Easter Monday NRL Previews

Easter Monday NRL Previews

Monday NRL Previews

MrG’s recommended weekly betting plays for the 2013 NRL Season commence from Round 4 onwards, and are listed under “Bet List” in each weekly NRL Preview thread.

A new NRL Weekly Preview thread will open each Wednesday morning and list any early betting plays. It will be updated each day and then detailed game by game Previews, Ratings and final Bet List will be published online by 8am on the morning of the first game of the round.

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Individual Game Tips –  17/24  71%

Eagles, Bulldogs, Storm, Sharks, Titans, Knights, Cowboys, Roosters

Monday Game Previews
Warriors v Cowboys
Warriors Cowboys
RTP Rating -1
H2H Opened $2.95 $1.40
Line Opened -7.5
Head to Head Won 4 of last 10
At Ground Won 5 of last 10 Lost 7 of last 10
Home/Away 50% 40%

Auckland: 4.00pm Monday

I’d caution that this might not look as straight forward as first glance and that the Cowboys have some work to do to be winning here. I have little time for the Warriors at present but they do now have the advantage of their first game at home and the likely return of Friend at 9 (experience, work rate and direction). It’s an away leg that the Cowboys have traditionally really struggled with (only winning 3 of their last 10) and will face up here having clocked up a lot of travel and little preparation with back to back away legs (Newcastle then Auckland). Also, as bad as the Warriors are travelling right now little separates the defensive stats of both sides with them each now conceding near 28 points a game after the first 3 rounds, the Cowboys conceding 66 across their last two weeks. I’m not sure if the Cowboys have been reading their own press and got too far ahead of themselves through recent weeks but right now they have a similar look to the Tigers of last year, on paper one of the likely contenders who then flopped through the opening months while we all kept waiting (and expecting) a form turn around. I’m sure Coach Henry has put a decent rocket up them this week but this is not an easy assignment for them. The Warriors have looked a basket case. One really wonders what they have been doing through the last few months. Their defensive attitude and commitment is poor. They are not interested in the key small plays that can make a huge different to the momentum of a game. Johnson is clearly playing injured and I’m not sure that Leuluai is 6 at this level. I don’t like the game, both sides are searching for improvement, the Cowboys should be a 20 point better side on what we expect but until they stamp some consistent play again they carry significant risk.

Tip: Cowboys 

Last Word: As we know, the Cowboys have the makings of a top 4 contender, they need to get their heads right and aim up here.

Betting Interest: I think the 8 point line is tricky, I want to see the Cowboys put up before playing with them again.

Roosters v Eels
Roosters Eels
RTP Rating -7
H2H Opened $1.40 $2.75
Line Opened -6.5
Head to Head Lost 6 of last 10
At Ground Lost 6 of last 10 Won 5 of last 10
Home/Away 40% 20%

SFS: 7.00pm Monday

Another interesting contest. The opening rounds each season will throw up numerous highs and lows as teams find form, combinations and manage the change of new coaches, key players and or tactics – and or a rebound from a poor start or major loss (like the Raiders and Knights). The Roosters and Eels are another two on a new path this season with new coaches, the Roosters off a poor first up effort have then won two games and made improvement each week. The Eels started well with a home win and close loss to the Bulldogs then capitulated last week to the Tigers. So we have some team form and general form lines still sorting itself out. The Roosters have struggled to score points but have defended well (averages attack 12 defence 14), the Eels a mixed result (attack 25 defence 21) yet the markets see a clear advantage to the Roosters and a potential 8 to 10 point margin. Maloney and SBW have provided some class and balance to what the Roosters are now doing, they are also playing with a big middle (Waera-Hargreaves, Moa and Nuuausala) but their basic error and ill discipline is still a major issue and penalising much of their progress. I though the Eels were very luck to finish with only 30 points against them last week. They were there to be thrashed such was their basic error and poor attitude, but they have the advantage here of an 11 day turn around and an extended period for Stuart to freshen them up and attempt to get them back on track. They remain on the road for the third week in a row (and carry a shocking away record) but are lucky to some degree that all three games have been Sydney based road legs. I’ve been with the Roosters through their last two wins, and expect them to win here but I’d not be comfortable playing with a wide line with a side that is still struggling to score points and get their discipline right – let alone have been able to post 8 to 10 plus points winning margins (which they are yet to do). 

Tip: Roosters 

Last Word: At home the Roosters look slowly on the improve and can win here. I do expect the Eels to be better than last week. 

Betting Interest: Happy to leave alone, let’s see the Roosters clock up some points and margin before playing with an 8 point line.

2013 NRL Season Preview – if you haven’t seen the detailed (19 pages) season preview it’s available here

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