NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 1

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 1

Mr.G provides our subscribers with his NRL tips game previews sports betting tips.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 1 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+2.5 Eels vs Broncos

-6.5 Eagles vs Bulldogs

-7.5 Raiders vs Panthers

+9.5 Tigers vs Warriors

+6.5 Cowboys vs Sharks

Even Roosters vs Rabbits

-2.5 Titans vs Knights

-8.5 Storm vs Dragons


NRL Round 1 Recommended Bet List

Bet 1 unit Eels-Broncos Under 40.5  $1.90 Centrebet

Bet 1 unit Raiders -3.5  $1.92 Crownbet  BB

Bet 1 unit Sharks +8.0  $1.95 Tabcorp

Being cautious to start the season, history tells me that across the last 6 seasons we have had opening 5 to 6 rounds where underdogs have won up to 60% of games outright, while trying to get a read on the form and more general form lines I will also be looking to limit exposure.

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Broncos, Eagles, Raiders, Warriors, Cowboys, Rabbits, Titans, Storm


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Eels vs Broncos

+2.5 Eels

Looks significant doubt over Foran which if out would move my handicap to -6.0, they are also without Watmough and have a list of key signings and team changes. Broncos are without Maranta and Reed and look well ready off an impressive hit out in the UK. The Eels record at home had been very good through recent seasons until last season with it again falling away, most recently losing 6 of last 7 at home. The Broncos are one of the more professional “road” teams in the comp, won 5 of the last 7 when away to finish the H and A season last yr and have won 3 of their last 4 at Parramatta.

Should Foran not play it looks to put a very different complexion across the game, and importantly the leadership and direction of the Eels play. They have added some quality in key areas of their game, but I’d be surprised if Coach Arthur plays things any differently than he has in the past at that is that he loves a big physical forward pack that likes to belt its way through and control the middle of the park while also working over their opponent. In watching key sections of the Eels last trial against the Panthers things looked very much the same. If done well they are looking to create some physical advantage while providing their halves with some room to play.

The Broncos looked very much like the Broncos in their UK hit out, very professional, well drilled, lots of discipline, ball control and then field position management, all the quality stuff we saw last year. The Broncos dropped their bundle off their UK game in opening the season last year being flogged first up at home by the then defending Premiers the Rabbits, I’m sure Bennett will be all over this and looking for something far more of his liking here (and given his press conference today I’m sure he has been all over his players through recent days ensuring he is knocking any hint of complacency out of them).

This looks like a nice tough arm wrestle for a long way, and I’m expecting both sides up for the occasion. Arthur is noted for being able to motivate and get his charges up and he will have had this game set for some weeks, and they did jump the Eagles easily (42-12) first up at home last year. Equally I’m expecting the Broncos to be slipping back into the groove. Tipping the Broncos might outlast their opponent with discipline and control late in the event, they also have an excellent long term record at turning these away games into tight / Under affairs. Should Foran not play that should weaken further the Eels attack / points.

Bet 1 unit Eels-Broncos Under 40.5 $1.90 Centrebet


Eagles vs Bulldogs

-6.5 Eagles

I have the Eagles rated on potential so some caution till we see how this unfolds. They have made massive changes across their list, most of them quality and added a new coach in Barrett, and after weeks of work on paper I’m happy enough with where I have them pegged to start the season, but playing combinations (and results) are something different. My mail form some close to the players and training park at Manly have been nothing but lavish in their praise of Barrett’s work to date, he’s calm, sharp, well organised and knows what he’s doing, one very experienced International who has played under some very very good coaches has stated privately to date Barrett is the best he’s played under, some rap. A ball hasn’t been kicked in anger yet, but it’s a happy camp that form all accounts from opinions I respect is very happy and well prepared to start the season.

But lots of questions. Have the size and depth in the middle, combinations and penetration with their backrowers, how does Walker aim up at 6? Stewart is in some doubt, but I have not heard anything firm yet. My expectation is that they are going to want to play up tempo with their game speed, be prepared to move the ball, and play to their speed and skill (7, 6 and 1) and edges.

I have numerous questions on the Bulldogs to, and much that I want to see. B Morris and Klemmer key outs. I though the Mybe and Reynolds combination was the weakest (and poor) of those that they played with through the closing months of last year, and Hodkinson a significant out given his quality long kicking game, abilities to direct play and kick goals. But Hasler can coach, and his record speaks for itself, form all accounts he has trimmed down a number of his big forwards and his squad is as fit as he has had them.

A game full of question marks, we will learn a lot here. Brookvale is a huge advantage for the Eagles. I’m with them but found both sides and the game hard to mark at this stage with any confidence.


Raiders vs Panthers

-7.5 Raiders

Raiders have purchased well through the off season have look to have the potential to now challenge for a top 8 spot, there two major purchases will be on show here in Sezer and Whitehead. Panthers have a major out in Moylan. Interesting home and away records for the last year for both sides, Raiders winning just 3/12 at home while Panthers only won just the 2 away games.

It’s the first game of the season and so we’ll expect some rusty play but I’m expecting the Raiders to be a) picking up where they were developing to last season with strong ball movement and attacking skill, and b) be further improved with the addition of Sezer and Whitehead and experience into their kids. Stuart can be good at getting his players up for a game, but balance is the key as he can also be prone to heaping lots of pressure and expectation. But the mix looks right in many key combinations, time will tell.

I want to see the Panthers, and what unfolds here and into these next few weeks. I’m not necessarily Griffin’s biggest fan, Moylan is huge out, questions over what they do and or will work in the halves, and how some of their kids come up. Griffin’s attack plans and patterns have also been a significant issue for me in the past, and while only a nothing trial they did look bloody pedestrian against the Eels a few weeks back.

It’s first game, but the Raiders don’t have to change much, add some polish with Sezer, same coach and approach, pick up where they were and kick on. Panthers new coach, some new combinations and missing their key superstar. Going with the Raiders to start the season well.

Bet 1 unit Raiders -3.5 $1.92 Crownbet


Tigers vs Warriors

+9.5 Tigers

Gee I wish Farah and Brooks were playing here first up as I think the Tigers at full strength and at home would have beaten the Warriors, but unfortunately they are key outs. I have little confident that McFadden knows what he is doing given the results of the last 6 months, let alone the team list he has put up here, plus as well noted in the media through recent days their first round efforts each season are terrible as is their away record in Sydney. The Tigers also look somewhat unknown with a number of new faces and combinations, plus the obvious issue of experience and capability at #9.

It’s a watch game. The Warriors could put moments of brilliance on and win by 30. They could also fold quickly and lose by 6, I wouldn’t trust them to help me cross the road.


Cowboys vs Sharks

-6.5 Cowboys

The Cowboys did it all last yr, I love watching them play and the positive attacking approach they play, so I have no knock on them but I do have significant question marks on this game and maybe the real huger year long (but that will unfold in due course). It took 10 yrs to get the monkey off their back and they duly celebrated for 3 months all over Nth Qld, they then come into this game first up at home with a full house, lots of local media hype and backslappers into a willing opponent. They also have a questionable record as slow starters most seasons, and first game at home last yr were soundly touched up by the Knights who went on to win the wooden spoon.. They have to be some risk here.

The Sharks have bought well, Maloney a huge buy, classy link at #6, quality kicking game, and kicks goals. They have no outs, and my mail is have had an excellent 10 day prep setting this game first up as a major focus including an out of town team camp 7 days ago. They were touched up by the Cows in the finals but did win both games earlier in the season and do have a good overall record in Townsville and H2H.

I marked this game much shorter than the markets earlier this week, and now the rain has come with up to 30 mms of rain forecast for Saturday on top of rain last night.

It’s round 1 and I am happy to stick with the Sharks at the + line as a formal bet, but personally I will also be having an interest through the Sharks H2H at the $3.25 that’s around at present.

Bet 1 unit Sharks +8.0 $1.95 Tabcorp


Roosters vs Rabbits

Even

Sadly a game knocked around with key outs, Waerea-Hargreaves, Cordner and Pearce missing for the Roosters while Keary, Grevsmuhl and Tom and George Burgess are all key outs for the Rabbits. Sam Burgess in clearly a key return for the red and green but on the back of this both sides are adjusting to key off season changes, so a game that looks tricky to read.

The Roosters look to have some advantage in the middle but have in experience but promise across their inside 4 backs, while the Rabbits look a bit patched up with noted bench players now filling key forward roles.

Another tricky game that could go in any direction. The Roosters have a healthy long term record in this early season clash but with so many key personal changes to both sides and it being a round 1 match up its impossible to get any sort of read to forecast. Lets just watch and see what we might learn.


Titans vs Knights

-2.5 Titans

Well if we already had a few games that looked tricky to read then this is like a 5,000 piece jigsaw puzzle that has just been tipped on the floor… Both sides have key outs, and then have rookies scattered everywhere across their list, plus new combinations in lots of key places.

For all of their poor form and travel record through recent seasons the Knights actually have a good record both against the Titans winning 4 of the last 5 H2H and at the ground winning 4 of the last 5 here. I’m a rap on Brown as a coach and while it’s going to probably take a couple of seasons for him to re build his list he is very astute with his game plans and has his teams very well prepared, so I will be watching with interest their approach. Henry is equally a good coach working with depleted quality but as we saw last yr he also made a habit of having his weak team aim up.

I went with the Titans at home with little confidence, I just want to sit down and watch with interest what’s on offer.


Storm vs Dragons

-8.5 Storm

A good game and match up to finish the round with. The Storm have an outstanding record early in the season, Bellamy is a master of a tough off season and in preparing his team through the final 4 weeks into their first few games with highly drilled sessions such that they could walk through their patterns of play in their sleep. They have the huge added benefit here of now having been able to provide Smith, Cronk and Stater with full off seasons preps without any rep commitments and this should have a massive impact on their early season form. Add to this their undeniable record at home and the fact that they have beaten the Dragons at their last 13 contests in Melbourne then they do look very hard to beat here.

The Dragons have some key changes, notably Packer up front and Mann and Lafai in their backs, but will be missing one of their best forwards in Frizell. Coach McGreggor showed this time last yr that with the benefit of a full off season he was able to coach a touch well structured plan in defence which went on to shut down many opponents through the opening rounds and win them games, and so I’m sure we are likely to see something similar again this season.

This game looks a lot like Thursday’s opening game, two willing teams well prepared likely to slug this out right through the 80 minutes, with the likely difference being the Storm’s home advantage and noted game control and discipline. To beat the Storm you need to get them out of their rhythm, play some up tempo footy and turn any advantage into points such that then have to chase and play outside their norm, but all of that is easier said than done as they have such quality game management led by Smith and Cronk.

Good contest, I think the markets have the handicap about right, happy to watch how it unfolds.



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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 1

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays for this individual round are listed here. Each NRL Preview and Sports Betting Tips message thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays). All subscribers can also receive all recommended bets via sms message.

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