NRL 2019 | State Of Origin Game 3 Preview | Reading The Play
NRL 2019 | State Of Origin Game 3 Preview
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NSW v QLD
Homebush Stadium, Sydney
Wednesday July 10th
1. James Tedesco 2. Blake Ferguson 3. Tom Trbojevic 4. Jack Wighton 5. Josh Addo-Carr 6. James Maloney 20. Mitchell Pearce 8. Daniel Saifiti 9. Damien Cook 10. Paul Vaughan 11. Boyd Cordner (c) 12. Tyson Frizell 13. Jake Trbojevic.
Interchange: 14. Dale Finucane 19. David Klemmer 16. Cameron Murray 17. Wade Graham.
1. Cameron Munster 2. Corey Oates 3. Michael Morgan 4. Will Chambers 5. Dane Gagai 6. Corey Norman 7. Daly Cherry-Evans (c) 8. Joe Ofahengaue 9. Ben Hunt 10. Josh Papalii 11. Felise Kaufusi 12. Matt Gillett 13. Josh McGuire.
Interchange: 14. Moses Mbye 15. Christian Welch 16. Tim Glasby 17. David Fifita.
2019 NRL - What a season!
Profit +24.98 units
That’s $2,498 Profit this season to date for $100 unit bettors!
36 Winners 61 Bets – 59%
14 Best Bets Winners form 18 selections – 77.7%
Full results here > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2019
Game 3 Preview
QLD win game 1 (in Brisbane) 18-14
NSW win game 2 (in Perth) 38-6
Team changes following game 3.
NSW remain all but the same, Tariq Sims is out due to suspension and they get the return of David Klemmer. Nathan Clearly replaced just after half time remains injured and Pearce now takes his place.
QLD without Ponga to injury (Norman comes in), still without Arrow and now replace Napa and Wallace with Ofahengaue and Welch.
Key Facts and Stats
NSW have won 6 of the last 10 at Homebush
Last 6 games at the ground all decided by six points or less
Last 10 games at Homebush have all resulted in winning margins of 1-12
Last 9 games at Homebush neither team has scored more than 20 pts
Last 10 games at Homebush have not seen a total points score breach 34 pts
It is 14 yrs since NSW have won a decider – 2005
NSW have not won a decider in Sydney since 2004 (15 years)
QLD have won the last 7 deciders
There have been 19 deciders, QLD have won 13 NSW 4
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Game 2 produced some interesting highs and lows. NSW lifted, the effort and attacking focus that’s been promised across the last 18 months came together, suited it would seem with a low cut fast hard Perth track even though damp with showers and rain. They played with an obvious intent to run the ball and attack at every opportunity and against an opponent who folded quickly the end result was pretty clear very early on, a dominate 18-6 half time lead blowing out to a 38-6 flogging.
It’s been an interesting tail through both games into this decider. NSW were off in game 1, QLD rolled their sleeves up at half time and went on to a clear win although the scoreboard suggested only a 4 point margin. into game 2 and NSW were very clearly “up” from the opening minutes while QLD were as dead as a door-nail and the longer it unfolded the wider it looked as to who had intent and who had zero, and the final scoreboard possibly flattered QLD as it could well have been a much bigger margin (as if 32 points wasn’t already enough).
NSW have since had the luxury of retaining all but the same side, it not stronger for the return of Klemmer and the inclusion of Pearce in the halves. As long as NSW get their kicking game and kick options right I think they have possibly their strongest team this series on form. Ponga was very poor in game 2 but there is no doubting his class and he is a major out at the back, they have rightly replaced the two under performing forwards but still go with Mybe on the bench who does little to spark a game as opposed to someone like Brimson with speed and skill that could at least offer some (much needed) creative x factor.
The venue and the fact that we have a decider will play a big part in the final result. Homebush will not be hard and fast like Perth was, mid winter dam Sydney conditions will see a ground soft and slightly shifting and far less open or width play, and the ground record speaks for itself, the last 10 games here have not breached 34 points and the last 10 games have all been decided with margins 1-12. This should suit QLD more and bring them closer into the game, and I expect lessen some of the potent attack options that we saw from NSW in Perth.
Also, who handles the “decider” pressure best? QLD have won the last 7 deciders, certainly helped I’m sure through most of that period with some of the best Origin has ever seen, the likes of Smith, Cronk and Thurston not only great players but also wonderful game and result managers, they are not now blessed with anywhere near those strengths. But NSW will have a monkey of sorts on their back as well, it’s 14 years since they’ve won a decider and they have a few players who’ll feel some of that weight as the evening unfolds should it be close.
I like the two changes QLD have made to their forward line up, and they’ll need to be much like game 1 here in the middle, lots of hard work and real defensive focus, turn this into a real physical arm wrestle, then take what opportunities come their way for points. NSW have the attack and skill advantage, Cook and Tedesco through the middle can open things up, much like Tedesco Tom Trbojevic can make things happen especially under the high ball, and they now have two running halves who I also think offer an edge. Maloney was very good in game 2, he’ll be all over and around the ball in game conditions like this and I think is a great bet for anytime try scorer.
In the first 4 games under Fittler NSW looked very possible of delivering what they then finally did in the most recent result – an intent to play to their key strengths of speed, skill and attack. On paper, at their best (for each) I think NSW are a 2 to 3 try better team, and on the right day such as Perth when putting their foot down of a less than interested opponent capable of a wide margin. But Origin can be a different beast and QLD more often than not lift in this arena and make Origin what it is now all these years later. Then let’s factor in the Homebush effect. I think NSW win, but I’d be very surprised if at this ground with the atmosphere and pressure of a decider against an opponent embarrassed by their last offering that they do so by a comfortable margin. NSW to win, but a 1-12 margin.
Recommended betting plays if you are looking for an interest:
NSW 1-12 $2.70
Any Time Try Scorer: Maloney $4.50
Man Of The Match: Maloney $7.00 or Pearce $8.00
The “I just want to have one bet” best play: Any Time Try Scorer: Maloney $4.50
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Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.
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