NRL 2014 – Australia v New Zealand – Free Preview

NRL 2014 – Australia v New Zealand – Free Preview

NRL 2014 – Australia v New Zealand – Free Preview

MrG’s recommended weekly game by game previews and any recommended betting plays are listed below. Each NRL Weekly Preview thread will normally open on a Thursday and list any early game ratings and betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round (Fridays).

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Australia v New Zealand

Game Markets

Australia opened as pronounced favs at $1.15 last Monday and have since shortened significantly into $1.08 H2H. The Line opened at -19.5 / -20.5 (which is what our recommended bet to subscribers was last Monday) and has since been heavily supported out to -22.5 / -24.5.

Recommended Bet

Bet 4 units Australia -19.5 $1.91 Centrebet

-22.5 is currently still available (Friday am) but I don’t expect this to last, -24.5 the likely market position by game time.

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).

Game Preview
Australia v New Zealand

SFS: 7.45pm Friday

H2H Tip: Australia

Clearly Australia look a stand out, and for many a good reason. Australia will have the initial advantage of a home / Sydney based game and have dominated this early season Test match for a number of years now winning 12 months ago 32-12 and then touching the Kiwis up in the WC final 32-2. Worst still this New Zealand team is not a shadow of the sides that played those last two tests.

Sheens has dropped a couple of players from the winning World Cup team just to keep everyone on their toes that he wants performance on the back of 15 straight wins. If only Kearney could manage any sort of semblance of team stability with a combination of strange or political selections and key injuries leaving a side missing experience, quality and depth. Sonny Bill Williams, Luke, Waerea-Hargreaves, Foran, Matulino, Kenny-Dowall and Taumalolo to name a few are all missing. Worst still they have lost quality size and grunt up front plus their outstanding #9 and #6 which critically weakens their spine. On the back of this Kearney has called up 6 debutantes to form a list that lacks class, experience and points. I can’t believe that with the injury loss of Luke and Foran’s direction that Kearney could then go without the size and experience of some of the others mentioned or decided to play with makeshift or rookie #9’s (as a start), he has certainly left himself out on a limb.

The Australian team reeks class and points, the only thing that would stop a blow out here would be complacency. Sheens has already shown an ability to keep this team motivated and on the ball, they racked up a 32-12 win in this same game 12 mths ago and aimed up when it mattered in the World Cup and are now on the verge of equaling the all time record winning streak of 16 consecutive tests.

While the Kiwi’s certainly deserving potting for their strange team selections and team development across the last 18 months (maybe the players aint the real problem…) we should also acknowledge the strength and class of this Australian side, in particular the quality and skill across the back 7.

Australia look good things and if they reproduce anything like their last cup outing and or of what they are capable they should be winning this quite comfortably. If they start to wind up as the game unfolds as I expect then a 4 try margin should be pretty straight forward, it could also get very ugly.

Bet 4 units Australia -19.5 $1.91 Centrebet

 

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