NRL 2019 | State Of Origin Game 2 Preview | Reading The Play
NRL 2019 | State Of Origin Game 2 Preview
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QLD v NSW
Optus Stadium, Perth
Sunday June 22nd
1. Kalyn Ponga 2. Corey Oates 3. Michael Morgan 4. Will Chambers 5. Dane Gagai 6. Cameron Munster 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c) 8. Dylan Napa 9. Ben Hunt 10. Josh Papalii 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Matt Gillett 13. Josh McGuire.
Interchange: 14. Moses Mbye 15. Jarrod Wallace 16. Tim Glasby 17. David Fifita
1. James Tedesco 2. Blake Ferguson 3. Tom Trbojevic 4. Jack Wighton 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. James Maloney 7. Nathan Cleary 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Damien Cook 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Boyd Cordner (c) 12. Tyson Frizell 13. Jake Trbojevic.
Interchange: 14. Dale Finucane 15. Tariq Sims 16. Cameron Murray 17. Wade Graham
2019 NRL - What a start to the season!
Profit +19.71 units
32 Winners 54 Bets – 59.3%
12 Best Bets Winners form 15 selections
21% Profit On Turnover
Full results here > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2019
Game 2 Preview
QLD win game 1 (in Brisbane) 18-14
Team changes following game 1.
Off a credible come from behind win QLD have only two changes force by injury, with Arrow and Ofahengaue out, Nappa will now start and Wallace joins the bench.
NSW and Fittler have reacted with 7 changes, with Klemmer, Walker, Mitchell, Haas, Morris, Cotric and Crichton gone replaced by Maloney, Tom Trbojevic, Wighton, Ferguson, Tariq Sims, Graham, Saifiti and Finucane.
There’s no doubt that NSW have been knocked around this series with key injuries but it’s interesting that Fittler prior to last year’s series had preached a fresh start, form players, stability and culture, yet now when under the pump and down 0-1 in the series he’s made multiple changes, some for mine somewhat strange if not questionable.
A few things tactically stood out for mine in game 1, and now raise questions into game 2. QLD went with 3 big men on their bench and then a game plan to play big through the middle, keep their rotations simple (just rotating the big guys in the middle third) and so playing to their preferred strength of stable left and right edges (outside 4 players on both sides), and the flexibility of Cherry-Evans, Munster and Ponga to play to where they saw opportunity.
NSW wanted to play off the nippy speed and skill of Cook and Tedesco in particular in and around the middle, but they’d have wanted much much more from their left edge in Walker and Mitchell. What was also surprising then was the use of and rotation of their bench, as each change either left them short in the middle and or broke up a combination on their edges. It might have all looked great in theory pre game, but it left NSW well short when it mattered in to and through the 2nd 40 minutes.
Lastly, while QLD won the game, it was very obvious they also won half time. NSW went into the break leading 8-0 (on the face of it somewhat lucky as QLD had at least three decent line break opportunities that they didn’t convert, while NSW also two near misses). What then stood out following the break was the lift and intent from QLD, they did so as one, they got very physical, very committed and started to dominate the game. The end result was they won the second half 18-6 with a classic QLD come from behind Origin win.
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So we now head to game 2 on a neutral ground in Perth, with a weather forecast suggesting a wet track. Fittler has gone all out with changes, but again looks to go with just two big men and an intent to rotate players on both edges and into and around the middle. He now has only 2 front rowers, 3 left edge back rowers and 3 fullbacks across his 17, it seems a strange selection mix. It’s always easier when winning and QLD have gone with stability and the same obvious plan, with 3 big boys on the bench and the token extra in Mybe who has the flexibility to play multiple positions if required.
NSW now have Maloney at #6 and left edge, and Wighton to play outside him, normally a strong defender he’ll be there to tighten things up. Tom Trbojevic moves to the right edge, he’s a naturally gifted player on the ball, especially from broken play and dummy half. Ferguson returns to the right edge on the wing, he’s here for his return and short carries where he can get big meters – but he can also be very prone to multiple basic errors something NSW won’t want. Finucane is a talent, and should really have played many more Origin’s before now but how does he now fit in here? Graham is another class player, but he is a natural left edge ball player, does that then mean Cordner (captain) plays big minutes in the middle or bench, and or do NSW look to set up left edge plays to use his talent, or not?
The great Jack Gibson stood by and made the phrase “Keep It Simple Stupid” somewhat famous in his time, his reference that there was no need to over complicate this game. Keep it simple, then do it well. Walters went with a simple plan into game 1, and was then all about team, and then seemed to be able to pull all that together at half time and turn it into what I though was a decisive result. He wants his big men to work hard through the middle, and with a little to a lot of room then allow his players who can make something happen do so, Cherry-Evans, Munster, Ponga from the back and Morgan on the left.
NSW clearly want to play to a plan with smaller but more mobile players with some toe and footwork in and around the middle third (Cook, Tedesco, Murray, Jake Trbojevic and their halves). But it has to be a concern if they can match and or hold the middle, how then such a plan works on a likely wet track and if the Fittler bench and rotation plan works to affect.
I expect Maloney (left edge) will see a lot of traffic, he is prone to many defensive misses and this will also likely see those around him work more in assisting him and then leaving space for QLD to exploit. Both Munster and Cherry-Evans played to their right with some smarts in game 1, two long out balls from Cherry-Evans to Chambers were just class and put him in space for all but tries. I think QLD hold some advantage in attack in their halves with the flexibility that they are prepared to play with, both roving to either side or linking on wider open edges, and both players Munster in particular have been in excellent recent form.
As of Sunday morning, Perth has now had 60m rain in the last 24 hrs, with a forecast of scattered thunderstorms and further rain (10mm to 20mm) during the day, most of it late afternoon so clearly we have a dam to wet track and game. Kicking game, discipline and handling errors become the crucial, QLD’s straight forward approach and the kicking smarts of their two halves certainly look the advantage.
I’m with QLD, they now bring to game 2 stability, a simple plan and they’d have to be building in confidence off their game 1 result and come from behind second half win. It looks a game pattern where big men and “workers” in the middle will be key, and I think behind that they look to have an advantage in the halves with their kicking game and their hands on the footy. It’s Origin, NSW can certainly win but they are going to have to match the physical game in the middle (with a small man bench) and then take risks with the ball in wet conditions to do so.
Recommended betting plays if you are looking for an interest:
1st Try Scorer: Chambers $21
Any Time Try Scorer: Chambers $4.40
Man Of The Match: Munster $7.50 and Cherry-Evans $11.00
The “I just want to have one bet” best play: Any Time Try Scorer: Chambers $4.40
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