NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 11
NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 11
Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.
2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%
NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016
Rd 11 Game Handicaps
-7.5 Rabbits vs Dragons
-4.5 Cowboys vs Broncos
-9.5 Tigers vs Knights
-1.5 Warriors vs Raiders
-9.5 Sharks vs Eagles
-8.5 Panthers vs Titans
-2.5 Bulldogs vs Roosters
-4.5 Eels vs Storm
NRL Round 11 Recommended Bet List
Bet 1 unit Rabbits -6.5 $1.92 CrownBet
Bet 1 unit Cowboys H2H $1.86 Pinnacle
Bet 3 units Titans +12.0 $1.93 Pinnacle / Topsport BB
Bet 2 units Roosters +5.5 $1.91 Centrebet
Notes – Another tricky weekend as we continue to sift through inconsistent form offerings. If the Rabbits take any confidence out of their quality offering of last week and away win then they again look a 10 point or better winner vs an ordinary Dragons offering who have a terrible road record. Cowboys are 25 wins of last 31 at home, great game want to have a small interest with this advantage. Titans have a great record across last 3 years when road underdogs with a line start, let alone something as significant as +12.0 at Pinnacle, get very positive in with Peats and Panthers have only won one game this season by more than 2 pts and that was against the inconsistent Warriors. Roosters will be stung by their poor second half loss last Monday and have an excellent H2H record vs Bulldogs, this is a must win game for them. Pending final confirmation that Foran plays on Monday I am then most likely to also be with the Eels.
BB – Indicates Best Bet
Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons
Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).
Individual Game Tips
Rabbits, Cowboys, Tigers, Warriors, Sharks, Panthers, Roosters, Eels
Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.
Key Contest Stats
Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @
Rabbits vs Dragons
The Rabbits have won 7 of the previous 9 clashes with the Dragons, who won the most recent encounter back in Round 3 on a very wet Sunday afternoon at the SCG. It’s the Dragons 1st appearance at ANZ Stadium this season and they have lost 3 of their last 4 at the ground, as well as losing 3 of the previous 4 clashes with the Rabbits at the venue. Wins away from home have been hard to come by for the Dragons, losing 5 from 6 in 2016 and they have also lost 13 of their last 15 on the road long term. They are 5-5 ATS with a 5-10 covering record as an away side from their last 15 matches, while they have a 20-19 covering record since 2014 when getting a start. They continue to be the number 1 ranked side for Under results, with 9 of their 10 matches going Under, while the last 5 clashes with the Rabbitohs have also finished the same way. They remain the only side yet to outscore their opponent in the 2nd half, with an average of just 3.1 2nd half points per game and only once from the previous 9 clashes with the Rabbitohs have they won the 2nd half. They have conceded the 1st try of the 2nd half in 9 of their 10 matches and in 6 of their last 7 against the Bunnies. The Rabbitohs are looking for back to back wins for the 1st time since Round 2 but will need to overcome a poor recent record at ANZ Stadium, having lost 4 of their last 5 at the ground. They are also heading into a Bye after this match and their record pre Bye is poor as they have lost their last 3 and have a 6-8 win loss record since 2009. Their ATS record is also poor, producing a 4-6 result to this point, while they have a 5-10 covering record at ANZ Stadium since 2015. In TMP’s they continue to favour the Overs, to be 6-4 Over, while 5 of their last 7 matches at ANZ Stadium have totaled 50 or more. The Rabbitohs have scored the 1st try of the match in 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Dragons, while a Penalty Goal has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 10 meetings. Given that Thursday night games are 6-2 Under, both sides are struggling in attack and that the last 5 clashes have gone Under with the Dragons unable to score more than 10 points in the last 5, the Under 36.5 looks a likely outcome.
The Rabbits effort last week was their best season to date, the efforts of Reynolds, Inglis and through last 30 mins Keary turned a game around from 6-20 to a positive win. It’s hard to yet judge what substance there is to this, was in a positive lift under fire and pressure, is it one off or have they turned a few things around and can sustain this? Clearly Maguire has shaken things up internally, and the move of Inglis to at 6 and then centre role worked, a positive week but we need to see how the attitude and effort unfolds here and into the weeks ahead.
In their favour here is there opponent. How the Dragons are 5 and 5 is beyond me and any sensible reason, yet they have lucked their way through two or three wins like last week where their opponent ended up just being worst than them and they survived to the final point of being declared the winner (almost by default). They have two key forward outs, dysfunctional attack (two tries at best per game) and a terrible road record.
I want to be with the Rabbits, they should have a clear advantage here but for mine are still on trust.
Bet 1 unit Rabbits -6.5 $1.92 CrownBet
Cowboys vs Broncos
Friday Night Football travels to Townsville in what promises to be another block buster when the defending Premiers, the Cowboys host the Premiership favourites in the Broncos. It will be the 5 th time in 12 months that these 2 sides have met with the last 2 encounters proving to be 2 of the best you will ever see. Both sides have been the bench mark in the opening 10 Rounds and both teams are at full strength, with the Cowboys naming an unchanged line up for the 5th week in a row, while the Broncos have 3 keys ins with McCullough, Glenn and the hard man Adam Blair all returning after time on the sidelines. The Cowboys 5 game winning streak came to a halt against the Storm last week, while the Broncos returned to the winners circle against Manly after their 5 game winning run ended the week prior. The Cowboys have had the better of the Broncos in recent times, winning 4 of the previous 7 clashes and they have also won 5 of the last 6 clashes played in Townsville. They dropped to 4th spot on the ladder after last week’s loss, holding down top spot for just the 1 week. They have won 7 from 10 to be ranked 2 nd in attack and 3 rd in defence giving them the 2nd best differential. Their 3 losses have all been by 4 points or less, while 4 of their last 5 wins have been by 16 points or more. They are 7-3 ATS and have a 19-12 covering record at home since 2014, while H2H they have only been beaten at home 5 times since 2014 producing a 26-5 result. In TMP’s they are 6-4 Over and 18-13 Over at home since 2014 and 5 of the last 7 clashes with the Broncos have also finished the same way. Only once in the last 5 meetings with Brisbane have the Cowboys led at half time but they have outscored them in the 2nd half in all 5 matches and the Cowboys still remain as the only side yet to be outscored in the 2nd half this season, scoring on average more than twice that of their opponent. North Queensland have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 7 of the previous 10 clashes and the last try in 4 of the last 5 match ups. The Broncos regained top spot last week and have won 8 from 10 to get there. They are ranked 3rd in attack and 1 st in defence giving them the best differential in the comp. Their 2 losses have been by 1 and 2 points, while their last 4 wins have been by 22 points or more and only once this season have they posted a score of less than 21 points. They are 6-4 ATS and have a 5-1 covering record as a road dog since last year. In TMP’s they are 6-4 Under and 18-12 Under as an away side since 2014. Brisbane has scored the 1st try of the match in 8 of the last 10 clashes, while in the last 3 meetings the 1st scoring play has been a Brisbane Penalty Goal.
Blockbuster game between the two teams who look the current benchmark. Clearly there has been little between them through recent starts, and again it looks much the same.
The Cowboys looks a bit off their game last week in losing to the Storm, they leaked two soft tries within minutes late in the first half after jumping to an 8 point lead then looked to struggle to take things up a gear through the second half. They return home where they have an outstanding long term record winning 25 of their last 31 while they have also won 6 of the last 7 H2H with the Broncos when also at home.
Broncos get 3 key forwards back for the right game and come off another nice result getting the job done last week at home over the Eagles. I can’t know anything of what they are doing significantly, and clearly they’ll be up for the challenge here.
We have a cast of many lining up here only days away from being named for Origin, lets hope we see all minds cleanly focused on the task here and not anything in 10 days time. Super match up in the halves with quality of form through Thurston and Milford.
Looks another cracking match up, the home ground and the Cowboys outstanding record here looks to provide them a slight edge and I’m happy to take a small interest with such.
Bet 1 unit Cowboys H2H $1.86 Pinnacle
Tigers vs Knights
Super Saturday kicks off with 2 sides coming off heavy last start defeats. The Knights suffered their biggest ever loss at home against the Sharks, while the Tigers suffered their 2nd 30 something point loss in 3 matches when they went down to the Bulldogs. Both sides are anchored at the bottom of the defensive rankings and have conceded 111 tries between them. The Knights have now conceded 179 points from their last 4 matches and been kept to zero in 3 of them. If there is a positive to be found, it would be that they have won 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Tigers, including their last start at Campbelltown. They have conceded the 1st try of the match in 8 of their 10 matches as well as in 8 of the last 10 meetings with the Tigers. Only twice this season have they led at half time and 7 of their 8 losses have been by 18 points or more. They are 3-7 ATS and have failed to cover in 6 of their last 7 games on the road. In TMP’s they have a 6-4 Over record, with 5 of their matches totaling 48 points or more. The Tigers have won only half of their 14 matches at Campbelltown since 2013 and covered a line in only 2 of their last 7 at the ground. They are 4-6 ATS in 2016 with a 3-11 covering record since 2014 when giving up a start, while they have failed to win 7 of their last 8 when starting as a favourite. Like the Knights, the Tigers also have a 6-4 TMP record in favour of the Overs, with 6 matches totaling 48 or more. The last 4 meetings have been decided by a margin of 1-12, while the last 3 clashes have finished Unders in TMP’s with the Knights covering the line in those 3 matches.
Low game, likely full of errors, expect Tigers finish in front.
Warriors vs Raiders
The 2nd game on Super Saturday featuring 2 last start losers sees the Raiders travel across the ditch to take on the Warriors. The Warriors have won the last 5 clashes with the Raiders who find themselves on the road for the 3 rd consecutive week. The Raiders have recorded just 3 wins in 14 years when travelling to New Zealand. They have now lost 4 of their last 5 and as a result they have slipped out of the Top 8 for the 1st time this season. They have been slow out of the blocks in recent weeks, conceding the 1st try in 4 of their last 5 and in 3 of them they have failed to score a 1st half point. They have also been slow starters against the Warriors, conceding the 1st try in the last 5 encounters. They are split 5-5 ATS but have covered a line in 15 of their last 20 when getting a start and they have an 18-8 covering record since 2014 as a road dog. In TMP’s they are 6-4 Over, while 5 of the last 8 clashes with the Warriors have totaled 44 points or more. For the 3rd consecutive week, the Warriors are based in New Zealand, they have a Bye following this match and their recent record pre Bye is a positive won, having won their last 3. As is often the case, the Warriors have been hard to catch, going on a win loss sequence since Round 5 and if that trend continues they are due to win this week. They are 4-6 ATS and their 4 covers have come from 5 matches when they have given up a start. They also have a 13-10 covering record as a home favourite since 2014. In TMP’s they are 7-3 Over, with 6 of their last 7 decided that way. The Warriors have already used 33 players after 10 Rounds, which is the most of any club
Slight edge to the Warriors playing their 3rd game / week in NZ against the Raiders poor away record this year (again) and missing Fensom. But also another low game won by the less stupid of these two. Lean to Warriors.
Sharks vs Eagles
The battle of the beaches closes out Super Saturday when the struggling Sea Eagles travel to Cronulla to take on the 2nd placed Sharks. It’s proving to be a tough draw for the Sea Eagles as this will be their 4th game from 5 starts that they have played a team positioned in the Top 3 on the ladder at the time of each clash. The Sea Eagles have now lost 3 of their last 4 to be sitting in 12th spot on the ladder. One thing in their favour is that they have completely dominated the Sharks in recent years, winning 13 of the previous 14 clashes (the last 7 straight) and 7 of the last 8 meetings at Shark Park. 3 of their 4 wins have this season have been as the away side but they were all against sides currently sitting below them on the ladder, while their other win was against the Sharks in Round 3. Manly are 3-7 ATS and for the 2nd week in a row (and for only the 3rd time in 3 seasons) they have a double digit start. Since 2014 they are 12-12 covering as an underdog and 7-5 as a road dog, while they have covered a line in the last 5 clashes with Cronulla. In TMP’s they are 6-4 in favour of the Unders, while 4 of the previous 5 encounters with the Sharks have finished the same way. The Sharks are aiming for 8 consecutive wins for the 1st time since 2002 and are undefeated at home this season, winning 5 from 5. Their last 4 wins at home have been by 8 points or less, while 7 of the last 9 clashes with the Sea Eagles have been decided by a margin of 1-12 points. Only once this season have they been beaten by a side currently sitting out of the 8, which was in the previous clash with Manly. They have scored the 1 st try of the match in 8 of their last 9 and in 6 of their last 7 at home. They are 7-3 ATS to be ranked equal 1st as a covering side and they have covered a line in 7 of their last 10 as a home favourite. They are split 5-5 in TMP’s, with 5 of their last 6 matches going Over, while they have a 16-14 Under record at home since 2014.
While I expect the Sharks win the Eagles have an amazing recent hold over their opponent, having won 13 of the last 14 H2H contests including the last 7 straight – and 7 of the last 8 at Shark Park. However we might dismiss this on current form, I’m sure this comes into play here and makes a 12 point line interesting.
The Sharks have been very good and are on a 7 win streak but they come off a soft touch footy run last week flogging the Knights and have numerous key players hoping for Origin selection. The Eagles come through losses to Broncos and Cowboys and lose Tapaou. They have just not been a match near those at the top of the table through recent weeks, should Stewart return and play he has made a significant impact to their defensive structures and communication and then ads some class to their attack and finishing.
Sharks have won 5 from 5 at home and I expect that that advantage gets them home but I’m happy to stay away from a 12 point line.
Panthers vs Titans
After 5 weeks the Panthers finally get back to Pepper Stadium when they take on the Titans. A win this week will make it 3 straight for the 1st time since 2014 and they will fancy their chances after winning 4 of the previous 5 clashes with the Titans, as well as winning 4 of the last 5 H2H as the home team. They have won 3 of their last 4 with all 3 wins coming against sides in the bottom half of the ladder which is where the Titans are currently sitting. The have covered a line in 7 of 10 to be ranked equal 1st ATS and have an 8-6 covering record at Pepper Stadium since 2015. They are 6-4 Under in TMP’s and they also favour the Under at Pepper Stadium producing a 16-10 result since 2014. It’s now 10 consecutive matches for the Panthers with a margin result of 1-12 but 11 of the last 12 clashes with the Titans have been decided by 13+. A Panthers try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 4 clashes with the Titans who have conceded the 1st try in 8 of their 10 matches. Last week was the 1st time this season and only the 4th time since in 34 matches that the Panthers have scored 5 tries in a match but they have scored more than 5 tries in 4 of the last 7 clashes with the Titans. The Titans recorded a big win over the Roosters to snap a 5 game losing streak last Round which saw them move from 13th to 11th spot on the ladder. It’s the 1st of 3 away games for the Titans with a Bye after this match and their record pre Bye is terrible, with just 2 wins from their last 10. This will be the Titans 7th match against a Top 8 opponent and they are yet to register a win, losing the previous 6. They continue to be profitable ATS with a 7-3 result and they have covered in their last 3 on the road when getting a start. Their TMP results are split evenly at 5-5, while they are 11-5 Over since 2015 as an away side. The Titans recorded their biggest ever win over the Panthers in the most recent encounter but that was more than 12 months ago.
Interesting match up here and I expect the underdog can compete here. The competition table tells us that there is only one win difference between these two sides on the table, the Panthers with 5 wins the Titans with 4, and they each have very similar key stats on for and against averaging approx. 20 for each. I think this is closer than the markets have had it.
The Panthers return for their first home game in 4 weeks and that certainly should be an advantage, but the Titans have been competed well and close to the result in each of their away games to date. It’s hard to quality the depth through the Panthers recent form, two wins but over the inconsistent Warriors and Raiders, but it’s winning form which builds confidence. If they get a chance to open a game up with their second phase off load play they can be very dangerous and they have some young talent who are getting better by the week. What will be interesting here is the match up through the middle as I expect this is where the Titans will focus with their big, physical yet under rated forward line up and the Panthers have shown some weakness in being opened up here on a number of occasions. The Titans also have some strengths with their off load game although they were long time getting to it last week but when they did it certainly troubled and opened up the Roosters. The other issue will be edge defence from the Titans, as the Panthers off the back of support and second phase play can hit your edges quickly when less expected. Tactically this will be a very interesting game.
Peats is a major in for the Titans, we are talking a player on the edge of origin rep selection in a key leadership role, something the Titans are not flush with. I have been singing the praises of Taylor for many weeks now, the kid is a future superstar, composed, reading the play like a pro, has skill and soft touches with the ball or foot and can turn a game, these two have a bright future together. Also, as mentioned last week the Titans have now played 6 of their 10 games vs top 8 sides, a tough draw season to date that again highlights that although marked with a run of losses their recent form has been much stronger than it looks and their has only been just the one blow out loss.
While I expect the Panthers can squeak home for a win here I do think the Titans can compete and stretch things and the line is very generous. The Titans have one of the best away cover the line records of any team in the competition and its long established since 2013 – 79% record covering when interstate away and 67% covering interstate away when off a last start win – a 12 point line should take them a long way into this contest.
Bet 3 units Titans +12.0 $1.93 Pinnacle
Bulldogs vs Roosters
For the 4th consecutive week the Bulldogs find themselves playing at ANZ Stadium and they will play just 2 more games outside of NSW for the remainder of the season. They have won 3 of their last 4 at the ground and 9 of their last 12 long term, but have been defeated in the previous 3 clashes with the Roosters at the venue. If true to form the Dogs are due for another loss to continue their 9 game win loss sequence. They are 4-6 ATS and have failed to cover a line in the last 4 clashes with the Roosters. They are 7-3 Under in TMP’s and 22-13 Under at ANZ Stadium since 2014. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 6 of the last 9 clashes with the Roosters at ANZ Stadium while Curtis Rona has now been the Bulldogs 1st try scorer in their last 3 matches and has scored 19 tries from 19 appearances at ANZ Stadium. The Roosters have now lost 8 from 10 and will now need to win 10 of their last 14 to be any chance of playing Finals and that looks to be a very big ask considering 12 of their last 14 games are against sides currently in the Top 8. They do have a good record over the Bulldogs, winning 6 of the last 7 clashes and they have also won 3 of their last 4 at ANZ Stadium. They are 3-7 ATS and are 0-3 against Top 8 sides. In TMP’s they are 6-4 Over with 4 of their last 5 matches finishing Under. They have been poor on the road, winning only 1 of their last 6.
The Roosters are another who have a quality recent winning record over their opponent, winning 6 of the last 7 times they have met and 3 of the last 4 times when at this ground, and I think they can bounce back and win here. I was against them for a number of outline reasons last week but I expect that that loss might well sting them into something here. They had come off a soft touch footy run through of the Knights the week prior, were back to full strength and off to the glitter strip for a weekend away – and just didn’t aim up with attitude. They have now been embarrassed by that loss (and effort), Robinson would have given it to a few very directly this week, he has finally dropped the way over rated Hastings and I’m sure we will see a very focused and committed offering here. All of that doesn’t just win you a game but I think it will certainly take them a long way and show us something significantly improved.
The Bulldogs have been W L W L W L all the way through the opening 10 weeks, with scattered form quality that is all over the place and very hard to read. They come off a win last week over the Tigers that was as soft as butter their opponent reverting to their meek prior self and while they did look to have tweaked a few things with their attack its hard to gauge given the soft resistance they were offered (and since franked with the Tigers Knights offering).
The Roosters are 2 from 10, there is no doubt they have to make significant improvement but they do now have their best possible list in and I think the switch to Mattherson is a positive one as the kid looks a real level headed talent. The bottom line for them though is that this is all but a must win game, as will the weeks ahead be, they have to start winning as this is the starting point. I think they can win straight up and the line position we have should be a healthy advantage as they have been heavily bet through the last 3 days.
Bet 2 units Roosters +5.5 $1.91 Centrebet
Eels vs Storm
The Eels host the Storm in MNF to close out Round 11 in what shapes as 1 of the better matches of the Round. Parramatta caused a major upset when they last met the Storm, recording their 1st win in Melbourne in 10 years and that win was just 1 of 2 that the Eels have recorded from the last 7 clashes with the Storm. Parramatta is sitting in 6th spot – for the moment, with the 4th best defensive record, while they sit a lowly 12th in attack. They are 6-4 ATS and are 19-13 when covering at Pirtek Stadium over the last 3 seasons. In TMP’s they are 7-3 Under, while 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Storm have finished Over. The Eels have conceded the 1st try of the match in their last 4 and they have also conceded 1st in their last 3 meetings with the Storm, while they have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 8 of their last 9. The Storm currently sit 3 rd, with the 2nd best defensive record, while they are ranked 5th in attack. They come into this match off the back of 4 consecutive wins, including their best performance of the season last week against the Cowboys. They are 5-5 ATS and are 8-6 when covering as a road dog since 2014. They favour the Under in TMP’s with an 8-2 result, while they are 14-3 Under as an away side since last season. Both sides have proved tough to crack through their middle third, with the Eels conceding just the 1 try, while the Storm has conceded 2. Both sides have average records in MNF, the Eels have lost 6 of their last 10, while the Storm has lost 7 of their last 12 with the Under saluting in 9 of those 12 games. The Under has also come up trumps in 7 of the 9 games of MNF this season.
I have tipped the Eels mid week on the back of knowing that Foran was playing but given the media events and focus on his personal life over the last 24 hours I think it’s best to now just sit this game out. Foran has been a massive in for this side this year, and had a huge impact on their play, direction and defensively on their right edge, but we are only guessing now what state he might be in and how he performs.
The Eels should never have lost last week, they led 20-6, had done everything right to earn the win but I think had also played on a lot of emotion off the back of all the salary cap drama and ran out of that through the final 20 odd minutes to then be run down. They should actually improve having now got that game out of their system, they are again advantaged being at home and in front of the faithful but they also have a huge weight of pressure now sitting on their shoulder of needing to win every week. I think they have a physical advantage through the middle and can work the Storm over here but they are also going to need composure.
The Storm come off their best win this season, and a high quality form win, well above where I have had them pegged. They now sit top 4 and will have only grown further in confidence out of a strong away win against the defending premiers. They now face their third away game back to back into a tough venue (and have lost 4 of their last 6 here), have numerous players about to go into Origin week or a bye, there has to be some question as to how they aim up once again.
I originally found the game hard to split but with Foran back and the Eels desperate to win again went with them at home. I’m happy to stick with this, but also now happy not to have any play on the game.
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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 11
Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting
Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.
Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.
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