NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 3

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 3

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 3 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

-15.5 Cowboys vs Roosters

-6.5 Bulldogs vs Eels

Even Knights vs Raiders

+5.5 Panthers vs Broncos

-2.5 Titans v Tigers

Even Warriors vs Storm

+5.5 Dragons vs Rabbits

-1.0 Eagles vs Sharks


NRL Round 3 Recommended Bet List

Bet 2 units Cowboys -10.5  $1.90 Centrebet

Bet 1 unit Panthers-Broncos Under 39.5  $1.91 Centrebet

Bet 2 units Dragons-Rabbits Under 42.5  $1.90 Sportsbet  BB

Bet 1 unit Sharks +1.5  $1.91 Centrebet

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Cowboys, Bulldogs, Knights, Broncos, Titans, Storm, Rabbits, Sharks


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

Cowboys vs Roosters

-15.5 Cowboys

Stats

Roosters have more often than not, enjoyed their trips to Townsville, winning the 1st 7 clashes with the Cowboys at the ground, while things have evened up since then, with wins shared equally at 5 a piece dating back to 2005. The Roosters have won 3 of the 4 most recent encounters, while in the last 6 meetings, the side to score the 1st try has gone on to win the match. Both sides are on a short 5 day turnaround and off the back of a loss, but the Roosters still have a number of key outs and are on the road for the 2nd week in a row with a distant away game which hardly makes for an ideal preparation. The Cowboys will be stinging after their 1st loss as the defending Premiers and they have won 10 of their last 12 at home, scoring on average 28 points. 3 of the last 5 clashes have topped 60 points and with hot and humid conditions in Townsville, there is the likely hood of this match opening up and offering plenty of points, particularly if the Roosters fail to address their issues in defence.

Preview

I like quality form teams off an away loss returning home as the Cowboys do here, and in this instance we are talking the Premiers off a good quality form game but loss. The Cowboys have solid structure, a consistent quality 17 week in week out at present an play at home with this outstanding long term winning advantage including the recent run of winning 10 of their last 12. I see them playing to their strengths down each edge in attack and working over the general inexperienced edge defenders of Roosters, plus the Cowboys defence has again been excellent through recent weeks and will pose a significant barrier for the rookie halves and attack play of their opponents.

Lets put into perspective how poor the Roosters have been. Flogged first week by the Rabbits in an arch rival game, they then folded quicker than a card table last week when they had that game shot to pieces against an opponent who a) had their two most important players and play makers out, and b) played the second half with just 15 players. Disgracefully poor. They are desperately missing the quality and leadership of their 3 key outs and then the impact of the cap enforced list shake up that they will be going through all season long. They now face back to back distant away games and this second one a tough ask into Townsville.

Thurston had a poor night last week with many key errors, he doesn’t do that often, Cowboys are strong at home and should have a point to prove here, I’m keen that they will.

Bet 2 units Cowboys -10.5  $1.90 Centrebet


Bulldogs vs Eels

-6.5 Bulldogs

Stats

History shows that the Bulldogs have owned the Eels in recent seasons, winning 9 of the last 10 clashes since 2011, scoring more than double the points scored by Parramatta. The Eels have had a horror run at ANZ Stadium, losing 19 of their last 21, while the Bulldogs have won 6 of their last 7 at the ground. Both sides favour the Unders in TMP’s at ANZ Stadium, the Bulldogs have had 6 of their last 8 games finish that way, while the Eels have had the same result in 6 of their last 7 at the venue and Unders has also been the outcome in 3 of the last 4 clashes. A Bulldogs try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of the last 9 match ups, while the Eels have also conceded the 1st try in 8 of their last 10. Semi Radradra has been the Eels 1st try scorer in 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Bulldogs.

Preview

I think the handicap and market are about right but this is a game I think best to watch as after just two games I am still trying to get a quality read on both. The Bulldogs were nothing but impressive first up but the Eagles formline looks pretty soft right now and they then came out the other side of a dogged arm wrestle with a last minute win, but there also remains some doubt over Reynolds. Also, much like last week here they will match up against another big physical forward line up. The Eels come off two good efforts, last week a nice win over the Cowboys, again a tough physical contest and significant benefit with their halves back together and Foran calling the shots. But they lose two key forwards (Peats and M’au) and play at a ground that they just can’t turn a trick losing 19 of their last 21 games here and up against an opponent that has dominated them including 6 x 13+ results out of their last 9 wins.

The Bulldogs should hold lots of advantage here and I expect they win but it’s just not a game I want to roll into.


Knights vs Raiders

Even

Stats

The 1st away game of the season for the Raiders and the 1st home game for the Knights, but the home ground has proved to be little advantage for Newcastle in recent meetings with Canberra, as the Raiders have won 3 of the last 4 matches played at Hunter Stadium, while they have also won 4 of the last 5 H2H. More often than not, these meetings have been one sided affairs with 8 of the last 9 and 13 of the previous 15 clashes having been decided by a margin of 13+. There are usually plenty of points on offer when these sides meet, with a TMP average of 48 since 2008 and 3 of the last 5 have totaled 58 or more. A Raiders try has been the 1st scoring play in the last 4 meetings, while the Knights have conceded the 1st try in both of their games this season.

Preview

Knight looks a little stronger this week and the return home for their first game her off two very poor away offerings. They are hard to like but I came them some chance of improvement with some focus and pressure on them. No knock for the Raiders, very gutsy win last week but they could very easily have been 0/2 into this and are without 3 key players, in particular their two halves, into an away game and with the possibility of being happy with themselves off two wins, they have to be some risk.

Hate the game, weakest tip of the round but gave the Knights at home some chance of the upset.


Panthers vs Broncos

+5.5 Panthers

Stats

Home ground advantage has been beneficial when these sides have met recently with the home team winning 7 of the last 8 matches. A loss for the Panthers will give them a 0-3 start for the 1st time since 2002, while Brisbane are looking to open their account with 3 straight wins for the 1st time since 2009. The Panthers have won the previous 3 clashes with the Broncos at Pepper Stadium and in 4 of the last 5 meetings they have scored the 1st try of the match. Both sides currently sit mid pack in points for, while Brisbane is ranked at the top of the table for points conceded, having conceded just 2 tries. In 5 of the previous 6 clashes played at Pepper Stadium, the TMP’s have topped 40. After 2 narrow losses, it’s an important game for the Panthers as they play 6 of their next 7 games following this 1 away from Pepper Stadium.

Preview

Had the first two rounds have been 70 minute affairs the Panthers would be 2 and 0 into a big blockbuster at home vs the Broncos. Instead they have significant heat and expectation on their tail at 0 and 2 into a top of the table opponent. The Panthers previous record against the broncos has been good, especially when at home, and Griffin also has an excellent long term record of wins over Bennett.

I like what the Broncos are doing, building nicely, but this looks a bit of a trick game for mine for them. Off 3 nice sound wins to open the season (including UK), never really threatened in each, and possibly a few things falling nicely for them with both the Eels and then Warriors copping key in game injury outs which no doubt had some end influence. Everyone singing their praises, this whole scenario can lead to some subtle complacency.

We know that we’ll see bounce back up sets through rounds 3, 4 and 5 as sides just like the Panthers who have had lots of positive off season media and focus start the season with poor results and the need to perform intensifies. Their attack worries me, again last week 16 was not enough to win and more importantly they didn’t trouble the scoreboard with a try after the 11th minute, but their defence has been pretty well structured and for the most part sound and that is what I expect they will again focus on here.

A Panthers upset would not surprise me, especially at home, but I can’t tip against the Broncos. It does look a solid physical defensive arm wrestle, something the Broncos are very good with when on the road with an amazing long term record now of 73% under total results when interstate away (off a long sample), I think that’s the right way to play the game.

Bet 1 unit Panthers-Broncos Under 39.5  $1.91 Centrebet


Titans v Tigers

-2.5 Titans

Stats

After recording 5 consecutive home wins, the away side has now won 5 of the last 6 clashes when these 2 sides have met. The Tigers are on a short 5 day turnaround and it’s their 1 st away game of the season, they have the worst record in the comp in matches classed as distant away or interstate, winning just 2 of 10 since 2013, with 7 of the 8 losses having a margin result of 13+, in 8 of the last 9 of them they have failed to cover the line and they have also lost 14 of their previous 18 matches played outside of Sydney. Ironically, the only 2 wins from the 10 matches referred to have been against the Titans. The Titans have covered the line in the last 3 meetings and have led at half time in 5 of the last 6, but only in 1 of those have they outscored the Tigers in the 2nd half. The Titans have scored the 1 st try of the match in 5 of the last 6, while the Tigers have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 5 of the last 6. In margin outcomes, 5 of the last 7 clashes have been decided by 13+. James Tedesco has already scored 5 tries in 2 games and in both weeks he has scored the last try of the match.

Preview

I love the Tigers positive attack and right now no team is playing right to left ball shift with the skill, speed and execution that they are. I have to have a question over the depth through those two games (Warriors and Eagles) as they are now certainly looking two weak opponents but the Tigers will also have grown significant confidence. The knock has to be their away form, and in particular their our of Sydney distant away form where they have won only 4 of their last 18 such games. very few teams crumble when boarding a plane like the Tigers do.

Titans get their chance, off a home win first up but decidedly weak opponent through then an ok road offering in Melbourne which is tough for most. It’s the early weeks of the season but they are playing with some spirit and their forwards have been better than I expected while Taylor at #7 is going to be a very good player.

Could be plenty of positive attacking footy on offer here, I have to risk the Tigers on the road as a tip but happy to stay well away from the game.


Warriors vs Storm

Even Warriors

Stats

More often than not, clashes between these sides have been tight and torrid affairs, with 8 of the last 11 and 11 of the last 13 meetings at Mt Smart Stadium having been decided by a margin of 1-12 points. Only once in the previous 13 clashes has the side leading at half time been run down and only once in the last 6 matches have Melbourne led the Warriors at half time. Melbourne has had the better of the Warriors in the back end of matches though, as only once in the previous 11 clashes have the Warriors outscored Melbourne in the 2nd half and only once in their past 11 matches have the Warriors outscored any opponent in the 2nd half. A Warriors try has been the first scoring play in 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Storm, while Melbourne has scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 5 of the last 6. The Warriors have now lost 10 in a row, with their last win coming way back in Round 18 of last year, it was against this weeks’ opponent in the Storm.

Preview


Dragons vs Rabbits

+5.5 Dragons

SCG

Stats

The Rabbitohs have won 7 of the last 8 clashes with the Dragons and they have also won their last 5 matches played at the SCG, while the Dragons have lost their last 3 at the iconic venue. Souths have scored both the 1st points of the match and the 1st points of the 2nd half in the last 6 clashes with the Dragons, while the 1st try of the match hasn’t been scored until after the 7th minute in the last 5 meetings. The Dragons conceded 30 points last week and they have lost 8 of their last 9 games following a match where they have conceded 30 points or more. The Rabbitohs have scored 90 points in their opening 2 matches and are yet to concede a 1st half point. The last 4 clashes have finished Unders in TMP’s with only 1 of them topping 32 points and only 1 of the last 7 matches played at the SCG have topped 32. With a wet track forecast and the lack of points in the Dragons, the Unders looks a likely result.

Preview

Couple of keys to this game, obviously what the Dragons dish up in terms of attitude and effort, and the fact that this is being played at the SCG. It’s common knowledge that McGreggor gave his players a massive spray in the dressing rooms after their flogging last week at Shark Park so I’m sure that has continued on this week and being only week 3 I’m happy to cut them some slack to at least aim up here. Clearly (and once again) their attack structures and execution options are terrible, and its this lack of line break and points scoring options that then compounds the pressure on them mentally and makes them also have to work so much extra physically – it never ceases to amaze me how little some of these coaches appear to understand what their attack should be about and more importantly how dumb and basic they make their approach.

The Rabbits have been impressive but right now it looks about as impressive as kissing your sister as the form behind then is oh so thin (Knights, Roosters). How they are doing things is sharp, there appears an enhanced preparedness to play with the ball while also smashing it forward, they have a good kicking game, smart halves with some skill and speed and Inglis. Looking forward to seeing them up against a real test, but they look to be ticking over nicely.

The foundation of what McGreggor has done over the last 18 months has been defence, if he gets their heads back in the game this week then I expect they’ll look to make this another tough physical game. Being at the SCG and some chance of rain, and the fact that 6 of their last 7 games here have all gone under with none of them topping 32 points, plus the longer H2H record between them both being similar and question marks over what attack / points the Dragons bring to the contest then the under total looks the obvious way to play this.

Bet 2 units Dragons-Rabbits Under 42.5  $1.90 Sportsbet  BB


Eagles vs Sharks

-1.0 Eagles

Stats

History shows that the Sea Eagles have won 12 of the last 13 clashes with the Sharks and 7 of the last 8 played at Brookvale Oval and start as the favourite here despite being comprehensively beaten in their opening 2 matches. A loss to the Sharks will be just the 2nd time in a dozen years that Manly have opened their season with 3 consecutive defeats. The Sea Eagles have covered the line in their last 4 meetings with the Sharks, while 3 of the last 4 match ups have finished Unders in TMP’s. The Sharks have a poor record in Monday Night Football, recording just 5 wins from their past 21 games, while the Sea Eagles record isn’t much better, with just 2 wins from their last 6 Monday fixtures at Brookvale. Since 2013, the home side has won more than 80% of matches in MNF during the opening 5 weeks. Jorge Taufua has scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in the Sea Eagles opening 2 games.

Preview

If this game was played anywhere else than Brookvale I would near declare the Sharks. If what I have been seeing of the Eagles through the first two weeks is right then they are as soft as putty through the middle and Ms Fulton and Barrett have completely farked up buying the right forwards as part of their off season buying spree and rebuild of this list. The Bulldogs trampled them down the middle third of the park in game one and almost giggled as they did so, and low and behold the Tigers then did something similar last week and I certainly wouldn’t rate the Tigers middle up there with the toughest in this comp. The Sharks bring this as a strength, they have size, muscle and a preparedness to play direct, roll forward for yardage and then tough in defence. They come through a very good form hit out against the Cowboys who certainly offer a benchmark for measure in the big physical forward pack stakes, and then worked over and held the Dragons big pack with some ease last week.

The Eagles get Stewart back but from what I here will also make a further 2 to 3 team changes as they search for their first win. With all the rain of the last few days and Brookvale not being a track that drains very well I’d suggest we will see a wet track and the Sharks heighten their intent of playing this as physical and through the middle for as much as possible. The line for this game has seen a 5 point turn around across the last 5 days, moving from an early +3.5 Sharks to the now -1.5. The early position we have, or taking the Sharks straight up is the way I would play this.

Bet 1 unit Sharks +1.5  $1.91 Centrebet



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 3

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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