NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 12

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 12

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 12 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-19.5 Broncos vs Tigers

-1.5 Dragons vs Cowboys

-6.5 Raiders vs Bulldogs

+15.5 Knights vs Eels


NRL Round 12 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Broncos -11.5 $1.85 Ubet / -12.0 $1.90 William Hill

Bet 1 unit Raiders – 2.5 Sportsbet $1.90

Bet 4 units Eels -8.5 $1.90 Ubet  BB

Bet 2 units NSW H2H $1.92 Sportsbet

Notes – First week of Origin and a shortened round. I have this very different to the markets and am very surprised of the position available. The Eels are technically still a top 6 side and have come through a strong recent form line, led the Rabbits comfortably before running out of steam when run down late in a strong form game and then last night were close to a very good Storm offering for a long way, another excellent form reference given the quality of the Storms recent run including their win over the Cowboys but a week ago. They will now have a 7 day turn around into a short distance away game against the 16th placed team the Knights. The Eels will have possible injury doubts over Foran and Scott, but even so I still have the likely gap at least 12 to 14 point handicap, plus they have depth, they showed they can play and win tough without Foran only 3 weeks ago and have a big physical advantage here. Defensively these two teams are panels apart, the Eels conceding 14 a week and sound week on week, the Knights currently average conceding 34 a week and come through a very soft form line game last week against another bottom of the table side in the Tigers. I would anticipate that by next Monday this line will be 12 or longer.

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Dragons, Raiders, Eels


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Broncos vs Tigers

-19.5 Broncos

Stats

A depleted Broncos side hosts the Tigers at Suncorp Stadium to kick off an abbreviated Round 12. Brisbane will be without 6 regulars who will represent Queensland in Origin 1, while the Tigers have had 2 players named in the NSW side. The Broncos will be hoping they can reproduce their efforts from last year when they went undefeated through the Origin period. They get a good opportunity to get the ball rolling here, as they have completely dominated the Tigers in recent years, winning 10 of the last 11 clashes and only once in the last 10 years have the Tigers recorded a victory at Suncorp Stadium. The Broncos have now lost 2 of their last 3 but are unbeaten against sides currently out of the Top 8, winning 6 from 6, with an average winning margin of 24 points. Only once this season half they trailed at half time and they have also led at the break in 9 of the last 11 matches against the Tigers. Last week was the 1st time this season that Brisbane had not scored the 1st points of the match and a Broncos try has been the 1st scoring play in 5 of the last 6 meetings with the Tigers. Brisbane is 7-4 ATS and they have covered a line in 75% of their matches at Suncorp Stadium since 2014, producing a 24-8 result. In TMP’s they are 7-4 Under but at home they favour the Over, producing a 19-12 result since 2014. In contrast to the Broncos, the Tigers come into this match after winning 2 of their last 3 to be 4 and 7 after 11 Rounds. They are yet to register a win against a Top 8 side, having lost their 5 previous matches, while their only away win was against the Rabbitohs at ANZ Stadium. The Tigers have one of the worst records in the comp when travelling, winning only 4 of their last 20 matches on the road and they are even worse when playing interstate, having won just 2 of 11 since 2013, with 7 of the 9 losses having a margin result of 13+ and in 9 of the last 10 they have failed to cover the line. They have also lost 5 of their previous 6 matches without their Origin representatives. The Tigers are 4-7 ATS and have a 9-19 covering record as an away side since 2014. In TMP’s they are 6-5 in favour of the Overs and they also favour the Over on the road, producing a 17-11 result since 2014.

Preview

As we know well although depleted through this Origin period (now losing 6 players) the Broncos are well renown for the quality of their second tier depth, and importantly retain 3 key experienced players at #9, 7 and 6 to lead their game. The Tigers are certainly no where as well blessed already struggling with depth, they are without Tedesco and now lose Farah and Woods and have a very poor record when without these key players.

The other key issue here is the Tigers being on the road and interstate – for which they have a shocking record having only won 3 of their last 13 such games since early 2013, and across those same 13 games only covering the line 3 time. We have already opposed them twice this season when same, for two key losses (and line beats) with losses 30-18 by the Titans and 60-6 by the Raiders.

The Tigers come off a soft weak performance last start winning with a short margin through the Knights, the Broncos come off another key form game off their away defeat to the Cowboys. One a game vs the top of the table, the other vs the bottom.

Broncos while somewhat depleted are back at home and Bennett is a master at managing games like this, he also knows his second tier kids very well and how to manage them toward the desired result.  The Broncos are undefeated against sides outside the top 8, clearly a strong club and culture, have a long record over the Tigers and I think they get the job done again here and can cover the required line.

Bet 1 unit Broncos -11.5 $1.85 Ubet / -12.0 $1.90 William Hill


Dragons vs Cowboys

-1.5 Dragons

Stats

The Cowboys have won 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Dragons, including handing the Dragons their biggest defeat of the season in a 36-0 thumping when they last met in Round 5, but they will be without 5 key players for this clash, with Thurston, Scott, Morgan, O’Neill and Tamau all on Origin duties. The Cowboys did manage to win both of their matches last season without their representative stars, including the corresponding match against the Dragons. They come into this match with 6 wins from their last 7 matches and a 2-3 road record. They are 7-4 ATS, with a 13-7 covering record away from home since last year, while they are 10-3 covering on the road since 2014 when getting a start. They are 6-5 Over in TMP’s, with 4 of their last 6 decided that way. A Cowboys try has been the 1st scoring play in their last 5 matches and in 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Dragons. The Dragons have the week off after this match and they have lost 7 of their last 9 games heading into a Bye. They are yet to defeat a side currently in the Top 4, losing 4 from 4 but they have won 4 of their last 5 matches played at WIN Stadium, with their only loss coming against the Cowboys. They are 5-6 ATS and have covered in 11 of 16 at home since 2015. Take note that home favourites have only covered in 4 of the last 16 matches when Origin players have not been available. For just the 2nd time this season the Dragons start as a favourite and they have won 7 of their last 8 when starting as a home favourite. They are 9-2 Under in TMP’s, while the Under has saluted in 8 of their last 10 matches played at WIN Stadium. These 2 sides are at opposing ends of the attack rankings, the Cowboys currently sit 2nd, while the Dragons are 2 nd last. The Cowboys are yet to be outscored in the 2nd half, while the Dragons are yet to win a 2nd half with no side scoring more 2nd half points than the Cowboys and no side scoring fewer than the Dragons.

Preview

The Dragons are hard to tip, and hard to get but they do look like they get their chance here. They should be advantaged back at home and in Wollongong where they have won 5 of their last 7. They lose Dugan and are without Debelin, while the Cowboys clearly have key outs most notably Thurston, Morgan and their two big men up front.

I have some reservations over the Cowboys being a bit leg weary right now and possibly needing a bit of a freshen up. They struggled through the last 40 minutes vs the Storm, and unusually were unable to go up a gear and get the job done as they normally can. Then last week they again were fading from the 30 minute mark onwards, down 18-6 at the 50 minute mark and just looked leg weary and lacking any energy right across the park. From there we saw Thurston offer probably as good an individual stand out effort as I can remember, literally picking them up single handed and from sheer effort (as opposed to brilliance) taking them home to victory. For mine it was a stunning effort, as he too looked tired, but he was just driven by a determination to want to win. Not only did he then do this and pull the game back to an 18 all position, through that last 25 minutes the Cowboys also bombed 3 additional last pass plays. Staggering.

So missing 5 key players, and having looked a bit out on their feet at present the Cowboys have to be some risk here. But they have confidence, like the Broncos they have some quality next tier depth, and they won both games through the Origin period last season.

The Dragons, well they again fell short last week vs the Rabbits when they did have an opponent there to be beat but against a side lacking some key play makers and possibly attacking combination and points look to get their chance again to strangle an opponent out of the game.

Even with Cowboys being without 5 key top shelf players I only have this handicapped a single point apart. Lean to the Dragons being back with a decent home ground advantage and likely to be able to defend their opponent out of the game, but it looks a tough old affair and their record prior to a bye is not good (lost 7 of their last 9), you could certainly oppose them. Also lean to this being a low scoring unders game, but I have no interest.


Raiders vs Bulldogs

-6.5 Raiders

Stats

The only match of the Round featuring 2 last start winners sees the Bulldogs travel to the Nation’s Capital to take on the Raiders. Canberra caused a boil over when these 2 sides last met back in Round 5 and another win this week will be just the 2nd time in 13 years that they have beaten the Bulldogs twice in a season. They returned to the winner’s circle last week after losing their previous 2 and will be looking for back to back wins for the 1st time since Round 2. They are back at home for the 1st time in a month where they are 3 and 2 season to date, with their last start at home producing their biggest win of the season in a 60 point thrashing of the Tigers. They have struggled for wins at home against the Dogs in recent seasons, losing 3 of the last 4 but they get their chance here, with the Dogs having 3 key outs in Jackson and Klemmer, who are on Origin duties, while Hopoate will be out for the 3rd week in a row, as a result of the Dogs playing another Sunday game. The Raiders are 6-5 ATS with a poor covering record at home in recent seasons, producing a 12-17 result since 2014. In TMP’s they are 7-4 Over with only 3 of their 11 matches finishing under 40 and this has also been the case in 10 of their last 11 at home, while only 2 of the previous 6 clashes with the Bulldogs have totaled less than 40. For the 1st time since Round 2, the Bulldogs managed to put back to back wins together when they defeated the Roosters. They have won 5 from 6 this season as the away side, compared to just 2 wins as a home side to sit in 5th place on the ladder and are 1 of just 4 sides that haven’t been out of the Top 8 all season. They have led at half time in their past 6 matches, but have been outscored in the 2nd half in 6 of their last 9. They are 5-6 ATS, with a 4-2 covering record on the road, while they have covered in 11 of their last 17 as a road dog. The Dogs have a 7-4 Under TMP record and are 5-1 in favour of the Under when playing away. In the previous 6 encounters the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 8th minute and this has also been the case in 4 of the Bulldogs last 5 away games, while the team to score the 1st try of the match has gone on to win the last 10 clashes.

Preview

Two teams that can be difficult to catch match up as the best game of the short round, the Bulldogs have 3 key outs in Jackson, Klemmer and Hopoate while the Raiders lose Papalii.

The outs for the Bulldogs are significant, in particular two of their best forwards. They finally strung two wins together last week when beating the disappointing Roosters yet again were nothing outstanding themselves. Their form line is interesting, they come through wins against teams below them like Roosters, Tigers, Titans (just) yet across the last 6 weeks have not been able to match it with teams mid table or above like of the Eels (twice), Warriors and the Raiders last time they met. Their last two wins (Roosters, Tigers) are also against two teams struggling at the base of the table.

The Raiders are equally hard to read and inconsistent. Their best win season to date, by far was their impressive touch up over the Bulldogs back in round 5, at Belmore, where they were smacked 22-8, completely dominating the middle of the park. Yet since that game they have lost 4 of 6? To their advantage they now return home of 3 away games and but for Papalii (who’s form at present I don’t rate) field arguably their strongest line up for some time.

I have the game handicapped at 6.5 with advantage to the Raiders and I happy to stick with that. The Bulldogs should be smarting off their last beating by this opponent but then lose two key quality middle players, the Raiders return home and should again want to focus on playing to their strength through the middle, while at their best I think the Raiders have some combination and attacking strengths at 9, 7 and 6. Looks a good contest, I want to be with the Raiders for a small interest.

Bet 1 unit Raiders – 2.5 Sportsbet $1.90


Knights vs Eels

+15.5 Knights

Stats

Two last start losers’ closes out Round 12 in MNF when the Eels travel up the M1 to take on the Knights. The Knights have a very good record over the Eels, winning 7 of the last 8, including the last 5 meetings played at Hunter Stadium. The optimists will say that the Knights are due, but with just 1 win from 11 matches and such a young, inexperienced and ever changing roster (31 players so far), it’s hard to see anything other than an Eels win. The Knights are ranked last in both defence and attack, while the Eels have the 4th best defence so it’s hard to see how the Knights can score the 4 tries that they are likely to need to get the win. They have lost 5 in a row, conceding on average, almost 40 points a game while scoring a total of 22 during that time. Newcastle is 4-7 ATS and has failed to cover in 5 of 6 this season when getting a double digit advantage. They are 6-5 Over in TMP’s and they also favour the Overs at home, producing a 17-11 result since 2014. The Eels have lost 3 of their last 4 but have won 7 of their last 8 as a road favourite and they come into this match at their shortest price since 2014. They are 6-5 ATS and have covered in their last 4 as a road favourite. Parramatta is 8-3 Under in TMP’s, while 6 of their last 7 away games have finished the same way. They have conceded the 1st try in their last 5 matches and in 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Knights. Recent meetings have been closely fought contests, with 6 of the last 8 clashes decided by a margin of 1-12, while in the previous 6 encounters, the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 7th minute. The Knights have won 7 of their last 8 games of MNF at home, while the Eels have lost 7 of their last 11 Monday night fixtures.

Preview

The Eels couldn’t find any more trouble if they tried could they,but on paper this looks a lopsided game and one they should take some advantage in. They are still technically still a top 6 side and have come through a strong recent form line, led the Rabbits comfortably before running out of steam when run down late in a strong form game and then last Monday were close to a very good Storm offering for a long way, another excellent form reference given the quality of the Storms recent run including their win over the Cowboys but a week ago. They lose Jennings and have some slight doubts over Foran and Scott, but even so have some depth and strength in their names list that well out weighs that of their bottom of the table placed opponent.

The Knights currently average conceding 34 a week and come through a very soft form line game last week against another bottom of the table side in the Tigers. They lose Gagai and then a further 4 off the last week with injury in Jeremy Smith (key out), Stockwell, Jacob Saifiti and Lamb, add to this long term outs in Mullen, Rochow and two of the Mata’utia brothers and are talking 9 outs from their available top list – which for a club already struggling for quality let alone depth this is a major ask. Again to their credit they were very plucky last week but that was also against a very ordinary Tigers offering, this should be a very different level.

Knights currently average conceding 34 a week, come through a soft form line, have failed to actually score points at all at 3 of their last 5 starts and their best list is riddled with key outs. Clearly the Eels have had some problems of their own but if Arthur can get them simply focused on the job at hand here then it should be a mismatch.

Bet 4 units Eels -8.5 $1.90 Ubet  BB



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 12

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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