 6 to sit just outside the 8 in 9th spot. They have the worst attacking record in the competition, while they are ranked 7th in defence. The Dragons remain as the only side yet to win a 2nd half this season and they half failed to score a 2nd half try in more than half of their matches, giving them a 2nd half average of less than 4 points. The Dragons have been great front runners, winning 6 from 6 with a half time lead, but they have lost 6 from 6 when trailing at the break. They are split evenly ATS with a 6-6 result, while they have also been a fifty-fifty proposition when covering at ANZ Stadium, producing a 5-5 result since 2014. Their TMP results are 10-2 in favour of the Under, while 7 of the last 9 clashes with the Bulldogs at ANZ Stadium have also finished Under. After a win loss sequence that stretched 8 weeks, the Dogs recorded 2 consecutive wins before dropping their last 2 matches. They have led at half time in their past 8 games but have been run down in 4 of them and in their last 2 they have conceded a combined 2nd half total of 32 points while scoring just 6. The Dogs have dropped to 7 th which is their lowest position on the ladder season to date, while they are ranked 5th in attack and 6th in defence. They have won 10 of their last 14 matches at ANZ Stadium but have covered a line in only 8 of those. They are 5-8 ATS with a 9-11 covering record from their last 20 matches as a favourite. In TMP’s they are 7-6 Under and are 6-1 Under off back to back losses since 2014. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 7 of the previous 8 meetings with the Dragons who have conceded 1st points in 11 of their last 15 at ANZ Stadium. The side that has scored the 1st try of the match has gone on to win 14 of the last 15 clashes and that’s also been the same result for the half time leader.

Preview

Not a game I want to have an interest in, but if pushed I’d be with the Bulldogs to cover.

Bulldogs have been run down at their last few late in each game but I think that form has much more strength behind it than their opponents. They still have issues with strong leadership and game direction at #7 and #6, but they have been prepared to shift the ball and attack far more through the last 4 weeks and do have points in them. Whereas the Dragons struggle with their attack, av just 11 points a game and can be shut down with quality defence, which against lower table sides the Bulldogs have an advantage.

Bulldogs to win, if you are betting I have them covering the line, but I shall be staying out.


Sharks vs Cowboys

+0.5 Sharks

Stats

It’s 1st versus 3rd when the Sharks host the Cowboys to close out Round 14 in what is clearly the match of the Round. The Sharks hold the overall advantage both head to head and at the ground, although the Cowboys have reduced the deficit in recent seasons, winning 9 of the previous 13 clashes, which includes 4 of the last 5 encounters at Shark Park. The Sharks have now won 9 in a row and if they can defeat the Cowboys it will be only the 2nd time in 28 years that they have recorded 10 consecutive victories. They sit on top of the ladder for the 3rd week in a row with the 4th best attack, while they are ranked equal 3rd in defence with the Cowboys, giving them the 3rd best differential. They remain undefeated at home in 2016, winning 6 from 6 and have won 12 of their last 15 dating back to Round 6 in 2015. 5 of their last 6 wins at home have been by 8 points or less, while single figures have decided 4 of the last 7 clashes with the Cowboys. They are 8-4 ATS with a 9-9 covering record as a home side since last year, while they have covered a line in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Cowboys. Cronulla are split evenly in TMP’s producing a 6-6 result, while they are 14-5 Under when playing at home under lights since 2014. It’s last to first for the Cowboys after accounting for the Knights last week and facing the top of the table Sharks this week. They have won 9 of 13 to hold down 3rd spot and at the half way mark they have only been positioned out of the Top 4 on 3 occasions. As mentioned they are ranked equal 3rd in defence, while they sit at the top of both rankings in attack and differential. No side has scored more 2nd half points than the Cowboys and they still remain as the only side yet to be outscored in the 2nd half. They are 8-5 ATS with a 3-3 covering record on the road. The Cowboys are in slight favour of the Overs in TMP’s, with a 7-6 result, while the previous 13 clashes with the Sharks at Shark Park have totaled 40 points or more. The Cowboys have scored the 1st points of the match in 8 of the last 10 encounters with the Sharks. In FTS calculations consider Valentine Holmes who has bagged 11 tries, while Feki and Barba have both scored 8 each with Barba scoring the 1st try of the match on 3 occasions. For the Cowboys Kyle Feldt leads the way with 9, while Gavin Cooper has crossed 8 times and with 4 of those he has been the 1st try scorer of the match. These 2 teams have used fewer players than any other sides in the competition to this point, with the Sharks using 19, while the Cowboys have used 22.

Preview

Excellent clash and I’m happy to just watch, enjoy and learn.

Sharks have won their last 9 and 6 from 6 at home. They have good balance across their list, halves in form, skill and class finishing on the edges. Some what flat last week but showed some quality to get themselves out and winning late. I have no knock for them right now.

Cowboys are quality, have won 4 of their last 5 at this ground and good recent record over Sharks including touching them up when it mattered in a semi final late last yr. I just like the way the Cows aim up for these big games this year, and make a habit of lifting and doing what ever is required to more often than not win.

Even money game for mine, looks very little between them, slight lean to Cowboys but a game that should teach us all more.



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 14

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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