NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting | Round 25

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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting Round 25

 

MrG provides NRL Previews Sports Betting content each week for our Reading The Play NRL subscribers.


2016 – Profit +32.9 units | 73 winners / 125 bets | Strike Rate 58.4%

NRL 2016 Results File > RTP_NRL_Results_POT_2016


Rd 25 2016 Game Handicaps

MrG’s Ratings

+2.5 Bulldogs vs Cowboys

-8.5 Storm vs Broncos

+8.5 Eagles vs Raiders

0.0 Titans vs Panthers

-5.5 Sharks vs Roosters

-9.5 Warriors vs Tigers

-14.5 Knights vs Rabbits

-7.5 Eels vs Dragons

 


NRL Round 25 Recommended Bet List

 

Bet 2 units Storm -5.5 $1.91 William Hill / -6.0 Topsport

Bet 3 units Raiders -6.5 now available $1.94 Crownbet BB

Bet 2 units Rabbits -12.0 $1.93 Pinnacle

Bet 2 units Eels -4.5 $1.91 William Hill

Round 26

Bet 3 units Broncos -10.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet

Bet 3 units Cowboys -9.5 $1.90 Sportsbet / CrownBet

Bet 3 units Panthers -8.5 $1.90 CrownBet / William Hill BB

 

Notes: With 9 teams still playing for final top 8 spots including the importance of either top 4 (double chance) or a home semi final we have key games where we know teams are playing to win. I see three games where those in form and playing at home should have a decided form advantage. Broncos certainly put their hand up last week with an impressive offering, they have the advantage of a 7 day turn around into an opponent who rolled over poorly in the 2nd this week and now face a short 5 day turn around into an interstate away game. The Cowboys also have an additional 2 day prep advantage this week and as we know hold a commanding advantage at home, the Titans have been very good but look busted, tired, have to travel and up against it. The Panthers are rolling along nicely, they too return home and should have too much skill and ball movement for an Eagles side busted with injury, likely to have further player outs and season’s end can’t come quick enough.

 

Premiership (21st July)

Bet 2 units Cowboys to win Premiership $5.00 Tabsportsbet

 

BB – Indicates Best Bet

Market Odds Comparison – a quick link to assist with the available odds across many possible providers – nrl-odds-comparisons

Staking: The recommended units bet is indicated next to each bet in the above bet list. The base bet is 1 to 5 units (and is also a reflection of confidence).


Individual Game Tips

Cowboys, Storm, Raiders, Titans, Sharks, Warriors, Rabbits, Eels


Game Previews

Note: FYI, with the introduction of Thursday night games (we will have 18 this season) it is now near impossible with the work and list of things that I chose to do to have all game previews written and finished until late in each week, as we also have a Monday night game and final team lists not announced until a Tuesday afternoon. So that you are aware I re rate all teams after each round based on current performance, then re rate based on team lists, then look to handicap each coming game then consider a range of form and match up factors towards any potential bets before writing each individual game preview last. I will then be attempting to write previews for any game that a recommended bet has been made for first so that any key factors and reasoning is then known in advance.

Key Contest Stats

Kind thanks to Mark Hull a good friend and keen NRL follower who complies a weekly list of key stats and insights for each game. You can also follow Mark on Twitter here @FootyAssist

 

Bulldogs vs Cowboys

+2.5 Bulldogs

 

Stats

It’s back to Belmore to kick off Round 25 in a Top 5 clash when the Bulldogs host the reigning Premiers to make it consecutive games for the Dogs against last year’s Grand Finalists. The Bulldogs suffered their biggest loss of the season when they met the Cowboys 5 weeks ago, which also equaled their highest ever losing margin to North Queensland. Canterbury has now lost 4 of their last 5 against their Top 8 counterparts and will start as a home underdog for the 1st time since Round 10 last year. They have won 6 of their last 7 at home but have been beaten in their last 2 matches at Belmore Oval. The Bulldogs remain in 4th spot with the 7th ranked attack and the 4th rated defence, giving them an 84 point differential that ranks 6th.Canterbury are 7-15 ATS and have failed to cover in their last 7 straight, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 6 against a Top 8 opponent and they have also covered in only 1 of their last 6 when getting a start at home. They are 12-10 Under in TMP’s, with their last 5 matches finishing that way, while 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Cowboys have failed to reach 40. The Bulldogs have won 11 of 15 this season with a half time lead, while they have lost 4 of 5 when trailing at the break. Brett Morris has scored 10 tries in his 8 games for the Dogs this season and he has been the Dogs 1st try scorer in their last 2 matches. The Cowboys returned to the winners circle last week to end a 3 game losing run and will be looking to make it back to back wins for the 1st time since Round 17. They have now won 4 of the last 5 clashes with the Bulldogs but they will need to improve on their recent away form, where they have lost 6 of their last 7 and they haven’t recorded a win in Sydney since Round 9. North Queensland is in 5th spot and will leap frog the Bulldogs to go back into the Top 4 with a win, they rank 3rd in attack, while their defence and differential both rank 2nd . The Cowboys are split evenly ATS, producing an 11-11 result and have covered in only 1 of their last 7 on the road. In TMP’s they are 14-8 Under, with their last 7 straight finishing that way, while their last 6 against the Top 8 have also finished Unders. The Cowboys have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in 5 of the last 6 meetings with the Dogs, who have conceded the 1st try of the 2nd half in their last 6 straight. Antonio Winterstein scored a hat trick in the last meeting with the Bulldogs and was both the 1st and last try scorer of the match. The team to score the 1st try of the match has won 8 of the last 10 clashes, while the half time leader has gone on to win 6 of the last 7 meetings. In 8 of the previous 10 match ups, the winning margin has been by 1-12 points

Preview

Played at Belmore

The heavy wet weather in to Sydney in the days prior will favour the Bulldogs in bringing this much closer. I gave them some chance last week and again the just didn’t measure up under pressure, some of their offering and handling pathetic including turning over the ball 13 times alone in teh 2nd half, they were dam luck they were not flogged by 30. Off such form its not hard to work out why they have only won just 1 of their last 5 against Top 8 sides, and if we look at their last 5 weeks they came off a flogging to the Cowboys up north then wins over the Dragons, Knights, Eagles (should have lost) and the Broncos – the Dragons, Knights, Eagles does not now ready well. They also lose Kasanio, a big body in wet conditions.

Cowboys have won the last three including the touch up of 36-0 over the Bulldogs just 5 weeks ago, but they have only won 2 of their last 6 and both of those wins were at home. As expected they were much better last week, in particular seeing the much stronger individual form of Morgan but the Warriors away is also not strong form.

Bulldogs have failed to cover their last seven and have gone under in their last five while the Cowboys have covered just 3 of their last 9, hardly anything for us to get our teeth into, and then a likely very heavy track. being the first game of the round the bookies opened their totals marks late (mid today) and already had it positioned very safely at under 36. With the Cowboys, had it been a dry track I would have wanted to bet, but not now.


Storm vs Broncos

-8.5 Storm

 

Stats

The 2nd match of the Round featuring 2 Top 8 combatants sees ladder leaders the Storm, hosting the 6th placed Broncos in Friday Night Football. The Storm has completely dominated the Broncos since 2007, winning 17 of the 20 clashes, while they have won 11 of the previous 13 meetings in Melbourne. The Storm return home after back to back road legs to complete their travel for the regular season and a win over the Broncos will see them wrap up the Minor Premiership. Melbourne has won 14 of their last 16 and has suffered just the 1 defeat at AAMI Park in 2016, which was a 6 point loss to the Bulldogs way back in Round 6. They remain at the top of the ladder for the 3rd consecutive week and haven’t sat lower than 2nd since Round 11. Their defence and differential are the best in the competition, while they rank 4th in attack. The Storm is split evenly ATS, producing an 11-11 result and have covered in 10 of their last 15. They have a 5-5 cover record at home, with a 10-14 home record since 2014 when laying 6 points or more, while they have covered in their last 6 straight against Brisbane. In TMP’s they are 16-6 Under, with 5 of their last 6 totaling 36 or less, while 5 of the last 6 clashes with the Broncos have totaled 38 or less. A Melbourne try has been the 1 st scoring play in 11 of the previous 13 clashes with the Broncos. Suliasa Vunivalu bagged a hat trick in his last match against the Broncos and with his 4 tries last week, he is now the NRL’s leading try scorer with 21. Brisbane will be looking for 4 straight wins for the 1st time since April and if they can do so they will keep their slim chances of a Top 4 finish alive but more than likely secure a home semi-final in Week 1. They are 4 & 6 against the Top 8 and have won 2 of 5 against the Top 4. Brisbane remains in 6th spot with the 6th best attack, while their defence and differential both rank 5th. The Broncos are 10-12 ATS and have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 away games, but they have covered in 6 of their last 7 on the road as an underdog. Brisbane are split 11-11 in TMP’s, while 4 of their last 5 against the Top 8 have all gone Over. The Broncos have won 13 of 15 this season with a half time lead, but have lost 7 from 7 when trailing at the break and only once from their last 14 matches in Melbourne have they led at the break

Preview

The Storm have an outstanding record over the Broncos, basically when played anywhere, we were with them when the underdog some weeks ago and handing their opponent a toweling and nothing has changed. They have won 22 of the last 27 match ups, 17 of the last 20 and 11 of the last 13 in Melbourne, a powerful argument.

Yes the Broncos have won their last and their has been some positive signs, but this is an acid test against the current table leader. The Broncos of this time last year with that much ball would have won last week by near 50, yet they scored just the 1 try in the second half. But the wheels are turning in the right direction. I still worry about their authority (or lack of) in the middle, the scratchy form of Hunt and the quality (or depth) off their bench. I will be watching this game intently to see how they measure up.

I know in the end the Storm won comfortably enough last week, but had that have been anyone else mid table than the limp Eagles offering they were their to be beat. But, they now get a much better freshen up, week long Home prep and will be up for this against a major rival. I think at full strength they have an edge through the middle, and Bellamy was very clever pre and then during game pulling the Broncos apart on their left edge last time, I’m sure that will again be top of the menu here. Also, as has been his way through the last 10 weeks they will also play to their two key individual strengths on each wing with key kicking raids.

Storm come off two away games to then return home, they should improve further, expect they hard to beat here, well favoured and should cover.

Bet 2 units Storm -5.5 $1.91 William Hill / -6.0 Topsport


Eagles vs Raiders

+2.5 Eagles

 

Stats

The Raiders travel to Brookvale Oval to take on the Sea Eagles in what will be their final home game of the season. Manly has won 13 of the previous 17 clashes with the Raiders, including 8 of the last 10 meetings at Brookvale Oval. The Sea Eagles have now lost 3 in a row and have had a horror run with injuries, with only 3 other clubs having a longer playing list. Their win over the Sharks in Round 3 is their only win in 11 matches against the Top 8 and they have also lost 7 of their last 8 at home when starting as an outsider. The Sea Eagles are in 12th spot with an attack and defence that both rank 11th. They are 10-12 ATS and have covered in 6 of their last 8, but have failed to cover in 7 of their last 8 when getting a start at home. In TMP’s they are 12-10 in favour of the Under, while 4 of their last 5 at home have finished Over. The last 5 clashes with Canberra have also finished Over at an average of 55. A Manly try has been the 1st scoring play in 7 of the previous 8 clashes with the Raiders. The Raiders were given a scare last week before scoring 24 unanswered points against the Eels to extend their winning run to 8 consecutive matches. They have won 4 of their last 5 on the road and haven’t been beaten by a bottom 8 side since Round 10. They are now guaranteed a Top 4 finish and a possible top 2 finish is sure to keep them motivated. Canberra is the best attacking side in the NRL and along with their 7th ranked defence they have a differential that rates 4th. The Raiders are 14-8 ATS and have covered in their last 5 on the road, while they have also covered in the last 3 meetings with Manly. They are the Number 1 Overs side in the comp, producing a 16-6 result, with 10 of their last 12 finishing that way. The Raiders have scored the last try of the match in their last 7 matches and no side has scored more 2nd half points than the Raiders.

Preview

The Raiders long term record at this ground is poor winning just 2 of their last 10 here but for mine they get the right week to win, and likely win well.

I hate losing, and I hate losing 3 units on a bet, I can’t tell you how filthy I was first hearing the key 3 late team changes for the Eagles and then watching the insipid offering they put up against an opponent that was prime for a loss. They are rudderless in the halves, have muppets playing in the centres, Myles has been a terrible signing, I had given them the benefit of the doubt at wanting to still compete through to seasons end off their two prior efforts and close calls but the have now shown both with team selections and effort that they have put the white flag up. Coach Barrett has been one of the worst offenders all season long at naming make believe team lists on a Tuesday and then having numerous key late changes come game time, and I’m sure we will see this again this week, and those outs and changes will only weaken an already ordinary team list. The Storm scored 36, had they not come off such a physical game and 5 day turn around they’d have pumped 5 to 60 through quite easily so inept were their opponent.

The Raiders are a little on trust, difficult ground for them, off a few weeks of big wins and we saw some let down in the first 40 last week, but they have some significant resolve and belief right now that they can certainly step things up a gear when they wish (or if required). They have won 8 straight now and have momentum, they have depth, they have muscle and grunt through the middle in bucket loads and this will really work the Eagles over, and importantly they still have something to key playing for with 2nd spot available and the option of hosting a home semi final in week one (could you imagine that full house and atmosphere should that happen!).

All the stats suggest an overs play here being Raiders, day game and weak opponent, but I caution with all of rain that Sydney would have copped this ground is not a noted draining or great surface and chasing 46 might well be a major challenge – remembering that on a sunny dry track at home last week that game only just got to 46.

There may well be some slight risk with the Raiders of flatness and or this ground, but I want to be with them here and all of the key strengths and momentum that they have right now – up against a weak opponent. The Raiders just need to keep pumping through the middle, and play to their obvious strengths and the rest will happen, the Eagles will eventually roll over and this could see a significant score.

Update: Austin’s injury out is obviously not ideal, but against this side doesn’t overly concern me. I think they have strengths across the park, and can play to these with the #9, #7, #1 and then Williams stepping in, and anything like what the Eagles offered last week shouldn’t change things. Williams is also playing for a new contract with either club (Raiders and Eagles) and so will be keen to aim up.

Bet 3 units Raiders -5.5 $1.94 Crownbet BB


Titans vs Panthers

0.0 Titans

 

Stats

There will be plenty at stake when the Titans and Panthers go head to head on the Gold Coast in what shapes as 1 of the matches of the Round. A win for the Titans will see the Top 8 squared away with only the finishing positions to be finalized in the closing Round. The Panthers hold a slight all time advantage over the Titans, winning 8 of the 14 clashes and had won 4 straight before the Titans went back to back in the 2 most recent encounters. Wins on the glitter strip have been shared equally at 3 apiece, while the Titans will be looking for 3 consecutive wins over Penrith for the 1st time in their history. The Titans have lost just 1 of their last 6 but have been poor against their Top 8 counterparts, winning only 2 of 9. They have a 5-5-1 record at home this season and have won 3 of their last 4 as a favourite. The Titans have the 9th ranked defence, while their attack and differential both rank 8th . They have been an outstanding option ATS, covering in 16 of their 22 matches, while they have covered in 10 of their last 14 at CBus Stadium. In TMP’s they are 12-10 Under, with their last 4 finishing that way, while only 2 of their last 9 at home have totaled more than 40. The Titans have conceded the 1 st try in 8 of their 9 matches against a Top 8 opponent and they have also conceded the 1st try in the last 5 clashes with the Panthers. They have a perfect 8-0 win record when leading at half time, but have won only 2 of 9 when trailing at the break. The Panthers have now won 3 straight and 4 of their last 5, with their last 3 wins all having a margin of 20 points or more, but like the Titans, Penrith have struggled for wins against the Top 8 sides, winning only 3 of 10. They are currently 7th and are likely to still make the Finals even if they were to lose their final 2 matches. They have an attack that ranks 5th and a defence that rates 8th, giving them a 69 point differential that ranks 7th. The Panthers have a 5-6 record on the road in 2016, but have lost 7 of their last 9 matches played interstate, while they have lost 9 of their last 11 as a road outsider. They are 12-10 ATS, with a 4-3 cover record as a road dog and have covered in 3 of the last 4 clashes with the Titans. In TMP’s they are 12-10 Over, with 5 of their last 10 topping 50, while 4 of the 6 clashes with the Titans played on the Gold Coast have also totaled 50 or more. In 11 of the last 13 meetings, the winning margin has been by 13+, while the 1st try of the match has been scored by the 7th minute in 5 of the last 6 clashes.

Preview

Excellent game but tricky match up. Panthers on a positive roll but beating weak opponents, now assured of top 8 spot do they mentally relax? Titans have also had a couple of similar soft wins, best spine and team they have fielded this yr, must win game to play finals. Slight lean to the home teams desperation.

More to follow.


Sharks vs Roosters

-5.5 Sharks

 

Stats

Super Saturday draws to a close when the inform Roosters travel to the shire to take on the out of from Sharks. The Sharks have had the Roosters measure in recent seasons, winning 5 of the last 6 encounters and they will be hoping that trend continues as they look to end a 3 game losing streak. Cronulla’s 15 game winning run is now a distant memory, as is their 10 weeks on top of the ladder and they are now a real risk of missing a top 2 finish and a home Final. Their attack has been stuttering and they haven’t scored more than 3 tries in their last 4 matches, while they have conceded 30 points or more in 2 of their last 3. Despite their 3 losses, they still have the 2nd best attack and the 3rd best defence in the competition. They are 12-10 ATS but have failed to cover in their last 4, while they have also failed to cover in 6 of their last 8 as a home favourite. They are 12-10 Under in TMP’s, with a 7-4 Under record at home, while they are 12-7 Under since 2015 as a home favourite. The Roosters have won 3 of their last 4 and one wonders where their current form has been all season. They have averaged more than 28 points a game over the last month and conceded 8 points per game less than they had prior to that point. They have now moved to 14th on the ladder and are ranked 12th in both attack and defence. The Tri-Colours are 9-13 ATS and have covered in 3 of their last 4, but have failed to cover in the previous 6 clashes with the Sharks. In TMP’s they are 15-7 in favour of the Overs and have had Overs results in 6 of their last 8, while 7 of the last 9 meetings with Cronulla at Shark Park have totaled 31 or less.

Preview

Sharks have the shakes, they are a risk here, but going with them getting back home and digging deep. Not straight forward.

More to follow


Warriors vs Tigers

-9.5 Warriors

 

Stats

The fate of both of these sides lies in the hands of the Titans on Saturday afternoon and should they beat the Panthers, the Warriors and Tigers will have little to play for as both sides have terrible differentials when compared to that of the Panthers. Honours have been shared equally from the 26 matches played between the Warriors and Tigers, while the Warriors hold a slight edge at Mt Smart Stadium, winning 6 of the 10 match ups. The Warriors had won 3 straight before the Tigers won the last 2, including an upset result when they last met in Round 1. The Warriors have lost back to back matches leading into this game, conceding a combined total of 75 points, but they have won 4 of their last 5 at home, including 3 of their last 4 as a starting favourite. They remain in 9th spot, with an attack that ranks 9th and a defence that rates 14th. The Warriors are 10-12 ATS and have failed to cover in 4 of their last 5 at home as a favourite. They are 12-10 Over in TMP’s, while 7 of their last 9 have finished Unders. Meetings with the Tigers have generally been high scoring affairs, with the last 4 totaling 54 or more, while 11 of the last 14 have topped 42. The Warriors have won 5 of 6 with a half time lead this season, but have lost 11 of 13 when trailing at the break. Like the Warriors, the Tigers also come into this match off the back of 2 straight losses but the Tigers are on the road where they have won only 7 of their last 25 and 3 of their last 13 when playing in matches classed as distant away or interstate. They have also won only 3 of their last 14 as a road dog. The Tigers sit 1 spot below the Warriors in 10th and haven’t featured in the Top 8 since the opening 3 Rounds. They rank 10th in attack, while their defence is the 2nd worst in the NRL, conceding an average of 24 points a game. The Tigers are 12-10 ATS and have covered in only 3 of their last 10 on the road with a double digit advantage. In TMP’s they are 12-10 Over, while they are 20-10 Over since 2014 as a road dog and 9-3 Over since 2013 in distant away games. A Tigers try has been the 1st scoring play in 8 of the last 10 clashes with the Warriors.

Preview

Two impostors, Warriors at home but we know what they are like as 10 point expected favs. Tigers look mentally shot with Tedesco missing.

Just not a game I want to spend much time on, the Warriors still now have something to play for and could potentially grab 8th spot if they can win this and next week, but their record late each yr when such a carrot is dangled in front of them is disgraceful. As we know, when under expectation they more often than not fail. They have one of their strongest team lists here, and meet a Tigers team further riddled with key injury outs.

Warriors should win, all the numbers point to a high scoring game and overs, but I am just not convinced.


Knights vs Rabbits

-14.5 Knights

 

Stats

The final home game of the season for the Knights which makes it Old Boys weekend where they have traditionally been very good, winning 7 of the last 11, but with just 1 win all season and facing a resurgent Rabbitohs side, they look up against it here. They have lost their last 6 straight against the Rabbitohs, with the last 3 defeats all being by 40 points or more, while their last 5 losses have all been by a margin of 13+, with an average losing margin of 24.4. They have lost 16 in a row and another loss this week will move them into outright 7th on the all-time list for consecutive games lost. The Knights have the worst attacking and defensive records in the competition by some margin and they have conceded more than 100 tries for the 3rd season in a row. Newcastle is 8-14 ATS and has failed to cover in 5 of their last 6, while they have covered in only 5 of 16 this season with a double digit advantage. In TMP’s they are 12-10 Over, but have had Unders results in 4 of their last 6, while 6 of the last 7 clashes with the Bunnies have all finished Over. The Knights have conceded the 1 st try in 13 of their last 14 and have failed to score more than 6 1st points in their last 6 matches. Souths have won 2 in a row and will be looking for 3 straight victories for the 1st time this season. They remain in 13th spot and the best they can finish is 11th, which will be their lowest finish since 2008. The Rabbits have a 9- 13 record ATS but they have covered in their last 3 straight, while they have easily covered in their last 3 against the Knights. They have a TMP record of 13-9 in favour of the Overs, but have had Unders results in 5 of their last 7, while 6 of their last 7 against a bottom 8 opponent have all finished Over. Souths have won 6 of 7 this season with a half time lead and only once in their last 6 against the Knights have they not led at the break. The Rabbitohs have scored the 1st try of the 2nd half in the last 6 matches against the Knights who have scored 6 or less 2nd half points in 16 of their 22 matches. In FTS calculations, consider Alex Johnston as has scored 7 tries in his 3 matches against the Knights. The home side has lost the last 6 matches with Henry Perenara in charge.

Preview

Knights infamous Old Boys Day game where they can pull motivation and effort out of their backside, but gee they have major injury and form issues. By my count they will have at least 8 play outs for this game and be blooding another youngster with the key loss of Ross. They are no conceding an average of 34 points per game, even when playing at home this is still 32 pts, a terribly meek offering in defence.

Rabbits face their 3rd away game in 4 weeks and off Monday night but their form through these last 3 games reads very well with a win over Sharks, a flogging (away) over the Warriors and a late golden point loss (away) to the Storm. Having had their all but best team list back on deck McGuire looks to have also got their attitude back and we have now seen consistent smart efforts from them week in week out with them clearly determined to finish the season strongly.

While it might well be Old Boys day for the Knights I just can’t see how this young and damaged list can hold things together for longer than 20 minutes to compete. They have been showing signs each week now of falling apart, the Titans were scrappy at best last week yet still managed a 20 point margin and the Rabbits recent record against them has been very commanding winning their last 3 H2H by 40 point margins.

I want to be against the Knights, I have been somewhat conservative in marking this -14.5, could very easily have been much closer to -20, and I want to play the line.

Bet 2 units Rabbits -12.0 $1.93 Pinnacle


Eels vs Dragons

-7.5 Eels

 

Stats

The final ever game of MNF (at least until the next TV deal) sees the Parramatta Eels host the Dragons at Pirtek Stadium in a game that will have no bearing on the Top 8. There has been little between these sides over the years, with both sides recording 14 wins to go with 2 draws, while the Eels have a very good record at Pirtek Stadium, winning 9 of the 13 clashes. It’s the final home game of the season for the Eels who have won their last 3 matches against the Dragons. They have been poor at their traditional home ground in 2016 though, winning only 3 of 7, but that’s a better result than the Dragons record on the road, as they have won only 2 of 11. The Dragons have also failed to win at Pirtek Stadium since Round 1 of the 2010 season. The Eels have now dropped to 15th, losing 5 of their last 6 and they have conceded 22 points or more in all of those losses. They are 13-9 ATS and have covered in 7 of their last 10, but have covered in only 2 of their last 8 at Pirtek Stadium as a favourite. In TMP’s they are 13-9 Under, with an 8-3 Under record at home, while 11 of the previous 13 clashes with the Dragons have totaled 37 or less. The Dragons have lost 6 of their last 7 and will miss out on a spot in the finals for the 4th time in 5 years. They remain in 11th spot and haven’t sat higher than 8th all season. The Dragons rank 10th in attack, while both their defence and differential are the 2nd worst in the NRL. They have won 3 of 8 against sides ranked in the bottom half of the ladder and have lost the last 3 of those by a margin of 13+. In their last 7 matches they have averaged only 4 1st half points with a combined total of just 4 1st half tries. The Dragons are split evenly ATS, with an 11-11 record and are 4-7 when covering on the road, while they have covered in only 1 of their last 8 away from home with a start of 6 points or less. For the 5th time in the last 6 seasons, the Dragons have again been an Unders side and are 14-8 Under in 2016 with 2 Rounds to go, while 8 of their last 10 Monday night games have also finished Under. The Dragons will be pleased to see MNF come to an end as they have lost 11 of their last 12 Monday night fixtures.

Preview

Three important team changes for the Eels here Beau Scott, Brad Takairangi and Tepai Moeroa named as key ins, while  the Dragons drop Marshall and have Packer and Taane Milne as outs. The form line for either in not pretty with the Eels winning just 1 of their last 5 while the Dragons have won just 1 of their last 7, worse still the useless Dragons attack with them being held to 12 points of less in each of those 6 defeats.

The Dragons are a pathetic rabble, from Board to CEO to Coach, have nothing to play for and have been marking time as they slide down the ladder through recent months. The Eels have also had a season from hell but although losing have been committed and putting in each week, and it should be noted led the Raiders 18-4 in Canberra last week. With key players ins, back at home and an opportunity to put up a win in front of their die hard supporters I think they get their chance to win again.

Bet 2 units Eels -4.5 $1.91 William Hill


 

 


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NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting 2016 Round 25

Mr.G provides our NRL Tips Previews Sports Betting

Having coached at a senior level for 16 years including 3 years on the coaching staff of an NRL club Mr G is an avid student of the game. He’s coached sides to win titles at a senior level, run the football arm of a successful district club, managed professional players and worked in various development roles, so it’s fair to say the game of Rugby League is certainly in his blood and supports an experienced and unique offering.

Mr G’s NRL previews and betting tips combine this knowledge and ‘read’ of the current weekly form with a statistical and betting analysis to provide his followers with a unique and successful approach. He spends hours each week watching and reviewing each and every game assessing the strengths and weakness of the form to then weigh against that of the betting markets. His previews and betting tips have been published on the internet via two sports forums for 7 years prior to his public offering through Reading The Play.

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