NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 5

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 5

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 5 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+2.0 Eagles vs Rabbits

+17.5 Titans vs Broncos

-17.5 Storm vs Knights

+3.4 Tigers vs Sharks

-13.5 Cowboys vs  Dragons

+2.0 Roosters vs Warriors

-7.5 Eels vs Panthers

-11.5 Bulldogs vs Raiders


NRL Round 5 Recommended Bet List

Bet 3 units Broncos -12.5  $1.91 Sportsbet  BB

Bet 2 units Storm-Knights Over 42.5  $1.90 Luxbet

Bet 2 units Cowboys-Dragons Under 38.5  $1.90 Sportsbet

Bet 2 units Roosters-Warriors Over 42.0  $1.93 Tabcorp

Bet 1 unit Bulldogs -6.5  $1.90 Ubet or Crownbet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Rabbits, Broncos, Storm, Tigers, Cowboys, Warriors, Eels, Bulldogs


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Eagles vs Rabbits

+2.0 Eagles

Stats

Rabbitohs have won 3 of the previous 4 clashes with the Sea Eagles, but they have only recorded 4 wins in 23 years when travelling to Brookvale Oval. They are off the back of a 30 point loss after conceding 40+ points for only the 5th time over the last 5 seasons. They do get Sam Burgess back who will no doubt restore some confidence as they have looked lost without him. The Sea Eagles are aiming for 3 consecutive wins but they are on a short turn around as well playing their 3rd match in 10 days and are without Cherry-Evans. 7 of the last 9 clashes have produced Unders results in TMP’s, while a Rabbitohs Penalty Goal has been the 1st scoring play in 5 of the last 8 encounters at Brookvale Oval. The Sea Eagles have covered the line in only 1 of their last 4 at Brookvale Oval, while 4 of their last 5 matches at the ground have finished Unders in TMP’s. The Rabbits have covered a line in only 3 of their last 10 on the road when giving up a start and have a TMP record of 10-3 Under from their previous 13 matches away from home. Consider Alex Johnston in try scorer calculations as he is 1 of only 3 remaining players in the NRL to have scored a try in each game they have played in 2015 (Hopoate for the Bulldogs and & Hiku for the Panthers are the other 2).

Preview

Eagles well advantaged back at Brookvale where they have won 8 of the last 10 H2H against the Rabbits but they look like they are going top need every ounce of that here. They face their 3rd game in 10 days on the back of two 5 day turn arounds but worse still have some serious injury outs and key positional changes, with Cherry-Evans, Buhrer and Symonds damaged last week and now added to their long injury list. There are also whispers about of doubt over Walker and Matai being in doubt (and the market moves appear to reflect this), so who knows what team list and key positions they end up running out. Add to this a lucky escape last week with a late win over a side yet to open their account..

The Rabbits get Sam and Tom Burgess back, Sam clearly a huge influence, his out last week a massive mental blow to their confidence as they were humbled through the first half by the Bulldogs with a very meek offering. It’s hard to consider that a side that had comfortably rattled up big wins in their opening two rounds on the back on one major out would falter to such a degree, but Sam has a significant influence on the persona of this team. The other key missing ingredient is the quality kicking game of Reynolds, a major miss.

On paper given all of this, in particular all that the Eagles are up against then the Rabbits should win, but there remains a heap of questions over the game and I’m happy to just watch. There can’t be a lot to like about a side that leaked 40 odd last week and rolled over so quickly, now go to a ground where they have a very poor long term record and yet now concede the start – that’s how crazy all of the issues over this game are. I’m not interested in backing up into that with out seeing the Rabbits go around. The market line has kept moving against the Eagles all week which suggests that they either have further injury issues or that Reynolds may be a late inclusion for the Rabbits. If I was to lean to anything it would be Under on the total.


Titans vs Broncos

+17.5 Titans

Stats

Its back to back Queensland derbies for the Broncos when they take on the Titans after last week’s GP thriller over the Cowboys. The Broncos start as short priced favourites and it’s their shortest price since they last met the Titans in Round 20 last year. Brisbane has won 11 of the last 13 clashes with the Titans, including 5 of the last 7 meetings at Robina Stadium. A margin of 13+ has been the result in 6 of the Broncos last 7 wins over the Titans with an average winning margin of just over 20 points. The Titans have conceded the 1st try in their last 3 matches and a Broncos try has been the 1st scoring play in 4 of the last 5 clashes. The Broncos have also scored the last try in 9 of the last 11 meetings, while the 1st try of the match has not been scored until after the 7 th minute in 7 of the last 8 encounters. The Titans have trailed at half time in their last 3 matches, while the Broncos are 1 of 2 sides that are yet to trail at half time (Storm is the other) and no side has scored more 1st half points than the Broncos, while no side has scored more 2nd half points than the Titans. The Broncos have covered a line in their last 4 matches when giving up a double digit start and they have also covered in their last 3 clashes with the Titans who have covered in their last 5 matches at home. This shapes as 1 of the better matches of the Round and is the only game featuring 2 last start winners.

Preview

Titans return off an away travel leg to a major local derby but are picking up key injuries for a squad with questionable depth. They now lose another key half in Tyrone Roberts but have had Ryan James cleared to play (key in). The Titans have been plucky through their last two (Raiders and Tigers) but that formline has questions over it and this should be a different level of contest. Also, in each of their last 3 games they have been done by a margin and realistically could/should have been rolled on each occasion yet then turned the last two games into late wins, more I think at this stage to do with the opponents than quality footy. I suspect under sustained pressure they can leak points here.

The Broncos come through that outstanding contest last Friday night, have a full 7 day at home turn around with just a bus trip down the road for this away game and come through an exceptionally strong form line. Hunt has still been poor, and some of his kicking and last play options last week were again terrible and represent a kid really struggling with confidence, but the Broncos have a quality list around him including Milford in outstanding form. The return of Oates and Reed further pluses in strengthening their outside edges, and Oates is a major meter eater and quality finisher.

Across the list depth and quality then handicap I have quite a gap between these two, the Broncos any where near their best should do a job here.

Bet 3 units Broncos -12.5  $1.91 Sportsbet  BB


Storm vs Knights

-17.5 Storm

Stats

The only match of the Round featuring 2 last start losers when the Knights take on the Storm. Newcastle caused 1 of the biggest upsets of the season when they last traveled to AAMI Park, recording just their 2nd win in Melbourne in 11 years. They have now won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Storm but it’s hard to see lightning striking again. They are off the back of a trip to New Zealand followed by this trip to Melbourne all inside 5 days. The majority of recent meetings have been closely fought, with 6 of the last 8 clashes having been decided by a margin of 1-12 points and 3 of the last 6 decided by just 2 points. The Knights have scored the 1st try in 5 of the last 6 clashes, including the last 4 meetings at AAMI Park. Melbourne has covered a double digit line in 5 of their last 7 at home, while the Knights have failed to cover in 8 of their last 10 on the road. In TMP’s, the Knights are the only side who have had all 4 games finish Overs, while Melbourne have also had Overs results in 6 of their last 7 daytime matches played at home.

Preview

Both sides on 5 day back ups, Storm have benefit of returning to a home game but the Knights come have off a NZ return leg to Newcastle then the quick back up down to Melbourne. The Knights are also not a noted travelling team especially to distant away venues and have only ever won 2 contests here, they also have the disadvantage of many young inexperienced players on their list, so this is likely to have been a tough week.

Storm / Bellamy don’t like losing, and off that loss last Monday and with two key forwards back I expect they aim up here and win, as the markets and handicaps agree.

I do like the play of total points over. We have a day game on what should be an open fast track, the Storm have been overs at 6 of their last 7 day games, the Knights over at all 4 of their last day games. If as I suspect the Storm want to put their foot down here then we should see plenty of points, the Knights last 3 games have provided 54, 48 and 58 point totals, if they can contribute two or more tries to this game then we should certainty see an overs result.

Bet 2 units Storm-Knights Over 42.5  $1.90 Luxbet


Tigers vs Sharks

+3.4 Tigers

Stats

The Tigers have won 15 of the last 19 clashes with the Sharks who travel to Campbelltown for the 1st time in 8 years, while its 14 years since they last recorded a victory at the ground. Both sides come into this match with a 2-2 record and both sides losses have been by 1-12, while they have each recorded a 13+ victory, which has also been the result in 4 of the 5 most recent clashes. Both sides are on a 5 day turn around and they have both struggled with the short preparation, the Tigers losing 8 of their last 9 and the Sharks losing 5 of their last 7. The Sharks have covered the line in 5 of their last 7 away games while they have had Unders results in all 4 of their matches this season, while the Tigers have covered a line in only 2 of their last 6 at Campbelltown and have had overs results in 6 of their last 7 matches.

Preview

The Campbelltown venue makes this a very interesting if not tricky game. The Tigers have won 15 last 19 vs Sharks at any venue, and so hold a dominant H2H advantage, they to play their best footy at this ground. Worse still for the Sharks, it’s 14 yrs since they have won at the venue. Both teams come off short 5 day turn arounds.

Looked a very tricky match up to me. Typical of a Rd 5 game the Tigers fit the bill of a side off two recent losses under a bit of internal focus and pressure desperate to aim up, win and get their season going again. While they couldn’t score a point last week the Eels form line does read strongly, and we do know that if on their 7, 6 and 1 can have a significant attacking influence on a game, but as a team they can be hard to catch. The Sharks were much better last Monday night when back at home, they also created some nice line break plays to advantage through the middle and also bombed probably a further 3 scoring opportunities.

A Sharks win wouldn’t surprise me at all, but I’m going with the Tigers to upset given the clear advantage they have enjoyed and carry longer term over the opponent and at this ground. Not a game I could touch with any betting play at all.


Cowboys vs  Dragons

-13.5 Cowboys

Stats

The Dragons have lost 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Cowboys and its 11 years since they last recorded a victory in Townsville. It’s the 1st of 3 games that the Dragons will play in Queensland over the next 3 weeks and they will need to address their poor away record as they have lost their last 5 games on the road, while the Cowboys have won 11 of their last 13 games at home. For the 1st time this season (and 1st time from last 7 outings) the Cowboys will not be able to field the same 17, with Kane Linnett missing with a shoulder injury. The Cowboys have scored 16 tries after 4 Rounds, 7 of them by a forward and the other 9 from their backline with all of the backs crossing at least once with the exception of JT who is yet to cross. The Cowboys have scored the 1 st points of the match in 8 of the last 10 clashes with the Dragons, who have opened the scoring with a Penalty Goal in their last 3 matches. The Cowboys are 1 of 2 remaining sides that are yet to be out scored in the 2nd half, while no side has scored fewer 2nd half points than the Dragons. The Cowboys are 7-1 Over in TMP’s from their last 8 at home and have covered a line in 5 of the 8, while the Dragons have covered in only 3 of their last 10 on the road and have had Unders results in 10 of their last 13 played away from home.

Preview

The Cowboys also come out of that classic game in Brisbane last weekend, into a return home game. The Dragons while defending well have come through some tough, grafting if not ugly games and now face a distant away contest.

I expect the Cowboys to be too professional in how they manage this game, and unlike their opponent they have some smarts about their attack and points in them. The Dragons tho can often drag an opponent down into an arm wrestle, 10 of their last 13 away games have seen under results, their opening 5 games this season have each provided low scoring under results, while 11 of the last 15 H2H between these two teams have also produced under results, and that’s how I want to play the game.

Bet 2 units Cowboys-Dragons Under 38.5  $1.90 Sportsbet


Roosters vs Warriors

Gosford

+2.0 Roosters

Stats

These 2 sides have racked up 1 win between them from their last 10 matches combined. Its 6 wins for the Roosters from the last 8 clashes with the Warriors, including the last 3 straight. They will be hoping for a change of fortune with a change of home venue, but Gosford Stadium has not been a happy hunting ground for the Roosters as they have lost 7 of their last 8 at the ground, while the Warriors away record also reads poorly, having lost their last 6 on Aussie soil. The previous 4 clashes played in Australia have totaled 35 points or less and with both sides spluttering in attack, a low score again looks likely. Points have come early in all 4 of the Roosters matches this season and they are the only side to be involved in matches where the 1st try has been scored prior to the 7th minute in all 4 Rounds. The Warriors are 1 of 3 sides that are yet to go to half time with a lead and they are the only side to have conceded the 1st try of the 2nd half in all 4 Rounds. The fact that the Warriors start as the favourite indicates how badly the Roosters must be travelling but you couldn’t tip the Warriors on recent history.

Preview

Very tricky game to tip the winner with this being played at a neutral ground in Gosford between two teams who have won a total of just 1 game between them in their combined last 10 games, and teams that leak points at will.

The Roosters should have won last weekend but for a poor bunker decision, but were still (at home) involved in a 40 point game. The are desperately missing a long list of key outs, now at least 6 top grade players which has punched a major hole in their quality, depth and combinations. Coach Robinson has all but been reinventing his structures and patterns of play while they have also come through a tough run of opponents. The Warriors finally broke through last week after a run of 11 losses with a home win but arguably against a bottom two opponent yet were stretched to 18 all at half time and then a lopsided run of ball early into the second half flattered the effort. They should have the advantage of a stronger list and combination, and with some ball do have some line break and points in them especially against teams like this current Roosters side who can leak points.

These two sides have each been leaking points, shown a preparedness to attack and each been involved in numerous high scoring points games season to date and that is the way I want to play this. The Roosters are leaking 32 points a game after just 4 while the Warriors are conceding 24 yet are worse still when on the road into Sydney or Oz where they have lost their last 6 away games and have a terrible longer term record. With the total points for this game set at 22 each that certainly stands out as the play.

Bet 2 units Roosters-Warriors Over 42.0  $1.93 Tabcorp


Eels vs Panthers

-7.5 Eels

Stats

The Eels have won 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Panthers, while the Panthers have won 3 of the last 4 clashes at Pirtek Stadium. Parramatta has won 3 in a row and a win over the Panthers will give them 4 consecutive wins for the 1st time in 5 years. They will need to overcome a poor recent record at Pirtek Stadium, recording just 2 wins from their last 9 matches. They have conceded the 1st try in 9 of their last 10 at the ground and they have also conceded the 1st try in 9 of the previous 11 clashes with the Panthers. The Eels have covered a line in their last 3 and on average, they are conceding less than 10 points a game, with the best defensive record in the competition, they kept the Tigers to nil last week and that was only the 2nd time in 5 years that they had kept an opponent scoreless. The Panthers are coming off their 3rd loss after a narrow defeat to the Dragons and find themselves on the road again this week. They have lost 8 of their last 9 away games and last week was the 1st time from their previous 5 games on the road that they have covered a line. They have had Overs results in 10 of their last 13 day time matches played away from home and 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Eels have also had the same result. In 6 of the Eels last 7 matches at Pirtek Stadium, the winning margin has been by 1-12 points and this has also been the margin outcome in all 4 of the Panthers matches in season 2015. Look to Peta Hiku as an anytime try scorer ($3.10) as he has been the Panthers 1st try scorer in their last 3 matches and has crossed for a try in their opening 4 games.

Preview

Parramatta Stadium is normally a significant advantage for the Eels and they return here for this in good quality form winning 3 for their first 4, conceding under 10 points a game and coming through arguably the strongest formline of any team right now (including Broncos, Cowboys and Bulldogs). The acquisition of Foran and Scott has made a significant difference to their defensive experience and read of the game, and offered key experience in particular to their right edge D, while Foran’s quality in directing them around the park has been nothing but professional. Right now they are a hard nut to crack, they give you very little and have a big physical pack to hurt you set after set on the way through.

What to say about the Panthers. They are riddled with skill and ability, especially with some of their talented youth but unfortunately have a coach who has no idea how to construct or execute their attack. They are 1 from 4 and have murdered numerous plays let alone games already, including last weeks game vs Dragons which now reads as ordinary rubbish (as it looked) given the Dragons pathetic offering last night in Townsville. The Panthers are nothing but frustrating to watch or read given the obvious potential they have.

I can’t go past the Eels at home and I’d expect their defensive structures will turn this into another physical arm wrestle. They do have some key players who can turn half a chance into a try, as they did last week and I think that’s where and how they win here. Given the likely style of contest I don’t want to play with a 6 to 8 point margin.


Bulldogs vs Raiders

Belmore

-11.5 Bulldogs

Stats

Bulldogs return to Belmore in the final match of the Round when they take on the Raiders. History shows its 18 years since the Raiders last played a match at Belmore and in that meeting, their half back was their current Coach in Ricky Stuart. The Dogs have won 4 of the last 5 clashes, including the last 3 straight, with all 3 wins coming by a margin of 1-12. In the previous 5 encounters the 1st try of the match has been scored prior to the 7th minute and this has also been the result in 9 of the Raiders last 12 games on the road. The Bulldogs have been poor at covering a line when playing at home, failing ATS in 5 of their last 6 as a home side, while the Raiders have a 9-5 covering record away from home over the last 2 seasons when getting a start of more than a converted try. In 3 of the 4 games of MNF in 2015, the TMP’s have finished Unders and this has also been the result in 12 of the Bulldogs last 16 night games, while the Raiders night games are also in favour of the Unders, producing a 12-9 Under record at night since 2014. In MNF, the Bulldogs have won 6 of their last 7 and all 6 wins have had a margin result of 13+, while the Raiders have lost 3 of their last 4 Monday night fixtures and this will be the 1st time they have played a Monday night game away from home since 2012.

Preview

Do the Raiders rush back both halves as selected? Personally I would be surprised but there seems no late info to suggest any different although the markets have firmed up a point in the Raiders favour. The Bulldogs have a healthy H2H winning 4 of the last 5 including the last 3 and have a further significant advantage with this game being played at Belmore.

Should their halves play then certainly this improves the Raiders list strength and importantly attacking punch and kicking game. As suggested last week while offering plenty of effort their form line and offering has been quite questionable and while they could well be undefeated they could also very easily be o and 4.  They have a bad habit of clocking in and out of games once again true in each of their four offerings this season including their late fold last week to the Titans. Further to this hot and cold in game form is that they are now conceding 22 points a game and have a bad habit to letting through quick tries in succession.

Lichaa is now a likely late inclusion for the Bulldogs at #9, a key in as they have had some issues with quality service and direction on occasions through recent weeks. While they were nothing but impressive last week in thumping the Rabbits through the first 40 minutes I’m not sure what we draw from that given how pathetic the Rabbits forwards actually were. Certainly when they are able to get their big forwards rolling they can create plenty of go forward and momentum, and while their attack and halves combination has spluttered at times through rds 2 and 3 there is no denying the quality of their defensive offering at present conceding just 13 points a week.

Very hard not to see the Bulldogs aim up at Belmore and be hard to beat here. Defensively they are well structured, offer little and are likely to frustrate the Raiders, who under pressure can turn over ball and error at critical times. I like the Bulldogs by 10 or more and want to have a small interest for them to cover the line.

Bet 1 unit Bulldogs -6.5  $1.90 Ubet or Crownbet

Note -5.5 Pinnacle or -6.0 elsewhere now available Monday afternoon.



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 5

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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