NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 13

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 13

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 13 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-6.5 Raiders vs Eagles

+5.5 Warriors vs Broncos

-18.5 Cowboys vs Knights

-2.5 Storm vs Panthers

-5.5 Roosters vs Tigers

-3.5 Rabbits vs Titans

+2.5 Bulldogs vs Sharks


NRL Round 13 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Raiders -5.5 $1.91 Sportsbet

Bet 1 units Cowboys-Knights Under 44.0 $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Storm-Panthers Under 38.5 $1.90 Sportsbet  BB

Bet 1 unit Tigers +7.5 $1.91 Sportsbet

Bet 1 units Bulldogs-Sharks Under 36.5 $1.91 Pinnacle

Round 14

Bet 3 units Panthers -1.5 $1.87 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Storm -4.0 $1.90 Luxbet / Crownbet

Eagles look to have some major injury issues and key outs on the back of their losing run. Matai has been out for some weeks with a neck injury that may now require surgery, now out of last last Friday night they have lost Lawrence up front (likely for season), Cherry-Evans and Lyon likely for a number of weeks and have some doubt over Buhrer and Brown. Panthers come off two losses but through form games that read well vs Titans (who keep winning) and Storm (top of table). I expect this line will move much further through the coming days.

Roosters now lose Napa, Mitchell, have doubts over Lui and are without Cordner. Storm have won 6 straight, defensively very tight, this is 1st vs 15th and although Storm on the road -4 is very low.

Notes – One of the more difficult weeks of the season, days after Origin and final team lists still to be confirmed, plus fatigue across many key players let alone a bloody difficult week of match ups to boot. Sydney is also forecast for plenty of rain, while we have a game in Perth (Rabbits vs Titans). Also not a week for Best Bets.

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Raiders, Broncos, Cowboys, Storm, Tigers, Titans, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Raiders vs Eagles

-6.5 Raiders

Stats

Sea Eagles travel to the Nation’s Capital to take on the Raiders in Friday Night Football to kick off Round 13. Manly holds a distinct advantage over the Raiders, winning 13 of the last 16 clashes and it’s also been 12 years since the Raiders last defeated the Sea Eagles at GIO Stadium. The Sea Eagles have had the week off but their record post Bye is a poor one, having lost 5 of their last 7, while the Raiders will be looking for 3 straight wins for the 1st time in more than 12 months. Manly have won 3 of their last 4 on the road but have lost 7 of their last 8 games of FNF as the away side and come into this match off of 3 straight losses. They are 4-7 ATS and have a 13-16 covering record on the road since 2014. In TMP’s they are 7-4 Under, while FNF is also in favour of the Under producing a 9-3 result season to date. A Manly try has been the 1st scoring play in 6 of the previous 7 clashes with the Raiders who have conceded the 1st try in 5 of their last 7. FNF in Canberra is a rarity for the Raiders and this week will be just the 4th time in 5 seasons that they have featured in such a game. Their come from behind victory against the Dogs gave them back to back wins for the 1 st time since Round 2 as well as some much needed momentum. They are 4 and 2 at home with a 3-1 home record against sides currently out of the 8. In their last 5 games, the Raiders have scored a combined total of 100 points in their 2nd halves, while conceding just 35. They are 7-4 ATS and have covered in the previous 2 clashes with the Sea Eagles. The Raiders continue to be an Overs side producing an 8-4 Overs result after 12 Rounds, while they are 5-1 Over at home and the last 4 clashes with Manly have all finished Over with all 4 totaling 45 points or more at an average of 56.

Preview

Eagles travel to Canberra for a cold possibly dam Friday night away game and are likely to be without Matai, Myles and have Stewart as a week to week proposition with his hamstring issues. They come off a bye week and 3 straight losses conceding 20 to 30 points at each of these last 3 games.

Raiders have won two straight off the back of their come from behind late win last weekend over the Bulldogs at home, they have a short turn around but stay based in Canberra and have a full list to pick from with more the matter of who is left out than included. The competition for places, especially in their forward line up has to be a nice positive and motivation for them right now.

The key to this game is the middle third (and how this is played) where the Raiders have a distinct advantage. They have size and muscle and a 9 man forward offering that can just keep pounding you play after play, while they have also developed two quality powerful edge running backs in Leilua and Rapana to smash you on the Raiders right edge – interestingly enough here matching up against the Eagles weaker defensive edge should Matai not play. The Eagles have consistently shown a weakness through their middle, they don’t have the right forwards or enough of them to aim up here against the bigger sides and consistently end up on the back foot.

The Raiders game starts at and off #9, if they get themselves moving and rolling forward they can quickly build momentum, and then hurt you. It took them a long time to get themselves going last week, and they can be prone to inconsistency in attitude, but I think the come from behind effort last Sunday and more so the way they did it on the back of their big men up front will give them some further confidence and belief here. They have significant advantage with an up tempo big rolling forward pack here, if they use this properly then I expect they win and cover.

Bet 1 unit Raiders -5.5 $1.91 Sportsbet


Warriors vs Broncos

+5.5 Warriors

Stats

The Warriors host the Broncos kick off Super Saturday from Mt Smart Stadium. The Broncos have won the previous 3 clashes with the Warriors, including their last start at Mt Smart Stadium but that was their only win from the last 4 visits to the ground. They have now lost 3 of their last 4 and another loss this week will make it 3 straight losses for the 1st time since the return of Wayne Bennett. They are 7-5 ATS with a 3-3 covering record on the road, while they have covered the line in the last 3 meetings with the Warriors. They are 8-4 Under in TMP’s and 4 of the last 5 meetings with the Warriors have also finished Under. Brisbane has slipped to 3rd on the ladder but are ranked 1st in attack, while they sit 2nd in defence. 3 of their 4 losses this season have been by a single point, the other loss was by 2 points. The Warriors have had the week off which has been beneficial in recent seasons as they have won their last 7 when coming off a Bye. Like the Broncos, the Warriors have also lost 3 of their last 4 and are looking down the barrel at 3 straight defeats for the 2nd time this season. They have won only 2 of their past 9 games at home and they have also lost their last 5 when starting as a home underdog. They have trailed at half time on 7 occasions this season and only once have they been able to overcome a half time deficit. The Warriors sit in 14th spot with the 3rd worst defence, while they are ranked 11th in attack. They are 4-7 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 4 at home when getting a start. In TMP’s they are 8-3 Over, with 3 of their last 4 at home totaling 50 or more. In 6 of the last 8 clashes the winning margin has been by 1-12 points, which includes the last 4 clashes at Mt Smart Stadium, while the team to score the 1st points has gone on to win 9 of the previous 11 meetings.

Preview

Both sides have lost 3 of their last 4 into this, while the Broncos are likely to rest Gillett, Oates and possibly Parker. The Warriors again reverted to rubbish two weeks ago and have since had supposed internal meetings, honesty sessions and finger pointing to try and right what is already a terrible low season.

The game is guess work. Warriors are at home but right now we have no idea what application they turn up with, or for how long. Broncos last 3 halves have been flat and they have likely key outs, possible fatigue and are away. Broncos come off 2 losses, I’d sooner want to side with them to be applying themselves to want to win here but its a game I want to stay clear of.


Cowboys vs Knights

-18.5 Cowboys

Stats

It’s the reigning Premiers against the wooden spoon favourites in what shapes as a 1 sided affair for game 2 of Super Saturday. The Cowboys have a healthy recent head to head record over the Knights, recording 6 wins from the last 9 meetings and their record at home is even stronger, having won 5 of the last 7 meetings with the Knights played at 1300SMILES Stadium. The Cowboys have won 27 of their past 32 matches at home and are undefeated at home this season, winning 6 from 6. They are 7-5 ATS, with a 4-2 covering record at home, while they have covered in 8 of 11 at home when giving up a double digit advantage. Home teams giving up a double digit start have a 40-34 covering record since 2014. They are split evenly in TMP’s, while 9 of their last 12 at home have finished Over. The Cowboys have scored the opening try of the match in 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Knights and in all 6 matches at home in 2016. The Knights have lost 15 of their last 17 matches on the road and are yet to win an away game this season, losing 7 from 7. They are on a short turn around and have lost their last 4 off a 5 day preparation. They have conceded an average of 32 points a game and only once this season have they scored more than 18 points. Newcastle is 5-7 ATS and has covered a line in only 3 of their last 10 on the road when given a double digit start. The Knights are also split evenly in TMP’s, while 4 of their last 5 have totaled 38 points or less. Only once this season has a Knights try been the 1st scoring play and they have conceded the last try in their last 8.

Preview

The key unknown until an hour before game time is if Thurston, Morgan, O’Neill, Scott and Tamou play. I would expect after head knocks Morgan won’t and O’Neill would be doubtful, Thurston is clearly carrying a hip injury and has to be some doubt (but he is a tough bugger who always likes to back up) while it would be a matter of how the two big fellers pull up. Given all of this we are then guessing.

The Knights were very plucky last Monday night in a narrow home loss but have been poor when traveling and this is a long distant away game, and they have a young team still gaining experience with all of this. They also have a further change at #6.

I am hearing mid Saturday that Cows now likely to have outs, plus some rain may well play an influence, happy to have a small interest on the total under a high mark.

Bet 1 units Cowboys-Knights Under 44.0 $1.90 Sportsbet


Storm vs Panthers

-2.5 Storm

Stats

The final match of Super Saturday sees the Melbourne Storm play host to the Panthers of Penrith. History shows that the Melbourne Storm has won 15 of the previous 16 clashes with the Panthers who have gone 11 years without recording a victory over the Storm in Melbourne. Both sides are coming off the Bye and both sides have produced poor results in recent times after the week off, the Storm has lost 6 of their last 7, while the Panthers have lost 7 of their last 9 post Bye. The Storm has also struggled for wins in matches straight after an Origin game, losing 6 of their last 7. The Panthers are still looking for their 1st win at AAMI Park and are 1 of 4 sides that have never won a game at the ground. Penrith are in 9th place on the ladder, with 5 wins and 6 losses, they are ranked 10th in attack and 7th in defence. They are 7-4 ATS with a 4-1 covering record on the road. The Panthers are 6-5 Under in TMP’s, with a 4-1 Under record as an away side. In 9 of the previous 12 clashes with the Storm the TMP’s have also finished Under. The Storm has now recorded 5 consecutive wins to comfortably sit in 2nd place. They are ranked 6th in attack and currently have the best defensive record in the comp. They are yet to be beaten by a side sitting lower than 5th position and have suffered just 1 loss at home this season. They are 6-5 ATS and have covered in the previous 3 clashes with the Panthers. Like the Panthers, the Storm also favour the Unders in TMP’s, producing a 9-2 result, with only 1 of their past 9 games finishing higher than 38 points. A Melbourne try has been the 1st scoring play in 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Panthers.

Preview

Smith is expected to play for Storm and some suggestions that Cronk may also do the same. Panthers are likely to have both Moylan and Mansour playing and have Cartwright back.

Looks a good game, the Storm well favoured at home and are 9 of 11 and sit top of table. They have won their last 5 but the best of this has been winning the last 3 on the road and notably wins over Cowboys and Eels conceding just 3 tries. Typical of Bellamy he has made defence the mainstay of their game and they are conceding just 11 points a game, they love an arm wrestle and have composure going set for set with any team in close games led by the experience of Smith.

The Panthers are 5 from 11 and only 2 from 5 when on the road, and they are into a tough away venue here. They offer very much a roller coaster ride through most games winning or losing by the barest of margins and only once have they closed out a game with a comfortable win (Warriors). This will be the toughest test they have faced for some time up against a quality defending top of the table side who will be well prepared (defensively) for their mid field ball play and off load game.

With rain forecast (90%) and likely wet and dam conditions this looks very much like a tough close physical arm wrestle. Both sides come off a bye and should be well prepared, with Smith and possibly Cronk likely to play I can’t go past the Storm at home, but a damp night game with a short line certainly suits a total under position with it set at 38.5.

Bet 2 units Storm-Panthers Under 38.5 $1.90 Sportsbet


Roosters vs Tigers

-5.5 Roosters

Stats

The 15th placed Roosters play host to the 13th placed Tigers in what shapes as an uninspiring match up with 2 sides who desperately need the 2 points. The Roosters have won 11 of the last 12 clashes with the Tigers and it’s now 5 years since the Tigers last beat the Roosters, with the Tri-Colours winning the last 7 encounters and all 7 wins have been comprehensive as they have all been by a margin of 13+ with an average margin of 30. The Roosters had lost 4 of 5 heading into their Bye, but they have won 5 of their last 6 when coming off a Bye week. They have a poor ATS record, covering in just 3 of 11, but have covered the line in the previous 6 clashes with the Tigers. They favour the Overs in TMP’s, producing a 7-4 result, while 6 of the previous 7 clashes with the Tigers have totaled 40 or more, with an average of 53. The Roosters have scored both the 1st try of the match and of the 2nd half in the last 6 meetings with the Tigers. Look to Daniel Tupou as FTS as he has scored 11 tries from last 7 games against the Tigers and has been the 1st try scorer of the match in 3 of the last 4 clashes. The Tigers come into this match after causing the biggest upset of the season when they defeated the Broncos to give them back to back wins for the 1st time since Round 2. They have now won 3 of their last 4 but they have lost 9 of their last 10 at Allianz Stadium. They are 5-7 ATS and since 2014 they are 10-16 when starting as a road dog. They are split evenly in TMP’s, with their last 3 going Under, while 6 of their last 8 at Allianz Stadium have also finished Under. The Tigers have trailed the Roosters at half time in the previous 9 clashes, scoring an average of just 2 1st half points.

Preview

Late key changes here with Cordner and Pearce now confirmed outs for Roosters and Farah to be rested by Tigers. Game likely to be played in / on wet conditions.

Tigers named possibly their strongest list this season with Tedesco and Woods back. They have now won their last two, questionable depth in that with ordinary offering when 8 point home winners over the Knights and then 1 point winners over a depleted and flat Broncos offering. But they are much better in the middle with Elijah Taylor in quality form and playing for his future, Woods back up front and the classy skill of Tedesco at the back. Their record when out of Sydney away is shocking so they should have taken some positive confidence out of last Fridays win in Brisbane, but consistency of attitude and application week in week out is not a strength.

I had the Tigers rated with some advantage here prior to their late outs, and two key ones they are. Cordner was the best NSW player last Wednesday and through recent weeks has been one of the few forwards in this team in any sort of quality form. Pearce clearly an experienced playmaker. The Roosters have won just 2 of 11 and we are now way past it being just a bad start to the season and injury issues, clearly in the background here there are attitude, ego and unity issues. They handed the Dragons the Anzac Day game on a platter of errors, rolled through a poor Knights away offering and have then again lost their last two with meek offerings. My mail through recent days is that a number of the players were out till 4am at the casino on the Gold Coast the morning of their upset loss to the Titans, which just reeks of ego and shit attitude.

Tigers get their chance here, especially now with the key team changes. The market position available till yesterday should be an advantage.

Bet 1 unit Tigers +7.5 $1.91 Sportsbet


Rabbits vs Titans

-3.5 Rabbits

Stats

A home game for the Rabbitohs that will be played at NIB Stadium in Perth. It’s the 8th consecutive year that the Bunnies have taken a home game to the West and their record at the ground is currently 5 wins and 2 losses. This is another game featuring 2 sides off a freshen up and the week off has had very different effects on these 2 sides, with the Rabbitohs winning 9 of their last 11 and the Titans losing 10 of their last 12 when coming off the Bye. The Rabbits have won 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Titans and will be looking to record 3 straight wins for the 1st time this season after stringing back to back wins together as they headed into their week off. They are 5- 6 ATS and have covered in only 8 of their last 18 when favoured by more than 4. Their TMP record is 7-4 in favour of the Overs and they are 8-5 Over in day games since 2014. A Rabbitohs try has been the 1st scoring play in 7 of the last 9 meetings with the Titans as well as in 6 of their last 7 matches played at NIB Stadium, while no side has conceded the 1st try more than the Titans this season (9 of 11). The Titans come into this match in a similar position to the Rabbits, winning their last 2 and looking for 3 consecutive victories for the 1st time this season. They have been the most successful side ATS to this point, covering in 8 of 11, including their last 4 games on the road. They slightly favour the Overs in TMP’s, with a 6-5 Over Under result and they are 4-1 Over on the road with all 5 matches totaling 41 points or more. In the 9 games where the Titans have conceded the 1st try this season, the try has been scored by the 8th minute in 8 of them. Only twice this season have the Titans led at half time and they have also led at the break on only 2 occasions from the last 10 meetings with the Rabbitohs.

Preview


Bulldogs vs Sharks

+2.5 Bulldogs

Stats

The Bulldogs host the Sharks at ANZ Stadium to close out Round 13. The Dogs have won 8 of the last 10 clashes with the ladder leaders, including 4 of the previous 5 meetings at ANZ Stadium. The Sharks caused a major upset when they last met the Dogs but they have strangely opened as the outsider for this clash. The Sharks won 8 consecutive matches before their Bye but will the week off halt their momentum? Their record after the week off is a poor one, losing 10 of their last 13, with an average losing margin of more than 20 points. They will also need to overcome a poor record at ANZ Stadium where they have lost 7 of their past 8 matches. The Sharks are 7-4 ATS with a 4-1 covering record on the road. They are 6-5 Under in TMP’s and have had Unders results in all 4 of their night matches in 2016. Cronulla has scored the 1st try of the match in their last 7 straight and 9 of their 11 games season to date. The Bulldogs have proved themselves to be consistently inconsistent after going down to the Raiders last week. They are 7-5 after 12 Rounds and yet they haven’t been out of the Top 8 all season and are still to record back to back losses. They have however, lost 4 of their last 5 against a Top 8 opponent. They have won 8 of their last 10 at ANZ Stadium but have covered in only 3 of their last 7 at the ground. Their ATS numbers are 5-7, while their covering record at ANZ Stadium is 17-18 dating back to 2014. They are 7-5 Under in TMP’s and 4-1 Under against the Top 8. The Dogs have won 7 of their last 9 games of MNF, including 4 of their last 5 at ANZ Stadium, while the Sharks have a diabolical record on the road in the Monday fixture, losing 13 straight, with their last win coming way back in 2008. This game screams for the Under, with the 7 of the last 8 H2H going Under, both sides favouring the Under, MNF producing a 9-3 Under result (13-4 dating back to last year) and a likely wet track, the TMP’s of less than 36.5 looks a likely result.

Preview

The deluge of wet weather into Sydney across the weekend and the face that this ground (Homebush) has seen plenty of traffic across the last week including the soccer game last Saturday night is an additional and helpful factor pointing this game to being a low scoring tight game and likely under result.

The Sharks have won 8 straight but have a poor record off a bye and at the ground. But they are rolling along nicely on the back of a well balanced list, strong in the middle, smart halves and skillful finishing on the edges. Off the week off and their Origin players having plenty of rest since last Wednesday they have no excuse here.

Bulldogs were swamped late last week by the Raiders, and faltered when the forward momentum got going. They get 3 key ins back from Origin but lose Eastwood.

Should be a very good physical match up in the forwards here, and aided with a wet track we should see another arm wrestle and tight contest. The key to low scores in conditions like this is in having two sides who generally defend strongly and these two teams do, and these two teams are in the top 6 at present for defence. Monday night games strongly favour low scoring results as it is the second pick tv game of the round and so more often than not we see top of table match ups, Monday night games have been under 12 of the last 15. H2H 7 of the last 8 contests have been under 38, then add to that the wet conditions.

Favour the Sharks and some of the quality behind what they have been doing through their winning roll. But with another wet track, night game, known slippery ground and a short line conditions certainly suit a total under position.

Bet 1 units Bulldogs-Sharks Under 36.5 $1.91 Pinnacle



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 13

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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