NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 6

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 6

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 6 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-14.5 Broncos vs Dragons

-10.5 Rabbits vs Roosters

-4.5 Eels vs Raiders

+6.0 Warriors vs Eagles

+4.5 Panthers vs Cowboys

-10.5 Sharks vs Titans

-1.5 Knights vs Tigers

-5.5 Storm vs Bulldogs


NRL Round 6 Recommended Bet List

Bet 3 units Rabbits -6.0  $1.90 Centrebet  BB

Bet 1 units Rabbits-Roosters Over 39.5  $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Eagles +8.5  $1.91 Unibet

Bet 2 units Warriors-Eagles Under 42.5  $1.85 Unibet

Bet 2 units Knights-Tigers Over 44.5  $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Storm-Bulldogs Over 35.5  $1.90 Pinnacle / Sportsbet / Topsport

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Rabbits, Raiders, Eagles, Cowboys, Sharks, Knights, Storm


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

-Broncos vs Dragons

-14.5 Broncos

Stats

History shows that the Broncos have proved a very difficult proposition for the Dragons when meeting at Suncorp Stadium, with Brisbane winning the previous 8 clashes at the ground dating back to 2009. Brisbane has also won 9 of the last 10 meetings across all venues, while a Broncos try has been the 1st scoring play in 9 of the last 10 clashes. There have been plenty of points on offer in recent meetings, with 5 of the last 7 clashes topping 48 points or more, while 10 of the Broncos last 16 matches at home have finished Overs in TMP’s. The Dragons are on leg 2 of their Qld road trip, are on a short 5 day turn around and they have lost 6 straight away from home, while no side has scored fewer points than them and in their last 4 matches and they have also failed to score a try in 6 of the 8 halves. The Dragons have covered in only 3 of their last 11 on the road and have had Unders results in 11 of their last 14 played away from home, while for the Broncos, they have won 13 of their last 15 at Suncorp Stadium and have covered a line in 20 of their last 28 at the venue. The Dragons are coming off a 36-0 thumping courtesy of the Cowboys and they have lost 8 of their last 10 following a match where they have conceded 30 or more points.

Preview


Rabbits vs Roosters

-10.5 Rabbits

Stats

Rabbitohs have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Roosters, as well as winning the last 3 clashes played at ANZ Stadium. They have won 8 of their last 12 at ANZ Stadium but have covered a line in only 4 of those 12. After scoring 90 points in their opening 2 games, the points have dried up in recent weeks as they have averaged less than 12 points a game from their last 3 and in 2 of their last 3 they have failed to score a 2nd half point. They have conceded the last try of the match in their last 4 but have scored the opening try in 4 of 5. They have a 3-2 TMP Over-Under record in 2016, while their record under lights is 13-7 Under since 2014. In line betting, they have covered 3 of 4 when giving up a start and they have also covered the line in their last 3 matches against the Roosters when starting as the favourite. The Roosters are staring at 6 consecutive losses for the 1st time since 2009, in that year they went on to win the spoon. They are ranked 13th in attack, 15th in defence and have conceded twice as many tries as they have scored, while no side has conceded more tries than the Roosters. They are the only side to have had Overs results in all 5 matches in 2016 and are 8-0 in favour of the Overs since last year’s Finals campaign. Only once this season have they covered a line, while it’s now 6 straight matches involving the Roosters where the 1st try has been scored by the 7th minute. Daniel Tupou has been the Roosters 1st try scorer in their past 3 matches played at ANZ Stadium.

Preview

I like the Rabbits here for a number of reasons, but certainly an additional key factor is if Adam Reynolds plays. My information through the last three days from someone very close to the camp that he has trained with the team three times this week with a view to playing, the final session the captains run yesterday. There may still be some doubt pending how he has pulled up today as the media continue to speculate but I am yet to hear anything different. If he does play it is a massive in as he has one of the best tactical and field position kicking games in the competition, let alone his general direction and play-making skills. Even with him not play I still have the handicap marked at least 10 points.

The Rabbits were certainly scratchy last week, they should have beaten the Eagles far more comfortably and clearly Maguire was into them at half time and I’d suggest since about their attitude. Playing their arch rivals the Roosters this week is probably good timing and might just be the tonic of focus required. I see some nice advantage physically through the middle which they should capatilise on.

The Roosters have now lost their opening 5 games and come off a disappointing loss to the Warriors where again they leaked 30 something points, and now after just 5 games are averaging a shocking 32 points against each week. What did catch my eye last week was them physically being worked over by the Warriors, time and again, and it taking some toll. They are loose, short on quality, have a thin bench and come off a tough physical game and travel into back to back away games at a ground their opponent plays very well at, I certainly want to risk them here.

This game also looks to have lots of points potential. Clearly the Roosters are leaking points, and their opening 5 games to date have all gone over 40 or more, while 3 of the Rabbits 5 to date have done similar. These two also match up with a history of high scoring games with 4 of their last 5 all also going over.

Bet 3 units Rabbits -6.0  $1.90 Centrebet  BB

Bet 1 units Rabbits-Roosters Over 39.5  $1.90 Sportsbet


Eels vs Raiders

-4.5 Eels

Stats

Raiders recent record over the Eels is a healthy one, winning 6 of the previous 7 clashes, including their last 2 visits to Pirtek Stadium. They will need to overcome a difficult preparation as they are on a short 5 day turn around and have lost 3 of their last 4 when backing up from MNF, as well as being on the road for the 2nd week in a row and only once in 11 years have they won back to back away games in consecutive weeks. The Raiders have now covered a line in 8 of their last 12 away games, while they have gone 10-4 Over as an away side since 2015. They have scored the 1st try in 4 of their 5 matches this season and also in 9 of the last 10 clashes with the Eels. The Eels are at home for the 2nd straight week, but it’s proved to be of little benefit in recent times as they have lost 8 of their last 10 at Pirtek Stadium and they have also failed to cover a line in 8 of those 10. All 5 of their matches have finished Unders in TMP’s, while the 1st try of the match hasn’t been scored until after the 12th minute in all 5 of their matches. They are ranked 2nd in defence, but sit 2nd last in attack with only the Dragons scoring fewer tries than the Eels. Consider Papalli, Croker and Edrick Lee in try scorer calculations as they have scored 9 of the Raiders 19 tries in 2015 while 7 of the Raiders last 11 tries against the Eels have been scored attacking to their left edge.

Preview


Warriors vs Eagles

+6.0 Warriors

Stats

Sea Eagles have pretty much owned the Warriors since 2010, winning 9 of the 10 meetings and they have also won 5 of the last 6 clashes played in New Zealand. A winning margin of 1-12 points has been the result in 5 of the previous 6 meetings in New Zealand, while in 7 of the last 10 clashes, the TMP’s have finished Unders. The Sea Eagles come into this match with a 2-3 record to be sitting in 13th spot and they are the only remaining side yet to lead a game at half time, averaging just 6 1st half points. They have won only 3 of their last 10 as a road dog and have a 5-9 ATS record as an away side since 2015. They have a 2-3 Over/Under record after 5 Rounds with both of their away games finishing Overs. After 11 straight losses, the Warriors are now aiming for 3 consecutive wins. They have gained some confidence after scoring 13 of their 22 tries in their last 2 matches and while a win is a win, the form line is soft with both wins coming against sides ranked 15th and 16th. They have won 12 of their last 15 as a home favourite and have covered a line in 8 of their last 12 at home when giving up more than a converted try. Only once in the previous 8 clashes has the 1st try of the match been scored prior to the 8th minute and both sides have been slow out of the blocks this season, with both sides conceding the 1st try in 4 of their 5 matches.

Preview

A key factor here is the pending weather with rain happening Friday and forecast through the weekend (bring it on hughie!!).

The Warriors have to be some risk here around a number of issues. Firstly they are shooting for 3 wins straight, a rare recent occurrence for them and they’d return here / home feeling a little more relaxed about themselves. off the back of those wins, and their opponents questionable recent form they are now very warm favs for this contest, something they are also not very good at caring. A wet track will certainly disadvantage them and they face an opponent who has held a commanding recent record over them winning 9 of the last 10.

The Eagles now have the benefit of a decent break and freshen up into this away game and while losing their last game I’m sure they have taken some confidence out of it with them hanging tough together all game and nearly causing a major late upset. They get some key ins here and will also have the significant benefit of some decent training sessions to build some improved attack and ball play options.

While the Warriors have won their last two they have done so against the bottom two teams on the table right now, hardly a strong form reference. They also continue to leak points. With wet conditions, and night game and likely stifled attack and points then the line start is certainly a major advantage to the Eagles (and I think they can win straight up) let alone the under total socre also a nice play.

Bet 2 units Eagles +8.5  $1.91 Unibet

Bet 2 units Warriors-Eagles Under 42.5  $1.85 Unibet


Panthers vs Cowboys

+4.5 Panthers

Stats

The only match of the Round featuring 2 last start winners closes out Super Saturday when the Cowboys travel to Pepper Stadium. The Cowboys have won 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Panthers, including 2 of their last 3 visits to Pepper Stadium where they recorded comprehensive wins with margins of 20 or more. The Cowboys have scored both the 1 st try of the 2nd half and the last try of the match in the previous 6 clashes with the Panthers and in 6 of the last 7 meetings the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 8th minute. The Cowboys are 1 of 5 sides yet to open their account on the road this season after losing their previous 2 away games, while they are 1-1 ATS away from home and are 11-6 covering on the road since 2015. They have had Overs results in 9 of their last 15 away games under lights, while there have been 40 or more points scored in 9 of the previous 10 meetings with the Panthers. No side has scored more 2nd half points than the Cowboys who are the only remaining side yet to lose a 2nd half. The panthers have won 2 of their last 3 and might count themselves unlucky that they haven’t won 4 of their last 5. All 5 of their matches have been decided by a margin of 1-12 and their last 4 have been decided by 2 points or less. They have covered a line in their last 4 but have covered only 6 of their last 11 at home when getting a start. In 6 of their last 8 at Pepper Stadium the TMP’s have finished Unders, while they have scored the 1st try of the match in 5 of their last 7 at home. This will be the Panthers last game at home for 5 weeks, with their next 2 home games played at alternative venues.

Preview


Sharks vs Titans

-10.5 Sharks

Stats

There has been very little between these sides since the Titans entered the comp in 2007, with the Sharks currently holding a 1 game advantage head to head. Recent meetings have been closely fought contests, with 5 of the previous 6 clashes decided by 6 points or less, while home ground advantage has meant little with the away side winning 5 of the last 7 encounters. Both sides have won 2 of their last 3 and all 3 of their respective matches were decided by a margin of 1-12. The Sharks have won 3 of their last 4 at home and have covered a line in 4 of 5 and also in 9 of their last 12 at Shark Park. 9 of their last 11 at Shark Park have finished Unders in TMP’s but they are 9-2 Over in day matches at home. They have scored the 1st points in 7 of their last 10 against the Titans, while in 6 of the Sharks past 14 matches played at Shark Park, they have opened the scoring with a Penalty Goal. The Titans have lost 7 of their last 8 on the road and have trailed at half time in 7 of them as well as trailing at the break in their last 4 straight. They have covered a line in 4 of 5 this season and have had Overs results in 6 of their last 8 away games. The Sharks have scored more than half of their tries attacking to their right edge, which is where the Titans have conceded 11 of their 19 tries this season, so consider Lewis, Bird and Holmes in FTS calculations. Holmes has also been the Sharks 1st try scorer in the last 2 clashes with the Titans.

Preview

As a straight out option I expect the Sharks at home win but I found this a tricky game to review and am happy to stay out. The Sharks should have an advantage here at home and have won their last two (Tigers, Storm) but I’m not so sure how strong that form is, and last week they got involved in a points shoot out (60 point game) that they could well have lost but for the Tigers clocking off on a number of occasions – and it’s quite possible something similar happens here with the Titans likely to want to open this game up.

Titans have been ok, but they have a poor recent record when travelling and in all reality were lucky to escape with an 8 point defeat last week after the Broncos led by 18 well into the second half.

I expect the Sharks can win but the line looks right either way, as does the total (which I made bang on 44), and I can’t see an angle or advantage in a play here.


Knights vs Tigers

-1.5 Knights

Stats

Two of the pre-season favourites for the wooden spoon clash in what shapes as the poorest match of the Round. The Knights have won 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Tigers, which includes 3 of the previous 4 encounters played at Hunter Stadium. The Knights are still looking for their 1st win, while the Tigers have lost 3 straight after winning their opening 2 matches. It’s only the 2nd home game of the season for the Knights after spending 4 of the past 5 weeks on the road. They have won only 2 of their last 11 at home but are 11-0 ATS when starting as a home underdog since 2014. They are currently ranked 14th in attack and 16th in defence, conceding an average of 32 points a game. In TMP’s they are 4-1 Over and 11-4 Over in day matches at home since 2014. The Tigers have lost 7 of their last 8 games on the road and have covered a line in only 4 of their last 18 away from home. They have conceded the 1st try of the 2nd half in all 5 matches in 2015 (only side to do so) and only the Knights have conceded more 2nd half points than the Tigers. A Tigers try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of the previous 10 clashes with the Knights and in 9 of their last 10 away games, the 1st try has been scored by the 7th minute (5 for and 5 against). Only once in the previous 9 clashes with the Knights have the Tigers led at half time and only once from their last 8 away games have they led at the break. Since 2014, the road favourite has a 16-40 ATS record in the opening 6 weeks, with the record, going with the Knights with the start.

Preview

Looks another points shoot out here, and afternoon game with two sides who are happy to throw the ball about and are not noted defenders. The Knights are leaking 32 points a week at present and come against a side that when they click can put on some outstanding attack, the Tigers are leaking 24 a week and have now at two of their last 3 outings let through 30 or more points. This certainly looks an attack feast.

The Knights should well have won last week in Melbourne, a fine effort of a tough away gig, I’d suggest they will take some confidence out of that and in returning home have some advantage as their best footy is played here. They also hold a nice H2H recent record winning 4 of the last 5 times they have played. The Tigers away road record outside of Sydney is not good and they were dusted up when warm favs only weeks ago when travelling outside of Sydney to the Titans so again a significant risk. I also just don’t have confidence in them being able to manage games all the way through 80 minutes, they can put on 15 or 20 minute bursts like no other but then quickly clock off and leak points quickly like no other.

I went with the Knights being back at home but nothing would surprise here. As suggested it does look a points shoot out and that’s the way I want to play the game.

Bet 2 units Knights-Tigers Over 44.5  $1.90 Sportsbet


Storm vs Bulldogs

-5.5 Storm

Stats

Dogs travel to Melbourne to close out Round 6 in what has the potential to be 1 of the matches of the Round. History shows its 3 years since Melbourne last defeated the Bulldogs, with the Dogs recording 5 consecutive wins over the Storm, 3 of which they were the away side. 4 of the Dogs 5 wins have been by 13+ with an average winning margin of 26 points and they have scored almost twice as many points as the Storm from the last 10 clashes. The Dogs have scored the last try of the match in 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Storm and they are the only remaining side to have scored the last try in all 5 Rounds of this season. The Storm is unbeaten at AAMI Park this season, winning 3 from 3, but the 3 wins were against sides currently ranked in the bottom 8. Their only match against a current Top 8 opponent resulted in a loss to the Sharks. Melbourne is 9-7 ATS at home since 2015 and 6-6 at home in night games, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 7 games of MNF. They are ranked 10th in attack and in 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Dogs they have scored 4 points or less. Both sides have a good record in MNF, with the Storm losing just 2 of their last 10 Monday matches played at AAMI Park, while the Dogs have won 6 of their last 8. In 4 of the 5 games of MNF in 2015, the TMP’s have finished Unders (long term it’s 32-22 Under) and this has also been the result in 13 of the Bulldogs last 17 night games, while Melbourne’s night games are also in favour of the Unders, producing a 17-7 Under record at night since 2015.

Preview

Two teams searching for some consistent form, but very typical of these early rounds of the competition. The Storm have the advantage of a 9 day back up and back to back home prep, the Bulldogs get 7 days and into an away leg.

The Storm have only dropped the one game but haven’t been in stand out form, they were close to a loss last week but the Knights form probably reads a bit stronger than many think. They are certainly advantaged at home and always get the rub of the green and advantage here (again shown last week). Up against a more high profile opponent and into a prime time game I’m expecting more of them here, as I’m sure Bellamy is. The Bulldogs are hard to access, poor last Monday in a game set up for them with their return to Belmore, they were jumped early and never really in the game, their attack again stop start and lacking cohesion in the halves. They have a good record over the Storm, but right now are hard to read.

I favour the Storm being at home, and while this game looks a tight offering I think the markets have over reacted and have the total points position way low. The forecast is for very light showers or drizzle should they happen and just a few mm’s off the back of a dry weekend, yet we now have a total set at 35.5 (so under or over 34) which is significantly low, I think too low. I am playing over 34.

Bet 2 units Storm-Bulldogs Over 35.5  $1.90 Pinnacle / Sportsbet / Topsport



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 6

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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